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Stix Picks: Week 6 NFL DFS GPP

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 6 NFL DFS GPP slate after a HUGE Week 5 from Win Daily Sports and our members! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

– Chiefs / Washington
– Bengals / Lions
– Cowboys / Patriots
– Chargers / Ravens
– Texans / Colts

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes / Taylor Heinicke

As you see above, I’m all in on this matchup with a 54-point total and a 32nd ranked overall defense (in terms of DVOA) against the 28th ranked overall defense (in terms of DVOA). We talked a bit about “predictable stack-ability” last week and that’s exactly what this game offers (in addition to zero defense). Like usual, I do not care what ownership on this game comes in at, I’ll get different elsewhere.

If you want Mahomes, you know who to stack him with (Hill, Kelce, and Hardman). If you want the savings Heinicke offers, you also know who to stack him with (McLaurin, Seals-Jones, or even Adam Humphries). Don’t overthink this slate, your lineup should have exposure to this game in some way, shape, or form.

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert at a 5% ownership projection? Sign me up. I do think this game will be a bit slower in pace than KC/WAS, but that shouldn’t scare us away from playing one of the best QBs in the NFL in Justin Herbert. The AETY Model predicts Herbert and the Chargers to lead this slate in passing attempts and that alone has me interested in Herbert and the Chargers. The more pass attempts a QB has, the higher his ceiling in fantasy football, make sense? Let’s ride.

Like Mahomes/Heinicke, you know who to stack him with!

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, Carson Wentz

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt

Hunt will likely be 50-55% owned in all contests (if not higher in cash) while Nick Chubb sits this one out against the Arizona Cardinals. See the Cash Game Checkdown for more thoughts on Kareem Hunt, but all in all, I’ll be well over the field with the freesquare Hunt offers us in our NFL DFS GPP lineups.

On FanDuel, I prefer Mixon at a cheaper price tag, and on DraftKings, if you’d like to fade Hunt, the preferred pivots are directly below.

Antonio Gibson

I would have guessed Gibson would come in around 20% in ownership projections but for some reason, the field is not that interested in Gibson (5-8% ownership estimate). The main theme of this article is to get exposure to this game against the Chiefs and what better way than the lead running back who poses the highest touchdown equity on the Washington offense? The Chiefs rank dead-last against opposing running backs.

Joe Mixon

I’ll keep this one brief, the Lions defense is dreadful in all formats and there’s NO ONE behind Joe Mixon on the depth chart to take snaps away from him (Samaje Perine on the COVID-19 list). Mixon is one of the few (if not the only) running backs on this slate who can realistically see 30 or more touches… Volume is KING!

Honorable Mention: Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams, Khalil Herbert, D’Andre Swift

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen

See Cash Game Checkdown for thoughts on Keenan Allen. He’s likely my highest owned wide receiver in Week 6.

Ja’Maar Chase

The Detroit Lions rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and literally do not have a pro-caliber cornerback healthy for this matchup. What more does the DFS community need to see from Ja’Maar Chase before he’s a staple at $7,000 (or more) in salary and 15% owned?

Tyreek Hill / Mecole Hardman / Terry McLaurin

Exposure to the Chiefs / Washington game! If you cannot afford Tyreek Hill, I absolutely adore this matchup for the young, Georgia standout, Mecole Hardman. The target share continues to rise and the 50-plus percent slot-rate should offer plenty of insurance that Josh Gordon will not be taking snaps away from Mecole Hardman. On the other side, there’s not much to say about Terry McLaurin… he’s a star with a ridiculous expected target share, in a shootout against a horrible pass defense.

Michael Pittman / Brandin Cooks

Both of these guys are the top wide receivers (by a wide-margin) on their respective teams. We pick on the Colts’ secondary every week and this matchup is pristine for Michael Pittman. This is one of the “mini-stacks” I’ll be using often to get some exposure to both sides of the ball in what could be a sneaky, but gross shootout.

Adam Humphries

This is absolutely gross, but every damn optimizer in the world is pushing out nothing but Travis Kelce and Ricky Seals-Jones, double tight-end lineups. Yes, Seals-Jones is in a nice spot, but this dude has left much to be desired throughout his five year NFL career. I understand that the optimizers spit this double tight-end duo out for value, but with no Curtis Samuel this week, Adam Humphries will be my pivot away from the Seals-Jones chalk.

My KC/WAS lineup may not be that different than those from an optimizer, but if you can fit three stud running backs in your lineup with your KC/WAS stack, you’re already much different than the field (as they’ll be using their flex spot for one of the tight-ends). If a 1% owned Humphries can get to 10+ points, I like my odds to beat the Kelce/Seals-Jones optimized lineups in a NFL DFS GPP contest.

Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Courtland Sutton

Tight Ends

*I’ll be extremely heavy on Travis Kelce. Again, I do not care about the ownership. In lineups I do not have Kelce, here’s who I would prioritize…

Darren Waller

Waller is likely to go completely un-rostered on this Week 6 NFL DFS slate. I personally will be trying my best to move up to Kelce, but with how stingy the Denver secondary is to opposing wide receivers, this could sort out to be a perfect pass-funnel up the middle to Darren Waller. If you want to make yourself a little afternoon 5% owned mini-stack, Waller and Sutton or Waller and Javonte Williams can certainly provide difference-making upside in larger field GPP contests.

T.J. Hockenson

As much as I love the Bengals offense this week, in theory, I should be very interested in a Detroit Lions run-back in those lineups. In many of my efforts to make a Cincinnati/Detroit game-stack, I’m about $1,000 short in salary to afford D’Andre Swift. This leads me to a 5% projected ownership, T.J. Hockenson. Despite the steam Amon-Ra St. Brown seems to be generating, T.J. Hockenson is still the alpha in this passing attack. This game has shootout potential and T.J. Hockenson has slate-breaking upside in those types of gamescripts.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 6 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Running hot, baby! A huge output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games and I believe the best week of my NFL DFS career. We absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots and shoutout to our boy, Pickett’s Picks for a massive takedown on the MNF slate! Congratulations, buddy! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Lamar Jackson (35%), Darrell Henderson Jr. (40%), Darrel Williams (25%), Jonathan Taylor (25%), Khalil Herbert (25%), Austin Ekeler (20%), Davante Adams (30%), Tee Higgins (25%), Jakobi Meyers (25%), Terry McLaurin (20%), Mark Andrews (25%), Ricky Seals-Jones (20%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD)

It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 29th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 54 points (the highest on the slate). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns and a little bit more rushing equity than usual with no Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start.

Lamar Jackson ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD)

Honestly, I’m not incredibly high on Lamar Jackson after his career game on Monday night, but if he’s going to be 30-40% owned in cash games, it’s hard not to lock-button Lamar Jackson in a 52-point total game against the Chargers. The model loves Lamar Jackson, grading him over a 3.2x value (in comparison to his salary) and I will not argue with you if Jackson is your QB of choice in your cash games. My personal feeling is that this is more of a slower-paced, running game-plan for Baltimore as the Chargers’ bleed production to opposing rushing attacks (worst in the NFL at ~5.6 yards per carry allowed).

Taylor Heinicke ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

If you prefer the salary-relief, QB route, look no further than Taylor Heinicke. We spoke about the crazy-high total in this game when discussing Mahomes and the same situation applies to Mr. Heinicke, except the matchup is even better than Patrick Mahomes’ as the Chiefs’ grade 31st in pass-defense DVOA. As much as I don’t really trust Taylor Heinicke (which is a huge factor in a cash game lineup), this Kansas City defense is non-existent and shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Washington passing attack. Like Mahomes, Heinicke also offers a bit of a higher floor with his legs.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)

Ekeler is riding one helluva hot streak and I don’t see that stopping this weekend against Baltimore who’s given up an average of six receptions per game to opposing running backs. We don’t expect Ekeler to smash via the run, but his dual-threat ability to fill up the fantasy box scores make him 100% cash viable in this high-totaled matchup against the Ravens.

Jonathan Taylor ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

We always want to use Vegas as a guideline when building our NFL DFS lineups and there’s no better positive gamescript for a running back than being a double-digit, home favorite. Well, that narrative surrounds our boy, Jonathan Taylor this week as they host the Houston Texans and their 30th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA). If you’re not locking in Michael Pittman, roll with Jonathan Taylor who currently has a 100+ all-purpose yard player prop in addition to (-200) odds to score a touchdown. There’s not many safer plays at the running back position than Jonathan Taylor, despite all-pro guard, Quenton Nelson on IR.

Kareem Hunt ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

No Nick Chubb, all systems go for Kareem Hunt who should be primed up for another blow-up performance against Arizona’s run defense giving up over 5.4 yards per carry to opposing backs. Lock him in!

Khalil Herbert ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD)

With Damien Williams on the COVID-19 list, it’s go-time for rookie running back, Khalil Herbert. We’ll likely all need the value at one of the running back positions and it’s very likely 50% of the NFL DFS cash game field locks in Herbert… let’s do the same.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Darrell Henderson Jr., Chubba Hubbard, Darrel Williams, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Davante Adams, if you can afford him, you play him. Ridiculous pricing over at FanDuel, lol.

DJ Moore ($7,300 DK / $7,600 FD)

Like Adams, DJ Moore has a borderline slate-leading, 30% expected target share in the AETY Model projections. We love picking on this Minnesota secondary on a weekly basis and it’s yet to let us down (outside of Baker Mayfield under-throwing Odell Beckham multiple times when we locked him in a couple weeks ago) as we always want to attack any wideout who sees Bashaud Breeland 40% of the time, or more, in coverage. Robby Anderson is also in a nice spot here but I cannot recommend playing him in cash, whatsoever.

Terry McLaurin ($7,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

Get exposure this this Kansas City / Washington game! The AETY Model currently grades Terry McLaurin as the 6th overall value play at the wide receiver position and assuming the non-participant in Friday’s practice was strictly precautionary, it’s wheels up for McLaurin against this sieve of a Kansas City secondary.

Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,100 FD)

We discussed the high-total in this matchup in the Ekeler write-up and it has me licking my chops to go back to the well with Keenan Allen in a matchup against Baltimore slot-cornerback, Tavon Young. Young has been brutal in coverage thus far through 2021 and has his toughest matchup to date here against Keenan Allen. It looks like Mike Williams is truly questionable for this matchup and Allen would be a cash game staple for me if he’s ruled out, but having said that, I’m 100% interested in Keenan Allen even if Mike Williams is a go. This matchup is pristine and we’re due for a Keenan Allen breakout game in 2021. In addition, he also grades out as the #1 value at the wide receiver position on the AETY Model (with Mike Williams projected as ACTIVE).

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,550 DK / $5,800 FD)

Simply way too cheap for a clear-cut, WR1 against a Houston Texans pass-defense that grades 30th in DVOA. If you’re not playing Jonathan Taylor, load up Michael Pittman and get exposure to this Colts’ offense who grades 4th on the slate in total offense equity on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, exclusive to Win Daily Sports.

Jakobi Meyers ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

Another nice value would be the Patriots’ wideout, Jakobi Meyers. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of his but the volume in the passing attack is hard to ignore and this matchup against Dallas should bode well for the Patriots in a “catch-up” style gamescript. I prefer Pittman here at this price, but Meyers’ is 100% in play for cash games, but I would only recommend him on DraftKings in a full-point PPR format.

Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Brandin Cooks, Tee Higgins, Mecole Hardman

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings with the amount of value that has opened up on this slate via injuries. If you can afford Travis Kelce, you lock him in and expect a massive “get-right” game here against the Washington Football Team and their majority-zone defense.

Mark Andrews ($5,200 DK / $6,300 FD)

What a game for Mark Andrews and the Ravens’ passing attack on Monday Night! Surprise to no one, the recency bias could not be higher for Mark Andrews and for good reason, the DFS sites butchered his price-point. As much as the GPP mentality in me says to fade Andrews here, the Chargers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends. This matchup is sexy and the high total is sexy. I’m fine if you want to eat the chalk here with Andrews in both cash games and GPP builds.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000 DK / $5,000 FD)

Like the Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs bleed production to opposing tight ends (27th in TE pass defense DVOA). As much as I hate “punt” tight-ends (also pat on my back for the Dan Arnold call last week, hehe), this is an excellent spot for Seals-Jones in a projected shootout against the Chiefs. Seals-Jones may not get a ton of volume, but he tied for first in red-zone targets in Week 5 and should offer plenty of red-zone upside as they go back and forth with Kansas City’s offense all Sunday long.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts

Cincinnati Bengals

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The CJ Cup Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to the C J Cup Final Ownership Projections, or the golfers had such a blast (wink wink DJ) in Vegas they decided to stay another week. The C J Cup will be played at a Tom Fazio designed course that is very pricey. This is an invite field with only 78 golfers so there will be no cut.

When I say pricey I mean 200,000 to join the club, which does not include greens fees, carts or caddies. They asked Joel, aka DraftmasterFlex to join, he said give me till Saturday evening. This was after his NCAA football show on Friday night courtesy of Win Daily Sports. On Saturday night they said will you honor us by joining ? He allegedly said, “bwa, hahaha! How much for the entire course and club?” (he must have had a really good Saturday). His NCAA football podcast is on Friday night and he had a monster jump in views, I suppose everyone likes making money in football and golf. .

Speaking of money, Sia had a good Sunday in the NFL and has been flat out killing it with his Secret Weapon play, (more on that below) and last night something happened I’m still trying to figure out. Joel saw a reflection of a football game in one of Sia’s sports pictures so he asked about it. Sia told him he had action on the Tuesday night college game, at the same time he answered a question from coach, and started listing players he liked, talk about multi tasking, what I can’t figure out is when all this was thrown at Sia, his hair started shining and getting thicker, by the end of the show it was radiant. Remember the Spike Lee / Michael Jordan commercial where he says, “it’s gotta be the shoes ? With Sia, its gotta be the hair. I once saw a lock of Elvis Presley’s hair go for 160K, and Sia makes way better golf picks than Elvis. Look for trophy hunters to hit up Sia’s barber real soon.

Spencer Aguilar has joined our Win Daily Family and is already producing money winning models for golf. His breakdown of the tourneys are unparalleled in the industry. Know you are getting the best of the best with Spencer.

Sia, Spencer, Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick work extremely hard to bring you the intel to make good decisions. Winning big GPP’s, Cash games, 50/50s s is why we are here with some tools to help you reach your goals. Let’s take a look at your C J Cup Final Ownership:

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Schauffele, Xander	23.7	10600
Morikawa, Collin	23.3	10800
Vegas, Jhonattan	22.7	6300
Hovland, Viktor	20.2	9900
Oosthuizen, Louis	19.5	9300
McNealy, Maverick	19.3	7300
Thomas, Justin	19.1	11100
Gooch, Talor	18.6	7200
Smith, Cameron	15.8	9200
McIlroy, Rory	15.7	10100
Johnson, Dustin	15.2	11300
Wise, Aaron	14.9	7400
Henley, Russell	14.3	7100
Leishman, Marc	13.9	8600
Scheffler, Scottie	13.8	9000
Casey, Paul	13.4	8200
Noren, Alex	13.1	7100
Tringale, Cameron	12.2	7000
Simpson, Webb	11.2	8700
Burns, Sam	11.1	9800
Koepka, Brooks	10.9	9700
Garcia, Sergio	10.9	7500
Im, Sungjae	10.3	9500
Varner III, Harold	10.1	7300
Finau, Tony	10.0	9600
Niemann, Joaquin	9.9	7400
Reed, Patrick	9.1	8000
Spieth, Jordan	8.6	10300
Hoffman, Charley	8.6	7200
Homa, Max	8.3	7700
Rose, Justin	8.1	7900
Ancer, Abraham	7.9	9100
Hatton, Tyrrell	7.6	8400
Matsuyama, Hideki	7.4	9400
English, Harris	7.4	8900
Lowry, Shane	7.2	8300
Kokrak, Jason	7.2	8500
Scott,Adam	7.1	8100
Davis, Cameron	7.1	6400
Day, Jason	6.8	7000
Lee, KH	6.6	6200
Kim, Si Woo	6.4	7600
Harman, Brian	6.2	6600
Van Rooyen, Erik	5.9	6700
Ortiz, Carlos	5.8	6200
Na, Kevin	5.4	7800
Streelman, Kevin	4.9	6800
Bradley, Keegan	4.6	6900
Poulter, Ian	4.6	6900
Hoge, Tom	4.1	6300
Kizzire, Patton	3.9	6600
Fleetwood, Tommy	3.7	8800
Grillo, Emiliano	3.7	6700
Kirk, Chris	3.5	6400
Swafford, Hudson	3.3	6000
Fowler, Rickie	3.2	6400
Grace, Branden	3.1	6500
Schwartzel, Charl	2.7	6100
Woodland, Gary	2.6	6800
Cink, Stewart	2.6	6500
Glover, Lucas	2.5	6000
Munoz, Sebastian	2.4	6100
Hughes, Mackenzie	2.3	6100
Kisner, Kevin	2.0	6200
Jones, Matt	1.8	6300
Higgs, Harry	1.8	6100
Hojgaard, Rasmus	1.8	6100
An, B	1.7	6300
Mitchell, Keith	1.3	6200
Kang, Sung	1.3	6100
Streb, Robert	1.0	6100
Kim, Joohyung	0.9	6100
Kim, Hanbyeol	0.8	6000
Kim, Seonghyeon	0.6	6000
Seo, Yosep	0.6	6000
Lee, Jaekyeong	0.5	6000
Kim, Minkyu	0.5	6000
Shin, Sanghun	0.4	6000

These final ownership figures for The C J Cup are accurate as of 17:37 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the C J Cup

Top Tier: Xander, DJ

Mid Tier: Smith, Finau, Oosti

Low Tier: Niemann, Reed, Gooch

Out in Left Play: Carlos Ortiz

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the The C J Cup Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Spencer, ,Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The C J Cup will not be be posted tonight in Discord due to it being a no cut event. Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer has a great new article out and is joining us in Discord so welcome Spencer and Tee Off Sports ! Antonio will have his BBB play and my frisky risky biscuit play will come out tonight in Discord along with any late breaking intel to help you break your contest slate.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 5 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 5 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

– Giants / Cowboys
– Titans / Jaguars
– 49ers / Cardinals
– Packers / Bengals

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD)

I was a bit surprised when the AETY Model spit out the Titans/Jaguars game as one of it’s favorites in terms of “stack-ability” but when you look at the metrics, this game should offer little-to-none on the defensive side of things… leading to a lot of potential for points. The Titans’ defense grades 25th in pass-defense DVOA while Jacksonville is dead last (32nd). Despite Tennessee struggling to stop the run, and Jacksonville really toning down their fast-paced offense last week against Cincinnati, the AETY Model projects Lawrence for over 35 pass attempts. At these price-tags, I’m going to take a shot on a 2% owned, Trevor Lawrence in what should be one of the sneakier (but ugly) shootouts on the slate.

You want to have some salary relief? Stack up Lawrence, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and run it back with Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.

Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD)

When looking at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, the Dallas Cowboys grade out as the number one offense overall for Week 5 NFL DFS. In addition, Dak Prescott equates a 3.6x value on this crazy cheap price-tag on DraftKings. He’s going to be popular, but like last week when we were all in on Jalen Hurts, I don’t really see a need to get much different at the Quarterback position while Prescott is at home against the 24th ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA. You know who to stack him up with!

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD)

The Giants’ run defense is arguably as bad (if not worse) than their pass defense and again, I want exposure to this Cowboys offense as they are atop of the Team Totals Tool tab on Win Daily Sports. He’s currently (-150) to score a touchdown and right at 100 all-purpose yards at the Sportsbooks… the knee injury should be nothing to scare you off of Elliott at sub-10% ownership in an excellent matchup with the highest total on the slate.

The Cowboys offense has been incredibly efficient (5th in pass offense DVOA, 1st in run offense DVOA) so I’m not totally against the idea of using Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott together despite the somewhat negative correlation in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Nick Chubb ($6,700 DK / $7,500 FD)

Welcome back to the GPP article, Mr. Nick Chubb! If you’ve noticed a theme, we’re always looking to attack the Chargers’ on the ground as they’re giving up a ridiculous 5.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers. At 5% ownership, I absolutely love the idea of rolling with Nick Chubb against this Chargers run defense that bleeds points to opposing running backs. His props at the Sportsbooks are right there with Ezekiel Elliott and the matchup is better than Elliott’s… If I trust the AETY Model, I trust Nick Chubb here to blow up the slate at extremely low ownership.

Alexander Mattison ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

If Dalvin Cook is ruled out Sunday morning, Alexander Mattison will be a stone-cold lock in all of my lineups. Simple as that, I don’t care what his ownership turns out to be.

Aaron Jones ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)

As much as I love Davante Adams (likely to be 20% owned in Week 5 NFL DFS) in a bounce back spot against the Bengals’ secondary, the AETY Model has a lot of love for Aaron Jones. If you’ve been with Win Daily for the last couple of years, you know that when the AETY Model says to play Aaron Jones, you play Aaron Jones. Like Chubb, Aaron Jones is likely to come in around 5% in ownership giving us a lot of differentiation in our NFL DFS GPP builds.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)

Another sneaky stack that grades out incredibly well for me this week is Kirk Cousins and his number one wideout, Justin Jefferson. The Detroit Lions secondary is absolutely demolished with injury and grades 30th in pass defense DVOA. Justin Jefferson is one of the elite route runners in the NFL and should have an absolute field day at home in the dome against the Lions. The AETY Model projects Justin Jefferson for right around 90 receiving yards and 7 receptions, grading him as the #2 overall wide receiver on this slate behind Davante Adams.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,600 DK / $7,500 FD)

No idea what FanDuel was doing here with D-Hop’s pricing, lol. Hopkins is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and I want to get exposure to this division game with a total right around 50 points. D-Hop will see a lot of Emmanuel Moseley in coverage and that is a matchup I’m always interested in attacking.

Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

With no Jaire Alexander, the Packers’ defense is honestly atrocious grading 20th in pass defense DVOA (that was with Alexander healthy) and 27th in run defense DVOA. With Joe Mixon banged up and highly questionable to suit up, look for the Bengals to go back to their Zac Taylor roots in a more up-tempo, no-huddle passing attack. Chase should be price in the low-to-mid $6K range on DraftKings so let’s take advantage of the savings while they’re available.

Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD)

Don’t get me wrong, I love Laviska Shenault again this week (AETY Model’s #1 wide receiver value), but let’s not forget about the slate-breaking upside in Marvin Jones. Jones’ enters this week leading the Jaguars with a 23% target share and a ridiculous 44% red-zone target share. Shenault is an excellent value overall but Marvin Jones is the player on this Jacksonville team that offers NFL DFS GPP winning upside, especially when he’s projected to be 2-5% owned.

AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that we’ll see AJ Brown unowned as he returns to the field in Week 5 as we expected earlier in our research this week, but again, I want exposure to the Titans/Jaguars game and AJ Brown is price at a nice discount on both sites. We know where the production is going to come from on both sides of the football:

– Derrick Henry
– AJ Brown
– Marvin Jones
– Laviska Shenault
– James Robinson

One of the issues I have with other game stacks and what not in DFS is guessing where the production is going to come from. That is a non-issue with this game. You know who the studs are, play them!

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Allen Robinson, Devonta Smith, DJ Moore, Henry Ruggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Curtis Samuel

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

*If you can afford Darren Waller, you play him. It looks like the majority of the field is going to go down to punt-priced, chalk. I don’t hate any of the chalk options this week, but the easiest way to differentiate in a positive way, it’s avoiding punt-play chalk tight-ends.

Mike Gesicki ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD)

We all know you cannot run the football against Tampa Bay and the Bucs are a 10-point favorite here giving the Dolphins the pass-happy gamescript as they play catch-up from the get-go. The Bucs grade 25th in DVOA against the tight-end and also give up a significant amount of fantasy points to slot receivers. Mike Gesicki happens to play both of those positions.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, Dallas Goedert, TJ Hockenson

4 years ago 0 comments

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The Shriners Children Open Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to the Shriners Childrens Open Final Ownership Projections, or the Guys with the Fuzzy Fez Hats having a pancake supper somewhere. This week we are in sin city for a tourney that has a surprisingly strong field.

I know a few guys at a sportsbook in Vegas where some of the players are staying. One of the clerks said when they asked the rookies if they were there for business or pleasure, they nervously said,” uh, oh, we’re here to play golf only.” Some of the more seasoned players when asked the same thing said, “a bit of both, everything stays in Vegas right?”

Speaking of sportsbooks, Monday evening I went in the NFL Discord Channel and suggested everyone take the under in the Raiders/Chargers game. I got hit back with “at least 63 points scored”, “over 66,” they could drop a 100″, etc. I have two old friends who are gamblers, they didn’t have a regular job and then gambling as a hobby, they were sportsbooks directors until the real men running Vegas were replaced with corporate Disney types. They both bought homes out in the Ridges in Vegas and one of them placed a 500,000 bet on the under Monday night and let me know. I knew a lot of guys were on the over so I didn’t broadcast the win, they may give me 3 or 4 games a year, have they ever lost ? Not in 22 years, that’s only as far back as my records show, anyway if you see a play from me in the NFL Discord, you can pretty much count on it. I asked them to give me some golf plays, and got, “are you nuts, that’s hard, you have to work all damn day all week instead of 2-3 hours a day for a couple of days a week.” Indeed you do. They will not know the thrill of a Friday cut sweat, or if you’re in play late Sunday evening and a single birdie moves you up 2000 dollars and a bogie drops you 1500, you will know you’re in the top 5 of a big GPP, and there is nothing like that feeling in the world. It doesn’t matter if its me or one of you, the feeling is the exact same. Just ask Joel, who does it so often his wife has to wake him up and go, “Joel, you just won another 20,000.” “Huh ? Wha ? ok honey . zzzzzzzzzzzz.” He does need his beauty sleep since his recent rise on media video has exploded.

Sia was going to bet everything on his first round leader, including his wardrobe of black sports shirts, everything except his hair, which is insured by Lloyds of London. I can pretty much guarantee his SW play will NOT be Harry Higgs. Last night on the show he rattled off 12 different players with a “H” in their name, all except Harry. I’m not saying Harry is out of shape, when Harry was walking up to the first tee at his last tourney, someone in the gallery allegedly remarked, “I bet he doesn’t know they tore down the bowling alley to build this golf course.”

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Simpson, Webb	24.4	10200
Scheffler, Scottie	23.7	9700
Ancer, Abraham	22.9	10400
Hovland, Viktor	22.3	10600
Matsuyama, Hideki	18.9	9500
Wolff, Mathew	18.4	8200
Pereira, Mito	18.2	7800
Niemann, Joaquin	17.8	8300
English, Harris	17.1	9300
Reed, Patrick	17.1	8600
Casey, Paul	16.7	8900
Conners, Corey	16.3	8800
Zalatoris,Will	15.9	10100
Im, Sungjae	15.4	9200
Kim, Si Woo	13.6	9000
McNealy, Maverick	13.3	7700
Oosthuizen, Louis	13.1	9900
Burns, Sam	12.1	10900
Koepka, Brooks	11.2	11100
Hoffman, Charley	10.2	8100
Harman, Brian	9.4	7600
Streelman, Kevin	8.3	7800
Tringale, Cameron	8.2	8500
Van Rooyen, Erik	7.5	8000
Wise, Aaron	7.4	7900
Gooch, Talor	7.3	7700
Poulter, Ian	7.1	7000
Leishman, Marc	7.1	7600
Kizzire, Patton	6.8	7500
Kokrak, Jason	6.7	8700
List, Luke	6.3	7200
Fowler, Rickie	6.2	7300
Moore, Ryan	5.8	7000
Scott,Adam	5.7	8400
Henley, Russell	5.6	7900
Sloan, Roger	5.6	6900
Higgo, Garrick	5.6	6900
Cink, Stewart	5.2	7100
Hadwin, Adam	5.2	6800
Piercy, Scott	4.9	6700
Norlander, Henrik	4.9	7000
Glover, Lucas	4.7	7000
Bramlett, Joseph	4.6	7200
Jaeger, Stephan	4.3	6800
Grillo, Emiliano	4.0	7400
Moore, Taylor	3.9	7300
Theegala, Sahith	3.6	7500
Ramey, Chad	3.6	6800
Reavie, Chez	3.5	7000
Munoz, Sebastian	3.3	7000
Power, Seamus	3.2	7400
Perez, Pat	3.1	7200
McCarthy, Denny	3.1	6700
Ortiz, Carlos	2.9	7400
Schenk, Adam	2.9	6800
Knox, Russell	2.8	6400
Palmer, Ryan	2.7	7500
Steele, Brendan	2.7	6600
Hoge, Tom	2.7	6400
Ghim, Doug	2.4	6900
Dahmen, Joel	2.4	7100
Watney, Nick	2.4	6600
Howell III, Charlie	2.3	6900
Davis, Cameron	2.2	7300
Higgs, Harry	2.2	6500
Kisner, Kevin	2.2	7400
Buckley, Hayden	2.1	6600
Molinari, Francesco	2.0	6900
Lebioda, Hank	1.9	6300
Young, Cameron	1.9	7000
Schwartzel, Charl	1.8	7300
Lee, KH	1.7	6700
Griffin, Lanto	1.7	6900
Frittelli, Dylan	1.7	6800
Mitchell, Keith	1.7	6600
Hojgaard, Rasmus	1.7	7100
Hahn, James	1.7	6400
Kucher, Matt	1.7	6600
Jones, Matt	1.6	6700
Snedeker, Brandt	1.6	6600
Hubbard, Mark	1.6	6100
Mullinax, Trey	1.6	6700
Redman, Doc	1.6	6400
Landry ,Andrew	1.6	6200
Swafford, Hudson	1.5	6500
Laird, Martin	1.4	7100
Rai, Aaron	1.4	6500
Svensson, Adam	1.4	6200
Stuard, Brian	1.4	6300
Ryder, Sam	1.4	6300
Hadley, Chesson	1.4	6500
Pendrith, Taylor	1.3	7100
Merritt, Troy	1.3	7100
Stallings, Scott	1.3	7200
Smalley, Alex	1.3	6200
Wallace, Matt	1.3	6300
Johnson, Zack	1.3	6700
Malnati, Peter	1.3	6500
Straka, Sepp	1.3	6200
Sabbatini, Rory	1.3	6500
Stanley, Kyle	1.2	6100
Putnam, Andrew	1.2	6200
Lahiri, Anirban	1.2	6200
Sigg, Greyson	1.2	6200
Poston, JT	1.2	6400
Long, Adam	1.2	6000
Willett, Danny	1.1	7700
Lashley, Nate	1.1	6400
NeSmith, Matthew	1.1	6700
Hagy, Brandon	1.0	6200
Reeves, Seth	0.9	6400
Riley, Davis	0.9	6300
McGirt, William	0.9	6100
Taylor, Nick	0.8	6300
Clark, Wyndham	0.8	6200
Streb, Robert	0.7	6100
Burgoon, Bronson	0.7	6400
Villegas, Camilo	0.7	6000
Walker, Jimmy	0.7	6300
Wu, Brandon	0.7	6000
Thompson, Michael	0.6	6300
Garnett, Brice	0.6	6000
McCumber, Tyler	0.6	6000
Herman, Jim	0.6	6100
Werenski, Richy	0.6	6100
McDowell, Graeme	0.6	6100
Kang, Sung	0.6	6100
Chappell, Kevin	0.5	6000
Tway, Kevin	0.4	6200
Haas, Bill	0.3	6000
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.3	6100
Thompson, Curtis	0.3	6000
Gay, Brian	0.3	6000
Spaun, JJ	0.2	6100
Yu, Chun-an	0.2	6100
Hall, Harry	0.2	6000
Wolfe, Jared	0.2	6000
Kraft, Kelly	0.2	6000
Blixt, Jonas	0.2	6000
Hodges, Lee	0.1	6700
Mueller, Jesse	0.1	6000
Westmoreland, Kyle	0.1	6000
Trainer, Martin	0.1	6100
Jeong, Jin	0.0	6000

These final ownership figures for The Shriners Childrens Open are accurate as of 18:17 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the Shriners Childrens Open Championship

Top Tier: Simpson, Hovland

Mid Tier: Kim, Tringale, Wolff

Low Tier: Theegala, List, Poulter

Out in Left Play: Hadwin

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

I have been a supporter of the Shriners for a few decades now. They have one of the most prestigious children’s burn centers in the world. State of the art care for pediatric severe burn cases and they never turn a child away for not having the funds to pay. Their pancakes suck but these are hard working guys volunteering to help kids get better. Support them if you have the means and just know they do really great work for kids.

Thank you again for reviewing the The Shriners Childrens Open Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia,Spencer, Patrick, Antonio and Isaiah to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The Shriners Childrens Open will be posted tonight in Discord. Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer has a great new article out and is joining us in Discord so welcome Spencer and Tee Off Sports ! Antonio will have his BBB play and my frisky risky biscuit play will come out tonight in Discord along with any late breaking intel to help you break your contest slate.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

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The Sanderson Farms Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to the Sanderson Farms Final Ownership Projections, this week we are in Jackson Mississippi for a tourney on a Donald Ross designed course with updates. Longer more accurate drives will be rewarded along with putting on this 7200 + yard course with light rough.

Sergio Garcia returns to defend his championship one week after a grueling and demanding Ryder Cup that saw the Americans totally overwhelm the Europeans. It will be interesting to see if Sergio defends his crown valiantly, or if his energy is sapped and he melts under the humid southern sun.

Watching the Ryder Cup was riveting and rewarding at the same time. I tend to stay out of politics, especially when 99% of the people dying of Covid in hospitals are unvaccinated, and an unbelievable segment of the population is depending on the expertise of Bubba the high school drop out vet tech who is selling horse de wormer at a surprising rate at your neighborhood vet clinic. Parasitic worms are in trouble, in the meantime 2000 people a day still die from Covid, the virus could care less what your political affiliation is. The reason I bring this up is that I saw 50,000 + fans all come together, all vaccinated, to cheer on an American team against their counterparts from across the pond. Roaring chants of USA ! USA ! permeated the course, and it just felt really good to watch Americans bond together to cheer on their American heroes who came through better than ever, beating their counterparts by the highest margin ever. Good for us, good for all Americans. Well done United States of America. Well done !!

Let’s take a look at your Sanderson Farms Final Ownership:

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Hoffman, Charley	24.3	9000
Pereira, Mito	23.9	9900
Zalatoris,Will	23.7	10800
Conners, Corey	20.6	10100
Im, Sungjae	20.4	10300
Burns, Sam	19.4	11000
Davis. Cameron	17.3	9100
Wise, Aaron	16.4	8300
Garcia, Sergio	14.8	10500
Tringale, Cameron	14.6	9400
Ortiz, Carlos	13.9	8600
Rodgers, Patrick	13.8	7600
Streelman, Kevin	12.4	8900
Pendrith, Taylor	12.1	7800
Bradley, Keegan	11.8	9700
Kizzire, Patton	11.7	8200
Varner III, Harold	11.6	9200
Ramey, Chad	11.2	7000
Power, Seamus	10.8	8800
Wolff, Mathew	10.7	8500
Kirk, Chris	9.2	7500
Munoz, Sebastian	9.1	9300
Grillo, Emiliano	8.9	8700
Stallings, Scott	8.8	7700
Reavie, Chez	8.6	7700
Kim, Si Woo	8.4	9500
Moore, Taylor	8.3	7100
Woodland, Gary	8.1	8400
Schenk, Adam	7.3	6700
List, Luke	7.2	7500
Clark, Wyndham	7.2	6400
Bramlett, Joseph	6.7	7900
Wallace, Matt	6.6	7100
Ghim, Doug	6.3	8000
Griffin, Lanto	6.3	7400
Lahiri, Anirban	6.1	6200
Dahmen, Joel	5.9	7400
Jaeger, Stephan	5.6	7000
Villegas, Camilo	5.6	6700
Hughes, Mackenzie	5.5	7600
Mitchell, Keith	5.1	7800
Pan, CT	4.9	8100
Lee, KH	4.8	7600
Rai, Aaron	4.8	7300
Snedeker, Brandt	4.7	7200
Straka, Sepp	4.5	7000
Svensson, Adam	4.4	7100
Johnson, Zack	4.4	7500
Sabbatini, Rory	4.4	6900
Poston, JT	4.2	6600
Piercy, Scott	3.9	7400
Glover, Lucas	3.8	7400
Burgoon, Bronson	3.8	7300
Herbert, Lucas	3.6	7300
Hadwin, Adam	3.6	7000
Hoge, Tom	3.6	7200
Van Der Walt, Dawie	3.6	6500
Redman, Doc	3.4	6500
Smalley, Alex	3.3	6400
Steele, Brendan	3.3	7100
Kitayama, Kurt	3.3	6300
Sigg, Greyson	3.2	6900
Malnati, Peter	3.1	6500
Hardy, Nick	3.0	6900
Schwab, Matthias	2.9	8000
Armour, Ryan	2.8	7300
McCarthy, Denny	2.8	6600
Todd, Brendon	2.7	7900
Norlander, Henrik	2.7	7200
Theegala, Sahith	2.6	6800
Augenstein, John	2.6	6700
Lipsky, David	2.4	7200
Taylor, Nick	2.3	7000
Stuard, Brian	2.3	6900
Swafford, Hudson	2.2	6900
Frittelli, Dylan	2.1	6600
Knox, Russell	2.1	6500
Moore, Ryan	2.1	6800
Whaley, Vincent	1.9	6800
Sloan, Roger	1.9	7000
Putnam, Andrew	1.9	6600
NeSmith, Matthew	1.9	6600
Tway, Kevin	1.8	6800
Buckley, Hayden	1.5	6400
Hagy, Brandon	1.4	6300
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	1.4	7100
Thompson, Michael	1.4	6400
Laird, Martin	1.3	6800
Werenski, Richy	1.3	6500
Hadley, Chesson	1.3	6600
Thompson, Davis	1.2	6100
Wu, Dylan	1.1	6200
Ryder, Sam	1.1	6700
Hodges, Lee	1.1	6200
Cook, Austin	1.1	6400
Chappell, Kevin	1.0	6100
McCumber, Tyler	0.9	6500
Riley, Davis	0.9	6000
Garnett, Brice	0.9	6700
Mullinax, Trey	0.9	6500
Lashley, Nate	0.9	6400
Long, Adam	0.9	6200
Hickok, Kramer	0.8	6300
Wu, Brandon	0.8	6200
Reeves, Seth	0.7	6300
Huh, John	0.7	6600
Tarren, Callum	0.7	6100
MccGreevy, Max	0.7	6100
Creel, Joshua	0.7	6200
Ogletree, Andy	0.7	6200
Streb, Robert	0.6	6900
Novak, Andrew	0.6	6000
Skinns, David	0.6	6100
Gutschewski, Scott	0.6	6000
Gligic, Michael	0.6	6200
Duncan, Tyler	0.6	6200
Barjon, Paul	0.6	6000
Kohles, Ben	0.6	6000
Young, Cameron	0.5	6100
Walker, Jimmy	0.5	6400
Kang, Sung	0.5	6500
Landry ,Andrew	0.5	6300
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.4	6100
Spaun, JJ	0.4	6000
Thompson, Curtis	0.4	6000
Drewitt, Brett	0.4	6000
Haas, Bill	0.3	6300
Van Pelt, Bo	0.3	6100
Kraft, Kelly	0.3	6000
Wolfe, Jared	0.3	6100
Watney, Nick	0.3	6300
McGirt, William	0.2	6000
Blixt, Jonas	0.2	6200
Cummins, Quade	0.2	6000
Gay, Brian	0.2	6000
Trolio, Cohen (a)	0.2	6000
Lopez-Chacarra, Eugenio (a)	0.1	6400
Gribble, Cody	0.1	6000
Saunders, Sam	0.1	6200
Reifers, Kyle	0.0	6000
Hirschman, Grant	0.0	6000
Sonnier, Greg	0.0	6100
Trainer, Martin	0.0	6000
Stadler, Kevin	0.0	6000

These final ownership figures for The Sanderson Farms are accurate as of 17:52 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the Sanderson farms Championship

Top Tier: Sungjae IM, Garcia

Mid Tier: Davis, Hoffman, Wise

Low Tier: Stallings, List

Out in Left Play: Schenk

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the The Sanderson Farms Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Patrick, Antonio and Isaiah to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The Sanderson Farms Championship will be posted tonight in Discord. Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer will now be contributing an article and joining us in Discord so welcome Spencer and Tee Off Sports ! Antonio will have his BBB play and my frisky risky biscuit play will come out tonight in Discord along with any late breaking intel to help you break your contest slate.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 3 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 3 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
– Chargers / Chiefs
– Seahawks / Vikings
– Bucs / Rams
– Falcons / Giants
– Colts / Titans

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

Well, well, well… Wilson is becoming a staple in this article and I’m here for it. Wilson AGAIN grades out as a top-two QB in the AETY Model just behind Kyler Murray (who is on another planet right now). As you saw last week and the week before that, this Seattle offense is E-F-F-I-C-I-E-N-T. Honestly, this may be the best matchup for Wilson and company against a banged-up, Vikings’ defense that just gave up 400 passing yards to Kyler Murray. Enjoy the fireworks for the third week in a row.

Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Much more affordable on FanDuel, but Mahomes falling under 12% in ownership should be crime. This game against a sub-par Chargers’ secondary (without Chris Harris) currently has a total of 55 points… that bodes well for fantasy points on both sides of this game. We don’t need to write more about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. You NEED exposure to this game and you know who to pair him with.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

Welcome back to the passing attack, Mr. Austin Ekeler. It was a strange Week 1 outing for Ekeler who was nursing a hamstring injury coming into the season, but we saw things go back to normal for a Joe Lombardi offense, as Ekeler saw nine targets in the passing attack in Week 2. Yes, he only had nine carries, but we don’t tout Ekeler for his rushing abilities, those are just icing on the cake.

This game is going to be a shoot-out and the Chargers will heavily rely on Ekeler as they likely play catchup from the get-go. He will be able to provide plenty of rushing/receiving upside this week against the Chiefs’ 32nd rank run defense (in terms of DVOA) who will also be without Frank Clark this week.

Jonathan Taylor ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

With or without Carson Wentz, I absolutely love this matchup against the Titans for a “get-right” spot for Jonathan Taylor. The combination of Frank Reich’s inside and outside running zone schemes should provide plenty of breakaway alleys for Jonathan Taylor against an undisciplined defensive line in Tennessee (that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA). He’s going to be sub-5% owned on DraftKings and offers a nice run-back to all of my AJ Brown and Julio Jones shares.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, Mike Davis, Javonte Williams

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

In my opinion, Metcalf is way too cheap on both sites, but dear lord is he a freesquare on FanDuel. I know, you’ve seen Metcalf in all of the GPP articles here thus far in 2021 and he’s let us down for the most part… but he’s going to blow up soon and this is a prime spot against an aging Patrick Peterson and one of the worst corners in the NFL, Bashaud Breeland. The Seahawks have yet to scheme a deep ball for DK Metcalf (Lockett currently has ~100 more air yards logged) and with the speed/size differential (and the dome), look for Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron to change that.

Tyler Lockett is also in another smash spot. All in all, we want some Seahawks shares yet again in Week 3.

Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

Please see the Cash Game Checkdown for my Week 3 love affair with Justin Jefferson. Love me a “mini-stack” of Metcalf and Jefferson for the afternoon hammer.

Robert Woods ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD)

Yes, Cooper Kupp killed me last week and yes, he’s likely to be 25% owned again in Week 3. I’m 100% okay if you want to go back to the well on Cooper Kupp, but Robert Woods is significantly cheaper with very similar player props. When in doubt, trust Vegas.

I’m taking the savings here and likely will be incredibly overweight on Robert Woods this week, as he too will have his fair share of Ross Cockrell in coverage against a banged-up Tampa secondary.

AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD)

Another criminally-low priced number one wide receiver… We’ve been picking on Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore, and the rest of this Colts’ secondary early on this year and I’ll be doing so again in Week 3. AJ Brown is primed up for a massive game sooner than later and I think we finally see him top 50 receiving yards in 2021 matchup (the AETY Model projects for over 80).

Brown currently sits 9th in the NFL in air yards with absolutely nothing to show for it. I’m not a huge air yards guy, but sometimes you just need to trust the data. Seattle made it a priority to hit AJ Brown with a purpose last week and it looked like he was a bit scared to run his normal crossing routes against that bruising, yet beatable secondary. The Colts will not punish him like Seattle did and this will be a breakout game for Mr. Brown.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Mecole Harman

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Absolute smash play for me on DraftKings at sub $5K. How did his price go down? The Giants secondary is rough outside of James Bradberry and he will have his hands full with Calvin Ridley. With Russell Gage OUT, Pitts’ expected target share takes a big jump upwards against a Giants’ defense that runs a lot of man-coverage. You simply cannot cover Kyle Pitts 1-on-1.

This is the breakout game for Kyle Pitts and I want you all to have some exposure to him in your NFL DFS GPP builds. He’s a perfect run-back with a chalky Saquon Barkley.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee, Jack Doyle, Jared Cook, Logan Thomas

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Solid output for our Week 2 NFL DFS Cash Games (despite a Cooper Kupp chalk-fade). That’s on me, there was very little reason to fade Kupp at that ownership number, I won’t let that happen again. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Running Back position this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Chris Carson (30%), Derrick Henry (25%), Chris Godwin (30%), Cooper Kupp (30%), Keenan Allen (30%), Mark Andrews (20%), Tyler Higbee (15%), Marvin Jones (30%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD)

Not much to say about Lamar Jackson going up against an awful Detroit defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 29th in run defense DVOA. Baltimore is atop of the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, so we know we want some exposure to them. There’s no reason not to use the guy who makes this offense go, in Lamar Jackson. In GPPs, there is some serious blowout concern here, but it’s all systems go for a Jackson-led cash build.

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

What more do you need to see from Wilson and this new offense under Shane Waldron? Russ is cooking and it won’t stop this week against a Minnesota secondary giving up over 290 passing yards per game and a total over 56 points.

Justin Fields ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

Well, it’s time for Justin Fields to make his starting debut for the Chicago Bears and I for one, cannot be more excited. I am not expecting a massive coming out party or that he will lead this Bears’ unit to a NFC North championship, but for fantasy purposes, Fields is going to be fun to watch.

The AETY Model projects Fields for over 230 yards passing and 40 yards rushing. With adding a conservative red-zone rushing share, Fields would be a lock for 2.5x value as is. Add in a conservative passing touchdown share and Fields skyrockets to over a 4x value on DraftKings and 3x value on FanDuel. By no means is he “safe”, but at this price, he allows us to jam high-floor, high-upside studs to build a strong, NFL DFS cash game lineup. I’m likely to bite the bullet here and just pray the Bears’ offensive line can keep him upright for four quarters.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert (LOVE HIM IF YOUR BUILD ALLOWS)

Running Backs

*UPDATE: Alexander Mattison is now in play with Dalvin Cook doubtful

Chris Carson ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

If I am not rolling with Russ, I want to do everything I can to go back to Chris Carson, who’s going to be incredibly popular this week against Minnesota in a game with a total in the upper 50’s! We don’t need him to be incredibly efficient in this gamescript, we just need the guaranteed red-zone work (as we saw last week) for Carson to hit value. I’m fine with you eating the chalk here in cash against a Vikings’ defense giving up over 125 rushing yards per game.

Saquon Barkley ($6,400 DK / $6,000 FD)

We saw a MASSIVE uptick in Saquon Barkley’s snap share from Week 1 (~47%) to Week 2 (~84%). Barkley is back in the three-down, feature back role and takes on a Dean Pees’ blitz heavy offense that is currently being torched by opposing backs and ranks 27th in run defense DVOA. We won’t get Barkley at this low of a price point again in 2021 so now’s your time.

P.S. what in the hell was FanDuel thinking when making his price-tag?

Mike Davis ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

There’s nothing sexy about journeyman, Mike Davis, but this dude’s adjusted expected opportunity share is top-10 for NFL backs in Week 3. The Giants’ defense ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and we all know how bad the Falcons’ defense is as a whole… there will be plenty of back and forth in this game leaving Mike Davis as a borderline-lock candidate for 2.5x value, which is all we need in our cash builds.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Ty’son Williams, Austin Ekeler

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

*UPDATE: Adding Marvin Jones to the cash pool. Player prop of 5 catches and 62+ yards is too hard to ignore at that price/ownership.

Cooper Kupp ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD), Chris Godwin ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD), Robert Woods ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD)

I hate listing this many players for one section of a write-up, but plain and simple: you want to get exposure to this Bucs/Rams game with a total sitting at 56 points. With Antonio Brown likely out, Chris Godwin should see a lot more snaps outside (as opposed to the slot) and avoid Jalen Ramsey a bit more than usual.

For the Rams’ situation, I honestly just prefer whoever is cheaper (Robert Woods), unless you can afford Cooper Kupp. With Murphy-Bunting now on the IR, both of these Rams’ wideouts will get their fair share of Ross Cockrell in coverage… advantage Rams. It’s hard to avoid the hot hand in Cooper Kupp right now even though I tell myself there’s still nothing special to this kid. The Rams sure as hell aren’t going to be very effective on the ground against this Bucs’ stout defensive line.

Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,700 FD)

Stefon Diggs has had a quiet start to the season but look for that to change this weekend with a flurry of plus-matchups for Diggs going up against this Washington secondary. For a guy with an expected 29% target share, he should be priced up over $8,000 on both sites. Josh Allen and company are due for a big game and with the uptempo pace both of these teams like to play in… it should be this week.

Keenan Allen ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

Another game we are going to want to attack is clearly the Chiefs/Chargers and there’s no safer cash play in this game at the receiver position than Keenan Allen. Another massive total and a gamescript that favors Herbert throwing the ball 38+ times. I absolutely love Keenan Allen at sub $7K who is a mortal lock for 2.5x value in PPR formats.

Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

Targeting wide receivers against Seattle’s secondary is going to be something we do early and often in NFL DFS throughout all of 2021. Tre Flowers is in for a long, long day here trying to stay with the route running extraordinaire, Justin Jefferson and his 26% expected target share this week.

Marquise Brown ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)

Simply put, Detroit’s secondary is horrid and decimated by injuries. Hollywood Brown is 100% healthy and being heavily utilized in an uber-efficient offense that leads our Totals Tool in expected offense this week. Take advantage of the pricing error and play the hot hand in Brown who currently has a ~30% target share in this offense!

*UPDATE: Moving to Tyler Boyd or Ja’Marr Chase in cash due to no Tee Higgins. One of them will be locked into my cash lineup. As of now, I prefer Boyd on DraftKings, Chase on FanDuel*

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Chase Claypool, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Travis Kelce. The DFS community are going to have a hard time paying up for Kelce this week but he’s always the top tight-end cash play despite a tough matchup against Derwin James. No matter the coverage, gamescript, Kelce gets it done for us and always has multiple mis-matches to exploit in zone coverage.

Darren Waller ($7,400 DK / $7,400 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel, almost an auto-play there against a Dolphins’ secondary that struggles immensely against opposing tight-ends who run the majority of their routes out of the slot.

T.J. Hockenson ($5,200 DK / $6,300 FD)

Similar to Waller on FanDuel, Hockenson’s price is criminally low on DraftKings. This dude is the #1, #2, and #3 target in this Detroit offense. This is a rather tough matchup against the Ravens who will certainly scheme to double-team him, but if we’re just looking for 10+ points out of the tight-end position, we can’t overlook Hockenson.

*UPDATE: With me taking away Marquise Brown, I’m making Mark Andrews or Tyler Higbee a lock (if I cannot get up to Kelce)*

Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Mark Andrews, Jared Cook

Defense / Special Teams

Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Las Vegas Raiders
Arizona Cardinals
Washington Football Team
Cincinnati Bengals

Good luck to all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

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The Fortinet Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to the Fortinet Final Ownership Projections, aka we used to be the Safeway open, aka The Korn Ferry Debutante Ball. This week dispersed among names like Rham and Matsuyama are names like Blixt and Skinn and Sigg. There are some contenders from the Korn Ferry tour and there are some pretenders. Distinguishing between the two will go a long way towards separating the bill collector from your new broker opening a new CD account for you.

The narratives include why is Rahm playing here ? Perhaps it’s a tune up for the Ryder Cup next week, or it’s just that he could lap this field 3 times while napping in between holes. he is that good right now. Kevin Na is angry for being snubbed at missing out on a Ryder Cup position, at 10,000 salary, I could care less how outraged he is, if he beats me by not rostering him so be it. I think the pundits are buying the Horshel victory at the European Championship last week and Billie’s statement that he was proving Captain Stricker wrong. He may be wrong, Billie may have not gotten that phone call, but Stricker is still Captain and Billie can get to the Ryder Cup by purchasing a four day pass to the event. Twitter went bonkers because Captain America, or Patrick Reed (when not wearing his cape) was left off as well. I heard he allegedly uses the cape to hide addressing the ball just a few inches closer to the hole.

It’s great to be back after such a long lay off, 11 whole days, and this is the start of the 21-22 PGA season. I hope we can continue where we left off and show green screens everywhere as we have been doing. It was really hard to pull away from that Raiders/ Baltimore game Sunday night to start pulling metrics for this week, but that’s what we do.

There was a slight issue with all the new Korn Ferry entries, some had decent metrics, some who earned exemptions for various reasons didn’t have much history, and the program refused to recognize players like Gutschewski, so we had to hand feed the data into the program one by one.

Let’s take a look at your Fortinet Final Ownership:

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Rahm, John	33.7	12100
Pereira, Mito	24.9	8000
Varner III, Harold	24.2	9100
Zalatoris,Will	20.9	10500
Ghim, Doug	19.6	7900
Simpson, Webb	18.5	10800
Hoffman, Charley	17.6	8800
Na, Kevin	15.8	10000
Champ, Cameron	15.4	9000
McNealy, Maverick	15.3	8600
Munoz, Sebastian	15.3	9200
Reavie, Chez	14.6	8500
Grillo, Emiliano	13.4	8900
List, Luke	12.9	7100
Perez, Pat	12.8	7900
Homa, Max	12.1	8700
Swafford, Hudson	11.5	7200
Steele, Brendan	11.3	7400
Higgs, Harry	11.2	7600
Matsuyama, Hideki	10.8	11000
Pendrith, Taylor	10.3	7400
Straka, Sepp	9.7	7600
Tringale, Cameron	9.4	9700
Gooch, Talor	9.4	8000
Lebioda, Hank	8.3	7100
Hadwin, Adam	8.1	7800
Herbert, Lucas	7.8	7700
Kim, Si Woo	7.7	9300
Rodgers, Patrick	7.4	7000
Bramlett, Joseph	7.4	7300
Kizzire, Patton	7.1	7500
Ramey,Chad	6.9	7000
Jaeger, Stephan	6.9	8200
Moore, Taylor	6.3	7700
Sloan, Roger	6.2	7800
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	5.7	7300
Svensson, Adam	5.6	7200
Leishman, Marc	5.3	9500
Hoge, Tom	5.3	7100
Griffin, Lanto	5.2	7300
Schenk, Adam	5.2	7300
Moore, Ryan	5.2	7500
Howell III, Charlie	5.1	7700
Stuard, Brian	5.1	7600
Todd, Brendon	4.8	8400
Rai, Aaron	4.8	7400
Frittelli, Dylan	4.1	7500
Stanley, Kyle	4.1	6700
Merritt, Troy	4.1	7200
Ryder, Sam	3.8	6800
Pan, CT	3.7	7500
Thompson, Michael	3.6	6900
Whaley, Vincent	3.4	6600
Mickelson, Phil	3.4	8100
Smalley, Alex	3.2	7000
Theegala, Sahith	3.1	7400
Knox, Russell	3.1	7100
Hahn, James	3.1	6800
Snedeker, Brandt	3.1	8300
Percy, Cameron	3.1	6800
Hagy, Brandon	2.9	6700
Hoag, Bo	2.9	6800
Garnett, Brice	2.9	6700
McCarthy, Denny	2.9	6700
Sigg, Greyson	2.9	7100
Taylor, Nick	2.9	7300
Hubbard, Mark	2.8	6500
Burgoon, Bronson	2.7	6600
Mullinax, Trey	2.6	6600
Redman, Doc	2.1	7200
Dufner, Jason	2.1	6800
Hodges, Lee	1.9	6600
Piercy, Scott	1.9	7000
Creel. Joshua	1.9	6700
Armour, Ryan	1.8	6900
Kucher, Matt	1.8	7000
Wu, Brandon	1.7	6400
Tway, Kevin	1.7	6600
Putnam, Andrew	1.6	6900
Huh, John	1.4	6600
Hardy, Nick	1.4	6200
Buckley, Hayden	1.4	6800
Hickok, Kramer	1.4	6700
Lipsky, David	1.4	6700
McCumber, Tyler	1.3	6200
Stallings, Scott	1.3	6900
Poston, JT	1.3	7200
Long, Adam	1.2	6600
Landry ,Andrew	1.2	6500
Kohles, Ben	1.1	6400
Hadley, Chesson	1.1	7000
Herman, Jim	1.1	6500
Wu, Dylan	0.9	6400
Barjon, Paul	0.9	6200
Willett, Danny	0.9	6900
Spaun, JJ	0.9	6400
Malnati, Peter	0.9	6100
NeSmith, Matthew	0.9	6400
Lee, Danny	0.9	6400
Chappell, Kevin	0.9	6500
Duncan, Tyler	0.8	6500
Riley, Davis	0.8	6400
Clark, Wyndham	0.8	6400
Hossler, Beau	0.8	6300
Cook, Austin	0.8	6300
Van Der Walt, Dawie	0.7	6300
Reeves, Seth	0.6	6300
Taylor, Vaughn	0.6	6100
Tarren, Callum	0.5	6300
Gligic, Michael	0.5	6500
Kitayama, Kurt	0.5	6300
Seiffert, Chase	0.5	6100
Gutschewski, Scott	0.4	6000
Drewitt, Brett	0.4	6000
Martin, Ben	0.4	6200
Watney, Nick	0.4	6100
Uihlein, Peter	0.4	6900
Augenstein, John	0.4	6400
Novak, Andrew	0.4	6500
Young, Cameron	0.4	6500
Haas, Bill	0.4	6200
Pettit, Turk	0.4	6100
Lashley, Nate	0.4	6200
Baddeley, Aaron	0.4	6200
Hearn, David	0.4	6000
Holmes, JB	0.4	6300
Skinns, David	0.3	6600
Smotherman, Austin	0.3	6300
Wolfe, Jared	0.3	6200
Yu, Kevin	0.3	6800
Suh, Justin	0.3	6400
Van Pelt, Bo	0.3	6300
Knous, Jim	0.3	6000
Lovemark, Jamie	0.3	6200
Brown, Scott	0.3	6100
Byrd, Jonathan	0.3	6000
Trainer, Martin	0.3	6000
Lower, Justin	0.2	6500
Thompson, Curtis	0.2	6200
Blixt, Jonas	0.2	6100
Kang, Sung	0.2	6400
Kraft, Kelly	0.2	6000
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.2	6100
Ventura, Kris	0.2	6100
Duncan, Michael	0.2	6000
McGreevy, Max	0.1	6100
McGirt, William	0.1	6000
Stroud, Chris	0.1	6000
Cummins, Quade	0.1	6100
Trahan, DJ	0.1	6100
Potter Jr., Ted	0.1	6100
McCarthy, Josh	0.1	6000
Kim, Michael	0.1	6000
O’Hair, Sean	0.1	6200
Werbylo, Trevor	0.0	6200
Stadler, Kevin	0.0	6000

0These final ownership figures for The Fortinet are accurate as of 18:01 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock. Expect Rahm to go slightly higher.

My picks for the Fortinet Championship

Top Tier: Rham. Simpson.

Mid Tier: Perez, Gooch, Mcnealy

Low Tier: Putnam, Nick Taylor, Sneds

Out in Left Play: Trey Mullinax

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the The Fortinet Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Patrick, Antonio and Isaiah to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The Fortinet Championship will be posted tonight in Discord. He ended up with a 43-12 record for having to take a golfer with very bad metrics that no one wants to roster. That is close to 80% winners where pundits normally cringe at the thought of having to pick a golfer. Those of you who play golf DFS know what kind of a record that is. Antonio has been rolling with his BBB play in Discord, and I hit a streak every now and then with the Frisky Biscuit play. Joel, aka Draft Master Flex has allegedly begun negotiations to buy Draft Kings since he has most of their money anyway. I am negotiating to lease a food cart near DraftKings headquarters with my winnings…..

Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer has correctly picked the last three outrights, including Cantlay over Rahm in the championship. Sia and Joel have been hitting the first round leaders with their picks, if you aren’t listening to their podcast on Tuesday evenings, you are giving away money.

This is my favorite time of the year, we get to sweat golf all day Thursday then play the NFL Showdown Thursday nights, Stix Pix and Stoweby, 2 Lock and Adam have hammered week one football. Then on Fridays we have the cut sweat followed by a college football game. Sunday’s are the best, sweating the final holes with the NFL games going on and then once golf is done another Sunday night Showdown with the NFL. These are great and wonderful times and a perfect way to build a bankroll with solid intel and good money management. I wish all of you a very profitable 2021-2022.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)

Don’t care what the ownership here is at all. This is a 14-game slate where a large portion of the field is going to try to reinvent the wheel to find some sneaky quarterback no one is going to play in hopes the contrarian build puts them on top of the leaderboards. Let them donate.

What else do we need to see from Patrick Mahomes? He has the highest upside and the highest floor of anyone on the slate. There are plenty of other plays in this article and on the Win Daily site to help you get different elsewhere. We know Stefanski is going to game-plan to keep Mahomes off the field and use that uber-efficient run offense, but that doesn’t scare me one bit as the Chiefs are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL despite any game-tempo concerns we can hypothesize.

Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

If you’re in discord and an avid Win Daily member, you already are well aware of my love for Russ in 2021 and right off the bat this weekend in Indianapolis. New offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, comes from the Sean McVay tree of up-tempo, no-huddle offense that should amplify all of Russell’s strengths as a signal caller. At 3-5% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings NFL DFS GPP contests, it’s giddy up, Russ!

Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

This is more of a dart-throw based on lack of ownership and immediate leverage off of Dalvin Cook chalk. In 2020, Kirk Cousins absolutely carved up the bottom half of the NFL’s passing defenses (in terms of DVOA), he averaged over 300-yards passing and 2.75 touchdowns, throwing for three scores in all but one matchup.

Yes, the Bengals secondary should be relatively improved from their 2020 unit (27th in pass defense DVOA), but if the red-zone variance goes against Dalvin and towards the Minnesota passing attack, this stack lead by Cousins will be a GPP winner.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

In lineups I’m not prioritizing Patrick Mahomes, I’m going to give a very strong look to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. When looking at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool from Win Daily Sports, it’s no surprise the Chiefs are right there in the top-four for overall touchdown equity.

The Adjusted Expected Team Totals are strictly team totals based off of touchdown equity as opposed to Vegas Team Totals that bake-in special teams.

We briefly touched on red-zone variance when discussing Kirk Cousins, now let’s do the same with the Kansas City Chiefs. This offense is projected to go absolutely nuts (again, to no surprise) yet CEH is projected to be 4-8% in overall ownership. The Chiefs will not give up on this kid after a rough start to his red-zone rushing career as a rookie and I fully expect they use the hell out of him in the short-passing game against these beatable Cleveland linebackers… and to also avoid a nasty pass rush from Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett.

Simply put, I WANT exposure to this Kansas City offense in some form in most (if not all) of my NFL DFS GPP builds this weekend. What better way than to utilize an under-owned three-down running back on a team that’s going to score a lot?

Nick Chubb ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)

When building Patrick Mahomes lineups this week, I want to find a way to get a little different when I stack him with BOTH Tyreek and Travis Kelce and I believe the best way to do that is by using a 2-5% owned, Nick Chubb (expensive to do and that’s a contrarian way of going to do it when there’s this much value on the slate).

I don’t need to preach much more about my love for this outside-zone running scheme Stefanski brought over from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree and how Stefanski’s game-plan is likely going to be to give his running backs 40 touches in this matchup. The above alone sets up for an excellent Nick Chubb gamescript as long as they can keep it relatively close early-on.

Outside of Chris Jones, this Kansas City defensive line is horrid (sorry, Frank Clark) and graded 31st in run defense DVOA in 2020. As long as the 90+ degree heat doesn’t get to Chubb (I mean, the dude played college football in the southeast, 90 degrees should feel like a homecoming), Chubb is going to be in a prime spot for 115+ all-purpose yards and significant touchdown equity in one of the most popular game-stacks on this slate (at incredibly low ownership).

Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD)

I am all the way on on Miles Sanders this year, Mainly, for his fourth round ADP, but also from a NFL DFS perspective. I trust Nick Sirianni and the fact he didn’t really keep much competition for carries on the 53-man roster. This game has big time shoot-out ability and the AETY Model grades Miles Sanders 5th in overall running back touchdown equity. This matchup is a significant advantage for the Philly offensive line and if Sanders remains on the field for a majority of third downs, this can be an absolute coming out party for Sanders at 4-8% ownership.

Jonathan Taylor ($8,000 DK / $7,900 FD)

Absolute GPP lock on FanDuel at that price-tag with what should be a healthy offensive line in Indianapolis. With my deep, deep love for Russell Wilson, I need to run it back with an Indianapolis Colt or two.

Why the hell are people not interested in Jonathan Taylor? Despite a tougher matchup against a stout Seattle run-defense, we saw how matchup proof Taylor can be when he’s given the keys to a full workload. At 2-5% ownership for an elite back that will see 20+ touches, I am in.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Damien Harris

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Read the cash game checkdown for more analysis on my love for DK Metcalf. The AETY Model is incredibly high on Metcalf in this matchup and grades him out as the highest receiving touchdown equity outside of Davante Adams. This dude is going to go wild on Sunday and prove he is much more than a “go-route” NFL wide receiver. You just cannot cover this dude!

Adam Thielen ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Justin Jefferson ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)

Adam Thielen is an absolute red-zone superstar ranking second overall for all 2020 wide receivers in red-zone target share (just behind Davante Adams). I also love Justin Jefferson in this spot, but the AETY Model projects Thielen for a higher ceiling in NFL DFS GPP builds… and we trust the AETY Model. Again, significant leverage against the Dalvin Cook chalk if one (or likely both) of these Vikings’ wideouts have a field day.

Julio Jones ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD)

How the hell is a HEALTHY Julio Jones going to be 2-5% owned at these price tags in the game with the highest total on the slate? Don’t overthink this, Julio Jones is still one of the best wide receivers in football and Arizona’s secondary is trash.

Robby Anderson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Plain and simple, Brian Tulloch’s theory on revenge narratives. He got me into this industry years ago, so I owe him this one. Darnold and Anderson will connect on a deep ball touchdown against a brutal, young, limited-in-talent Jets’ secondary. It’s “revenge szn” (man, I absolutely hate that term) for Sam Darold and Robby Anderson. There’s a lot more actual route detail I can break down for you here but this is already a long article, just trust me. #Analysis

Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)

I don’t love Marshall and Robby together unless you’re full on stacking Carolina (even then I’d recommend using CMC with one of the receivers), but I cannot ignore the fact that all of the $3K ownership has now shifted to Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore. I’m sorry, but the best play at this price is Terrance Marshall in the slot here for Carolina. He offers the world of salary relief in NFL DFS GPP builds for you to jam in your Dalvin Cooks and McCaffrey’s of the world and is projected for damn-near 4x value via the AETY Model.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Chase Claypool, Jalen Reagor, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell

Tight Ends

Honestly, I just love Travis Kelce and George Kittle too much and the price-tag on Kyle Pitts (despite us actually knowing his role and relatively low Vegas player props…) makes it tough for me to go anywhere else at the tight end position.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Dan Arnold

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