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The MLB Sweet Spot – Monday May 27th

Happy Memorial Day everyone. And remember why this day is a holiday as we honor those who sacrificed it all for us. I had a rough day with game bets yesterday but hit two pitching props which helped ease the pain. We’ll look to get back on track today as we have a full slate of games including eight day games. The DFS market, on the other hand, was great as the five pitchers I had in my player pool ended up in the top seven in points scored. The value arm, Michael Wacha, went over 3x in value which is where we projected him. So let’s stay hot there and hit some bets to cap off the long holiday weekend.

Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.

GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -110 vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Yes, you read that right. I’m picking against my Phillies today as they open a series with the Giants in SF. First, San Fran is playing good baseball winning 8 of their last 10. They also have one of the better home records in the NL sitting at 15-10. But my primary reason for taking the Giants is because I have zero faith in Phillies SP Taijuan Walker. In his last start he could barely break 90 mph. He was pulled with 2 outs in the 5th because he had put multiple runners on base for the 3rd time in the game. And I still have nightmares of his one start in SF last year where he didn’t make it out of the 1st inning. Giants SP Blake Snell has struggled as well but is the reigning Cy Young and is tough against lefties. It’s just a wide margin in pitching quality that has me, regrettably, leaning to the Giants today.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS -150 at NEW YORK METS

The Dodgers have lost five straight after getting swept yesterday in Cincinnati. But a perfect remedy for a long losing streak awaits them today, the New York Mets. The Mets squeezed out a comeback win yesterday but are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. And they’re just 10-16 against teams above 0.500 this year. Also, the Mets won the series against LA last month when they played out west. So the Dodgers also have payback on their mind today. That’s double motivation for a team with high expectations. Which is a good reason to back the Blue today in NY.

DOG OF THE DAY: KANSAS CITY ROYALS +145 at MINNEOSTA TWINS

Underdog to Save the Day!

The Royals had their 8-game winning streak snapped yesterday and look to start a new one today. And the reason I like value in the Royals as dogs is because of Twins SP Joe Ryan’s poor home performance. Ryan is 1-3 with a 5.04 ERA in five starts at home. He hasn’t allowed less than 3 ERs in any of those starts. And the Royals offense is hot, batting 0.308 over the past week (best in baseball).

PLAYER PROPS

FRAMBER VALDEZ over 5.5 K’s (-135 BET365)

We will go to the PACNORWEST for this prop bet tonight. Thr Mariners have the 2nd highest K rate over the past week. And that is normal for the Ms as they carry the highest K rate for the entire season at 28%. Valdez didn’t get many Ks in his last start but did have 8 in the one prior to that. And he went over this number in 2 of 3 starts against Seattle last season.

JOSE RAMIREZ over 0.5 RBIs (-115 DK)

Ramirez has been on a hot streak batting 0.348 with 4 homers in the past week. He also has 11 RBIs in his past 6 games. The Guardians travel to Coors today and should be in line for a good offensive output. And the wind is blowing out to center which could boost those numbers even more. If that’s the case Ramirez will be in the middle of the action and have plenty of opportunities to add to his league leading 52 RBIs.

TBD

PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD

We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.

DFS – 1:05PM SLATE

We’re looking at the 1:05pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.

Top Pitchers to Target:

NICK LODOLO ($9800 DK):

The Reds SP returns after a short stint on the IL with a groin injury. He was on the IL to start the season as well, and in his first start back he racked up 34.4 DK points on 91 pitches. While you can’t project that level of performance again in his return from IL, the key number is the 91 pitches which does put Lodolo in the 6 inning range. And if that happens, I like his chances for a 25 points outing against STL. The Cards had to play deep into the night to hold off the Cubs last night (game ended around 12am).

CHRIS BASSITT ($8200 DK):

The Blue Jays SP is confounding. He’s had four starts with 20+ DK points (all wins). Then he’s had three starts with less than 10 DK points (all losses) while mixing in three more starts with an average of 11.5 DK points (all losses). The good news is he’s facing the White Sox who have one of the worst offenses in baseball. And Bassitt faced them last week throwing 7 shutout innings and getting a W. If he can keep the walks down (he’s 10% BB rate) then he should find success today as the White Sox have a 0.209 batting average over the past 10 games.

OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: ALEC MARSH ($8000 DK), CHARLIE MORTON ($8600 DK)

Value Pitchers to Target:

JUSTIN STEELE ($7000 DK)

It is very suprising to see Justin Steele struggle this year. But his advanced metrics show he’s headed towards positive outputs. His 5.68 RRA has a 3.93 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA. And while the Brewers lineup can hit homers, they’ve been cold of late at the plate carrying a 0.233 batting average over the past week. And it drops to 0.195 against lefties.

HONORABLE MENTION: N/A

Top Stacks to Target:

BLUE JAYS:

Toronto’s offense has finally woken up. They have a 0.276 batting average over the past week which is good for 2nd in the MLB. And they have the 2nd most runs scored with 41. Both Vladdy and Bo Bichette are batting over 0.400 on that stretch. So I’ll stack around them and add Varsho, Kiner-Falefa and Biggio.

GUARDIANS:

The Guardians have won 9 straight and it’s mostly been due to their dominant pitching. But Jose Ramirez is on a roll too, with 4 home runs over the past week. I’ll look to build a stack around him, Josh Naylor and Gimenez today as they head to Colorado to face the Rockies and soft tossing Austin Gomber.

Other Stacks to Consider: LA DODGERS, KC ROYALS

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.

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