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Win Daily Sports

PGA DFS is BACK!

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Grab your balls…your clubs, your tees, your foot joys, put them all on EBay because you won’t have time to play a round with DFS Golf starting up THIS THURSDAY ! We have the Sentry Tournament of Champions coming up this week with a loaded field of select golfers who all won a tournament. Over the next few months we will witness the PGA, the US Open, the British Open, and last but certainly not least, the Masters, and this time the Azaleas will be in full bloom. In between will be opportunities to make money every week on other PGA tourneys, it’s a full schedule and there are lots of questions this year. PGA DFS is BACK!

D.J. smoked the field at the Masters and left no doubt, allegedly he has put up his toys, (cocaine and a hot girlfriend) and is serious about golf. Bryson allegedly has been sequestered with Einstein’s relatives about a formula to make a drive go 500 yards accurately, I think he should work on getting a drive to go 360 accurately, but that’s just me. There’s a whole class of rookies from last year, most from Oklahoma State that are definitely legit. There is no truth to the rumor there’s a possum shortage on the PGA grounds. Our own Patrick “Sharps” Scott has packed his sunscreen, floaties and flip flops, and in an unrelated move, Collin Morikawa has beefed up his security detail.

I will be offering projections on ownership, and also contrarian plays. They are more risky, but that risk allowed me to take down 10,000.00 with a 5.00 play a couple of months ago. My crew in Palo Alto said we came in at 97.6% on our ownership projections, they have been working with me on the models for this year, and there are exciting times ahead! I find it strange that anyone with PhD behind their name always want more money, or at least enough to keep them in hot pockets and Mountain Dew while they crunch numbers all night. We also have Patrick, Isaiah, Antonio and another guy. Who else is as excited as we are that PGA DFS is back?

This other guy isn’t just a guy. He’s able to leap the chalk in a single bound, his picks rise faster than a speeding bullet, even faster than a locomotive, that’s right, I’m talking about “Super Sia” and his Secret Weapon!! Those of you who play his SW know how deadly accurate it is. Picking a golfer in the 6 K range, under 5% owned, in other words, that nobody else wants,(incredibly difficult) and watching that pick blow through kryptonite is amazing. It is the hardest play to analyze in sports, trust me, I live in that 6-7 K range looking for anomalies all the time. In all the tournaments last year, his record was 25-2. He had one of his last picks finish second, think about that, a 6 K golfer, under 3% owned, who finishes 2nd. Wow. Together all of us will be providing metrics, ownership projections, roster construction, one on one analysis, and one on one coaching in Discord. We will all have articles out starting with Sia’s initial look at the tourney, followed by lots of other articles and Sia, Joel and Michael will have the livestream on Tuesday evenings. Michael will discuss everyone shaving their junk, don’t worry, it’s a sponsor thing and nothing personal, I think…

We are all looking forward to an exciting and rewarding season, we appreciate all you members, and we are here at Win Daily Sports
for a purpose, to have fun and get you paid. I know we can’t wait till Thursday AM lock and I’ll be back with the Sentry Tournament of Champions projections on Wednesday afternoon.

I look forward to being with you, in the money on Sunday. PGA DFS is BACK!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week 17 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

I hope everyone had a happy holiday season and a wonderful start to their new year! Loved seeing all of the screenshots of wins last week. Always nice to come back to see everyone winning! Lets get back to it and are dive into a crazy 15-game Week 17 NFL DFS main slate.
The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 17, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

CHALK REPORT: Ty Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Jon Taylor, Alexander Mattison, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and George Kittle project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Crunched for time this week so just listing off the players in my cash pool:

Top QB Targets

Lamar Jackson – save for cash, but blowout potential in this one. Lamar will go balls to the wall to win this game, let’s just hope it stays close to keep him in all four quarters.
Ryan Tannehill – Top play for me. Houston’s defense is awful, we just smashed with Brandon Allen last week, lol.
Aaron Rodgers – No one as safe as Rodgers in hopes to close out his MVP season and a first round BYE.

Value QB Targets

4. Drew Lock – Any opportunity to pick on the Raiders’ defense

5. Kirk Cousins – Expecting a Vikings’ pass attack onslaught

Running Backs

Derrick Henry
Jonathan Taylor – Has the ability to put up Henry-like numbers today against a Jacksonville team that has no interest in winning a football game.
Myles Gaskin – AETY Model likes his chances at garnering the third most touches on this slate in a must-win game for the Dolphins. Workload/Volume is incredibly important in NFL DFS cash game builds.
Melvin Gordon – Don’t use him with Drew Lock in cash, but great price for a three-down back against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL (it’s them or Houston, lol).
Wayne Gallman – Vander Esch is one of the key run-stoppers for Dallas and he again will miss this game. Expect the Giants to lean on Gallman for 16+ touches in a must-win game.
Ty Montgomery – Disgusting, but there’s no running back healthy for New Orleans. He should be a lock for 3-5 catches, but don’t be surprised if Taysom Hill gets the goal-line work.
Malcolm Brown – Cam Akers may suit up but my guess is that’s for an emergency backup role. Brown should get a ton of touches in a game the Rams must win to have playoff hopes.

Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Rodney Smith, Ty Johnson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams
Justin Jefferson
Robert Woods – only game in town for the Rams if you’re not using Malcolm Brown
AJ Brown – matchup against Vernon Hargreaves in the highest total game on the slate… yes, please.
Tyler Lockett – San Francisco secondary is extremely banged up and this is the perfect buy-low week for Lockett who’s price dropped significantly on NFL DFS slates.
Laviska Shenault – Too cheap for the WR1 in JAX in a game they’ll be chasing points from the get-go.
Jerry Jeudy – AETY expects his target share to be ~30% for the day… at $4,200 on DraftKings sign me up.

Value WRs
Marquez Callaway – my preferred punt at the WR position.
Josh Reynolds – meh
Richie James

Tight Ends

George Kittle
Darren Waller
Jonnu Smith
Irv Smith
Jordan Akins
Noah Fant

*Defense is all over the board today with multiple teams sitting their starters. Most of my builds go to Jets or the Browns*

NFL DFS Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Derrick Henry
RB: Ty Montgomery
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Richie James
TE: Jordan Akins
Flex: Jonathan Taylor
DST: New York Jets

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

A hit and miss Week 12 for our NFL DFS Cash Games. If you followed the article and mixed in Jarvis Landry, you cashed. If you ate all of the chalk, you likely didn’t. I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid, yet somewhat ugly Week 13 slate.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

CHALK REPORT: Devontae Booker, James Robinson, David Montgomery, Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, and Brandin Cooks ALL project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 35%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST TWO or THREE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – He’s quite expensive on both outlets, but hard to find a saver quarterback on this slate than Russell Wilson (maybe Kyler, but we are assuming Kyler Murray isn’t 100% healthy yet). The Giants pass defense has been very poor all season long ranking 25th in run defense DVOA.

Russ and a healthy receiving core will always be in play for cash games.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,500 FD) – The AETY Model absolutely loves Aaron Rodgers this week… projecting for over 280 pass yards and almost 3 passing touchdowns. We have to respect Darius Slay and arguably the #1 pass rush in the NFL, but I trust the model and Matt LaFleur’s unique offense to get the job done on Sunday.
Cam Newton ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. The Chargers’ defense is bad and absolutely be carved up in all facets of the game. With the rushing floor of Cam Newton being bumped up a bit more with Rex Burkhead now on IR, I’ll roll the dice on Cam Newton and his legs against the 31st ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA) at this low of a price-tag.
Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Your salary saving punt of the week, Mitch Trubisky. It’s not saying much, but Trubisky has absolutely owned the Detroit Lions throughout his brief career (106 passer rating over 6 games). This Lions’ team is in shambles and bleeds points to opposing quarterbacks (and receivers, and running backs… pretty much everyone, lol).

As long as Allen Robinson (knee) is healthy, Trubisky and the Bears will put up serviceable numbers for your cash game builds.

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, DeShaun Watson, Taysom Hill, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK / $10,500 FD) – Crazy expensive yet again and yes, Dalvin was disappointing last week but it likely didn’t matter for your cash game build as 85% of the field rostered him. He’s clearly the top-dog running back on this slate against one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL.

If the ankle issues scare you, Derrick Henry is not a bad replacement in your cash game lineup.
James Robinson ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – Absolutely auto-play on FanDuel and likely DraftKings as well (he’s the most popular player on this slate). The Vikings’ run defense isn’t awful (4.3 yards per attempt to opposing running backs) but it’s also nothing to write home about. James Robinson played > 95% of the Jaguars snaps last week… that’s outrageous usage.
Chris Carson ($6,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – As of now, Chris Carson is my favorite play on all of the slate (outside of maybe Miles Sanders, but I don’t think we can use him in cash). If you’re not using a share of the Seattle’s passing game in your cash game build, use Chris Carson. They have a 29-point implied team total against a bottom 10 defense in the NFL. You’re going to want a piece of this offense someway, somehow.
David Montgomery ($5,500 DK / $6,200 FD) & Devontae Booker ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD) – Take at least one of the two “freesquare” value plays in your cash game lineup this week. I will likely be using both of them to afford higher end pass-catchers.
Myles Gaskin ($5,900 DK) – He’s been ruled active. Everyone else for Miami is out. Wheels up, Gaskin.

Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – With Will Fuller out for the foreseeable future, load up Brandin Cooks in your cash games with the rest of the DFS community. I personally think he’s an easy fade in GPPs, but in NFL DFS Cash Games, you have to fire him up.
Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Do we really need to say anything about the best fantasy receiver in the game?
DK Metcalf ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD) – Much more affordable on FanDuel but certainly in play in all formats in Week 13. I don’t care about a James Bradberry shadow, the air yards, target share, and most importantly, the skill of DK Metcalf are likely second to none. Metcalf is becoming an absolute star before our eyes and is impossible to cover. The pace of this game is likely to be very ugly and sluggish, so that’s why I prefer just using Carson.
Minnesota Vikings – Honestly, Jacksonville’s secondary is shockingly bad. We called the monster Jarvis Landry outing last week and should go right back to the well here with either Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson. I prefer Jefferson only because he’s cheaper.
Robert Woods ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – One of my favorite games to attack will be the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The price on woods is way too low here and I highly doubt he’ll see shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson. The way McVay schemes Woods open is enough for me to buy in at this price point (regardless of the opposition’s game plan).
Michael Pittman ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD) – Pittman is one of my favorite plays on this slate. Bradley Roby is out for Houston due to the PEDs with his buddy, Will Fuller… leaving Vernon Hargreaves as the top corner in the Houston secondary… that is a massive advantage to Pittman. Lock him in at this price!

The Value Wideouts:
Denzel Mims ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD) – Mims has been coming on rather strong lately and is clearly the most talented player in this New York offense (that isn’t saying much). The AETY Model loves his most recent air yards share and is projecting him for over a 21% total target share in Week 13. At this low of a price-point, that projected target share is incredibly rare.
Darnell Mooney ($3,400 DK / $5,100 FD) – Likely not in play for cash unless you can stomach a Bears’ stack in your cash game lineup. Having said that, Mooney is on the field virtually as much as any wideout in the NFL and ranks 10th in my adjusted expected average depth of target ranking… in the whole league (not to mention the highest air yard percentage on this Chicago team). This dude is going to explode one of these weeks and you need to buy in soon.

I prefer Mooney in GPPs, but at this price, his floor is plenty high in cash games with a day full of Amani Oruwariye in coverage.
Keke Coutee ($3,500 DK / $4,800 FD) – I’m not into Coutee at all, but with Cobb and Fuller gone, he’s a value play, I guess. Just play Cooks in cash instead.

Honorable Mention: Mohammed Sanu, DJ Chark, Tyler Lockett

Tight Ends

Darren Waller ($6,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – No Kelce on this slate so load up Waller as your top-tier tight end this week. I don’t love the expected gamescript here, but I do believe the Jets can keep it close enough to ensure Waller stays quite active in the passing game against Greg Williams’ swiss-cheese zone defense.
Anthony Firkser ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD) – Freesquare of the week with Jonnu Smith out. His ownership projection is now over 25%. I get it, we don’t need much at this price point. This is a good game to invest in to say the least.
Evan Engram ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – We’ve been preaching Evan Engram all season long and won’t stop now. It’s been a blessing to watch him go to work each week healthy which we’ve never seen before. I don’t what to expect from Engram with Colt McCoy under center, but he will target Engram enough to warrant a cash game play, while playing catch up against Seattle.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Jordan Akins, Robert Tonyan, Kyle Rudolph

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
New York Jets

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL THANKSGIVING DAY: DraftKings & FanDuel Plays

4 years ago

written by

First and foremost I am grateful for everyone who took the time to click on this article and the simple fact that you are a part of the Win Daily Family! We are blessed to be able to talk sports everyday and to have you in our community. If anyone is struggling making lineups, need advice, an opportunity, or help, you know where to find me and the rest of our team. Hop in our expert chat and ask away and I will do my best to help each and every one of you to the best of my ability. This is my favorite slate of the entire year, NFL THANKSGIVING DAY DFS has arrived and I’m expecting a big day for all of us so lets break down this slate!

Strategy is very important on this slate, just like any other slate. With only 3 games on the slate we have to avoid mistakes, we need raw points, and we need 1-2 plays that are under owned in order to climb the leaderboards. My approach to the NFL Thanksgiving Day Slate is a little different than typical main Sunday slates. What I do every year is pretty simple. I first build my GPP lines and I simply get exposure to every quarterback as ugly as it may look like on paper. I force in each quarterback and make game stacks of each game from both angles.

Is Alex Smith going to be in my optimal single entry lineup? NO.

Is Andy Dalton a elite QB? NO.

Will I have a shares of each? YES.

Ok so here is the plan. Imagine you have $100 to invest in this slate for tournaments and a $150 for cash games. This is a sample how I would split it up. If you have a strong feel I would change the ownership up slightly and you can always push the envelope on your game stacks by adding more pieces into a stack.

Tournament Structure

Deshaun Watson 30%: Have one stack with Cooks, one with Fuller, one with Cooks and Fuller. Don’t mind sneaking in Duke or Akins in as well. Run the stacks back with one or two Lions.
Lamar Jackson 20%: Have one stack with Andrews, have one with Hollywood or Duvernay. Run stack back with one or two Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger 20%: Have one stack with Johnson, have one with Claypool. If Juju is out for any reason run a stack with both Johnson and Claypool. Run back with one or two Ravens.
Matthew Stafford 10%: We need news on Golladay and Amendola. Will most likely have a stack with just Hockenson or Jones. Run back with one or two Texans.
Andy Dalton 10%: Have a stack with Cooper or Lamb. Run back with one or two Redskins.
Alex Smith 10%: Have a stack with Terry. Run back with one or two Cowboys.

My Player pool for Tournaments

Texans

Deshaun Watson
Duke Johnson
Brandin Cooks
Will Fuller
Jordan Akins

Lions

Matthew Stafford
Need Clarity on Swift (if he is in I love him)
If Swift is out both Peterson and Johnson are in play
Need Clarity on Golladay & Amendola
Marvin Jones Jr.
Marvin Hall
TJ Hockenson

Football Team

Alex Smith
Antonio Gibson
Terry McLaurin
Cam Sims
Steven Sims Jr.
Logan Thomas

Cowboys

Andy Dalton
Ezekiel Elliot
Amari Cooper
Ceedee Lamb
Michael Gallup
Dalton Schultz

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger
James Connor
Ben Snell
Diontae Johnson
Chase Claypool
Juju Smith-Schuster
James Washington (only if Juju out)
Eric Ebron

Ravens

Lamar Jackson
Gus Edwards
Justice Hill
Marquise Brown
Mark Andrews
Devin Duvernay
Willie Snead

Cash Games

Its a Deshaun Watson lock button for cash games on both sites. The matchup, the rushing floor, and the fact that Duke Johnson has a yard per carry that is approaching zero makes Watson the quarterback you want for cash games. He will be popular for good reason so don’t get cute.

At running back I think you need to take the discount and grab Gus Edwards here and pair him with Ezekiel Elliott to the best of your ability. I don’t mind sliding in Swift if he starts or Gibson if you want to pivot.

At wide receiver the first person I will be sliding in is Terry McLaurin. The floor is high and the same thing goes with Cooks. The third man in will be Diontae Johnson. I will try my best to lock these 3 as my wide receiver combo for cash.

At tight end depending on how much cash you have left, pending the site you’re playing on, and the flex choice you make I will either go Andrews, Hockenson, Thomas, or Akins if I need some extra savings.

At flex pending your build here are the guys I would be looking at. First up is Swift if he ends up starting. Second is the running back that didn’t make it to your running back spot, so either Zeke or Gibson. If you cant there I don’t mind either fuller, cooper, or lamb. Now in your flex spot make sure you have someone from the latest possible game in this spot in case you need to pivot for whatever reason.

At Defense if you can get to the Steelers go for it, but don’t force it. Next up would be Dallas or Washington at a nice discount. If you need to the Lions are the next team up.

Make sure you check our projection models by clicking here as Nick will be updating them every couple hours and adjusting accordingly.

I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving and make sure once lineups lock you spend some quality time with your friends & family!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 11

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 11. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers (22.88)
Minnesota Vikings (22.18)
New England Patriots (21.90)
Atlanta Falcons (21.13)
New Orleans Saints (20.92)
Baltimore Ravens (20.58)

My Personal Top Stacks:
– Dallas Cowboys
– Minnesota Vikings
– Baltimore Ravens
– Atlanta Falcons
– Cincinnati Bengals

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson – Clearly the top-dog Quarterback on this slate without Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Russell Wilson. His price is respectable, if not too-cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He should be coming into this slate around 15-20% owned but I’ll be shocked if he eclipses 10% in total ownership.

Tennessee has absolutely no pass rush and a beaten-up secondary. Lamar will get in done via the run and the pass like he did in 2019tomorrow and replicate a monster outing he put on the Titans last year in the playoffs.

Use him naked or pair him up with Hollywood Brown and/or Mark Andrews. This is a plus-matchup for both of them! Don’t forget about Derrick Henry on the back-side of this game for some correlation.
Andy Dalton – He’s just way too cheap on DraftKings ($5,300) and offers us a perfect pivot off of 20% owned, Taysom Hill (LOL). I do not understand the love for playing Hill at Quarterback. Load up Dalton against this sieve of a pass defense in Minnesota.

The only headache here is who to pair him up with but there are plenty of good choices to roll out there and then of course using Dalvin Cook and/or Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen on the back-end.

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Joe Burrow, DeShaun Watson

Running Backs

Miles Sanders – No idea how Sanders isn’t coming in over 15% on current ownership projections. I absolutely loved what I saw out of Miles Sanders last week despite having two touchdowns somewhat vultured away from him (Boston Scott earned his, even though he stepped out).

There are very few backs that get as many touches as Miles Sanders but all of them are priced over $7K on DraftKings (outside of Mike Davis) and over $8K on FanDuel. Keep in mind, Myles Garrett being out leaves a big hole in this Cleveland defense.
Ezekiel Elliott (DraftKings) – We’ve never seen Zeke at $6,500 on DraftKings and I don’t think we ever will again. Take advantage of these savings now that Erving and Martin make their return to Dallas’ offensive line.

The AETY Model has this game handicapped for a total of 52 points and really loves it’s potential to shootout. Getting a 18+ touch Zeke Elliott really intrigues me in NFL DFS GPP lineups at $6,500 in salary.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, James Conner

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley – I love Matt Ryan this week against the pass funnel, New Orleans defense. I have no idea what to expect from the pace of the Taysom Hill led Saints’ offense, but if they play with a decent tempo, I love this game’s ability to go over the total.

If that happens, sub-10% owned Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are in prime spots to produce. If given one choice, I’d choose Ridley due to the savings and seeing more or Janoris Jenkins in coverage, but they’re both great NFL DFS GPP plays in Week 11.
Adam Thielen – If Justin Jefferson is going to garner twice as much ownership as Adam Thielen, I’ll have a ton of Thielen on Sunday. I’ve talked enough about how much I like this game and I love the pairing of Dalvin Cook/Adam Thielen on the other side of my Cowboys’ stacks.
Tyler Boyd – Tyler Boyd under $6K in salary… just go ask Ghost what we do when that is a scenario for an upcoming NFL DFS GPP slate. Jimmy Moreland is a bottom tier slot-cornerback and will struggle all game long against an elite route runner like Tyler Boyd. Both of these teams play at a solid pace so there should be plenty of opportunities for Boyd to shine.
Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers – Again, I’m not sure who to rank the highest for my Andy Dalton stacks, but if I had to choose, I’d probably lean Amari Cooper first, Michael Gallup (he’s so damn cheap) second, and CeeDee Lamb as the odd man out (or minimal shares in 150 entry contests).

As most of you are not 150-max entry players, I think you should focus around building your Dallas lineups with Cooper/Gallup or Cooper/Elliott. If you need salary relief in any other NFL DFS GPP lineup, Michael Gallup is more than a viable punt this week as a one-off.

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Denzel Mims, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, Marvin Jones, Robby Anderson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

TJ Hockenson – No idea how this dude isn’t projected for 15% ownership, again! No Danny Amendola this week only makes this sweeter for Hockenson.

Honorable Mention: All of the Popular Tight Ends (Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst)

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Games. Let’s get right back at it for a solid showing yet again in Week 10, which is a bit of a strange slate to say the least.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Mike Davis (lock in cash), Duke Johnson, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs all project to be incredibly high in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two or three of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Kyler Murray at this point in the season? No. No we do not. You know what you’re getting out of Kyler Murray and 15% or more of the field is going to roster him against Buffalo and their mediocre defense.
Josh Allen ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – On the other side of Kyler Murray is Mr. Josh Allen. Thank the lord we decided he was our QB1 last week and I have no problem if you go back to the well with Allen on the road as a slight underdog in a 56-point total. This game is going to be fun to watch and offer a lot of fireworks from a fantasy standpoint.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Mike Davis ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Just use him. McCaffrey is out and Davis is clearly mis-priced. He should be 100% owned in cash games and his output doesn’t matter. It’s not an ideal matchup against the 3rd best run defense in the league, but I find it nearly impossible for him not to get to 13+ fantasy points. Take the savings and run on the Davis freesquare.
Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – The lead running back on the team with the highest Adjusted Expected Team Total, at home, against the worst overall defense in the NFL (32nd in overall defense DVOA). My only concern with Jones is the return of Jamaal Williams who is certainly going to get plenty of snaps out of this Green Bay backfield (especially if this game gets out of hand).
Duke Johnson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another freesquare with David Johnson ruled out with a concussion. I little bit better of a matchup than Mike Davis against Tampa Bay, but he’s also $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings (very affordable on FanDuel). If you want to use two punt running backs and pay up at QB/WR/TE, your path to victory in cash would be using Davis and Johnson together.

I’m not sure that’s the way I want my lineup to look with Johnson being quite inefficient via the run, but the pass catching ability should alleviate any concerns we have about Johnson’s floor for cash games.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson, Giovani Bernard, Kalen Ballage, James Robinson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Davante Adams against the absolute worst pass defense in the the NFL. Check mate. Personally, I am only going to play one Packer (Jones or Adams). Right now, I’m leaning Adams.
Stefon Diggs ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) – I love the value here on FanDuel, but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings as well… Especially when 25% of the field (if not more) is going to roster Diggs in NFL DFS cash games. Whether or not Patrick Peterson shadows should not deter you from rostering the best route runner in the NFL who owns a ~30% target share.
Michael Thomas ($7,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – Just way too cheap for Michael Thomas against a completely depleted, struggling secondary in San Francisco. Thomas led the team in targets last week and will start to get back to a similar workload he had in 2019 (certainly not as high of a floor he had last year, but it’s still incredibly high).
Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800) – Is there anyone in the NFL that’s been more consistent than Keenan Allen? No. No, there isn’t. Remember just a few weeks ago when were so high on Cooper Kupp in this same matchup against Miami’s slot cornerback, Nik Needham? Yea, let’s ride. Keenan is as safe as ever to get to 2.5x value in you NFL DFS Cash Games.
Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – In the first game without Odell Beckham we saw Jarvis rack up 11 targets (in that gale-force wind game against Las Vegas). I’m always going to be interested in sure-handed wide receivers with a 30% target share. Pair all of that with a matchup against Houston’s Eric Murray and Vernon Hargreaves and you’re going to be happy with the result.

Hell, Jake Luton and the Jaguars’ receiving core went nuts last week…
Josh Reynolds ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD) – Reynolds comes into the week grading out as the #1 NFL DFS value in the AETY Model for wide receivers. We all know how much of a pass funnel defense Seattle is as team’s torch them on a weekly basis. Reynolds is locked in for a minimum of 75% of the Rams’ offensive snaps assuming this game goes up-paced like Vegas and the pre-match 56 point total support.

I’d certainly prefer Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp here, but at this price, I’ll always sign off on cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Chris Conley, Tyler Lockett, Jakeem Grant, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker

Tight Ends

Tight end seems like an absolute wasteland this week with no Travis Kelce. I don’t have a great read on where I’m going yet, but here are my top options on the slate.

Darren Waller ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
Greg Olsen ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Mike Davis
RB: Duke Johnson
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Reynolds
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Alvin Kamara
DST: Detroit Lions

4 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Caesars Sportsbook Partnership Review

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

Caesars Sportsbook

With their purchase of William Hill in April, 2021, Caesars now has nearly 85 years of roots. There is no sportsbook out there with the reputation that Caesars carries in the industry. By offering a diverse selection of betting types through its mobile and desktop interfaces, William Hill is a perfect place for both beginners and expert sports bettors. As one of, if not the biggest sportsbook in the industry, William Hill has cemented its position as one of the market’s leaders.

Click here to go to Caesars Sportsbook

Promotions

Joining the biggest sportsbook in the market has its perks, one being the promotions that they offer on a regular basis. By creating a new account, every Win Daily member is eligible for a deposit match up to $1,500. In addition, it’s a regular occurrence for Caesars to have enhanced odds on the most popular markets and betting types and their respective wagers.

Click here to Claim Offer

At a Glance

Caesars’ interface is one of the best in the industry because it is simply easy to find what you’re looking for. The website is well-built with a tile system to sort by sport or betting type, just as their mobile application is. Featuring your bet slip on the home page, the top five wagers of the day and popular in-play bets at the time of arrival to the website, Caesars saves you from having to click multiple links to get to where you want to be. The website features their customer support chat, responsible gambling tips, a page to make changes to your account, and every type of interaction you’re looking for in a sportsbook: betting, live betting, Vegas games, Casino games, and poker.

Betting Options

Being one of the market-leading sportsbooks, Caesars has plenty to offer to its customers. While Caesars has the classic betting types, such as spreads, money lines, and game totals, they also offer an extensive selection of a growing phenomenon in the industry: props. Moreover, there is also a live betting section dedicated to the platform, where users can bet on games that are already in progress. Caesars also has a great “Cash Out” feature that allows for sports bettors to “cash-out” their wager before it is finalized; whether you’re bet is trending toward winning and you want to play it safe by cashing out a sum less than the potential payout but larger than your wager, or you want to cut your losses on a bet that is trending in the wrong direction, the component of their sportsbook is useful to track your bets and manage your bankroll. William Hill currently offers:

Spread
Moneyline
Game Total
Team Total
Player/Team Props
Live Betting
Teasers
Futures

User Experience

Caesars has an established presence in the sports betting industry based on reputation and longevity alone, but their superior user experience is something noteworthy whilst discussing their strengths. By having a website that is easy to navigate via the tabs at the top of the page, you can easily find what you need in the sports betting lobby, casino, Vegas games, or online poker. When selecting the sports tab, you are prompted to then sort by sports, where a menu will pop up with various games, both in-play and happening later that night. Moreover, there is a clean tile format to select which type of wager you’d like to place, in addition to having the ability to change how the odds are displayed without going to your account home page. All of this is also available in Caesars’ mobile application as well, so you’re able to keep the fun going while you’re on the move!

Availability

Known to be the most international sportsbook in the industry, Caesars is currently offered in over 70 countries. In the United States, residents of Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia & West Virginia can all take advantage of the leading sportsbook’s services as they attempt to further their footprint as state regulations improve in the United States.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

It was refreshing to see a normal (if not below-average) pay-line in our NFL DFS Cash Games in Week 8, to say the least. Let’s get right back at it for another solid Week 9.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett all project for over 20% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $9,000) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a Buffalo defense who has surprisingly struggled at all facets of the game. Somehow DraftKings lowered his price from last week?
Josh Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Allen hasn’t done much lately but for every other quarterback in the NFL, this has been the get-right spot against Seattle’s 30th ranked pass defense (in DVOA). Seattle is the ultimate pass-funnel defense and Allen also offers a lot of upside with his legs. He should have no issues getting over 22 fantasy points this weekend.
Justin Herbert ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Herbert is absolutely on fire while averaging over 27 DraftKings’ points per game since being named the starter. The Raiders’ defense as a whole is absolute trash and coming into this week ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA. Like Allen and Russ, Herbert offers a lot of upside with his rushing abilities. It’s hard to not love him this week.
Drew Lock ($5,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need the savings on DraftKings, Lock makes a ton of sense against Atlanta and their pass-funnel defense. Atlanta ranks second in opposing quarterback fantasy points per game (over 25 points allowed per game), so if there’s any week to trust Drew Lock, it’s this week. The return of Tim Patrick helps lock significantly as well.

Honorable Mention: DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $9,300 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook against Detroit’s run defense. No need to overthink it, you likely must eat the chalk on this one in NFL DFS cash games. He’s pricey and I honestly don’t think he’s a “must-play” as long as the rest of your lineup is sexy.
James Conner ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – The Cowboys are absolute trash as a whole and even worse against opposing running backs (29th in run defense DVOA). Pair that with the Steelers being a 14.5-point favorite and that should equal a ton of James Conner production in Week 9. The only concern here is potential blowout but Conner should be a lock for 3x value no matter how this game unfolds.
Chase Edmonds ($6,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel. Lock him in against the worst run defense in the NFL. Kenyan Drake is out, it’s wheels up for Chase Edmonds at home. He will 100% be in my cash game lineup.
DeeJay Dallas ($5,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – Carlos Hyde is out. Chris Carson is out. There’s really no one outside of a banged up Travis Homer who is going to compete with Dallas for the Seahawks’ backfield snaps. I don’t expect a ton out of DeeJay Dallas, but the savings open up a lot for your NFL DFS cash game lineup against Buffalo’s 24th ranked run defense (DVOA).

I look at it this way, we’re getting extremely cheap exposure to the 2nd best offense on this slate in the highest total game on this slate. DeeJay Dallas should have no problems getting to 14-15 fantasy points.

UPDATE: Love Justin Jackson in cash

Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jackson, David Johnson, JK Dobbins

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – The target share is just so elite with Herbert under center and the matchup against the Raiders and Lamarcus Joyner is arguably more elite. 25 targets over the past two games!
Tyler Lockett ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – Our weekly “pick on Taron Johnson” write-up just happens to be Tyler Lockett. Yes, he disappointed a bit last week but Lockett will have a big game on the road here in Buffalo. Taron Johnson is one of the worst cover slot-cornerbacks in the NFL and Lockett is one of the best overall slot receivers in football. Let’s go.
Stefon Diggs ($7,400 DK / $7,600 FD) – On the other side of Tyler Lockett is my favorite route runner in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. You shouldn’t need me to say a whole lot about Stefon Diggs in this matchup against the Seahawks. He’s in line for ~7 catches for 90 yards. If this game stays up-paced, that’s going to be his floor. I don’t care what the coverage scheme is against Diggs, if Allen is halfway competent, Diggs is in for a huge day.
Julio Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,200 FD) – I’m under the impression that Calvin Ridley is OUT. If so, Julio Jones is going to be one busy man on Sunday against a Broncos’ defense that will be without their top cornerback, AJ Bouye.
Marvin Jones ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – No Golladay this week equals Marvin Jones lock button against Minnesota’s poor excuse for a secondary. It’s that simple.
Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – I know Tim Patrick was out last week and that clearly opened up a lot for Jerry Jeudy, but he’s clearly earning more trust and target share with Drew Lock. Against this Atlanta secondary (who we pick on weekly) in the dome, Jeudy’s route running should be on display. He’s way too cheap and offers a nice bit of salary relief for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

UPDATE: Sterling Shepard added to cash WR pool

Honorable Mention: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There’s no one more consistent at the tight-end position than Kelce. If you can afford him, you play him.
Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Waller was a bit of a let down last week in the wild weather of Cleveland, but he should be in a prime spot in a shootout against the Chargers with a pre-match total sitting at 52 points. Outside of Kelce, no one has as high of a team target share than Waller.
Noah Fant ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – The Falcons’ secondary gets torched by any sort of pass catcher. Fant is due for a big breakout game in 2020 and that may come in Week 9 if this game can keep a solid pace. Fant looks to be the chalkiest tight end on this slate so if you want to chase that in cash games, I won’t talk you off of it.
Evan Engram ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – The air yards have been through the roof lately with Engram and the targets obviously are climbing up as well (19 combined targets over the past two weeks). I absolutely hate the pace that we’ll likely see in this game, but at this price, Engram is in play.
Hayden Hurst ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) – If Ridley misses this game, that should be a decent bump up to one of my favorite tight ends in the NFL (who has seen his target share raise consistently over the past few weeks). If this game has a high pace like I think it will, let’s ride Hayden Hurst.

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Football Team
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Drew Lock
RB: DeeJay Dallas
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Jerry Jeudy
WR: Marvin Jones
TE: Hayden Hurst
FLEX: Chase Edmonds
DST: Washington

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ Week 7 AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	SportsBook	Line	Unit Risk
Tampa Bay -4	DraftKings	-110	0.7
DAL/WAS O45	DraftKings	-109	1.5
Marques Valdez-Scantling O42.5 Yds	FanDuel	-110	1.2
Marvin Jones O44.5 Rec Yds Rec yds	FD	-110	1
Jerick Mckinnon O52.5 Rush Yds	FD	-110	0.75
James Connor O63.5 Rush Yds	DK	-134	0.8
Mike Evans O51.5 Rec Yds	FD	-110	0.5
Dalton Schultz O27.5 Rec Yds	DK	-125	0.42
AJ Green O50.5 Rec Yds	FD	-110	0.4
David Johnson U65.5 Rush Yds	FD	-110	0.8
DJ Chark O53.5 Rec Yds	FD	-110	0.6
Marvin JOnes Rec O3.5	FD	118	1.5
Stefon Diggs O6.5 Rec	FD	124	1
Cam Newton O215.5 P Yards	DK	108	0.8
Gardner Minshew O253.5 p Yards	FD	-110	0.5
Matt Ryan U310.5 P Yards	DK	-112	0.8
Kyle Allen U259.5 P Yards	DK	-118	0.9

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 7

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We absolutely smashed NFL DFS GPP lineups last week and should do so again in Week 7. Thank you all again for the kind words on the huge week last week! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

*Obviously, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are the popular QBs on this slate. Get exposure to them and feel free to use them in your main NFL DFS GPP lineups if that’s what you prefer. Here are some other QBs that I have a lot of interest in…

Josh Allen – Usually, I would be heavily against using a quarterback as double-digit favorite, but the Bills are going to come out playing fast and step on the throat early in this game. I’m always interested in a ~5% owned Josh Allen.

John Brown is out, so simply stack him with Stefon Diggs.
Matt Stafford – I simply have no idea how Stafford’s ownership projections are so low (less than 5%). This is the absolute nuts matchup for opposing quarterbacks and this game offers no defense whatsoever. Whatever defense their is in Atlanta is geared towards stopping the run. It’s going to shoot out and you’ll want a piece of it.

Potential Stack(s):
Golladay/Jones
Golladay/Hockenson
Golladay/Swift

Potential Game Stack(s):
Golladay/M. Jones /Julio/Ridley
Golladay/M. Jones /Julio/Gurley
Golladay/Hockenson/Julio/Ridley
ETC… (so many combinations you can play around with)
Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes grades out as the third best QB in the AETY Model this week and no one is going to play him. Keep an eye on the weather in Denver as it currently looks gross. If it clears up a bit, I’ll have Mahomes simply because he will be un-owned.

Weather is absolutely brutal. Fading.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt – All in on Kareem Hunt this week. I love Kamara a ton as well (as everyone does), so I’m trying to pair these two together as much as possible WITHOUT using Gio Bernard as the third RB. Everyone and their mother will be using that trio together.
Ezekiel Elliott – Zeke around 5% ownership? I don’t love him this week, but the model still thinks there’s a lot of upside with Elliott this week in what should be a surprisingly up-paced game.
Ronald Jones – I don’t know why people aren’t rostering RoJo AGAIN this week. He was my second highest-owned running back last week and is likely to be in the top-three again this week. Tampa runs the ball so well and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. RoJo is going for 20+ yet again in Week 7.
Jerick McKinnon – Another team that is extremely efficient running the football is Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. The Patriots have been rather suspect against the run this season (they’re still a good run defense) but I trust this outside-zone scheme to pay control the pace against New England.

With no Mostert and a questionable tag on Jeff Wilson, McKinnon should be in for a large workload at a very reasonable price.
Antonio Gibson – While everyone goes to pay down for Gio Bernard, I’ll do everything in my power to move up to Gibson. This is strictly to get off of Gio Bernard in addition to me being in love with Gibson this week for NFL DFS GPP lineups. Dallas is absolutely awful at defending the run (29th in run defense DVOA).

Honorable Mention: Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, Josh Kelley (big bump up is Justin Jackson is out), James Conner, La’mical Perine

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay – All in on Kenny G this week against Atlanta.
Stefon Diggs – Pair em’ up with Josh Allen or run him solo as a pivot off of the chalky top-priced wideouts. No one in this Jets’ secondary can handle Diggs and his elite route running.
Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley – This game is going to shootout. Get exposure to it!
Odell Beckham – I always play Odell Beckham when he’s going completely under the radar. At only $6.1K, I will have a lot of Beckham in my Joe Burrow/Bengals stacks. Feel free to use Hunt/Beckham on the other side. I love this game’s ability to shootout at low ownership. LeShaun Sims in coverage may be one of the worst cover corners in the NFL.
DJ Moore – I have so much Kamara and want to run it back with someone from Carolina. I was on the fence between Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, but have officially decided it will be DJ Moore for me. Anderson is out of my player pool and I hope that doesn’t kill me.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – I will also include a speedy wideout against Vernon Hargreaves. MVS is consistently racking up a ton of air-yards and he is absolutely primed up for a blowup game. I’m quite confident this is the week.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, AJ Green, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Damiere Byrd, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Hunter Henry – The AETY Model has Henry projected for 6.02 catches which just just barely behind Travis Kelce. His price is way too low this weekend.
Noah Fant – Fant is probably my favorite GPP tight end this weekend as no one is going to play him. He is by far the most talented pass catcher that is healthy for Denver in a game where they’re going to be chasing points right from the get-go. He should have a field day against the weak part of the Chiefs’ defense (their linebacking core).
Dalton Schultz – No idea why he’s $3,900 on DraftKings. I don’t expect a lot of defense to be played in Washington on Sunday and Schultz/Gibson or Schultz/McLaurin make for perfect salary relief, mini-stacks.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Harrison Bryant, Hayden Hurst, Darren Fells

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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