Joel Bartilotta 
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Today we have a solid slate of football. As is tradition, we have a 3 game thanksgiving slate. The darling of the day appears to be the Dallas/Las Vegas game as it has a 51 projected total. Below you’ll find my top picks on MKF.
More or Less – 3.6x Payout
Josh Allen vs. New Orleans – 265.5 Yards
Saints have shown the propensity to give up some big games this season as they’ve given up over 265 yards passing 5 times this season. When doing my research for this, I automatically threw out their last game against the Eagles as they only gave up 147 yards but that was against a team that runs a 70/30 run/pass split.
Bills are in must win mode now. They’re a half game back of the Patriots and can’t afford to lose this game. If they are going to win, they need a vintage game from Josh Allen. You know, one of those 300+ passing games with multiple touchdowns. Allen has gotten to the 266 yard mark a handful of times this season and he does it again today.
Derek Carr vs. Dallas Cowboys – 260.5 Yards
If you would have asked me if Carr could get to this number earlier in the season it would have been an easy yes for me. Over the first 5 weeks of the season the Cowboys gave up more than 290 yards passing in each game. However, over the last few weeks they’ve tightened things up a bit. The most they’ve given up over their past 5 games is 260 yards which was last week against Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Carr himself has hit this number 70% of the time this season. Most recently in week 10 against the Chiefs. I personally think this is going to be a tough matchup for Carr today and he struggles in the air. The Cowboys are going to be extra motivated to play today after a tough loss this past weekend. I’m going w/ the under on this one.
Rapid Fire – 3x Payout
Josh Allen vs. Derek Carr (+5.5 yards)
I’ve already highlighted the two of these guys in the More or Less section. Even with the extra 5.5 yards Allen should have a better game than Carr today. I’m choosing Allen over Carr.
Stefon Diggs vs. Darren Waller (+11.5 yards)
With my expectation that Allen has a great game today comes the expectation that Diggs follows suit. Diggs is Allen’s main target. Over the past 4 weeks Diggs has been targeted on average more than 9 times per game.
During that stretch he also has a game of 162 yards. While I don’t think he gets to 162 yards today, I do expect him to get over the century mark. On the defensive side, the Saints have really squeezed receivers of late. In the last 6 weeks they’ve allowed more than 190 yards receiving to wide receivers only once.
Switching over to Waller he is essentially the Raiders offense. When he’s in the lineup he is the main target for Derek Carr. While I don’t think that Carr has a great day, I do think that Carr does enough with Waller for him to be a top offensive star on the day. We’ve seen Carr have subpar games but for Waller to do well in those.
Last week is a prime example. Carr only threw for 215 yards last week against the Bengals. 116 yards of those yards went to Waller. Cowboys have given up some big yardage games to tight ends this season and they should do it again today. My pick here is Waller, especially given the extra 11.5 yards.
Good luck and hope you cash!
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