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Home / Archives for March 20, 2024
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March 20, 2024

NHLSports BettingHockey

NHL Top Bets – Mar 21

Richard Masana
written by Richard Masana

Welcome back to NHL Top Bets. It may be the start of March Madness, but we also have some hockey madness as well. Tonight, there are eleven games on the schedule. The people made it known they wanted expanded NHL betting content, Win Daily listened and we have you covered below.

As always, think for yourself. The information below is only meant to supplement your knowledge and if you don’t agree with a portion, that’s fine, we’re all entitled to our own opinions. Also be sure to scour as many sportsbooks as possible before placing a bet as the odds tend to vary a little in most circumstances.

Aside from reading this 3/21 NHL Top Bets article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.

Personal Betting Record/Tracker

3/21 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

*All odds below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*

3/21 NHL Bets

Detroit Red Wings ML (-112) – DraftKings – 1 Unit

Listing this bet really kills me, but you have to be objective and emotionless if you want to get ahead and make money in the betting game. The Islanders could not be any worse at the moment. They had won six straight games to put themselves into one of the final playoff spots before conceding all of that ground back after losing five straight games. It must be noted that only one of those five losses was even close. Otherwise, they were shut out by the Sabres and Kings 3-0 and 4-0 and smoked by the Rangers and Hurricanes 5-2, and 4-1. They’ve totaled only six goals in their last five games; rough.

Detroit hasn’t been all that much better recently as they are 2-8 over their last ten games. However, both of those wins have come in the last three games. They have also scored at least three goals in each of those three games. Furthermore, these are two teams with defined home and road splits. The Islanders are far worse on the road (14-15-1) than at home (15-19-10) so at a minimum can take games to overtime more frequently with the crowd support. Meanwhile, the Red Wings are 20-11-5 at home and 15-17-1 away.

These odds initially struck me as if this game was in New York. My expectation is that there will be more separation and Detroit odds will be much shorter by game time. On FanDuel, the Red Wings are already at -120. Particularly if Dylan Larkin makes his return. As an Islanders fan, I just have to keep it real.

Winnipeg Jets ML (-120) – FanDuel – 1 Unit

This is a tale as old as time of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Jets are 7-3 over their last ten games and the Devils are the opposite at 3-7. While Winnipeg is trending up for the playoffs, it will be a letdown year for New Jersey after last year’s playoff appearance and the promise that displayed.

The Jets absolutely smashed the Devils both times they have met this season, dropping six goals against New Jersey in both of those games. Both teams have performed about the same record wise away and at home. Overall, they have won five of their last seven against New Jersey, flexing some dominance.

Winnipeg’s defense has been the best in the NHL this season and should be the difference here. The Devils have scored only one goal in three of their last five games. New Jersey has already sold off and should be the less motivated of these two teams.

At the moment, FanDuel is giving us the best odds on the Jets of any of the major sportsbooks by a slim margin.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at NHL – WIN DAILY® (windailysports.com)

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NBADaily Fantasy SportsBasketball

NBA DraftKings Top Tier Plays Mar 20

Shaun Evans
written by Shaun Evans

Welcome to our new NBA DraftKings Top Tier Plays article. I’ll go tier by tier to break down my favorite play from each one. I’ll also note which ones you can pivot to for any multiple-entry contests you play. Make sure that you check out the NBA Player Projections for the tier slate to get the upper hand on your opponents.

NBA DraftKings Tiers 1-2

Domantas Sabonis over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum (Tier 1)

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the highest projected player in this tier (the slate also), Domantas Sabonis is the one I want to go after. He has a great matchup versus Toronto and has logged 50 consecutive double-doubles. That’s a bonus stat for DraftKings. Sabonis recorded 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 11 assists in his first meeting versus Toronto. He could even reach a triple-double once again tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander does not have the same triple-double upside but he is capable of recording a double-double. His matchup is perfect against Utah and he should be able to hit his value tonight.

Damian Lillard over Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (Tier 2)

The Tier 2 group was reduced with Donovan Mitchell being ruled out. Now we’re down to two Phoenix Suns players and Damian Lillard. I’ll be rolling with Damian Lillard tonight but mainly for his ownership. He is projected for 42.13 DK points while Kevin Durant is projected for 46.92 DK points and Devin Booker is projected for 45.86. Durant would ultimately be the best option out of the three. Lillard has been playing pretty good basketball recently though. He has averaged 24.2 points, 10.8 assists, and five rebounds in his last five. Boston is a good defensive team but Lillard has had the hot hand recently and I’ll be rolling with it.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

NBA DraftKings Tiers 3-4

Tyrese Haliburton over De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Maxey, Steph Curry, and Bam Adebayo (Tier 3)

Another core piece for the DFS main slate is Tyrese Haliburton. Not only is the matchup perfect versus the Detroit Pistons, Haliburton is the third-highest projected player tonight. He comes in with a 53.68 DK projection. He has averaged 21.7 points, 13 assists, and three rebounds in three games versus Detroit this season. While his play has dipped recently, this should be his bounce-back spot. Similar to the main slate article, I’ll be avoiding De’Aaron Fox tonight. Bam Adebayo will be going up against Cleveland and I’ll be avoiding that matchup. While Steph Curry gets the Memphis Grizzles, I want to roll with Tyrese Maxey next versus Phoenix. He is projected for 45.73 DK points tonight.

Jaren Jackson Jr. over Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Paul George, and Jaylen Brown (Tier 4)

Jaren Jackson Jr. pops very well tonight out of the Tier 4 group. Kawhi Leonard is the only player that projects higher than him and that’s with 43.41 DK points. Jackson Jr. projects for 42.93 and should also have lower ownership. The Warriors allow centers to average 22.6 points and 14.7 rebounds per game. There is potential for a double-double bonus for him but it may also be a tough mountain to get to. I would roll with Kawhi Leonard mainly following Jaren Jackson Jr. For James Harden and Paul George, their projections are a tad too low even though they get the Portland Trailblazers tonight.

We have launched the all-new PropBetter tool for our Premium users and you do not want to miss out on it. It covers the main Sportsbooks and allows you to find the edge for player props for each book. It’s a one-stop shop for you so you don’t have to go on a scavenger hunt to find the best place to place your money!

NBA DraftKings Tiers 5-6

Desmond Bane over Kristaps Porzingis, Jarrett Allen, Deandre Ayton, and Darius Garland (Tier 5)

We get a pretty interesting Tier 5 tonight and two players pop out. First up is Desmond Bane and he projects as the sixth-highest scorer tonight. Bane is averaging 23.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in his last five games with one steal. He gets a Warriors team that allows 24 points, eight assists, and 5.5 rebounds to the guard position. He’s the number one target for this group. Next up is Darius Garland who will be without Donovan Mitchell once again. Garland is projected for 36.96 DK points. While that seems low, his usage rate jumps from 25% to 29.2% without Mitchell on the court. He averages 22 points, 6.5 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game.

Chet Holmgren over Pascal Siakam, Anfernee SImons, Jusuf Nurkic, and the entire tier (Tier 6)

Chet Holmgren and Pascal Siakam top the Tier 6 category. You could even look at Derrick White who has a good matchup versus Milwaukee. But starting with Holmgren, he is projected for 40.59 DK points tonight versus Utah. Utah is allowing opposing centers to average 23.6 points and 14.1 rebounds. He has faced Utah three times this season and is averaging 17.7 points, seven rebounds with 3.3 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. While the offensive numbers aren’t the best, Chet’s defensive skills give him the added boost.

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NBA DFS Core Plays And Best Bets Mar. 20

Shaun Evans
written by Shaun Evans

Hump day it is and we get an eight-game NBA DFS slate. There will be more to look into and where to find the plays. I’ll break down my core plays alongside my value plays. I’ll go over which game I’m targeting out of the five and why. On top of that, I’ll drop my two favorite bets for tonight’s action while using the brand-new Propbettor tool!

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Domantas Sabonis $10,700 – 54.93 DK Points – 5.13 Value Rating

Domantas Sabonis is a locked double-double bonus player as he now has 50 consecutive. It shouldn’t end tonight as he faces the Toronto Raptors. Sabonis recorded 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 11 assists in their first meeting. On the season, he’s averaging 22 points with 15.4 rebounds per game and 38.4 minutes. The two teams do play at a fast pace which should give Sabonis enough time to hit his value but also exceed it.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Jake LaRavia $4,600 – 33.40 DK Points – 7.26 Value Rating

Jake LaRavia has been playing some consistent basketball lately and his price tag of $4.6k is one to go after. LaRavia averaged 12 points, 4.4 rebounds, two assists, and 1.8 steals in his last five games, He has increased his season average in that span. He has also scored 12 or more points in four of his last five games. LaRavia should have some good opportunities tonight versus the Golden State Warriors and their second unit. They currently allow power forwards to average 23.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game.

Tyrese Haliburton $8,900 – 53.68 DK points – 6.03 Value Rating

Getting Tyrese Haliburton right is a challenge at times but versus Detroit, he should be locked in. Haliburton has dipped slightly in his last five games, averaging 16.6 points, 10 assists, and 5.4 rebounds. With him facing the Detroit Pistons, he should get back on track. He has averaged 21.7 points, 13 assists, and three rebounds in three games this season. Indiana continues to play at the second-fastest pace with 105.5 possessions per game. They had 97 possessions in their last game which is something that shouldn’t happen again.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Jordan Nwora $3,800 – 26.73 DK points – 7.03 Value Rating

Jordan Nwora should be in line for some good work versus Sacramento tonight. They are one of the worst teams at guarding the small forward position, allowing them to average 23.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. Nwora has been scoring consistently also as he has scored 12 or more points in his last three games. He averaged 11.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.2 steals in his last five. Running Domantas Sabonis and Tyrese Haliburton together may be difficult but adding Jordan Nwora to the lineup will help with salary.

Stanley Umude $3,900 – 24.67 DK Points – 6.33 Value Rating

Stanley Umude is projected to get the start once again tonight and if so, his $3.9k price tag is lovely. Umude recorded 10 points, six rebounds, and one assist in 34 minutes Monday versus Boston. He recorded 17.7 DK points. Indiana hasn’t been the best when it comes to guarding the forward position. They’ve allowed 23.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. Allow Stanley Umude another 34-minute game and he should be able to top his Monday performance versus a much faster team.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Sacramento Kings (-625) versus Toronto Raptors (+455) – Total 233 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Sacramento Kings allow games to stay close when they shouldn’t and with a spread of 11 points tonight, I believe this game stays close. Domantas Sabonis is already a no-brainer with his productivity. We can also work in some good value around him, to not go punting for scrubs. Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray come in pretty affordable for a Sacramento stack. Both players hold values of 5.60 (Barnes) and 5.77 (Murray). While I am a huge fan of De’Aaron Fox, I will be avoiding him tonight.

Not a single Toronto Raptors player comes in above $6.5k. Kelly Olynyk is the highest-priced one at $6.5k. Jordan Nwora pops out as the strongest candidate to be rostered with his 7.03 value rating. Jontay Porter comes in projected for 26.84 points and a 6.71 value rating. Three of the five starters are held under the 5.00 value rating and those are Bruce Brown, Gradey Dick, and Gary Trent Jr.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

We have launched the all-new PropBetter tool for our Premium users and you do not want to miss out on it. It covers the main Sportsbooks and allows you to find the edge for player props for each book. It’s a one-stop shop for you so you don’t have to go on a scavenger hunt to find the best place to place your money!

Domantas Sabonis over 8.5 Assists +116 (FD Sportsbook)

We’ve already broken down Domantas Sabonis versus Toronto with our core plays. He has an edge of 2.6% to hit the over on his assist prop. He’s projected near 8.71. In his first meeting with Toronto, Sabonis recorded 11 assists. He should be able to duplicate his first performance once again tonight.

Isaac Okoro under 14.5 Points + Rebounds -120 (FD Sportsbook)

Isaac Okoro has been struggling to hit this prop lately as he has missed it in his last three games. Okoro is averaging 14 points and rebounds total in his last five overall. Miami is also one of the more difficult teams for guards to face this season. Mixing Okoro’s recent performances and Miami’s defense gives him an edge of 6.64% to hit the under.

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NBA Player Prop Win Rates for Mar. 20

WIN
written by WIN

Each day we will be displaying the players and props that show the highest win rates of their current prop line at the time of posting. For example, if a player is listed with a win rate of 90% on “over 4.5 rebounds,” that means that in 9 out of the last 10 games they went over 4.5 rebounds. We’re doing some of the legwork for you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re suggesting to bet all of these. You still need to factor in match ups and other relevant information, and keep in mind that the hit rate is based on the current line at the time of posting, and is subject to change.

These are the highest percentage win rates of the top NBA player props today.

These are the highest rated win rates over the past 10 games but to see the highest edges based on our proprietary player projections click here.

Now to see the hand selected NBA player prop bets from our betting pros check them out here.

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March MadnessCollege BasketballSports Betting

NCAA March Madness Betting: First Four Games

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

The NCAA tournament begins tonight in Dayton with the first set of First Four games being played. However, the Madness started last week as we saw an insane amount of upsets in the Conference Tournaments. Bid stealers, as some would call them, left some prominent teams home. While I say the difference between the 68th and 69th team doesn’t make a significant impact on the overall tournament, it is fun to debate. And the simple fact that the Big East got just 3 teams in the dance is laughable. Not as bad as FSU not making the playoffs in College Football but not too far away.

We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 67 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you manage the unit size you bet. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar. So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.

ARTICLE UPDATE: WEDNESDAY MARCH 19th Games Added. Results from Day 1 is +0.45 units.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 19th – DAYTON, OH (2 Games)

Game 3: #16 Grambling State Tigers at #16 Montana State Bobcats (Midwest Region 640pm)

Well Howard made a heck of a run at it late in the game yesterday to almost pull off a historic comeback. But they fell just short, literally speaking as all three of their final attempts to tie the game fell woefully short. But for a “Fun Bet” at 0.5 units, I got the price of admission. Speaking of admission, I feel like I struggle in 16 seed vs 16 seed matchups every year. So take this one for what it’s worth. Or maybe give it some extra juice as I’m bound to hit one!

Grambling State comes in this game on a significant hot streak. They started the season 2-10 and finished with a 20-14 record. Of late, GSU is 9-1 in their last 10 games with the only loss coming in double OT versus Alabama State. The Tigers finished first in their conference and ran away from each team in the Southwestern Athletic Conference to claim their first ever NCAA appearance. The issue with the Tigers is that they don’t do anything particularly well. On offense, they rank in the bottom 10% of the nation in scoring. The only thing that stands out is they get to the line, and Montana State will help them with that. But they’re FT% is just 112th in the nation.

As for Montana State, the Bobcats are a prolific offensive team ranking in the top 65 in effective FG%, 2-pt FG% and 3-pt FG%. And defensively they create turnovers with a top 50 steal percentage. And Grambling State will cough it up as they rank 344th in TO%.

I’m going back to the well and taking the more profound shooting team in a 16 seed matchup. Hopefully this one will give it a little more legs to get us to the window and cash us a ticket before the real games start.

PICK: Montana State -4.5 over Grambling State (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

Game 4: #10 Colorado Buffalo at #10 Boise State Broncos (South Region 910pm)

I know this is hoops but imagine this matchup on the gridiron. Coach Prime dressed in all white bubble jacket standing out on the Blue Field of Boise State. Sitting there shining like the star he is in a place known for ruggedness and being the Cinderella story. Well maybe for another year, but hopefully Deion makes an appearance in Dayton tonight to give the Buffalo’s some added juice, and flair.

Colorado was on the bubble coming into the Pac 12 tournament. Then three straight wins and an appearance in the last ever Pac 12 Championship game was enough for the committee to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. In fact, they won eight straight games at the end of the season before losing to Oregon on Sunday. I love their shooting prowess, as they are 5th best in the NCAA with a 39.4% three-point percentage. They are led by guard KJ Simpson who will play every minute and do it effectively, scoring 19.6 ppg. They also have a big force in the middle in Eddie Lampkin who will undoubtedly post you up and try a multitude of spin moves. From inside to out, this team is solid and there’s a good reason they’re 25th in KenPom’s rankings.

Boise on the other hand, bowed out in the first round of the MWC tournament. But they got in based on their resume, making this the 5th appearance under Head Coach Leon Rice. However, they’ve yet to win one NCAA tourney game in his tenure. This one will be even more special, as his son G Max Rice is a senior and playing his last season. The Broncos play at a slow pace and have a solid defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from 3, good for 23rd best in the country. They also have size and a big front line that causes issues at the rim.

I’m going with the unconventional pick here and the Boise State Broncos. I saw Oregon dominate the paint against Colorado. Lampkin is big but has just 5 blocks all season. Boise is a good rebounding team and doesn’t give up extra shots. Additionally, the Buffs haven’t beat anyone in KenPom’s top 42 all year. The Broncos have 6 wins against such competition. I’ll ride with the Mountain West once again as they are out to prove to everyone how good of a conference they truly were this year. And plus, I like the dad and son combination going for one last win (or maybe more).

PICK: Boise St +3.5 over Colorado (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

TUESDAY MARCH 19th – DAYTON, OH (2 Games)

Game 1: #16 Wagner Seahawks at #16 Howard Bison (West Region 640pm)

Who doesn’t love a good battle between one-word universities. Simple yet profound and proud, both Wagner and Howard had to pull off several upsets to win their respective conferences. For Howard, they started the year 5-11 but found something midseason to finish strong with 13 wins in their last 18 games. Per KenPom.com, they struggle protecting the ball ranking 354th out of 362 teams in TO%. But they crash the boards well (39th in OReb% in NCAA) and get to the line often with the 11th highest FT rate in the country. The other thing they do well is shoot the three, led by G Marcus Dockery who shot over 41% from behind the arc in over 200 attempts.

Wagner on the other hand got to Dayton with bully ball. In the three games in the NEC tournament, they held their opponents to a combined 35.3% shooting and outrebounded them 116 to 95 (average of +7 per game). It’s been their recipe for success all year as they allow just over 62 points per game which is top 10 in the nation. The problem is, they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 353rd in effective FG%. They also struggle at the FT line shooting just 70% (249th).

Wagner wants to win with defense and playing at a slow pace. In the end, I think Howard will have enough offense to get their first ever NCAA Tournament win. That will send them to Charlotte to face #1 UNC on Thursday.

PICK: Howard -3 over Wagner (FUN BET / 0.5 units)

RESULT: LOSS / -0.55 units

Game 2: #10 Colorado State Rams at #10 Virginia Cavaliers (Midwest Region 910pm)

The Mountain West Conference landed 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. And tonight, we’ll get to see one of those teams play and gauge how good their conference really was. For one, I love the top teams in the MWC and think several can make it to the second weekend. I do question the bottom half, including the Rams, and how they compare to other teams that were left out.

But simply put, this is a great matchup for Colorado State. The Virginia Cavaliers come into this game with one of the worst offenses in college basketball. As typical of a Cavs team, they play excellent defense and try to bleed the clock on offense to minimize possessions. But the thing that stands out to me is that they have been bludgeoned by good teams, losing games to Duke by 25, Wisconsin by 24 and UNC by 10 (Va Tech beat them by 34 but they’re not a “good” team). The only teams they beat in KenPom’s top 35 were Florida, Clemson and Wake. And that was by a combined 6 points. Overall, Virginia is just 2-7 in Quad 1 games.

On the other hand, Colorado State has 6 wins against teams in the tournament this year. They are 6-7 in Quad 1 games in NCAA this season. Their pace is solid and they shoot the ball very efficiently (32nd in Effective FG%). CSU also has a significant advantage at the FT line, as they shoot 75.4% from the charity stripe (54th in NCAA) and Virginia shoots just 63.7% (355th). That’s important in these closely contested games.

We’ve seen some money movement as this line opened at -1.5 and is now at -2.5. My simple model says this should be at -3.5. So, I’ll lean on the above metrics and take the more well-rounded in the Rams to pull this one off. If so, they will head over to Charlotte to matchup with #7 seeded Texas in a very winnable game.

PICK: Colorado St -2.5 over Virginia (NORMAL BET / 1.0 units)

RESULT: WIN / +1.0 Units

TOURNAMENT BETTING RECORD: 1-1 / +0.45 units

To be posted by 10am Wednesday March 19th

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Valspar Championship Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the Valspar Championship, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of the Copperhead course, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a g...

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Valspar Championship Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Scoring on The Snake Pit could be key in our Valspar Championship preview

Last year, we successfully tipped Taylor Moore at 70/1 for our preview of the 2023 Valspar Championship. Let’s find the winner at the Copperhead course again this week!

The Players Championship absolutely lived up to its billing last week, producing perhaps the most enthralling tournament of the PGA Tour season thus far. It was another great week for our selections as well. We tipped Brian Harman at 80/1 who finished just one shot off Scottie Scheffler. He locked in a full place at +1600 and a Top 20 at +275. Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 wound up in 6th, cashing a full place at +700. As sexy as picking the outright winner of a golf tournament is, both of those plays had better returns than picking the World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler.

We then went 5/6 for our main selections in the Round 4 matchups. Although disappointing to just miss a huge multi at around +4000, it was again a fabulous return on our 2 Ball best bets.

Alongside all our Valspar Championship betting tips, we have a preview with some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are already delivering great closing line value.

Jump in and grab an annual membership with a MASSIVE 50% off!
Select an annual membership with exclusive PROMO code “DEEPDIVEDEAL” at check-out when you join at this link.

Copperhead Course Analysis

Certainly, this golf course is no pushover and a comprehensive preview is imperative if we are to find the winner of the Valspar Championship in back-to-back years.

The only holes that played under par in 2023 were the four par 5s. Sam Burns, who defended his title here in 2022 then finished 6th in 2023, ranked 11th and 7th in Par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour in both the years he won the Valspar Championship.

Ideally, golfers will be long and straight off the tee here. If you were to sacrifice one, it would be driving distance. The Copperhead golf course consistently ranks in the top 3 most difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour. We also see one of the Top 5 reductions in driving distance on this golf course. This is a factor of golfers clubbing down off the tee in order to find the safety of the fairway.

A disproportionate number of shots on approach occur from over 200+ yards, and this was one of the key metrics that helped us find winner Taylor Moore in 2023. Notably, all the par 3s play at 195 yards or longer.

Greenskeeper’s Preview of the Valspar Championship

There are some interesting notes from the greenkeepers this week, which mirror what we saw here in 2023:

  • Cool, wet weather has been great for ryegrass growth, including thicker rough.
  • Last year the rough height was increased to 3.75” from 3” in previous years
  • Also last year the intermediate cut width around the greens was decreased from 72” to 21” to bring the rough closer to the greens.

Accuracy has a strong correlation to success whenever you preview the Valspar Championship. With heavy rain in Florida to start 2024 and the rough grown out, expect the rough to be even more juicy and thick than previously.

Finally, a note on SG: ATG. Previously, this has been key to success in any Copperhead golf course analysis. However, do note the move of the intermediate fringe in for the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. This sees a reduction in expected output from short-game. Essentially, a tighter lie allows more creativity of shot around the green. With the thick rough moving closer to the playing surface, this takes some of the selection out of play. It leaves hacking the ball at as the sole way to return the ball to play. Therefore, around the green may play less of a factor than the historical metrics suggest.

Valspar Championship Preview: Copperhead Course Comps

Importantly, do note that prior course form provides less weighting towards future success compared to other PGA Tour venues. The reasons for this are two-fold. Firstly, this has previously been a weaker field. This results in a higher rate of turnover year on year compared to other courses. Secondly, the volatile nature of the Copperhead golf course provides for a wider range of outcomes. Sam Burns may fly in the face of that statement, but he is the exception rather than the rule.

Correlated course form can be found at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Host of The Memorial tournament, the golf course is tree-lined with a similar average length of par 4/5. It ranks in the top 5 on the PGA Tour both for missed fairway penalty and rough penalty. We also experience a large reduction in driving distance on that golf course, which allows us to target the longer iron approach play which is imperative to success this week.

TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, provides another nice correlation. It is a course where driving accuracy again reigns supreme.

On the DP World Tour, tree-lined accuracy based golf courses like Valderrama and PGA Catalunya come to mind. The Belfry and Rinkven are also courses where the combination of driving accuracy and long iron approach prove predictive.

Weather

As regular readers of these pages will note, we do weight weather predictions heavily within our modelling. Weather could prove pivotal in any preview of the Valspar Championship this week. We tend to have a good track record of getting this correct.

We correctly forecast that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would end in a 54 hole tournament, and I will make a similar prediction this week. I do think that, should current forecasts stay true, this will either be a 54 hole event or (more likely) another Monday finish is on the cards.

Friday is the main issue in this respect. A lot of rain is forecast, with potential thunderstorm risks. The winds also look very heavy, gusting to over 40 mph during Friday.

On current forecasts, I suspect that we see delays Friday. This should result in an advantage to Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times receiving an advantage. Those set to go out Friday afternoon could well see their rounds delayed into Saturday. Saturday morning does still look windy, but much less sever than on Friday.

I recommend joining WinDaily Sports using our current deal and checking the WinDaily Premium Discord. We will have the latest weather forecasts with our premium models right up to first tee-times.

Valspar Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valspar Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Valspar Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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