Before getting into our betting tips for the Valspar Championship, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of the Copperhead course, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind The Players Championship golf betting tips below.
You can find my latest profit and loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips
Updated with best pricing Tuesday 19 March 23:59 ET
Suggested Staking
Tony Finau – Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Doug Ghim
2u E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1u E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +250 (Bet365)
Adam Schenk
1u E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +320 (Bet365)
Andrew Putnam – Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips Best Value
1u E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +320 (Bet365)
Ryo Hisatsune
1u E/W +9000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +350 (Bet365)
Alexander Bjork
0.5u E/W +15000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +500 (William Hill/Unibet)
And
2u Top 40 +210 (Unibet)
Valspar Championship Betting Player Profiles
For the most part, I am willing to take on the top of the betting board this week. Although Xander rates out very well on approach over 200+ yards and is clearly the class in the field, he looks priced short enough at +750. I also hold concerns over his ability to close out a victory, having not won now since July 2022. After a heart-breaking finish at The Players Championship, where he again missed some relatively easy birdie chances to at least make a play-off, I can leave him off the Valspar Championship betting card this week.
Burns is far too shorts in markets off the back of his excellent course history. Thomas and Spieth both look close enough to their best, although it is hard to argue either represents much value at +1400 and +1800 respectively. That leaves Brian Harman as the other at the top of the board that held the most appeal for me.
Much akin to Schauffele, I wonder whether he may need some time to recover from a draining week when in contention at The Players. Harman’s strongest approach comes from under 150 yards. Although he is still positive in the 150+ yard approach buckets, I’d like some stronger performance in that metric for the price. He does hold good form on comp courses and a prior 5th here in 2022, meaning I considered going right back to him this week.
Tony Finau – Valspar Championship Betting Tips Favourite
Instead, I will lead out with Tony Finau who can be found at +2500.
You don’t have to go back too far when Finau was regularly included in the Top 10 golfers in the world. I believe he is being perhaps harshly judged at the moment and playing a lot better than the public give him credit for.
Since December 2023, he has teed it up 8 times and finished in the Top 20 on 4 occasions. The other 4 tournaments he has finished 25th, 38th, 45th, and 47th. Hardly world-beating, but also not as dreadful as some would make out.
Finau is the best in the world over the last 12 months for SG: APP on iron shots over 200+ yards. He is 1st for SG: APP and 3rd for SG: T2G in this field over the last 6 months. He previously finished 5th here in 2017 and not played here since 2018, after which he did elevate his game. Simply, we are yet to see him when he has been playing at his best when on this golf course.
Correlated form can be found with 4 Top 25 finishes at TPC River Highlands and a record at Muirfield Village with includes finishes of 8th, 8th, 11th, and 13th in 7 starts.
Most promising is the recent putting improvements. Changes to his putting stroke were noticed at the Mexico Open, where he gained strokes putting for the second time in 10 tournaments. He backed that up again last week. If those putting changes have stuck, he may deliver a 7th PGA Tour title imminently.
Doug Ghim
Likely to be a popular selection this week, I prefer to get my exposure to Doug Ghim in the Valspar Championship betting markets rather than DFS.
Bang in form, The Players Championship 16th placed finish was his 5th consecutive tournament hitting that mark or better. This is probably the best course fit of the lot.
Ghim is the 8th most accurate driver in this field over the last 12 months. He also excels in approach shots over 200+ yards, which is his strongest approach bucket followed by the 150-200 yard range.
Notably, the putter finally looks to have come right. He has now gained in SG: PUTT for 4/5 tournaments with the 5th tournament being a very small loss of -0.07. Essentially, he putted at field average.
It is perhaps easy to forget that Ghim was in the same college class as Hovland and Morikawa. He actually beat them both to the 2018 Ben Hogan Award as the best college golf player in the USA that year. The other two went on to achieve better things, and undoubtedly it has not been the professional career that Doug Ghim wished for. He looks very close to finally fulfilling that potential. I’ll also be keeping a close eyes on his odds in the next two tournaments, being played in Texas where he went to college.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Another who has yet to fully meet his potential, Bezuidenhout showed much promise on the DP World Tour before moving to the PGA Tour in 2020.
Included in that DP World Tour career was a win at the Andalucia Masters. Valderrama should show strong betting correlation to the Valspar Championship. It is another narrow, tree-lined golf course. Driving accuracy is imperative for success there, as is long iron approach play.
Additionally, Bezuidenhout made my honourable mentions last week at The Players Championship at 100/1. The South African finished in 13th at TPC Sawgrass whilst ranking 4th for SG: APP in a classy field, mirroring his 13th place result there in 2023. He ranks 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months, 15th for SG: PUTT, and 5th for SG: TOTAL.
He may like this course even better. Of those with over 50 strokes recorded, Bezuidenhout is the 2nd best in this field for SG: APP over 200+ yards in 2024. That is just ahead of Xander Schauffele and narrowly behind Tony Finau. He looks a bet at anything 40/1 or longer.
Adam Schenk
Schenk was hot property in 2023, before falling off the radar thus far in 2024. That largely has been down to some consistently poor approach play to start the year.
He may have found that again last week. A 19th placed finish at The Players was impressive, where he finally gained on approach including ranking 25th and 10th in rounds 2 and 3 respectively. Notably, he was also 7th in the field for driving accuracy last week suggesting that his ball-striking is rounding into form.
Schenk’s suitability for the Copperhead course was noted in 2023. Beyond the runner-up finish here, where he had also finished 18th in 2021, he matched that with a 7th place finish at The Memorial tournament in a signature event.
A superb year resulted in an excellent FedEx Cup playoff run, finishing 6th at the FedEx St Jude and 9th in the season ending Tour Championship. Both are far from the worst course comps for what is required this week. Ranking in the top 20 over the last 12 months in the field for SG: APP over 200+ yards, look for another performance from Schenk this week.
Andrew Putnam – Valspar Championship Betting Best Value
Putnam has been absolutely striping it on approach as of late. An 8th place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational came on a golf course that is really too long for him. He was 4th in that signature event for SG: APP. Backing that up, he finished 17th for SG: APP at The Players Championship.
A 10th earliest this season at Wai’alae Country Club is a reasonable comp course as to what should be required this week. Additionally, a 5th in 2023 at Muirfield is joined by a 17th there in 2019 and a 13th at the Travelers Championship in 2021 to make a resounding case.
His course form here, or lack thereof with 3/3 on missed cuts, should be read in some context. In 2022, he arrived here with form of MC-48-MC-MC. During 2021, he arrived after 3 consecutive missed cuts. And in 2018, his rookie season, he had lead in form of 54-MC-MC.
As such, he is likely a little sneaky this week. He ranks out 14th for driving accuracy, 6th for SG: APP, and 22nd for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 12 months. Additionally, he ranks 12th in this field for SG: APP from 200+ yards. I love him both in DFS and Valspar Championship betting markets.
Ryo Hisatsune
We round out our Valspar Championship betting tips with two former DP World Tour players.
I have spoken about Hisatsune a number of times in both these pages and on the PGA Draftcast. Hisatsune is just 21 years old and looks an immense talent. In my opinion, he heads the list of candidates most likely to have a Tom Kim type breakout season.
6th in the 2023 ZOZO Championship came behind fellow accurate drive Collin Morikawa on a tree-lined golf course. Likewise, 2023 DP World Tour finishes of 15th at The Belfry, 13th at the Omega European Masters, and 10th at the Soudal Open bodes well. The win at the Cazoo Open de France came on a golf course which asks similar questions in a different way. Frustratingly, I had included him in my DP World Tour tips for the three tournaments prior to his breakthrough victory.
The start of his first full PGA Tour season has been a mixed bag. He has displayed upside, and mainly at similar courses, such as a 30th at the Sony Open and 11th at the American Express. He has now gained on SG: APP for 5/6 of his most recent tournament starts, as well as 6 straight events for driving accuracy. A missed cut at The Players is better than initial glance, being right on the number and technically gaining strokes on the field. That almost always means a player ended up on the wrong side of a weather draw.
Hisatsune is likely the epitome of a high ceiling but rock bottom floor this week. As such, we’ve staked aggressively. We recommend a straight on the E/W and Top 20 rather than delving into Top 40 markets. He could go big or go home.
Alexander Bjork
Finally, another DP World Tour golfer who has made my selections often.
2023 could only be described as frustrating for Bjork. He again failed to record a victory. He also finished in the Top 5 in an absurd 20% of his tournament starts and in the Top 20 in 56% of them.
Bjork has lost on driving accuracy to the field in just one instance since July 2022. That is a 38 tournament stretch. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 15th in this tournament for SG: APP over 200+ yards. That combination of driving accuracy and long approach metrics sees him spike in my model.
Some of Bjork’s best performances have come on correlated courses. He holds a 4th at Valderrama and was 8th at The Belfry in 2023. He also finished 4th in last year’s Soudal Open, a course where he also finished 23rd in his only other start on that track. A runner-up finish at the Omega European Masters when within our tips came behind only one Ludvig Aberg.
The question comes whether he can translate that form to the PGA Tour. But, that is why we are getting the price we are. A last start 47th came when in the Top 35 for SG: APP and 2nd for driving accuracy at the Cognizant Classic. PGA National tends to favour mid irons over long irons. Of promise, he gained strokes putting on similar greens in the Palm Beaches. This course should be an even better fit.
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