The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Naucalpan, Mexico as the players face off in the WGC Mexico Championship.
Course: Golf Club De Chapultpec
Par: 71
Length: 7,345 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu (Narrow)
Greens: Poa (Fast) – Though it has been pointed out that the greens play more like Bent Grass according to @JBates_golf and @BPSnow11.
Past five winners: ’19 Johnson (-21), ’18 Mickelson (-16), ’17 Johnson (-14), ’16 Scott (-12), ’15 Johnson (-9). (Only the last three years was it played on the current course)
For a hole by hole breakdown, check out the PGA Tour website here.
The WGC Mexico Championship is a no cut event that has been held in Naucalpan, Mexico, just north of Mexico City. The golf course has narrow, tree lined fairways. The elevation above sea level (more then a mile above) make the course play shorter then the yardage would indicate. While the golfers that can drive the ball a mile tend to do well, the raise in elevation really brings in the shorter hitters as well.
While this WGC Mexico tournament is no birdie fest, it should play easier then the Genesis Invitational last week. Average winning score is around -15 and with a star studded field (72 players) there should be no short of excitement come Sunday afternoon.
With an average score setting laid out this week, let’s look at the golfers who have performed well in Stroked Gained Total over the last 12 rounds.
Ball striking, like most weeks, is a crucial part of the golfer’s game. With fairways and greens being smaller than tour average at the WGC Mexico, we’ll need golfers at the top of their game both off of the tee and approach. Here are the top golfers who have excelled in ball striking over the last 12 rounds.
While the course lists the greens as Poa, the idea that they play more like bent has been mentioned. Here are the top 10 golfers both on Poa and Bent as well as their baseline to begin with.
With all three course conditions applied, here are the top 10 golfers. If last week is any indication, you might see this list near the top of the leader board. At the Genesis Invitational , the top 10 included: eight cut makers, three top fives with both Kuchar (T2) and the winner Adam Scott.
The WGC Mexico has five holes that play extremely tough as they’re Par 4s that are 500+ yards. The elevation should help and you can think of them more as 450 yard Par 4, but having golfers that excel in this range could be a huge help. To narrow it down even further, I’m specifically looking at the 125 – 150 range for proximity.
Opportunity Gained will be factored in once again, from Fantasy National. While I think Bogey Avoidance holds some water at the WGC Mexico Championship, with a no cut event, I’m targeting birdie makers/fantasy point scorers (BOB/DK Points).
Here are the top players with all the combined stats from above.
I think looking at golfers that have length on their drive is a solid starting point but I wouldn’t rule out the shorter hitters all together. Perhaps use the distance as a tie breaker. The field is stacked despite some of the top name skipping this week. With that in mind, you’ll see golfers lower in salary then normal but just because they’re cheap doesn’t mean they’re a good play. No cut events are fun, because your roster is never dead but it can often be frustrating as the edge diminishes. I would recommend playing lite this week.
Course Setup
Average scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens (Bent grass feel)
Player Efficiencies
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 yards
BOB
Opportunity Gained
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the WGC Mexico Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National
The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour heads to Arizona as the players face off at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Par: 71
Length: 7,266 yards
Fairways: Bermuda, hard to hit.
Greens: Bermuda, larger than tour average.
Architect: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish
Past five winners: Fowler -17 (’19), Woodland -18 (’18), Matsuyama -17 (’17), Matsuyama -14 (’16), Koepka -15 (’15)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.
The Phoenix Open plays at the TPC Scottsdale course in Arizona. The average score has been around 16 under par and I don’t see that changing this year. While 16 under is a nice score, it’s not exactly a birdie fest and we’ll look to treat this course as an average scoring tournament. Here are the top 10 golfers that have performed the best over the last 24 rounds.
While fairways are tougher to hit here at the WMPO, landing in the rough isn’t all that bad. The distance over accuracy tends to be a more dominating factor. With this in mind we’ll look at golfers that perform well off of the tee.
The greens are Tifdwarf Bermuda with an overseeding of Rye. Golfers tend to have issues putting on this surface in the past. Here are the top 10 golfers who perform the best in the field on Bermuda.
Below are the to golfers that have performed well overall three course descriptions above.
The toughest holes on this course are Par 4s and fall in between 450 – 500 yards. On the flip side, the easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 550 – 600 yards. Being able to perform well on these holes with both birdies and avoiding bogeys will be crucial. Most approach shots come from the 150-175 range, so looking for golfers that perform well within that proximity is a good starting point.
GIR will show up here but I believe there is a bit of noise in the stat this week. The greens are rather large so it inflates its importance for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. As always I’ll include Opportunity Gained in the stat pool when selecting my golfers.
Here are the top golfers with the 6 stat fields being evenly weighted over the last 12 rounds.
I believe driving distance could be a solid direction to lean on when selecting golfers. Players that have played the course before tend to do better than incoming course rookies.
Average Scoring Course
Hard to hit fairways
Bermuda Greens
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 yards
Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
The proximity between 150 – 175 yards
Opportunity Gained
Ball Striking
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Phoenix Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open in Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!
Justin Thomas (DK $12,000, FD $12,300) – After JT’s latestwin in a playoff late Sunday at Kapalua, he’s listed as theVegas favorite at 9-2. Itwas a weird finish but he should contend again this week.
Webb Simpson (DK $11,100, FD $11,500) – Webb is now oneof the most consistent golfers on Tour and he’s an excellent fit for this track,where he finished fourth in 2018. I’ll have shares alongside Thomas.
Matt Kuchar (DK $9,900, FD $11,100) – Kuchar won here last year and also at El Camaleon in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in 2018 – an event that features a correlative coastal course with a similar feel. He’s a solid cash gameplay.
Charles Howell III (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Howell has a good history here and as a solid ball striker excels in many of our focus stat categories. He’s finished in the Top 15 three of his last four times here and is 5/5 on cuts since 2015.
Also consider: Patrick Reed (All formats), Collin Morikawa & AbrahamAncer (GPP only)
Corey Conners (DK $7,800, FD $8,900) – He finished tied for third here last year after a T39 in his debut, and I’ll be hammering him into a big chunk of my GPPs. The upside is there and he’s a good bet to make the weekend. I love him in all formats this week.
Chez Reavie (DK $8,400, FD $10,000) – He’s had a nice run here, finishing T3, T18, T8 in his last three tries. A near-lock to make the cut and a solid bet for a Top 25. It should be a cash game staple and GPP plug-n-play.
J.T. Poston (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Poston had a solid week playing in tough competition, and he’s going to be popular given his recent form and the fit at this layout. He’s a fine play in all formats this week – just keep an eye on his ownership in tournaments.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,900, FD $9,700) – Don’t forget about Munoz. I liked him last week and he’s a sneaky play again here – even after his T10 finish last year at this venue
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,600, FD $9,300) – I can’t give up on Grillo, who’s struggled with the flat stick but can be a little more aggressive here and is an elite ball-striker with loads of GPP upside.
Also consider: Brendan Todd, Kevin Kisner,Brian Stuard, Rory Sabbatini
Brian Gay (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Gayhad a breakthrough in 2018 and a solid 2019, and he looks to get the ballrolling with another Top 25 here – something he accomplished in 2017 and 2019at Waialae. His MC at the RSM could keep folks off, and he finished T14 at theMayakoba.
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – Kizzire’s recent form is trash, but Hawaii has treated him well the past few years. He’s an under-the-radar play who might just be the course horse we need to fit ion some studs.
Talor Gooch (DK $6,800, FD $8,200) – He’s GPP only as a value play with some upside, since he checks some of the key boxes, but not a guy who’s cash-viable.
Jimmy Walker (DK $6,800, FD $8,500) – It’s been a while since we’ve heard Walker discussed, but he’s a 2x winner here and this type, of course, is his bag, baby! He made the cut here last year after two misses in 2017 and 2018.
Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200, FD $7,100) – Old Man Kelly is super cheap and he’s a former winner with three top 15s here over the past five years. Dude loves this course.
More value golfers for GPPs: Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk, DanielBerger, Keegan Bradley, Scott Piercy, Harry Higgs
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500, FD $11,300) – He hasn’t played well at this venue, which is a change from last week’s brainless fade of Xander Schauffele (At least I take some chances with my fades). Matsuyama played well in October but he’s a little too pricey for me given his track record in Hawaii.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,400, FD $10,800) – I expect him to be popular but I’m not ready to go overboard just yet. Niemann is a first-timer here and I prefer some of the guys who are a little cheaper.
JustinThomas ($11,200)
AbrahamAncer ($9,000)
J.T.Poston ($8,100)
BrianGay ($7,200)
ScottPiercy ($7,100)
JerryKelly ($6,200)
($400 left)
WebbSimpson ($11,100)
CoreyConners ($8,900)
ChezReavie ($8,400)
EmilianoGrillo ($7,600)
KyleStanley ($7,000)
PattonKizzire ($6,900)
($100 left)
JustinThomas ($12,000)
J.T.Poston ($8,100)
SebastianMunoz ($7,900)
RorySabbatini ($7,600)
KeeganBradley ($7,200)
ChrisKirk ($6,700)
($100 left)
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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re fishing for some finecatches at the RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia!
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Webb Simpson (DK $11,600, FD $11,800) – Simpson finished third here last year and loves the venue. He’s the tourney favorite and my pick for winning the whole thing.
Kevin Kisner (DK $9,800, FD$11,000) – Kisner is the tournament’s all-timeearnings leader with a win here in 2015 among four top-10s in the five times he’splayed here. I’ll be loading up in all formats.
Charles Howell, III (DK $10,400, FD $11,400) – Howell is defending his title and had a top 10 in 2015. He’s worth spending up for and checks all the boxes at this venue.
Billy Horschel (DK $11,000, FD $11,600) – He played here once and finished second in a playoff. I know we faded him last week and he finished T8, and I won’t make that same mistake again.
Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – Kucharfinished in the top 15 last week and has racked up five top-25s at RSM. He should contend at this Bermudavenue – where he’s a resident – and is a solid bet to make the cut despitemissing in 2016.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,200, FD $10,800) – Schefflerdoesn’t have any experience here, but that hasn’t mattered much here. Therookie is 6-for-6 with two top-10s and another pair of top-20s. He finished T18at Mayakoba last week.
Also consider: Harris English, Aaron Wise, Adam Hadwin, ZachJohnson
Austin Cook (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – Cook won here in 2017 and finished T11 here last year with Dominic Bozzelli. He’s got a couple of Top 20s this season mixed in with some MCs. Worth a look in GPPs.
Denny McCarthy (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – He checks a very important box in our focus stats – Birdie-or-Better % – and his talents might not get noticed in this large field. A solid off-the-radar play.
Brian Gay (DK $8,800, FD $10,000) – He has a good feel for the course and its small greens, and he’s a fairway maven with solid course history and good form (6-for-6 this season with two Top 10s among four Top 25s).
Brian Harman (DK $7,900, FD $9,900)– The “other” Brian isone of the local residents dubbed the “Sea Island Mafia,” though none of themhas actually won the thing. Could this be the year? Harman finished T4 twoyears ago and has three top-20s in his first three events this season.
Russell Henley (DK $8,500, FD $9,800) –He’s technically not part of the Sea Island Mafia-like Kuchar, Harman, and ZJ, but he’s one of the UGA alums to notch a top 10 here. In fact – he’s got three top 10s here. His MC in 2018 could keep some folks off him.
ChrisKirk (DK $7,600, FD $9,400) –I’mrooting for Kirk, who played well in his return last week and is the courserecord holder at Plantation with a T4, T4 and a win in three of his last sixhere. He’s perfect at this price point in GPPs, though he could get chalky.
Harry Higgs (DK $7,900, FD $9,900) – Citedfatigue for his mini-slump before the surge in Bermuda. That little bit of restseems to have helped him as he’s now finished runner-up and T33 in his last twostarts. He’s back on track and was one of the hottest golfers on the Korn FerryTour, coming down the stretch last season. Someone that should be much higheron the draft board.
Also consider: Dylan Fritelli, Russell Knox, VaughnTaylor, Rory Sabbatini, Lanto Griffin
Brian Stuard (DK $7,400, FD $9,600) – Another Brian! Stuard is sporting monster form right now as he’s made six consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour – something we’ll need this week in such a big field. He’s also racked up four top 30 finishes in that span including a T4 at the Shriners, and he finished 22nd at the 2017 RSM Classic.
Kevin Streelman, (DK$7,400, FD $9,500) – He’s got a checkered history at Sea Island,with just one Top 20 and a couple of missed cuts. Nobody will be on him thisweek and his accuracy should be considered a great strength at this relatively shortcourse. A boom-or-bust GPP play.
Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200, FD $8,700)– We haven’t heard much from Stanley lately, but he’s 2-for-2here and we need to find some value. Stanley gives us that along with Top 25upside.
Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100, $9,200) – Not much form to speak of, but he finished T7 with Kisner and ZJ last year. He’s a longshot to make the Top 10 in consecutive tries here, but don’t count him out.
David Hearn (DK $7,000, FD $9,000) – Hearn’s record at Sea Island is impeccable, and he’s made five of six cuts this season dating back to the Greenbrier, including a T8 at Bermuda. But will he fly under the radar?
Doc Redman (DK $6,600, FD $7,500) – We’ll throw out his MC last week because Mayakoba does not smile on first-timers and give him some edge because of his obvious talent and ball-striking.
More value golfers for GPPs: Adam Schenk, Boo Weekley, PatrickRodgers, Henrik Norlander, Dominic Bozzelli, Sepp Straka, Robert Streb, BrendanSteele, David Lingmerth
Si Woo Kim (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – He finished T18 here in 2015 but hasn’t had much success at Sea Island, and the price drop to $7,300 could make him somewhat popular despite an MC last week. No Top 25s yet this season, and I’m not seeing the upside.
Kevin Chappell (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – Chappell has played well here in the past, but he still doesn’t look right after returning from his back injury and isn’t quite ready to contend. A lot of folks will be drawn to the value based on his course history, but we can safely avoid him this week.
Alex Noren (DK $9,300, FD $10,900) – “This wayward traveler maycome from fine Stockholm stock, but his recently packed travel itinerary mayhave his sea legs a little tired after such a busy schedule. The Sea Island Mafiais a welcoming gang of scalawags, but this Swedish fish may not be sweet enoughto notch a Top 10 this week.” – Justin “Rusty” Seastrum
It’s great having my boy “Trusty Rusty” fillingin for Spades – who’s taking the week off after recommending a fade of Billy Horscheland his T8 at the Mayakoba. I’m on board with Rusty’s take on Noren, especiallybecause he hasn’t been very good atthe events that he’s been playing all over the globe – and he’s not worth theprice.
Webb Simpson($11,600)
Brian Gay($8,800)
Austin Cook($7,800)
Harry Higgs($7,700)
David Hearn ($7,000)
HenrikNorlander ($6,900)
Webb Simpson($11,600)
Charles HowellIII ($10,400)
Kyle Stanley ($7,200)
Patrick Rodgers($7,000)
Doc Redman($6,900)
Robert Streb ($6,800)
Kevin Kisner ($9,800)
ScottieScheffler ($9,200)
Brian Gay($8,800)
Chris Kirk ($7,600)
Brian Stuard ($7,400)
Peter Uihlein($7,100)
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This week we’ll look back at WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and get you ready for the upcoming Wyndham Championship right here on Win Daily Sports.
Brooks Koepka winning a non-major? Yup, he was a shot behind McIlroy heading into Sunday but it did’t take long for Koepka to take over. For every misstep that McIlroy had, Koepka came through shining. The biggest surprise was his putter. He gained a whopping 9.3 strokes putting on the field. As if Koepka needed another weapon in his arsenal.
Right before the tournament kicked off I suggested that I’ll never play Brooks in a non major. One tournament in and he’s already beat me. Granted the top guys could always win, he did putt lights out. I do not know if he wins without his flat stick getting NBA Jam hot though. Without the winner in my personal pool I needed my other guys to play strong. They all pretty much did until Sunday when they shot a combined plus three. Thank you Mr. Wallace and Mr. Olesen. Nonetheless, we move to the Wyndham Championship.
Course: SedgeField CC
Par: 70
Length: 7,127 Yards
Greens: Bermuda
Fairways: Narrower than tour average
Architect: Donald Ross
For a hole by hole breakdown, please visit the PGA website here.
The Wyndham Championship is played in Greensboro, North Carolina. The tournament was founded 81 years ago as the Greater Greensboro Open. It wasn’t until 2007 when Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over as title sponsor and changed the name.
Each year the winning score is around -20. Here is the top 10 golfers on easy scoring relative to par courses.
Despite the narrower fairways they tend to be easy to hit, as long as the golfer is accurate. Lets look at the Top 10 golfers in scoring for easy to average hitting fairways.
Like last week this course has bermuda greens. The golfers below represent the Top 10 in putting on bermuda.
The same faces tend to show up towards the top of the leaderboard. Here are the Top 10 in cumulative strokes gained at the Wyndham Championship.
As always it’s always nice to check and see who’s coming in with excellent form. The chart below illustrates the Top 10 golfers in cumulative strokes gained over the last six events.
Out of the five charts above, three players show up four out of five times. They’re Simpson, Matsuyama and Glover. There is no surprise that two of the top golfers in the field are represented but Glover is on there as well. One thing to note about Glover is that the one he’s missing on is course history at the Wyndham Championship (20th).
Here is the scorecard for SledgeField and how each hole plays to par.
First thing that stands out to me is the birdie rate on Par 5s from 500 – 550 yards. Next is the amount of holes between the range of 400 – 450 yards.
Going back to the scoring, Par 3s at 175 yards. Not only are the Par 3s counted in the range but it’s also has the most approach shots. Last but not least, Opportunities Gained.
In my early research it feels like it’s a three man race between Simpson, Matsuyama and Snedeker. If I had to decide right now, I’m going with Matsuyama.
Course Setup
Easy to score relative to par
Easy to average hitting fairways
Bermuda Greens
Player Efficiencies
Par 5 scoring from 500 – 550 yards
Par 4 scoring from 400 – 450 yards
Opportunities Gained
Proximity from 150 – 175 yards
Par 3 scoring from 150 – 175 yards
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 20 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.
Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.
Stats source: FantasyNational
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