We’re off to a 7-4 start to our week with posted bets/props here at WinDaily (26-15 in July). It’s exciting that we have a big slate on Thursday with several aces going. Rostering the top arm will be difficult with but we got you covered here and in other articles at WinDaily.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
The night slate starts a 7:05 pm with 11 games to choose from. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +29.0 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
CORBIN BUNES ($10,600 DK) – He’s the highest priced pitcher on the slate tonight but it’s for very good reason. Corbin Burnes has been red hot of late averaging 29.4 DK points per start in his last 5 outings. In those 5 contests, he’s pitched an average of 6.2 innings with 8.5 strikeouts. Tonight, he faces the San Francisco Giants who he saw back in April. In that outing he went 6.2 innings and allowed just 2 hits with 0 ER’s and 11 K’s. Even better news is that Burnes has been much better on the road this year as his ERA is just 1.62 away from Miller Park. He has allowed 12 home runs on the season but that gets neutralized in San Francisco as Oracle Park is ranked 26th in Home Run factor over the past 3 seasons.
Burnes has a great opportunity to keep up his hot streak tonight against the Giants based on his recent form and history against SF.
CARLOS RODON ($9300 DK) – Staying the same game as our #1 today, Carlos Rodon is facing a Brewers lineup that is 27th in batting average against LHP’s this season (0.223). The Brewers rely heavily on the longball as they are 4th in baseball with 122 home runs. But tonight, they have to face Rodon who has allowed just 4 home runs on the season (and only 2 in SF). Additionally, as mentioned prior, Oracle Park is one of the hardest to hit a home run (in fact it is the hardest in 2022 with only 0.779 home runs per game).
Add in Rodon’s recent masterful performance against the Padres (CG, 12 K’s) and we have a great situation to use the Giants starter. One final piece to consider, this is the lowest total on the board tonight at 6.5. So I can see a situation where you could play both Burnes and Rodon.
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($9700 DK) – If there is ever a pitcher with a high floor, it is Framber Valdez tonight. That’s because he is on a streak of 14 straight games with 6+ innings and 3 ER’s or less. Or simply put, 14 straight quality starts for the Astros lefty. The Angels got to Cristian Javier yesterday, but they also struck out 10 times against Javier in just 3.2 innings. I think there is high value once again in an Astros starter as Trout may be out of the lineup which weakens an already very weak lineup. Angels are 30th in batting average, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in July.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
ADRIAN SAMPSON ($6800 DK): Kutter Crawford is very intriguing tonight based on his recent performances and his matchup. First, in his last 4 appearances (all 4+ innings) he has a 2.32 ERA and is averaging 18.4 DK points. In that same span, he has 24 strikeouts over 19.1 innings. So he’s fit in nicely whether it’s a spot start or a long relief role. Tonight, he gets the Rays who are 10th in K rate in July as they are striking out 23% of the time. Crawford also saw they Ryas just a week ago in a long relief role and pitched 5.1 scoreless innings with 8 K’s.
BONUS PICK: I like TRISTON MCKENZIE ($8400 DK) tonight against the Tigers. McKenzie has allowed 0 ER’s over 13 innings in his last 2 starts (26.4 DK point avg). That was coming off 13 ER’s in just 10.1 innings in his prior 2 starts. So, he has figured something out and gets to employ that against the Tigers tonight. Last time he saw the Detroit he went 7.2 innings and allowed just 2 ER’s with 8 K’s.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
TEOSCAR HERNANDEZ ($4200 DK) – Hernandez is coming off a 2 home run game against the Phillies on Wednesday. In fact, he is on a 5 game hitting streak where he is batting 0.533 with 7 RBI’s. Tonight he gets one of the weakest arms on the slate in Jackson Kowar. Look for the Blue Jays to continue their recent hot hitting and Hernandez should be in the middle of it all.
JOSE RAMIREZ ($5500K) – Ramirez is facing Elvin Rodriguez from the Tigers tonight. Rodriguez owns a 11.51 ERA and has allowed 18 ER’s in his last 2 games. This should be a sweet spot for the Guardians offense and especially Ramirez.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: Obviously based on the above Toronto and Cleveland will be in play for a stack. But I also like the Los Angeles Dodgers in a stack tonight. Dakota Hudson had a good outing his last time out but before that he had allowed 22 ER’s in his previous 5 starts. With Betts back in the lineup the Dodgers offense is rolling as they have scored 24 runs over their past 3 games. I like that to continue tonight and will look at bats such as Betts, Freeman, Turner, and Bellinger.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
NOLAN JONES ($2000 DK): I’m back on Nolan Jones in this spot as he faces Elvin Rodriguez and his 11.51 ERA. Last time we used Jones, he put up 20 DK points for us. While he may not get that many tonight, I expect him to be in the mix and put up 4 to 5x in value.
BLAKE SNELL over 1.5 BBs (-190 DK) –
NESTOR CORTES over 15.5 outs (-130 DK) – Cincy is 21st in wOBA and wRC+ against LHP’s this season.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS over 4.5 runs (-130 DK) –
FRAMBER VALDEZ over 18.5 outs(-105 DK)
BREWERS/GIANTS No Runs First Inning (-160 DK) – T
CORBIN BURNES over 7.5 K’s(-175 DK) –
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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