Week 4 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!
David also won back-to-back GPPs!
Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.
Quarterbacks:
Stud Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes ($9,200 FD; $7,500 DK)
I might just keep him as my number one all season. Since Tyreek Hill went down Mahomes has made stars out of his emerging receivers in Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman while rejuvenating vet Sammy Watkins. Mahomes has not scored less than 27 FanDuel points in the first three games (Jags, Ravens and Raiders). This week the Chiefs head to the undefeated Detroit Lions home field to crash the party. On paper the Lions D has looked fine, mostly because they have not been losing games, however they have not had stiff competition. Week One they got rookie Kyler Murray, Week Two they got a flat Chargers squad and last week they took on the Eagles who were depleted on offense. The Chiefs are going to break these Lions hearts quick in their home dome. Mahomes has 10 touchdowns so far this season and he should be able to add at least another two or three this Sunday. He is as safe as it gets at quarterback and is going to win a lot of people a lot of NFL DFS money this season.
Stud Quarterback Pivots: Lamar Jackson, DeShaun Watson
Mid Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($7,800 FD; $6,100 DK)
Well I wish that Wilson wouldn’t have gone off last week because now his ownership will be higher, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t in an elite spot. We can’t just fade him because he is popular. The Arizona Cardinals just gave up 38 points the Carolina Panthers, led by Kyle Allen. The Cards have given up about 300 yards and four touchdowns to the tight end position alone in three games (see Will Dissly below). I do tend to like Wilson better at home but the matchup is a little too good to ignore. I also like that Wilson isn’t afraid to run the ball and that Chris Carson is struggling with fumbles and with breaking tackles this year. Pete Carroll should focus on the passing attack here and that is going to benefit Wilson, the receivers and the tight end. The icing on the cake will be if Wilson vultures a touchdown from Carson in the Red Zone.
Mid Quarterback Pivot: Jared Goff
Punt Quarterback: Kyle Allen: ($6,800 FD; $5,200 DK)
Kyle Allen is going to get the start against the Houston Texans with Cam Newton still banged up. There is talk that if Allen continues to perform than he can officially take the job from Newton. That is all yet to be seen, but what we do know is Allen is getting another chance against the Texans defensive backs who are getting beat constantly. Last week they couldn’t hang with Keenan Allen who got 183 yards and two touchdowns. They have given up five touchdowns to receivers so far this season and are allowing opposing QBs to complete 70% of their passes. I do not expect Allen to throw another four touchdowns again this week, but I think he hits value. If you love paying up at the other positions you can pair him with Moore, Samuel, McCaffrey or Olsen in your Carolina Panthers NFL DFS stacks.
Punt Quarterback Pivot: Daniel Jones
Running Backs
Stud RB: Austin Ekeler ($8,100 FD; $8,000 DK)
He goes against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Ekeler has been one of the most impressive duel threat backs early in the NFL season. News just dropped that Melvin Gordon will join the team again, however he is not playing this week. Ekeler is going to get one last shot to start in this offense and make a case for more playing time once Gordon does get back on the field. He can not ask for a better matchup. The Dolphins can’t stop the run or the pass and Ekeler contributes in both. He has over six targets in the passing game every week and four total touchdowns. He has actually gotten more yards in each game as a receiver this season than a running back. Ekeler did not get in the endzone last game against the Houston Texans but this week he does it, at least once.
Stud Pivot: Christian McCaffrey
Mid RB: Marlon Mack ($7,300 FD; $6,100 DK)
Mack gets to lead the Colts backfield against the Oakland Raiders. Last week Mack only got 16 carries but was a bit limited with a calf injury. He was still able to get 4.6 yard per carry and found his way in the end zone. He struggled the week prior vs the Titans, but they have a very good defensive line (they have not given up a rushing TD this season). The first week Mack rushed for 174 yards and a touchdown vs the L.A. Chargers. I like the fact that the game is at home and I expect the Colts to be winning. If they are, that means Mack likely contributed. He will also be in charge of running down the clock in the fourth. I like the opportunity, price and upside for him this week.
Mid Pivots: Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Chris Carson
Wide Receiver
Stud WR: Keenan Allen ($8,100 FD; $7,600 DK)
What is there to say. The Chargers play the Miami Dolphins that have given up NIVE receiving touchdowns in only three games. Allen has gotten targeted over 10 times in every game this season and has an astounding 403 yards and three touchdowns. This is an elite matchup that is highly unlikely to fail. I don’t mind playing him and Ekeler in the same lineup. Punting Rivers with the two of them would make sense in NFL DFS.
Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, TY Hilton (if healthy)
Mid WR: Tyler Lockett ($6,600 FD; $6,300 DK)
His price is wayyyyy too cheap. The Cardinals let Kyle Allen throw four touchdowns on them last week, Lamar Jackson threw two the week before that and Matt Stafford threw three in Week One. Lockett has 14 and 12 targets the past two weeks and two touchdowns in the first three games. He is Russell Wilson’s favorite target. Lockett is a speedster that should have no trouble getting behind this Cardinals’ defense. I like paring Wilson with him and Dissly (or Metcalf) in my NFL DFS Seattle stacks.
Mid WR Pivots: Kupp/Woods, Golladay, Watkins/Robinson
Value WR: Sterling Shepard ($6,500 FD; $5,800 DK)
Shepard is healthy and now seems to have a more competent quarterback in Danny Dimes. Daniel Jones targeted him nine times in his first start, and will now need to focus even more on the passing game with Saquan Barkley going down. Shepard’s price is simply too cheap for being a highly used wide receiver one especially since he is going vs the Red Skins’ defense. Every Quarterback they have faced this season has throw for exactly three touchdowns. If it isn’t Shepard, then it should be Engram. A great matchup for a cheap price is a fantastic NFL DFS play.
WR Value Pivots: Cole Beasley, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Josh Gordon
Tight End
Stud TE: Evan Engram ($6,800 FD; $5,700 DK)
A lot of the same reasons I listed about Sterling Shepard apply to Evan Engram. He is constantly producing and has over 100 yards twice this season and two touchdowns. They play the Washington Redskins.
Stud TE Pivot: Travis Kelce
Value TE: Will Dissly ($5,400 FD; $3,600 DK)
The Cardinals are getting destroyed by tight ends. They have given up four touchdowns and about 300 yards in three games to the TE position. The Seahawks’ Will Dissly has three touchdowns in the past two games. The Seahawks also just traded away their backup tight end. It seems like the perfect NFL DFS scenario. All we need is for Pete Carroll to attack what works against this defense and not try and reinvent the wheel.
Defense
- Chargers
- Rams
- Baltimore
- Colts
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold Right Here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
