Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Thursday Win Daily Fam! We’re coming off a 2-0 night betting MLB giving us a +2.0 profit on the day. We’re starting to find a good groove in both our game bets and prop plays. So be sure to follow along in our Discord channel for my daily bets. As for DFS, I’ve been turning solid profits daily in GPP and Cash games. I feel like a big hit is coming so be sure to follow along closely. If it’s not me, I hope it’s one of you. So show those green screens because someone from our family is about to take one down!
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
On Monday, I showed the betting plus/minus numbers on the season. But today is Power Ranking Thursday and I’m here to share with you our own MLB Team Power Ranks. We’ve seen some movement at the top recently, but the Braves are back holding the Iron Throne. Our biggest movers over the last week are the Blue Jays and Royals who moved up a spot. Both are coming off solid weeks with Toronto winning three straight series and KC sweeping the Astros over the past week.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -145 vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS
To me, this is about the gap in starting pitching today. The Rays roll out SP Ryan Pepiot who has mixed results so far this year. But the talent is there as shown by his 10.9 K/9 inning rate. He also has a FIP that is 1 run lower than his ERA and an xERA that is 2 runs lower. Griffing Canning, on the other hand, has been hit hard so far this year allowing at least 4 ER’s in all three of his starts.
PROJECTED LINE: Ray -190 / 20% EV
DOG OF THE DAY: TEXAS RANGERS -105 at DETROIT TIGERS
PLAYER PROPS
JACK LEITER over 4.5 K’s (-135 DK)
Leiter’s much anticipated Major League Debut is happening today in Detroit as he takes the mound to face the Tigers. His K numbers have been great in the Minors this year (25 K’s in 13.1 innings). And he faces a Detroit team that has a 25.1% K rate, good for 7th highest in baseball. Let’s take the young gun today to impress and rack up more than 4.5 K’s.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – DANSBY SWANSON over 0.5 HR’s (+550) and over 1.5 H+R+R
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Dansby Swanson is batting 0.455 with a 0.27 slugging percentage against LHP’s this season. And he faces Miami LHP AJ Puk today which catches our eye from a positive matchup standpoint. He has a hard hit rate of over 33% and a flyball rate over 41%. Both are over key thresholds we like to see so this is a green light today in Chicago.
DFS – 1:10 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:10pm slate tonight as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
JACK LEITER ($9000 DK): The 2nd overall pick in the 2021 draft has been called up to make his major league debut today against the Rangers. While he’s struggled with control at various levels in the Minors, he’s seemed to work that out in early 2024. He’s the highest priced pitcher on the board, but in a small slate he’s worth a look due to his high K potential (25 K’s in 14.1 innings in AAA). Plus, rookie pitchers often have a leg-up in their initial starts due to hitters not having a book on their pitch movement and patterns.
RYAN PEPIOT ($8100 DK): The Rays SP has been either lights out or bust so far this season. His one game in Colorado showed his potential as he put up a 37.7 fantasy point outing. But his other two starts were downers as he scored a combined 13.7 fantasy points versus the Giants and Rangers. In those starts he’s been victimized by the home run ball. Luckily for him today, he’s facing the Angels who are in the bottom half of the league in ISO and Slugging. Outside of Mike Trout, LAA has just 13 home runs which would rank in the bottom 3rd of the league.
CARLOS CARRASCO ($7400 DK): On a thin slate, Carrasco will be worth a look today against a Boston team that has been struggling at the dish. They’ve scored 0 or 1 runs in 5 of their 15 games this month. And overall, they’ve been shutout 3 times on the season. They are batting just 0.227 as a team (26th in MLB) and strike out the 4th most in the league at 26.8%.
Top Stacks to Target:
RAYS: The Rays are trying to salvage a split in their 4-game series with the Angels today. And they get to face Griffin Canning who comes in with an ERA over 9.00. The Angels SP has allowed 21 hits in just 13.2 innings of work with five of those hits leaving the ballpark. Even though they’ve been struggling in the power department, I look for the Rays bats to wake up today and will roster Yandy Diaz, Amed Rosario, Harold Ramirez, and Jose Caballero. I’ll consider mixing in some of their other bats and get to five TB batters in some of my stacks.
RANGERS: The Rangers get to face Kenta Maeda who has a 6.00 ERA. And his FIP shows that hasn’t been an unlucky number as that is sitting at 6.53. The Rangers bats have been quiet in their series with Detroit but I look for that to change today and will have my eyes on bats like Seager, Heim and Garcia. I will also invest in either Langford or Carter with the preference on the latter. We’re still waiting to see the Rangers post their starting lineup.
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