Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/26

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Blast.  For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer.  Within the game there are different tiers you can play.  .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double.  1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee.  2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee.  With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Salvador Perez vs. Dallas Keuchel

No pitcher on tonight’s slate is giving up homers over the past 30 days at a quicker pace than Dallas Keuchel.  In his last 21 innings of work he’s given up 5.  For a pitcher that’s always been considered a ground ball pitcher, that’s bad. 

The guy on the Royals that matches up the best for a homer tonight is Salvador Perez.  Keuchel’s main pitches tonight will be his sinker which he throws about 36% of the time and his changeup at about 31% of the time. 

His sinker has been getting crushed this year with a .508 slugging % and a near 47% hard hit rate.  Perez has a .456 slugging % and a near 48% hard hit rate vs. the pitch this year.  Look for Perez to take Keuchel deep tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Vladimir Guerrero vs. Nick Pivetta

Nick Pivetta is another pitcher that gives up homers at a pretty fast pace.  In his last 22 innings of work he’s given up 5 homers.  During the same stretch he’s given up a way too high fly ball rate of 42%.  Against a powerful lineup like the Blue Jays giving up that many fly balls is a recipe for disaster. 

PIvetta throws a ton of fastballs.  More than 50% of the time.  No batter in baseball has been better at hitting the fastball than Guerrero this year. 

Against the pitch he has an insane .842 slugging % and a 63% hard hit rate.  If Pivetta leaves one of his fastballs over the plate tonight to Guerrero, it has no chance of staying in the park.  Confidence Level – Extremely High

George Springer vs. Nick Pivetta

I’m not straying too far from Guerrero as I also think his teammate George Springer takes Pivetta deep.  Like Guerrero, Springer has great numbers against fastballs this season.  He has an .806 slugging %, a .482 wOBA, and a 48% hard hit rate. 

While not quite as good as Guererro, Springer is no slouch against the fastball and I really like his chances of leading off the game tonight with a homer.  Confidence Level – High

Jose Abreu vs. Mike Minor

The White Sox should put up a big number tonight.  Minor over the last 30 days has an xFIP of 5.53.  He’s been getting hit hard and giving up a ton of fly balls.  His hard hit rate over that period is 35% and his fly ball rate is 38.2%.  Giving up that many fly balls that are hit that hard means there’s a much higher chance of giving up a homer. 

The guy on the White Sox that takes Minor deep will be Jose Abreu.  From a pitch mix stand point he lines up great as he has great numbers vs. 4 seamers and sliders this year.  His slugging % is greater than .500 to both pitches.  Confidence Level – Highish 

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight have been very susceptible to the long ball or are giving up a ton of barrels.  And with barrels often times we see homers too.  Look for a ton of offense in Boston tonight with Blue Jays taking Pivetta deep multiple times.

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