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Trae Young

Happy Thursday my NBA DFS friends – after a 10 game slate where we saw the OKC value chalk drive DFS scores, we come back to a more manageable 5 game slate and one where we could see a ton of injury news open up chalk-tastic value.

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We only have 10 teams in our NBA DFS player pool on Thursday but we have a ton of high-end player injury news on the tail end of back to backs for a handful of teams that could drive some serious value our way – and frankly, that will dictate how this slate is built.

Damian Lillard is questionable and we have Kristaps Porzingis/Victor Olapido unlikely to play on the B2B. To have that much star power potentially on the bench, it is going to open up a massive amount of value that will make it easier to pay for our studs.

Also, if Dame does sit – how will that impact the stars in Philadelphia with their own B2B set tonight?

Anchoring to the Stars!

Luka Doncic ($10.9K) becomes arguably the top star to pay for on the slate when/if we get confirmation that KP is managing his load. We have a massive data set to pull from in this case where Luka has a near 40% usage rate over the last two seasons in 1400 minutes when Porzingis is out and you get the added boost of a match-up against a Warriors squad playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season.

Now the last two games that KP has sat, Luka has actually been more floor than ceiling – with 49 and 45 DK points against the Suns and Rockets – DFS outputs that frankly would be a massive disappointment if you are paying a near $11K premium. However, take that data set back to the four previous games KP missed and you see the demonstrated ceiling – 57, 59, 72, and 79 DK points.

In the 10 games that Porzingis has missed this year, it is interesting to note that Luka has been held under 50 DK points in 6 of the 10 so the simplistic logic of KP out equals Luka lock, really has not been the case.

The flip side here is that we have to look at Luka and these stars in the context of the slate. First and foremost, if we get the value that we expect – that value dictates that we have the salary flexibility to afford Luka. Secondly, that 70-80 DK point ceiling that Luka has shown this year – that is the kind of raw point ceiling you simply need to have on a short slate.

In this same game, we get a National TV match-up with Luka versus Steph Curry ($9.8K).

Curry is the entirety of the Warriors offense this year and he gets to take the stage tonight against a Dallas team that is giving up the 3rd highest opponent 3P% over the last 10 games at 40.4%. No player in the NBA is putting up more 3PA per game than Chef Curry this season – so let’s see, national TV with a high volume three-point shooter against a team that cannot defend it – hello ceiling game!

The final superstar in this top tier that I would consider is Nikola Jokic ($11K).

Now the recent history against the Lakers is not going to be a strong selling point as he has been held under 40 DK points in 3 of his 4 meetings against the Lakers the last two seasons with a 53 DK point outing being his “ceiling.”

However, much like with Luka – I think the slate will dictate how The Joker becomes a priority. From a raw points perspective, it is hard to argue with a player who has gone for 60+ in 7 of his last 10 games and eclipsed 70 DK points in two of those meetings (both against Utah).

I am a firm believer in raw points being a priority on small slates like this and if the value is there to jam in the stars – I think you are almost forced into outlining this path.

A Luka-Curry-Joker build is going to leave you around $3.7K per player for the rest of your build – a spot that becomes quite doable IF the injury news breaks as we are hoping. You are also anchoring to a three-man core that has a legitimate chance to get you 200 DK points on their own. The question then becomes can you get 100-150 DK points from the “Scrub 5” – or 20-30 DK points per player to make this a winnable NBA DFS build?

Give me all the value!

The starting point for value tonight is going to be in Portland – if we get the news that Damian Lillard will sit. This is the path in my mind where taking the obvious value and pairing it with the high-priced stars like Luka/Joker becomes a core building block.

Portland is already without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, will be without Nassir Little tonight and Derrick Jones Jr. is questionable. With that crew out last game, Portland played an 8 man rotation – which included Dame for nearly 40 minutes of court time – take him off, and sheesh – it is value city.

Rodney Hood ($3.7K) received the start last game with Litte/DJJ out and played 35 minutes, shot the ball 12 time and racked up 22 DK points which puts him right at 6x value since his priced moved all of $200. If Jones Jr. is out again – Hood becomes an easy plug and play value.

The big winner if Dame were to sit would be Anfernee Simons ($4.6K) who would get the start at PG and get all the run he could handle against the Sixers. We have seen Simons start a hand full of times the last two years and he has put up 25-26 DK points in those stars but here is a big difference – those spot starts have always come in place of one of Dame/CJ. Tonight it would be a potential start with BOTH stars out – the ceiling would simply be too high for us to pass on tonight if Dame is out and he would be a lock button mid-range value.

Lastly – and my man Adam Strangis nailed this in his Cash Game Breakdown ($) today – is the role Juan Toscano Anderson ($3.5K) will play now with both Kevon Looney AND James Wiseman sidelined. As Adam pointed out “JTA was the direct sub for Looney and played 18 of the 26 possible minutes after Looney left the game with an injury.”

One additional play from Golden State that could give us elite value is Kent Bazemore ($3.3K). Similar to JTA – Bazemore played 12 of the second half 24 minutes with Looney sidelined and actually closed the 4th alongside JTA, Curry, Wiggins and Draymond.

If you are following along – here is what we got kids.

Lock in Luka, Joker and Chef Curry. The click in the values that would/could have starters minutes path tonight – and you still have around $3.5K per player for those last two spots.

When the value is this obvious – I do not try and get cute – I play the value that allows me to get the high ceiling stars that win you the slate. Every. Single. Time.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Stars. Scrubs.

Rinse. Repeat.

This slate has the potential to be very clear and obviously it is injury dependent – the path opens up early here for this kind of build that has massive GPP appeal.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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This week’s Collector’s Corner takes a look at what 2018 NBA rookie trading cards – beyond Luka and Trae – could have some lasting value down the road.

The meteoric rise of 2019-20 NBA trading card products because of the historically talented rookie class is well known – with generational superstars like Rookie of the Year Ja Morant and 20-year-old sensation Zion Williamson already doing special things on the court, and names like Tyler Herro, R.J. Barrett, Brandon Clarke and P.J. Washington (to name just a few) flashing some transcendent ability on the hardwood. But the 2018-19 rookie crop has some real gems beyond Luka Doncic – possibly the best young player in the league since LeBron James – and Trae Young, a sharpshooting combo guard sniper who can score on a level with Stephon Curry and some of the league’s best.

Doncic and Young cards make buying 2018-19 NBA products an expensive endeavor and finding their rookie trading cards at affordable prices is already pretty difficult. But what about some of the other players from that class who’ve yet to see their games fully emerge into the consciousness of collectors? In this edition of Collector’s Corner, we’ll give you some players from the 2018-19 draft class who make for excellent investments as they prepare to take the next step in the NBA showcase.

Note: I’ll continue to use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Trading Cards – Cash Buys (other than Luka and Trae)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC

A do-it-all guard with the size to create constant mismatches and handle the pick-and-roll with the best of them, SGA was the centerpiece of the Paul George trade and is probably the player most likely to join Luka and Trae in the stratosphere of NBA superstardom. The Thunder are just 6-7 to start the season but have a bright future – thanks to SGA and a new head coach (Mark Daigneault) who’s honest about the mistakes he sees his players make, and how they need to improve.

You can pick up some of SGA’s rookie trading cards (like this 2018-19 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #162) for a fraction of what Luka and Trae cost. He’s not guaranteed to reach their level right away, but he may be a better all-around player than Young because of his size and should be money in the bank a couple years down the road.

DeAndre Ayton, PHO

Ayton still need to learn to stop fouling people, but it’s obvious he can manhandle dudes in the post – like he did up-and-comer Christian Wood on Wednesday night in Houston. He’s a beast at both ends of the floor, and the Suns are building a supporting cast that can take some of the pressure off the two-headed Ayton-Booker monster that still fared pretty well in 2019-20.

I’ve talked about how much I like Ayton before – he’s the centerpiece of my 2018-19 basketball collection thus far – but the big man just keeps drawing positive reviews and is in a great spot to return major trading card value in a few years. If you think SGA is still pretty cheap, you should see what the same card (2018-19 Optic base) is selling for. A PSA 9 at $25 could easily return a 400% profit in two or three seasons.

Trading Cards – GPP Buys

Michael Porter, Jr., DEN

If you’re a DFS junkie and you’ve seen Porter Jr.  get into a groove on the court and smash value, you probably know how excellent an investment in his rookie trading cards can be. But he’s blocked a bit from producing at an elite level at the moment and there is a lot of uncertainty about whether or not he can do enough to make the Nuggets a contender in 2020-21 – so you can still find some good deals on his rookies.

Even when he was drafted, there were concerns about how many minutes Porter would be playing in the NBA; he played just 53 minutes of his freshman season in college as a result of back surgery, and a hip issue in the leadup to the draft added more concern about his body. MPJ has now been out since Dec. 29 after testing positive for COVID-19, but he’s nearing a return and was averaging nearly 20 points, seven rebounds, one steal and 1.5 blocks prior to his quarantine period.

Jaren Jackson, Jr., MEM

We don’t have any recent on-court performance to look at with Triple-J, but he looked like a star in three bubble games with averages of 25.3 points, 3.3 triples and 1.7 blocks, and he reportedly grew a couple inches (I know, I know) since the last time he’s taken the court – if Dillon Brooks is to be believed. Still – it’s not unrealistic that the 6-11 (pre-COVID-19) Memphis big man has crested the 7-foot mark as he recovers from meniscus surgery.

JJJ should make for a wonderful complement to the scoring and distribution of Ja Morant, and he’s a floor-stretching 4-slash-5 who can knock down three-pointers, crash the boards and send back that weak stuff like a two-way unicorn. His high-level trading cards could definitely be worth the investment, especially if you can find some raw examples that look like they could 10.

Bonus GPP Buys: Collin Sexton, CLE, Marvin Bagley, SAC and Kevin Huerter, ATL

Trading Cards – Punt Plays

Mikal Bridges, PHO

When he was drafted, Bridges drew comparisons to Klay Thompson, and he’s been a solid producer on the new-look Suns. His stuff is cheap, and even the rookie trading cards with parallels within reach. There’s a lot of good young players in Phoenix, and who stays and who goes in the next few years due to salary cap decisions makes the whole situation a bit uncertain, but he’s a talented player with monster upside.

Mo Bamba, ORL

I’m very much on the fence about Mo Bamba, and as the NYT pointed out when he was drafted – it’s hard  to find “two people to agree on what Bamba’s ceiling is, or how likely he is to reach it.”  That NYT goes on to talk about how Bamba broke the NBA combine record for wingspan measurement – reaching an absurd 7 feet 10 inches – and how his standing reach was a full three inches taller than any player measured at the combine. You don’t have to buy with much trepidation – because his stuff is super cheap.

Wendell Carter, Jr., CHI

The Former No. 7 draftee from Duke had expectations through the roof, and has been a fantasy bust so far. But while he’s been lacking defensively and took a step back in 2019, new Bulls HC Billy Donovan has the team headed in the right direction. Carter, Jr. could have a good season coming and might be investing in. His Silver Prizm rookie card (even in a PSA 10) can be had for relative peanuts.

Bonus Punts: Donte DiVincenzo, MIL and Lonnie Walker IV, SA

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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 3/6 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 3/6 — PG

Devin Booker, PHO (vs. POR) – DK $8,400

With Luka Doncic (illness) and Trae Young (flu-like symptoms) questionable tonight, I’m looking directly at Booker (PG/SG/G/UTIL) for my points explosion in a favorable matchup against the Blazers. We can stack him up with Damian Lillard, and find value with one of the Pacers point guards (Aaron Holiday or T.J. McConnell, both just $4K) if necessary, as Malcolm Brogdon is doubtful and Victor Oladipo is questionable. With Evan Fournier out, Michael Carter-Williams is another position-flexible guard who can produce in bunches – especially facing the Wolves.

Stack/Punts: DamianLillard/Aaron Holiday or T.J. McConnell/MCW

NBA DFS 3/6 — SG

Bradley Beal, WAS (vs. ATL) – DK $10,400

We could see a ceiling game from Beal (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) tonight in a high-scoring matchup against the Hawks, which means that 70 fantasy points aren’t out of the question if he gets hot from three-point range. There’s plenty of value out there in this slate, so spending up for Beal makes sense tonight. I’m not going to bother with a pivot, but Markelle Fultz is a sneaky value option (don’t play with MCW) and feel free to stack up this game with Jeff Teague (PG/SG/G/UTIL) and/or Kevin Huerter (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) if Young misses.

Value/Stack: Markelle Fultz/JeffTeague and/or Kevin Huerter

NBA DFS 3/6 — SF

DeAndre Hunter, ATL (@ WAS) – DK $4,900

He’s priced under $5K andhas enormous upside, albeit a fair share of risk. Hunter remains one of myfavorite GPP plays in up-tempo games, and he could get more minutes than normalif Cam Reddish (lower back pain) is limited in any way. If you don’t play Booker,then Mikal Bridges is a fine SF option for the Suns, who will be withoutDeAndre Ayton and looking for more scoring from their guards and forwards, andstackers might consider punting Jerome Robinson (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL), who’s beenseeing bigger minutes and will draw the start tonight against the Hawks.

Pivot/Punt: MikalBridges/Jerome Robinson

NBA DFS 3/6 — PF

Cheick Diallo, PHO (vs. POR) – DK $3,200

Diallo is not a play for the fearful, but he’s a great pivot from Aron Baynes in the Suns-Blazers battle and has 10x upside if he gets over 20 minutes tonight. He’s likely to be the first Suns player off the bench tonight. The spend-up options are Domantas Sabonis for a depleted Pacers rotation and Zion Williamson in a tough matchup that will keep his ownership low in GPPs.

Spend Pivots: Domantas Sabonis/ZionWilliamson

NBA DFS 3/6 — C

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (vs. MEM) – DK $9,300

You can only play two players with center-only designationson DK today, and Aron Baynes will likely eat up a lot of that ownership in GPPs,so I’m looking directly at Porzingis for the bulk of my lineups. Luka is questionable,THJ is out and even Dorian Finney-Smith is nursing a hip injury that could keephim out tonight, so we could see max usage for Porzingis and Seth Curry in apace-up game against Memphis they should still win. Pivots include NikolaVucevic (also C/UTIL only) and Hassan Whiteside, but neither has the 70-pointceiling of the 7-3 Latvian.

Pivots: Nikola Vucevic or HassanWhiteside

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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/29 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/29 — PG

James Harden, HOU (@ BOS) – DK $10,900

Harden reignited his rivalry with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a sit-down interview with Rachel Nichols and will be looking to back up his claims tonight in a highly anticipated Leap Year Special with the Celtics. The Bearded One is essentially matchup-proof and dropped 42 real-life points (and 67 DK points) against Boston on Feb. 11. It’s weird to say he could be overlooked, but there is a bunch of interesting SG plays today and we can sneak Harden in at PG – where he’s priced a little bit higher than Trae Young and has more consistent upside. I’ll probably build about half of my GPP lineups around Harden in anticipation of lower ownership than usual and very little chance of a blowout. Trae is a fine pivot against the Blazers, but my HOU-BOS game stacks won’t be using any of the PG-eligible Celtic guards.

Pivot: Trae Young

NBA DFS 2/29 — SG

C.J. McCollum, POR (@ ATL) – DK $9,200

I really don’t care that McCollum is $9,200, because he should be over $10K, especially in a matchup with the Hawks that could see another monster game total. McCollum’s usage with the current Portland starters is a whopping 34% and he’s scored 50 or more DK points in there of his last four – the one outlier being a 43.25 DK outing against the defensively-minded Pacers. As chief playmaker for this Portland team (which is fighting with a slew of other squads in the Western Conference to snag the last playoff spot), he’s going to have to bring it every night until Damian Lillard returns. I’m fading the likely popular DeMar DeRozan at $7,600 in a low-total game against the Magic that’s guaranteed to fall well short of last night’s madness from a pace perspective, but I don’t mind taking a crack at Bryn Forbes ($3,200) when he’s easily got 8x to 10x upside as one of the Spurs primary three-point shooters and getting about 20-25 minutes. The best non-punt value pivot is probably Jaylen Brown – who was nursing ankle injuries the last time Boston faced the Rockets and is expensive enough at $6,900 to ward off high ownership. Smart is cheaper but doesn’t have the same offensive upside.

Pivot/Punt: Jaylen Brown or MarcusSmart/Bryn Forbes

NBA DFS 2/29 — SF

Mikal Bridges, PHO (vs. GSW) – DK $5,200

With Kelly Oubre out for the year, Bridges (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) has been seeing more minutes and draws a great matchup tonight against the Warriors – who struggle to defend 3&D wings like Mikal. Cam Johnson sustained an “upper-body” injury after a fall in last night’s contest that eaves him questionable for tonight’s matchup, so we could see Bridges play a bit more with the second unit as well. He’s a solid GPP option on a night where he might go overlooked and makes for a good bargain wing to include in your lineups. DraftKings lists very few SF-only players and I doubt Bridges will see much ownership with so many stud SGs (like Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan) and PFs (Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward) eligible at SF. Bridges may not have a 50-point upside like those guys, but he’s got around a 45-point ceiling and his floor comes up with the new injury to Johnson. Cam Reddish has a great motor and has been playing well, so he’s a fine pivot for a few bucks less. If Andrew Wiggins actually plays tonight, he’d make a fine stacking option – though I’m a little worried about the game blowing out.

Pivot/Stack:Cam Reddish/Andrew Wiggins

NBA DFS 2/29 — PF

Carmelo Anthony, POR (@ ATL) – DK $5,700

Carmelo is another important part of Blazers-Hawks game stacks and should be a lot busier offensively than he was at Indiana two nights ago. He’s 9-for-21 from three-point range over his last four games, including the 0-for-0 in Thursday’s loss. Melo’s in a good spot against a team that gives up big fantasy points to versatile forwards, but I’ll be pivoting down a bit for some more value in quite a few builds to Kyle Kuzma at just $4,600. Kuzma has 8x to 10x upside in a possibly LeBron-less game against Memphis where he could see 30 minutes. Game stackers should consider De’Andre Hunter, who will be playing a lot of 4 against Melo. Anthony Davis is going to drawn higher ownership, but I have some concerns, so I’m fading him. At his price, I like other guys better and if he beats me, he beats me.

Pivot/Stack: Kyle Kuzma/De’Andre Hunter

NBA DFS 2/29 — C

Marquese Chriss, GSW (@ PHO) – DK $5,400

If we played a lot of the high-value options at guard and forward, we need to find some value at C, and I’m looking no further than Chriss, who was a dud against the dominant frontcourt the Lakers threw at him. The former “Marquese de Phoenix” (I just made that up) might put up a show against the weak defense played by the Suns’ bigs, so I’m embracing the inherent risk of him not getting more than 30 minutes and focusing on his 8x upside in just 25-30 minutes. He’s a great option in Suns-Warriors stacks along with Wiggins, and the best pivot in his price range is probably Myles Turner. One punt option that stands out is ATL power big Bruno Fernando, who’s just $3,500 on DK and has been playing minutes in the 20s now. He’s got 10x upside against a team that ranks low in defensive efficiency against big men. But I have no qualms about making Bam Adebayo your center. I’m done fading that guy and will be using him in lineups where I haven’t blown my salary on guards.

Spend/Pivot/Punt: Bam Adebayo/MylesTurner/Bruno Fernando

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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/28 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/28 — PG

Trae Young, ATL (vs. BKN) – DK $10,500

There are a few question marks heading into tonight’s 10-game slate, and Young is currently listed as questionable with an illness – the same designation he had Wednesday when he dropped 62.5 DK points. We’re a couple of days removed and while I expect him to be the highest fantasy scorer of slate (if Giannis and/or Luka sits), be sure to check his status before lock. That said, the matchup is a solid one and this projects to be one of a few high-total games in the 230-240 range. We can run it back with Wednesday night DFS hero Caris LeVert (PG/SF/G/F/UTIL eligible on DK but a much better price as an SG on FanDuel) or Spencer Dinwiddie, who’s under $8K on DK but hasn’t had a big offensive explosion in a spell. If you’re pivoting from this game, there’s some value/upside in Mike Conley and solid PG options in the CLE@NO game (Collin Sexton/Lonzo Ball) – though I think that’s a much more effective game stack/pairing on FD.

Value Pivot/Stack: Mike Conley/Caris LeVert orSpencer Dinwiddie

NBA DFS 2/28 — SG

Devin Booker, PHO (vs. DET) – DK $7,900

Tenacious David Jones reminded us of the NBA Podcast that tonight is Booker Bobblehead Night in Phoenix, so we’ve got a perfect storm for a huge night from Devin the Dude: A fun narrative, a fast-paced game, and an affordable price tag. He’s got about a 70-point ceiling according to our NBA projections and he’ll be a staple of my GPP builds. Donovan Mitchell is a viable pivot, but his upside is limited compared to Booker, and PHO-DET game stackers can look no further than Derrick Rose, who’s projected for 5.5x value if he gets just 26 minutes. If D-Rose can somehow garner 30-35 minutes in this one, we could see easily 50+ DK points.

Pivot/Stack: Donovan Mitchell/DerrickRose

NBA DFS 2/28 — SF

Taurean Prince, BKN (@ ATL) – DK $4,700

We could see some more value options open up at SF as injury/rotation news develops during the day, but for now, I’m fearlessly forecasting a big game from Prince playing against his old team. Prince has a decent floor but his upside is usually capped by minutes in the mid-20s. He scored 21 FD points in 21 minutes against the Hawks earlier this season (even with no blocks or steals), and if he cracks 30 minutes and can get going from long range, he’s got 8x to 10x value and 40+ points in his headlights. If you tend to scoff at narratives, you can spend up to Brandon Ingram ($7,500), and game stackers might want to give Cam Reddish or Kevin Huerter a shot.

Spend Pivot/Stack: Brandon Ingram/Cam Reddish or Kevin Huerter

NBA DFS 2/28 — PF

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, TOR (vs. CHA) – DK $4,100

This is purely a value play and I’ll only be using RHJ (just $3,700 on FD) if he starts in place of Serge Ibaka (knee, questionable). Chris Boucher is the other Toronto value PF I’m examining, so it’ll probably be one or the other logging the increased minutes and taking advantage of this smash spot if Ibaka is out. Pascal Siakam could go off as well, but he’s $8,500 and this game features a relatively low total – so it’s hard for me to see him hitting his ceiling. One pivot that’s a little more expensive is Larry Nance, who should see bigger minutes with Andre Drummond out, but I have very little interest in the Charlotte bigs unless we get word that Cozy Zeller (healthy scratch DNP-CD on Wednesday) is starting since he’s just $4,100 and has 10x upside when he sees 30 minutes. If you have lots of salaries freed up for PF, then going back to the Aaron Gordon well could work out one again.

Spend/Pivot/Stack: Aaron Gordon/LarryNance/Cody Zeller (only if starting)

NBA DFS 2/28 — C

DeAndre Ayton, PHO (vs. DET) – DK $8,100

Ayton has a legitimate 8x upside in a smash spot against the Pistons and DK is offering a tempting discount on his services compared to FD ($9,000). If you’re squeamish about playing two studs from the Suns, you can pivot to Nikola Vucevic (but don’t use him at C if you’re playing Aaron Gordon). The obvious value option is Tristan Thompson, who regularly cranks out 30+ points when he starts or sees minutes in the 25-30 range. I wish we could exploit the plus matchup that the Nets bigs have against the Hawks, but the whole Jarrett Allen/DeAndre Jordan situation is just entirely too unpredictable unless one of them gets the night off. Allen does make for an interesting option in low-stakes large-field multi-entry GPPs though – at just $5,100 he’s got 9x upside if he plays 25-30 minutes.

Pivot/Value/Deep GPP: Nikola Vucevic/Tristan Thompson/JarrettAllen (large-field GPP only)

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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/22 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/22 — PG

Luka Doncic, DAL (@ ATL) – DK $10,200

I don’t know why Luka’s price has actually dropped a few hundred bucks on DK, but we’ll welcome that. Both James Harden (@UTA) and Trae Young (on the other side of this matchup and stackable) are more expensive today and have lower floors and ceilings tonight. Doncic fills up the stat sheet and also has a better shot at triple-double bonus than the aforementioned NBA DFS ballers. If you’re drawn to Russell Westbrook as a pivot I wouldn’t mind much – he’s got a very winnable matchup with Utah, and is stackable with Mike Conley, who should be a full go for the second half of a back-to-back where he rested yesterday. But Luka remains the best player over $10K on this six-game slate.

UPDATE: Luka is out, so plug in Trae Young.

With Luka and Porzingis out, there’s a whole lot of value opening up for the Mavs (and Hawks, in that Trae’s upside is now a tad higher). DFS, Maxi Kleber and Tim Hardaway are all solid plays, as is probable starting PG Jalen Brunson who’s just $5K on DK. And with Jimmy Butler (personal) out, one of Goran Dragic or Kendrick Nunn should have a big game.

Pivot/Stack: Russell Westbrook/Jalen Brunson

NBA DFS 2/22 — SG

Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN (@ CHA) – DK $7,700

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a ceiling game from Dinwiddie, who’s assumed full control as the main scoring guard in the absence of Kyrie Irving. He’s added some salary in the past few days but remains a solid GPP play in an exploitable matchup. If he can get some shots to drop, there’s no reason he can’t go for 55-60 DK points tonight. I like Terry Rozier’s diminished price on the other side of this game (he’s eligible at PG/SG/G and UTIL), and Jimmy Butler appears to be the most viable pivot, as he’ll be looking to lead the Heat to victory following a loss to Atlanta on Thursday. If you don’t have the money for Butler, Jordan Clarkson is a solid value in an up-tempo game against the Rockets where he could be asked to play bigger minutes. UPDATE: With Jimmy Butler out, Zach Lavine ($8,900) is starting to look more and more like a solid play at SG if you want to pivot from Dinwiddie.

Pivot/Value/Stack: Jimmy ButlerZach Lavine/Jordan Clarkson/Terry Rozier

NBA DFS 2/22 — SF

Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL (@ ATL) – DK $4,600

We saw Kristaps Porzingis and Luka go nuts last night, and that’s certainly a team stack that appears to have a better correlation than some other stud combos we’ve seen (LBJ-AD/Harden-Westbrook come to mind as not quite as appealing in DFS). We could see the Mavs give Kristaps a bit of a break tonight and allow Finney-Smith, (whose initials – DFS – are perfect for our purposes here) to flourish against a fast-paced Hawks team that turns the ball over quite a bit. The price on DFS is very affordable (just $4K on FD and a lock there considering what he could do defensively) and there’s 8x upside in this matchup. Possible pivot Kevin Porter Jr. might garner lower ownership after his ejection last night, and I don’t mind Kevin Huerter as a game stack option on the other end. UPDATE: DFS and Hardaway are even better plays with both Luka and Kristaps out. Duncan Robinson get s abump for the Heat with Butler out.

Pivots: Kevin Porter Jr./Kevin Huerter

NBA DFS 2/22 — PF

Jae Crowder, MIA (vs. CLE) – DK $4,800

If there’s a way to fit Giannis and key elements of the DAL-ATL game in your lineups tonight, great – but I’ll be looking for some value at PF, and Crowder makes sense in the $4-5K range. He got off to an impossibly slow start on Thursday night and finished with just 25.5 DK points in 23 minutes, but if he sees 30+ minutes against the Cavs there’s no reason he can’t go for 7X or more. For a few more DK dollars you can spring for Thaddeus Young on a Bulls team that’s short a few big bodies, and Robert Covington is also still affordable in that same price range. UPDATE: Add Kleber to the mix at PF. Crowder could also see more usage with Butler out.

Pivots: Thaddeus Young/Robert Covington

NBA DFS 2/22 — C

Jarrett Allen, BKN (@ CHA) – DK $4,300

Allen got almost no run on Thursday night (zero real-life points and 1.5 DK points in 13 minutes) and the Nets opted to pit veteran center DeAndre Jordan against Joel Embiid (the new Eurostep king). But the price on Allen is now a measly $4,300 and should see 20+ minutes against the Hornets, who will feature Cody Zeller and P.J. Washington (both $4,700 and PF/C eligible on DK). If we hear anything about Allen getting dropped from the rotation before lock we should stay away, but I have no qualms about taking advantage of the affordable price on Allen and taking a fearless foray into the land of the weak Charlotte bigs tonight. If I had the money I would go right back to the well on Bam Adebayo, but I won’t have much left after rostering Luka and some of the other guards in most of my GPP builds. UPDATE: For the minimum price on DK at just $3K, Boban Marjanovic could go nuts in a starting role, and log 15-20 minutes even without the nod. The Mavs are woefully low on bigs, especially if Willie Cauley-Stein remains out.

Pivot/Stack/Punt: Bam Adebayo/Cody Zeller or P.J. Washington/Boban Marjanovic


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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/12 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/12 — PG

Damian Lillard, POR (@ MEM) – DK $10,200

Lillard saw just 29 minutes of action last night, about 10 minutes fewer than his usual 38-40 – the result of a Pelicans blowout win that the Blazers gave up on pretty early in the fourth quarter. Tonight, they face the Grizzlies, who are three games ahead of them in 8th place, and I doubt he goes less than 35 if the Blazers are trying to win this game — which they should be. It’s a Memphis team that yields its most points to combo and scoring guards/wings, so we can look at Lillard in a huge bounce-back spot for GPPs. Stacking him up with Ja Morant is totally viable, as this could turn into a real battle. Trae Young facing the lowly Cavs makes for a good pivot.

Pivot/Stack: Trae Young/Ja Morant

NBA DFS 2/12 — SG

Malik Monk, CHA (@ MIN) – DK $4,700

I’d like to roster a stud at every position, but we’re going to need some value if we’re going to fit in all these upside-laden plays – and Malik Monk (a bench player who routinely sees anywhere between 25 and 35 minutes of court time) makes for a solid GPP gamble at SG. He’s got a 10x ceiling when he’s at the high end of those minutes. If you’re hell-bent on more upside you can spend up to Spencer Dinwiddie or a recently cool Devin Booker, and/or stack with another value play in the same game by selecting another Malik: Malik Beasley – who’s getting plenty of run as a starter with the T-Wolves.

Pivot/Stack: Spencer Dinwiddie/MalikBeasley

NBA DFS 2/12 — SF

Terrence Ross, ORL (vs. DET) – DK $5,100

I’m probably steering clear of the Lakers-Nuggets game tonight, and while LeBron is the obvious spend, exploring value at SF leads me directly to Ross. He plays around 30 minutes every game, has 8x upside and gets a pace-up spot versus a Detroit team that’s lost three straight. If you’d rather play SF Khris Middleton (minus Giannis but at an elevated price of $8,800), that’s well within your rights, but I expect the Pacers will do what they can to stop him tonight and make Brook Lopez and the guards beat them. Aaron Gordon makes sense on DK because he’s also SF-eligible, but his price is up $500 from his 45 DK point effort against the Hawks. I love Knicks SF Reggie Bullock ($4,200) as a value pivot as well, and if you really want to get sneaky, Bucks SG/SF Pat Connaughton ($3,800) saw 26 minutes last game and put up 21.25 DK points.

Pivot/Punt: Reggie Bullock/Pat Connaughton

NBA DFS 2/12 — PF

David Bertans, WAS (@ NY) – DK $5,800

The Wizards said they’d be keeping an eye on the minutes of Moritz Wagner and Rui Hachimura, but the rookie PF/C ended up seeing 32 minutes and posted some of his best all-around numbers as a pro from both ends of the floor. We could see his minutes dip in the second half of a back-to-back, which opens up more opportunities for Bertans, who has plenty of scoring upside on DK and can get hot from three-point range. The Knicks have trouble with versatile forwards like Bertans, as their best players are guards and bigs. We can pair him with Julius Randle and plenty of other players from both sides in game stacks, or pivot to SAC PF Nemanja Bjelica, who’s been logging big minutes in the Kings depleted frontcourt. GPP darling Jaren Jackson Jr. (JJJ) caught my eye as well, but he’s $6,400 and frequently deals with foul trouble. We can go there in POR-MEM game stacks, though.

 Value Pivot/Stack: Nemanja Bjelica or JJJ/JuliusRandle

NBA DFS 2/12 — C

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (vs. CHA) – DK $10,500

If we spent all our money on the guards, we’ll need to roster a punt play like John Henson or a value guy like Dwayne Dedmon – who’s going to fare well back in Atlanta given their need for bigs and his promising (second?) debut for the Hawks (31.75 DK points in 28 minutes). KAT offers 7x and 25-15 upside in this matchup, so we’ll need to mix a few lineups in focusing on the big man in Minnesota. Nikola Jokic is a classic GPP play in a tough matchup but the Lakers will be hell-bent on stopping him with their defensive-minded frontcourt. There’s fearless, and there’s silly. I’d rather tackle the chance that Andre Drummond sees north of 30 minutes, which is all he needs to notch a 20-20 game.

Pivot/Value: Andre Drummond/DwayneDedmon


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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/5 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/5 — PG

Jarrett Culver, MIN (vs. ATL) – DK $3,900

Culver (eligible at PG/G/SF/F/UTIL) should be taking over as the starting point guard for the Wolves and boasts an affordable price tag in a pace-up game. In fact, we can play a bunch of Minnesota players tonight given the reduced rotation and high total – it’s just going to come down to the right combination. Play around with a few different combos in GPPs. If you’re spending up but still need a reasonable price tag, Chris Paul in a favorable matchup makes sense at $7,500. I’m still a little concerned about Trae Young’s ankle, but in the tradition of being fearless, we should roll him out in GPP game stacks along with a few Wolves.

Pivot/Stack: Chris Paul/Trae Young

NBA DFS 2/5 — SG

DeAngelo Russell, GSW (@ BKN) – DK $8,400

Revenge game! Russell faces his old team tonight and this could really see lots of scoring from the guard spots on both sides. We’re still waiting for another 40-50 real-life point breakout from this guy, and while there’s good reason to consider Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, and Andrew Wiggins, I’m intrigued by this matchup and Russell’s 60-65 DK point ceiling.

Pivot/Stack: Andrew Wiggins/SpencerDinwiddie

NBA DFS 2/5 — SF

Kelan Martin, MIN (vs. ATL) – DK $3,300

After a stretch of games inlate December into early January where he started and saw extended minutes,Martin now finds himself as a possible starter in Minnesota after yesterday’sfour-team trade. At such a reduced price and knowing he’s a two-way playercapable of doing some scoring, we can take a shot on him in the hopes of anincreased role in the new rotation (minus Robert Covington, Keita Bates-Dip andNoah Vonleh) right away. I’m only giving him a shot if he’s starting, however.

Pivot/Value Stack: Jimmy Butler/DeAndre Hunter (questionable)

NBA DFS 2/5 — PF

Domantas Sabonis, IND (@ TOR) – DK $9,200

Sabonis has triple-double,60-point upside and is an excellent GPP play tonight given the continuedabsence of T.J. Warren – which has increased his usage tremendously. SinceVictor Oladipo is still on a minutes restriction (it’s been increased to 28minutes), I fully expect the Pacers offense to run through Sabonis againtonight. KP is a viable pivot with enormous upside and stacking with Pascal Siakamor Serge Ibaka could work in a percentage of multi-entry GPP.

Pivot/Stack: Kristaps Porzingis/Pascal Siakam

NBA DFS 2/5 — C

Enes Kanter, BOS (vs. ORL) – DK $4,200

The Celtics might need bigger minutes from Kanter (probable, hip contusion) tonight with Daniel Theis out, and even if he logs 24-28 minutes, he’s got over 2.0 PPM upside. The big man played 16 minutes in his return from injury and the Celtics are a bruised up group in need of live, capable bodies. If you’re not spending up at the center, Kanter makes a lot of sense. If you are really paying up, it should be for Karl-Anthony Town or Andre Drummond.

Pivot/Stack: Steven Adams/Nikola Vucevic


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In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/1 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/1 — PG

Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN (@ WAS) – DK $7,400

Kyrie Irving went nuts last with 54 real-life points (71.25 DK points) in 32 minutes against a weak Chicago Bulls team, and he’s going to draw a lot of ownership against the Wizards tonight. While Dinwiddie isn’t starting, he’s going to have the ball in his hands a lot in the best matchup on the board and could see 30+ minutes off the bench – enough for him to reach his ceiling and hit 7x to 8x value. I’ll have some shares of Trae Young in GPPs as well, but getting exposure to Dinwiddie is a priority.

Pivot/Stack: Trae Young/Ish Smith

NBA DFS 2/1 — SG

DeAngelo Russell, GS (@ CLE) – DK $8,500

Russell draws a dream matchup against a Cavs team who struggles to defend combo and scoring guards, and the recent salary bump is guaranteed to keep a few folks off him. As long as we’re not having too much trouble finding value elsewhere (and being fearless) on this slate, it makes sense to disregard the $500 jump from Thursday and roll out Russell in a spot where he could score 40+ RLF and make 7x or more. I’ll stack him up with KPJ in a few given the young swingman no longer has a minutes restriction.

Pivot/Stack: Bradley Beal/Kevin PorterJr.

NBA DFS 2/1 — SF

Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL (vs. ATL) – DK $5,900

Without Luka Doncic the Mavs are going to need scoring from Hardaway and would have probably gotten some from Kristaps Porzingis – but the latter, who dominated under the basket against the Rockets yesterday when they were without Clint Capela, has been ruled out (rest). The Hawks don’t have a ton of size but do have Damian Jones and John Collins, which means we could see a lot of Maxi Kleber and Boban Marjanovic as well (more on them later). The high-energy THJ is in a great spot and could easily hit 8x or more tonight as his usage will be in the 25-30% range.

Pivot/Value Stack: Jaylen Brown/Cam Reddish

NBA DFS 2/1 — PF

Maxi Kleber, DAL (vs. ATL) – DK $3,800

Porzingis (rest) just got ruled out so we can plug in Maxi Kleber confidently (and fearlessly!), as his usage should see a significant bump without Doncic and KP. I had KP all written up for this pot a few minutes ago, but Kleber offers a significant discount and should be involved on both ends of the court Saturday night. Replacing all those fantasy points is going to be a group effort.

 Pivot/Stack: Jason Tatum/John Collins

NBA DFS 2/1 — C

Dwayne Dedmon, SAC (vs. LAL) – DK $4,900

It’s not a lot of fun rolling out Dedmon, especially with his price up to $4,900 from $3,700 just two nights ago, but he and Harry Giles ($3,000) are the Kings’ only options at center against the Lakers. They’re going to need some size to contend with the LA towers, so if he’s starting, he’s got a good chance of making 7x or more, so he’s an option. With KP ruled out, we could see Boban starting, and if that’s the case, he’s a lock at just $3,000 on DK.

Pivot/Stack: Boban Marjanovic/Dwight Howard (if AD sits)


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