Tuesday 12/29 EPL DFS

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This article focuses on 12/29 EPL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.

Tuesday 12/29 EPL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Let’s get ready for EPL Matchweek 16/38, as we have one of the biggest midweek slates of the season.

There are a total of five games with four beginning at 1pm ET and one late game at 3pm ET. However, DraftKings will only be featuring the first four.

Arsenal (+128) at Brighton (+215) – We will see if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang returns. If not, we will a similar Arsenal lineup to last time out against Chelsea. However, given their success in that game, perhaps that wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

Sheffield United (+230) at Burnley (+138) – This should be a dull game although Chris Wood’s +155 odds to score is the fourth highest on the slate. Nick Pope might be popular in net. People might also snatch the defenders, particularly on DraftKings, hoping for a clean sheet plus solid output.

West Ham (+225) at Southampton (+125) – Danny Ings will likely remain out, leaving Southampton without their primary scoring threat. This should be a low scoring game decided by set pieces and chance opportunities.

Leeds United (-106) at West Brom (+275) – Patrick Bamford’s +108 goal scoring odds pace the slate, which features a number of low scoring games. As the second biggest favorite on the slate, either pieces or a Leeds stack, are both in play. Raphinha has taken control of the Leeds set pieces for now.

FANDUEL ONLY – Wolves (+500) at Manchester United (-175) – United is the biggest favorite on the slate. Bruno, along with the other attackers, should be very popular.

Notable Goal Scoring Odds

Note: Many of these players will not end up starting, but their goal odds are listed just in case. If they do not end up starting, disregard them. All odds listed +300 or below and projected starters are listed in bold.

Arsenal at Brighton – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+165), Alexandre Lacazette (+180), Folarin Balogun (+210), Neal Maupay (+225), Eddie Nketiah (+230), Gabriel Martinelli (+240), Danny Welbeck (+295), Aaron Connolly (+310), Andi Zeqiri (+310), Nicolas Pepe (+320), Bukayo Saka (+390), Leandro Trossard (+390), Pascal Gros (+440), Joe Willock (+600)

West Ham at Southampton – Michail Antonio (+195), Che Adams (+225), Sebastian Haller (+255), Shane Long (+260), Daniel N’Lundulu (+260), Theo Walcott (+295), Michael Obafemi (+295), Jarrod Bowen (+330), Andriy Yarmolenko (+330), Tomas Soucek (+350), Manuel Lanzini (+600)

Sheffield United at Burnley – Chris Wood (+155), Ashley Barnes (+215), Matěj Vydra (+235), Jay Rodriguez (+245), David McGoldrick (+290), Oliver McBurnie (+290), Rhian Brewster (+290), Lys Mousset (+290), Billy Sharp (+300)

Leeds United at West Brom – Patrick Bamford (+108), Rodrigo (+230), Karlan Grant (+235), Charlie Austin (+235), Pablo Hernandez (+260), Tyler Roberts (+260), Raphinha (+280), Callum Robinson (+285), Mateusz Klich (+325), Helder Costa (+350), Ian Poveda (+350), Matheus Pereira (+380), Jack Harrison (+390), Conor Gallagher (+400)

Wolves at Manchester United –  Bruno Fernandes (+140), Edinson Cavani (+145), Marcus Rashford (+175), Anthony Martial (+175), Mason Greenwood (+210), Pedro Neto (+350), Fabio Silva (+360), Daniel Podence (+420), Paul Pogba (+460)

EPL Best Odds

* Leeds United ML (-106) “DraftKings Sportsbook”

DraftKings | FanDuel

The Betting Game Plan

Leeds unapologetically offensive playing style under coach Marcelo Bielsa should serve them well against hapless West Brom. My assumption would be that new coach “Big Sam” Allardyce and West Brom will look to recreate their all defensive formation, as previously employed against Manchester City.

Given that this style involves conceding the ball nearly eighty percent of the team and playing with your back to net, it is fair to say it won’t create sustainable success. Once again, we will get away from the parlays with a near even odds money line bet.

12/29 EPL FanDuel Rankings “Set pieces less important on FanDuel”

Forward/Midfield

• 1. Bruno Fernandes – Manchester United – $22 “Some set pieces”
• 2. Patrick Bamford – Leeds United – $18
• 3. Edinson Cavani – Manchester United – $16
• 4. Raphinha – Leeds United – $13 “Some set pieces”
• 5. James Ward-Prowse – Southampton – $15 “Set pieces”
• 6. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $14 “Set pieces”
• 7. Gabriel Martinelli – Arsenal – $13
• 8. Marcus Rashford – Manchester United – $21
• 9. Neal Maupay – Brighton – $15
• 10. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Arsenal – $20
• 11. Che Adams – Southampton – $16
• 12. Anthony Martial – Manchester United – $19
• 13. Chris Wood – Burnley – $17
• 14. Alexandra Lacazette – Arsenal – $18
• 15. Leandro Trossard – Brighton – $12

Defense

• 1. Pablo Mari – Arsenal – $5
• 2. Roman Saiss – Wolves – $7
• 3. Semi Ajayi – West Brom – $8
• 4. Jack Stephens – Southampton – $7
• 5. Harry Maguire – Manchester United – $10

Goalies

1. Illan Meslier – Leeds United – $10
2. Nick Pope – Burnley – $14

12/29 EPL DraftKings Rankings

Forward

1. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – $6,700 “Not currently projected to start”
2. Nicolas Pepe – Arsenal – $6,200 “Set pieces”
3. Raphinha – Leeds United – $9,700 “Some set pieces”
4. Patrick Bamford – Leeds United – $9,100
5. Chris Wood – Burnley – $6,200
6. Alexandre Lacazette – Arsenal – $7,300
7. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $9,300 “Set pieces”
8. Jarrod Bowen – West Ham – $8,800 “Set pieces”
9. Che Adams – Southampton – $6,900
10. Gabriel Martinelli – Arsenal – $6,500
11. Neal Maupay – Brighton – $7,900

Midfield

1. James Ward-Prowse – Southampton – $8,600 “Some set pieces”
2. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – $6,700 “Not currently projected to start”
3. Nicolas Pepe – Arsenal – $6,200 “Set pieces”
4. Raphinha – Leeds United – $9,700 “Some set pieces”
5. Ben Johnson – West Ham – $3,400
6. Pascal Gros – Brighton – $9,300 “Set pieces”
7. Jack Harrison – Leeds United – $8,000
8. Jarrod Bowen – West Ham – $8,800 “Set pieces”
9. Matheus Pereira – West Brom – $8,400 “Set pieces”
10. Declan Rice – West Ham – $3,200

Defense

1. Matthew Lowton – Burnley – $3,800
2. Charlie Taylor – Burnley – $4,600
3. Vladimir Coufal – West Ham – $5,900
4. Dan Burn – Brighton – $3,500
5. Ben Mee – Burnley – $2,600

Goalies

1. Nick Pope – Burnley – $4,900
2. Illan Meslier – Leeds United – $5,400

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