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Tyler Lockett

Monday Night Football DFS Week 10 Showdown Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

Welcome to another Monday night preview article. It will come along with a video to break down Monday Night Football in all things DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian play of the game. So who is ready for some Monday night action between the 49ers and Seahawks? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Monday Night Football Showdown Contest.

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https://youtu.be/7yIcybEL4aw

Value and Punt Plays

Tight end Ross Dwelley ($2,000) is the easy punt play in lineup builds with George Kittle doubtful for Monday night football. Dwelley should see the lion’s share of snaps Monday against Seattle. His price is too cheap for a starting player with significant playing time. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and fifth-most receiving yards to tight end position this season. Dwelley ran just one fewer route than Kittle in Week 9.

Jaron Brown ($2,200) is interesting as he has three touchdown receptions in his last two games played versus the 49ers. Receiver David Moore ($1,200) has seen his snaps increase since Week 6. He has gone from 22.9%, 41.7%, and 49.2%, all the way up to 54.7% in Week 9. Brown’s snaps have decreased over that timespan.

Favorite Stack

With the 49ers favored by 6.5 points playing at home, the best stack to build with is quarterback Russell Wilson ($11,400). Wilson has been playing at an MVP level this season. In his last two games versus the 49ers, Wilson has thrown for a total of six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The obvious stacks to build Wilson around are the top Seahawks passing weapons in Tyler Lockett ($10,400), DK Metcalf ($7,800), and Chris Carson ($8,600).

Now Lockett and Metcalf both have tougher matchups with the 49ers allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the receiver position this season. I would prefer Lockett. He has scored at least 12 fantasy points in seven games this season. In seven of those games, Metcalf has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of them. You should have at least one build with both receivers, but I would not force Metcalf in. Worth noting Lockett has not surpassed 65 receiving yards in his last four games versus the 49ers.

Adding Carson makes a ton of sense because it gives you total market equity of the Seahawks potential touchdowns. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to backs over the past two weeks and will be without starting linebacker Kwon Alexander. I like Carson as an option in the captain spot because of his floor usage in the passing game and his touchdown upside. He also averages more points on the road (19) than at home (16). Going heavy Seahawks on offense I believe is the right play and bringing it back with Emmanuel Sanders ($10,200) and/or Deebo Samuel ($4,800). Seattle has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers over the past two weeks.

49ers Running Game

You will also want to have shares of 49ers running backs Tevin Coleman ($8,200) and Matt Breida ($6,200). After multi-game absences, left tackle Joe Staley (lower leg), fullback Kyle Juszczyk (knee) and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee) all returned to practice Tuesday and have a shot at returning for an important divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. If these guys return you need to increase your exposure to the 49ers running game. Both Coleman and Breida have scored significantly more points at home than on the road this season. Breida has averaged 16 fantasy points per game at home versus just 9.4 on the road. Meanwhile, Coleman has averaged 28.3 fantasy points per game at home versus 8.9 on the road.

Contrarian Plays

Without Alexander, the 49ers could find themselves extremely vulnerable versus tight ends. According to PFF, Alexander against the pass ranked eighth in pass coverage and second in passer rating against. That is why the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Things get more complicated here though because the Seahawks have multiple tight ends that could be featured or used. Jacob Hollister ($4,600) is the more obvious play with Luke Willson ($200) nothing more than a punt. Hollister has run the third-most routes (68) on the Seahawks over the past three weeks.

Kicker Chase McLaughlin ($3,600) is the backup kicker to Robbie Gould who is going to miss this game. The 49ers rank fourth in the NFL in field goal attempts per game (2.5), and Seattle allows the fourth-most field goal attempts per game (2.4). Previously with the Chargers, McLaughlin averaged seven points per game in four starts.

A lot of people will play Jimmy Garoppolo ($11,000) because of his matchup on paper trumps Wilson’s. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks. But with the 49ers always wanting to run the ball (57.00% run play selection at home), I do not think he has the upside. He’s a fade for me. Seahawks DST ($3,200) is not good but could be a nice contrarian play. The 49ers at home have been averaging two giveaways per game.

In terms of Josh Gordon ($5,400), there’s a chance he does not even play, but I am not even sure what is ceiling would even be in this game. Coming off an ankle injury he is an easy fade for me.

Image via Brook Ward

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5 years ago 0 comments

Week 8 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: Hop Until You Can’t Stop, Again!

MLBMovingAvg 5 years ago

written by MLBMovingAvg

Last week’s article went well but it was nothing special. We got a gem from DeAndre Hopkins but our punt plays did absolutely nothing. That’s going to happen with punt plays though and it’s impossible to get them right every week. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 8 wide receiver breakdown.

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Week 8 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)

Whenever someone treats you right, it’s silly to turn your back on them. Hopkins was the star of the article last week and we’re going to go right back to the well here. While the nine receptions for 106 yards and a TD is nice, what I like is his usage. In fact, Hopkins now has at least 12 targets in back-to-back games and is second among all WRs, playing 97 percent of his team’s snaps. Those usage numbers should only go up with Will Fuller out for the next few weeks due to a hammy strain. Facing Oakland is the icing on the cake, with the Raiders allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.

Tyler Lockett, SEA at ATL

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,200)

Using players against the Falcons has become a cheat code. This defense is allowing 31.9 points per game which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. That’s led to them posting a 26^th OPRK against wide receivers so far this season which is big news for Russell Wilson and his top receiving option. Lockett is just that, leading the Seahawks in catches, yards, targets, and snaps. That’s why he’s averaging 17 DK points per game and that’s bad news for this horrific defense.

Week 8 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Kenny Golladay, DET vs. NYG

DK ($6,400) FD ($6,700)

Golladay is coming off his worst game of the season but a matchup against Xavier Rhoades will kill any WR’s value. Prior to that, Golladay was one of the league leaders, averaging nearly 20 DK points per game. It’s no surprise when you consider his usage, with Golladay totaling at least eight targets in each of his first five games. That’s really all you can ask for against a defense like this, with the Giants owning a 24^th OPRK against wide receivers this season while surrendering the fifth-most yards in football.

John Brown, BUF vs. PHI

DK ($5,900) FD ($5,900)

This FanDuel price is truly ridiculous. Brown has been performing at a $7,000 level all season long on FanDuel and they’re simply slow to react to his breakout. The simple fact is, this dude is the focal point of this passing game. That’s evident when you see that he’s leading the Bills with an 86 percent snap share and a 22 percent target share. That usage is backed up by brilliant production, with Brown accruing 473 receiving yards this season, a Top-20 total. The best part about all of this is a matchup with the Eagles secondary, with Philly allowing the most fantasy points and yardage to opposing wide receivers this season.

D.K. Metcalf, SEA at ATL

DK ($5,000) FD ($6,600)

We already professed our love for the Seahawks in the Lockett write-up and that’s going to make it tough to fade Metcalf too. The physical attributes from Metcalf are truly special, setting records at the combine for strength and speed. That talent is one thing but he’s showing flashes of that on the field as well. In fact, Metcalf is averaging 10.7 DK points per game over his last three fixtures, becoming a much bigger part of this offense. His nine targets in Week 7 actually marked a career-high and that directly correlated with the Will Dissly injury. Look for Metcalf’s targets to continue to rise over the second half of the season, as he could become a red-zone threat too. Not to mention, he’s already playing 77 percent of the team’s snaps and that could rise the more he gets used to this offense.

Week 8 Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Corey Davis, TEN vs. TB

DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)

Davis is honestly one of the most frustrating players in fantasy but any top WR for a team is worth a shot at this price. That’s just what Davis is, leading the Titans in snap share, targets and total catches. That’s led to Davis averaging 13 DK points per game over his last four fixtures, which is way too good for a player in this price range. Inserting Ryan Tannehill behind center has apparently revived this passing game too, as his 312 passing yards in Week 7 is easily the best mark of the season. That’s terrifying for a terrible secondary like this, with Tampa owning a 28^th OPRK against WRs this season.

Kenny Stills, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,700) FD ($5,700)

Hopkins is an easy bet to succeed but Stills is the sneaky guy in this offense. With Will Fuller (hamstring) out, Stills could be in line for his biggest workload. If you take out a game where he got injured, Stills actually has eight catches for 194 combined yards over his last two games. More importantly, he played 94 percent of the teams snaps last week and it’s clear they want him in that number-two spot while keeping Keke Coutee in the slot. If you get a WR playing this many snaps against a defense like this at this sort of price, you don’t fade him!

Auden Tate, CIN at LAR

DK ($4,200) FD ($5,400)

Tate just continues to be disrespected by these DFS sites and it’s hard to understand why. Over his last five games, Tate has never played fewer than 89 percent of the team’s snaps. That’s led to him collecting at least six targets in all five of those fixtures, amassing 40 total targets in that span. That’s a monstrous role from a player priced this cheaply and this matchup is better than it looks on the surface. While Tyler Boyd will be suctioned up by Jalen Ramsey, Tate should feast on this otherwise subpar secondary. That’s especially big considering Cincy should be throwing a lot, entering this matchup as a 13-point underdog.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Week

DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 Receptions

Anytime someone has 12 targets in back-to-back games, they’re a great bet for at least seven catches. It happens to be a guy with the best hands in the league and he could see even more targets with Will Fuller now sidelined. The matchups isn’t too shabby either.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 4 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: Lockett Down

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

We had a brilliant week for our last article, hitting on players like Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor, D.J. Moore and Demarcus Robinson. That’s really all we can ask for from our guys and we’re going to look to keep that momentum rolling here. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 4 wide receiver options.

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Week 4 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Keenan Allen, SD at MIA

DK ($7,600) FD ($8,100)

Allen is the top receiver in fantasy right now and that’s terrifying news for the Dolphins defense. Let’s start with that matchup, with Miami ranked dead-last in yardage allowed and points surrendered. That’s horrific and it makes Allen the clear-cut top option for cash game receiver of the day. The numbers from the Chargers WR are simply absurd, with Allen collecting 29 receptions for 404 yards and three TDs through the first three games. More importantly, he leads the NFL with 42 total targets, which is amazingly nine targets above the player in second. Any player getting 14 targets per game against a defense like this is a recipe for raging success.

Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. TB

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,000)

While there are a million options on this offense, it’s becoming quite clear that Kupp is the apple of Jared Goff’s eye. It seemed like he was making every reception in the Sunday Night game and it’s no surprise when you see his 11 receptions for 102 yards and a TD. That followed up a 120-yard gem in Week 2, as he now has 32 targets in three games, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

What adds to his intrigue is the fact that he’s one of the league leaders in red-zone targets dating back to last season and it’s quite evident that Goff just adores Kupp. Getting to face Tampa Bay is nothing we need to worry about either, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs last season. While they’ve been better this year, they’ve faced horrible passing attacks like the Giants, 49ers and Panthers, which means they’re seriously due for some negative regression.

Week 4 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Tyler Lockett, SEA at ARI

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,600)

Lockett is coming off one of the best games of his career, accumulating 11 receptions for 154 yards and a TD in the Week 3 loss to the Saints. That gem showed the sort of potential that this dude has, as he now has double-digit catches in back-to-back games. That tells us that Russell Wilson really trusts this kid and he should be well on his way to a career year with Doug Baldwin now out of the picture. The best part about this play is his matchup though, facing an Arizona team without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford. Those are the Cardinals two best corners and that’s a major reason why they rank 30^th in total defense.

Demarcus Robinson/Mecole Hardman, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,700)/ DK ($5,100) FD ($6,500)

It’s hard to pick between these two guys, so let’s just get both of them in here. With Tyreek Hill sidelined, these two have skyrocketed into fantasy relevance. Patrick Mahomes is a major reason why, as he can make any wide receiver look like a Hall-of-Famer. That’s what Robinson and Hardman look like right now, with Robinson averaging 28.6 DK points over the last two games while Hardman is averaging 17.3 DK points per game in that same span.

That would make me believe that Robinson is the better option but both of these guys are in play. The snap count tells us that Robinson is the superior option too, playing 65.6 snaps per game since Hill went down while Hardman is averaging 50 snaps per game in that span. That’s bad news for this struggling secondary, with the Lions owning a 26^th OPRK against WRs according to DraftKings.

Week 4 Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Terry McLaurin, WSH at NYG

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,300)

These prices are downright insulting. The man known as “Scary Terry” has been special in his first three games in the NFL and it appears that he’s the focal point of this Washington offense. That’s evident by the fact that he leads this team with 16 catches for 257 yards and three touchdowns. That alone is impressive but he’s also leading the way with 24 targets while playing over 90 percent of the team’s snaps. That’s incredible usage from a rookie and it’s becoming clear that he’s Case Keenum’s best friend. That sort of usage pairs beautifully with this matchup, with the Giants allowing the most passing yards in the NFL this season.

Sterling Shepard, NYG at WSH

DK ($5,800) FD ($6,500)

With Odell Beckham out of the picture, it’s now time for Shepard to thrive. He’s doing just that in this role, leading the Giants WRs with 13 catches for 142 yards in two games played. Most importantly, he’s got 16 targets in his two games while averaging 65 snaps per game. That snap rate is one of the best in the NFL and it’s going to be hard to keep him off the field with such limited options available.

In the last two games without Beckham last season, Shepard accrued 10 catches for an additional 180 yards and it’s clear that he’s the top receiving option on this team. The matchup against Washington is simply a bonus, with the Redskins allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.

John Brown, BUF vs. NE

DK ($5,300) FD ($5,600)

It blows my mind that these sites are keeping Brown’s price so affordable. He’s been the Bills top receiver this season and it’s evident that he’s the focal point of their offense. Not only is he leading all Buffalo’s position players in snaps, he also leads the team 23 targets. That’s led to 18 catches for 246 yards and a TD through his first three games, which is unbelievable production from someone in this price range.

While the Patriots do have a stingy defense, the Bills should be throwing a lot in this game. The reason for that is because they’re a 6.5-point underdog, which should guarantee Josh Allen at least 30 pass attempts and Brown 10 targets. In his one game against the Patriots last year, Allen attempted a career-high 41 passes in a losing effort, which would be the perfect scenario for Brown to get double-digit targets.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week Two Injuries and DFS Outlooks

Richard Masana 5 years ago

written by Richard Masana

What a difference one week makes. Just last Friday I was thinking to myself that I had so much time to dive headfirst into the few injuries that were being reported. Now that it’s Week Two and games have been played, the injuries are stacking up. Here are the most notable Week Two Injuries with in-depth analysis.

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Julio Jones

No longer on the injury report. Giddy up for a Week Two bounce back against the Eagles’ “defense.”

JuJu Smith-Schuster

The same goes for JuJu as he was upgraded to a full practice participant on Friday. Giddy-up as well.

Tyler Lockett

No longer listed on the injury report, the pride of Wildcat land is a sneaky play against a Steelers defense that was just shredded by Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and even Phillip Dorsett. Add in the fact that the Seahawks are road dogs and you get yet another horse reference: giddy up.

Mike Williams

The opposite is true here for Williams. As of Friday, Williams had drawn a questionable tag and has been limited all week by a mystery knee injury. Considering that the Chargers’ skill players are going down faster than chicken wings on Super Bowl Sunday, part of me believes that pressure from the coaching staff (and probably Williams’ own internal pressure) is pushing him to play this Sunday. I’m avoiding Williams and living with the result because all signs point to red flags for him in DFS.

Marquise Brown

Brown is still on the injury report as he was last week. The reason I’m concerned about putting him into lineups is that even though he blew up last week while playing through an injury designation, he was still limited in snaps. Let’s also acknowledge the fact that the Dolphins are undoubtedly the worst team in the league. With all that said, if he has another giant performance, it will be in spite of injury concerns.

Sterling Shepard

There’t not much to say here other than concussions are volatile and despite players’ progress in concussion protocol, their availability is never a lock. He’s been ruled out.

Now, on to running backs, as there are a couple of guys who are risky plays this week.

Joe Mixon

I said all week that I was unsure if Mixon would suit up on Sunday, but all signs point to him being on the field as he practiced on Friday with no setbacks (as of now). It’s worth noting that when players come off injuries like Mixon’s, availability and production are not guaranteed to be correlated. If his lateral mobility and ankle stability isn’t quite where it needs to be, he might struggle or worse, re-injure himself. Unfortunately, re-injury to lateral ankle sprains are very common. Mixon is another player I’m willing to leave out of my lineups. Even if he balls out this week, from an injury perspective the conservative move is to avoid him.

Le’Veon Bell

Bell’s situation is extremely odd as “precautionary” MRIs are virtually unheard of in the medical community. It’s also worth noting that despite the MRI being “clear” imaging and pain reports are terribly correlated. That means that Bell can still be in a significant amount of pain while playing on Sunday, which would mainly limit him in the passing game. Additionally, he was limited in practice on Friday, but planned to practice Saturday. With all of that said, Darnold is out and the offense will likely have no choice but to run through Bell, so he’s a volume play for me this week. Even though it makes me slightly nervous, he’s nowhere near the Joe Mixon level of concern for me.

James Conner

Conner was a full participant in practice Friday and is seemingly recovered from an illness. If you’re in a pool with people who have been scared off, slide him as the Steelers are home favorites against a post-Legion-of-Boom defense that was just shredded by Andy Dalton.

Everybody else

Whoa there! (I hope you picked up on the horse narrative) A reminder that Jordan Reed, Hunter Henry, Derrius Guice and Tyreek Hill have all been ruled OUT.

There are your Week Two Injuries (with a few horse references). Make sure you check in with us on Sunday morning for another quick hit injury report. Good luck setting those lineups!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

DFS: Week Two Injury Report

5 years ago

written by

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I can only assume that you walked away a winner from Week One by listening to our podcasts, reading our strategy pieces, and staying up to date on our injury report. So, congratulations! If you didn’t, don’t be concerned, as your time is coming. Now, let’s discuss the Week Two injury report.

Mike Evans

Evans battled a stomach bug all last week, and it showed on the field. The weather was hot and humid while Evans struggled to stay hydrated and explosive. On top of that, Jameis Winston didn’t have the best showing (to put it nicely). With all of that said, I expect Evans to bounce back.

Julio Jones

Jones and the injury report go together like a fine wine and perfectly aged cheese. I say that because ultimately, he usually performs extremely well despite any designations and concerns. The issue this week is that it’s an unfamiliar injury with his wrist, which can compromise his ability to catch the ball. I’m watching the report all week on this one before throwing him into lineups.

Tyler Lockett

Ah, Tyler Lockett, the pride of Kansas State, my Alma Mater. I still smile when I remember watching Lockett in person as he returned punts for touchdowns that glorious 2012 season. I digress, Lockett showed up on the injury report on Wednesday after being presumed completely healthy following the Week One victory over the Bengals. Watch Lockett’s status on Thursday and Friday for a better picture. I’m hoping this turns into a minor issue and scares most away from one of the most efficient receivers.

Joe Mixon

I tweeted a picture and a short blurb about Mixon’s injury here. He had a classic lateral ankle sprain mechanism of injury as he was forced down by two defenders. The good news is that this is a manageable injury that responds very well to active rest and rehab. Unfortunately, it can take a couple of weeks to get back to 100%. He also mentioned on Wednesday that his intention is to play on Sunday. Regardless, I’m fading him in DFS unless we hear he is back to full speed by Friday (which I do not expect)

Update: Mixon was limited at practice on Thursday and continues to be day to day.

Mike Williams

This is an interesting case as I went back to watch the play that he was injured on, and nothing jumped out at me. I have a few theories in mind that aren’t worth mentioning specifically, but what matters is that on Wednesday coach Anthony Lynn said that he was “concerned” for Williams’ knee. How concerned? Well, the Chargers signed another depth receiver on Wednesday in light of Williams’ injury.

Update: There continues to be a sense of mystery behind this injury and I would not play Williams even if he is active. He missed practice on Thursday.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu is another interesting case to me. I’m going to assume that the medical staff knows something we don’t, as it was reported that he suffered a toe injury, but only X-rays were conducted. You see, X-rays are only used to rule out bone and joint injuries (fractures, dislocations, etc). That means if JuJu has “turf toe” (a sprain of the first toe) an X-ray would not catch it. To make matters worse, he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Keep your eyes peeled this week for JuJu’s injury status.

*It’s worth noting here that JuJu’s teammate, James Conner, was ill on Wednesday.

Update: The teammates are both expected to play on Sunday.

Baker Mayfield

The Titans pressured Mayfield all game long and at one point, sacked him for a safety. Mayfield stood up holding his wrist and simply looked uncomfortable the rest of the game. His X-rays are negative, but again, if it isn’t a bone or joint injury, we could be missing something. Add in the Jets’ (surprisingly) decent defense, and I might avoid Baker in DFS this week. He’s another guy to watch for as the week progresses.

Greg Olsen

At 34 years of age, Olsen is still trotting out there on Sundays despite his body starting to wear down. He’s been dealing with a back injury this week, and did not practice on Wednesday ahead of their TNF game against Tampa Bay. The flip side of these warning signs is that the veteran doesn’t need a walk-through practice and he told reporters on Wednesday that he’ll be ready to go. If he’s out, Ian Thomas is an extremely valuable option at tight end for showdown plays.

Update: Olsen is likely to play based on coach Ron Rivera’s comments all week. However, I’m staying away as there is potential for him to be on a snap count and due to risk of a back “flare up”.

Amari Cooper

Cooper sat out an entire month in the pre-season to nurse his plantar fasciitis, which is a chronic foot condition that can be very painful. The logic was to allow him to take it easy, rehab, and rest so it would not plague him all season like it did while still at Alabama. This was a very smart and prudent plan. Well, on Wednesday he told reporters that during Week One against the Giants, he had a “flare up” but it concluded that it is not an ongoing issue. Look, I’m not anybody to tell you to fade a receiver who just performed as well as Cooper did in that new-look offense, so I won’t. The best way to put Cooper’s situation into words is like this: with each passing week, Amari Cooper might become that yellow light that I’m just not comfortable racing through.

Patrick Mahomes

I wasn’t concerned whatsoever about Mahomes before Wednesday’s practice. He was seen during warm-ups clearly limited in lateral movements and favoring the ankle. I can’t imagine ever paying the premium for Mahomes in DFS, and even though I expect him to play, I’m looking for a better option.

Sam Darnold

Darnold was sick on Wednesday and did not practice, so watch his progression throughout the week. I’m always nervous about illnesses as hydration and fatigue are an issue.

Update: Darnold was ruled OUT for Monday’s game against the Browns. The Jets report that Darnold has mononucleosis, “the kissing disease” which is a member of a common family of viruses. This illness can cause inflammation of the spleen, which is the primary reason (aside from general fatigue) for his absence. Unfortunately for Darnold, this can cost him several weeks as the only treatment is to allow it to run it’s course.

More Updates

Le’Veon Bell: Along with the Darnold news, Adam Gase reported that Bell has a “sore shoulder” and he’ll receive an MRI. Although Gase says they are being “extra cautious” it’s a red flag to jump straight to an MRI, which will show the joint congruencey, ligaments, tendons, muscles, and overall integrity of the structures within the shoulder. I’m watching this injury closely as a shoulder injury could impact Bell’s ability to catch the football. If Bell is out, Ty Montgomery would be the cheap (and admittedly chalk) play of the week.

Update: Bell received a “precautionary” MRI that (unsurprisingly) found nothing significant. Sticking to my conservative style of play, I’m side stepping Bell in daily this week. The reasoning is that imaging reports and pain are terribly correlated and Bell can still be in quite a bit of pain despite his MRI. This could lead him to avoid contact and raising his arms to catch passes.

Derrius Guice: Guice will reportedly get a second opinion on his meniscus injury, which has a chance to turn into surgery. Although this development is more relevant in season long, it’s worth noting that Chris Thompson’s stock is on the rise this week. Use him in lineups before his price goes up.

KeKe Coutee: Coutee is making progress in practice and has the potential to play this week. I would wait a day or so longer before making a solid decision on him.

Sterling Shepard: Monitor his progress through concussion protocol. As of now, he has a good chance of playing

Update: Coutee was a full participant in practice Thursday. He could be a sneaky play this week.

Everybody Else

Lastly, for the less informed crowd, I want to provide a list of players who have been ruled out for Week Two (and beyond in most cases). I assume most people are aware of these players by now, but just to be sure: Tyreek Hill, Keke Coutee Tevin Coleman, Nick Foles, Derrius Guice, Devin Funchess, Quincy Enunwa, Hunter Henry.

Keep an eye out for an updated versions of this report on Saturday and Sunday before kickoff. Thank you for reading!

Featured image courtesy of Chris J. Nelson.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS: Defense Strategy

Capper Steve 5 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Daily Fantasy Football is all about offensive players right? Nope! You would be surprised how impactful the defense that you roster in your lineup has on your overall output. Especially when it comes to your GPP lineups. So what is the best way to select one when it comes to cash and GPP games? In this article, we will discuss when to pay up or save when it comes to defense and what factors you need to consider when selecting which one to start in your lineup.

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weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Defense Wins Championships

It often times is vastly overlooked, but the defense plays an integral role in taking down a GPP. The reason for this is because the scoring is extremely volatile and can create a significant edge. With the scoring so touchdown-dependent the top performing defense is often the result of some fluky plays.

There are two major factors you want to consider. A defense that is playing a very bad offense is a great place to start. One that may be starting a backup quarterback, for example, is a great option even if that defense is statistically poor. The other option is selecting a defense that is playing an offense that projects a game script with high passing volume. The more dropbacks and passing attempts a team has, that will result in more opportunities for turnovers and sacks.

Those two factors can be applied to both cash and GPP games. However, with cash games, you do not need to avoid the real chalky defenses, whereas with GPPs you should avoid them. Anything over 20% projected ownership is definitely a fade for GPPs. When in doubt save salary at defense. Do not ever swap out a player you like in a specific slate, to select a defense that your projection has higher ranked. Chances are the change will not benefit you.

DraftKings Millionaire Maker

In the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest in 2018 here were the main takeaways from winning lineups when it came to defensive selections. I have listed out the approaches from both ownership and salary perspectives.

30% used lineups where defenses were $3000 or more.
The other 70% all used lineups that were under $3000.
Of the lineups above $3000 as well, 80% of those were over $3500

This means that you should tend to save salary at defense or pay up all the way if that top defense is in a smashing spot. Smashing spots would include a backup quarterback playing an elite defense on the road. For ownership projections, it’s the middle-tiered ownership that was used most frequently.

70% were between 5% – 20% owned.
30% were under 5% or over 20%

With defense, it is not necessarily about going super chalky or super contrarian. Just try to find value with price and potential output in mind. For the most part, you are playing defenses in cash and GPPs similarly except when it comes to ownership projections. The other strategy to point out is you can actually stack when it comes to defenses. You can learn more about NFL DFS stacking here.

Defensive Stacking

There are two strategies in which you can stack defensively. One is stacking a defense with their respective lead running back. The idea here is that the team’s defense will play well and the offense will complement the defense by running the ball a ton. These are great stacks to use, especially in cash games where you are looking for average production for your defense. You are paying up at running back anyway in cash games so it makes selecting your defense pretty simple.

The other stacking strategy with defense is with a WR/RB that is used on special teams as a kick returner or punt returner. On some Daily Fantasy sites like DraftKings, you can often “double-dip” if a special teams touchdown is scored by an offensive player. For example, if your roster Tyler Lockett and the Seattle Seahawks defense/special teams, you would score 12 points for a special teams touchdown instead of just six. Again the idea behind winning GPPs is finishing extremely high so you are looking to maximize the upside.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS, AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

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