Phil Naessens 
Week 5 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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Quarterbacks:
Stud Quarterback: Deshaun Watson ($8,000 FD)
I am expecting a lot of fireworks in this game. The Atlanta Falcons have looked terrible and they have had a relatively easy schedule. Watson is a dual threat QB, which I love. He has rushed for one touchdown in three of his four games. He has thrown for three touchdowns in two games and zero touchdowns in two games. The Falcons lost safety Keanu Neal for the season and should be more susceptible to the long ball here. Watson missed both Hopkins and Fuller on wide open deep shots last week and this week I expect him to be more accurate. Hopkins is currently ranked ninth in the NFL in receptions and 14th in targets in 2019. Will Fuller has not had his breakout game yet, but this is the week (more on him below)! If both Hop and Fuller get in the end zone I would not be surprised. Out of the Top Five DFS NFL quarterbacks, he will be my top guy.
Stud Quarterback Pivots: Dak Prescott
Mid Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($7,700 FD)
The Falcons are in desperation mode and I expect them to come out on Sunday and force the pass (because that is the only thing they have going for their offense). Matty Ice faces a Houston Texans team that is ranked 21st overall in total pass defense. They have given up 1,036 yards in the air and five touchdowns in four games. Ryan has seven touchdowns on the season and the second most yards in the NFL (1,250) in the first four games. Last week he scored 15.68 FD points, and that was without a single touchdown. There is a ton of pressure coming from the Falcons’ front office (and fans) right now and I am looking for an offensive “bounce-back”. Pair him with Julio, Ridley and/or Hooper and let’s hope the Birds all but abandon the lackluster run game and hang with the Texans. The Falcons and Matt Ryan are one of my favorite NFL DFS stacks this week.
Mid Quarterback Pivot: Tom Brady ($7,600 FD) Either him or the running backs are going to break out vs the TERRIBLE Redskins.
Running Backs
Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,100 FD)
He comes in as the overall most expensive player in the NFL DFS pool this week but he has earned it. If the Panthers are going to have a chance to win, it is pretty much on this guy’s back. He is getting more opportunities than anyone in the league right now. With Cam going down, Riverboat Ron is leaning even more on CMC. He has 367 all-purpose yards the past two games. He should get easily over 20 carries and be treated like a WR1. The Jags have been middle of the road when it comes to rush defense, but they have only played two teams with legit running threats (Titans and Broncos). CMC is certainly their toughest competition to date. I will take him over the Jags rush D any day.
Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook Very high on him as well, Ezekiel Elliot
Mid RB: David Johnson ($6,800 FD)
The Bengals are the sixth worst team against the run so far this year. They have given up 575 yards and five touchdowns. In the passing game goes, Cincy has given up 973 yards and eight passing touchdowns, which is the seventh worst in the NFL. David Johnson is going to have the opportunity to run and catch passes here. The last two games D.J. has been targeted an astounding 20 times through the air for 117 yards and one touchdown. Johnson has not been a top tier RB this year, but he has not been bad, contrary to popular belief. His price keeps dropping and he has over 15 FD points in three of his four games. That will work. At only $6,800 he makes a great NFL DFS play for me this week against a bad (like always) Bengals team.
Mid Pivot: Sony Michel
Wide Receiver
Stud WR: Julio Jones ($8,200 FD)
Matt Ryan should force feed arguably the league’s top receiver. A lot of the reasons I wrote for Ryan stand true for “Jet” Jones. The Falcons should just focus on what they are good at, the passing game. Jones already has four touchdowns, which is tied for first in the NFL. He has two games over 100 yards so far and should be in store for another one here. He averages 13.8 yards per catch and has 23 receptions on the season. He is my favorite NFL DFS receiver in Week Five.
Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas
Mid WR: Tyler Boyd (6,700 FD)
John Ross is doubtful this week, which should funnel more passes towards Tyler Boyd. In the first three games he was targeted over 10 times in each (and that was with John Ross going nuclear). The Arizona Cardinals have given up the second most touchdowns to pass catchers this year (10) and the ninth most yards (1,084). On a week when Tyler Eifert is going to be chalk, I really like the position pivot to Boyd (or using both). Last season Boyd scored far more touchdowns at home (six home, one away), and this was with A.J. Green on the field half of the time. Boyd gets in the end zone this week at a great NFL DFS price.
Mid WR Pivots: Alshon Jeffrey, Josh Gordon
Update: Removed Edelman, added MVS and Tate
Value WR: Will Fuller ($5,700 FD)
I am going back to Fuller this week one last time. His price is just too cheap and he gets a nice matchup at home against the Atlanta Falcons (mentioned under Watson). You don’t get points for air yards, but Will Fuller is 12th amongst wide receivers so far this year. Watson will look at Hopkins first, as he should, but the next most trusted guy is Fuller. It also helps that Kenny Stills is dealing with a hamstring injury and may not play. The Falcons have given up seven TDs to wide receivers so far, and I am thinking they give up a handful more this week.
WR Value Pivots: D.J. Chark, Calvin Ridley
Tight End
Tight End: Tyler Eifert ($4,600 FD)
The Cardinals are terrible against the tight end. Every single week the TE scores at least one touchdown. Tyler Eifert is going to be very popular in NFL DFS because of this, but targeting the Cards has worked every week so I am not going to get off it here. He is wayyy too cheap to not use him in a lineup or two.
Tight End Pivots: Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz
Update: Evan Engram
Defense
- Patriots
- Titans
Update: Removed Oakland Punt. Just pay up for Pats
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