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Toronto Blue Jays

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 07/27

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

With tonight being a full slate of games we’re bound to have a ton of pitching options right? Nope, think again. We have another slate of questionable pitching. Over the past week or so I’ve noticed a trend in which the top pitchers have been coming from the mid-tier and lower-tier. There are a couple of arms in that range that I’m going to focus on for tonight’s slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Kent Maeda ($8.3k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I’ll be honest, I’m not overly enthusiastic about attacking the Tigers lineup right now. They’ve shown a ton of upside of late and if Maeda proves to be the chalk today I may even consider the Tigers as a stack. With all that being said, the price point on Maeda just continues to be too hard to resist.

We’re in a period with pitching where it’s been extremely volatile and I really want some consistency with my pitcher. Over the last 2 months Maeda has only one start where he’s been less than 24 FD points and the majority of his starts have been in the 30’s.

Over the past month Maeda has really been solid. His K rate is sitting at 31% and he has a near 15% swinging strike rate. He’s also done an exceptional job of limiting hard contact with a higher soft contact rate than a hard one.

Facing the Tigers right now is not a safe pick, but at the price of Maeda tonight I just can’t not consider him.

Lance McCullers ($10.5k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Seattle exploded for 11 runs last night. They also struck out 14 times last night, with 9 against Luis Garcia in just 4.2 innings. No team in baseball has struck out more than the Mariners over the past week. They’ve struck out 73 times.

The next closest team is the Indians/Guardians with 59. In DFS strikeouts are what matters with pitching and we have a great combo on our hands tonight in this game. We have a high strike out team and a high strike out pitcher.

Of all the pitchers on the hill tonight, only Robbie Ray has a higher K rate over the past 30 days than McCullers. McCullers CSW of 33.6% over the last month is also second to none of everyone on the hill.

McCullers throws his sinker/slider combo more than 63% of the time. It’s a combo that the Mariners as a team have really struggled against this year. This is a really good spot for McCullers tonight.

Taylor Widener ($6.5k) vs. Texas Rangers – This is my wild card pick tonight. Anytime you pick a guy in this range you have to know the risks. I’m going here for a couple of reasons. The Rangers as a whole have been extremely bad of late.

Over the past week they have a 31% K rate and not generating any power with just a 4% barrel rate and 23% hard hit rate. Widener will rely on both his fastball and slider today. If he throttles up the usage of his slider (Matt Herges, if you’re reading this, do it) tonight he should be in for a solid night.

Rangers have a -22 run value this season vs. sliders. This has the potential to be a high risk/high reward type of pick tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Chicago Cubs vs. Vladimir Gutierrez – Outside of Coors, no stadium is impacted more by the elements than Wrigley. If the wind is blowing in and it’s cool, it’s a pitcher’s paradise. If it’s warm and the wind is blowing out, it’s a hitter’s paradise.

It’s forecasted to be near 90 at first pitch tonight with wind blowing out to right center at more than 10 mph. This is going to be a high scoring game and I want a piece of the action. In this match-up I’m siding the Cubs as they’re facing a pitcher that is giving up fly balls at a 51% rate over the past month.

With giving up that many fly balls in this type of environment tonight, we have the potential for a little home run derby. Gutierrez gives up way more fly balls to lefties but he also has a .222 ISO against righties so we can really target him with the entire lineup.

If we look at the lefties first we’ll see they’ll get a heavy dose of curveballs. Anthony Rizzo ($3.3k) has a .325 ISO against right handed curveballs over the past few years and I’ll use him as a building block of this stack.

Other guys I’ll look to include based on success against sliders are Kris ‘future Met’ Bryant ($4k), Wilson Contrares ($3.1k), and Patrick Wisdom ($3k).

Washington Nationals vs. Matt Moore – Moore is on the list. He’s on the list of pitchers I make it a point to stack against. Last time out against the Braves it proved to be successful as he gave up 6 ER in 6 IP. The match-up tonight is even tougher for him as he’s facing a lineup that has been really good against lefties this year.

First the ‘Why’ as to why we’re attacking Moore. In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up a 40% hard hit rate, 44% fly ball rate, and just a 21% K rate. He’s the ideal type of pitcher to attack.

He is an extreme splits type of pitcher. We want to attack him with righties and the two guys right off the bat I want are Trea Turner ($4.3k) and Ryan Zimmerman ($2.6k). Both have ISO’s greater than .250 on the year and have long records of being successful against lefties.

While Moore is pretty good against lefties, I expect this game to go to the bullpen early so Juan Soto ($4.4k) should be included in any Nats stack tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Garrett Richards – The Blue Jays somewhat disappointed last night in a great match-up vs. Pivetta. They get an equally good, if not better match-up tonight vs. Richards.

This going to be the fifth time they’ve faced Richards this year. In 3 out of the first 4 outings, they’ve managed to put up 4 runs against him. They just match up very well with him and his pitch type.

Guerrero ($4.5k), Springer ($4.3k), and Hernandez ($3.7k) are my favorite targets here as they crush fastballs and that’s what they’ll see the most tonight. If McGuire ($2.2k) is behind the plate again tonight he’ll make a nice cheap addition to this stack and gives you the wrap around with Springer.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

With pitching tonight we’ll want to exploit lineups that have not been hitting much of late and we’ll get that with both McCullers and Widener. We’ll also want to take advantage of the ideal hitting conditions in Chicago.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports . Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/26

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Salvador Perez vs. Dallas Keuchel

No pitcher on tonight’s slate is giving up homers over the past 30 days at a quicker pace than Dallas Keuchel. In his last 21 innings of work he’s given up 5. For a pitcher that’s always been considered a ground ball pitcher, that’s bad.

The guy on the Royals that matches up the best for a homer tonight is Salvador Perez. Keuchel’s main pitches tonight will be his sinker which he throws about 36% of the time and his changeup at about 31% of the time.

His sinker has been getting crushed this year with a .508 slugging % and a near 47% hard hit rate. Perez has a .456 slugging % and a near 48% hard hit rate vs. the pitch this year. Look for Perez to take Keuchel deep tonight. Confidence Level – High

Vladimir Guerrero vs. Nick Pivetta

Nick Pivetta is another pitcher that gives up homers at a pretty fast pace. In his last 22 innings of work he’s given up 5 homers. During the same stretch he’s given up a way too high fly ball rate of 42%. Against a powerful lineup like the Blue Jays giving up that many fly balls is a recipe for disaster.

PIvetta throws a ton of fastballs. More than 50% of the time. No batter in baseball has been better at hitting the fastball than Guerrero this year.

Against the pitch he has an insane .842 slugging % and a 63% hard hit rate. If Pivetta leaves one of his fastballs over the plate tonight to Guerrero, it has no chance of staying in the park. Confidence Level – Extremely High

George Springer vs. Nick Pivetta

I’m not straying too far from Guerrero as I also think his teammate George Springer takes Pivetta deep. Like Guerrero, Springer has great numbers against fastballs this season. He has an .806 slugging %, a .482 wOBA, and a 48% hard hit rate.

While not quite as good as Guererro, Springer is no slouch against the fastball and I really like his chances of leading off the game tonight with a homer. Confidence Level – High

Jose Abreu vs. Mike Minor

The White Sox should put up a big number tonight. Minor over the last 30 days has an xFIP of 5.53. He’s been getting hit hard and giving up a ton of fly balls. His hard hit rate over that period is 35% and his fly ball rate is 38.2%. Giving up that many fly balls that are hit that hard means there’s a much higher chance of giving up a homer.

The guy on the White Sox that takes Minor deep will be Jose Abreu. From a pitch mix stand point he lines up great as he has great numbers vs. 4 seamers and sliders this year. His slugging % is greater than .500 to both pitches. Confidence Level – Highish

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight have been very susceptible to the long ball or are giving up a ton of barrels. And with barrels often times we see homers too. Look for a ton of offense in Boston tonight with Blue Jays taking Pivetta deep multiple times.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/21

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Home Run Blast

Yordan Alvarez vs. Eli Morgan

Eli Morgan is someone that will eventually turn into a solid pitcher. He’s got solid swing and miss stuff when he’s on, as evidenced by his 11.6% swinging strike rate over the past month. That said, he’s still raw and leaving far too many pitches over the plate.

On the year he’s giving up a 53% fly ball rate with a 47% hard hit rate. He’s been pretty consistent across both sides of the plate as both righties and lefties have an ISO of .300 against him. He’s going to throw Alvarez a mix of fastballs and change ups tonight. Alvarez has had a ton of success against change-ups with a .266 ISO against. Confidence Level – High

Rhys Hoskins vs. Asher Wojciechowski

Woj is making his 2021 debut with a spot start for the Yankees. He last pitched in the Majors in 2020 with the O’s. As someone who has watched a ton of O’s baseball, we’re in for a treat tonight. Over the last few years Woj just has not been able to find success at the Major League level.

Since 2019 his xFIP is sitting at 5.53. That’s a pretty high number and it indicates that we should be able to find some fly balls and homers. My lean here is to the right side of the plate as Woj gives up a 50% fly ball rate to righties. To righties, Woj will throw a mix of a low 90’s fastball, slider, and curve. Hoskins has historically done well against all three of these pitches. Confidence Level – Medium/High

George Springer vs. Garrett Richards

Richards has been one of the most affected pitchers in the game since the ban of the sticky stuff. Over his last 17 innings of work he has a 6.03 xFIP to go with 5 homers and 6 barrels. This is someone that we should take full advantage of. The guy here I’m most interested in is Springer. He just lines up so well tonight.

Richards throws his 94 mph fastball almost 50% of the time to righties. Over the last several seasons Springer has a .733 ISO against this pitch with an average distance of 377 feet. That’s just insane. The next pitch he’ll likely see tonight is a slider. He has a .227 ISO against this pitch. Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight have been very susceptible to the long ball. If you want to go a little bit of a different route, JT Realmuto stands a good chance to also homer against Woj and Guerrero against Richards. All three games should see a healthy amount of long balls tonight.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Wednesday – 07/21

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Eventually we’ll get a solid pitching slate right? We’ve got some dicey pitching again tonight that we’ll need to navigate though. With dicey pitching comes solid stacks though.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lance McCullers ($10.2k) vs. Cleveland Indians – This is a little more than I’d like to pay for McCullers but on a slate like tonight we may be forced to. Over the past 30 days McCullers has seen an small uptick in strike outs. His K rate during that time is a little more than 31% compared to 29% on the year.

We know we’re going to get someone that has elite K upside and that’s what we want in GPP’s. The lineup he’s projected to face tonight has a 27% K rate vs. righties this year. The Indians have really struggled coming out of the AS break. They’ve K’d 49 times in just 149 at bats and have just 6 barrels. Look for McCullers to take full advantage of a struggling lineup.

Adam Wainwright ($8.8k) vs. Chicago Cubs – The goal tonight will be find pitchers that won’t get us negative points. Kidding. Kind of. Wainwright hasn’t had a single start this season where he finished under 20 FD points. So know we have a floor with him.

Wainwright isn’t a strike out pitcher at this point in his career. His K rate over the past 30 days is only 21%. He has shown some K upside though at times with more than a handful of games over 7 K’s. With the match-up today there’s definitely a real shot at getting to that 7 K number again.

Like the Indians, the Cubs have really struggled out of the gates since the break. Of the teams in the main slate tonight, only the Indians have struck out more over the past week. While I don’t see Wainwright getting us 50 FD points, I do think there’s a real shot at a 30 point floor tonight. With some of the struggles we’ve seen with starting pitching of late, I will 100% take that.

Robbie Ray ($10.6k) vs. Boston Red Sox – This is a high risk high reward pick for tonight. Ray has been one of the better and more consistent pitchers on the year. He has an elite 32% K rate and a 3.28 xFIP. He has consistently plowed through solid lineups such that have historically been very good against lefties.

The match-up tonight against the Red Sox is not an easy one. They have a power house lineup. That said, Ray is an ace and has the ability to overpower any lineup.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Garrett Richards – Richards post sticky stuff has been bad. He’s been one of the most affected pitchers in the game. Let’s look at his numbers over the past 30 days. 6.03 xFIP to go with 5 homers and 6 barrels in just 17 innings of work.

He’s someone that when on the mound we should look to take full advantage of. His match-up today is about as bad as bad can be. He’s facing a Blue Jays team that has just crushed righties all season long. They have a .796 OPS, .195 ISO, and 115 wRC+. Guerrero ($4.5k), Springer ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.4k) all profile extremely well tonight against Richards’ pitch mix and should be in your stack.

Detroit Tigers vs. Jordan Lyles – Lyles had a handful of starts recently that looked great from a distance. He had back to back 40 fd point outings and a 31 pointer. It was all smoke and mirrors. In the two 40 point games he had a 90 LOB % and an 86% LOB %. In both starts he gave up a healthy amount of hard contact.

Lyles has 9 starts this season in which he’s given up multiple barrels. He is a low strike out pitcher who gives up way too many fly balls and way too much hard contact. He is the type of pitcher you want to and have to target in DFS.

Once a laughing stock of baseball, the Tigers are now just 6 games under .500. They’re riding a 5 game winning streak and against Lyles today I like them to make it 6. Lyles is the type of pitcher who is bad against both sides of the plate. His ISO against the last couple of years is .204 to lefties and .202 to righties.

With the Tigers you need to go all in or fade. They don’t hit too many homers so we need to make sure our players correlate well. The guys I’m focused on today will be Baddoo ($3.1k), Schoop ($3.4k), Grossman ($3.2k), and Candelario ($2.7k). Haase ($2.8k) is also an interchangeable part of this stack.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Asher Wojciechowski – Woj as I like to call him from his day with O’s is just not a good major league pitcher. He’s making what is most likely just a spot start for the Yankees today. He hasn’t pitched in the Majors this year but has struggled in a short stint in the minors.

If we look at the last couple of years we see that he gives up a ton of fly balls and hard contact. He is mostly a fastball pitcher with his fb sitting in the very low 90’s. Realmuto ($3.4k), Hoskins ($3.5k), and Miller ($2.4k) are my building blocks here as they have crushed fastballs this year with hard hit rates over 56%. The Yankees bullpen hasn’t been as bad of late so the hope here is that they keep Woj in long enough to do a ton of damage.

There are a ton of other stacks that could be talked about as well tonight. Houston is also in an incredible spot as Morgan is giving up a ton of fly balls and hard contact (the key to finding success with stacks). My hunch is that they’ll be a popular target and ownership will be high on them. If I’m going to eat chalk, I’d rather eat it with Blue Jays than Astros.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Tonight will be about picking the right stack. We have a handful of teams that are facing pitchers that are gas cans and should put up big numbers. For pitching, I’m going to focus on pitchers that have a safer floor tonight. It’s a different type of strategy that isn’t normally one that wins a GPP but with how bad pitching has been of late, it may end up working.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/11

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

It’s the final slate before the All Star break so let’s make it a good one. We have a bunch of solid mid-tiered options today on the hill and a few good hitting environments.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jose Berrios ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Berrios is a little more expensive than I’d like, but he gets a great match-up today vs. the K heavy Detroit Tigers. On the year the Tigers have really struggled against righties. They have a near 27% K rate while hitting for limited power.

If we look at more recent data, we can see that the Tigers have really been struggling of late. Over the past week they have a 29% K rate. Even Happ was able to man handle them recently. Berrios himself is coming off a 10k performance. It was the first time he reached double digits all year. Can he do it again? The match-up is out there for him a repeat.

Pablo Lopez ($9.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – The Braves lineup took a huge blow last night when they lost Acuna for the year. He is the catalyst of their lineup. My hope is that Lopez can take advantage of that huge today. Also without Acuna in the lineup today we don’t run the risk of Lopez throwing at him today and getting tossed after the first batter.

Lopez has been really solid of late. He’s been dialing up more K’s over the past month as his K rate is sitting at 31% compared to 26% on the year. While the Braves have solid numbers vs. righties this year, they also have an above average K rate sitting at 25%. Acuna being out will only raise that number. Look for Lopez to have a solid day today and end up being one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Brandon Woodruff ($11.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – Woodruff is getting to take on a lineup today that has been striking out a ton over the past week. In the last 7 days the Reds have a 27% K rate. I want to take advantage of that today and the good thing for us is that we get a strike out pitcher against them.

Woodruff on the year has a 31% K rate. If we take out his last start against the Mets (we’ll get to them shortly) Woodruff has been great of late. He struck out 9 Dbacks and then 8 Cubs in back to back starts. I like Woodruff to get back on the saddle today and rack up his 8-9 K’s against the reds.

While I didn’t write him up, Robbie Ray ($10.4k) is also in play for GPP’s. He’s an elite strike out pitcher taking on a team that K’s a high clip vs. lefties. They also hit for a ton of power against lefties so it’s a high boom or bust pick.

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Mets vs. Chase De Jong – It’s been close to two months since I wrote the Mets up as a stack. Their lineup had been beaten and bruised for the better part of that time. Well they are finally healthy and I want to see what they can do against Chase De Jong.

De Jong has really struggled over the past 30 days (longer than that). He’s giving up a ton of hard contact 41% to go along with a high fly ball rate of 41%. He’s someone that we can exploit with both sides of the plate as he has an ISO greater than .240 to righties and lefties.

Alonso ($3.8k) is the key to this lineup as he’s been red hot of late. He has 4 homers in the last week to go along with 5 barrels. Lindor ($3.2k) has also been better of late and I’ll want to include him in any Mets stack I use today. Look for the Mets to put up a big number today.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Rich Hill – This is not a match made in heaven for Hill today. First, let’s look at what Hill has done over the past month. 6 homers in his last 24 innings of work and a 5.56 xFIP. Over his last 5 games he’s given up 4 ER 3 times. I want to try to take advantage of this today.

If we look at pitch make up, we can absolutely exploit him. He throws his curveball more than 40% of the time to righties. Blue Jays have a bunch of guys that hit for a ton of power against left handed curveballs. Springer ($3.7k) has a .533 ISO against it, Hernandez ($3.2k) has a .292 ISO, and Grichuk ($3.1k) has a .267 ISO. These guys should be able to do some damage against Hill today.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta faces his former teammates for the first time. I think by the end of the day Pivetta wishes he was still on that Phillies team. Pivetta has been giving up home runs at a pretty high pace of late. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 8. If we add in the fact that he has a 3.54 BB/9 we know that here’s a pitcher we can take advantage of.

Pivetta is throwing his 4 seamer more than 50% of the time to both sides of the plate this year. Up and down the lineup this has been a pitch that the Phillies have had a ton of success against this season. Realmuto ($3.3k), Hoskins ($3.7k), and Miller ($2.6k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 to the pitch this year. Harper ($4.1k) is sitting at .493. It’s really going to be a tough day for PIvetta. With the Phillies rolling of late and a great match-up they are my top stack today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. With it being the final day before the All Star break, it’s even more important to keep an extra eye on lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/08

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

With this slate we have a pitcher’s duel out west with Darvish vs. Mad Max. Both guys should be fun to watch tonight. We also have my favorite pitcher to stack against, Mr. J.A. Happ.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($10.9k) vs. San Diego Padres – This isn’t going to be the easiest of match-ups for Scherzer as the Padres have a potent lineup. That said, if there’s anyone out there that can silence the Padres it’s Scherzer.

On the year Max has a 35.4% K rate. If we look at his splits, it’s been pretty even against both sides of the plate. I’m siding with Max in this match-up due to his pitch mix. He throws his slider more than 38% of the time to righties and it’s a pitch he can silence Tatis and Machado with. Both have high whiff rates against this pitch. If you can silence those 2 guys, you’re off to a good start. Not an easy match-up for Scherzer tonight, but he’s my SP1.

Taijuan Walker ($9.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – We’ll need to monitor the weather in this game as there is rain in the forecast this evening. If the game plays, I really like Walker tonight. While the Pirates aren’t going to K much, Walker should do enough to return value.

Over the past month his K rate is right up there with Scherzer and Darvish. It’s sitting right around the 30% mark. He’s been doing this by really fooling batters. He has the lowest swing rate in the zone of any pitcher going tonight. By a pretty wide margin too. Batters have only been swinging at 64% of his pitches in the zone. Look for Walker to have one of his better games tonight.

Tarik Skubal ($8.2k) vs. Minnesota Twins – This is more of a boom or bust pick which is ideal for GPP’s. I’m chasing the upside of Skubal in this one. He’s gotten at least 6 K’s in 8 of his last 9 games and the Twins have been striking out a bunch over the past week. Their K rate over the past week is 27% which is the third highest of any team going tonight.

Yes, this match-up poses a risk for Skubal because the Twins have been really good against lefties this year with a lot of power. However, Skubal has shown at times he can handle teams that are solid against lefties with great games against the White Sox, Yankees, and Houston. This is a high risk/high reward pick that is not for the faint of heart.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. J.A. Happ – It wouldn’t be a Happ slate without me recommending bats against him. Are the Tigers a good offense? Nope. Is Happ a bad pitcher? YES. In my mind bad hitting > bad pitching. While the projected Tigers lineup today has a 28% K rate vs. lefties, they also have a .352 wOBA and a .232 ISO.

Happ is not someone that I’m scared of in terms of strike outs. His CSW over the past month is just 23%. That is tied with Houser for the worst mark on today’s slate. Happ’s been especially bad to righties this year with a 46% fly ball rate and a 43% hard hit rate. I’m locking in Schoop ($3k), Haase ($2.9k), and Grossman ($3.3k). All have shown power against lefties this year with ISO’s great than .200.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin – This is going to be a chalky stack, but on a short slate sometimes you need to eat the chalk. Akin is giving up a homer every 3 innings over the past month. That’s just not good. If we look at this contact type, we also see he’s giving up a ton more hard contact than soft. His hard minus soft rate is sitting at 24% over the past month. Just not a pitcher you want on the hill facing the best lineup in baseball.

With the Orioles blowing through their pen last night due to another short outing from Harvey there’s a very good chance they ask Akin to go longer than he normally would if he gets shelled. This is a good thing for us. Guerrero ($4.7k), Gurriel ($3.3k), Hernandez ($3.5k), and Grichuk ($3.6k) are my main targets as they have had the best success against lefties this year.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tarik Skubal – If you aren’t using Skubal as your pitcher tonight, I highly recommend considering the Twins as a stack. While Skubal has made great strides over the past couple of months, he’s also still shown the propensity to give up homers and hard contact.

His hard hit rate over the past month is sitting close to 50% and his line drive % is nearly 28%. If he isn’t missing any bats, he’s giving up some pretty hard contact. With the Twins we’re getting a team that has been great this season vs. lefties. They own a 107 wRC+ and a .763 OPS. Both very strong indicators of success against south paws.

I’m focused on righties here as Skubal’s fly ball rate vs. righties this year is nearly 48% with a 40% hard hit rate. Cruz ($4k),Polanco ($3.1k), and Jeffers ($2.1k) are my main targets here.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Weather will play a main factor tonight. Half the games are under the threat of rain or thunder showers. We’ll need to keep an eye on things and make sure our pitchers and batters are safe.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/07

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Today I’ll be walking you through some of my favorite spots for the More or Less, strike out edition! I picked spots where we have some high strike out teams and low strike out teams. Let’s see if we can find some K’s, and not find some K’s.

More or Less – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Prize 2.5x

Matt Harvey Under/Hyun Jin Ryu Under

A few years ago a 3.5 K total for Matt Harvey would have been unheard of. He would have had that by the third inning. A lot has changed for Harvey over the past few years. His prime was short and he’s well past his prime.

There are a couple of reasons I’m going with under for Harvey. Over the past 30 days Harvey’s K rate is sitting at 12.5% and his CSW is just 24.9%. He’s not fooling batters and he’s definitely not missing any bats.

The other reason is that the Blue Jays have been dominant against righties. They are striking out just 22% against the time and have a high OPS of .787. It’s going to be a short day for Harvey with him getting 3 K’s at most.

A lot of what I wrote for Harvey could also be said for Ryu. Just not the whole being past his prime part. Ryu has been in a little bit of a funk over the past month. He too hasn’t been striking out many batters. His K rate over the past month is almost identical to Harvey’s. It’s sitting at just 12.3%.

His match-up today is surprisingly not an easy one. The casual fan will look at the Orioles record on the year and think they are one of the worst teams in the league. Well technically they are. It’s 100% related to their pitching though as their offense has been pretty good. Especially against lefties.

They have been pretty dominant against lefties this year. They have a high OPS of .767 and just a 22% K rate. I don’t see how Ryu lasts long enough to get his 5 K’s tonight. The under on this one seems like a slam dunk.

More or Less – Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers – Prize 2.5x

Kyle Gibson Over/Casey Mize Under

This game has two teams that have high strike out rates. Starting with Gibson, he’s facing a projected lineup today that has a 28% K rate to righties on the year. While Gibson isn’t a high strike out pitcher, he’s shown the ability on occasion to dial it back and rack up some K’s. In his last 12 innings of work he has 17 K’s. With the Tigers high propensity to strike out against righties, I really like this spot for him to get his 6 K’s today and hit the over.

Casey Mize also gets a team that strike outs at an above average rate, but I just don’t think he has enough swing and miss stuff to get his 5 strike outs today. Mize is going to face a pretty left handed lineup today and if we look at his metrics he has just a 21% K rate against lefties.

If we look even deeper, he’s going to throw a ton of mid 90’s fastballs today with a mix of sinkers. It’s two pitches that the Rangers normally fare pretty well against. Look for Mize to keep it under 5 K’s today.

More or Less – Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels – Prize 2.5x

Eduardo Rodriguez Under/Andrew Heaney Under

We have a battle of the south paws in Los Angeles today. Both the Angels and Red Sox have been two of the better teams vs. lefties this year so I’m expecting short outings from both pitchers.

Starting with Rodriguez he’s facing a projected Angels lineup that has a 22% K rate vs. lefties this year. While Rodriguez has gotten 7 K’s or more in 4 of his last 6 outings, they were against teams that strike out more than the Angels do. I just don’t see him having the K strength to get to 7 today.

Heaney gets an equally tough match-up today as he’s facing a Red Sox team that doesn’t K much against lefties. They have just a 21% K rate vs. lefties and hit for a lot of power with a .173 ISO.

The Red Sox should throw out 7 righties today so expect to see a ton of fastballs from Heaney. If we look at how they have fared against his pitch type we can make the assumption there won’t be many K’s for Heaney. 6 would be super tough for him. Going with the under here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 06/27

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

**FD still has the CHW/SEA game on the main slate. I think they’ll follow suit from what DK did and remove it from the main slate since the game is now at 4:30.

Today’s FD slate brings us a couple of studs on the mound and then some mid-range guys that may fit nicely with the Blue Jays. We also have some of my favorite pitchers to pick on, Chi Chi and Happ.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($11.2k) vs. Miami Marlins – Mad Max showed a little rust in his last outing after having only thrown 12 pitches over the previous 18 days. In that outing, while he still struck out 8 Phillies, he did throw 106 pitches in 5 IP. My money says he has a much more efficient outing vs. the Marlins today.

Scherzer gets to face off against a team today has really struggled against righties this season. On the year they have a 25% K rate and a measly .135 ISO. Scherzer faced this team earlier this year and had a 9 inning 9 k performance.

While complete games are few and far between these days and I don’t see that happening again, having another 9K performance certainly is within the realm of possibilities.

Patrick Sandoval ($7.8k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – There’s always risk in using pitchers against the Rays as they have a bunch of guys that can homer at any time. They also have a bunch of guys that can K multiple times a game and that’s what we’re chasing in DFS.

On the year the Rays have a 28% K rate against lefties. Of all the teams going today, that’s the highest mark if we look at the handedness of who they are facing.

In Sandoval we’re getting a guy who I think should be at least $1k more expensive than he is. Over the past 30 days Sandoval has a near 33% K rate. That’s in the elite category. He’s also doing a great job limiting hard contact. He’s actually giving up more soft contact than he is hard. Again there’s always a risk in using pitchers vs. the Rays, but this is a good match-up for Sandoval.

Jake Odorizzi ($7.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – After struggling to start the year, Odorizzi has been pitching pretty well of late. Over his last 30 days he has a 3.31 xFIP and a K rate nearing 29%. He’s also been doing a great job of limiting hard contact which is at just 26%. The lineup he’s projected to face today has a 25% K rate on the year to righties. At only $7.6k, we really don’t need much to return value. I’m going to most likely use one of Scherzer or Sandoval, but you could do a lot worse than Odorizzi today.

I noticeably left off both Wheeler and Cole from my list of pitchers. I don’t like either match-up for them, especially at their price points. Wheeler is $11k facing a healthy Mets lineup. He also looked very shaky in his last outing. Could it have been related to no more sticky substances? It very well could be.

Cole is also $11k and facing a very a good Red Sox lineup. He has not been himself over the past 30 days with just a 25% K rate. I’m off both of them today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Blue Jays are the clear cut favorite stack of the day. While Lopez hasn’t been awful over the past 30 days, he’s giving up a ton of contact, of which nearly 40% of it his hard contact. A pitcher throwing to contact vs. a lineup like the Blue Jays is just a recipe for disaster.

Lopez throws his sinker more than 35% of the time to both sides of the plate. Blue Jays, up and down this lineup, have a ton of success vs. this pitch. Semien ($3.7k), Bichette ($4.3k), Springer ($4k), Biggio ($3.3k), Grichuk ($3k), and Gurriel ($3k) all have ISO’s greater than .220 vs. this pitch.

If using this stack today, you could certainly make the case to fade Guerrero as the “other” guys in this lineup are all set up to have a great day and come at a discount from him. Blue Jays have a 6.72 IRT as I write this. The only reason to fade them today is to be different and hope they all forgot how to hit overnight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – Gonzalez is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. When he’s on the mound, I’m stacking against him. On the year he has a 5.17 xFIP, a 13% K rate, and a 41% hard hit rate. So we have someone that gives up a ton of contact with a healthy amount of that contact being hard contact. In his last 20 innings of work he’s given up 8 barrels. That’s just an absurd rate.

If we dig into splits data, Gonzalez has been giving up more hard contact to righties than lefties. This means we really don’t need to worry about platoon splits much because even righties are tagging him. My main targets from Milwaukee today will be Wong ($3.1k) if he’s back in the lineup, Yelich ($3.8k), Garcia ($2.7k), and Narvaez ($2.4k). If Wong is out I could see Bradley ($2.1k) being moved up to the lead-off spot. Should that happen, I’d love him in the spot.

Cleveland Indians vs. J.A. Happ – Happ’s xFIP is nearing 6 at this point. On the year it’s at 5.93. That’s bad. There’s really nothing else you can say about it. He’s been especially bad against righties this year. He’s giving up a .263 ISO, a 48% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate vs. righties.

I’m loading up on guys from the right side of the plate today. The top 3 guys vs. lefties this year from the Indians surprisingly don’t include Jose Ramirez ($4.2k). While he’s still in play, he’s expensive. Hernandez ($3.1k), Amed Rosario ($2.6k), and Harold Ramirez ($2.8k) all have ISO’s over .200 this year and come at steep discounts over JRam. Those 3 guys plus Scherzer still gives you nearly $3,100 per player to fill out your roster.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. It’s going to be a hot one on the east coast today so games that are in New York, Boston, and Buffalo may seem some extra offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 6/24

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Pitching options are pretty limited tonight. However, we have a couple of pitchers with good match-ups that we can exploit. We also have 2 high powered offenses in great match-ups.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Walker Buehler ($11k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Buehler gets tonight what I think is a phenomenal match-up. Cubs have really been struggling to put the bat on the ball over the past couple of weeks. In the last 2 weeks the Cubbies have a near 30% K rate. The worst in baseball. Statistically speaking, they’ve been one of the worst offenses in the game over the last few weeks.

Yes, they have some bats in the lineup that can hit some homers but they are really struggling to get anyone on with just a .248 OBP. So even if they put the ball over the fence it’s going to be a solo shot. Any chance I can get, I’m going to attack this offense until they show signs of life. While Buehler’s K rate is down this year, I do feel like there’s upside tonight with the struggling Cubs.

Luis Garcia ($9.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Garcia has been a pretty dominant pitcher over the last month. Over the past 30 days he has a 3.48 xFIP and a 27% K rate. In his last 5 outings he’s reached 46 points or greater. He’s really been on a roll.

Today he gets to face off against a team that has struggled as a whole against righties this season. They have a 26% K rate and an ISO of just .158. If we look at their projected lineup today, we can see they have a 29% K rate against righties this year. This a great spot for Garcia today.

Joe Ross ($7.4k) vs. Miami Marlins – I said pitching options were limited today, I wasn’t kidding. I don’t really love this pick, but on a night where options are limited I want to attack weak offenses. And if we look at what Ross has done recently, he really hasn’t been that bad and his salary gives us the ability to grab the top stacks.

In the last 30 days Ross is pitching to a sub 4 xfip and has been striking out more batters with a near 26% K rate. Marlins haven’t done much damage to righties this year with an OPS of .672 and an ISO of just .135. This is far from a safe pick, but I like the match-up here.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Houston Astros vs. Jose Urena – This is going to be a chalky stack. There’s no denying that the Astros are lapping the field in terms of offense. If we look at what they’ve done over the past 2 weeks we can see they are far ahead of everyone else. They have a wRC+ of 159. The next closest team is the Giants at 129. They’re rolling.

You can make a case to fade them tonight and hope they struggle, but due to the match-up it won’t be a very strong case. They get to face off against Urena who has struggled mightily over the past 30 days. His xFIP during that period is 7.19.

He is a groundball pitching who is giving up way more fly balls than he normally does. On the year he has a 26% FB rate – over the past 30 days it’s at 42%. Everyone in this lineup is playable tonight. The hottest 4 in the lineup right now are Carlos Correa ($4.2k), Brantley ($3.7k), Toro ($2.1k), and Alvarez ($3.8k). All have wRC+’s over 200 in the past week.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dean Kremer – With the Astros being the major expected chalk tonight, it may make the Blue Jays a little less owned than they should be. They’re getting a great match-up tonight against another pitcher that’s struggling.

Kremer over the past 30 days is giving up an almost 39% hard hit rate and has given up 5 barrels in just 15 innings of work. He’s also giving up a ton of fly balls with a FB rate of 54%. Kremer throws his 93 mph fastball more than 50% of the time to both sides of the plate. Looking at how the Blue Jays handle that pitch, it’s going to be a long night for Kremer.

Guerrero ($4.3k) and Hernandez ($3k) both have ISO’s greater than .340 to this pitch and hard hit rates over 55%. With Springer ($3.6k) healthy this lineup is back to full strength and ready to do some damage. Tonight they will do some damage

Washington Nationals vs. Cody Poteet – 53% fly ball rate, 43% hard hit rate, and 8 barrels over the past month. That’s Poteet in a nutshell. If you are using the Nationals today, your stack needs to start with Schwarber ($4k) who is red hot. He has 6 homers over the past week and a .591 wOBA.

The Nationals made the right bet by putting him in the leadoff spot. Since his move he’s done nothing but rake. Poteet’s splits are pretty neutral so there’s no need to worry about focusing on the left side of the plate.

Outside of Schwarber, both Turner ($4.3k) and Castro ($2.3k) are swinging hot bats with OPS’s greater than 1.000 and wOBA’s greater than .450 over the past week.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Tonight on FD the recipe seems pretty clear to me. Take some Buehler or Garcia and then grab bats from either the Blue Jays or Astros.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 06/20

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Before we kick things into gear I wanted to wish all those dads out there a happy father’s day. Hope you get to enjoy your day.

Today’s FD slate brings us something we don’t normally get to see on a Sunday, the Coors game is included in the main slate. Any time there’s a game in Coors, I try to look for a reason to fade rather than a reason to play it. Chi Chi Rodriguez is on the hill for Colorado today so there’s no reason to fade it.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Taijuan Walker ($9.4k) vs. Washington Nationals – Walker has been absolutely brilliant in his last 2 outings. He has 21 K’s in 14 innings of work. Is that something we should expect every time out? Probably not. But if we look at his larger body of work for the year, he’s been pretty damn good.

Over the past 30 days Walker has been even better. He has a 3.23 xFIP and a near 33% K rate. While both numbers compared to his whole season of work indicate there may be some regression, I do like his chances of continue his solid stretch today vs. the Nationals.

On the season the Nationals haven’t really hit for much power vs. righties. They have a .678 OPS and just a .136 ISO. I expect his K’s to come down from his last outing, but I do think he strikes out enough batters to pay off his salary. At $9.4k, he’s also not going to break the bank.

Kent Maeda ($7k) vs. Texas Rangers – Maeda is someone that won’t go deep for you. But with his price today, we don’t need that. We need someone that will go 5-6 innings and strikeout a batter per. In Maeda and with his match-up, there’s a strong level of confidence he can do that.

Rangers projected lineup today has a 26% strike out rate vs. righties. If we look at Maeda’s pitch mix we can see his pitch of choice is the slider. Outside of Nate Lowe, this is a pitch that the Rangers mostly struggle with. Almost the entire lineup has a whiff rate greater than 34%. There’s going to be some upside to Maeda today.

Zach Thompson ($5.5k) vs. Chicago Cubs – This is a risk it or biscuit type of call. I will more than likely be locking in Walker and moving on today, but I like attacking the Cubs with righties. They’ve shown a high propensity to strike out in bunches. On the year, they have a 25% strike out rate to righties.

They managed just 1 hit yesterday vs. Lopez and only 3 on the day. Thompson looked really good in his last outing against a much better lineup in the Braves. Could he replicate that performance today against the Cubbies? There’s a decent chance.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Matt Harvey – Blue Jays will be chalky today. They’re facing a pitching in Harvey who is just absolutely struggling and at some point the Orioles will have to pull the plug on this Harvey experiment.

Over the past 30 days Harvey has a 4.5 xFIP and has given up 5 homers in just 17 innings of the work. Where you really want to attack Harvey is with lefties as he’s giving up a 43% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate. This makes getting Biggio ($3.3k) into your lineup a priority.

Righties are doing plenty of damage against him too so guys like Guerrero ($4.6k) and Semien ($3.8k) should also be part of any stack. Gurriel ($2.8k) is the cheapest of the bunch and profiles extremely well against Harvey so you should try to get some exposure to him as well.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Rodriguez – I touched on this in the open but with Coors slates I try to look for a reason to not play the game due to it normally being a chalky spot. I just can’t ignore the spot today with Rodriguez on the hill.

He has been just brutal “this” year. He has a 5.17 xFIP and is only striking out 13% of the batters he’s facing. He’s also giving up a ton of hard contact at 41%. Batters just tee off on him.

With Gomber getting pulled early last night the Rockies had to use 5 different relievers. They’re taxed. This could very well mean we get a longer outing out of Rodriguez today. And I love that.

Rodriguez has been worse against righties with a 51% hard hit rate to them. This means we should prioritize getting in Adames ($3.2k), Urias ($3.5k), and Garcia ($3.8k). Yes, you read that right. 3 guys under $4k, in Coors, against the worst pitcher in baseball. All batters in this lineup should be in play today though.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin – While Corbin doesn’t give too many homers, he does give up a ton of hard contact. This means if you decided to use the Mets as a stack today, you need to go all in and not chase homers.

Corbin is giving up a 45% hard hit rate this year to go along with his 5 xFIP. He tends to give up more fly balls to righties so we need to try squeeze them in. If we look at pitch data we see that his pitch of choice to righties is the sinker.

Alonso ($4.1k), McCann ($3k), and Pillar ($2.7k) all come into play as they have ISO’s greater than .300 to left handed sinkers. Jonathan Villar ($3.5k) also profiles very well against Corbin.

They aren’t in the my top 3 (I’d probably rank them 3.5), but you can’t ignore what the Orioles have done against lefties this year. The Orioles have a near .800 OPS and .342 wOBA.

They are also dirt cheap on FD today and will make a fine compliment to one of your expensive stacks. Mountcastle ($2.5k) had a hat trick yesterday and is a great value. Mancini ($3.1k) has an ISO over .320 this year against lefties. Don’t sleep on the Orioles today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is very suspect today. Only one team so far has an IRT less than 4. This slate has the makings of a home run derby type of day with some of the gas cans going.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Toronto Blue Jays

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

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Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Home Run Blast

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

More or Less – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Prize 2.5x

More or Less – Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers – Prize 2.5x

More or Less – Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels – Prize 2.5x

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

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