Welcome to another Thursday night football DFS preview article. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian play of the game. So who is ready for some Thursday night action between the Jets and Ravens? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Contest.
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Thursday Night Football DFS – Value and Punt Plays
The Jets have been more susceptible to pass-catching backs than traditional runners this season. They have allowed the fourth-most receptions, fourth-most targets, fourth-most red zone touches, and most red-zone targets to the running back position this season. Ingram has gotten more in the passing game as of late and that could be a potential matchup the Ravens could exploit. There’s also a possibility that Justice Hill ($200) or Patrick Ricard ($200) makes some noise in the red zone so they are interesting options in DFS. Seth Roberts ($1,800) has four targets in two of his last three games and has been playing ahead of rookie Miles Boykin at the left outside wide receiver position.
Ryan Griffin for the Jets is out of the lineup with an injury so Daniel Brown ($2,000) should see the majority of snaps from the tight end position for the Jets. If you are looking to save even more salary look at Trevon Wesco ($200). Jets receiver Vyncint Smith ($600) also has a chance to play a key role in this game with Demaryius Thomas listed as doubtful in this contest.
Thursday Night Football DFS – Favorite Stacks
A Ravens onslaught seems like the best play here stacking heavily with Baltimore skill players starting with Mark Ingram ($10,400), Ravens DST ($5,800), Marquise Brown ($8,200), Mark Andrews ($8,400), and Justin Tucker ($4,000). Ingram could not get much going last week versus the Bills, but still saw 18 touches and finished second on the team in receiving. The Jets matchup is obviously not ideal for a running back like Ingram who profiles as an in-between the tackles grinder, but he is the running back at home on a team that is favored by more than two touchdowns.
This season they have allowed the third-highest percentage of fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Brown is the ultimate boom-bust play with under five fantasy points in three of his last four games. Over the last four weeks, the Jets have allowed the third-most touchdown receptions to wide receivers. Brown leads the team in routes run and receptions over the past three weeks.
The Jets are not great versus slot receivers, and Mark Andrews at tight end has played 63.5% of his snaps from the slot this season and leads all receivers and tight ends in yards per route run out the slot via PFF (3.46). Now he is dealing with an injury, but if he is healthy and Jamal Adams is once again sidelined it is wheels up for Andrews in this spot. If Andrews were to miss both Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst would have to be streaming options. Nick Boyle would have to catch a touchdown as the more unathletic of the two, so the upside play would be with Hurst.
If you want to bring back a Baltimore onslaught with a Jets stack I like Sam Darnold ($9,800) paired with Jamison Crowder ($7,800). Baltimore over the past four weeks ranks eighth-best versus the wide receiver position. However, it seems that most successes for some receivers have come from the slot. Crowder has 16 targets over the past two weeks. No Robby Anderson for me.
Thursday Night Football DFS – Contrarian Plays
If there were ever a slate to fade Lamar Jackson ($13,800) it would be this slate here. Short week, with Jackson on the injury report in a game they should win easily, it just does not seem like a smash spot for Jackson. I almost feel like the Ravens will draw less designed runs for Lamar and instead protect him more. It’s also worth noting that the Jets allow the fewest rushing yards per game (68.5) on the road this season. Their defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has seen Lamar Jackson before in Week 17 last season. However, in that game, Jackson rushed for 90 yards and two touchdowns. But that damage was done in the first half. In the second half when Williams was able to make adjustments where he rushed for 23 yards and passed for 75 yards on nine attempts.
The Jets DST is only a contrarian play in DFS with the Ravens allowing the fewest fantasy points to the DEF position. They have had more defenses score negative points (four) than score double-digit fantasy points (two).
Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) is the best pass-catching running back in this game so I love him as a contrarian play in the Captain’s spot. At this point all we know if that whoever the Jets starting running back will get the majority of at least 15 touches. The Ravens are allowing 5.1 yards per attempt at home this season which is second-highest in the NFL. Devin Singletary was able to do damage versus the Ravens’ defense going over 100 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches.
Kicker Tucker at 4K should almost be a lock across all lineups from the fact that he is just really good and the Jets allowed 24 fantasy points to the Dolphins kicker last week.
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