The FedEx Cup playoffs are here! The PGA Tour heads to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship and the team are back to draft PGA DFS line-ups against YOU the audience.
Special live stream this evening as David (@DeepDiveGolf) to give a weather update on Hurricane Debby and what impact this will have on the Wyndham Championship.
Over the past decade or so, whenever we preview the Wyndham Championship the real prize for many of the golfers has been the retention of their PGA Tour card. Although the main cut-off this year is the Top 70 for the FedEx Cup Play-offs, a number in this field will also have ensuring their place with the Top 50 on their mind. That grants them entry into the BMW Championship and, subsequently, all of the big money Signature Events in 2025.
Should golfers reside outside the Top 70, they still have a final chance to retain their playing privileges. They will return for the PGA Tour Fall Series, playing through until November to ensure they remain in the Top 125 players and the music keeps playing for another year. It promises to provide an electric atmosphere, and not least because the threat of former Hurricane Debby (now downgraded to a tropical storm) looms large over the Wyndham Championship which we will preview in our weather analysis.
It was another fabulous week for our golf betting tips at the Olympics, continuing a run of excellent results.
Among our first-round leader selections, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, and Sepp Straka, we saw remarkable performances. Matsuyama, tipped at 33/1, successfully claimed the first-round leader position, while Tom Kim finished a commendable third, cashing a FRL Top 5 at 7/1. Straka also delivered a notable performance, finishing as an honorable 6th.
Matsuyama’s journey didn’t end there; he went very close to winning the tournament at 35/1 for us, eventually securing a bronze medal. In a bogey-free 65, his putter went cold down the stretch. Despite a number of birdie looks, he finished with 6 consecutive pars and finished just two strokes off Scheffler’s winning mark. He cashed a full-place for us at +875.
Tom Kim was selected as our DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater to finish within the Top 10 at +275. He duly delivered, securing our 5th Bookie Beater cash in 6 tournaments. Unfortunately, he does mean he didn’t secure his much desired exemption from military service in South Korea. Hopefully, he manages to achieve that in the coming years and we don’t see a promising young career derailed.
Scottie Scheffler remains a problem. What will be most concerning for his competitors is that he won the Gold medal in Paris whilst losing strokes putting. That is just the 4th occurrence in the last 4 years where that has been achieved. In the final round, he tied the course record at Le Golf National without really looking like he broke a sweat.
However, give me Matsuyama 35/1 or Tom Kim 30/1 in contention over Scheffler at 4/1 any day. He would need to win in those circumstances 7 times more often, suggesting betting value still continues to lie elsewhere.
We have plenty of data to delve in this preview of the Wyndham Championship, with Sedgefield Country Club having hosted this tournament for the last 16 years.
Further, the recipe for this course is rather straightforward. That is driving accuracy, short to mid iron acumen, and the ability to find a hot putter.
The course is characterized by its tight fairways and undulating greens, where accuracy off the tee is paramount. The course rates as one of the most correlated between driving accuracy and success. Key statistics indicate that when players find the fairway, the Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage stands at an impressive 80%. However, this drops dramatically to just 55% if the player lands in the rough. A look at recent leaderboards quickly uncovers a long list of fairway finders. Bombers have rarely found success here. Not because distance is a disadvantage, but waywardness is, and you simply don’t need distance to score here.
The course is a relatively short as a 7,127 yard par 70. There are 8 par 4s from 400-450 yards. Subsequently, you will see a number of players club down off the tee to ensure they keep the ball in-play. Further, it sees a disproportionate number of shots from 100-150 yards.
Finally, this does have a tendency to produce low scores. Just one golfer has won the event since 2015 at a score higher than -20. As such, putting is key here and acumen on Bermuda grass is desirable.
Pete Dye designed the other 18 hole golf course at Sedgefield Country Club, and it is through some of his other golf courses that strong course comps can be found when you preview the Wyndham Championship. Namely, TPC Sawgrass.
TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club display some of the strongest correlations between two golf courses you will ever see.
To put the links in perspective, digest this fact for a moment. One third of all winners have won at both The Players Championship and the Wyndham Championship. Davis Love, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim and Sergio Garcia have all won across both golf courses. Brian Harman won two junior events here in 2002 and 2003, finishing runner-up behind Scottie Scheffler in The Players earlier this season. You can go further and look at an even greater number who hold Top 5s across both events.
Another Pete Dye design, Harbour Town, is also a good guide. Carl Pettersson and Webb Simpson won at both. Davis Love, Kisner, and Si Woo were runner-up there. It asks similar questions, with a positional golf course where angles into small greens dictate that not only finding the fairways is important but precisely where in the fairway you are.
Additionally, you can look to a couple of recent TPC courses for guidance. Those are TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, and TPC Deere Run, of the John Deere Classic. There are strong leaderboard correlations here. Both also have the added benefit of providing some indication of recent form when you preview the Wyndham Championship field. They also both often require low scoring to win, as is so often the case at the Wyndham Championship.
With former Hurricane Debby looming large this week, weather will inevitably be a substantial conversation for many this week.
I always find it entertaining when the entire golf industry become fixated on the weather. Golf is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements. It baffles me that you could ever consider betting on a golf tournament without first factoring in what influence the weather may have. We always make weather a large factor in our considerations, especially for DFS and golf betting purposes.
It frustrates me that the PGA Tour, and sporting organizations in general, don’t make some of these calls earlier. The forecast is abundantly clear and Hurricane Debby is a significant weather event. Had an early call been made, a round could have been completed on Wednesday or Thursday postponed already. That would provide all concerned some certainty of what to expect and when.
I will make some predictions here, some bolder than others.
First, there will be no play on Thursday afternoon. Further, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is no golf at all on Thursday. Friday morning could also be delayed, with heavy rains and high winds still predicted. There will likely also be time required to clear the golf course of any debris and deal with the amount of water predicted to fall. Current predictions are 4 to 6 inches of rain.
For tee-times, that would mean Thursday AM would become late Friday AM/Friday PM. Thursday PM would then first tee-off Friday PM, possibly finishing on Saturday morning. The weather on the weekend looks much better.
Do we get a full 72 hole tournament at the Wyndham Championship? As I have watched the forecast developing, I think probably not. The PGA Tour will be torn between giving those on the cusp of qualification for the FedEx Cup playoffs their best chance of doing so, yet not compromising the lead-up to that prestigious event.
I believe the tournament will be a Monday finish regardless, as I do not see them extending into Tuesday which is the last possible day for play. The question then becomes whether the weather allows for 72 holes to be completed within that timeframe.
For DFS purposes, I think it is almost guaranteed some form of substantial weather wave develops. One group of golfers is simply going to get the best of it here. I would recommend you build line-ups in both directions to cover the wide range of inevitabilities possible.
My personal view is that Thursday PM tee-times would be desirable. That is likely going to be contrarian to the majority of takes you will read this week. That is because Thursday afternoon forecasts to be the worst weather from our Wyndham Championship preview. However, it is my position that the weather will be so bad that play simply won’t be possible.
It reminds me a little for The Players Championship in 2022. The general public saw the heavier winds forecast for the afternoon, and all played the morning golfers. We took the opposite route, citing thunderstorms in the afternoon likely to delay play. We were correct, seeing a huge weather wave advantage develop for those who barely had to play on Thursday, and a huge amount of leverage for DFS and golf betting.
Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 Wyndham Championship.
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The Wyndham Championship is the last chance saloon for many golfers to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs! Who will make the cut? But, more importantly, who will win the Wyndham Championship PGA Draftcast this week?
Our selections have been on absolute FIRE lately. Resident golf analyst and man from the future, David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf), and @DraftMasterFlex both gave out Hideki Matsuyama as FRL 35/1 last week! David had 3/6 selections finish in the top 10, including Matsuyama in Bronze at 35/1.
We had Kenny Kim on this week’s PGA DraftCast + a short episode of Bettor Golf where Nick and I ran through the entire board for DFS and betting.
Sungjae Im ($10,500) – Sungjae’s form has quietly come back around, as we have seen him average 3.58 shots with his irons and 3.85 with his driver over his last four tournaments with stats present. A significant result might be around the corner, and the presence of Bermuda greens has been the surface where he has found his best success in the past.
Russell Henley ($9,800) – It is hard to go against my model’s number one golfer for upside. I don’t love the ownership, but the potential is there for him to win this event, which is noteworthy enough to keep him in the pool, especially in single-entry type builds that feature reduced-sized fields.
Corey Conners ($9,600) – The top-ranked golfer in my model for scoring at easy courses, Conners’ ball-striking is perfectly equipped for a test such as Sedgefield.
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400) – Hatton is a favorite in all his head-to-head matchups at the credible offshore books. I don’t love the price tag, but you are able to create some leverage if you are willing to play him at 15%+ in your MME contests. I would avoid him in other game types.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,400) – Bezuidenhout ranks seventh in this field in proximity between 150-175 yards, and while you can say that is a wonky statistic that doesn’t tell the entire picture, the total driving and putting should be viewed as reminiscent of past winners at the track.
Brian Harman ($8,300) – One of the sharper movers at the offshore books, Harman is the only golfer in this field that ranks inside the top 20 in my model for weighted par-four scoring, overall weighted scoring, weighted total driving and fast Bermuda + three-putt percentage.
Aaron Wise ($8,100) – Nick said it best on Bettor Golf, “Wise is playing the best golf of his career and is priced next to players beneath him in stature.” In fairness, I paraphrased the hell out of that quote, so much so that it probably shouldn’t have been in quotations, but the overall outline of that sentiment rings true.
Mark Hubbard ($7,900) – Hubbard’s most significant deterrent during most events is his lack of distance, but the ability to club down at Sedgefield should give him a boost so he can take advantage of his seventh-place mark in weighted proximity – a total that is 31 spots better than his expected production at a random course.
Jason Day ($7,800) – Yes, I am the king of maintaining the bit weekly for Webb Simpson and Jason Day, but the weighted proximity is improved for Day to mimic Sedgefield – not to mention the shortened layout and Donald Ross design should fit right into his wheelhouse.
Kevin Streelman ($7,600) – Streelman cracks the top-10 of my model when running it for purely upside, which is enough for me to warrant him in GPP contests.
Adam Svensson ($7,500) – As much as I want to fade the chalk, my model likes him too much to ignore.
Alex Smalley ($7,500) – Smalley jumps from 70th to 18th when moving my metrics from ‘driving accuracy’ into ‘good drive percentage.’ That means he has found success in the past when clubbing down, and even if the ownership is trickling up, I like the potential he brings to the table.
Brendon Todd ($7,500) – I worry a little about the irons here for Todd, as he has lost in his past three starts, but this is one of those catch-22 spots where the approach metrics are almost always bad, and the production only gets worse at venues where he can’t take advantage of his accuracy. Thankfully, the second part of that situation will be negated at Sedgefield, with Todd grading third in my model for weighted total driving
C.T. Pan ($7,400) – Pan’s short game went in reverse during his outing in Detroit. Let’s not overreact to one missed cut.
Harris English ($7,300) – Reduced ownership on a golfer that has produced three top-39 finishes at this course over his past three attempts. I know the current form is worrisome, but English is a GPP-only target that does have upside.
Russell Knox ($7,200) – I am not sure I have ever gotten Russell Knox correct, but first in GIR percentage and fifth in overall ball-striking should suit him well at this week’s course.
Andrew Putnam ($7,000) – Putnam’s off-the-tee metrics are 59 spots better over his last 24 rounds compared to his two-year running data, and he ranks fourth in this field for weighted par-four scoring.
Michael Thompson ($7,000) – Three top-26 finishes in a row for Thompson, who has the game to find success at a driving accuracy contest.
Justin Lower $6,700, Zach Johnson $6,600
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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re aiming for a big payday at the Wyndham Championship – helping you find some winning teams in your contests!
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Louis Oosthuizen (DK $10,700) – Coming off a disappointing T17 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Louis still has to be considered as one of the best ball strikers and putters in the field. Sedgefield isn’t one of his normal tour stops, so there’s also some concern if he can get into a birdie-making rhythm right away as he feels out this course. But he’s got the best 2021 numbers of anybody in the field and there’s no reason he can’t thrive here in the Carolina suburbs.
Update: Louis withdrew today, so we can pivot to Hideki Matsuyama in GPPs and/or eat the Webb chalk. But we can’t play Mr. Major Runner Up this week.
Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Webb is actually $600 cheaper than last year, which is great considering he’s rounding back into form with Top 20 finishes in his last two events – both against much stiffer competition. He finished T9 at the RBC Heritage and most importantly is a course horse and perennial threat to win here with top 3 finishes in his last four Wyndham championships. He’ll be chalky – so many contrarian-forward builders may opt for leverage by fading him in large-field GPPs – but he’s fine for cash and single-entry.
Jason Kokrak (DK $10,000) – I love Kokrak this week. He’s performed well here before with three Top 20s in his last four tries (including a T6 in 2019 and T15 last year), and 2021 has given him the confidence to win – not just place. His stat profile checks a few boxes this week too, as he’s 28th in GIR and fifth in SG:Putting this week.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,600) – It was great to hear Bettor Golf Podcast metrics guru Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) talk up Sungjae and his affinity for “short Bermuda tracks” on The Breakdown with Sia and Joel last night. Im is one of the first golfers I wrote down to cover this week and he’s at a solid price point for his accuracy and overall PGA DFS upside.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris (GPP), Brian Harman
Russell Henley (DK $9,400) – Henley isn’t knighting the world on fire lately, but he’s played well enough to notch top 20 finishes in the three tournaments bookended by MCs at the Memorial and Open Championship. Sia mentions in his Initial Picks article that Henley has solid accuracy numbers and elite SG:APP metrics, so we can definitely look his way in all formats.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $8,900) – MacIntyre is making his first appearance at the Wyndham Championship this year, and he does an excellent job of staying out of trouble and giving himself opportunities to make birdies. At TPC Southwind, he posted four consecutive round in the 60s, and a second consecutive week on fats Bermuda greens could be a huge help.
Kevin Na (DK $8,800) – We haven’t heard his name much lately, and that’s usually when Na pounces for a top 5 finish – which he had the last time he played here in 2017 (T4). The WinDaily crew is mostly united in considering Na a sneaky GPP play this week, and while his viability in cash games leaves a lot to be desired, I may consider him for a low-cost, larger-field single-entry tournament and a bunch of lottery-ticket GPPs.
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,600) – He’s made three straight cuts and he should be able to make plenty of birdies on this golf course if he doesn’t force things off the tee and clubs down when appropriate. I’m not in love with the $8,000-8,500 range this week, so I’ll be paying up for Fowler on plenty of my GPP builds.
Mito Pereira (DK $7,900) – We’ve spoken ad nauseum about course history at this venue, but while there’s no course history to speak of with the swashbuckling Chilean, he just seems to handle whatever course designers have been throwing at him. Pereira is a huge bargain under $8K considering his talent and form, so we should get some exposure in GPPs at this price.
J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – Poston missed the cut last year after dismantling this golf course when he won here in 2019. He’s playing well, with a solo second at the Barbasol and a T28 at the 3M Open. J.T. could be a solid GPP option if we can keep him around 20% ownership to stay well ahead of the field without going all in.
Talor Gooch (DK $7,700) – Gooch is good on birdie fests and he’s made seven straight cuts – an encouraging sign considering he’s traditionally not the most consistent golfer. The shorter course should help him hit less than driver and find more fairways this week, and he’s solid on approach and with his ball-striking T2G.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,500) – Varner is always comfortable returning to the Carolinas, is a solid ball-striker and was one of my favorite plays last year when he finished T7. This season he’s alternated good performances with bad, but I like his chances for another top 10 or 15 at Sedgefield.
Also consider: Matthew Wolff (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power (GPP), Kevin Kisner (GPP), Kevin Streelman (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP)
C.T. Pan (DK $7,400) – I’m all over Pan in GPPs this week despite the occasional three-putt and missed opportunity that continues to plague his game. Watching him charge back into contention and finishing on the podium in Tokyo was a proud moment as I touted him quite a bit that week in my article and on Discord.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,300) – There’s plenty of favorable course history (two of Sabbatini’s last nine top 10s came on this course in 2017 and 2019).and he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalists – so we know he can go low here. Sabbatini needs a decent finish here as he’s just 141st in the FedExCup standings, and the price is great for his upside.
Brendan Todd (DK $7,100) – Todd was $8,900 here last year when he was in the middle of a little heater, and while the game isn’t quite where it was last year, he remains a good fit for this golf course and could be a guy who benefits from the shorter layout and accessible greens. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.
Ryan Armour (DK $7,000) – Joel’s BFF is streaky player who I wouldn’t touch in cash games, but has had lots of success at Sedgefield. Armour posted a T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018, T22 in 2019 and T25 last year. He was T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M before his MC at the Barracuda last week. I’m not nearly as excited to roster him as Mr. Shreck is, but perhaps maybe I should be.
Brian Stuard (DK$6,900) – The MC last week belies some stellar iron play over the past 12 sounds, and Stuard is checking the SG:APP and SG: OTT boxes this week because of his burgeoning accuracy. If his putter behaves this week on these fast Bermuda greens, he should be able to post some good scores on this shorter-than-usual PGA course.
Jim Herman (DK $6,900) – The veteran is a great course fit and coming off a week where he had some early success before faltering on the weekend. He’s also the defending champ at Sedgefield, so I’ll swallow hard and grab some exposure in GPPs. I don’t love playing him, but he’s a birdie-maker with upside who loves the track.
More value golfers to consider: Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Chez Reavie, Patrick Rodgers (single-day and GPP), Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Joel Dahmen, Bo Hoag, Mark Hubbard (GPP), Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok (GPP), Francesco Molinari (GPP), Adam Long (GPP), Roger Sloan (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chesson Hadley (GPP)
Denny McCarthy (DK $6,400) – His form is awful but he plays well at this venue, with T9-T22-T36 in his three appearances here. That’s enough for 2 or 3 lineups in my 20-max builds.
Vincent Whaley (DK $6,400) – Whaley was playing super consistent golf until a six-event stretch where he missed four cuts in six tournaments. Last week he finished T9 and there’s something to be said for getting back on this consistent horse who debuted with a T37 at this course last year.
Tyler Duncan (DK $6,200) – Last year I had Duncan in my punts to consider and he finished T13, so I’ll give the wayward ball striker another shot this year in 1/20 GPPs.
Additional GPP punts: Fabian Gomez, Rob Oppenheim, Chris Baker, Brian Gay, Michael Gellerman
The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.
Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4th Top 5 in a row. Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP. The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever. If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).
Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course). His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.
Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course. Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open). Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting.
Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20? Perfect! He also happens to rank 2nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).
Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers. The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter. Streelman can do all those things. He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.
Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here. His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.
Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag. I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).
Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut. The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds. The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.
Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game. With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful. I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.
Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form. He is a great value play here and likely to be popular. If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.
Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year. Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row. Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander. I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.
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This tournament has historically been very low scoring and this week is no different. We saw three 8 unders on Thursday and then three 7 unders on Friday. With the ability to go that low in a single day, this tournament remains wide open.
When selecting golfers for the PGA Saturday Showdown slate I want to target guys who are striking the ball well. Obviously the guys who went 7 under the day before will look good for Saturday’s slate but it is rare for someone to go 7 under two days in a row. That does not mean you should completely fade them but you don’t want to just select all of the leaders from the day before.
In DraftKings, you will need all 6 golfers to perform well. If you miss on just one guy that can ruin your entire lineup!
Targets for PGA Saturday Showdown slate:
Webb Simpson ($10,400): In case you have not heard already, Webb is a legend on this course and has played well thus far sitting at -8. He has a -6 coming either Saturday or Sunday too.
Henrik Norlander ($8,100): I loved Henrik all week and he has played well thus far. I am anticipating a big weekend from him just like we saw at the 3M Open (the last tournament he played in) where he shot a 67 on Saturday and 65 on Sunday.
Doc Redman ($8,000): Doc has been playing great all summer! He turned in a -6 on Friday leaving him at -9 heading into the weekend. Doc is also from NC so he is comfortable with this course and might have a little extra “hometown” motivation.
Scott Stallings ($7,300): Scott finished in 5th place at the Barracuda Championship two weeks ago and he progressively shot a lower score each day of the tournament with a 71 on Thursday, 69 on Friday, 68 on Saturday, and 65 on Sunday. Can he do that again this weekend?
Tom Lewis ($6,800): This price seems almost disrespectful for Tom. In his last 6 rounds of golf played he has a 67, 66, and 61! He is 5 under heading into the weekend and he tends to play his best golf on Saturday and Sunday.
Matt Every ($6,100): Matt gained the second most strokes on APP in the entire field on Friday and at this price he is certainly worth a look for tomorrow.
Hank Lebioda ($6,100): Hank’s putter cannot be any worse than it was on Friday. He shot 5 under on Thursday and is striking the ball well. I cannot imagine a PGA golfer putting that poorly two days in a row!
As always you can find me and the rest of the writers in the Discord Channel once this report is posted. We will answer any questions and help with lineups, please make sure you read all the articles by our fine staff that can pinpoint players and trends to help you make money.
Last weeks PGA Championship DraftKings Milly Maker winner had two players who’s combined ownership was just a tad over 10% at 10.3%. The percentage for the team was 14.6% as the formula came in again. The difference between 1st (1,025,000) and 2nd (112,500) was the winner had Joel Dahmen and 2nd place had Ryan Palmer, and of course the $900,000 difference between the two. Here is our Wyndham Championships Final Ownership.
Last week at the time of posting the highest owned player was DJ, soon after the pundits and internet talk show hosts began pushing the Webb Simpson/ no caddy, ( which was in my report ) and also that Koepka and DeChambeau would be facing 30 MPH winds, soon after their positions started dropping, rapidly, and the high ownership ended up being Collin Morikawa, who won, and probably paid those that made the change. In speaking with my Palo Alto team, I discovered that social media can have that dramatic an effect on ownership positions, perceptions that there may be an edge to be exploited, moving forward we will try and bring you the latest information on what may alter finishing ownership, with that let’s move on to this weeks ownership for the DraftKings Wyndham Half a Milly Maker.
The leader in ownership by leaps and bounds this week is Webb Simpson, who at the time of this report is 36% + (+ is rising). At this ownership percentage he has to win to perhaps get value, 9 of the last 20 champions have come from back in the pack, so if you fade Simpson, you have close to a 50% chance of being right, and gaining considerable leverage on the field, but do so at your own risk, he loves this tourney so much he named his daughter Wyndham after it, Patrick “Sharps” Scott (one of our really good writers ) is naming his first born CollinMorikawa, which should lead to lots of therapy for the child.
Next is Harris English at 24%, Ryan Moore and Patrick Reed are identical at 21.3%, Billy Horschel is 19.3%, surprisingly Kevin Kisner is next at 18%, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose are 17.5%, Paul Casey is 17.2%, followed by Sungjae IM at 15.7%, Russel Henley is 15.5%, Brendan Todd at 15.2%, Henrik Norlander is 15%, Corey Conners is 13.7%, Sergio Garcia is 13.2%, Joaquin Niemann is at 12.5%, Brooks Koepka is 11%, Jordan Spieth is 10.7%, Si Woo Kim is 10.5%, Doc Redman is 10.4%, Harold Varner lll is 9.4%, Shane Lowry is 9.2%, Sam Burns is 9.1%, Dylan Frittelli is 8.9%, Lucas Glover is 8.5%, Chez Reavie is 8.4%, Christian Bezuidenhout is 8.3%, Jim Furyk is 7.6%, Brian Harmon is 6.7%, Brice Garnett is 6.6%, Tom Lewis is 6.4% and so is Kyle Stanley. Rory Sabbatini is 6.3%, Bud Cauley is 5.9%, Brandt Snedeker is 5.7%, Ryan Armour is 5.6%.
The following golfers fall under the 5% owned threshold:
Sepp Straka is 4.9%, Adam Long is 4.5%, Charl Schwartzel is 4.3% along with Pat Perez and Patrick Rodgers. Maverick McNealy is 4.2% along with Adam Schenk. Luke List is 3.9%, Mark Hubbard is 3.6% along with Cameron Davis. Matthias Schwab is 3.4%, Scott Stallings is 3.2% along with Jason Kokrak. Denny McCarthy is 2.9%, Aaron Wise is 2.8% along with J T Poston.
Branden Grace is 2.7% along with Keith Mitchell. Troy Merritt is 2.5% Chesson Hadley is 2.2% along with Matt Wallace and Zach Johnson and Sebastian Munoz.
The following golfers are all under 2% ownership:
Andrew Landry, Taylor Gooch, Jason Dufner, Austin Cook, Charley Hoffman, C.T. Pan, Jhonattan Vegas, Chris Kirk, Sam Ryder, X Zang, Joseph Bramlett, Graeme McDowell, Matt Jones, Russel Knox, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan, Brian Stuard, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Danny Willett and Scott Piercy.
I was covered in Webb Simpson until 36% ownership drove me off, I will have a Very light dusting of Simpson. Harris English, Patrick Reed and Ryan Moore are all 20% + owned, which moves me to Brooks Koepka, at 11% he is the natural pivot in the high end.
In the mid tier I like Billy Horschel and Doc Redman. Billy is coming in at 15% ownership and Doc is at 10%, with the top tier so chalk heavy these two with any game at all can gain leverage on your big GPP field.
In the lower tier I like Tom Lewis and Henrik Norlander. Norlander is 14%+ owned and Lewis is a bit over 6%, with their salaries ( Norlander 7300, Lewis 7600) it allows you more room to pivot up.
My out in left field play is Adam Long (6900) he placed 51st last week at the PGA, and was 2nd at the 3M. This is a much weaker field and he should move up the leaderboard on the weekend. My honorable mention is Matthias Schwab.
Each week Sia puts out his SW (Secret Weapon ) that is in the 6 K salary range, less than 5 % owned, and he has an incredible winning percentage, better than Tom Brady in the Super Bowl better than Rocky Balboa in his prime, better than the bank, believe it. Last weeks pick was Dylan Frittelli, who not only made the cut but made everyone money, including the showdown and weekend entries. It’s almost like printing your own money and twice as legal. His pick is Adam Long as well, we both like him for the same reasons, get him on your rosters.
As always you can find me and the rest of the writers in the Discord Channel once this report is posted. We will answer any questions and help with lineups, please make sure you read all the articles by our fine staff that can pinpoint players and trends to help you make money. Don’t forget to check out the live stream on Tuesday nights at 8:30 pm EST with Michael and Sia and Joel, who has so far banked at least $170,000.00 in golf contests just in the last month, those are the figures and the guys I want to pay close attention to. Thank you for checking out our Wyndham Championships Final Ownership article. As always I hope to be with you, in the money.
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 Wyndham Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
Before we dive into the player pool, I just want to give a quick shout out to my boy Collin Morikawa!! Way to take down your first Major, in a your young career. Take the week off and we’ll see you back soon where I will play you again and again and again.
Brooks Koepka $11,400 (Model # 4, Projected Ownership 11%)
Webb Simpson $11,200 (M14, 35%)
Tommy Fleetwood $10,500 (M61, 15%)
Harris English $9,300 (M17, 22%)
Justin Rose $9,900 (M38, 20%)
Ryan Moore $8,100 (M3, 24%)
Corey Conners $8,000 (M10, 15%)
Chez Reavie $8,400 (M16, 10%)
Brendon Todd $8,900 (M13, 16%)
Shane Lowry $8,700 (M29, 8%)
Russell Henley $7,700 (M1, 18%)
Henrik Norlander $7,300 (M2, 18%)
Doc Redman $7,800 (M8, 13%)
Harold Varner III $7,600 (M11, 13%)
Lucas Glover $7,300 (M12, 6%)
Bud Cauley $7,200 (M18, 4%)
Joaquin Niemann $7,900 (M20, 17%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,700 (M23, 8%)
Matthias Schwab $7,500 (M34, 3%)
Zach Johnson $7,000 (M37, 2%)
Brian Harman $7,100 (M47, 3%)
Tom Lewis $7,600 (M49, 9%)
Luke List $7,200 (M54, 3%)
Charl Schwartzl $7,400 (M71, 5%)
Jason Dufner $6,500 (M7, 2%)
Kyle Stanley $6,800 (M9, 5%)
Adam Long $6,900 (M15, 5%)
Talor Gooch $6,900 (M25, 3%)
Pat Perez $6,900 (M26, 4%)
Tyler Duncan $6,500 (M35, 1%)
Tom Hoge $6,500 (M36, 1%)
Sam Ryder $6,700 (M52, 2%)
Chesson Hadley $6,600 (M53, 3%)
I’m going to start by saying this feels like a week to take it easy on the bankroll. Not that I don’t like my player pool, but pricing seems to be off everywhere, all the top guys have reason to fade them. The majority of my player pool as you can see comes from the low end guys (7k & 6k) and while I think a few golfers should be higher priced in this section, it also make me worry. I think going in, I’m gonna hammer the top guys, going overweight on everyone (except Simpson, sheez) and then run sprinkles of the low tier to get as many combinations as possible.
Ryan Moore
Russell Henley
Henrik Norlander
Harold Varner III
**I did not include Simpson as I try to stay out of the top priced guys, as it tends to lower your lineups floor. The 2020 Wyndham Championship IS Simpson’s tournament, he may be necessary to cash, especially if he reaches like 40+% ownership in cash, which is very possible**
10K – Simpson (Lock and differentiate elsewhere)
9K – English
8K – Ryan Moore & Brandon Todd
7K – Henley, Norlander, Redman, Varner III & Glover
6K – Dufner, Stanley & Long
10K – Koepka & Fleetwood
9K – Rose
8K – Conners & Lowry
7K – Cauley, Niemann, Bezuidenhout & Schwab
6K – Gooch, Perez & Duncan
8K – Reavie
7K – Johnson, Harman, Lewis, List & Schwartzel
6K – Hoge, Ryder & Hadley
As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…
10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%
These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2020 Wyndham Championship, you may want to take more of a chance on some players and leave more money on the table then usual.
Projected Ownership – FanShareSports
Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Justin Rose and I’m fading Paul Casey, so you can grab the MORE BOB for Rose and the LESS BOB for Casey and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 Wyndham Championship. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
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