Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Memorial Day Weekend to all of our Win Daily subscribers and followers. As we have our fun this weekend, please don’t forget to honor those that made the ultimate sacrifice for us. With that in mind, we have a great day of baseball ahead. The two hottest teams in baseball reside in the AL Central as the Guardians and Royals have won 8 straight games. And surprisingly, the Dodgers have lost 4 straight and look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Reds. I’ve analyzed those series and more and have the below bets and DFS plays for you on this Sunday Funday!
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
MINNESOTA TWINS -160 vs TEXAS RANGERS
The Rangers are in a free fall having lost 6 straight games. They were swept earlier in the week in Philadelphia and are at the risk of being swept again, today, in Minnesota. It’s so bad for the reigning World Series champs, that they are unsure who is starting for them today against the Twins (supposed to be Jon Gray’s turn but he is sidelined with a groin injury).
On the other hand, the Twins have now won 4 in a row. In that stretch, they’ve outscored their opponents by a count of 21 to 7. Pablo Lopez gets the ball today and we feel much better knowing that he’s home. His ERA in Minnesota is almost 3 runs lower than that on the road (3.49 to 6.00). And he’s better in the day, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.75 ERA versus a night record of 0-3 and an ERA of 8.38.
We’ll back the Twins to get the sweep and send Texas reeling further down the standing in the AL West.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS -110 vs CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
The Angels are one of the worst home teams in baseball. And the Guardians are winners of 8 in a row. Then look at the splits here as Cleveland is 13-3 in day games while LAA is just 4-14. So why is this a pick ’em line in most books? Angels pitcher Reid Detmers has an ERA north of 5.00 but his advanced metrics do show positive regression is on the way as his xFIP is 3.75 and SIERA is 3.67. So I’m going hang my hat, and my betting ticket, on the odd fact that the Angels are favored today in a spot they surely shouldn’t be. Sometimes, the line speaks more than the trends and stats.
DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +140 vs BALTIMORE ORIOLES
White Sox SP Garrett Crochet is on a hot streak. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 3 starts. And his ERA over his past 4 starts is 0.39. Coincidentally, the White Sox have won all four of those games. The Orioles have won the first 3 games in this series, but they’ve all been by 2 runs showing a competitive fight in the White Sox. I think this number has a lot of value because of Crochet and I’ll take the plus money today with the South Siders.
PLAYER PROPS
RANGER SUAREZ over 5.5 K’s (-125 BET365)
We all know how good Ranger Suarez has been as he’s out to a 9-0 start with a 1.36 ERA. But one thing slightly overlooked is he is 13th in the MLB in K’s with 68. He’s struck out 6 batters or more in six of his last eight starts. His opponent today, the Rockies, have the 5th highest K rate in baseball at 25.1%. And they faced Suarez earlier this year where they struck out 8 times against the Phillies LHP.
CHRIS SALE over 7.5 K’s (-120 BET365)
The Braves LHP is 10th in the MLB with 70 K’s. And as stated below in the DFS write-up, he has 28 K’s in his last 3 starts. The Pirates have been whiffing a lot lately, posting a 26.3% strikeout rate in the past 10 games.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.
Top Pitchers to Target:
CHRIS SALE ($10,500 DK):
The Braves SP has been lights out this season, but even more so of late. In his last 3 starts, he has a 0.00 ERA and has 28 K’s in 20 innings of work. He’s struck out at least 6 batters in every start this year and averages 26.2 DK points per outing. And the Pirates should be able to keep his strike out streak going as they have the 6th highest K rate at 25.4%.
TANNER HOUCK ($9100 DK):
The Red Sox SP is 7th in the MLB with a 1.94 ERA. He does it by throwing a heavy sinker and inducing a high percentage of ground balls (56.8%). And the Brewers should help that out as they have the 5th highest GB% in baseball at 44.4%. So this looks like a good matchup on paper for Houck to go deep and continue his streak of good pitching.
GARRETT CROCHET ($8500 DK):
There is always risk in attacking the Orioles lineup with an SP. But Crochet, as mentioned above, is on quite a roll with a 0.39 ERA in the month of May. Plus, he’s sixth in the MLB with 74 K’s so we can rely on him to get points based on his K potential. Additionally, we’re getting him at home where he has a 2.41 ERA (vice 5.63 ERA on the road) and has 50 K’s in 33.1 innings pitched.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: LOGAN WEBB ($8400 DK),
Value Pitchers to Target:
MICHAEL WACHS ($6900 DK)
Wacha has turned it up of late with 3 straight quality starts. He’s averaged 21.8 DK points in those outings and returned on average 3.0x value. The Rays bats have been quiet (batting 0.215 in past 10 games) and this could be a good spot for a value pitcher to rack up the points. Especially with the Royals on an 8-game winning streak.
HONORABLE MENTION: N/A
Top Stacks to Target:
BRAVES:
Martin Perez started off hot but has faded of late. In his last 4 starts he has a 8.26 ERA and has surrendered 8 home runs. The Braves look primed to keep his poor streak going so I’ll look to stack several players that have good career numbers off Perez such as Albies (4 for 4 with 2 HR’s), Ozuna (2 for 3), and Duvall (3 for 5). Of course, Acuna will be in the mix as well as d’Arnaud. A cheap option to round out the stack is Zac Short.
MARINERS:
Happy Patrick Corbin day! And we have a lineup stacked with righties to deploy against the Nationals soft tossing LHP. I’ll look to get Dylan Moore, Julio Rodriguez, and Mitch Garver the most exposure. I’ll also play Ty France, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco against the Nationals today.
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