Welcome to my new column, The Range! This week we’ll go over the Travelers Championship from last week and get you ready for the upcoming Rocket Mortgage Classic right here on WIN DAILY.
Recap of the Travelers Championship
Throughout the final round it appeared Reavie could cruise to the championship, until the back nine. Both Sucher and Reavie’s playing mate Bradley made big pushes to close the gap and apply pressure to the 54 hole leader. Sucher unfortunately just ran out holes to truly compete with Reavie. Bradley on the other hand was closing and closing quick. Bradley was -5 heading into the Par 4 hole 17 (Reavie even on the day thus far) until disaster struck. Reavie birdied the hole and Bradley double bogeyed ultimately capping any chance of a playoff or an outright win.
While the Insight Sheet didn’t have as high of a cut rate as it did at the U.S. Open, it still came away with the winner at 14% ownership. I decided early on there was enough value and pivots to move off the chalkier players. I had a full fade on Casey, Moore, Grillo, Hoffman and Kokrak. Casey and Moore did very well finishing at T5 and T15 respectively. Grillo almost missed the cut TWICE and finished T60 overall. Hoffman and Kokrak missed the weekend all together. With none of the guys bringing home any hardware, I’ll consider that a win.
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It’s been 10 years since the PGA Tour has been in Michigan. At the time the tournament was called the Buick Open and it was located in the Flint suburb of Grand Blanc. This year the Detroit Golf Club will be hosting the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic. With the new stop in the tour schedule, it brings with it some fun and exciting challenges from DFS standpoints.
The biggest hurdle to maneuver is the fact that there is no data to pull from previous years. Generally I try to look at balanced golfers week in and week out. With no previous rounds played I’ll rely on this approach even more heavily this week. With this course never being played before I cannot get a true comp course list either, but perhaps we can start with the designer of the course, Donald Ross. He has several courses that are still played on tour today. The list includes Aronimink, Oak Hill, Pinehurst #2, Plainfield, and SedgeField (thanks to @EPatGolf for starting this thread on Twitter). Below are the Top 10 golfers in Strokes Gained Total over the last 36 rounds and their respective DraftKings points.
With the Top 10 above it looks like both bombers and grinders could succeed here. The fairways are wider than tour average but despite the comments from locals saying accuracy is key the Top 10 above would indicate otherwise. If everyone is leaning towards accuracy, golfers who spray and pray may go overlooked.
Player Fit – Back End: (The part of the golfer’s ability where they excel in the smaller nuances of the game that might push them over the top to a win)
Here is a scorecard form breakdown of the holes for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. I believe the holes highlighted in blue may play below par for the week.
Though there have been quotes suggesting the greens will keep the score lower, I believe we see some high end scoring. Looking at the scorecard, almost half the holes are a birdie candidate with three Par 4’s under 400 yards and three out of the four Par 5’s. With smaller greens I’ll target golfers that excel at putting from five to ten feet and golfers who gain opportunities for birdies.
Here are the Top 10 golfers with a balanced weight of Opportunity Gained, Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400, Par 5 Scoring and Putting: 5- 10 ft.
As much as I’ve looked into everything shared with the public for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, this is a brand new course, and with it, a bit of the unknown. I’ll be sticking with my models that look for well rounded golfers this week as I feel it’s the safest approach. Even though every golfer in the field has yet to play on a Donald Ross designed golf course I’ll want to look at those who did and how they fared.
Course Setup: 7200 – 7400 Yards Fast/Poa greens Larger than average fairways
Player Efficiencies: Opportunities Gained Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 Yards Par 5 Scoring Putting: 5- 10 ft
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.
While The Range article will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will only be free for a limited time.
Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.