week1

We have arrived at our last reasonably-sized slate of the NFL season, so let’s enjoy this weekend, even if our favorite team just so happened to get absolutely slaughtered last week. I will once again be breaking things down by looking at the largest slate available, which unlike last weekend, is actually also the slate with the largest GPP’s across the DFS industry. This is the final week where we will have this format, as next week I will just do a full overview of both games, so enjoy this final version of the top QB’s and stacks breakdown! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Well, I made the mistake of failing to write up and target this quarterback last week, at least partially due to the fact that he was facing off against my team. You know that whole fool me once, fool me twice thing? Yeah, that will not be happening here as the first quarterback I will be targeting this weekend is Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen and this Bills offense absolutely emasculated the New England Patriots defense on national television, in what was arguably the worst defensive showing in NFL history, as the Bills pitched a perfect game and turned every single offensive drive into a touchdown. Now, a portion of that is the Patriots defense being horrendous and old and dust, but another portion is definitely Allen and the elite weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs have the worst defense of any of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, so this is not only the spot with the hottest signal caller in the NFL, it is also the easiest matchup. Kansas City surrendered the second highest production to opposing QB’s, and Josh Allen should have yet another field day to put his team into the AFC Championship.

B. In this exact spot last week, I had an argument to target the quarterback facing the Cincinnati Bengals. While that did not exactly crush, I will be doing the same here with a more talented arm in Ryan Tannehill ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD). Interestingly enough, Tannehill is the exact same price on DraftKings this week as Derek Carr was last week as well. It seems as though the stars are all aligning for this play as an excellent salary-saver this weekend. While the Packers do own a slightly worse total defense DVOA figure, the Bengals are the worst team in DVOA against the pass this weekend, ranking just 24th in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the Bengals are rolling on offense heading into the playoffs, so we should expect their opponents to pass more than usual in order to keep pace. This is excellent news for a Titans offense that will potentially have all three of their top weapons back in play and Tannehill is easily the best option at the position if we do not have the salary to squeeze in Josh Allen.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the divisional round this weekend is Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD). This gives us a nice blend of a top-tier option, a mid-range option, and a salary-saving option at the QB position. While I am more likely to either pay up or save, the field will likely follow a similar route so I expect Stafford to go overlooked this weekend. This Tampa Bay defense is no joke and the Rams have to travel for this game, but at least the climate will be similar to what they are used to in terms of temperature. We have known all season to avoid NFL rushing attacks facing the Bucs, but this has led to TB ranking just 25th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. The Rams also have the third lowest sack potential of the 8 teams playing this weekend, so Stafford should have more time in the pocket than a majority of the QBs remaining. While this offense did not need to do much to beat the pathetic Cardinals on Monday, they certainly will need to show up to beat this Bucs team.

The Stacks

A. This game has the highest total of the four games in the divisional round of the NFL, and will almost definitely be the chalkiest, so we need to keep that in mind when building our lineups. Devin Singletary went from an auto-fade in a time share with Zack Moss each week, to potentially our top option at the runningback position. The wideouts in this offense consisting of Diggs, Sanders, Davis, and Beasley are all viable and any of them can catch a few touchdown passes from their gunslinger quarterback. Keep an eye on ownership in order to help inform our roster construction decisions with the Bills pass catchers. Dawson Knox also absolutely smashed this Chiefs team earlier in the season to the tune of 117 receiving yards and a TD, so he is another potential punt option at TE for us if we believe he has this Chiefs defense’s number. Jerick McKinnon came out of literally nowhere and won people a ton of money last week as Andy Reid failed to mentioned that Darrel Williams was essentially out. This was insanely annoying to us DFS players, and we will have to keep a close eye on the news from this backfield before we make any decisions. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce are our pass catching options for a bring-back game stack. Hill and Kelce are nearly the same price and Hill is extremely discounted compared to other receivers, so he is my favorite KC option this weekend.

B. As I referenced above, we will potentially see the trio of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all “healthy” (Read: “Active”) for this contest, with the largest question mark of course lying with King Henry, who is returning from a lengthy injury absence. If you trust beat writer Twitter videos, then Henry could be all systems go as he was looking like his spry self in practice, and he is clearly our top option from this game if so, given that his price tag is a fraction of its typical level across the industry. Julio Jones finally caught a touchdown for the first time this season in week 18, but I really cannot recommend him as a DFS play at this point in his career. A.J. Brown is easily our top pass-catching option and we can sprinkle in some Anthony Firkser at tight end if we want to get weird and save some salary given his very strong finish to the regular season. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is once again an excellent bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also very appealing this weekend. Similar to Darrel Williams, Tee Higgins seemed as though he was not even playing last weekend and I expect his ownership to plummet, which means he will be someone that I frequently target as we have seen the massive ceiling he posesses. C.J. Uzomah is gathering buzz as yet another cheap TE option, and I will certainly mix him in with the other shares of cheap tight ends I mentioned above.

C. Last, and potentially least, we have the Los Angeles Rams against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The story out of LA is Cam Akers returning from an Achilles tear in record time and looking just as good as he did prior to injury. Sony Michel may very well be dead in this offense, and Akers is way too cheap. I am hoping that people will be scared away by the TB rush defense, because Akers is one of our top options at RB. Kupp had a down game to kick off the playoffs, but as I mentioned, the Cardinals were such an absolute joke that the Rams barely needed Kupp at all. Odell Beckham continues to show that he was clearly being wasted in Cleveland, as any talented player in Cleveland is, and he is the only other WR I have interest in, as Van Jefferson has become somewhat of an afterthought. Tyler Higbee is one of my least favorite TE options, as he has not looked good in recent weeks and seems to drop too many easy passes. On the Bucs side of the football, Leonard Fournette may be returning, and if he does I have interest, but if he does not then Gio Bernard seems to be the back that Bruce “Helmet Slapper” Ariens favors. Mike Evans had himself an absolute day last weekend, and he is our clear top bring back option, while Rob Gronkowski is due to have a ceiling game in at least one of these playoff matchups.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We have arrived at our last reasonably-sized slate of the NFL season, so let’s enjoy this weekend, even if our favorite team just so happened to get absolutely slaughtered last week. I will once again be breaking things down by looking at the largest slate available, which unlike last weekend, is actually also the slate with the largest GPP’s across the DFS industry. This is the final week where we will have this format, as next week I will just do a full overview of both games, so enjoy this final version of the top QB’s and stacks breakdown! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Well, I made the mistake of failing to write up and target this quarterback last week, at least partially due to the fact that he was facing off against my team. You know that whole fool me once, fool me twice thing? Yeah, that will not be happening here as the first quarterback I will be targeting this weekend is Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen and this Bills offense absolutely emasculated the New England Patriots defense on national television, in what was arguably the worst defensive showing in NFL history, as the Bills pitched a perfect game and turned every single offensive drive into a touchdown. Now, a portion of that is the Patriots defense being horrendous and old and dust, but another portion is definitely Allen and the elite weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs have the worst defense of any of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, so this is not only the spot with the hottest signal caller in the NFL, it is also the easiest matchup. Kansas City surrendered the second highest production to opposing QB’s, and Josh Allen should have yet another field day to put his team into the AFC Championship.

B. In this exact spot last week, I had an argument to target the quarterback facing the Cincinnati Bengals. While that did not exactly crush, I will be doing the same here with a more talented arm in Ryan Tannehill ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD). Interestingly enough, Tannehill is the exact same price on DraftKings this week as Derek Carr was last week as well. It seems as though the stars are all aligning for this play as an excellent salary-saver this weekend. While the Packers do own a slightly worse total defense DVOA figure, the Bengals are the worst team in DVOA against the pass this weekend, ranking just 24th in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the Bengals are rolling on offense heading into the playoffs, so we should expect their opponents to pass more than usual in order to keep pace. This is excellent news for a Titans offense that will potentially have all three of their top weapons back in play and Tannehill is easily the best option at the position if we do not have the salary to squeeze in Josh Allen.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the divisional round this weekend is Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD). This gives us a nice blend of a top-tier option, a mid-range option, and a salary-saving option at the QB position. While I am more likely to either pay up or save, the field will likely follow a similar route so I expect Stafford to go overlooked this weekend. This Tampa Bay defense is no joke and the Rams have to travel for this game, but at least the climate will be similar to what they are used to in terms of temperature. We have known all season to avoid NFL rushing attacks facing the Bucs, but this has led to TB ranking just 25th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. The Rams also have the third lowest sack potential of the 8 teams playing this weekend, so Stafford should have more time in the pocket than a majority of the QBs remaining. While this offense did not need to do much to beat the pathetic Cardinals on Monday, they certainly will need to show up to beat this Bucs team.

The Stacks

A. This game has the highest total of the four games in the divisional round of the NFL, and will almost definitely be the chalkiest, so we need to keep that in mind when building our lineups. Devin Singletary went from an auto-fade in a time share with Zack Moss each week, to potentially our top option at the runningback position. The wideouts in this offense consisting of Diggs, Sanders, Davis, and Beasley are all viable and any of them can catch a few touchdown passes from their gunslinger quarterback. Keep an eye on ownership in order to help inform our roster construction decisions with the Bills pass catchers. Dawson Knox also absolutely smashed this Chiefs team earlier in the season to the tune of 117 receiving yards and a TD, so he is another potential punt option at TE for us if we believe he has this Chiefs defense’s number. Jerick McKinnon came out of literally nowhere and won people a ton of money last week as Andy Reid failed to mentioned that Darrel Williams was essentially out. This was insanely annoying to us DFS players, and we will have to keep a close eye on the news from this backfield before we make any decisions. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce are our pass catching options for a bring-back game stack. Hill and Kelce are nearly the same price and Hill is extremely discounted compared to other receivers, so he is my favorite KC option this weekend.

B. As I referenced above, we will potentially see the trio of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all “healthy” (Read: “Active”) for this contest, with the largest question mark of course lying with King Henry, who is returning from a lengthy injury absence. If you trust beat writer Twitter videos, then Henry could be all systems go as he was looking like his spry self in practice, and he is clearly our top option from this game if so, given that his price tag is a fraction of its typical level across the industry. Julio Jones finally caught a touchdown for the first time this season in week 18, but I really cannot recommend him as a DFS play at this point in his career. A.J. Brown is easily our top pass-catching option and we can sprinkle in some Anthony Firkser at tight end if we want to get weird and save some salary given his very strong finish to the regular season. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is once again an excellent bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also very appealing this weekend. Similar to Darrel Williams, Tee Higgins seemed as though he was not even playing last weekend and I expect his ownership to plummet, which means he will be someone that I frequently target as we have seen the massive ceiling he posesses. C.J. Uzomah is gathering buzz as yet another cheap TE option, and I will certainly mix him in with the other shares of cheap tight ends I mentioned above.

C. Last, and potentially least, we have the Los Angeles Rams against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The story out of LA is Cam Akers returning from an Achilles tear in record time and looking just as good as he did prior to injury. Sony Michel may very well be dead in this offense, and Akers is way too cheap. I am hoping that people will be scared away by the TB rush defense, because Akers is one of our top options at RB. Kupp had a down game to kick off the playoffs, but as I mentioned, the Cardinals were such an absolute joke that the Rams barely needed Kupp at all. Odell Beckham continues to show that he was clearly being wasted in Cleveland, as any talented player in Cleveland is, and he is the only other WR I have interest in, as Van Jefferson has become somewhat of an afterthought. Tyler Higbee is one of my least favorite TE options, as he has not looked good in recent weeks and seems to drop too many easy passes. On the Bucs side of the football, Leonard Fournette may be returning, and if he does I have interest, but if he does not then Gio Bernard seems to be the back that Bruce “Helmet Slapper” Ariens favors. Mike Evans had himself an absolute day last weekend, and he is our clear top bring back option, while Rob Gronkowski is due to have a ceiling game in at least one of these playoff matchups.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We have arrived at our last reasonably-sized slate of the NFL season, so let’s enjoy this weekend, even if our favorite team just so happened to get absolutely slaughtered last week. I will once again be breaking things down by looking at the largest slate available, which unlike last weekend, is actually also the slate with the largest GPP’s across the DFS industry. This is the final week where we will have this format, as next week I will just do a full overview of both games, so enjoy this final version of the top QB’s and stacks breakdown! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Well, I made the mistake of failing to write up and target this quarterback last week, at least partially due to the fact that he was facing off against my team. You know that whole fool me once, fool me twice thing? Yeah, that will not be happening here as the first quarterback I will be targeting this weekend is Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen and this Bills offense absolutely emasculated the New England Patriots defense on national television, in what was arguably the worst defensive showing in NFL history, as the Bills pitched a perfect game and turned every single offensive drive into a touchdown. Now, a portion of that is the Patriots defense being horrendous and old and dust, but another portion is definitely Allen and the elite weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs have the worst defense of any of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, so this is not only the spot with the hottest signal caller in the NFL, it is also the easiest matchup. Kansas City surrendered the second highest production to opposing QB’s, and Josh Allen should have yet another field day to put his team into the AFC Championship.

B. In this exact spot last week, I had an argument to target the quarterback facing the Cincinnati Bengals. While that did not exactly crush, I will be doing the same here with a more talented arm in Ryan Tannehill ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD). Interestingly enough, Tannehill is the exact same price on DraftKings this week as Derek Carr was last week as well. It seems as though the stars are all aligning for this play as an excellent salary-saver this weekend. While the Packers do own a slightly worse total defense DVOA figure, the Bengals are the worst team in DVOA against the pass this weekend, ranking just 24th in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the Bengals are rolling on offense heading into the playoffs, so we should expect their opponents to pass more than usual in order to keep pace. This is excellent news for a Titans offense that will potentially have all three of their top weapons back in play and Tannehill is easily the best option at the position if we do not have the salary to squeeze in Josh Allen.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the divisional round this weekend is Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD). This gives us a nice blend of a top-tier option, a mid-range option, and a salary-saving option at the QB position. While I am more likely to either pay up or save, the field will likely follow a similar route so I expect Stafford to go overlooked this weekend. This Tampa Bay defense is no joke and the Rams have to travel for this game, but at least the climate will be similar to what they are used to in terms of temperature. We have known all season to avoid NFL rushing attacks facing the Bucs, but this has led to TB ranking just 25th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. The Rams also have the third lowest sack potential of the 8 teams playing this weekend, so Stafford should have more time in the pocket than a majority of the QBs remaining. While this offense did not need to do much to beat the pathetic Cardinals on Monday, they certainly will need to show up to beat this Bucs team.

The Stacks

A. This game has the highest total of the four games in the divisional round of the NFL, and will almost definitely be the chalkiest, so we need to keep that in mind when building our lineups. Devin Singletary went from an auto-fade in a time share with Zack Moss each week, to potentially our top option at the runningback position. The wideouts in this offense consisting of Diggs, Sanders, Davis, and Beasley are all viable and any of them can catch a few touchdown passes from their gunslinger quarterback. Keep an eye on ownership in order to help inform our roster construction decisions with the Bills pass catchers. Dawson Knox also absolutely smashed this Chiefs team earlier in the season to the tune of 117 receiving yards and a TD, so he is another potential punt option at TE for us if we believe he has this Chiefs defense’s number. Jerick McKinnon came out of literally nowhere and won people a ton of money last week as Andy Reid failed to mentioned that Darrel Williams was essentially out. This was insanely annoying to us DFS players, and we will have to keep a close eye on the news from this backfield before we make any decisions. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce are our pass catching options for a bring-back game stack. Hill and Kelce are nearly the same price and Hill is extremely discounted compared to other receivers, so he is my favorite KC option this weekend.

B. As I referenced above, we will potentially see the trio of A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry all “healthy” (Read: “Active”) for this contest, with the largest question mark of course lying with King Henry, who is returning from a lengthy injury absence. If you trust beat writer Twitter videos, then Henry could be all systems go as he was looking like his spry self in practice, and he is clearly our top option from this game if so, given that his price tag is a fraction of its typical level across the industry. Julio Jones finally caught a touchdown for the first time this season in week 18, but I really cannot recommend him as a DFS play at this point in his career. A.J. Brown is easily our top pass-catching option and we can sprinkle in some Anthony Firkser at tight end if we want to get weird and save some salary given his very strong finish to the regular season. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is once again an excellent bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also very appealing this weekend. Similar to Darrel Williams, Tee Higgins seemed as though he was not even playing last weekend and I expect his ownership to plummet, which means he will be someone that I frequently target as we have seen the massive ceiling he posesses. C.J. Uzomah is gathering buzz as yet another cheap TE option, and I will certainly mix him in with the other shares of cheap tight ends I mentioned above.

C. Last, and potentially least, we have the Los Angeles Rams against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The story out of LA is Cam Akers returning from an Achilles tear in record time and looking just as good as he did prior to injury. Sony Michel may very well be dead in this offense, and Akers is way too cheap. I am hoping that people will be scared away by the TB rush defense, because Akers is one of our top options at RB. Kupp had a down game to kick off the playoffs, but as I mentioned, the Cardinals were such an absolute joke that the Rams barely needed Kupp at all. Odell Beckham continues to show that he was clearly being wasted in Cleveland, as any talented player in Cleveland is, and he is the only other WR I have interest in, as Van Jefferson has become somewhat of an afterthought. Tyler Higbee is one of my least favorite TE options, as he has not looked good in recent weeks and seems to drop too many easy passes. On the Bucs side of the football, Leonard Fournette may be returning, and if he does I have interest, but if he does not then Gio Bernard seems to be the back that Bruce “Helmet Slapper” Ariens favors. Mike Evans had himself an absolute day last weekend, and he is our clear top bring back option, while Rob Gronkowski is due to have a ceiling game in at least one of these playoff matchups.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

Well, after 18 weeks grinding out NFL DFS, we have finally arrived at the playoffs. We have 3 days of football coming for us this weekend, starting with two games on Saturday, then three on Sunday and one on Monday. I will be covering the slate from a full Saturday – Monday perspective, but any of my targets are also perfectly viable on the single-day Saturday or Sunday slates. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Getting things started with the second largest favorites on the board on wildcard weekend, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their MVP signal-caller Tom Brady ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD). Brady draws the softest matchup of any quarterback taking the field this weekend, as he will face off against a Philadelphia Eagles team ranked 25th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. While losing Godwin and Antonio Clown will definitely hurt this offense, the Bucs still have one of the highest implied totals of the weekend and are large 8.5 point favorites at home. The salary cap is tight on DraftKings with not much value out there since it is playoff time, so I expect Brady to come in much lower owned than he normally would be in this matchup. If we are able to get savings elsewhere, then Brady is my favorite spend-up option of wildcard weekend.

B. Another QB that I expect to be low-owned despite being in one of the better spots on the full-weekend slate is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD). Carr is my favorite option if we need to save some salary at this position, and it is looking very likely that that is exactly what we will need to do. The Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is mediocre to below average. This unit ranks just 19th in the NFL in total DVOA, and they are even worse in DVOA against the pass, ranking just 24th in the league. The Raiders will likely need to feature a pass-heavy game script, given that they are underdogs in this matchup and they will need to keep pace with the aforementioned Bengals high-flying offense. This is my favorite game to stack and if we go the Carr route over Burrow then we are able to save a substantial amount of salary that will come in handy for our wideouts and RBs.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target to kick off the 2021-2022 NFL postseason is Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD). This is another spot where we can pay up to be contrarian, as few will have the salary flexibility to afford Mahomes this weekend. While the DVOA rankings of 14th and 8th for total and against the pass, respectively, are not exactly telling us that this is an amazing matchup, this is Mahomes we are talking about. The Chiefs are frequently discussed as a team that saves a lot of their playbook for the post season, and we should see Andy Reid and this offense come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday night. Based on the strength of the Chiefs offensive line compared to the strength of the Steelers defensive line, Mahomes has the second lowest sack potential of any QB taking the field this weekend. In other words, he should have roughly the second most amount of time in the pocket, right behind Jalen Hurts. When you give Mahomes time in the pocket, bad things tend to happen to the opposing defense, and I certainly expect that to be the case this weekend.

The Stacks

A. As I mentioned above, the goat has seen his weapons on offense dwindle as we head into the playoffs, but he does still have the best tight end in NFL history and one of the best, if not the best, red zone wide receiver weapons in the entire league. Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans are the two pass-catching options for us here, but Leonard Fournette is also expected to be back and healthy for this game so we can include him in our Tampa Bay stacks as a pass catcher out of the backfield. All four of our options from this team are expensive however, so we will definitely need to find some cheap pieces if we are stacking up the Bucs this weekend. Given that this is the playoffs, game stacks are now much more in play than they were during the regular season, because for the most part we have a competent team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have Miles Sanders leading their backfield, who I never get excited to roster, and rookie DeVonta Smith still needs a few years before he is a top tier NFL receiver. The top bring-back option here is actually tight end Dallas Goedert, and I am perfectly fine going the two tight end route if we want to include both TEs from this game. Goedert is a great value option and will give us more unique lineup construction compared to the field.

B. Now we arrive at my favorite game stack of the weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders at the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Jacobs is clearly one of our top two options at RB, along with the RB on the other side of this game Joe Mixon. I find it tough to see a build without one or both of these guys winning much money this weekend. This is the very first game of the playoffs and it should get us rolling with a bang. Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and a returning Darren Waller highlight our top three options as far as pass catchers go. Waller is yet another strong tight end option, and he is my pick to be the highest scoring TE on the entire weekend. Zay Jones is an excellent source of value, as Carr has been looking his way frequently as opposing offenses zone in on Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow is fine, but may be a bit overpriced with Waller returning and soaking up a good chunk of his targets. On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is the clear number one bring-back option, although the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are also extremely appealing. Trying to pick which one of these guys will have a big game is tough, but I expect at least one, if not two, to have a big ceiling performance in this spot.

C. To close things out on super wildcard weekend, the Chiefs should finally put an end to Ben Roethlisberger’s career. Ben really struggled this season and was statistically the worst first string QB in football. That is tough to do when you have rookies like Trevor Lawrence out there struggling mightily in Jacksonville. The Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning, but I will keep my main exposure to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Many may be scared off of Hill after he was limping and barely played last week, but it sounds like he will be good to go for this game. Kelce is yet another option at a crowded tight end position, but he could easily put up a massive ceiling game against this Pittsburgh defense. Dionte Johnson is a PPR darling, as Ben just peppers him with easy 1 yard passes during the entire game. There are few sweats quite like making the mistake of betting a Dionte Johnson reception prop under. Lastly, Najee Harris is a serviceable option at RB but he is definitely third on my priority list at the position this weekend.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

For the first time in history we are entering week 18 of the NFL. Typically, teams without a bye are kicking off the playoffs at this point, but we still have one more regular season week to determine the final seeding positions. Motivation and which teams are actually playing their starters the full allotment of minutes will be the name of the game, so I will be focusing on those two aspects as I select my DFS plays this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Kicking things off with a team that does have motivation, although definitely a lower level than some teams on the main slate, we have the Buffalo Bills and their signal caller Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD). Allen’s price remained flat on Fanduel, while he was bumped up just $100 of salary cap on DK. Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, which is not somewhere that I believe I have gone the entire season up to this point. This is the week to do it though, because we are expected to have a plethora of value at our finger tips and the Bills are facing their hopeless division-mates, the New York Jets. As we know by this point in the season, the Jets are the easiest matchup in the entire NFL, ranking dead last in DVOA, 26th in DVOA against the pass, and dead last in DVOA against the run. The Bills need to win to hold off the Patriots from winning the AFC East for the millionth time, and I expect them to treat this as a playoff tune up and really take it to the Jets. While the Bucs had a strange letdown last week and really should have lost to this team, the Bills are not expected to do the same as they are the largest favorites on the board with a gigantic -16.5 betting line.

B. If, for some reason, we find ourselves needing to save some salary off of the most expensive QB option, then look no further than Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD). The Saints not only have playoff motivation on their side, they are also facing off against an awful team in the Atlanta Falcons that has a 0% chance of sniffing the playoffs. While this is not exactly promising from a game-stack perspective, this is the quarterback section and Taysom is in a smash spot. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive units in the NFL, ranking just 29th in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, and 28th in DVOA against the run. We all know the floor that Hill provides us due to his rushing upside, and the ceiling is also extremely high at this price point in this matchup. This Falcons defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate in the entire NFL, so Hill should have ample time in the pocket when he is not running wild all over this Falcons squad.

C. The final quarterback that I will look to target in the 2021-2022 NFL regular season is Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,400 FD). Murray is only the fourth highest-priced QB over on DraftKings, while he is the second highest on FanDuel, so we are getting a better deal over on DK in comparison to other players at his position. The Cardinals check in on week 18 with the third highest implied team total on the entire main slate behind only the two gargantuan favorites, the Bills and Colts. In terms of motivation, the Cardinals will make the playoffs but depending on the result of their game and one or two others, their seed can move around quite a bit. It is always tricky determining how much seeding matters to a team vs. staying healthy, but I expect the Cardinals to be extremely hungry for a win given how poorly they have finished out the regular season. Seattle ranks just 25th in DVOA, although they do rank 8th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is not a normal quarterback that is as susceptible to how well a team defends the QB position, and we are getting him at a great discount given the team’s recent struggles.

The Stacks

A. We had our first sighting of a player on the Jets that we can use as a bring-back last week, as Braxton Berrios went off as the chalky cheap wide receiver option of the week on DraftKings. However, I want to start with the team that I will have more exposure to in this game as usual, which is the Buffalo Bills. As much as it pains me to say as a Patriots fan, the Bills will almost definitely steamroll the Jets this week. The Jets essentially had their last hurrah last week as they nearly beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that blown lead essentially sums up their season. Stefon Diggs is one of the top five players I have heard around the industry this week as someone to watch in terms of incentives. He is very close to hitting a few bonuses, so I am sure that he will be letting his quarterback know that he needs to see the ball a few extra times. Sanders, Beasley, and Davis are all essentially interchangeable as second or third receiving options for our Buffalo stacks as well. The DFS sites were quick to bump up the pricing on Berrios as he was both highly owned and a strong performer, which is a recipe for the algorithms to hike up salary rapidly. Due to recency bias, I expect him to be extremely popular yet again this week which is why I will be fully fading him, along with the rest of this awful Jets team, for tournaments.

B. Moving on to the New Orleans Saints, we have an amazing pivot off of the likely chalky Berrios, in Marquez Callaway. Callaway is only $100 more salary than Berrios on DK, and I expect him to carry a fraction of the ownership. Outside of MC however, I am not interested in any of these other pass-catchers as Taysom Hill is not really the type of quarterback that will be helping more than one subpar wideout achieve a ceiling game that will help us win GPPs. Of course the top option to pair with Taysom is Alvin Kamara, and given Hill’s rushing ability and propensity to vulture touchdowns from his RB’s, I expect this combo to be relatively contrarian. As the Falcons play out the final game of yet another disappointing and lost season, they can at least hang their hat on the resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson fell off a cliff down the stretch, he had the best season of his career. With that said, I do not have much interest in him or Russel Gage in this game. My sole interest here is on another incentive-driven pass-catcher, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has massively underwhelmed relative to his expectations, catching only one touchdown all season, he has been able to rack up yards and catches in bunches. He is close to the rookie tight end receiving record which I believe is reason enough to use him as a bring-back option at the notoriously ugly tight end position on DFS sites.

C. To wrap up the regular season, we have the Arizona Cardinals facing off against the Seattle Seahawks in the desert as one of the final games on Sunday before primetime. James Conner is once again a question mark, and if he is unable to suit up, then I will start every Kyler Murray lineup with Chase Edmonds. Christian Kirk has yet to really take advantage of the lack of D-Hop in this lineup, and that has been mostly due to this team and Kyler struggling as a whole. He is a fine option to pair with Kyler for GPPs, as is A.J. Green. The top pass catching option here though is Zach Ertz, which surprises me to type as much as it surprises you to read. As I mentioned above, the tight end position has been truly brutal this year, and Ertz is getting the targets from Kyler that allow him to easily hit and exceed his value at this current price point. We have two ideal bring-back options on the other side of the ball, as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should see plenty of targets given that we should expect Russ to cook for potentially the final time with the Seahawks. Rashaad Penny has been breaking out down the stretch of the regular season as well, and I am fine going to him, although he is easily the third best option from Seattle for us given that Arizona ranks 5th in DVOA against the run.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We have yet another strange slate in the NFL this week as we have a massive 14 game main slate on Sunday with no Thursday or Saturday games. This is not Covid-driven for once, and it is nice to see the NFL quickly adjusting their protocols as things rapidly evolve. Regardless, we enter the second to last week of the NFL season with still many pieces up in the air, but they will really start to fall into place after Sunday, so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We had to be a bit creative at the quarterback position last week, and hopefully many of my loyal readers were able to profit off of the second QB that I wrote up for week 16, as Joe Burrow went bananas against the Ravens. Luckily for us, this week we do not need to mess around at this position as we have three elite arms at our disposal. The top of the list is the goat himself, Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) who will be facing off against his familiar AFC East punching bag and one of the most pathetic franchises in professional sports, the New York Jets. This Jets defense ranks dead last in DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and dead last in run DVOA. In other words, they are the worst defense in the entire national football league, so we really do not need to overthink this one. This game currently only has the fourth highest total on the board due to the expected lack of offensive production from the Jets, so hopefully we are able to get TB12 at low ownership.

B. The second elite arm that we should look to get plenty of exposure to for week 17 of the NFL is Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD). I was at the game last Sunday where Allen absolutely dismantled my Patriots defense, so I saw first hand that he is on his game heading into the final weeks of the regular season. If he can do that to the Pats, just imagine what we can expect from him against an Atlanta Falcons team that ranks second to last in DVOA, 25th in pass DVOA, and 29th in run DVOA. I also always love to take a look at the sack potential of each game to see when a quarterback will have plenty of time in the pocket, and you guessed it, Josh Allen has the lowest likelihood of being sacked or pressured of any signal caller in week 17. This is based on the Atlanta Falcons defensive line ranking dead last in the NFL, coupled with a Bills offensive line that is the third highest rated unit. Allen with time in the pocket is a scary thing, and even though we need to pay way up for him, that should only help to further lower his ownership in tournaments this week.

C. As I mentioned above, the Ravens secondary is on watch after what the Bengals did to them last Sunday, so why not ride that potential wave of fantasy goodness with Matthew Stafford ($7,100 DK / $7,600 FD) and the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens do rank 28th in total DVOA, so clearly this is a very poor defensive unit, although they somehow rank 6th in DVOA against the pass. As I mentioned with Joe Burrow last week, we can really ignore that DVOA against the pass number and hope others see it and avoid this spot. It did not seem like JB cared that this Ravens defense is ranked 6th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked second to last in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford is another reliable arm that we can target at a slightly lower salary than the two aforementioned spend-up options.

The Stacks

A. One of the value plays that you absolutely had to have last week was Antonio Brown at $4.9K on DraftKings, and he is still firmly in play this week despite DK shooting his price up to $6.1K. That is still way too cheap with Godwin definitely out, and Evans potentially out, so this is a spot for us to keep an eye on as we head towards Sunday afternoon. If Evans clears the updated protocols, then both he and AB are excellent pairing options with Tom Brady, and we can even mix in either Ronald Jones or Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I will likely side with Vaughn here as he put up similar production to Jones last week with Fournette out, yet he is significantly cheaper and we will likely need that salary savings given that we are paying up at QB. Vaughn did only see seven carries and one target compared to Jones’ 20 carries and three targets though, so we should tread lightly and try to squeeze in Jones. As usual with a team facing the Jets, I will not be touching any of the bring backs, and would be more likely to get exposure to a third/fourth Bucs player in Rob Gronkowski if looking for additional exposure to this game.

B. The Buffalo Bills continue to have a running game that we can avoid, and that will really always be the case as long as this coaching staff is around and both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are healthy. The receiving unit is returning this week as we should see Allen have Diggs, Sanders, and Davis as options for Sunday. Out-spoken anti-vaxxer Cole Beasley has also been activated so we now have quite the crowd. Diggs is the top option as usual, and I would look to pair him with Beasley, as Davis is now way overpriced given the bodies at wideout, and Sanders has been nothing short of a massive disappointment this season. Unlike the Jets, I do have some bring-back interest in the Falcons as Cordarrelle Patterson has slate-breaking upside for us at a price of $6.9K on DK. Gage is someone who is tough to trust, but the Falcons will likely be passing the ball on nearly every play as they try to keep pace with this Bills offense. This script will also benefit Kyle Pitts, who actually turned in a solid outing in week 16 and should be looking to end the season on a high note despite underachieving his expectations to date.

C. Of course with any lineup that has Matthew Stafford in it, and really with any DFS lineup in general, we should look to try to jam in the number one wide receiver in the league this season, Cooper Kupp. We will need some news to come across our screens so that we are able to find decent value to afford his $9.5K price tag, but he is obviously priority number one on this slate. Cam Akers is apparently an absolute machine, as he practiced in full and will be returning to the lineup this week after we expected him to miss the entire season. That really muddies the water of this backfield, making it one I will definitely be avoiding this week. Odell Beckham seems to have a firm grip on the WR2 spot for this Rams team, but I really view him and Van Jefferson as relatively interchangeable pieces for us to get exposure to. Tyler Higbee is a fine option at a reasonable $4K price point as well for week 17. As usual, the only two options we should be looking at from the Ravens are Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, as they look to get their team to bounce back after that rough outing against Cincinnati.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!