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The MLB Sweet Spot – Monday June 24th

Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. We’re coming off a scorching weekend both weather wise and betting. Over in the northeast we saw temperatures reach close to triple digits. But here at Win Daily, we also saw an 8-1 weekend of MLB bets posted on Discord and X. Today brings us a big card to choose from and we’re ready to keep the hot streak going and turn it into a heat wave. So check out our bets below as well as DFS plays to help turn your screens GREEN!

Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.

GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS

SAN DIEGO PADRES -195 vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS

We’ll start with a big favorite, but it’s one I like a lot due to the Padres past history against Nationals SP Patrick Corbin. As noted in the DFS Stacks section below, San Diego hitters feast off Patrick Corbin. Add to that he is 3-7 in his career in Petco Park. On the flip side, SP Matt Waldron is pitching great baseball and posting a 1.71 ERA this month. The Padres are 5-2 in his last 7 starts as the only two losses were when they scored 2 runs or less. I don’t see that happening tonight against Corbin so let’s back the fathers of San Diego to win their series opener with Washington tonight.

GAME 2: TBD

Will be posted by 3pm EST.

DOG OF THE DAY: N/A

Underdog to Save the Day!

PLAYER PROPS

TBD

TBD

PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD

We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.

DFS – 7:10 PM SLATE

We’re looking at the 7:10pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.

Top Pitchers to Target:

COLE RAGANS ($10,100 DK):

The Royals SP has been on a role of late, racking up six quality starts in his last seven outings. In fact, in his nine starts since May 1st, he’s only had one that last less than six innings. So he’s a reliable workhorse that can go deep in games. And that’s important tonight since he faces off against the Miami Marlins who have the 2nd least runs scored in the MLB. Add to that, their splits against lefties rank near last, or dead last, in most major hitting categories. They are 28th in batting (0.223), 30th in ISO, 30th in wOBA and 30th in wRC+. This lines up to be a plus matchup for Cole Ragans tonight.

MATT WALDRON ($8300 DK):

The Padres SP has quietly put together an impressive string of eight starts. Since getting knocked around by Arizona on May 5th, Waldron has a 4-2 record with a 1.82 ERA in those eight starts. And he has 47 K’s in 49.1 innings of work during that stretch. The knuckleballer is very effective at mixing in his mysterious pitch with a slurve, change and fastball that can hit low 90’s. Tonight he gets the Nationals who have been playing well, but they’ve yet to see Waldron and that will be to his favor. At this price and based on his recent prolonged stretch of good pitching, Waldron is near the top of my player pool.

OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: TANNER HOUCK ($10,500 DK), FREDDIE PERALTA ($9500 DK)

Value Pitchers to Target:

JAMES PAXTON ($7700 DK)

James Paxton is coming off his best game in Dodger blue where he posted 32.0 DK points against the Rockies. He’ll be targeted tonight because of his soft matchup with the Chicago White Sox. What’s held him down most of the year is the low K rate, sitting around 15%. But he was able to rack up 8 K’s last game, which was by far his most in one outing this season. And that was attributed to an increased usage in his knuckle curveball which got a 47% whiff rate against Colorado. He ended up with just a three-pitch repertoire, ditching the sinker and cutter for a primary fastball and knuckle curve attack. So I’m going with Paxton because of the matchup, but also the implied probability that his K’s should continue to rise with a different gameplan as shown last week.

HONORABLE MENTION: CARSON SPIERS ($6400 DK)

Top Stacks to Target:

PADRES:

Happy Patrick Corbin Day! While the Nats pitcher has been better of late, he’s still susceptible to the blow up game, as he’s had five games of five ER’s or more this season. And opponents are teeing off on him with a 0.307 batting average and 12 home runs on the season. The Padres haven’t hit lefties particularly well this year but have a lineup constructed to do so. Which is witnessed by their career numbers off Corbin. The core of the Padres lineup has a 0.413 batting average off the Nats LHP. So I’ll look at Machado (7 for 21 off Corbin), Tatis (5 for 9 off Corbin), Profar (3 for 7), Ha-Seaon Kim (4 for 11), and Luis Arraez (2 for 6).

BRAVES:

The Braves are coming off a successful series in New York as they took two of three from the Yankees. Tonight they get to travel to St Louis and tee off against Lance Lynn who has allowed 20 hits and 12 runs in his last three starts. In fact, the Cardinals SP has a 6.11 ERA this month and has not made it past the 5th inning in any of his four starts. I’ll look to get some value bats and heavy hitters in the stack tonight. I’ll start with Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson but also look at Jared Kelenic and Sean Murphy to round out the stack.

Other Stacks to Consider: ROYALS, ATHLETICS

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.

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