Jason Mezrahi 
Quarterbacks (QB’s) are essential and less volatile than other positions in your lineup because they get so many opportunities to succeed each week. Not all QB’s are consistent, of course, but you won’t see many QB’s get pulled out of games at halftime or see their attempts fluctuate too wildly from one start to another. Typically, quarterbacks on losing teams perform better in fantasy than quarterbacks on winning ones. This makes sense because when teams are losing, they are going to adopt a more pass-heavy game plan in order to score as quickly as possible, and when they are winning, they will turn to the running game to drain the clock.
However, this fact doesn’t mean you should target every underdog quarterback over the favored ones. If the matchup looks great for a certain quarterback, you should take him even if he’s favored to win the game. The team may shut down the passing game with a lead later on, but they likely will have built that lead with a strong aerial attack. Game script matters, but not so much to keep you from taking a great matchup.
Ideally, you want a good QB on a team with a weak defense and no good RB’s. That way, the team will be down frequently in games and have to throw more often. Because fantasy points are all about accumulation, it doesn’t matter if his completion percentage is terrible, as long as he’s racking up yards and TD’s for you.
Mobile quarterbacks are great picks for DFS because they can rack up points for you in multiple ways. Passing yards are worth 0.04 pts/yard, but rushing yards are worth 2.5 times more at 0.1 pts/yard. So, if you’re choosing between two QB’s, you should take the one who might be able to get outside the pocket and break out for fifty yards rushing at some point during the game—if he does, that scramble would be worth five points for you. On good days, a dual-threat QB like Cam Newton will rush for eighty yards with a rushing TD, giving you a fourteen-point boost in addition to all his passing yards and TD’s.
Touchdowns are hard to predict on a week-to-week basis but there are certain factors we can look at with QB’s to help us predict who’s going to rack up TD’s that week. First, you can look at scoring rates. What percentage of the team’s scores come from the passing game? What percentage of the red-zone scores are through the air? Looking at scoring rates of both the quarterback’s offense and the defense he’s facing that week can give you an idea of how often he’ll get into the end zone.
As you choose your RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s, take a look at snap counts, touches, and targets per game. You want guys who are on the field, get handed the ball, and get thrown the ball a lot.
Snap totals are really important for offensive players. If a player is in a timeshare situation or is battling an injury that’s affecting his snaps each week, he may not be out there when the defense shows a weakness and the offensive coordinator figures out how to exploit it. You might have a guy in a new system who hasn’t won over his coaches yet, or is dealing with a nagging injury, or is just getting outplayed by somebody else at his position.
