Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down his Favorite Props for Thursday Night Football on the Plus Money Prop Train! #thursdaynightfootball #nflbetting #nflpredictions
Tony Cutillo has been covering and playing Fantasy Football for 25+ years. Not only is it his passion, it’s his job. This passion has allowed me to be featured on networks like VSIN, SiriusXM, NBC, CBS, and various nationwide radio stations. He will be using his experience, unique logic, and unrivaled energy to help you win your league!
At WinDailySports.com we will turn your love of sports into a profit center. From our projection models, lineup optimizer, articles, cheat sheets, videos and our expert chat our team of pros are here to help you dominate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and with player props on Prize Picks.
Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7, Thursday Night Football. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.
Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).
| Team/Player | SportsBook | Line | Unit Risk |
| NYG +4.5 | TBD | -105 | 0.3 |
| Darius Slayton O52.5 Rec Yds | FanDuel | -110 | 0.4 |
| Greg Ward O32.5 Rec Yds | FanDuel | -110 | 0.8 |
| DeSean Jackson O34.5 Rec yds | DraftKings | -134 | 0.5 |
| Greg Ward O3.5 Rec | DraftKings | -112 | 1.1 |
Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.
People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!
Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.
Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Thursday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.
Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).
| Team/Player | SportsBook | Line | Unit Risk |
| Darnell Mooney O37.5 Rec Yds | FanDuel | -110 | 0.5 |
Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.
The fun continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re breaking it down to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
It’s going to be difficult for me to build anything tonight without Melvin Gordon atop my favorite showdown lineups, for reasons I should probably not have to explain. But I’m going to have some using both Gordon and Sam Darnold as flex plays with an inexpensive captain — hoping to get me 10-15 fantasy points — so we can squeeze in more upside-laden players. As a standalone NFL contest between two winless teams, it’s not a very fun game to handicap, and it may be an even worse game to watch – but DFS allows us to add some (possibly) lucrative excitement to the mix, doesn’t it?
Both teams are dealing with multiple injuries to their offensive and defensive units and second stringers (or third, in the case of Broncos QB Brett Rypien) have been thrust into prominent roles at the skill positions. One Jets WR has already been ruled out (Breshard Perriman, OUT) and Darnold may also be without Chris Hogan (ribs, knee) and Jamison Crowder (hamstring), both of which currently sport “questionable” tags. Crowder is expected to play, but that doesn’t really diminish my enthusiasm for Braxton Berrios, who has emerged as a viable target for the beleaguered Jets. We’ve also been hearing for a while how awesome Jets TE Chris Herndon is (still waiting on that big breakout game), so a prime time matchup could be an opportunity for him to shine.
The contrarian play, since the Broncos are expected to feature Gordon and attack one of the league’s worst run defenses, is using Rypien in his first NFL start at CPT. Jeff Driskel is not injured (just waiting in the wings if Rypien really struggles) and could be used in the offense as well, so this is a risky move best deployed in multi-entry tournaments. You can get insane leverage by doing it in single entry, but I wouldn’t risk more than a few bucks on that.
Rookie Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has seen 24 targets from three different QBs through three games, hauling in 13-173-0, and while he’s probably Denver’s most explosive big-play threat, I prefer TE Noah Fant. The athletic former Hawkeye has been more efficient (14-184-2 on 21 targets) and should be easier to find on shorter routes while still bringing some big-play and red zone upside. Tim Patrick is an efficient target and seems to have more upside than KJ Hamler if you’re stacking with Broncos receivers.
On DK, rostering Fant at CPT allows you to fit both QBs and some key offensive cogs, and while the offenses are banged up, I’m still more interested in them than the defenses in this matchup. There’s some pick six leverage in using the Broncos DST, but Denver’s unit is without standouts Jurrell Casey, Von Miller, and A.J. Bouye; dynamic edge rusher and OLB Bradley Chubb (12.0 sacks in 2018) has been on a pitch count (and is without a sack) through the first three games of 2020.
Lastly, on the topic of the Jets “stable” of RBs, I have much more interest in Kalen Ballage or rookie RB La’Mical Perine (in a negative game script/passing barrage) than Frank Gore, who may have finally reached his breaking point as a viable NFL player. Much love to you, Frankie G, but it’s a sad reality that your impressive NFL career is finishing in New Jersey, on a team of mostly scrubs, in the middle of a pandemic. You’re still a large-field GPP play because of your heart — but I can’t get behind you in cash or single-entry.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to take a shot on a defense on DK. Darnold throws INTs and the Broncos QB is making his first NFL start.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your offensive selections, although the small spread doesn’t preclude using more underdogs tonight.
DON’T: Be afraid to get (a little) crazy with this one – from using hobbled players like Crowder or featuring an unproven QB like Rypien. We’ve seen QBs have monster games in their debuts against better defenses than this hideous Jets unit.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The AETY Model has started the season with a bang and a lot of profit. Let’s keep it rolling into Week 3 NFL Prop Bets.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.
Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).
| Team/Player | Sportsbook | Line | Unit Risk |
| James Robinson O15.5 Rec Yards | BetRivers | -112 | 0.5 |
| Isaiah Ford O3.5 Rec | FanDuel | +118 | 1 |
Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re going to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Tonight’s MVP landscape is a pretty complicated one, because the pricing is soft enough that we can safely play a host of high-upside options in the flex spots, even if we roster a QB up top.
The chalk is obviously going to be Gardner Minshew II, who gets a great matchup against a weak Miami secondary that’s now missing Byron Jones (out with a groin injury). It shouldn’t be too difficult to stack up two or three of his WRs and RBs and come back with some high-profile Dolphins, though the winning combination might leave a considerable amount of salary on the table.
Ryan Fitzpatrick makes for a nice pivot, since the Jaguars have an effective rookie back in James Robinson who could rack up some points and keep Minshew from making value. I’d certainly entertain Fitzmagic-at-MVP combos with one (or both) of the Jaguars RBs (pass-catching back Chris Thompson being the other).
In one scenario, the Jags would grab an early lead behind the running of Robinson, with the veteran Miami QB storming back via several TD passes against a defense that’s no longer a stalwart unit.
In the other, the Dolphins grab an early lead via Fitzpatrick, struggle to move the ball on the ground and get most of their yardage and points via their WRs (Keelan Cole has some incredible hands and is massively underpriced on DK) and a drive or two that relies heavily on Thompson.
I’m very high on Mike Gesicki (who runs nearly 80% of his routes directly out of the slot) and I’m finding a way to get him into most of my builds. If you’ve been following him since last season, you know that his monster Week 2 performance (11-130-1 on eight targets) was not a fluke, and that he’s a talented pass-catching tight end with tons of upside in just about any matchup.
Spending down for a non-QB at MVP allows you almost total freedom in stacking up the best offensive options on DraftKings, though I might not go too heavy with this approach on FanDuel. The game total and defensive strengths of both teams seem to point to big days for one or both signal callers.
UPDATE: With the news that DJ Chark will sit out TNF, I’m making a little more room for Laviska Shenault, Jr. and Chris Conley.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Rely too heavily on either of these defenses in your builds – though using a DST in 1 or 1 out of 10 large-field GPPs could be good way to establish some variance. Fitzpatrick tossed three INTs in Week 1 against the Patriots, and we know he’s capable of throwing more than that (and a pick six).
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your offensive selections.
DON’T: Be afraid to use just one or two players from a single team if you think a blowout is a possibility.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
After a nice opening weekend of profit and another in Week 2, it’s time for the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model for NFL Prop Bets on Monday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the NFL Prop Bets the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.
Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).
Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors! Keep an eye on this article throughout the week as I’ll be adding more NFL Prop Bets as the model sees fit.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
