NICOLAU V PEREZ
After a week-long break from the electric UFC 300 card, we are back in Las Vegas for another UFC Fight Night. This card will feature 13 fights that will end with a bout between two fighters looking to break into the top 5 of the flyweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 91 Nicolau vs Perez.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Caio Machado v Don’Tale Mayes
Machado is coming off a loss in his UFC debut late last year and in my opinion could not be in a better bounce back spot against Don’Tale Mayes. Machado gave a good account of himself in his UFC debut, even when coming in as a +270 underdog. He outstruck Mick Parkin quite significantly and lost a 29-28 decision simply because of Parkin’s control time in rounds 1 and 2.
Mayes lost three of his last four fights, with his only win coming against a 44-year-old Andrei Arlovski last year. Mayes really doesn’t have a lot going for him in this matchup. Machado is by far the better striker, with a 6.57 SLpM (Strikes Landed per Minute) rate in the UFC/DWCS, while Mayes has a 3.60 SLpM rate. Mayes (3.84) also has a worse SApM (Strikes Absorbed per Minute) rate compared to Machado (1.87).
Machado also holds an 82% takedown defence rate, so Mayes will struggle a lot if he tries to take the fight to the ground.
Even if Mayes succeeds in bringing the fight to the ground, Machado has gotten a couple of armbar victories in his career.
Look for Machado to establish his striking game early with quick strikes up the middle that will keep Mayes on the back foot for the whole fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Caio Machado UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
James Llontop vs Chris Padilla
Both Llontop and Padilla are making their UFC debuts, and for Llontop, Padilla is the third opponent he was supposed to face on this card. With both of Llontop’s first two opponents, Gabe Green and Lando Vannata pulling out.
Llontop is coming off an impressive decision win on the Dana White Contender Series, where he secured two knockdowns, nearly seven minutes of control time and was given 10-8’s by two judges as he cruised to a decision win.
Although Llontop is a vicious striker with many knockouts, I would recommend having Llontop as a Double Chance (KO/Decision) just to be safe.
His opponent, Chris Padilla, has put together some decent performances on the regional scene, but he has not done enough in his career to truly earn the UFC bout. He is very much a beneficiary of Gabe Green pulling out on eight days’ notice. I wouldn’t overthink this one; Llontop is in a great spot here.
MY UFC DFS PICK: James Llontop by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Jhonota Diniz vs Austen Lane
Austen Lane is an absolute fraud. Last year, he was flatlined by Justin Tafa, of all people, in less than one round. In that fight, he showed that he was not ready for the UFC. Lane was throwing looping shots, leaving his chin undefended, and the way he was moving around the cage was tiring himself out. Lane, especially at 36 years of age, is going to be in a tough position to make an impact in this fight.
His opponent Diniz is 6-0-0 after a clean first-round knockout last year on the Dana White Contender Series after a successful career as a Kickboxer. Diniz has a great opportunity here in his UFC debut against I fight that I believe shouldn’t even be in the UFC. His technique is solid, and he has great crosses and hooks. I think Diniz will catch Lane early with a headshot and finish the fight from there.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jhonota Diniz FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez
Nicolau is coming into this fight as a pretty clear favorite at -180. He is coming off a loss last year to Brandon Royval, which was essentially a title eliminator, as Royval then went on to fight against Alexandre Pantoja for the Flyweight belt. Now, Nicolau is back and is looking to make the climb back up.
For his first fight back since the Royval loss, he’s matched up with former title challenger Alex Perez, who lost his last two fights following his loss in the Championship bout against Deiveson Figueredo nearly three years ago. Perez has lost to strong competition from Muhammad Mokaev and Alexandre Pantoja, but I think he will really struggle against Nicolau. In Perez’s last two fights, he was taken down with ease and struggled to put up any real offence. He was on the back foot for both fights and will find himself in a similar position for this fight. Look for Nicolau to establish the grappling game early with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (Nicolau is a Black Belt) and either grind out a decision with heavy control time or find the second-round finish via submission.
Manel Kape was supposed to fight Matheus Nicolau in a rematch for tonight’s main event but pulled out of the fight. So, Perez is coming in on short notice.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Matheus Nicolau UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Ketlen Souza to win via Decision -105
James Llontop (Double Chance KO/DEC) -320
Jhonota Diniz -300
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Jhonota Diniz to win via KO and Under 1.5 Rounds -188
- Matheus Nicolau (Double Chance Submission or Decision) -115
