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Week 16 NFL DFS

Welcome back for the Week 16 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a condensed nine-game slate with mediocre totals (other than Dallas @ Miami). If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was another Podcast BYE week. Hoping to be back after the Holiday travel season).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 15 (teams we want to try to get exposure to):
– Miami Dolphins (26)
– Detroit Lions (25)
– Dallas Cowboys (24.5)
– Chicago Bears (24)
– Atlanta Falcons (23.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.

  • Dak Prescott ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – The no-brainer type of pay-up this week in an anticipated shootout and a must-win type of mindset for both teams fighting for playoff seeding. Dak is in play for all formats this week.

    Stack Options:
    CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Tony Pollard
    Bring-Back Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane
  • Justin Fields ($7,100 DK / $8,300 FD) – Likely the most popular quarterback on the Week 16 NFL DFS main-slate but for good reason. This is a cake matchup against the Cardinals (31st in pass defense DVOA) and Fields is playing for a future contract. Lock him in your cash game lineups and feel free to fire him up in GPPs, just get different somewhere.

    Stack Options: DJ Moore, Cole Kmet
    Bring-Back Options: Trey McBride, Michael Wilson
  • Trevor Lawrence ($6,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – It sounds like T-Law is going to pass “concussion protocol” and be wheels up against the pass-funnel defense of the Tampa Bay Bucs. We don’t need to discuss how poor the Bucs’ have been on defense lately…

    Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
    Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin
  • Kyler Murray ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD) – I’ll go right back to Kyler again this week. I absolutely loved him last week at 2-5% ownership against a banged up 49ers’ defense and now he gets a significant matchup upgrade against the Bears. The Bears’ defense has been much better than the public gives them credit for, but on a small slate with a lot of mediocre quarterbacks, give me the solid value on a dual-threat quarterback with a condensed target share.

    Stack Options: Trey McBride, Michael Wilson
    Bring-Back Options: DJ Moore

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Geno Smith

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

  • Rachaad White ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD) – Just pure usage here. It’s hard to find anyone other than Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey who get 20+ touches a week. The Jaguars have given up over 160 rushing yards over the past three weeks.
  • Jonathan Taylor ($7,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Probably a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but a great price on DraftKings. It looks like Zack Moss will be out with the arm injury leading to a strong workload for the talented RB1 for the Colts. The Falcons’ defense ranks dead last in DVOA against opposing RBs and have given up over 110 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. This Falcons’ defense really misses Grady Jarrett. More of a cash game play for me at the current ownership.
  • Aaron Jones ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD) – Like Walker below, the prices on Aaron Jones (if AJ Dillon is OUT) are way too low for a prime matchup against the Carolina Panthers and their 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). This is an excellent pivot away from some of the chalk in the upper $6K range.
  • Bijan Robinson ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – If you can stomach it… GPP only.
  • Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Way too cheap on both outlets against a Titans’ defense that will likely be without key run stoppers Jack Gibbens, Luke Gifford, and of course, Jeffery Simmons. They’ve given up over 120 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks.
  • Chuba Hubbard ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) – Another great value for a running back getting 18+ touches on a weekly basis. Like last week, we will continue to pick on the Green Bay Packers’ run defense.
  • Roschon Johnson ($4,800 DK / $5,400 FD) – No D’Onta Foreman opens up a lot of value for rookie, Roschon Johnson.

Honorable Mention: Rachaad White, De’Von Achane, Tony Pollard, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ty Chandler

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

  • CeeDee Lamb ($9,200 DK / $9,400 FD) – The only consistent game in town for this Cowboys’ wide receiving core and gets a prime matchup against Kader Kohou. This is the highest total game on the slate by wide margin and we will want to make an effort to try to get a key contributor or two into our lineup if the salary cap allows.
  • Justin Jefferson ($8,100 DK / $9,200 FD) – The passing props for Nick Mullens are truly remarkably high and it looks like the DFS community is going to jam in Justin Jefferson this week. It is a fantastic matchup against the Lions’ and their heavy use of Cover-2. I’m fine if you want to follow the crowd and give Jefferson serious consideration in cash game lineups.
  • DJ Moore ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – The WR1 going up against the Arizona Cardinals’ secondary. Justin Fields tunnels in on DJ Moore and the volume alone is worth this price (on DraftKings specifically).
  • DK Metcalf ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – Absolutely fire up our boy DK Metcalf against this depleted Titans’ defense who we’ve attacked all year long. I love this spot for him and would anticipate his ownership is sub-10% due to all of the pay-up options on this slate. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate this week as the Titans’ will be without Amani Hooker and Sean Murphy-Bunting. In addition, Geno Smith is back.
  • Calvin Ridley ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Incredible value for the only healthy pass-catcher on the outside for the Jaguars against the pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay. He’s in play for all formats in NFL DFS this weekend.
  • Garrett Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,000 FD) – It’s gross, but the AETY Model still loves the value for Garrett Wilson against the worst secondary in the NFL despite the fact Trevor Siemian is the starting quarterback for the Jets.
  • Drake London ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – For whatever it’s worth, the AETY Model has nailed the big games for Drake London and it loves him again in Week 16. We always target the exterior pass-catchers going up against the Indianapolis Colts and we won’t stop this week despite the questionable quarterback play and coaching in Atlanta.
  • Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300 DK / $5,400 FD) – If Jayden Reed is ruled out, I would expect the DFS community and optimizers to jam in Dontayvion Wicks. I am OKAY with this move in cash games, but in GPP tournaments, I think this is a bit of a coming out party (in terms of value) for Malik Heath ($3,200 DK / $4,400 FD).
  • Michael Wilson ($3,700 DK / $5,100 FD) – 0% owned GPP dart-throw yet again this week. Marquise Brown is OUT for Week 16 and I’ll go right back to the well with the talented, big-bodied wideout. He blanked us last week but should have had 40+ receiving yards and a touchdown.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Amari Cooper, Jameson Williams, DJ Montgomery, Malik Heath

Tight-Ends

  • Trey McBride ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Absolute mis-price on DraftKings. What else do we need to see from Trey McBride. He’s producing like the next coming of Rob Gronkowski and this is a fantastic matchup in an up-paced game against Chicago.
  • Evan Engram ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – It looks like the theme of this article is to pay-up at the tight-end position this week. If Zay Jones is out, Evan Engram becomes the WR2 for this Jaguars’ offense against the Bucs’ secondary we love to attack. I’d probably prefer the savings of Jake Ferguson if you’re not playing Trey McBride.
  • David Njoku ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – I likely won’t get here in DFS lineups this week, but it’s hard to overlook the domination Njoku has shown on a weekly basis with Joe Flacco under center.
  • Jake Ferguson ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – Cheap, high-upside exposure to the highest total game on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts

Defense/Special Teams

  • Cleveland Browns
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • New York Jets
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Carolina Panthers

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

  • Justin Fields
  • Calvin Ridley
  • Chuba Hubbard
  • Trey McBride
  • Dontayvion Wicks (if Jayden Reed is OUT)

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

  • Kyler Murray
  • DK Metcalf
  • DJ Moore
  • Aaron Jones

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

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