NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 16

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their Holidays thus far and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS GPP Week 16 slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

**This article is not meant to tell you about how good of a spot Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Le’Veon Bell are in. They’re arguably in one of the best spots they’ve been in all year and I’d never tell you to fade that. If the Chiefs are the core of your GPP lineups, you’re probably in a great spot.**

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. DeShaun Watson – This game against Cincinnati is likely to be an ugly shootout with very little defense. The AETY Model loves this game’s ability to go well over the current total of 44 points and provide plenty of fantasy upside.
   
   To start, the Bengals’ defense is trash. Secondly, DeShaun Watson has one of the highest floors and ceilings in all of fantasy football. Lastly, you can run a Texans’ stack back with so so many value options such as: Gio Bernard, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green (the AETY Model’s top value plays).
   
   At home, in the dome, let’s get some DeShaun Watson exposure.
   
   Possible Gamestack:
   Watson – David Johnson – Brandin Cooks – Gio Bernard – Tee Higgins
   
2. Brandon Allen – It’s disgusting, but this is a prime matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and an even better price of $4,800 on DraftKings. We mentioned earlier how much AETY loves the value plays of Gio Bernard, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green… we kinda need to like Brandon Allen then as well.
   
   Better yet, the Texans defense is going to be the highest owned defense on this slate. Let’s use Brandon Allen and a value play or two on the Bengals side and shove that leverage down all of the chalk donkeys who play Houston’s defense. No more playing games, it’s Week 16.
   
   You can afford the world by doing this as well… go get your Chiefs’ studs or whatever game you really want exposure to.
   
3. Russell Wilson – Remember the last time the Rams and Seahawks matched up in Week 10 and every fantasy relevant skill player was 15% or higher in ownership? Well, that matchup let a lot of people down and now with Mahomes and the Chiefs in such a good spot, it appears this game is going to go way under the radar.
   
   If you’re going to let me play a 1-5% owned Russell Wilson at home in a meaningful game, I’m all for it.
   
4. Jared Goff – Do not forget about the value in Jared Goff on the other side of this Seahawks game. The Seahawks’ secondary has improved significantly, but they’re still bottom-10 in pass defense DVOA. With Cam Akers out, the AETY Model thinks Darrel Henderson is an easy fade and that the Rams drop back to pass over 40 times on Sunday. Do not expect McVay and company to come out flat again this week.
   
   You know who to play in your Seattle/Rams stacks.
   
   Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

1. Melvin Gordon – I’m all in on Melvin Gordon this week without Phillip Lindsay in the lineup. Revenge game narrative, a matchup with an awful Chargers’ defense, and overall, Melvin has been quite effective with the football of late. Let’s roll.
   
2. Miles Sanders – Sanders and Chubb are the most talented running backs on this slate and they’re both significantly lower in ownership than guys like David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler. Sanders’ will be the feature of the Philadelphia offense on Sunday against a Dallas defense missing two of the best run stoppers. He’s going to run wild.
   
3. Nick Chubb – With all of the Browns’ players out due to COVID-19, Chubb may literally get 30 touches despite being in a bit of a timeshare with Kareem Hunt. Hunt is probably the best wide receiver on this active Browns’ roster… maybe he’ll spend most of his day lined up outside and leave the majority of the backfield duties to Nick Chubb.
   
4. Giovani Bernard – Just here for Bengals’ value pieces, lol. After getting 25 carries last week, I trust that Gio is Zac Taylor’s bellcow for the rest of this season. Houston’s defense is hot garbage so let’s take the over in this game and get some value pieces in our lineups. I certainly don’t like Bernard as much on FanDuel as I do on DraftKings for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.
   
   Honorable Mention: Kareem Hunt
   
   *I don’t need to discuss David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler. Remember: read the cash game article first… those guys are all elite plays this week and will be VERY popular.*

Wide Receivers

1. Allen Robinson – 30% target share against the worst secondary in the NFL. The Bears are in a must-win game and will not mess around here against Jacksonville. Robinson is a lock for 8+ targets and offers a lot of red-zone equity.
   
2. Cooper Kupp – this game is going to shootout a bit and I love Kupp’s splits against this Seattle defense. With no Cam Akers, the AETY Model says Kupp is in line for 10+ targets on Sunday. I’m definitely skeptical with that volume projection, but when in doubt, trust the numbers and trust this matchup against Seattle’s secondary.
   
3. Tee Higgins – He is a wide receiver one going up against Vernon Hargreaves priced like a low-end WR2. No need to overthink this one.
   
4. AJ Green – will also see plenty of Hargreaves and is just way too cheap on DraftKings for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
   
5. Sammy Watkins – I don’t ever love Watkins, but if Tyreek Hill is a little banged up, Watkins is a great source for cheap, low-owned exposure to the best offense in the NFL.
   
   Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce
   
2. Mark Andrews – Only one on this slate with the ceiling of Travis Kelce.
   
3. Zach Ertz – While everyone goes to Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz is seeing plenty of snaps and targets at a career-low price… I’ll take a shot on Ertz with this banged up Dallas defense.
   
4. Hayden Hurst – Cheapest run back on the other side of your Kansas City stacks. Tight ends have had some big games against this Kansas City secondary and we don’t need much from Hurst at this price point.
   
   Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, Dallas Goedert

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as multiple sports are now live!