Week 9 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!
David also won back-to-back GPPs!
There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.
Quarterbacks:
Stud Quarterback: Matthew Stafford ($7,900 FD)
I don’t typically like Stafford on the road, but the matchup is just too good. The Raiders are tied with the Falcons for second most receiving touchdowns given up this year. They have allowed 285 yards per game to wideouts. They also average a very high 8.6 yards per catch allowed. Stafford has been sharp lately, throwing seven touchdowns in the last two games. Factor in that the Lions run game does not exist, so the Detroit coaching staff is going to ask Stafford to do more with his arm. We could see another three touchdown game out of Stafford and I wouldn’t be surprised. Make sure to stack him with one of his receiving options in your NFL DFS contests.
Stud Pivots: Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston (He does have the two highest priced receivers on the slate, that’s a good sign), Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen
Value Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky ($6,500 FD)
Here we go… This guy is getting absolutely trashed for a bad game last week. They are literally burning his jersey in the street in Chicago. This is a massive overreaction in my opinion. The Bears are not going to bench Trubisky, in fact quite the opposite. They are going to let this guy get through the good times and the bad times on the field. I know that Coach Nagy has commented that Trubisky needs to figure it out fast or they will have to make some tough decisions, but I am not that worried. Trubisky is feeling the heat this week and if he ever needs to bust out of a slump it is this Sunday. So why do I like him? His price is way too low for starters. He also gets to go against one of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Eagles.
Two games ago Trubisky put up 251 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Saints defense. Two games before that’s he threw for three touchdowns against the Redskins. He can produce. Just because he didn’t find the end zone last week are we supposed to think he will never throw a touchdown again? Of course not. He has capable receivers in Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel and even Tarik Cohen. Is this a safe play? No, it is not. Is it a great GPP play? Yes, it is! If Mitchell can get us 20 points (I think he does) then we are in prime position to make big bucks in NFL DFS this Sunday.
Value QB Pivots: Derek Carr
Running Backs
Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,700 FD)
Do I even need to write this guy up? He just put up 25 FanDuel points on the one of, if not the best, defenses in the league. He is basically the entire offense and I think he wins MVP this year (sorry Russell Wilson). He will get all the rush attempts he can handle and also be targeted like a WR1. The Titans have a decent defense, but not anywhere close to what he just faced in San Fransisco. CMC already has 10 touchdowns in just seven games. He is the number one running back you should target every week in NFL DFS.
Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook (LOVE HIM vs KC, RB1B this week to CMC), Nick Chubb
Mid RB: Derrick Henry ($6,800 FD)
The Carolina Panthers have given up a league high 12 rushing touchdowns this season (Tevin Coleman helped boost that number last Sunday). Derrick Henry does not split time and is an absolute monster when he gets the ball. He should be the first guy the Titans give the pigskin to in the Red Zone and I don’t think the Panthers are going to be able to stop him. I am predicting Henry for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. At $6,800 on FanDuel he is a NFL DFS bargain.
UPDATE: Lock in Jaylen Samuels at $5,000 on FD
Pivots: Le’Veon Bell, Austin Ekeler, Jordan Howard
Note: Phillip Lindsay popped up with wrist injury, so if he were to miss the game Royce Freeman is a good play
Note: Aaron Jones has a shoulder injury, if he is out lock in Jamaal Williams
I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.
Wide Receiver
Stud WR: Chris Godwin ($8,200 FD)
He has an elite matchup against a bad Seattle secondary. Last week he let us down, but still had eight points (which doesn’t kill you in cash games). The three weeks before that he got 20, 28, 35 FanDuel points and won a lot of us a lot of money. Jameis Winston should have to throw it here (because I expect them to be playing from behind) and the NFL DFS sites have adjusted the Bucs receivers accordingly. This week Chris Godwin leads the Bucs receiving core with over 100 yards and a touchdown. He has not had two consecutive games under ten fantasy points this year and I don’t expect that trend to end against the Seahawks, who give up and average of 273 receiving yards a game.
Stud Pivots: Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Lockett
Mid WR: Allen Robinson ($7,200 FD)
He is far and away the number one offensive option for the Bears. He has not been targeted under seven times the entire season. I would lock him in cash games and play him in GPPs for his high ceiling against the terrible Eagles defense. They tried to make trades to improve their corners on Tuesday but couldn’t get anyone to bite, which means they are going to be bad the rest of the season. With Mitchell Tribusky feeling the heat in Chicago he is going to highly target his best guy. Love him in NFL DFS this week.
Mid WR Pivots: Alshon Jeffrey, Tyrell Williams, Robby Anderson, John Brown
Value WR: Robby Anderson ($6,200 FD)
It feels like a Robby Anderson week. I called the last one on the Win Daily podcast and I am doing it again here. The South Florida native returns to Miami as the number one deep threat for the New York Jets. We all know the Dolphins are the worst defense in the league and targeting them every single week has worked all season, so why would we stop now? The was to attack them is through the air, not so much on the ground. Robby is a boom or bust guy and could have a bad game if Sam Darnold sees any more spooky ghosts on the field, however I think he can man up and launch a few deep to Anderson against a team that literally wants to lose. I will punt Anderson at a “friends and family” game in Miami in my NFL DFS lineups.
Value WR Pivots: DeVante Parker
I am expecting more value to pop up so keep checking back or follow me on twitter @tenaciousdjones. I will tweet out whenever I make an update.
Tight End
Tight End:
Darren Waller ($6,800 FD)
He is the most targeted tight end in the NFL and gets a nice matchup against the Lions (ranked 23rd against the TE) at home. He is extraordinarly safe with high upside.
Tight End Pivots: Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson, Cameron Brate (if OJ Howard out)
Defense
- Bills
- Colts (would like clarification on Steelers RB injuries before I lock them in)
- Browns (they are not good, but they get to face Brandon Allen at QB)
- Vikings
- Broncos
I will tweet out when there are updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!
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Matt Stafford is my favorite quarterback this week so of course I think he gets over 300 yards here (See my write up above). I know Carr has been efficient this season but 275 is a tall order for a guy I don’t have much trust in. This could change is Josh Jacobs is ruled out (because he will be forced to throw more), but until that news breaks I am sticking with this as my MKF pick.
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