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The MLB Sweet Spot – Thursday July 4th

Welcome to a Triple Play Thursday here at Win Daily Sports. First off, happy 4th of July to everyone out there. It’s American’s birthday and we should give homage to those that gave us our freedom. Maybe even shoot off some fireworks, safely, for this special day! Secondly, I’m covering the day slate in DFS since we have 7 great games on the card. The betting card will feature bets from throughout the day and I’ve decided to open up my prop plays today to how I did last year when we brought home a big profit. So let’s go get at it and have ourselves a fun day on both the betting, DFS and home front.

Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.



The New York Yankees have not been swept in a 3 game series this season (note: they were swept in a 2 game series vs NYM). And yet, that’s exactly what they are up against today when they face the Reds in New York. And as much as I like the moneyline with NY, I think the over is the right spot for this game. First, the Yankees have just 11 hits so far in this series and are due for a breakout game. As mentioned below in the stacks portion of the DFS write-up, the Yankees tend to explode after poor performances. On the other side, Stroman is pitching for NY and has a 0.250 BABIP. That will regress to norm (closer to 0.300 MLB average). Additionally, his 3.29 ERA is paired with a 4.86 SIERA showing that regression is real and ultimately tied to the fortunate BABIP. Stroman is also in the bottom 4th percentile in fastball percentage and lives off mixing in his slider and splitter. The Reds hit the sinker well but also are top 6 against the splitter.

It’s hot out in the Big Apple, and these teams haven’t shown up from an offensive standpoint he first 2 games. I don’t see toth teams being held down again in this one especially against pitchers who pitch to contact in Stroman and Montas.


This one is all about pitching. And it’s Corbin Burnes turn to dominate the Mariners lineup. The Orioles have won the first two games in their series in Seattle and allowed a combined 1 run to the M’s offense. Both Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez allowed 0 ER’s in their starts. The duo also combined to strike out 16 Seattle batters in those two games.

Burnes is everything the O’s have wanted in an ace as he’s 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA (3rd best in MLB). He has one start against Seattle earlier this year and went 6 innings allowing 0 ER’s while striking out 11. I expect the dominance to continue today and Baltimore to walk out of Seattle with a sweep.


Underdog to Save the Day!

The Astros are arguably one of the hottest teams in the league, posting an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. They have catapulted up to 2nd in the AL West and trails the Mariners by only 2 games.

But the key to today’s play on the side of the Astros is SP Framber Valdez’s career numbers against Toronto. The Blue Jays lineup hits under 0.200 in their career against Valdez. He faced the Blue Jays back in April and pitched 7.2 innings of shutout ball.

Yes, Valdez has had a bad year and not pitched up to expectations. But outside of his last outing against the Mets, he had a 3.45 ERA in the month of June. Meanwhile, you have Chris Bassitt taking the mound for the Jays. His numbers have been solid in the past month, but he gets torched by the Astros. And that’s highlighted by Yordan Alvarez who is 8 for 18 with five homers in his career off the Jays SP.


RAFAEL DEVERS over 1.5 H+R+R (-135 DK) and over 0.5 RBI (+130 BET365)

Rafael Devers has three straight multi-hit games. Pair that with a 69% hard hit rate over the past 10 days and we have a hitter that is locked in. Today he faces Kyle Tyler who has primarily pitched in the opener role. He doesn’t strike out many, with a K rate under 20%, and has a WHIP of 1.22. So let’s dial up the Red Sox to put up some hits and runs today with Devers being in the middle of the mix.

CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ over 4.5 K’s (-180 DK), over 5.5 K’s (+110 BET365), and over 6.5 K’s (+210 BET365)

As mentioned below, Sanchez was the NL Pitcher of the Month in June. And he gets to face a Cubs lineup that is swinging, and missing, early and often. His off-speed pitches should work to his advantage today against an aggressive group of hitters and allow him to get ahead in the count. The Cubs are striking out at a clip above 35% vs LHP’s in the past two weeks. If Sanches gets to the 6th, we should have no problem with this ladder bet.



We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.


We’re looking at the 1:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 7.

Top Pitchers to Target:


The Phillies pulled off a remarkable feat in the month of June by having both the NL Player of the Month in Bryce Harper and the NL Pitcher of the Month. But no, that wasn’t Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola. That award went to Cristopher Sanchez who balled out with a 3-0 record and 1.64 ERA during five starts in June. And today he gets to face the Cubs who have managed just three runs off Phillies starting pitching in the first two games of this series. I don’t expect that to get much better today as the Cubs are struggling mightily at the plate over the past several weeks. That’s highlighted even more against LHP’s as they have the highest K rate (35.4%) and lowest batting average (0.195) against southpaws in the last 2 weeks. Add to that, Sanchez is 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in day games,


The Twins pitcher has pitched great over his last 3 outings. Bailey Ober has racked up 27 K’s in just 21 innings over that stretch which includes a complete game against the A’s. Ober has averaged 31.5 DK points in those three outings, with each one lasting a minimum of 6 innings. Today, he gets the Tigers who he’s already had two good outing against. In the Twins SP’s twelve innings pitched against Detroit, he’s allowed just 1 ER and struck out 9 batters. The Tigers are also batting 0.213 over the past 2 weeks, 5th worst in baseball. I like Ober to keep his hot streak alive, and be potentially the top arm on the board today.


Value Pitchers to Target:


The value range is a slippery slope today because of the quality of the options above $8K. But I do think Maeda has some upside potential especially at his salary. Maeda has one of the highest differences between ERA and FIP of any pitcher on the slate today. That points out his potential for positive regression. Maeda also faced the Twins earlier this year and went 6 innings allowing just 1 ER. The projected Twins lineup is hitting a collective 0.215 off Maeda with only Willi Castro batting above 0.300. At this price, 5+ innings and limited runs could get us almost 3x value. And based off prior history and some better play ahead, Maeda ranks out as a potential good play today on my card.


Top Stacks to Target:


For the Yankees, it is time to turn it on as they try to avoid being swept by the Cincinnati Reds today. The Yankees are now 5-12 in their past 17 games and haven’t won a series since their matchup with KC back in the middle of June. The New York bats have been quiet in this series as they’ve managed just 11 hits in the two games combined. But we saw something similar in Toronto as the Yankees bounced back with 16 run and 8 run games after disappointing outings. I’ll look to stack the big guys, especially with most SP’s below $9K today. So let’s go after Aaron Judge and Juan Soto then balance that out with Brendan Rice ($2800 DK), Gleyber Torres ($3500 DK) and Austin Wells ($3100 DK).


The Guardians get a bullpen game in Chicago today as they face off against Jared Schuster and the White Sox pen. And that’s music to our ears at the White Sox have the 6th highest bullpen ERA (4.40) and have allowed the 4th most home runs (35). I’ll look to start with Jose Ramirez then mix in Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Stephen Kwan, and David Fry. A sneaky good play is Brayan Rocchio ($3200 DK) at SS if he starts as he’s coming off a 17 point DK game.

Other Stacks to Consider: HOUSTON ASTROS, BOSTON RED SOX

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.


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