Last year, we successfully tipped Taylor Moore at 70/1 for our preview of the 2023 Valspar Championship. Let’s find the winner at the Copperhead course again this week!
The Players Championship absolutely lived up to its billing last week, producing perhaps the most enthralling tournament of the PGA Tour season thus far. It was another great week for our selections as well. We tipped Brian Harman at 80/1 who finished just one shot off Scottie Scheffler. He locked in a full place at +1600 and a Top 20 at +275. Hideki Matsuyama at 35/1 wound up in 6th, cashing a full place at +700. As sexy as picking the outright winner of a golf tournament is, both of those plays had better returns than picking the World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler.
We then went 5/6 for our main selections in the Round 4 matchups. Although disappointing to just miss a huge multi at around +4000, it was again a fabulous return on our 2 Ball best bets.
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Certainly, this golf course is no pushover and a comprehensive preview is imperative if we are to find the winner of the Valspar Championship in back-to-back years.
The only holes that played under par in 2023 were the four par 5s. Sam Burns, who defended his title here in 2022 then finished 6th in 2023, ranked 11th and 7th in Par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour in both the years he won the Valspar Championship.
Ideally, golfers will be long and straight off the tee here. If you were to sacrifice one, it would be driving distance. The Copperhead golf course consistently ranks in the top 3 most difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour. We also see one of the Top 5 reductions in driving distance on this golf course. This is a factor of golfers clubbing down off the tee in order to find the safety of the fairway.
A disproportionate number of shots on approach occur from over 200+ yards, and this was one of the key metrics that helped us find winner Taylor Moore in 2023. Notably, all the par 3s play at 195 yards or longer.
There are some interesting notes from the greenkeepers this week, which mirror what we saw here in 2023:
Accuracy has a strong correlation to success whenever you preview the Valspar Championship. With heavy rain in Florida to start 2024 and the rough grown out, expect the rough to be even more juicy and thick than previously.
Finally, a note on SG: ATG. Previously, this has been key to success in any Copperhead golf course analysis. However, do note the move of the intermediate fringe in for the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. This sees a reduction in expected output from short-game. Essentially, a tighter lie allows more creativity of shot around the green. With the thick rough moving closer to the playing surface, this takes some of the selection out of play. It leaves hacking the ball at as the sole way to return the ball to play. Therefore, around the green may play less of a factor than the historical metrics suggest.
Importantly, do note that prior course form provides less weighting towards future success compared to other PGA Tour venues. The reasons for this are two-fold. Firstly, this has previously been a weaker field. This results in a higher rate of turnover year on year compared to other courses. Secondly, the volatile nature of the Copperhead golf course provides for a wider range of outcomes. Sam Burns may fly in the face of that statement, but he is the exception rather than the rule.
Correlated course form can be found at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Host of The Memorial tournament, the golf course is tree-lined with a similar average length of par 4/5. It ranks in the top 5 on the PGA Tour both for missed fairway penalty and rough penalty. We also experience a large reduction in driving distance on that golf course, which allows us to target the longer iron approach play which is imperative to success this week.
TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers Championship, provides another nice correlation. It is a course where driving accuracy again reigns supreme.
On the DP World Tour, tree-lined accuracy based golf courses like Valderrama and PGA Catalunya come to mind. The Belfry and Rinkven are also courses where the combination of driving accuracy and long iron approach prove predictive.
As regular readers of these pages will note, we do weight weather predictions heavily within our modelling. Weather could prove pivotal in any preview of the Valspar Championship this week. We tend to have a good track record of getting this correct.
We correctly forecast that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would end in a 54 hole tournament, and I will make a similar prediction this week. I do think that, should current forecasts stay true, this will either be a 54 hole event or (more likely) another Monday finish is on the cards.
Friday is the main issue in this respect. A lot of rain is forecast, with potential thunderstorm risks. The winds also look very heavy, gusting to over 40 mph during Friday.
On current forecasts, I suspect that we see delays Friday. This should result in an advantage to Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times receiving an advantage. Those set to go out Friday afternoon could well see their rounds delayed into Saturday. Saturday morning does still look windy, but much less sever than on Friday.
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If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valspar Championship, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article posted here or live now in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Valspar Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
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