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Xander Schauffele

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Mexico Championship

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and helping you find some winning teams!

The PGA DFS picks this week focus on the more expensive golfers, and many of my value picks are European tour regulars who may prefer this layout and its surfaces to the Americans.

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Course Notes:

Stacked tournament field of 70 golfers
No cut event
The course: Club de Golf Chapultepec (in Naucalpan, just outside Mexico City)
7,330 yards, Par 71, but elevation (7,600 feet) makes it much shorter
Poa annua greens, more Kikuyu
Parkland style: Tree-lined fairways favored by European golfers
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (won in 2017 & 2019)
Course comp: Crans-sur-Sierre Golf-Club in Switzerland (Omega Masters)
Focus Stat Categories include Strokes Gained: Approach; Opportunities Gained; Bogey Avoidance; Birdie or Better %; Proximity from 125-150, Par 4s: Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,200) – He’s almost guaranteed a Top 10 finish this week, all things considered. He’ll have a huge advantage off the tee and putting is less important on these surfaces. Rory is my pick to win this week and I’ll be around 40-50% again in GPPs.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – If Rory is my 1A favorite, DJ is my 1B. Anything shy of a Top 3 finish will likely hurt us if Rory ends up winning (because of the much tougher pricing this week). Johnson is guaranteed four rounds here barring some type of injury, and his talent and ball-striking should shine through.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,600, FD $11,800) – “Rahmbo” finished third here in 2017 and could see lower ownership than the other high-priced studs. T17 last week and no TV coverage of his Sunday round could affect recency bias and make him a great GPP choice.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – He finished T23 after carding a 69 on Sunday in the Genesis, but really struggled with his putter – a common theme. If we toss that out and get a little better flat stick performance from him, he’s a great bet for the Top 5.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – He’s a GPP-only and he didn’t fare too well here last season. If he’s made the necessary math adjustments and can putt a little better this week, we could see the beefier Bryson fare quite well.

Also consider: JustinThomas, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – No more discounts this week for guys like Louis – who would have come in well under $8K. He’s a perfect GPP play who’s improved each time he’s played here.

Paul Casey, (DK $8,700, FD $10,700) – I like him for one of the same reasons as Oosthuizen (continued improvement in course history), and he’s putted well here in the past. He’s a ball-striking madman and could get popular.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,600, FD $10,300) – Three straight Top 15s here with Top 10s in his past two. If his putter gets hot, we could see a breakthrough weekend and a pretty good return on our investment.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300, FD $10,100) – The biggest question mark with Gary is SG: Approach, which is, unfortunately, an important focus stat this week. He’s a GPP play for me on lineups where I’m looking for balance and a slew of Top 15 guys with upside.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($8,000, FD $9,600) – The price increase wasn’t too bad (+ $300 on DK), and I doubt we’ll see ownership eclipse 10% this week. I’m still waiting for his breakout performance of 2020, and this could be the week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – RCB suits our profile here and finished third in 2018 when he posted four rounds in the 60s (good for a DK bonus). His form is solid enough (T17 last week at Riviera) and another Euro golfer we have to consider.

Also consider: Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Coming off two MCs at the European Tour’s desert venues, Wiesberger will see much lower ownership than the 23rd ranked player in the world (who’s won three times in the last year) on a course that fits him like a golf glove. And his pricing on both sits is very affordable.

Tyrell Hatton (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Hatton has played well here but it’s his first start of 2020 following wrist surgery. Let’s hope for a limited number of rough lies than a be complicated by the spongy and thick Kikuyu.

Kurt Kitayama (DK ($7,200, FD $8,800) – Kitayama finished T18 at Pebble Beach after a T6 finish in the desert in Dubai. He’s a world traveler with plenty of experience on different surfaces, so I think his frustration level could be lower than others in the field.

Kevin Kisner (DK ($7,200, FD $9,400) – He could easily become frustrated with the putting surfaces, as he much prefers Bermuda – but Kisner is a gamer with three straight Top 30s at this event (his best finish here was 11th in 2017).

Charles Howell III (DK ($7,100, FD $9,500) – Finished 14th here in his tournament debut last season and has the length and ball-striking prowess to post another solid Top 20, but I’m not going overboard like folks did last week when he disappointed and finished T59.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – It’s hard to say how he’ll adjust to the elevation and perform in his debut, but he’s a good fit, and he’s talented enough to shine in his WGC debut.

Lee Westwood (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s really turned his career around and has played here a couple of times (28th in 2017, 33rd in 2019). Won in January at the Abu Dhabi HSBC over Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez – three other golfers I’ll have shares of this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – He’s got a shot at a Top 20 finish, and for this price, I’ll have some exposure in GPPs. It was encouraging to see him make the cut and finish among the Top 40 last week in his Genesis debut.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,600, FD $8,200) – I don’t have much interest in the golfers under $7K this week, but I’ll have some exposure to EVR again after he missed the cut last week.

More value golfers forGPPs: Matt Wallace, Danny Willett, Christian Bezuidenhout,Carlos Ortiz, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Jorge Campillo

5 years ago 0 comments

Insight Sheet: The Genesis Invitational

5 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Genesis Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Players priced between $12,000 and $10,000

Rory McIlroy $11,600 (M1) – Number one in most people’s models, so there is no surprise here. What is surprising is the price tag might be scaring off some ownership. Could possibly be the third-highest of the bunch for the Genesis Open.

Jon Rahm $11,200 (M19) – Rahm and Tiger might compete for the lowest owned of the big dogs and I don’t understand why. A ninth-place finish last year and he’s coming off three top 10s. I’ll take the ownership discount.

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Hideki Matsuyama $9,300 (M7) – Matsuyama arrives at the Genesis Invitational with both recent form and good tournament history. He comes in the top 10 in both my scoring metric and course setup.

Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M5) – There will be no ownership disparity in the 9K range this week as they should all see roughly the same percentage. What Schauffele does bring to the table is good course history and top 10 rankings in Scoring, Course setup and the satellite stats.

Tony Finau $9,100 (M10) – Finau has been playing lights out lately with decent tournament history. Im assuming a balanced build will be the way most build and Finau should be right in the mix. Number one in recent form and a second-place showing in 2018, I’ll have plenty of Finau this week.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Jason Day $8,800 (M15) – Doesn’t have much of a history showing outside of a T64 a few years back but is coming in hot. Over 20 strokes gained total in his last two events alone. Back seems to be feeling fine, but people may want to see him one more time before going all in. Now’s the week to play him before his price and ownership skyrockets.

Marc Leishman $8,700 (M41) – Leishman will be a GPP play for me this week but I like what I see in both tournament history and recent form including a win at the Farmers. Coming in at sub 10% ownership he’s a nice pivot off of Rose.

Jordan Spieth $8,400 (M24) – I’m still a bit skeptical to play Spieth overall with him missing my core. With that said, his game is trending in the right direction and he has solid tournament history. If he’s projecting to be over 10 – 15 percent I may pivot but if he can come in under that mark, I’ll have enough shares.

Collin Morikawa $8,100 (M32) – He’s never played at the Genesis Invitational before. Historically first-timers tend to struggle, but I think Morikawa can buck that trend. I don’t know if he can win but with such a reduction in price, he doesn’t need to. **Edited** Morikawa is projected to be close to 30% owned, I don’t know if I can stomach that. I might be pivoting off of one of my favorite players.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,400

Paul Casey $7,900 (M9) – Casey is coming into the Genesis Open with less than stellar recent form. With this said he’s still made three straight cuts. What Casey does carry coming in is great tournament history. Pair that with a top 10 rank in Strokes Gained stats and Casey, who I feel is underpriced severely, is an excellent pivot from Morikawa.

Ryan Moore $7,600 (M50) – Moore is never a sexy pick. Probably doesn’t have enough upside to win, but for cash, I don’t know if you can do any better. Moore is consistent especially here at the Genesis Invitational where he’s made four out of his last five starts including two top 10.

Max Homa $7,500 (M16) – Homa comes in with the 4th best mark in Strokes Gained in recent history. Three top 15 with a T14 last week at the AT&T Pro-Am. He got an $800 decrease in price and NO ONE is talking about him. Last year he finished T37 so he has some positive history here and I’ll continue to ride the hot hand.

Scottie Scheffler $7,400 (M83) – Unlike Homa, I feel Scheffler is more of a GPP only play. Should be below a 5% ownership threshold and I’m willing to see if he can find his early-season success here at the Riviera.

Players priced between $7,300 and $7,000

Joaquin Niemann $7,300 (M17) – Niemann is a play on stats move for me. He finished T44 last year at this tournament and has three straight cuts, though nothing too exciting. His stats through will fill up a sheet any day of the week. At 10% ownership, he’s worth a shot to see if his finish can catch up to his stats.

Russell Knox $7,200 (M21) – Knox burned so many last week, myself included, that no one is gonna play him this week. He’s never played this course and that’s a decent-sized red flag especially since he isn’t considered an elite talent. With that said, his run before the MC was incredible and I think he can get back on track.

Jason Kokrak $7,100 (M6) – Kokrak’s recent form leaves something to be desired but his history at the Genesis Invitational is wonderful. Five straight cuts including two Top 20 and a T2. If he was coming in hotter, he would be priced in the mid $8,000. Take the discount and ownership (minimal) and move on.

Erik Van Rooyen $7,000 (M18) – In his last four-stop on the PGA tour in 2019(three of which were majors) he gained over 20 strokes Tee to Green. I play him in GPP whenever I get the chance and you should too.

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 With such soft pricing this week I’m hesitant to play anyone in the $6,000 range outside of MME tournaments.

Charley Hoffman $6,700 (M33) – Hoffman missed the cut last year here and is coming off a cut at the AT&T Pro-Am but otherwise is pretty reliable. Three straight made cuts before last week with a top 10. Hoffman also had four straight cuts made here including a T4 in 2017.

Nick Watney $6,600 (M22) – What a dismantling of Watney on the back nine of the third round last week. His cut cost me so much but that won’t stop me from going right back to him this week. Two straight cuts at the Genesis Invitational and has gained strokes Tee to Green in eight straight contests.

Luke List $6,600 (M59) – List has solid course history and is coming off two straight cuts. Like the other two plays above him, you can do much worse in this price range.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Genesis Invitational. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Open at Riviera CC

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Genesis Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Your PGA DFS picks this week should focus on including both stars and scrubs lineups and a more balanced approach.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Stacked tournament field of 120 golfers (invitational)
Tourney host Tiger Woods tees it up along with 119 other golfers he hand-picked to include many of the world’s best
The course: Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles, CA
7,322 yards, Par 71
Poa annua greens, Kikuyu grass in fairways and rough
Long par 4s, long approaches (many at 175+ yards)
Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending champ: J.B. Holmes
Course comp: Quail Hollow
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Around-the-Green; Driving Distance; Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500; Proximity: 175-200

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,600, FD $12,200) – The new No. 1 player in the world, and the betting favorite, Rory checks all the boxes at Riviera. He hasn’t yet won here, so I’m personally hoping for a Rory-Tiger showdown on Sunday.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – JT remains one of the favorites to win here, and while I won’t be all in, there’s plenty of reasons not to fade him – including two straight Top 10s (a second-place finish last season among them).

Tiger Woods (DK $10,400, FD $11,600) – This was the site of his first PGA event (way back in 1992 when he played as a 16-year-old), but he’s never won here. I’d love to see him breakthrough with his first victory, and he certainly has the game and profile to do it. I’ll just be happy to come in slightly ahead of the field in terms of GPP ownership.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800, FD $11,400) – I love him this week, and while I’m not alone in that regard, I’ll be sure to be well ahead of the field in terms of ownership. If Koepka and Rory make 40-50 percent of my GPP builds, Cantlay will be next at around 35-40 percent.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,400, FD $11,500) – The fact that Koepka missed the cut here in his only try (2017) will keep his ownership down, but it’s hilarious that he’s cheaper than both Tiger and Bubba Watson. I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs for this grinder on a grinder’s course. He’s second on my rankings after Rory.

Adam Scott (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – Scott isn’t as exciting as many of the other golfers in the $9K range, but he’s had a good track record here and won the Australian PGA Championship in December. There could be some rust, but I still like him for his Par 4 (450-500) stats.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama

My model rankings show studs up top and some value plays like Carlos Ortiz, Bud Cauley and Erik Van Rooyen filling out the Top 25.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,100 to $8,900):

Marc Leishman (DK $8,700, FD $10,500) – Leishman, like the next golfer on our list, has all the attributes we look for at Riviera, and with a reduced price because of the studs clogging the “elite” cost range. I’m far from all in, but it won’t be a complete fade.

Justin Rose (DK $8,500, FD $10,700) – He’s an excellent ball striker who outclasses a lot of the field on long approaches. He makes for a solid GPP play considering his MC at the Farmers and T4 finish here last season. A solid Top 10 bet with winning upside.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – I think he’ll make the cut and he’s a weekly threat to finish Top 10. He should excel here because of his SG: ARG stats, and I’m not too concerned about him missing the cut here last season in his first try. We’ve seen guys fare poorly here a first-timers and figure it out quickly.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($7,700, FD $9,700) – I’m betting on Fitzy shaking off the bad week on the roller coaster that is the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and getting right back to what he does best – firing low scores and filling out GPP lineups with enormous upside.

Kevin Na (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – We can’t count him out based on his course history T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017). I’m not the biggest fan of his game and I’ve been burned by his WDs before (haven’t we all?), but there’s plenty of value here.

Branden Grace (DK ($7,500, FD $9,600) – Do you like discounts? Grace’s price has dropped $1,800 since last week, and we can take advantage of the soft pricing and roster this South African golfer who has gone on record that he likes this track for its similarity to his home courses.

Joaquin Niemann (DK ($7,300, FD $9,400) – We saw a Joaquin do well in LA at the Oscars, and now it’s this guy’s turn to shine and rise like a Phoenix. He fits all the focus stats categories with the glaring exception of SG: ARG, but he managed to make the cut and finish 44th here last year as a first-timer. Clearly a GPP-only play, Niemann will make about 10-20 percent of my builds.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – If you’re looking for a great value play, look no further than Kokrak, who’s popping on all my models for his balance of ball-striking and distance and is 5/5 here with a T2 in 2016. If the short game comes through he could make an appearance on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Charles Howell, Ryan Moore, Max Homa, Cameron Champ, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Hadwin

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,000 and under):

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,000, FD $8,800) – Full disclosure – I use Van Rooyen a lot in GPPs and love his combo of ball striking and distance. He’s not the best around the greens, so he’s always an X-factor for that reason and not my favorite cash gameplay.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,800, FD $8,400) – He might be popular this week, especially if folks are looking at course history and the same focus stats as we are. Carlos putts well on poa annua and ranks well on long Par 4s (450-500).

Martin Laird (DK $6,500, FD $8,000) – Another horse for the course, Laird loves the West Coast and had three straight Top 15 finishes here from 2016-2018 before missing the cut in 2019. He ranks 23rd in the field on Par 4s (450-500), and he’s quite a bargain.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,400, FD $7,300) – I had to change one number from last week’s writeup: “I like that he finished ~~T10~~ T7 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.”

Talor Gooch (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Gooch is a cut maker and he’s finished in 20th place in his only appearance here in 2018. He’s incredibly cheap and should be a staple of my GPP builds.

Luke List (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – List was one of the hottest golfers in DFS back in 2018, and he’s had his share of ups and downs. But he’s coming off a couple of made cuts and decent play at the Farmers Insurance Open (T36) and Waste Management Open (T25) and he’s played well at Riviera. A GPP filler who has a decent shot at making the cut and finishing Top 25.

Sung Kang (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – Kang is one of many Korean golfers who seem to play well at Riviera, which has similar turf to the native grasses on their home courses on the other side of the world. He’s got plenty of upsides this week.

More value golfers for GPPs: Bud Cauley, Brian Harman, Patrick Rodgers, Sam Burns, Steve Stricker, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Brian Stuard

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5 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Jon Rahm $11,400 (M4) – This selection came down to Rahm and Thomas. Rahm gets a slight edge, with his recent form and course history being a little better. Slight.

Webb Simpson $10,300 (M8) – Simpson comes in sixth in DK scoring within the field. Will have a slight ownership discount to Matsuyama.

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,900 (M3) – Despite coming off a missed cut at the American Express, Schauffele scores out well here at the WMPO. Could be a nice pivot off of Matsuyama as well.

Collin Morikawa $9,200 (M5) – This is my boy, you could read the previous week’s breakdowns for how I feel. Morikawa was 100% in last weeks tournament until a horrible back nine on the third round.

Bubba Watson $9,000 (M11) – Watson’s showing last week was a bit surprising as him showing up again in the model. I’ll ride the hot hand, see if we can catch lightning in a bottle again.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Brandt Snedeker $8,900 (M45) *GPP* – Snedeker has four straight cuts at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and is fifth in the field in Strokes Gained over the last five week. Doesn’t show up well in my model but at sub 10% ownership, I’ll take a shot.

Sungjae Im $8,800 (M25) – Im will be popular but that’s okay. Coming off three straight made cuts including a T10, Im’s price is just too low.

Branden Grace $8,700 (M60) *GPP* – Like Snedeker, Grace isn’t exactly popping off of the stat sheet. With that in mind, he placed second last year and may have found his game on the Euro tour recently.

Scottie Scheffler $8,500 (M17) – Game should setup well here at the WMPO and despite a missed cut last week, Scheffler comes in ranked fourth in SG:TOT over the last five weeks.

Viktor Hovland $8,400 (M19) – Hovland has the distance and hit it fairly straight. Gaining traction in the industry won’t push me off of him.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,200

Jason Kokrak $7,900 (M7) – Made some moves last week before ultimately fizzing out. Kokrak’s lackluster finish will hopefully keep his ownership suppressed.

Zach Johnson $7,300 (M20) *GPP* – Johnson, hasnt performed well recently but has made five straight cuts at the WMPO. He even had three straight top 15 finishes just a few years back.

Rory Sabbatini $7,300 (M22) – Sabbatini might become a GPP play before lock as hes only been playing ok both in recent form and tournament history. Where he shines is his course profile where he’s seventh in the field in DK scoring.

Adam Hadwin $7,200 (M24) – Hadwin is solid all around. Top 20 in Dk points, T2G, stats model and has four straight made cuts. A good start to a cash lineup as his popularity is on the rise for the WMPO.

Denny McCarthy $7,200 (M50) *GPP* – 15th in Strokes Gained Total in the field, McCarthy relies on his putter to get it done. When the putter is a heavy focus, GPP status will always be implied.

Players priced $7,100 and below

Aaron Wise $7,100 (M12) *GPP* – Here we are again with Mr. Wise. My kryptonite if you will. Shows up everywhere in the model this week. 10th in scoring, 19th in TOT and 17th in T2G. What sold me was FanShareSports CSR ranking of 2nd in the field. I’ll have my usual sprinkle.

Matt Jones $7,000 (M31) *GPP* – Jones is a nice salary relieve player. I don’t know if he has what it takes to take down the Waste Management Phoenix Open but he should be able to hold his own.

Doc Redman $6,600 (M18) *GPP* – Should be a GPP play but his price and his performance somehow has his ownership rising. Ar 9% possible ownership, pivoting somewhere else wouldn’t be a bad idea perhaps.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 132 golfers
TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7261 yards
Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
The cut has been between Even Par and +2 the past six years
Medium course difficulty (24/48 in 2019)
Bermuda greens
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4s: 450-500, SG: Around the Green, Approach, Proximity to Hole, SG: Putting, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $12,100) – Rahm went to Arizona State and just finished second at Torrey Pines. He’s 4-for-4 at the event and his worst finish is a T16. He’s the betting favorite at 6-1, a lock-in cash game and I’ll have him in about 40-50 percent of my GPPs.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,900) – Always in the mix, Thomaslost some momentum when he missed the cut at the Sony, but I’m willing to throwthat performance out because of the brutal conditions. He’s also had somestruggles at this event, so maybe we get a break on his ownership? His eliteball-striking makes him a fine GPP play.

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,500, FD $11,500) – Fowler is the defendingchamp and has finished 1-11-4-2 in his last four tries. He should contend againif he can right the ship after his MC in San Diego and get his putter going.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,100, FD $11,300) – Matsuyama has won here twice (2016 and 2017), finishing 15^th here last season. He checks all the boxes in my models and is actually a bit of a bargain considering his course history.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – We know how good his putter is, and with the form decent and 4/4 on his last four cuts here, he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

Branden Grace (DK $8,700, FD $10,200) – In his first appearance at TPC Scottsdale last year, he finished solo second place, and there are no major weaknesses that should have him in big trouble here. A worthy play in all formats.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,400, FD $10,500) – Hovland checks all the boxes except around the green, and I think folks have forgotten about him a bit. He’s long enough and straight enough off the tee to employ either strategy, and he ranks well in SG: Approach. As you can see in the graphic below, he’s showing up in the models put together by Win Daily’s Patrick Waters too. I’ll have heavy GPP ownership this week.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) –.Another player who’s popping on my models, Moore’s yet to break through with a Top 10 here but is priced well and is an excellent ball striker. A risk-reward GPP mid-range value play.

Byeong Hun An (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – An is similar to Moore in that he’s a good ball striker who gets held back by his putter. This is a good venue to help rectify that and he’s 3-for-3 here so far.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,500) – Despite missing the cut here last season, Steele loves the venue and has three Top 20 finishes, including a solo third in 2018.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Chez Reavie, Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Zach Johnson (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – A proven veteran with solid course history and an affordable price tag.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – I’m a Grillo fan and he’s 4-for-4 here. If he can get the putter blazing, who knows?

Martin Laird (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Laird will see pretty high ownership because of his amazing course history, so we might steer clear in large-field GPPs to differentiate.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,900, FD $8,000) – He’s played well here the last two years with a 5th place finish in 2018 and a 20th place finishes in 2019, and he’s showing up in my models along with an affordable price.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – When Stuard goes flag hunting, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upsides. He’s super-cheap and looks like a good fit with the course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Beau Hossler, Max Homa, DennyMcCarthy, Danny Lee, Brian Gay, Chris Kirk

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5 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Farmers Insurance Open: Insight Sheet

5 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Farmers Insurance Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Players priced $10,000 and above

Rory McIlroy $11,600 (Model #1) – McIlroy stands out on his own in the model. Will be high owned but should come in with lower ownership than a few up tops.

Xander Schauffele $10,100 (Model #3) – Elite ball-striker who tends to play better with stiffer competition. Farmers Insurance Open is the first case of a tougher field.

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Hideki Matsuyama $9,900 (Model #2) – Started out as a top owned candidate, but has tailed off as the week progressed. Good recent form and course history.

Gary Woodland $9,500 (Model #9) – 5th in the field in gaining strokes at Torrey Pines over the last five years. Two top 10s his last two tries out.

Tony Finau $9,300 (Model #14) – One of the top DK points scorers in the field with next-level ball-striking ability.

Patrick Reed $9,200 *Pivot* (Model #10) – I expect all three of the above golfers to be highly owned. Reed can provide both salary and ownership relief with the ability to contend with the rest at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Collin Morikawa $8,900 (Model #23) – Has yet to miss a cut. I will most likely play him every week until he wins.

Scottie Scheffler $8,800 (Model #39) – Has been on an absolute tear, expected ownership to be around 10%.

Joaquin Niemann $8,600 (Model #19) – Good ball-striker who had a better 2019. I hope he rounds back in form this week.

Billy Horschel $8,100 *GPP ONLY* (Model #77) – Good tournament history but coming off a couple of missed cuts. Herschel should have sub 5% ownership.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Russell Knox $7,600 (Model #7) – Knox has good form and course history. I don’t know why he gets overlooked but I’ll take his 10% ownership.

Byeong An $7,700 (Model #8) – He failed us last week, which really hurts after his hot start. Going back to the ball-striker with a bad short stick.

Bud Cauley $7,600 (Model #12) – Coming off a T4 at the American Express, Cauley is another low owned play. It could be a cash play with a T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Jason Kokrak $7,700 (Model #13) – Like An, Kokrak was a disappointment last week. Unlike Byeong though he never had it together. Third in the field in ball striking.

Emiliano Grillo $7,800 *GPP ONLY* (Model #46) – Mr ball-striker himself, he has the biggest difference between T2G and TOT. If he could ever get hot with the putter, watch out!

Keegan Bradley $7,300 *GPP ONLY* (Model #36) – Essentially, Bradley is a better version of Grillo. The same thing applies to his game. Perhaps Torrey Pines is where he can put it all together.

Francesco Molinari $7,900 *GPP ONLY* (Model #27) – Clearly played much better last year than his recent performances. This is more of a bet on talent.

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000

Kevin Streelman $6,700 *GPP ONLY* (Model #30) – Hasn’t been playing the greatest lately, but did make the cut three years from 2018-2016.

Sapp Straka $6,900 (Model #34) – Straka is coming off a T4. Probably the highest owned 6K player for the Farmers Insurance Open.

Brandon Wu $6,300 *GPP ONLY* (Model #50) – The forgotten rookie from the 2019 class. He has a chance to prove himself this week.

Trey Mullinax $6,000 *GPP PUNT ONLY (Model #17) – Had a T25 last here at Torrey Pines. I doubt he wins but perhaps this week’s Andrew Landry.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Farmers Insurance Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Farmers Insurance Open: The Range

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour stays in California as the players face off at the Farmers Insurance Open.

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The Basics

Course(s): Torrey Pines South and North
Par: 72
Length: South – 7,698 yards, North – 7,258 yards.
Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua, 4,500 sq ft in size, below tour average.
Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye. Rough will be at three and a half inches.
Architect: William Bell originally with a redesign in 2001 (Rees Jones) and later the North Course in 2016 (Tom Weiskopf).
For a hole by hole breakdown of the South Course, click here.
For a hole by hole breakdown of the North Course, click here.

Like last week this will be a course rotation. Each golfer will get a turn on both the North and South course for the Farmers Insurance Open. After the cut (Top 65 and ties) on Friday, golfers will play the remaining weekend on the South Course.

Course Breakdown

Last year the FIO played easier than expected and the winning score was in the low 20s. Previous years the top golfer finished between six to 13. I think the scoring comes back down from years past and with that in mind, let’s look at the top 10 golfers who perform well on average to difficult scoring courses.

On the South course more so than the North course golfers will find hitting the fairways to be troublesome. Most of the fairways are narrow than tour average with trees on both sides. Here are the top golfers in the field when it comes to OTT (off the tee) on hard to hit fairways.

Coming off of Bermuda, the field of golfers will have to contest with Bentgrass greens with Poa Annua. Let’s look at some of the best golfers with dealing with the greens here at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Here are the top 10 golfers with all three course conditions factored in.

Player Fit – Back end

North Course – Farmers Insurance Open

The hardest holes on the course are Par 4 between 450 – 500 yards. The easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 between 500 – 550 yards. Being able to avoid bogey on the Par 4 and birdie on the Par 5 will be critical. With the North course playing shorter golfers should have a smaller iron or wedge in their hands for the second shot. Look for golfers who do well between the 150 – 175-yard range for proximity. Birdie or better will be huge on the North course though it gets played only once out of the four days, assuming the golfer makes the cut.

South Course – Farmers Insurance open

This is where the two courses have a similarity. The toughest holes to play on the South course is between 450 – 500 yards on the Par 4. Par 5 also plays as the easiest but they range from 550 – 600 yards. Golfers will have to be able to play the second shot with 200+ yards in most cases. While opportunity gained should always be used, Bogey Avoidance will be getting applied here. Being able to avoid the big numbers will be key to making the cut and advancing on the weekend.

Below is the top 10 golfers with all player traits evenly weighted for the FIO.

Final Recap of the Farmers Insurance Open.

This tournament is the first of the year that we have a truly loaded field of top-end talent. Players that have been high priced over the start of 2020 will see their pricing suppressed greatly outside of the studs. Just because they’re cheap now doesn’t necessarily make them a good value.

Course Setup
Average to difficult scoring conditions
Hard-hitting fairways
Bentgrass with Poa Annua

Player Efficiencies

North Course –
Par 5 500 – 550
Proximity 150 – 175
Birdie or better

South Course –
Par 5 550 – 600
Proximity 200+
Bogey Avoidance

Farmers Insurance Open Overall –
Par 4 450 – 500
Opportunity Gained
Scrambling

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stats source: FantasyNational

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re picking apart the field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and looking for big winners!

PGADFS Course Notes:

Tournament field of 34 golfers (winners from 2019)
Cut: No-cut event
Played at Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in Hawaii: 7,518 yards, par 73
Course was renovated in 2019 by course designers Ben Crenshaw & Bill Coore
Greens larger to accommodate more pin locations, fairway bunkers more of an issue on tee shots
Focus Stat Categories: Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Putting, SG: Approach, Birdie or Better%
Past Champions: Xander Schauffele (2019), Dustin Johnson (2018), Justin Thomas (2017) & Jordan Spieth (2016)

The Picks:

Elite PGADFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $11,900) – Rahm is the tourney favorite and both a great course fit and strong golfer in all formats. He’s a cash game lock and my favorite to win this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,700) – Thomas is a closerunner-up, and my shares of him will be close to Rahm. There are simply noflaws in his game, he hits it a mile and he’s riding high off the President’sCup win. Lock him in as a pivot to Rahm, unless you’re going studs and scrubs –an option we’ll explore in one of our sample builds.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,100, FD $11,200) – You’re getting adiscount on DK because of his rough 2019, which included both injury andsubstandard play. DJ’s length will play here – he just needs to roll in someputts and get that old dominant feeling back.

Gary Woodland (DK $9,300, FD $10,400) – Woodland is a sneaky pick this week. He likes the course and he’s at 16-1 odds to win this event, so that’s something to consider. Woodland was playing well in the Hero World Challenge but closed with a one-over-par 73 in the final round to finish T7. He’s certainly got the game for this track.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay

Mid-RangePGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Cameron Champ (DK $8,200, FD $9,700) – Champ is another bomber who’s a feast-or-famine PGA performer. This week he’s relatively safe to deploy, and his ownership shouldn’t be through the roof since he’s a little pricier than many of the more popular names below him. He finished 11th here last season.

Brendan Todd (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Todd had a breakthrough in 2019 with two wins and three Top 10s, though he’s always been known as a guy who can go really, really low. The Pittsburgh native will be a long way from home, but he finished eighth in 2014, he can move it off the tee and the guy can be an absolute demon on the greens. Todd makes for a decent GPP special this week.

Corey Connors (DK $7,800, FD $8,900) – The Canadianhas six top 25s in his last eight starts and had a solid2018-19 season with a win, four top 10s and seven Top 25s overall. His puttingand reasonable price make him one of my core plays in both cash and GPPs.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,900, FD $9,100) – Wolff might get popular this week, but his raw talent makes him a strong consideration for GPPs. Don’t get distracted by the wonky swing – this young man is an elite ball-striker who’s both long off the tee and a capable putter.

Also consider: Paul Casey, MattKuchar, Joaquin Niemann

Value PGADFS (DK Under $7,500):

J.T. Poston (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Hopefully J.T. will be “Poston” some low scores, am I right? The North Carolina native hit his stride in 2019 with a win, three Top 10s and nine Top 25s – finishes that bode well considering his low price.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – I doubt that Munoz will attract much ownership, so he’ll be a staple in my GPPs. The Colombian’s game checks all the boxes and he’s affordably priced on both sites.

Sung Kang (DK $6,600, FD $7,600) – Kang is a crazy bomber who should enjoy this course. I have a feeling he’ll be popular because of the stars and scrubs strategy, so he could be a fade option if you don’t believe in his admittedly bizarre game. Again – he probably won’t win and there’s some fade equity, but I’ll be using him in the 1/5 lineups where I lock in two $10K+ studs on DK.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,500, FD $7,000) – Another golfer bound to be popular this week as folks desperately search for value, Griffin closed out the year with a couple of poor showings after winning the Houston Open. I think he’s underpriced.

More value golfers for GPPs: Keith Mitchell, Max Homa

The PGA DFSFades:

Xander Schauffele (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – He won last year, and he’sgoing to be very popular, but Xander’s game has shown some cracks recently. I’mnot picking him this week.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,700, FD $9,000) – Kisner has a 9th and a 17th here in two tries, but he’s not the stat profile we’re looking for on this course. He also tends to be a popular play because he’s decent against strong fields, so I’m fading him.

Graeme McDowell (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – He’s a familiar name, but this isn’t the venue for him. I love the guy and his attitude, but it’s best to stay away on courses over 7,500 yards in length.

Also fading these lower-priced guys: Jim Herman, Martin Trainer, Tyler Duncan

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPPlineup (stars and scrubs):

Jon Rahm ($11,400)

JustinThomas ($11,200)

SebastianMunoz ($7,100)

KeithMitchell ($7,000)

SungKang ($6,600)

LantoGriffin ($6,500)

($200left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

JustinThomas ($11,200)

RickieFowler ($9,500)

CameronChamp ($8,200)

J.T.Poston ($7,400)

SebastianMunoz ($7,100)

SungKang ($6,600)

($0left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (large-field):

DustinJohnson ($10,100)

MattKuchar ($8,400)

BrendanTodd ($8,100)

MatthewWolff ($7,900)

CoreyConnors ($7,800)

LantoGriffin ($6,500)

($1,200left)

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Goal: 16.5, Prize: 1.5x

These three (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Gary Woodland) rank among the top golfers on the tour for making birdie or better, so getting an average of six sub-par holes a piece from them will get us to 18. If you’re really feeling frisky, go for the 2x payout!

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the second leg of theAsian swing with for the inaugural ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan. Let’s find somegems!

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PGA DFS — Course Notes:

Course:Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club (Par: 70 – Yardage: 7,041 – Greens:Bentgrass).
Tree-lined, zoysia fairways with threepar 5s and five par 3s, with water in play off the tee on three holes and fivetotal – and a bunch of greenside bunkers.
No-cutevent featuring 78 golfers: 60golfers from last year’s FedExCup standings, 10 from the Japan Golf Tour, and 8sponsor invites.
Loaded field with 12 of the Top 20 inOWGR participating.
FocusStat Categories are Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee (cross-referencedfor accuracy), Strokes Gained: Approach, Scrambling, Sand Save %, Par 4 Scoring.
Rain and wind expected this week, so we may grab some folkswho play well in those conditions.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – He won last week in Korea and checks most of the boxes this week. I won’t have massive ownership given the high price and need for a Top 3 to be worth the price, but he’s hard to fade.

RoryMcIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,300) – Rory said the course really meets his eye off the tee, ashe’s a fan of tree-lined layouts, and the last couple of days he’s been righthere playing in the MGM Resorts The Challenge Japan Skins. He’s one of the top dogswhen it comes to Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, as he’s the best driver of the golfball in the game, and he seems to be enjoying himself alongside his friends inJapan.

HidekiMatsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,200) – Matsuyama is right at home on thiscourse and is one of the few who has experience with the layout. A great ballstriker who’s a perennial leader in the focus stat categories, he’ll be popularthis week. He’s also beenplaying here a lot this week in the skins event and eventhough he’s one of the betting favorites, I’ll have shares in all formats.

Paul Casey (DK $10,100, FD $10,700) – Casey is good fit for this golf course as he was eighth on tour in SG: Approach in this past season and he won at the Valspar on Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course – a correlated course. He plays well in rain, played badly in the Italian Open and he’s also kind of expensive – making him an excellent GPP play who should garner low ownership this week.

AdamScott (DK $9,900, FD $10,600) – Much like Casey, Scott could easily fly under the radar athis price point. But he’s a savvy play and good course horse as he’s a regularfinisher among the elite in SG: Approach. The poor showing at the Shriner’swill keep most of the field off him, so I’m buying.

TommyFleetwood (DK $9,800, FD $10,400) – He plays well in theseconditions and has no problem competing with the world’s best. He’s got seventop 20s in his last nine starts worldwide since The Open Championship and he’sa closer who plays well in the final rounds of a tournament – something thathelps in no-cut events. I’ll likely have massive shares sicne ownership wiollbe low after he finished just T20 last week.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8,000to $9,400):

Victor Hovland (DK $9,400, FD $10,000) – Hovland’s insanesub-70s round streak came to and end in Korea, but he’s still a betting favoritewith plenty to prove on the PGA Tour – and he’s not going to carry the ownershiphe did in last week’s event.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,300, FD $10,500) – If he can avoid the long rough and keep it in play, there’s no reason Tiger can’t play well enough to win. He’s been playing the Skins Game this week after getting his knee cleaned out and is optimistic about his chances in the upcoming events. He needs just one more win to tie Sam Snead for most career PGA TOUR victories at 82.

Tony Finau (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Finau might be my favoritegolfer this week at any price. He checks all the boxes in all the stat categorieswe’re focused on, and he’s playedwell at his most recent events (T9 at Shriner’s and T10 at Alfred Dunhill Links).Narashino has some bizarre, undulating bentgrass greens (he likes bentgrass andthey’ll be using alternating sets of the greens in different days) and thattends to favor the consistency of the longer clubs in the bag, where Finaushines.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,400, FD $9,300) – I am loving this price onOosty, who finished second at last year’s Valspar and is seeing his firstaction in a couple of months since concluding the 2018-19 season with four straight top 20s. He’s great offthe tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who should perform well inthis loaded field.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,200, FD $9,100) – Niemann has fared well as a ball-strikerand rates well in SG: Off the Tee. He also won a few weeks ago but scrambles outof the sand well and ranks inside the top-20 in Par-4 scoring average. Niemannmakes the short hop to Japan after a top-12 finish at The CJ Cup in Korea lastweek.

Also consider: Sergio Garcia, Sungjae Im, Adam Hadwin, Shane Lowry (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $8K):

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Wolff played badlyin Korea and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, but I’m a sucker for aredemption story. A talent like this coupled with a price drop means I’ll be grabbingplenty of exposure in GPPs and counting on him for a Top 20 finish.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD $8,600) – Reavie is another across-the-boardperformer in our focus stats and he’s relatively cheap on DK this week. Hemight be more of a cash game value play at this price, but I’ll be using him ina few GPPs.

Charles Howell, III (DK $7,300, FD $8,600) – A long and accurate hitterand bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howell ischeap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt onthis unfamiliar layout.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,100, FD $8,200) – Sabbatini plays wellon the course corollaries and is a modest $7,100 on DK despite a T10 at theItalian Open and a T31 finish last week in Korea. I use him in a lot of GPPsand rarely regret it.

Nate Lashley (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – Another under-the-radarpro who finished T20 last week in Korea, Lashley plays well on similar layoutsand seems to be enjoying the PGA Tour after his breakthrough win last season. Arelatively steady performer, he’s guaranteed to9 be low-owned and has upside inGPPs.

Value golfers for GPPs: C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, JoelDahmen, Bubba Watson, Wyndham Clark

Also consider: Andrew Putnam, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Abraham Ancer, Dylan Frittelli

The PGA DFS Fades:

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,000, FD $9,600) – It pains me to fade him,but I’ll have much fewer shares of Fitzpatrick than usual based on his pricejump and unknown course conditions. He also might draw additional ownershipfollowing his one-stroke defeat at theItalian Open, which was his fifth runner-up finish in 11 months. I do like him,but my exposure will be diminished.

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,900, FD $7,900) – He’s a poor bad-weathergolfer and I’m expecting a letdown after a T12 last week in Korea. Palmer alsostruggles with Par 4 scoring and is making a lot of lists as a top value play thisweek, so he might be highly owned. If I was entering 150 lineups I’d have himin 3-5, but he’s far from a core play in this field.

Also fading: Daniel Berger and Jason Kokrak

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Patrick Reed (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)

“Everyone else seems to be hanging out with friends outthere, having a good time – but he’s probably just by himself, miserable. I’veseen snapchats of golfers in groups out in the city to eat sushi, but not him.”– Mark “Spades” Spada

Oh man, Spades! That’s so mean — and incredibly appropriate for a guy who hates his own family and is universally loathed on tour. Those sentiments also remind me of one of my favorite Neil Young songs, which I just listened to last night on vinyl.

Reed says he’s “thrived” since committing to more feel and embracing his fundamentally unsound golf swing. He’s gone T36–T15–T4 on the European Tour and has been playing okay, but I think he’s out of his element on this course.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

P. Casey ($10,100)

T. Fleetwood ($9,800)

T. Finau ($9,200)

S. Lowry ($8,000)

J.T. Poston ($6,600)

C.T. Pan ($6,200)

PGA DFS – Sample DK Cash lineup:

J. Thomas ($11,800)

S. Im ($8,800)

R. Moore ($7,800)

C. Reavie ($7,400)

A. Putnam ($7,400)

K. Streelman ($6,700)

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6 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: The Open Championship

Patrick Waters 6 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock with all of your DFS PGA needs. This week at the The Open Championship, you’ll find the model’s Top 50, Vegas odds, Data Golf World Ranks, key stats and my personal player pool. Player picks and the model use DraftKings pricing. It should be noted, players are picked as an overall play. Players can and should be used for all DFS sites.

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Players priced between $12,000 and $9,000

Rory McIlroy – $11,600
I don’t think I need to go into too much detail here. Top Five in every stat except one, major history, he’s 10th. Vegas’ odds on favorite and I do not believe the pressure of playing at home will affect him. (Projected Ownership – 18%)

Brooks Koepka – $11,400
After the U.S. Open, I’m buying into the idea that Koepka plays for the majors. At this point I think it’s foolish not to play him in some capacity. Until this streak ends I’ll be riding Koepka for every major. It’s interesting to note that The Open Championship, has seen his worst finishes though. (PO – 12%)

Xander Schauffele – $9,500
I’m sure he doesn’t like to hear it, but he’s a mini Koepka. It won’t be until he wins a major that the title will drop. Always shows up in the biggest contests, despite form coming in. Like Brooks, I doubted his ability to turn it on when needed. No longer. (PO – 13%)

Patrick Cantlay – $9,000
Number four overall in my model. Cantlay is Top 15 in every stat. He played in the British Open last year and finished 12th. He’s been on a tear as of late, finishing 15th, 21st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd & 9th his last six tries. I’m expecting Cantlay to be one of the highest owned golfers if not the highest. (PO – 24%)

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,500

Adam Scott – $8,800
Scott might as well be an the older Cantlay or vice versa. Either way they’re evenly ranked in the model. Scott has more Open Championship history but doesn’t quite have the recent form as Cantlay. Don’t get me wrong, his recent form is great, 7th, 2nd, 8th and a 18th finish. Expect Scott to be almost as highly owned as Cantlay as well. (PO – 22%)

Matt Kuchar – $8,700
He might be evil, but I don’t care. Kuchar has been having his best season. He’s number two in my model this week, with both event history and recent form leading the way. Will most likely be a staple in cash games this week. (PO – 20%)

Hideki Matsuyama – $8,500
Three Top 20s in his last six attempts in the Open Championship. Six Top 25’s in his last six starts. You can probably pencil him in for a Top 20 and watch him climb the leaderboard on Sunday. (PO – 20%)

Players priced between $8,400 and $8,000

Henrik Stenson – $8,400
If you’ve read The Range article you saw Stenson as number one overall in strokes gained total. Even better than McIlroy, technically. Deadly accurate with his three wood off of the tee. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Stenson contend this week at the British Open. (PO – 20%)

Gary Woodland – $8,200
Woodland has a great stinger in his arsenal. What he doesn’t have is the greatest track record at the Open Championship. It hasn’t been terrible, just very up and down. Woodland has been playing well this season though. I don’t know if he wins this week but it eerily feels like the U.S. Open all over again. (PO – 8%)

Matt Wallace – $8,100
Wallace has been playing well, both on the PGA and Euro tour. Plays well at the majors, though he didn’t place well in his only attempt at the British Open. 11th on the Euro Tour in birdies and 39th in Tee to Green. I like Wallace as a lower owned golfer. (PO – 10%)

Louis Oosthuizen – $8,000
For some reason people do not like to play Oosthuizen for DFS. Actually I know why, he tends to pull himself out of the race early. He’s been known to withdraw after lock, burning lineups along the way. At $8,000 though he has decent recent form and a former winner, almost twice. Ill take the risk for the upside for this lower price tier. (PO – 8%)

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Marc Leishman – $7,700
Price wise I feel this is the perfect spot for Leishman. Just a solid player with good event history and recent form. The 21st world ranked player by DataGolf standards. If things break his way, we could see Leishman atop the leader board come Sunday. (PO – 13%)

Webb Simpson – $7,600
Simpson comes in 8th on my overall model. He’s also the 8th ranked player in the world according to DGWR. Comes in with good form and solid major history. A complete game and if I could wager, my card would probably start with Simpson (65/1) for the Open Championship. (PO – 16%)

Matthew Fitzpatrick – $7,600
Fitzpatrick won’t be found on the model’s Top 50. He resides at number 64th overall. His lack of success at the British Open is whats holding him back right now. He has a 14th and a 2nd on the Euro Tour to go along with his 12th and 21st finish in the U.S. Open and Masters respectively. I believe his form and momentum are heading in the right direction. (PO – 7%)

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Tyrrell Hatton – $7,400
Always a Twitter clip away from showing the world how funny he is or what a bonehead mistake he just made. Hatton is coming off of five made cuts on the PGA and a 14th place finish at last weeks Scottish Open. Rounding into form at the right time. Though if his ownership seems to be rising I might pivot elsewhere. (PO – 8%)

Hao-Tong Li – $7,300
Solid Open Championship history with two made cuts and a 3rd place finish. Two out of three made cuts on the Euro tour as well with two Top 15 finishes. Li is 1st in birdies, Top 10 in both Par 4 & 5 scoring and 9th in strokes gained off the tee on the Euro Tour. (PO – 5%)

Chez Reavie – $7,100
Is there a golfer with more disrespect than Reavie? Comes in making five out of the last seven cuts, including a win at the Travelers. Not to mention his 3rd and 15th place finish at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship respectively. He’s clearly priced wrong, DGWR has Reavie rated as the 23rd best golfer right now. I’ll have plenty this week. (PO – 7%)

Erik Van Rooyen – $7,100
Rooyen has better Vegas odds than 14 golfers above him in pricing. EVR played at the Open Championship last year and finished in 17th. Three Top 20s in his last six starts on the Euro Tour. He also has a 43rd and 8th in the last two majors in the U.S. Wiesberger might be playing really well, but he’s never fared well at the British open. I’ll take Rooyen and a fraction of the ownership over Wiesberger. (PO – 10%)

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000

Andrew Putnam – $6,600
Will need to get it done with his approach and putting game to play on the weekend. No Open Championship history but did come in 4th at the Scottish Open last week. Been trending up in the last month or so. I think he keeps the arrow pointing up this week. (PO – 5%)

Lucas Glover – $6,500
If there was ever a play that I thought was a trap it’s Glover. Number 13 in my model this week, he’s Top 40 in every metric. He should be at LEAST another $1,000 more this week. It looks like a free space, feels like a trap. Becareful. (PO – 7%)

Andrea Pavan – $6,400
European Tour only, Pavan has been playing very well. In his last eight starts he has two Top 25, a 15th and two Top 5 on his resume. A flier only but I’ll take a chance. (PO – 2%)

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Stat source: FantasyNational

6 years ago 0 comments

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Xander Schauffele

Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Players priced between $12,000 and $10,000

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,400

Players priced between $7,300 and $7,000

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 **With such soft pricing this week I’m hesitant to play anyone in the $6,000 range outside of MME tournaments.**

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Genesis Invitational. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,100 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,000 and under):

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,200

Players priced $7,100 and below

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Players priced $10,000 and above

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Farmers Insurance Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

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The Basics

Course Breakdown

Player Fit – Back end

North Course – Farmers Insurance Open

South Course – Farmers Insurance open

Final Recap of the Farmers Insurance Open.

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PGADFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGADFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-RangePGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Value PGADFS (DK Under $7,500):

The PGA DFSFades:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPPlineup (stars and scrubs):

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (large-field):

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day – Play these and get 100 Percent Matching Bonus!

PGA DFS — Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8,000to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $8K):

The PGA DFS Fades:

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

PGA DFS – Sample DK Cash lineup:

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Players priced between $12,000 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,500

Players priced between $8,400 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000

Thank you for reading. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

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Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 With such soft pricing this week I’m hesitant to play anyone in the $6,000 range outside of MME tournaments.

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