WM Phoenix Open Picks

Before getting into our betting tips for the WM Phoenix Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Scottsdale, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

As always, the honourable mentions who failed to make the betting card at the WM Phoenix Open. Sungjae Im was heavily considered. He had a much better end to 2023 than many gave him credit for. He also holds excellent course history here, with prior performance proven a strong indicator for success. Some of his poor performance can be attributed to reported illness last week. However, losing on approach for three consecutive tournaments was sufficient to see him narrowly excluded.

Austin Eckroat looks to be a real talent and one I am monitoring closely, as is Vincent Norrman. Tom Kim also took a fair amount of my attention this week. Chiefly, his excellent performances at TPC Summerlin should translate well to this venue. Typically a very good putter, I have been somewhat put off by his start to 2024. Having lost quite significantly putting at all three tournaments this year and some indifferent iron play, I have started to develop concerns whether there may be a deeper underlying problem there. He remains a “wait and see” for now.

WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 5 Feb at 8pm ET

Byeong-Hun An
2pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite
1.5pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adam Hadwin
1.5pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Kurt Kitayama
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Harris English
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Sam Ryder
0.5pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +150 (Bet365)

J.J. Spaun
0.5pt E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

A real question raises this week with Xander and Viktor withdrawing. The top of the board is left looking somewhat barren as a result. Even more so with DFS, where pricing can not be adjusted after it is set. If you were to take a stance on either Scottie Scheffler or Justin Thomas, I really couldn’t begrudge you doing so. In doing so, you would need to go all in with your preferred selection. Certainly, it is the simplest way to view the week.

Scheffler holds the most appeal to me of the two. He is quite easily the best in the world over the last two years from 150-200 yards. It is his strongest approach bucket. No wonder he is looking to complete a three-peat here this week! Of course, the question is the putter. Should he putt at anything above field average he likely wins here. Thomas for me looks too short in the market at current odds of 10/1. Yes, he has been much improved than a morbid 2023. He does very well in 150-200 yard approach shots, but historically struggles over 200 yards. He should be better priced at fair odds of 14/1 in my models.

As such, we are able to speculate on some longer shots again this week. This allows us to deploy 30 units, but take an expanded selection of 8 golfers in our WM Phoenix Open betting tips.

Byeong-Hun An

With question marks and short odds around all those after Scheffler and JT, we arrive at Benny An. I did go back and forth between Sungjae Im and Byeong-Hun An here. As mentioned in the preview, the atypical iron play from Sungjae saw fellow Korean Benny An preferred.

A resurgent end to 2023 has put him on many people’s radar. A large part of that has come down to finding some real gains with his putter. He has now gained putting in 8/9 tournaments since July 2023. Previously, this was one of the weaker parts of his game.

Plenty long off the tee and accurate enough to get the job done at TPC Scottsdale, he is a big gainer on approach from 100-200 yards. This is the best approach ranges for him. It should come as no surprise in betting that he holds a good record at the WM Phoenix Open. He has starts of a 6th on debut followed by 23-20-9-53.

He also possesses a good record at TPC San Antonio, with a 7th in 2019 and 6th last year in just 4 starts. This former winner of the BMW PGA Championship (Wentworth also typically rewarding ball-strikers) is trending towards a debut PGA Tour win soon.

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite

Cole proved to be an easy bet for me this week. Continually disrespected by books and DFS providers alike, it seems only a victory will suffice.

Being neither overly long off the tee nor accurate with the driver, Eric Cole’s game is built around his excellent approach play. For this golf course, which SG: OTT is not hugely predictive, it seems a perfect fit. He is the 6th best in this field over the last 12 months for SG: APP. He also particularly excels in the key 150-200 yard approach bucket. He again ranks 6th in this field in the past year in that range. It is the strongest distance for him, followed narrowly by 100-150 yards. 72% of approach shots are predicted in that range this week.

Missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open may have taken him off many people’s radar. Fact is, Torrey Pines is perhaps one of the worst courses on tour for Cole. It marked his first missed cut since May 2023, a run of 18 tournaments. He bounced right back to form at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, finishing 14th. He was also 4th best in the tournament for SG: APP for good measure. A 3rd in Las Vegas at TPC Summerlin in October is another hint that this may be the week for Eric Cole.

Adam Hadwin

Another opportunity for us to roll with the desert fox this week! Again, Hadwin ticks the box in the key approach range of 150-200 yards and is an excellent putter. Hadwin’s affinity with desert golf was again on full display at the American Express. It is a tournament he holds a great record, which he only reaffirmed with a 6th place finish two weeks ago.

His form at TPC Scottsdale is also solid. 10th last year came in a very strong field when this was still officially a designated signature special event. Prior to that, he had finishes of 17-12-43-44-40-50-26-10 here. Further adding to the desert form was a 4th at the Valero Texas Open last year, 2nd and 10th at TPC Summerlin in 2023, and a previous 5th and 8th at Colonial.

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value

Grillo has long been the hero of the ball-striking truthers. The perennial excellent approach player who has struggled with the putter. If only all could find the same solutions Grillo did in 2023.

Somehow, Grillo really found something with the putter last year. Sufficiently so that he is actually the 31st best putter in this field over the past 12 months, 15th in the last 6 months, and 5th over the past 90 days. The ball-striking is still impressive. Particularly, the key range of 150-200 yards where is ranks 11th in this field over the last year.

A winner at Colonial in 2023 again hints desert golf should suit. He also holds a 3rd, 19th, and 8th at that course. As does some sneaky DP World Tour form, where he finished 4th in a very strong field at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the season ending tournament of the 2015 Race to Dubai.

Starting 2024 with results of 7-20-14 in the past 3 weeks bodes well for another victory shortly.

Kurt Kitayama

A great option as a boom-or-bust play, Kitayama always feels a bit all or nothing for me. He is the type of player that makes the most of his chances, proving he can mix it with the best when he finds himself in contention.

2022 and 2023 provide plenty of evidence of his relentless attitude at the biggest events. 2022 saw him 2nd at the Scottish Open and 7th at the Italian Open, both with strong fields. The latter of course was a DP World Tour event, but was well attended due to being the impending host of the Ryder Cup. 2023 of course brought the win at Bay Hill, far from the worst comp to TPC Scottsdale. He complimented that with a 5th at Austin Country Club in the match-play and 4th at the PGA Championship.

Sticking to theme, Kitayama does his best approach play over 150 yards. His wedges are typically his weakest aspect, so gaining plenty on approach last week at Pebble Beach is seen positively.

With just one look at this course, he managed a 23rd in an elevated event here last year gaining plenty with the putter and ball-striking. The putter will be key for him as always, but the performance on the greens here in 2023 provides plenty of promise at 80/1.

Harris English

An excellent putter who is often held back by his lack of distance off the tee, English has shown some decent return to form over the past 6 months. Included in that was an 8th at the US Open, with LACC again far from the worst you could do for guidance here given Rickie Fowler’s performance at both.

Previously he has a 3rd, 9th, 15th, and 16th at this tournament. A 12th at Colonial last year came the week after a missed cut, hinting at the type of course that may best suit his game. He also holds a runner-up and 5th on that course.

Of course, he does his best approach work in the 150+ yards buckets. A 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship and 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023 again point to his best work coming from distance.

Sam Ryder

Flagged as one of the highest value plays in my models, Ryder looks well over priced at 150/1. 20th here when an elevated event followed a 23rd the year prior, where he has never missed a cut here in 5 attempts.

Of no surprise, he again pops in the 150-200 yard range. He sits just behind Eric Cole in 7th for SG: APP in that key range over the past 12 months. For total approach, he ranks 6th in this field over the last 6 months.

The 3rd at TPC San Antonio last year was very nearly a win for him. TPC Summerlin is also ticked, with a 3rd, 18th and two 28th place finishes most recently. He has always been at field average or gained putting at this tournament, demonstrating a sense of comfort on these greens above other venues. Ryder looks worth a small look in win markets, but equally great value in Top 20 and Top 40 finish markets.

J.J. Spaun

Finally, we conclude our WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips with a speculative look at Spaun.

Obviously, the venue of his 2022 Valero Texas Open win is well correlated to here. Large green complexes featuring the same grass, near identical distance metrics, and desert waste areas waiting to catch your ball if you stray massively offline. He also holds a 26th and a 22nd at TPC San Antonio most recently. Spaun has a 10th and a pair of 15th placed finishes in 7 starts at TPC Summerlin to his name.

It should be no surprise Spaun found immediate liking to this venue, featuring 4th in just his 9th PGA Tour start. Of most promise, he has always putted well on these greens. He has always gained or been at field average in all his appearances. In this weaker field in 2024, he is worth a bet at the long 200/1 odds on offer.

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