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Tom Hoge

PGA DFS Picks: The American Express

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the American Express and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weaker, full field of 156 golfers (no Pro-Am this year)
Cut: 36 holes (instead of the venue’s usual 54), Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Andrew Landry (-25)
The courses: PGA West in Palm Springs, CA (TPC Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament)
- Both Par 72 (7,100-7,300 yards)
- Reachable Par 5s and plenty of scoring
- Rough not too penal, some wind expected
- Bermuda greens, lots of sand and water
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – I’ve said many times that I’d never again roster Finau – but that’s an attitude antithetical to winning DFS play. The 31-year-old tour veteran ranks seventh in the field in BoB gained and 12th in SG:OTT. If you’re fading the Patricks (Reed and Cantlay) and don’t want to go near Brooks Koepka, Finau is a great guy to get behind in the top tier.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,900) – My model loves Im (second overall behind Russell Henley), and there’s no particular area where this hardworking tour grinder’s game suffers. While Henley’s had his struggles at this venue (1/4), Sungjae is 2-for-2 with a T10 and T12. He’s a fine play in all formats.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – It’ll be interesting to see how much cash game love Wolff gets this week, considering he missed the cut in his first try at PGA West last season, but there’s really no reason to fade him in GPPs. His talent and ability to record birdies in bunches makes him a top play.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,500) – Scheffler debuted at this tournament with a solo third place finish, he’s No. 15 on my model, and he’s even better than Finau in the aforementioned two categories (No. 3 in SG:OTT and No. 5 in BoB%) that are big strengths here. In a field without too many big names, Scheffler’s looms large.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Na (DK $9.200) – Na isn’t the kind of golfer we like to rely on for consistency, but his track record at this event is impressive: 6/6 with two top 20s since 2014. Last week’s champ might see his ownership spike considerably from last week, but he makes for an affordable cash game option who I’ll mix into a few GPPs.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9.100) – Ancer likes the venue and despite a few putting hiccups and his inability to close out tournaments, the price makes plenty of sense for Accurate Abe. He’s placed better each of the times he’s teed it up in Palm Springs, and a breakthrough win is only a hot putter away.

Cameron Champ (DK 8,900) – I haven’t heard a ton of chatter about Champ in a while, and that means it might be time to get aboard; he’s a player with all the talent in the world to rip this course apart. Tops in the field in SG:OTT and 22nd in BoB% (you should be noticing a trend here), Champ just needs to keep it in the fairways and score well on the Par 3s.

Adam Long (DK $8,500) – Long missed the cut last year after winning this event as a rookie in the 2018-19 season, and he’s already notched four Top 15s in eight starts this season. He’s not among my favorites to win, but he’s a solid GPP play in this price range.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,400) – Kizzire might be the best putter on tour right now, and his usual issues off the tee have been mitigated by his performance on the greens. Think of him as a poor man’s Na without the requisite success at PGA West, and a guy that should be low-owned in tournaments at this increased price.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – He hasn’t played much competitive golf lately but Burns has a T18 and T6 in his two appearances here, and both he and Ryan Moore (also making his 2020-21 season debut) make for excellent plays in the $8,000-$8,500 range.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000) – Burns and Moore rank at No. 8 and No. 9 in my model, respectively, though they occupy different ends of the putting spectrum, with Moore’s flat stick lagging considerably. The slight discount on Moore could help make the decision in cash games, but they both make sense for GPPs.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,000) – The ultimate course horse, Hadwin’s performance at PGA West is downright astounding, with four straight finishes among the Top 6 from 2016 to 2019. I’ve tried 100 percent Hadwin ownership before and it worked out badly, but I’m tempted to try it again considering his unusual affection for the TPC Stadium course and the fact that the only reason he didn’t play here last year was due to the birth of his first child.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Erik Van Rooyen, Aaron Wise (GPP), Alex Noren

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Doc Redman (DK $7,500) – The luster has worn off a bit after his T61 in Houston and MC at the RSM Classic, so I feel comfortable enough to call Doc a “sleeper” pick this week. The final ownership percentages will tell the final story on how much I’ll be using, but he’s all the way up at third in my overall rankings this week.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) –Gooch has a top 5 here (2019) and two straight MCs at the RSM and Sony will keep his ownership down. What’s really bizarre is that he’s almost interchangeable in terms of model ranking (12th vs. 13th), past performance (both have a T4 in the past two seasons) and price point (same) with Sepp Straka.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,400) – What I said about Gooch goes for Sepp, right down to my infatuation with both for GPPs. I’ll be building a whole smattering of tournament lineups with either – or both – of these golfers, and hoping they can keep it together the first couple days and make the cut.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – Bradley seems like a one week on, one week off type of golfer, so I’m less concerned about his MC at the Sony Open than I am his Top 25 upside. Bradley always flies under the radar despite a solid approach game and excellent ball-striking off the tee.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,100) – He’s cheap, he can fire at flagsticks and we know he can score (-18 for a T8 at the Shriners in October). NeSmith may not be exciting, but he’s No. 33 in my model this week, he finished T17 in his debut here last season, and he may improve on that this year.

Andrew Landry (DK $7,000) – My model is not kind to Landry this year, but he’s the defending champ and I’ll work in some ownership in MMEs. Not only did he win here in 2020, but he lost in a playoff in this event in 2018, so there’s something about the place he digs.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,800) – I find it difficult to pin down exactly when to play Taylor, but he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 10 in 2019 – and his price (along with a Top 25 last week at the Sony) makes him an interesting punt option.

More value golfers to consider: Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Cameron Tringale, Tom Hoge, Russell Knox (GPP), Chex Reavie, John Huh, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

John Augenstein (DK $6,500) – First-timers seem to fare well here, and Augenstein, playing in his pro debut this week, ranks at No. 53 in my model. He’s got the star power to make this price seem ridiculous in subsequent events. I’ll be overweight on the field and hoping for some Sunday airtime.

Chase Seiffert (DK $6,400) – Seiffert is actually playing with Augenstein, so he can relay stories of his T21 finish in his debut here in 2020 and maybe get those good vibes going again. Seiffert falls just behind Augie, Tom Hoge and Brice Garnett in my model at No. 56, so there’s plenty to like as a bargain bin value option.

Grayson Murray (DK $6,300) – He’s a course horse of the not-quite highest order (with Hadwin in a class by himself) because he’s notched three Top 15s here in his four attempts (MC in 2019). Don’t go overboard, but don’t completely forget about him either.

Additional punt options: Andrew Putnam, Will Gordon, Sebastian Cappelen (GPP) Nate Lashley, Sean O’Hair

Good luck this week! – Antonio D’Arcangelis

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open at Hawaii

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open at Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weaker (just five of the OWGR Top 20) full field of 140+ golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Cameron Smith (-11 in playoff over Brendan Steele)
The course: Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI
- Par 70 (7,044 yards)
- Short, traditional course with narrow fairways
- Scoring varies based on weather, but lots of chances to go low
- Slower but tricky Bermuda greens
- Weather factor should be moderate this week (windiest on Thursday)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Fairways Gained, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100) – Webb is top-dog emcee this week and the only player above $11K on DraftKings, but this course, with its tighter fairways and silly little greens, is certainly a prime spot for him. He narrowly missed out on the aforementioned playoff between Cameron Smith and Brendan Steele and finished solo third, and this year he’s the co-favorite to win at 14-1 and the best cash game option out there.

Harris English (DK $10,800) – English isn’t on my cash game radar this week, but he’s coming off his first win since 2013 (the third of his 10-year career) among a tough field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. You can’t argue with the form, and while he hasn’t played well at Waialae before, he’s shown improvement at the venue, ranks second in my overall model, and he makes for an excellent GPP play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,600) – As a rookie, Morikawa notched a T21 last year among stellar company, and his ball-striking and approach game is tailor-made for this golf course. His putting is probably the biggest concern, though his stats on Bermuda seem to be better than other surfaces. I’ll have shares in the 15-20% range – right around the rest of the DFS tournament field.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger seems to be everybody’s “sneaky” play in the top tier this week, which continues to push his projected ownership well above 20% and into the chalky zone in GPPs. I’m comfortable using him because of his ball-striking prowess and how well he’s played in 2020-21, but he’s far from a lock button to me – Berger has no top 10s in this tournament.

Cameron Smith (DK $9,600) – Usually I don’t write up this many golfers in the top tier, but Smith is the defending champion and really seems to play well here, with three straight top 25s at Waialae (including his win). With so many value options in my player pool under $7,500, there’s a path to rostering Smith in GPPs with one or two other big-name players.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ryan Palmer (DK $9,200) – There’s plenty to like about Palmer’s chances in 2021 at Waialae, especially with his recent form and last year’s T4 at this event. He makes sense for both cash games and GPPs, and it’ll be great if his ownership stays under 20%.

Russell Henley (DK $8,700) – Henley’s course history is awful here, but he’s fourth overall in my model and is the best in the field in SG:APP – the top focus stat this week. I’m not overly interested in GPPs if he gets above 18% or so, especially since his success usually comes down to his putting performance.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,800) – I’ll be mixing in Kisner at about a 15-20% rate in GPPs and hoping he can get hot with the putter – as he usually fares well on Bermuda. There’s really nothing to dislike about Kisner, who’s a solid value in the mid-tier.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – A short course with small greens? Sign me up for a ZJ. I don’t care what he costs because if I have to ask, I can’t afford him. Seriously – Johnson has a couple of Top 10s here and while he’s not exciting, he had a T6 in November at the RSM. A solid cash game target.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $8,100) – He’s a first timer here, but we’ve seen other Sony Open virgins notch Top 10s because of their ball-striking and approach game – so why not the South African? Van Rooyen is 12th in my model and a solid GPP play who I’ll be overweight on compared to the field.

Brian Harman (DK $7,800) – Harman has some excellent results at this venue, including a T4 during the 2017-18 season, and he’s a solid cutmaker who my model loves this week (No. 10 overall). He’s in my player pool and a good play in all formats.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,600) – I love mixing in Keegan into GPPs on courses that require a solid approach game, and while he’s not the best putter in the world, the quirky veteran has shown steady improvement at the Sony Open and seems to be figuring out the greens a little more each year.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Sergio Garcia, Brendan Todd (GPP), Charles Howell (Cash), Marc Leishman, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Tom Hoge (DK $7,300) – I’m not sure when the price on Hoge will come up, but I’m loving the fact that he’s so cheap with his soaring upside on a course like this. He’s only No. 60 in my model, but that’s because of his performance around the greens – which he’s fared well on before (third place finish in 2017 and a T12 last year).

James Hahn (DK $7,300) – If you want a guy with similar upside to Hoge and lower ownership, look no further than Hahn. I may even build a few GPPs starting with both these players.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,200) – Like Zach Johnson, Furyk plays his best on shorter courses with tricky greens, and I’m considering going up to about 40% ownership on this old codger in MMEs. He’s ninth on my model and he won here way back in 1996 – about year before Collin Morikawa was born.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200) – You may have noticed a theme here, as Stanley is another solid ball striker who putts badly but has played well at Waialae in the past (T10 three years ago and 4/5 since 2015). I’d steer clear in cash games but will mix him into GPPs.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,000) – Norlander is popping on my model (eighth overall) and his T9 here last season proves there’s a good reason to include him in your builds. The price is simply way too low this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – I know that Ghim has some issues putting together four good rounds, and his debut here in 2020 was less than spectacular (MC), but if he can best his demons on the short grass, he’ll be a solid value under $7K.

More value golfers to consider: Carlos Ortiz, Matthew NeSmith (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Mark Hubbard, Vaughn Taylor

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – Course history and metrics make Armour the best punt play at or under the arbitrary $6,500 price point. He’s missed three straight cuts but a T8 at the Bermuda Championship in October mean I’ll have a few shares in large-field GPPs.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200) – He’s old and straight off the tee, and he’s notched two Top 15s here in his last five tries (two MCs). I’m comfortable using him at up to 10% in large-field GPP entries where I’m squeezing in stars and scrubs.

Additional punt options: Roger Sloan, Sung Kang, Ted Potter, Chase Seifert

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic at Sea Island

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the RSM Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Stronger field than normal for this venue, 156 golfers total
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
Last year: Tyler Duncan (-19: Beat Webb Simpson in playoff)
The course: Sea Island Golf Club (St. Simons island, GA)
Seaside: Par 70 (7,005 yards); Plantation: Par 72 (7,060)
Lots of scoring – rough isn’t penal and winners post low scores
Bermuda greens on resort-style courses
Rotation: one round at Plantation and the other at Seaside course
“Sea Island Mafia” golfers tend to fare well on their home course
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Ball-Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – I’m still interested in massive shares of Webb (the runaway #1 in my models) for GPPs – even though he’s bound to get popular. I made that mistake last week with DJ (where I ended up fading instead of doubling the field ownership) and I’m not doing it this week at a tournament where he’s dominated. Simpson has been playing well, and we can differentiate our lineups elsewhere with salary surplus and other more low-owned golfers. I’m locking him in in all formats.

Russell Henley (DK $10,100) – It’s easy to forget about Henley (I almost just did) even though he’s had success at Sea Island (with three straight top 10s) and has played well since the restart (9-for-9 with four top 10). He’s also tops in the field for SG:APP, our No. 1 focus stat.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,900) – This course seems to be well suited for Fitzpatrick’s game, though it’s the first time he’s played here. He’s going to hit fairways, make putts and score in the 60s in all four rounds. Maybe he’ll even win and then join the Sea Island Mafia.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – I like how Harman is trending from a safety perspective (top 30 finishes ion four straight, and 11 straight made cuts) and he’s a Sea Island resident with a T4 and a T14 at the RSM Classic. At this price, he’s got excellent top 10 upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,100) – Munoz, who finished third at the RSM last year, is playing pretty sharp golf right now. After finishing T8 in the 2020 FedExCup, he’s only made six straight cuts with four top 25s and a T19 at the Masters last week.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,600) – He loves the venue and feels like an excellent value in this mid-range. He could be a solid core player in cash games or even single- entry GPP.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,100) – Hughes is a little riskier than some of the other guys at this price point, but he won the RSM in 2016 and we know how hot this birdie-maker can get with the flatstick.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Based on the models, Gooch doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he’s excellent across the board and finished T23 here last season, so he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,900) – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play, Pan finished T7 at the Masters last week and has mixed in a T6 with a T13 (in 2016 & ’17) and a MC (2018) at the RSM. Driver isn’t a huge factor here and the price is very affordable.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – Don’t look his way in cash games, but feel free to deploy one of the tour’s best putters in tournaments. He stumbled out of the gate last year with a 71 on the Plantation course (but led the field in SG: P) en route to a T8 finish.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Ian Poulter, Doc Redman (GPP), Zach Johnson, Matthew Wallace, Alex Noren (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Austin Cook (DK $7,500) – I love this $7-8K price range and Cook headlines the value group right in the middle of it. He’s won here (2017), he’s 3-for-3 in made cuts and the podcast guys love him.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – Reavie hits fairways and peppers flagsticks, though his scoring has been a little lackluster since a T3 at the Safeway in September. The T29 at Augusta should give him confidence.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner is on the short list of guys under $7,500 who could notch a win here, and he’ll be out to prove something after not qualifying for the Masters last week.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,300) – After three straight missed cuts at the RSM, Poston finished T14 last season and could be a low-owned GPP play with enough upside to make 2/10 of my linueps.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100) – Norlander will be off most people’s radar, but he’s popping in my mixed models (second overall) and I’m going to have massive shares compared to the field. Norlander withdrew on Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – He’s generating chatter among the WinDaily staff, is third in SG:APP in the field and finished T14 in his debut here last season. Good enough for me to use him in GPPs.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,800) – A brilliant putter who I rode to some solid finishes in the Shriners and at the Houston Open, Kizzire is still very cheap and has struck the ball well lately.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,800) – He let me down at the Masters and cost me a decent chunk of change by relegating a few of my would be 6/6 lineups into also-rans, but I’ll try again since he’s 3-for-3 at the RSM with a T6 in 2015 and T11 in 2018.

More value golfers to consider: Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Tom Hoge (GPP), David Hearn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,400) – Swafford is a member of the Sea Island Mafia and won as recently as the Corales in September. He’s just the type of sub-$7K player I want to target in GPPs to leave a few bucks on the table when I have a little over $7K to spend.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) –He’s notched two Top 10s in three years at the RSM but missed cuts in eight of his last nine tournaments will scare off the masses. A punt play for sure, but not without a “course horse” narrative.

Additional punts: Nick Watney, Chase Seifert, Jonathan Byrd, Jamie Lovemark

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong field of 78 golfers, including defending champ Tiger Woods!
No cut
The course: Sherwood Country Club (Thousand Oaks, CA)
- Par 72: Approx. 7,100 yards (Jack Nicklaus design)
- Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens
- Elevation changes, fast greens and cooler weather could keep scores in check
- Longer hitters may have slight advantage because of temps, but it’s not a long course
- Getting hot with the putter will help
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better%, SG: T2G, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,200) – Schauffele squandered a 36-hole lead at the CJ Cup as Jason Kokrak won for the first time on the PGA Tour, leaving Schauffele with his fourth second-place finish since his last win – way back in January 2019 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This week, he’s the most expensive golfer and makes for a fine play in all formats because of his accuracy off the tee, his “no-cut specialist” status and all-around complete golf game. Whether or not I use him in GPPs depends on ownership as we approach lock.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahmbo finished the 2019 season in the PGA Tour’s Top 20 in GIR and this week will have hopefully shaken off some of the rust that plagued him in Las Vegas. There’s no reason to fade him this week and plenty to like about his performance in the WinDaily projection model (second after Xander). I love him as a GPP play this week.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton finished T3 last week at Shadow Creek and now has five Top 25s in his last six starts – made all the more impressive considering he’s played a limited schedule. There aren’t many players better T2G than Hatton, who brings plenty of upside to the ZOZO.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,600) – Reed is eschewing mechanics and metrics en route to his approach – which places more emphasis on feel. He’s not the best off the tee, but he’s a SG hero with one of the best short games in golf. As long as he’s not missing every fairway, he should do well at Sherwood.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Justin Thomas (cash), Webb Simpson, Tony Finau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,200) – After firing a disappointing opening-round 75, Hovland settled down and played the next 36 holes 9-under par ultimately finishing in the Top 15 at Shadow Creek. His domination of Par 5s could prove to be an enormous help this week (there are five Par 5s at Sherwood) as he seeks another PGA Tour win.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff got off to an abysmal start last Thursday with an opening round 80, and pretty much never recovered in the no-cut CJ Cup. He’s still one of the longest hitters in the game (averaging 311.6 yards per drive in 2019-20) and the SG: Off the Tee stat is an important one this week at Sherwood, which is not far from where Wolff grew up.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – Because he’s struggled recently and hasn’t played much, it’s easy to forget that Tiger won the ZOZO last year when it was held overseas. At the time, he was coming off a two-month layoff, so I’m not that concerned with rust, especially at a no-cut event on a course he’s dominated (five titles – all from the Hero World Challenge – at Sherwood).

Daniel Berger (DK $8,900) – Berger fares very well in the WinDaily model and is a tremendous buy-low value after a few pedestrian finishes over his last four tournaments (T28 at Shadow Creek and T34 in the U.S. Open).

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English missed the cut at the Shriners a couple of weeks back, but consistently finishes in the Top 10. He makes for a great cash game play and works for tournaments as well.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,400) – His finishes have steadily increased week-to-week since the Tour Championship, and while he occasionally misses a cut, that’s not a problem this week. He’s a fine value in this price range and has the T2G chops to win here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,800) – Ancer played some impressive golf at the Shriner’s with steady play in the mid 60s all week (4th place w/ 66-66-65-67), and finished T28 last week at the CJ Cup. If the putter can get hot again, he’s looking like a great play under $8K.

Also consider: Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, ~~Adam Scott (GPP)~~

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Paul Casey (DK $7,500) – The value play of the $7-8K range, Casey finished T69 last week but maintains plenty of upside in GPPs despite his inconsistent play this season. He’s a dynamic player who showed us at the PGA Championship how well he can play when he’s finding his groove.

Justin Rose (DK $7,400) – I have my concerns about his short game, but I’ll give Rose a shot in some GPPs at a no-cut event based on his low price and the theory that his solid T2G game will eventually come around.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker who’s stepped up his game lately,Munoz makes for a viable DFS play at a really affordable price.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,200) – We said last week that Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he wasn’t – en route to a solo 11th place. If his ball-striking recovers, he could sneak into the Top 10 this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,000) – Ownership might be high this week since he finished T7 at the CJ Cup, but his price is still very affordable and he’s a solid enough putter to make up for a few wayward shots.

Cameron Champ (DK $6,800) – Champ may be a longshot to win, but he’s really long off the tee and he’s the kind of outlier player I like using in GPPs. With no cut and his length possibly coming into play at elevation with the lower temperatures than normal, I’m a fan.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Last week was Kokrak’s time…now Higgs is looking for his time to shine. In his search for his first PGA Tour win, a strong T2G game will help his cause,

More value golfers to consider: Brian Harman, Ryan Palmer (GPP), Talor Gooch, Alex Noren (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,500) – The WinDaily model loves him this week and I’m too intrigued by his upside to worry about the T65 finish last week. I’m jumping right back on board at this price.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – As Sia pointed out on the ZOZO stream, Hoge is a really good player who just doesn’t hit it that long off the tee. He’s a longshot, but he’s got Top 25 upside this week.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,100) – Thompson won the 3M in July and has struggled since. But he’s near the minimum price on DK and clearly has the upside to make sense for some GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Joel Dahmen, Richy Werenski (GPP), Tyler Duncan, Ryo Ishikawa

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong field of 78 golfers replete with big names
No cut
The course: Shadow Creek Golf Course (North Las Vegas, NV)
- Par 72: 7,500+ yards (Tom Fazio design)
- Bentgrass greens
- One-time venue (it’s usually held in South Korea)
- Tough course (record is just a modest 66)
- Shorter Par 5s (except one at 600+ yards)
Not really a desert venue, as Fazio “manipulated” the redesign to add rolling hills, trees and more
Distance control will be important, high-upside golfers preferred
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, Birdie or Better%, Par 4s (450-500) SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – While we don’t have any real course history to look at, we do know that Rahm is the type of golfer who performs well in no-cut events, and he’s the betting favorite this week with Dustin Johnson withdrawing after a positive COVID test. He could get chalky, but he’s a fine cash game play and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – It’s easy to forget how much of a complete golfer JT is, especially since he has been overshadowed by some of the game’s other (younger) stars. But this PGA tour veteran remains an elite ball striker who excels in approach shots from all distances. That’s going to help this week.

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,400) – Fading Xander seems like a bad idea this week. The X-Man has an impressive record in no-cut events and is capable of dominating from start to finish, even in tough fields like this.

Matthew Wolff (DK $10,000) – Is there a hotter golfer than Wolff? His form and makeup suggest that rostering him is a priority, and there’s reason to believe this T2G monster might come in at low enough ownership to make him a tourney-breaking large-field GPP option. It’s a second-shot golf course, and nobody’s more dialed in than him right now.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Recency bias could keep the masses off Morikawa, but he’s a great value golfer and high-upside player who belongs in the top tier. He’s 30-1 to win at the CJ Cup, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t take down this field and emerge victorious in Vegas.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,300) – Berger is another talented performer who’s elevated his game over the past calendar year, and I’ll have massive shares of him in lineups that use only one of the elite-tier golfers above. Roster construction is going to be tricky this week, but Berger offers some salary relief in all formats – without sacrificing too much upside.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,900) – Can he back up his smack-talking comments criticizing Beefy Bryson now that he’ll get some extra distance from elevation? It’s a 7,500-yard course, and since I’m a massive fan of his T2G and short game, I’ll give him a look in GPPs.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,800) – The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year is one of the best values in the field, and he ranks inside the top 25 in par 5 scoring since the restart. He’s a birdie maker with plenty of GPP upside, even though his past couple of events (withdrew due to COVID, MC) haven’t gone all that well.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,700) – Speaking of upside, I’m intrigued by Im’s recent play and think this could be the week he breaks through with a Top 5 finish. The ball-striking and approach game has improved over the past few events and the South Korean offers massive value at this depressed price.

Harris English (DK $8,600) – Another solid golfer who continues to perform at a high level but hasn’t seen a huge price jump, English makes plenty of sense for cash game builds here. He’s not super exciting to roster, but he gets it done in all types of fields and events.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Outside of a third-place finish at a remarkably tough Winged Foot at the U.S. Open and a T6 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, his upside has been lacking a bit. But there’s still a really dynamic golfer in there who loves to shine at big events, and the no-cut format should help him stay birdie-focused. Worth a look in all formats.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Brendan Todd, Gary Woodland

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500) – Niemann misses a cut once in a while, but that isn’t a problem this week, and his form suggests he could be the best value within the $7-8K range. He’s a wonderful player T2G, and his confidence is building.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,100) – Kim is way too cheap for how well he handles the slings and arrows that different golf courses will throw at him, and he offers a steady combination of solid approaches and serviceable short game. With three top-15 finishes in his past seven starts, I’ll have plenty of shares at this low price.

Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – The first of three Canadians in this price range we have to discuss, Conners is a longshot to win (100-1) but possesses the game to do well here and should have a good chance at making the Top 20. I’ll have some shares in GPPs.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,800) – Canadian number two has a little more upside because of his birdie-making ability and recent form (four Top-15s in his last five starts). The price works, too.

Cameron Smith (DK $6,800) – Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he’s had success at this event in the past – albeit at a different venue. He’s also posted four Top-25s in his past five events and has soaring GPP upside under $7K.

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,700) – Another Canadian who could benefit from the extra distance from elevation at this course, Hadwin is a textbook second-shot golfer who sometimes struggles with the flat stick. He does, however, offer plenty of safety for cash game builds in this price range.

More value golfers to consider: Ian Poulter, Alex Noren, Bubba Watson (GPP), Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Marc Leishman (GPP), Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Dylan Frittelli

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Kevin Streelman (DK $6,500) – He’s solid T2G and excels in his approaches, and this might be just the venue for him to sneak in a Top 10 under the radar. Not a sexy pick, but worth a look in all formats.

Cameron Champ (DK $6,400) – Champ occasionally struggles with his putter but the complete game has rounded into better form in the past calendar year. He’s no longer just a bomb-and-gouge player with little to offer outside massive length, and he’ll have no problem tackling the longer holes here.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,300) – Griffin had a couple of Top 20s heading into the U.S. Open, and while he missed the cut last week, he made seven straight before that. With those concerns off the table, we can safely consider him as a viable punt option with Top 20 upside.

Additional punts: Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Lots of big names in this solid field of 144+ golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties
First two major winners of 2020 (Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa) headline the event
Defending Champ and former winners:
- 2019 – Kevin Na (-23, beat Patrick Cantlay in playoff)
- 2018 – DeChambeau (-21, another Cantlay second place)
- 2017 – Cantlay (-9 in windy conditions, beat Whee Kim in playoff)
The course: TPC Summerlin (Las Vegas, NV)
- Par 71: 7,255+ yards
- Bentgrass greens
- Played at altitude, helping shorter hitters
- Easier setup with shorter Par 4s and three reachable par fives
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, Par 4s (400-450), Bogey Avoidance, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,800) – It’s going to be interesting to watch the new version at altitude, on a course he’s played well in the past. Expect the unexpected, unless that means the beefier Bryson not having his way with the golf course, where he’s had three Top 10s in four tries. I know it could come back to haunt me if he has some sort of meltdown, but I’m all in in all formats – regardless of ownership.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – If you’re looking for a GPP pivot who bears almost no resemblance to what will inevitably be a chalky DeChambeau, then Webb is your guy. His finishes here are a bit pedestrian, but they have improved each since 2015. He might even be a sneaky play if you’re building a cash lineup that features some serious bargain values that I’ll get to down the list.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – There are better golfers in this price range, but none have three straight finishes in the top two on this course, so we have to talk about Patrick. With a much better field than in previous installments, this may be the year he doesn’t contest on Sunday. It won’t be an all-out fade, but I’m not too enthusiastic given his lukewarm play over the past few months.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,800) – The reigning PGA Championship winner missed the cut at the U.S. Open in much more difficult conditions. With Morikawa’s ball-striking prowess and improving short game, this second-shot golf course should be a cakewalk. I’ll be overweight and trying to find ways to get him in along with Bryson.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,600) – Another X-factor who’s going to be a contender at big events for years to come, Wolff notched a Top 20 in his debut at TPC Summerlin in 2019. A great cash game and GPP play, especially if you’re looking for a relative bargain with Top 5 upside.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Harris English (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – The hardest working player on Tour makes a lot of sense despite limited experience at this venue (T15 in 2018, his only start here). I’m expecting a top 20 finish at TPC Summerlin and would feel comfortable being ahead of the field in my ownership.

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,000) – If there’s a golf course where Rickie could make his big resurgence after a series of swing changes, it’s this one. He’s got a fine record here when he’s made the stop, and the ownership should be low, so I’m all aboard in mid-range stocked GPP builds.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,700) – It’s been feast or famine for Ancer at the Shriners over the past four years, but his 2020 game has been on point, so I’m plenty interested in GPPs, where a ball striker like Accurate Abe could be a fine mid-range anchor.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,300) – There’s no course history to speak of, but Zalatoris is on the verge of becoming a tour regular with special temporary membership within his grasp. He missed the cut last week, but he’ll be prepared for this venue that could very well suit his strong T2G game.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman has made seven consecutive cuts made, including a pair of top 15s in the FedExCup Playoffs, and the history at TPC Summerlin is impressive, with top 20s in his last two appearances. The price is just too cheap for a course horse like Harman.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – If you want to shake things up with a GPP play the masses will avoid, McCarthy (who finished T6 last week) is your guy. Possibly the tour’s best putter (he’s led in SG: Putting both of the last two seasons) Dump-it-in Denny has notched a T15 and T9 here since a missed cut in 2018.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Na (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Zach Johnson, Cam Davis, Doc Redman, Cameron Smith

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,400) – Palmer fits in both cash game and GPP builds as a high upside play. He missed the cut at the U.S Open, but the PGA Tour veteran made six straight cuts before Winged Foot, and he finished T37 last year at Shriners.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – This is a great price for a golfer who just sounds like he should tear up the PGA event in Las Vegas. Kidding aside, he’s a talented player with a T18 in last year’s Shriners.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – The fourth-place finish in 2019 drew my attention, but my main concern is that the field could be a little too good for him to contend on Sunday this year. I wouldn’t fault you for using him in cash games at this relative bargain, but I’m not ready to commit in my core builds.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,900) – He’s now made nine consecutive cuts, though the best finish is a T12, making him (just like the Adam above) best deployed in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,900) – Always a favorite GPP play of mine, Tringale can turn it on with the putter and can handle the T2G expectations this golf course offers.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $6,700) – Speaking of getting hot with the putter, have we ever seen a guy fire it up like Frankie? There are massive concerns regarding his recent layoff, but he’s got a T4 in his only appearance here in 2016 and is an enormous bargain under $7K.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – He’s got some excellent finishes here (T18-T7-T4), and his form has been solid, with two top 20 finishes in his last five starts. We had to like that combination, don’t we?

More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner (cash), Sam Burns (GPP), Joel Dahmen, Pat Perez, Kyle Stanley, Maverick McNealy (GPP), Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge (GPP), Matthew NeSmith

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Beau Hossler (DK $6,500) – The Hossman has made his last four cuts, and he’s got three finishes in the Top 30 at the Shriners in the last three years (T29-23-T7). That’s a solid rationale to play him at just $6,500.

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – His last few tournaments haven’t inspired confidence, but he’s played better and better at every Shriners and 2020 has been somewhat of a breakthrough.

Patton Kizzire (DK 6,300) – Another bargain play who could help fill out your studs and scrubs GPP lineups, Kizzire has fared well at Summerlin, with two Top 5s (T2 in 2015, T2 in 2017) in his last four tries.

Additional punts: Mark Hubbard, Kevin Chappell, Will Gordon, William McGirt (GPP), Brian Gay (GPP), Wyndham Clark

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship helping you find some winning teams in GPPs! All prices for DraftKings.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 150+ Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Only nine of the Top 30 golfers in the world, so a weaker field with some stars
The course: Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, NC)
Par 70: 7,127 yard – Donald Ross design
Bermuda Greens
Not incredibly long, with eight par 4s between 400-450 and two reachable par 5s
- We’ve seen a 59 here (from Brandt Snedeker in 2018’s Rd. 1), and wind not a huge factor in the Carolina burbs, so expect receptive greens and low scores
- RBC Heritage a good course comp (in terms of crossover success)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Par 4s Gained (450-500),

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400) – He fizzled on Sunday but remains one of the most talented golfers in any field – especially when something’s on the line. I’d steer clear in cash games but I love him for GPPs.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – The course history here is bonkers (he’s won here and has a bunch of top fives), and Webb, who even named his daughter Wyndham – I’m not joking – easily makes for the best cash game play in the field.

Justin Rose (DK $9,900) – He’s a first-timer at this venue who made 20 birdies last week and finished in ninth place. With the weaker field I’m perfectly happy targeting him in GPPs and hoping for a Top 5 finish.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Harris English (DK $9,300) – I’m having a difficult time making lineups without English this week given his upside, his consistent play over the past year, and his current form. He checks all the boxes and makes for a fine play in all formats.

Brendan Todd (DK $8,900) – Todd is riding a birdie streak where he’s made at least 14 birdies over his four rounds in five straight tourneys. He had a missed cut at the RBC heritage the week before that, but it’s obvious he’s turned a corner and belongs in this pricing tier.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – The price (and lack of recent top 10s) will undoubtedly scare off a few folks, but Kim has made seven straight cuts, has won here (2016) and finished in fifth place at this event last year.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,500) – I expect guys like Reavie and Kisner and Snedeker to be popular this week in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, but I really love Garcia’s upside here. He finished T5 at the RBC Heritage and people easily forget just how low he can go.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,300) – Kisner is bound to be chalky this week given his performance at the Wyndham Championship and form, so my ownership will depend on just how popular he gets. There’s certainly plenty to like about his chances for a Top 10

J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – The 2019 winner absolutely dismantled this golf course last year, and people are getting too scared of his form (T75, T30, MC, MC, MC). He likes the course and finished T8 at the RBC Heritage in June, so I’m fine using him in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,600) – Varner, who is one of my favorite plays this week and should be comfortable returning to the Carolinas, made the cut last week (T29) after being added as an alternate. I love his ball-striking this season and there’s no reason he can’t post a Top 15 at Sedgefield CC.

Also consider: Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth (GPP), Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Ryan Moore, Russell Henley, Christian Bezuidenhout, Maverick McNealy, Tom Lewis (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – He’s a solid cash game play with plenty of favorable course history, and his play – while spotty over the past several weeks – does show some upside for GPPs as well.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,300) – Last week we had Henrik Stenson (MC) at $7,300, but now we get Norlander, who’s still massively underpriced with respect to his recent play.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,300) – He missed the cut at the PGA but this course is more his wheelhouse. He’s 4-for-4 here since 2015 and I’m much more comfortable with him in this price point.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,200) – Cauley was a late addition to the PGA and he fared well. In this event, he actually has some Top 10 upside at a very low price, and his confidence has been improving over the past few weeks. He can make birdies in bunches, which is what we need at this low-scoring event.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,100) – I’m jumping right back on the Straka train after the made cut in a difficult field at the PGA championship. His T33 at the RBC Heritage tells me he could land a Top 25 finish here, which could work in single-entry GPP and for cash games.

Cam Davis (DK $7,000) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but for large-field GPPs you might need a low-owned gem like Davis, who has put together a T12 at the recent 3M Open, a T32 at last week’s Barracuda, and a 22nd place finish at the Wyndham last season.

Ryan Armour (DK $6,800) – Another streaky player I wouldn’t touch in cash games, Armour has had some success at this venue in the past (T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018 and T22 in 2019) and notched two straight top tens before missing three cuts in a row.

Brice Garnett (DK $6,700) – The veteran nabbed a sixth-place finish here last season and is a feast-or-famine GPP play who is playing some solid golf this year as well with four Top 30 finishes in his last seven tournaments, including a T17 at the RBC Heritage.

More value golfers to consider: Matthias Schwab, Danny Willett (GPP), Jim Furyk, Aaron Wise, Mark Hubbard (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – The putter holds him back, but his T2G stats are decent enough to warrant consideration this week. His last name makes me hungry for a lucrative GPP finish, not just a big sandwich.

Seamus Power (DK $6,400) – Another birdie-maker who misses some cuts but posts a lot of Top 35 finishes if he’s around for the weekend, Power has 60 birdies and an eagle in the three tourneys he made the cut among his last four events. Sign me up.

Fabian Gomez (DK $6,400) – Gomez was T3 at the Barracuda last week with 22 birdies over four days, highlighted by a closing round 63, and he finished T13 here in 2019 – good signs for a golfer under $6,500.

Brian Gay (DK $6,200) – He played poorly here last season but a T6 finish at the Wyndham in 2018 could bring back some decent memories. Gay is a longshot to have another Top 10, but if he can cut down on his bogeys, he stands a chance at a decent result for near minimum price.

Additional GPP punts: Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Peter Malnati

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such aweak field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.

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Don’t forget to hop into the Win Daily Sports Expert Chat to talk one on one with our DFS and Betting Pros and check their articles out on the site!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfers
Only second time playing this PGA event, so not much course history
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)
- 7,441 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consult
- Bentgrass Greens
- Course features 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps
2019 3M Open shares correlation with 2020 Rocket Mortgage
Ball-striker’s course
Defending champ: Matthew Wolff (-21)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600), Birdie or Better %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – It’s hard to say how he’ll react to Saturday’s collapse and subsequent Sunday struggles at Jack’s place, but this course sets up well for him with its wider-than-normal fairways and advantage to better drivers. He’ll certainly be hitting more greens this week at a course where he fared well in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500) – Fleetwood has as much upside as the top three (more expensive) golfers and ownership shouldn’t be through the roof considering he’s breaking the seal after the layoff. I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he’s my favorite golfer in this price range.

Paul Casey (DK 10,100) – Casey’s price has gone up over $2K since last week, when he missed the cut, so we might see the masses afraid to plug him in. He’s floating to the top of the models and makes sense in all formats – just keep an eye on ownership.

Bubba Watson (DK $9,900) – The WinDaily writers’ group text has been replete with comment’s about Bubba’s viability at this venue, and I’m on board for a few GPPs, where his last couple tournament performances (and an elevated price) could scare off the faint of heart.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – The man with one of the best – and coolest-looking – moves in golf is the defending champion, and I imagine could see massive chalk. But I can’t find a good reason to fade him at this point. Wolff played well last week in a much tougher test and seems like a darn good Top 10 bet with obvious winning upside. One of the best bets to repeat at a golf tournament in quite a while.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson(GPP only)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Lucas Glover (DK $9,400) – Glover has been steadily rising as a more and more dependable DFS play in the past month or so, and he’s now tasked with justifying the highest price tag he’ll probably see this year. His 3M resume includes a course record-tying 62 in last year’s tournament and a T7 finish.

Harris English (DK $9,000) – A cash game staple and solid value given his slew of Top 20s this year, English might get popular. He was cleared to play after a positive COVID test and finished T13 at the Memorial.

Erik van Rooyen (DK $8,800) – Van Rooyen seems to be the definition of the feast-or-famine GPP play given his tendency to Top 20 or MC, but I’ll take a shot this week on a course where his skill set seems to match the venue.

Doc Redman (DK $8,700) – Redman hits greens and ranks well in both SG: APP and SG: OTT. With three top 25s in his last four starts (MC last week), he’s a fine play in all formats.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,600) – The price has jumped over $2K this weekafter I featured him in my plays at $6,500 or under, but a course geared toward ball strikers, there’s no reason to get off him and his red-hot putter.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,900) – Straka struggled on Saturday and Sunday at the Memorial but will enjoy the scoring opportunities that will inevitably come at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a “birdies-in-bunches” type of player who does well off the tee.

Scott Stallings (DK $7,600) – Stallings is modestly priced at $7,600 and for a guy who’s 12 for 16 on the season and should play all four rounds with Top 15 upside, that’s not terrible. He checks a whole bunch of boxes and I’ll have shares in all formats.

Also consider: Sam Burns, Luke List,Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Jhonattan Vegas, Will Gordon, Dylan Frittelli

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Troy Merritt (DK $7,400) – The T8 at the Rocket Mortgage sticks out as a selling point (along with solid overall play this season), and he finished T7 at the 3M last year. I’m more than comfortable rostering him in all formats given his Top 10 upside.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,400) – There’s cause for concerngiven his current form, considering his last top 15 came in January well before the layoff. But CH3 is an obvious course horse who checks most of the boxes this week and is available at a significant discount.

Ricky Werenski (DK $7,400) – Werenski is popping on the models and made the cut in last year’s event. He probably lacks winning upside but seems to be playing consistent golf these days.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – I’m once again looking at the Rocket Mortgage finishers, and Ventura posted a T21 in what was a pretty steady week. The Norwegian Korn Ferry regular could surprise some folks this week in a relatively weak field.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale is one of my GPP specials this week, and he’s decent risk-reward bet for a Top 25 given his most recent finishes.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – You know the story on Grillo – the putter just needs to be better than terrible for him to make the cut, and decent-to-good for him to make a run at the Top 10.

Brice Garnett (DK $6,900) – Garnett is another golfer that either shows up to play or bombs out, with three MCs and three Top 20s in his last six tournaments.

More value golfers forGPPs: Charley Hoffman, Wyndham Clark (WD risk, back), Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise,Talor Gooch, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, Jason Dufner, Harry Higgs

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – If the rib injury isn’t a problem, Percy could give us a memorable DFS week at such a low price.

J.J. Spaun (DK $6,500) – Spaun’s ability to make birdies sets him apart from some of the other chumps in the $6-7K range. Far from a DFS lock, I’ll sprinkle him into GPPs.

Seamus Power (DK $6,500) – Another birdie-maker who can crank it out there, Power finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage and is among my favorite plays in this value range.

Additionalpunts: Roger Sloan, JoshTeator, Derek Ernst, Arjun Atwal, Angus Flanagan

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

NOTE: The PGA DFS prices are pretty soft in the secondary tier, so it should be easy to build teams that look good and have monster upside. Focus on single entry GPPs and low-price MMEs.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller,much stronger tournament field of 133 golfers (including 48 of the world’s top50 players), but more than normal (usually 120) at the Memorial
Secondof two consecutive events being played at Muirfield Village, along with last week’sWorkday Charity Open
Firsttime since 1957 the same course will host consecutive tournament events
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play theweekend (about 49%)
Thecourse: Muirfield Village
7,456 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design
Bentgrass Greens
Rough will be a little longer than last weekand greens will be faster than last week’s event
Wider fairways should still help somelonger hitters
Firestone CC and TPC Sawgrass have winnercorrelation
BrysonDeChambeau (2018 Memorial winner) back in the field after skipping last week,and Tiger Woods is playing for the first time since February
Defending champ: Patrick Cantlay (2019 Memorial:-19)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach;SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Birdie orBetter %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – If the roughgives him fits, he could struggle, but it’s hard to argue with the success he’shad harnessing his newfound distance. He won here in 2018 and could do itagain.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,300) – DJ has six top 20s at the Memorial with aT8 last year, and he’s only three weeks removed from an impressive victory atthe Travelers. I’ll be using him as a low-owned GPP plug-n-play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – Morikawa spent most of Sunday at Muirfield knocking down flagsticks and ended up walking away a victor in a playoff against Justin Thomas. There’s no way we can fade him here.

Patrick Cantlay (DK 9,800) – If we used plenty of Cantlay last week, there’s no reason we shouldn’t go right back to the well after his T7. He’s well-equipped to finish in the Top 5 this week and should be a leaderboard presence come Sunday.

Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – A few late mistakes cost Hovland a chance at victory, but he was right in the mix all week long and remains one of the better T2G players in the tournament, leading the field in SG: Off the Tee.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, RoryMcIlroy (GPP), Webb Simpson (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jon Rahm (DK $9,300) – Rahm is anabsolute steal at $9,300 given his upside, though form and course fit areconcerns. He works in all formats this week and provides one of the bettervalues in the $9K range.

XanderSchauffele (DK $9,200) – Schauffele and Rahm both provide some salary relief from the toptier while maintaining the same upside, so I’ll have some shares. Xander wasquiet lats week but finished with a respectable T14.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – I probably won’t deploy Tiger in cash games, since there are plenty of safer options at this price point, but I can’t count him out in his search for his record 83rd win, especially without the normal distractions of a gallery.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,800) – We got a good look at what Rickie can do when his game comes together in the third round at the Workday (66), and he’s trending up. It’s hard to go all-in but mixing in some GPP shares makes sense.

AbrahamAncer (DK $8,500) – Ancer’s form is excellent (T14-2-T11 coming outof the break) and he actually tops the tour in SG: APP. Add in the soaringfigures at the key efficiency proximity range (150-175 yards) and we’ve got alive one.

MatthewFitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitz shook off his MC at the Travelers and made the cut at the Workday,and the week-to-week changes to the course (faster greens, longer rough) shouldhelp his strengths and set him apart as an even more favorable option.

Jason Day (DK $8,000) – Day had his best tournament since February’s fourth-place finish in Pebble Beach, and the price hasn’t yet come up. A classic risk-reward GPP play with Top 5 (and winning) upside.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,000) – His form is somewhat questionable following a pair of ho-hum finishes (T41-T39) since the uncharacteristic missed cut at the Charles Schwab, but Kuchar is affordable and has had success at Muirfield with a pair of T4s in 2016 and 2017.

Paul Casey (DK $7,900) – Casey is an enormous risk despite still not missing a cut in 2020, but I love him as a low-owned GPP salary saver given his rankings in the WinDaily model.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, DanielBerger, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, KevinStreelman, Doc Redman, Ian Poulter

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – Sabbs comes at a huge discount in this loaded field, and while he’s yet to break through here, he’s not a terrible cash game play.

CameronChamp (DK $7,400) – Champ is at the other end of the spectrum, as he has winning GPPupside but shouldn’t be deployed in cash games.

ShaneLowry (DK $7,200) – He’s 2-for-2 at the Memorial and his game fits this venue. I lovethe price and will be using plenty of Lowry this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,100) – There’s really a ton of value out there in the $7K range, which makes building teams a lot of fun this week. Glover checks all the boxes this week and comes in sporting excellent form, with four straight Top 25s since the restart.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,000) – Wallace is my sleeper play this week and should maintain low ownership. You won’t have to go overboard to stay ahead of the field, and he’s in good position to make the cut.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – Homa missed the cut again last week, but he’s at least apologetic. I’ll be using him again in the hops that he can make some putts, as he finished T37 in his Memorial debut in 2019.

Zach Johnson (DK $6,700) – ZJ is just way too cheap given his cut-making upside, though he’s more of a cash game play. I don’t expect him to win, but a Top 25 could be in the cards.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Cauley has been all over the place here (T9-113-T25-T38 in his last four) and has missed three straight cuts since the Charles Schwab, but I’m using him in a handful of large-field GPPs.

More value golfers forGPPs: Billy Horschel, Adam Hadwin, Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Maverick McNealy,Sepp Straka, Graeme McDowell, Troy Merritt, Bernd Wiesberger

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Jason Dufner (DK $6,500) – He finished T7 last year and won the Memorial in 2017 – selling points for this enigmatic golfer among the bottom tiers.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,300) – The stronger field is a tougher test, but Norlander’s recent form justifies using him in stud-scrub builds.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – I’m not the only one who likes him this week, but Duncan is one of a few solid golfers under $6,500 who could surprise.

Additional punts: Branden Grace, Harry Higgs, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam

Make sure to check out more PGA content over at WinDailySports.com/golf and follow us on twitter @WinDailySports! You can ask us questions in our Expert Chat on Discord free for 3 days!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Workday Charity Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Workday Charity Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS DraftKings pricing is a little soft this week, so it’s pretty easy to put together some stacked teams. Make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more FREE content, and hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with our pros!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Fulltournament field of 156 golfers, with some bigger names than last week
Firstof two consecutive events being played at Muirfield Village, along with nextweek’s Memorial
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play theweekend
Thecourse: Muirfield Village
7,456 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design
Bentgrass Greens
A little longer than last time(especially Par 3s and Par 4s), but with slower greens than next week’s event
Wider fairways could help some longerhitters
Firestone CC and TPC Sawgrass have somewinner correlation
BrysonDeChambeau (2018 Memorial winner) NOT in the field
Defending champ: Patrick Cantlay (2019 Memorial: -19)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach;Par 4s Gained (450-500), GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves, Proximity (150-175),SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,100) – Hopefully the week off did him some good, but the MC at the Travelers looms large for a guy this expensive. A risk-reward play in all formats, it truly depends on how much risk you can handle.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,900) – Rahm has the all-around game to make it work here – but he’ll have to limit his desire to overpower the course and take his shots from the fairway – not the long stuff.

Patrick Cantlay (DK 10,600) – He’s the defending champ at the Memorial and thus will be popular – especially coming off a T11 at the Travelers. I’ll try to be ahead of the field, even if that’s a tall order.

Brooks Koepka (DK $10,400) – One of the best GPP plays in the field, he’s always entertaining, even if it’s just taking jabs at Beefy Bryson. Koepka is definitely heating up and this could be the week he flourishes around the greens and notches a win.

Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – Four straight Top 25s and only three scores in his last 12 rounds in the 70s – he’s a solid cash game option at the bottom of the first tier.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele,Justin Rose (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,200) – Mr. Consistency squeaked by at the Heritage but saw his made cut streak end at the Travelers. With his iron play, the now under-the-radar Morikawa is a near lock to start another one this week.

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,000) – The price continues to remain affordable, but Rickie seems to have some stuff figured out (T12 last week) as he heads into a course where he has a couple of Top 10 finishes and a T14 last season.

Marc Leishman (DK $8,700) – Tops in the field for SG:APP, when Leishman gets hot with the putter, he can post obnoxiously low scores – and he has a good record at Muirfield. The inactivity and poor play since resuming tournament play is a concern, but I’ll trust the models and the course history.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,200) – The Canadian is coming off a solid performance in Detroit and is another low-risk/solid irons/good scrambler combo player who could adorn the leaderboard come Sunday, Hadwin is worth a look in all formats.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – He burned me by missing the cut at the Travelers but my crush on his short game and iron play refuses to yield. The Englishman and former U.S. Amatgeur champ still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but he’s come close – and he’ll be a staple in my GPPs builds at this price.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,800) – I’m throwing out the first-round 79 in Detroit and focusing on the 65 he fired in round 2. The course fits his strengths and the combination of recency bias and value makes him a prime target for me.

Joel Dahmen (DK $7,700) – The stat models love Joel and he hasn’t missed a cut since January 30 at the Waste Management Open – a stretch that includes six Top 20s in nine starts.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth, JoaquinNiemann, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,500) – One of the best kept secrets in DFS, McNealy should garner more popularity this week following a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage, where he posted 21 birdies to just four bogey and a DBB. The kid can play.

Mark Hubbard (DK $7,400) – Hubbard keeps improving his form and establishing himself as a solid DFS option, but the price hasn’t caught up yet. Bogey avoidance will be a key stat for him this week.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – The MC at the Travelers was a letdown but Tringale remains a modest value option with upside and consistency making cuts (12/14 in 2020). If he can block out what the villagers are saying about his clothes, he should be okay.

Max Homa (DK $7,100) – Homa missed the cut at the Travelers, but he’s a good fit here with his ball striking and ability to scramble. Great value play for GPPs, as I believe he’s still massively underpriced.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,100) – Perhaps my favorite overall play this week, Cauley has the necessary chops around the green and is a solid ball-striker who’s popping in the stat models. I might go a little overboard considering the WD at the Travelers was due to Denny McCarthy testing positive, and not because of his play.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,100) – Keegan’s biggest problem is his nerves, but he played well last week and should be comfortable here in Muirfield Village with the greens running a little slower than usual. An ideal large-field GPP play.

Sam Burns (DK $6,900) – Burns is a big risk, but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays and he’s starting to prove he belongs. I’ll be ahead of the field even if he gets popular.

Adam Long (DK $6,600) – If Long can keep it in the fairway, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upside. The ultimate risk-reward GPP value play.

More value golfers forGPPs: Harold Varner, Rory Sabbatini, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, Tom Hoge, SebastianMunoz, Seung-Yul Noh

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,500) – There’s not a lot of upside once you get this cheap, but Norlander sticks out like a sore thumb with his recent finishes compared to his price. I’ll have plenty of shares and don’t mind a $5 or $10 win bet at 250-1.

Brandon Wu (DK $6,500) – He tested positive for COVID-19 last week but apparently has jumped through the necessary hoops to get in the field this week. He’s 4/4 making cuts in 2020, though he hasn’t played a tourney since the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February.

Peter Malnati (DK $6,000) – He finished 17th at the Memorial last year and is coming off a MC after a disappointing second round 74 (following an opening round 66). For $6K, you can’t have it all, but there is some upside.

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

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