UFC 291
POIRIER V GAETHJE 2
We’re back state-side for a massive PPV card coming all the way from Salt Lake City! Today’s fights will kick off at 6:30 PM ET. Lots of big matchups and top talent will be displayed on tonight’s card, it’s one you definitely won’t want to miss! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights ending with a long-awaited rematch for the now vacant BMF championship belt. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 291 Poirier vs Gaethje 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Alex Pereira vs Jan Blachowicz
By all metrics this one is close. Both are strike-first fighters who have an underdeveloped ground game and both have a similar frame and reach. Where these two differ is that throughout his UFC career, Pereira has had a much higher Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) rate and can effectively use his kicks in a way that the former champ Blachowicz won’t be able to match. Another interesting point in this fight is that Pereira is making his Light Heavyweight debut and this fight will essentially be a title eliminator with the Light Heavyweight champ Jamahal Hill vacating his title after a serious achilles injury. There’s a lot on the line for both of these fighters and I think under the pressure, Pereira will have a significantly higher output and will have stronger cardio.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Pereira UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD ROUND KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trevin Giles
Trevin Giles has been the king of luck as of late, after a surprise decision win against Louis Cosce where he almost blew away the fight in the third round, he cut it even closer with a split decision win over Preston Parsons. Neither Cosce or Parsons are on the same level as undefeated Brazilian rising-star Gabriel Bonfim who is coming off a first-round submission win earlier this year against Mounir Lazzez. Ultimately, Giles has been very inconsistent throughout his UFC career and Bonfim has been nothing short of spectacular. This fight is a tale of two different trajectories and I see this being another winnable stepping stone for Bonfim on the road to the top rankings of the UFC.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Gabriel Bonfim FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro
Here we have the hard-hitting Kopylov against the hard-hitting Claudio Ribeiro. One thing is definitely for certain in this matchup, there will be a lot of fireworks. Both Kopylov and Ribeiro’s strike differentials tell a similar story. Both of these fighters are willing to trade in the pocket if it means getting a chance at the knockout. The big thing that sets Kopylov apart in my mind is his strength of schedule. As Ribeiro dropped his UFC debut to Abdul Razak Alhassan which he followed up with a strong performance against Joseph Holmes, Kopylov is coming off two strong finishes of Alessio Di Chirico and a monster side kick against Punahele Soriano which earned Kopylov a performance of the night bonus earlier this year. Both of these fighters will rack up a lot of Daily Fantasy points but Kopylov in particular has a clear edge when it comes to speed and durability, I’m expecting a big performance out of him tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Roman Kopylov SECOND-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Dustin Poirier 5 ROUNDER (I am taking Dustin but I do want to mention that the increased elevation in Utah may play a factor in some fights including this one when it comes to gas tank. Poirier trains at a relatively low elevation environment in Florida and Gaethje trains at a very high elevation in Colorado. Not going to change my full read on this fight but something to consider.)
Bobby Green (Unfortunately, I think Tony’s best days are behind him. If you are looking for a possible underdog option, his name should definitely be in the mix)
Kevin Holland
Marcos Rogerio de Lima FADE (There is a lot of value in Lewis as an underdog and for Daily Fantasy, I think he’s a solid choice with a path to victory. My favorite bet for this fight is betting on the fight to go the distance at +365)
Jake Matthews
CJ Vergara
Matthew Semelsberger
Miranda Maverick
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Kevin Holland -150
Roman Kopylov +120
Gabriel Bonfim to Win via Submission or Decision (Double Chance) +110
