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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

The MLB SWEET SPOT 8/18/22: DFS and PROP BETS at Win Daily Sports

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We had another really good day but Trea Turner, like Pete Alonso on Tuesday, held us back from a great day. But it’s good seeing the information we collect still work for the majority of our plays. So far this month, we have posted a 50-34 record with a +12.7 unit return.

There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.

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For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 5 games to choose from. There are 6 games early so pay attention to the start times with regards to our recommended plays today. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.

NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +36.8 units

PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start

JACOB DEGROM ($10,300 DK) – The Degrominator is back and even better than we remembered. In his last two starts he’s averaged 36 DK points on only 76 pitches. He’s racked up 22 K’s in those two starts over just 11.2 innings (almost 2 per inning). Today, he faces the Braves who he just dominated 10 days ago when he flirted with a no-hitter until it was broken up by a Dansby Swanson home run. The Braves are a very good offense (3rd in wOBA, 8th in wRC+) but they strike out a lot as they are 2nd in the MLB in K’s (1097). So there’s every reason to believe we’ll see another game with close to 10 K’s which makes this price to cheap to pass down even if he’s on a pitch limit again.

YU DARVISH ($9000 DK) – When Jason and I provided the early look for the card, both McClanahan and Eovaldi were scheduled to start for their teams. Both have been scratched for minor league callups. Which changes my strategy completely as I will now look to pair DeGrom with a reliable arm. And that arm is now the one of Yu Darvish. For one, he’s a steady performer that hasn’t scored less than 15.3 DK points since June 1st. That is 12 straight starts of 1.5x value or more. And secondly, he’s facing the Nationals who have a mediocre offense (21st wOBA, 22nd wRC+). Darvish just faced the Nats and put up 9 K’s over 6 innings of work. This feels like the safest play outside of DeGrom and I will feel comfortable pairing the top two arms based on the rest of the pitchers on the card.

KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)

JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($6900 DK): Our value pitcher last night was great last night as Jordan Montgomery put up 26.55 DK points notching 3.9x value. Tonight, we’re going with JT Brubaker against the Red Sox. Brubaker’s record doesn’t truly reflect his performance. He is 2-10 but his 4.45 ERA is met with a 3.80 FIP. His WAR is 1.7 which is the same as Luis Garcia of the Astros who has a 9-8 record and a 4.03 ERA. Brubaker does have K value too as his K rate is 22.9% and K/9 is 9.29. His opponent tonight is the Red Sox who are 20th in batting average, 19th in ISO and 23rd in wOBA this month. I do see some value here and potential for Brubaker to put up a quality outing.

BONUS PICK: I do like MAX FRIED ($8500 DK) tonight against the Mets. First off, this is his lowest price since June 3rd in a start at Colorado. All he did in that outing was put up 24.3 DK points. Secondly, even though he is just 1-2 against the Mets this year and averaging only 15.3 DK points per game. But his ERA against NY is just 3.17. His problem has been walks as he’s allowed 6 free passes to Mets hitters. If he can fix that, I think there is potential for Fried to be the 2nd best pitcher tonight. Remember, the Mets don’t hit in games pitched by DeGrom.

HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM

MANNY MACHADO ($5800 DK) – Machado is 9 for 19 with 5 home runs off Anibal Sanchez. Additionally, Sanchez has allowed a HR in every start this season and has allowed multiple HR’s in 4 starts.

RANDY AROZARENA ($4700K) – We have to attack Royals starter Carlos Hernandez who is being recalled from Triple A to pitch tonight. Hernandez started 9 games this season and has a 9.08 ERA and has not allowed less than 2 ER’s in any start. Arozarena has been trending well in August as he has 4 home runs and 14 RBI’s over 13 games.

SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Rays today. It’s the juiciest matchup on the board. Plus it will allow us to roster any combination of DeGrom, Darvish and Fried. I’m looking at hitters such as Yandy Diaz, Lowe, Choi, Paredes, Walls, Peralta or Ramirez.

SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER)LESS THAN $3K

OSWALDO CABRERA ($2000 DK): The Yankees called up their prized prospect, Oswaldo Cabrera, before yesterday’s game. While he went 0-4 in his MLB debut, we can’t ignore the fact that he hit 0.375 in his last 15 games in the minors. Tonight he gets to face Jose Berrios who has allowed 13 ER’s in his last two starts (good for -16.8 DK points).

MLB PROP BETS

NEW YORK YANKEES over 4.5 runs (-110 DK)

GIANTS vs DBACKS NRFI (-135 DK)

ST LOUIS CARDINALS over 2.5 runs F5 (-120 DK) – Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 5.50 ERA on the road. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or more in 7 of his last 9 starts.

LUCAS GIOLITO over 2.5 earned runs (-150 DK) – Giolito has started 9 games at home as has allowed 3 ER’s or more in 6 of those outings. That’s a sweet spot to attack with the best offense in the league.

CORBIN BURNES over 7.5 K’s (-110 DK) – Burnes has gone over this number in 9 of his 12 home starts.

ANDREW HEANEY over 1.5 walks (-120 DK) – Brewers are 4th in walk rate and walk 9.7% of plate appearances versus LHP’s.

JACOB DEGROM under 3.5 hits (-110 DK) – No team has exceeded 3 hits this year on DeGrom. And only 4 of 15 exceeded this number last year (26.6%).

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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