Each day we will be displaying the players and props that show the highest win rates of their current prop line at the time of posting. For example, if a player is listed with a win rate of 90% on “over 4.5 rebounds,” that means that in 9 out of the last 10 games they went over 4.5 rebounds. We’re doing some of the legwork for you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re suggesting to bet all of these. You still need to factor in match ups and other relevant information, and keep in mind that the hit rate is based on the current line at the time of posting, and is subject to change.
These are the highest percentage win rates of the top NBA player props today.
These are the highest rated win rates over the past 10 games but to see the highest edges based on our proprietary player projections click here.
Now to see the hand selected NBA player prop bets from our betting pros check them out here.
It’s hump day and we get a seven-game NBA DFS Slate. I’ll be breaking down my core plays alongside my favorite value plays. We’ll break down which game to target for your lineups also. On top of that, I’ll drop my two favorite bets for tonight’s action while using the brand-new Propbettor tool!
Luka Doncic $12,800 – 66.53 DK Points – 5.20 Value Rating
I don’t know what price Luka Doncic has to be for people to stop playing him. He has another solid matchup versus a Golden State Warriors team waiting on the return of Steph Curry. In their first matchup, Doncic recorded 39 points, 10 assists, and eight rebounds. In his last five games, he has averaged 35.6 points, 11.2 assists, and 10.8 rebounds per game. He recorded a triple-double in all five of those games. Both teams play at a fast pace and Luka Doncic will get his chance to continue his triple-double streak.
Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.
Jalen Smith $4,000 – 22.26 DK Points – 5.57 Value Rating
Even coming off of the bench, Jalen Smith is in a good spot versus the Chicago Bulls tonight. Overall, Chicago allows power forwards to average 23.1 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Smith has seen the Bulls twice this season and with one of them he started in. He averaged 11.5 points with 4.5 rebounds in those two games while shooting 71.4% from the field. While the minutes have not been there for him, Smith has still been able to score or at the minimum grab boards. Jalen Smith has the capabilities to hit his value.
Myles Turner $6,200 – 33.30 DK points – 5.37 Value Rating
Myles Turner has had some good luck versus the Chicago Bulls so far this season and now he gets to see them for the third time. Turner averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists with 2.5 blocks per game through the first two meetings. While his last five games haven’t been as stellar, this is a great bounce-back spot, especially at his price tag. Indiana plays at the second-highest pace with 105.5 possessions per game while the Bulls only average 101. Turner will have many opportunities to exceed our expectations tonight.
Jose Alvarado $3,400 – 18.22 DK points – 5.36 Value Rating
Jose Alvarado has seen a slight minute increase through his last five games where he averaged 20.9 minutes. On the season, Alvarado has been pushing 17.2 minutes per game. He has been filling the stats sheet lately, averaging 6.4 points, 2.6 assists, and 2.2 rebounds with 1.4 steals. The Cleveland Cavaliers are a good defensive team but allowing 23.7 points and 7.4 assists per game overall to the point guard position.
Daniel Gafford $5,000 – 24.01 DK Points – 4.80 Value Rating
While the projections for Daniel Gafford aren’t jumping off of the charts, the Dallas Mavericks do get the Golden State Warriors tonight. Gafford recorded 15 points, four rebounds, and one assist in the first meeting versus them. In his last five games, while his minutes have dropped, he averaged 13 points with seven rebounds. On the defensive end, the Warriors allow centers to average 22.8 points and 14.6 rebounds per game.
Toronto Raptors (+130) versus Detroit Pistons (-155) – Total 233 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
We get a great game for salary prices and pace of play with Toronto and Detroit. The Detroit Pistons lead the way with 104.1 possessions per game while Toronto averages 103.2. Mix that with a total of 233 points, there are most likely some great plays in this game. Cade Cunningham does lead the group at a price tag of $8.6k and a projection of 42.88. Jalen Duren may be the sweet spot though at $6.7k and a projection of 34.81 DK points with a value of 5.20.
The Toronto Raptors also come in at a relatively safe price with just Kelly Olynyk reaching $7k. Gradey Dick is at $4.8k and he projects well once again. He projects for 24.01 DK points and with a value of 5.00. Now, Toronto should be close to full health and the minutes Dick has been receiving may drop in this game. Bruce Brown may be one to avoid as his value is at 4.06 and would project below his value point of 20.69 points. While the Raptors have some intriguing plays, the Detroit Pistons are the better side to stack in this matchup.
We have launched the all-new PropBetter tool for our Premium users and you do not want to miss out on it. It covers the main Sportsbooks and allows you to find the edge for player props for each book. It’s a one-stop shop for you so you don’t have to go on a scavenger hunt to find the best place to place your money!
Franz Wagner over 4.5 Rebounds -145 (DK Sportsbook)
Using the Propbettor tool, Franz Wagner has a 29.8% edge to hit the over of 4.5 rebounds. He holds a projection of 5.85 versus the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets currently allow 8.5 rebounds per game to opposing forwards. Franz has proven that already. He averaged 6.7 rebounds in three games versus Brooklyn so far this season. The matchup is right for Franz Wagner.
Alex Caruso over 8.5 Points -115 (DK Sportsbook)
Here is another huge edge which is 38.21% for Alex Caruso over on his points total tonight of 8.5 points. Caruso is projected for 11.76 points tonight versus Indiana. He has faced them twice this season and averaged 11.5 points while playing 29.3 minutes. With it being a huge pace-up spot for Chicago, Alex Caruso should find some opportunities to score and do even more.
The PGA Tour descends upon TPC Sawgrass, where this iconic course plays host once again to the “5th Major” as we preview The Players Championship 2024. Perhaps contentious is to argue whether this still represents the best field in golf. Yes, the field is undoubtedly weakened compared to previous iterations. The shame, for golf fans more than anything else, is that such a field with all the best players no longer exists due to the rather political current state of the game of professional men’s golf.
My stance is this is still the best we get. It is true both in terms of depth but also the size of the field. Surely, the best field in golf is the most difficult to beat. That remains true statistically, just. Arguments could be made for the US Open and The Open Championship. Until then, we wait for the powers that be to reunite the game (hopefully).
Another great week, especially on the DP World Tour. We had 2nd place Jordan Smith in our tips, as well as a great run from 190/1 selection Pavan in South Africa.
At the Puerto Rico Open, all 6 of our tips made the cut. 5/6 of our golf betting tips finishing 23rd or better. Victor Perez was our strongest as he finished 3rd, just one shot outside the playoff.
Alongside all The Players betting tips, we already have some juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are delivering great closing line value.
We’ve already hit Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1 to start 2024 with a bang!
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Assisting our preview of The Players this week is a return to a regular venue. TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event since 1982, so he have a ton of data to deep-dive into.
Despite not being the longest course at 7,275 yards par 72, this track always proves a stern test. Winning scores in the low to mid teens have been common here. Much of that comes down to the abundant water hazards on the course, with water in-play on 17 of the 18 holes. Rough is a thick 3.5in ryegrass and is penal. Greens are small at just under 5,500 sq ft on average. And we see a return to poa annua surfaces, which we will experience on the majority of courses in Florida.
This eye-test is reflected in the data. The course ranks in the top 5 highest penalties for missed fairways and in the top 6 for number of penalties every year since 2015. Therefore, driving accuracy is a large predictor of success here. The course actually ranks inside the top 10 shortest for average driving distance as players seek to find the short stuff.
Approach is also tricky. TPC Sawgrass has ranked as the 2nd, 2nd, and 1st most difficult on the tour for approach under 150 yards over the last 3 years. We also see a disproportionate number of shots within those ranges compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.
Find the fairways, nail or wedges, avoid the water, and make your putts is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass.
Course history is not actually overly strong at TPC Sawgrass. The volatile nature of the golf course explains that fact. However, another benefit to our preview of The Players is it has one of the strongest correlations to another golf course that we will see all year.
Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, is extremely correlated to success at TPC Sawgrass. Si Woo Kim has not only won at both, but also has an additional 9th here to compliment a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th at Sedgefield. Webb Simpson loves the Wyndham Championship so much he named his daughter after the event. He is also a winner of The Players Championship. You can also add Henrik Stenson down as another to complete the winning double. It should be your key guide as you preview The Players field this week.
Other parallels can be found at the RBC Heritage host Harbour Town, another fiddly course designed by Pete Dye. It puts pressure on finding fairways and on short approach shots.
From the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth makes some nice links. Viktor Hovland has finished 5th there in 2022 and 2023 while finishing 9th and 3rd at The Players the same year. Aaron Rai has finished 14th and 2nd at Wentworth and finished an admirable 19th in his only appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Shane Lowry has a win, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th and 18th around Wentworth. He also has an 8th, 13th and 16th at TPC Sawgrass. Christiaan Bezuidenhout also links the two courses nicely. He holds a 3rd and 5th at Wentworth, plus finished 13th at The Players and also has the sneaky hidden -7 1st round in 2020 before the tournament was suspended at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.
TPC Sawgrass, with it’s premium on accuracy and exposed nature, has seen some significant weather edges develop in recent iterations.
Perhaps most notably was in 2022. The entire industry was on a singular weather wave due to significant winds in the forecast. We took a contrarian stance to the industry, spotting a high risk of thunderstorms meaning play was likely to be delayed. We got the weather spot on, and enjoyed huge leverage as a result with the biggest weather edge of the season.
Both Thursday and Friday represent a similar forecast in terms of wind. There are easier conditions in the morning leading to higher gusts in the afternoon. The only wrinkle in this is that heavy rain and thunderstorms are once again on the cards for the Friday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks very windy, but the morning should be calm until about midday.
At this stage, the forecast still remains a little uncertain. If you were to hedge your bets, it may again pay to be a little contrarian. Target those going Thursday AM and Friday PM in the hope thunderstorms delay play. This would push those groups to a calmer Saturday morning. As always, check-in to the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord for the latest in the forecast.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for The Players Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here shortly or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of The Players Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
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