The FedEx Cup playoffs are here! The PGA Tour heads to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship and the team are back to draft PGA DFS line-ups against YOU the audience.
Special live stream this evening as David (@DeepDiveGolf) to give a weather update on Hurricane Debby and what impact this will have on the Wyndham Championship.
Over the past decade or so, whenever we preview the Wyndham Championship the real prize for many of the golfers has been the retention of their PGA Tour card. Although the main cut-off this year is the Top 70 for the FedEx Cup Play-offs, a number in this field will also have ensuring their place with the Top 50 on their mind. That grants them entry into the BMW Championship and, subsequently, all of the big money Signature Events in 2025.
Should golfers reside outside the Top 70, they still have a final chance to retain their playing privileges. They will return for the PGA Tour Fall Series, playing through until November to ensure they remain in the Top 125 players and the music keeps playing for another year. It promises to provide an electric atmosphere, and not least because the threat of former Hurricane Debby (now downgraded to a tropical storm) looms large over the Wyndham Championship which we will preview in our weather analysis.
It was another fabulous week for our golf betting tips at the Olympics, continuing a run of excellent results.
Among our first-round leader selections, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, and Sepp Straka, we saw remarkable performances. Matsuyama, tipped at 33/1, successfully claimed the first-round leader position, while Tom Kim finished a commendable third, cashing a FRL Top 5 at 7/1. Straka also delivered a notable performance, finishing as an honorable 6th.
Matsuyama’s journey didn’t end there; he went very close to winning the tournament at 35/1 for us, eventually securing a bronze medal. In a bogey-free 65, his putter went cold down the stretch. Despite a number of birdie looks, he finished with 6 consecutive pars and finished just two strokes off Scheffler’s winning mark. He cashed a full-place for us at +875.
Tom Kim was selected as our DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater to finish within the Top 10 at +275. He duly delivered, securing our 5th Bookie Beater cash in 6 tournaments. Unfortunately, he does mean he didn’t secure his much desired exemption from military service in South Korea. Hopefully, he manages to achieve that in the coming years and we don’t see a promising young career derailed.
Scottie Scheffler remains a problem. What will be most concerning for his competitors is that he won the Gold medal in Paris whilst losing strokes putting. That is just the 4th occurrence in the last 4 years where that has been achieved. In the final round, he tied the course record at Le Golf National without really looking like he broke a sweat.
However, give me Matsuyama 35/1 or Tom Kim 30/1 in contention over Scheffler at 4/1 any day. He would need to win in those circumstances 7 times more often, suggesting betting value still continues to lie elsewhere.
We have plenty of data to delve in this preview of the Wyndham Championship, with Sedgefield Country Club having hosted this tournament for the last 16 years.
Further, the recipe for this course is rather straightforward. That is driving accuracy, short to mid iron acumen, and the ability to find a hot putter.
The course is characterized by its tight fairways and undulating greens, where accuracy off the tee is paramount. The course rates as one of the most correlated between driving accuracy and success. Key statistics indicate that when players find the fairway, the Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage stands at an impressive 80%. However, this drops dramatically to just 55% if the player lands in the rough. A look at recent leaderboards quickly uncovers a long list of fairway finders. Bombers have rarely found success here. Not because distance is a disadvantage, but waywardness is, and you simply don’t need distance to score here.
The course is a relatively short as a 7,127 yard par 70. There are 8 par 4s from 400-450 yards. Subsequently, you will see a number of players club down off the tee to ensure they keep the ball in-play. Further, it sees a disproportionate number of shots from 100-150 yards.
Finally, this does have a tendency to produce low scores. Just one golfer has won the event since 2015 at a score higher than -20. As such, putting is key here and acumen on Bermuda grass is desirable.
Pete Dye designed the other 18 hole golf course at Sedgefield Country Club, and it is through some of his other golf courses that strong course comps can be found when you preview the Wyndham Championship. Namely, TPC Sawgrass.
TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club display some of the strongest correlations between two golf courses you will ever see.
To put the links in perspective, digest this fact for a moment. One third of all winners have won at both The Players Championship and the Wyndham Championship. Davis Love, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim and Sergio Garcia have all won across both golf courses. Brian Harman won two junior events here in 2002 and 2003, finishing runner-up behind Scottie Scheffler in The Players earlier this season. You can go further and look at an even greater number who hold Top 5s across both events.
Another Pete Dye design, Harbour Town, is also a good guide. Carl Pettersson and Webb Simpson won at both. Davis Love, Kisner, and Si Woo were runner-up there. It asks similar questions, with a positional golf course where angles into small greens dictate that not only finding the fairways is important but precisely where in the fairway you are.
Additionally, you can look to a couple of recent TPC courses for guidance. Those are TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, and TPC Deere Run, of the John Deere Classic. There are strong leaderboard correlations here. Both also have the added benefit of providing some indication of recent form when you preview the Wyndham Championship field. They also both often require low scoring to win, as is so often the case at the Wyndham Championship.
With former Hurricane Debby looming large this week, weather will inevitably be a substantial conversation for many this week.
I always find it entertaining when the entire golf industry become fixated on the weather. Golf is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements. It baffles me that you could ever consider betting on a golf tournament without first factoring in what influence the weather may have. We always make weather a large factor in our considerations, especially for DFS and golf betting purposes.
It frustrates me that the PGA Tour, and sporting organizations in general, don’t make some of these calls earlier. The forecast is abundantly clear and Hurricane Debby is a significant weather event. Had an early call been made, a round could have been completed on Wednesday or Thursday postponed already. That would provide all concerned some certainty of what to expect and when.
I will make some predictions here, some bolder than others.
First, there will be no play on Thursday afternoon. Further, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is no golf at all on Thursday. Friday morning could also be delayed, with heavy rains and high winds still predicted. There will likely also be time required to clear the golf course of any debris and deal with the amount of water predicted to fall. Current predictions are 4 to 6 inches of rain.
For tee-times, that would mean Thursday AM would become late Friday AM/Friday PM. Thursday PM would then first tee-off Friday PM, possibly finishing on Saturday morning. The weather on the weekend looks much better.
Do we get a full 72 hole tournament at the Wyndham Championship? As I have watched the forecast developing, I think probably not. The PGA Tour will be torn between giving those on the cusp of qualification for the FedEx Cup playoffs their best chance of doing so, yet not compromising the lead-up to that prestigious event.
I believe the tournament will be a Monday finish regardless, as I do not see them extending into Tuesday which is the last possible day for play. The question then becomes whether the weather allows for 72 holes to be completed within that timeframe.
For DFS purposes, I think it is almost guaranteed some form of substantial weather wave develops. One group of golfers is simply going to get the best of it here. I would recommend you build line-ups in both directions to cover the wide range of inevitabilities possible.
My personal view is that Thursday PM tee-times would be desirable. That is likely going to be contrarian to the majority of takes you will read this week. That is because Thursday afternoon forecasts to be the worst weather from our Wyndham Championship preview. However, it is my position that the weather will be so bad that play simply won’t be possible.
It reminds me a little for The Players Championship in 2022. The general public saw the heavier winds forecast for the afternoon, and all played the morning golfers. We took the opposite route, citing thunderstorms in the afternoon likely to delay play. We were correct, seeing a huge weather wave advantage develop for those who barely had to play on Thursday, and a huge amount of leverage for DFS and golf betting.
Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 Wyndham Championship.
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The Wyndham Championship is the last chance saloon for many golfers to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs! Who will make the cut? But, more importantly, who will win the Wyndham Championship PGA Draftcast this week?
Our selections have been on absolute FIRE lately. Resident golf analyst and man from the future, David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf), and @DraftMasterFlex both gave out Hideki Matsuyama as FRL 35/1 last week! David had 3/6 selections finish in the top 10, including Matsuyama in Bronze at 35/1.
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re aiming for a big payday at the Wyndham Championship – helping you find some winning teams in your contests!
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $10,700) – Coming off a disappointing T17 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Louis still has to be considered as one of the best ball strikers and putters in the field. Sedgefield isn’t one of his normal tour stops, so there’s also some concern if he can get into a birdie-making rhythm right away as he feels out this course. But he’s got the best 2021 numbers of anybody in the field and there’s no reason he can’t thrive here in the Carolina suburbs.
Update: Louis withdrew today, so we can pivot to Hideki Matsuyama in GPPs and/or eat the Webb chalk. But we can’t play Mr. Major Runner Up this week.
Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Webb is actually $600 cheaper than last year, which is great considering he’s rounding back into form with Top 20 finishes in his last two events – both against much stiffer competition. He finished T9 at the RBC Heritage and most importantly is a course horse and perennial threat to win here with top 3 finishes in his last four Wyndham championships. He’ll be chalky – so many contrarian-forward builders may opt for leverage by fading him in large-field GPPs – but he’s fine for cash and single-entry.
Jason Kokrak (DK $10,000) – I love Kokrak this week. He’s performed well here before with three Top 20s in his last four tries (including a T6 in 2019 and T15 last year), and 2021 has given him the confidence to win – not just place. His stat profile checks a few boxes this week too, as he’s 28th in GIR and fifth in SG:Putting this week.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,600) – It was great to hear Bettor Golf Podcast metrics guru Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) talk up Sungjae and his affinity for “short Bermuda tracks” on The Breakdown with Sia and Joel last night. Im is one of the first golfers I wrote down to cover this week and he’s at a solid price point for his accuracy and overall PGA DFS upside.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris (GPP), Brian Harman
Russell Henley (DK $9,400) – Henley isn’t knighting the world on fire lately, but he’s played well enough to notch top 20 finishes in the three tournaments bookended by MCs at the Memorial and Open Championship. Sia mentions in his Initial Picks article that Henley has solid accuracy numbers and elite SG:APP metrics, so we can definitely look his way in all formats.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $8,900) – MacIntyre is making his first appearance at the Wyndham Championship this year, and he does an excellent job of staying out of trouble and giving himself opportunities to make birdies. At TPC Southwind, he posted four consecutive round in the 60s, and a second consecutive week on fats Bermuda greens could be a huge help.
Kevin Na (DK $8,800) – We haven’t heard his name much lately, and that’s usually when Na pounces for a top 5 finish – which he had the last time he played here in 2017 (T4). The WinDaily crew is mostly united in considering Na a sneaky GPP play this week, and while his viability in cash games leaves a lot to be desired, I may consider him for a low-cost, larger-field single-entry tournament and a bunch of lottery-ticket GPPs.
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,600) – He’s made three straight cuts and he should be able to make plenty of birdies on this golf course if he doesn’t force things off the tee and clubs down when appropriate. I’m not in love with the $8,000-8,500 range this week, so I’ll be paying up for Fowler on plenty of my GPP builds.
Mito Pereira (DK $7,900) – We’ve spoken ad nauseum about course history at this venue, but while there’s no course history to speak of with the swashbuckling Chilean, he just seems to handle whatever course designers have been throwing at him. Pereira is a huge bargain under $8K considering his talent and form, so we should get some exposure in GPPs at this price.
J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – Poston missed the cut last year after dismantling this golf course when he won here in 2019. He’s playing well, with a solo second at the Barbasol and a T28 at the 3M Open. J.T. could be a solid GPP option if we can keep him around 20% ownership to stay well ahead of the field without going all in.
Talor Gooch (DK $7,700) – Gooch is good on birdie fests and he’s made seven straight cuts – an encouraging sign considering he’s traditionally not the most consistent golfer. The shorter course should help him hit less than driver and find more fairways this week, and he’s solid on approach and with his ball-striking T2G.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,500) – Varner is always comfortable returning to the Carolinas, is a solid ball-striker and was one of my favorite plays last year when he finished T7. This season he’s alternated good performances with bad, but I like his chances for another top 10 or 15 at Sedgefield.
Also consider: Matthew Wolff (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power (GPP), Kevin Kisner (GPP), Kevin Streelman (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP)
C.T. Pan (DK $7,400) – I’m all over Pan in GPPs this week despite the occasional three-putt and missed opportunity that continues to plague his game. Watching him charge back into contention and finishing on the podium in Tokyo was a proud moment as I touted him quite a bit that week in my article and on Discord.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,300) – There’s plenty of favorable course history (two of Sabbatini’s last nine top 10s came on this course in 2017 and 2019).and he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalists – so we know he can go low here. Sabbatini needs a decent finish here as he’s just 141st in the FedExCup standings, and the price is great for his upside.
Brendan Todd (DK $7,100) – Todd was $8,900 here last year when he was in the middle of a little heater, and while the game isn’t quite where it was last year, he remains a good fit for this golf course and could be a guy who benefits from the shorter layout and accessible greens. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.
Ryan Armour (DK $7,000) – Joel’s BFF is streaky player who I wouldn’t touch in cash games, but has had lots of success at Sedgefield. Armour posted a T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018, T22 in 2019 and T25 last year. He was T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M before his MC at the Barracuda last week. I’m not nearly as excited to roster him as Mr. Shreck is, but perhaps maybe I should be.
Brian Stuard (DK$6,900) – The MC last week belies some stellar iron play over the past 12 sounds, and Stuard is checking the SG:APP and SG: OTT boxes this week because of his burgeoning accuracy. If his putter behaves this week on these fast Bermuda greens, he should be able to post some good scores on this shorter-than-usual PGA course.
Jim Herman (DK $6,900) – The veteran is a great course fit and coming off a week where he had some early success before faltering on the weekend. He’s also the defending champ at Sedgefield, so I’ll swallow hard and grab some exposure in GPPs. I don’t love playing him, but he’s a birdie-maker with upside who loves the track.
More value golfers to consider: Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Chez Reavie, Patrick Rodgers (single-day and GPP), Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Joel Dahmen, Bo Hoag, Mark Hubbard (GPP), Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok (GPP), Francesco Molinari (GPP), Adam Long (GPP), Roger Sloan (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chesson Hadley (GPP)
Denny McCarthy (DK $6,400) – His form is awful but he plays well at this venue, with T9-T22-T36 in his three appearances here. That’s enough for 2 or 3 lineups in my 20-max builds.
Vincent Whaley (DK $6,400) – Whaley was playing super consistent golf until a six-event stretch where he missed four cuts in six tournaments. Last week he finished T9 and there’s something to be said for getting back on this consistent horse who debuted with a T37 at this course last year.
Tyler Duncan (DK $6,200) – Last year I had Duncan in my punts to consider and he finished T13, so I’ll give the wayward ball striker another shot this year in 1/20 GPPs.
Additional GPP punts: Fabian Gomez, Rob Oppenheim, Chris Baker, Brian Gay, Michael Gellerman
The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.
Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4th Top 5 in a row. Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP. The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever. If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).
Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course). His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.
Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course. Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open). Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting.
Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20? Perfect! He also happens to rank 2nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).
Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers. The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter. Streelman can do all those things. He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.
Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here. His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.
Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag. I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).
Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut. The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds. The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.
Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game. With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful. I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.
Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form. He is a great value play here and likely to be popular. If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.
Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year. Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row. Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander. I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.
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