adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Welcome to my preview for Thanksgiving DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all the games on Thursday. Are you ready for some Thanksgiving DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings.
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Thanksgiving DFS Thursday – Bears @ Lions – 12:30 PM EST Opening Line: Chicago -3.5 | Over/Under 37.5
Quarterbacks, Defenses, Special Teams
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,000) is definitely a quarterback that you can use in GPPs. He is the cheapest starting quarterback on the slate and the matchup could benefit him a lot. Trubisky in his career does not “own” many teams, but he sure owns the Lions. In his last three games versus Detriot, he has either thrown for three passing touchdowns or thrown for over 300 passing yards. Before they held Dwayne Haskins to less than seven fantasy points last week, they had allowed at least 18 fantasy points to every other quarterback this season except for one.
Trubisky with Matt Nagy as his coach averages 26 fantasy points per game against top-ten bottom pass defenses. Detroit allows the third-most passing yards per game (275.5) this season and the most passing yards per game at home (332.8). He also started running more last week, with a season-high seven rushing attempts for 18 yards. With rushing upside, the matchup, and price he needs to be played.
Considering Jeff Driskel ($5,500) is more expensive entering the game banged up, he is tough to trust if he cannot use his mobility. Should Driskel miss David Blough ($4,200) would get the start and would get eaten alive by the Bears DST ($2,500), which is an easy cash lock play at the price regardless. PFF has the Bears with the sixth-best ranked pass-rush and the Lions have a bottom-ten pass block grade. The Bears DST scored eight points in their first matchup versus the Lions. The Lions DST ($2,700) is only a GPP play, for extremely low ownership, but the Bears have allowed three interceptions, and ten sacks over the past three games.
Running Backs
Though the Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points to backs this season, lately they have been better. Over the past three weeks, they have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards, 3.4 yards per attempt, and just one rushing touchdown. Tarik Cohen ($5,000) is cheaper than David Montgomery ($5,400) and has scored in his last two games versus the Lions. Cohen is probably the safer play in DraftKings in PPR formats, but Montgomery has the highest potential for a multiple touchdown game with him ranking third in the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line. Cohen has seen double-digit touches in back to back weeks after seeing more than ten touches just once in the nines game prior.
Bo Scarborough ($4,700) has now seen 32 carries over the last two weeks and came extremely close to surpassing the century mark in Week 12. Now the Bears’ defense has been extremely up and down this season, but if we recall last year on Thanksgiving against an elite Bears’ defense LeGarrette Blount was able to rush for 88 yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns. If Blount was able to do that last year versus an even better defense, I think Scarborough should be productive in Week 13. The Bears are allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns, 60% rushing touchdown percentage, 30.6 rushing attempts, and 6.8 rushing first downs per game on the road this season.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
The best value on this slate comes at the receiver position with guys like Anthony Miller ($3,900) and Javon Wims ($3,000). Taylor Gabriel is going to likely miss this game with a concussion which makes Miller essentially lock-in cash. He had seven targets in Week 12 going for 77 yards. Miller should be able to operate freely versus the Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to receivers over the past four weeks. Allen Robinson ($6,700) was not shadowed by Darius Slay in the team’s first matchup with the Lions but was held to under 40 yards receiving in his last game played at Detriot.
The Lions’ receivers are all GPP plays with the revolving door at quarterback and the Bears allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. Kenny Golladay ($6,100), Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,300), and Danny Amendola ($4,100) should not be heavily targeted with the total in this game at 37.5. Golladay has not scored more than 15 points with Driskel under center and has been out targeted 18-21 to Jones. Jones has reached at least 55 receiving yards in his last six games versus the Bears, so he could be considered in cash.
Final thoughts on this game are that the only usable tight ends are T.J. Hockenson ($3,400) and punt play Jesper Horsted ($2,500). Logan Thomas ($2,900) is the good receiver at tight end so he is worth a GPP punt if Hockenson misses the Thanksgiving DFS contest.
Thanksgiving DFS Thursday – Bills @ Cowboys – 4:30 PM EST Opening Line: Dallas -6.5 | Over/Under 44.5
Quarterbacks, Defenses, Special Teams
Dak Prescott ($5,700) is coming off a down game but that was versus the league’s best defense. The Bills have a good defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, Prescott is averaging almost 28 fantasy points per game at home, so he should be able to produce. Dallas has the fifth-highest implied team total on the Week 13 slate. Josh Allen ($6,200) is more expensive, but his rushing upside makes him different than any other quarterback on the slate. He has at least six rushing attempts in his last five games and averages 24 fantasy points per game on the road. With this game being the only game on the Thanksgiving DFS slate not featuring two divisional opponents playing each other for the second time this game could easily hit the over. Divisional game rematches often time go under. Both are strong plays but in a vacuum I prefer Allen. In regards to DST plays, do not love either of them with me leaning towards the over in this game. Only the Cowboys DST ($3,000) in a build where I think the Cowboys just run all over the Bills.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,400) is a lock-in cash game with the Bills being a run-funnel defense as their weakness. Devin Singletary ($5,800) usage is continuing to trend upward (16 touches in three of last four games) and he is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season so he is at a value price. Dallas is allowing 4.6 yards per carry at home this season and have allowed sixth-most targets to running backs over the past four weeks. With Singletary involved in both the pass and running games, he is also a nice cash play option.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Amari Cooper ($6,000) is an easy buyback candidate at home. In five games at home this year, he’s had 100+ receiving yards in four of them. He’s also scored five touchdowns over the course of those games, including his 226-yard performance against Green Bay. Michael Gallup ($5,500) is also too cheap is the great pivot off Cooper if he just busts again. Randall Cobb ($5,000) has now seen four weeks with at least seven targets and we have seen the floor/ceiling from that target projection. In Week 9 Cobb had six receptions on eight targets for 35 yards. In Week 10 Cobb saw the same volume (eight targets, six receptions), but this time he went for 106 yards and one touchdown. He followed this performance up in Week 11 with another 100+ yard outing going for 115 and another score on just four receptions. And most recently in Week 12, he had four receptions for 86 receiving yards.
The Bills are likely to be chasing points so I like John Brown ($6,400) because he has a super-high floor combined with a nice ceiling that on the road he has a better chance of hitting. Brown is averaging 21 points per game on the road versus 12.4 points per game at home. And obviously you need to buy into the Cole Beasley ($4,700) revenge narrative. It also helps that Beasley has at least nine fantasy points in all but two games this season.
The Bills have absolutely erased tight ends this season, so all the Cowboys’ tight ends are fades for me. Dawson Knox ($2,900) is one of the potential pivots that are usable though versus Dallas that is awful versus the position.
Thanksgiving DFS Thursday – Saints @ Falcons – 8:20 PM EST EST Opening Line: Saints -6.5 | Over/Under 50
Quarterbacks, Defenses, Special Teams
Drew Brees ($6,800) is on the road in Atlanta so he should be a lock outside of his price tag. Matt Ryan ($6,400) I cannot trust in cash after last week, but go back to him in GPPs at home. Brees in his last three games at Atlanta as thrown for seven touchdowns and two interceptions averaging over 300 yards passing. Ryan at home this season has actually not been as good just averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game, and Julio Jones ($7,300) is banged up. For that reason, the Saints DST ($3,500) could break the slate if they just overpower the Falcons’ offense which could easily happen. You would have to imagine after the Falcons beat the Saints just a few weeks ago in New Orleans that the Saints will want to put a whipping on the Dirty Birds.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara ($8,100) is another cash play lock, and Latavius Murray ($5,600) serves as the GPP pivot for the team with the highest implied team total on Thursday. Despite the Falcons’ resurgence, they have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to backs over the past two weeks. Devonta Freeman ($5,100) looks to be good to go, but he is far from a lock because the guy is glass. He should at least see the primary work in the passing game though he could be vultured by a Qadree Ollison ($4,100) who the Falcons have been using near the goalline. RIP Brian Hill ($4,400) SZN.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Michael Thomas ($9,100) and Jared Cook ($4,400) are more lock-in cash plays where their spots cannot be beaten. Cook leads all tight ends in air yards over the past three weeks and the Falcons’ secondary was gashed by the Buccaneers last week with Chris Godwin. One interesting trend for Thomas to get off him in GPPs is that he has been held under 100 yards in the second Falcons matchup after going over that number in the first game. If you do fade Cook in GPPs, his lack of production would come at the benefit of either Tedd Ginn Jr. ($3,800) or Tre’Quan Smith ($3,500). Jaeden Graham ($3,100) is an interesting name at tight end with a deep reception early in Week 12. He ran the second-most routes at the position last week. Backup tight end Luke Stocker ($2,700) has a strong chance of missing this game.
