The PGA Tour travels to Dublin Ohio to play The Memorial Tournament at Jack’s Track. This week we are looking for the all-around game with a particular emphasis on keeping it in the fairway, strong iron game and the ability to maneuver deftly ARG. When looking at course history keep in mind this course was renovated recently and we only have one year of data (2021) on the new track. More on the renovations during the famous course breakdown with Spencer on Tuesday night’s PGA Draftcast. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.
Collin Morikawa (10400) – I’ve been off Collin due to the issues with the PUTT but this may be a track where he can find his PUTT stroke again. Last year he gained over 5 strokes with the PUTT while also gaining over 12 strokes T2G. If he’s popular I will pivot but if the ownership is reasonable, I’m happy to take the leap of faith. I also like Rahm and Rory up top, but will only consider them if ownership doesn’t get out of hand.
Xander Schauffele (10200) – I’m not the biggest Xander fan, but he’s undoubtedly a metrics monster and he’s coming in with great form and has three Top 15s in a row at The Memorial including an 11th in 2021. If you can’t play Xander here, you’re probably just not going to play Xander. He won’t be in my main build but I’ll have him in some lineups for sure.
Jordan Spieth (9700) – He needs to keep it in the fairway and if he does he’s just as likely to win as any of the guys priced above him. He’s gained ARG in 8 tournaments in a row and has been cruising with the ball striking. May be lower ownership than you think as people tended to play a lot of him over the last two tournaments and may be ready to pivot this week.
Shane Lowry (9000) – Lowry has been keeping it in the fairway and gains across all metrics. T6 here last year and truly has the complete form. He could easily be priced at 9500. I like Zalatoris as a pivot in this range if ownership is high on guys like Lowry or Spieth.
Sungjae Im (8900) – He was pristine T2G last week, but lost a ton with the PUTT. Grades out just fine on this track in spite of very poor history. My guess is the poor course history and the lack of consistent recent history keeps his ownership down, and if that is the case, I’m happy to dive in. If he’s high owned, I’m fine with going to someone else in this range as it is rich with talent.
Cameron Young (8800) – He’s 7th in my model and carries with that metrics of 1st T2G and 1st in Par 4 450-500 yards over the last 24 rounds. Generally keeps it in the fairway. No experience here which I don’t love, but I still see him as a value with great upside.
Daniel Berger (8500) – Berger barely made the cut last week, but the ball striking was on point and he was great ARG. His PUTT let him down but he actually gained 2 of the 4 days. The ball striking is picking up and I’m hopeful that most people pivot to others in this range.
Mito Pereira (8000) – Much like Young, he is lacking in experience, but makes up for it with spectacular ball striking which includes finding fairways. He’s also been above average ARG and can spike with the PUTT. I think Max Homa is also a fine play in this range.
Patrick Reed (7900) – Reed has been his old self over the last couple of tournaments. He has great course history including a 5th at The Memorial last year. Gained across all metrics last week including great performances on APP and ARG.
Aaron Wise (7500) – He had a good showing last year which included gaining in all metrics and almost 7 T2G and 2.5 with the PUTT en route to a T9 finish. He comes in with good form as well and will be a value if the PUTT is decent. I also like Chris Kirk in this range who is likely to be popular and Cameron Tringale as an ownership pivot.
Jhonnatan Vegas (6700) – A high risk play as he hasn’t been hitting fairways and historically has issues ARG, but he has gained in 3 out of 4 tournaments ARG. If he is back to his old ball striking self and can maintain the ARG improvement he will be a great value.
Brendan Steele (6600) – Indeed a likely steal at this price given his impressive course history (37th, 13th, 41st and 57th in his last four at The Memorial) and he’s coming in with great form as evidenced by his Top 10 at The PGA Championship. The short game can be tricky for Brendan but he has the ability to gain there and the BS has been very good since March.
Lucas Glover (6500) – He lost 6 strokes with the PUTT last week which should surprise no one. There are times where he’s only a small loser PUTT and his T2G overall is pretty great. I’m willing to gamble on some poor PUTT this week. Glover has made 5 cuts in a row at The Memorial.
Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.
Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.
We are in Southern Hills located in Tulsa for the second major of the year, The PGA Championship. Most of you will see a course very much like Augusta with undulating and elevated greens, long sloping hills and a creek that was redesigned to run through the course and be prominent on 16 holes. Acclaimed award winning Gil Hanse did a complete historic renovation in 2017. At the time the 2022 PGA was scheduled at Trump’s Bedminster New Jersey golf club. The date and venue were changed after January 6th.
After the incident at the Capital occurred the PGA decided to distance themselves from the publicity and moved it to Southern Hills. It’s a course that all players love, most have it in their top 5 and when you watch it just remember how well it plays on TV, very much like Augusta. The winds are supposed to show up in a major way and the only thing stopping high winds in Oklahoma are barbed wire fences. It’s why the cows always look cold there.
The Birdie Festival
TPC Lee won the Byron Nelson at 26 under after a fast close by Jordan Spieth who finished second. I found out that the competition committee was over watering the greens every night and on more than several holes they moved the tee boxes up as much as 40 yards so the course didn’t play at 7500 yards. A birdie fest is great to draw ratings but whatever happened to penalizing a bad shot?
The Byron Nelson set a PGA record for over 2200 birdies last week. Xander had a phenomenal day of golf and was the leader at -23 early in the afternoon. Imagine knowing that no matter how many errant shots that may follow, there was no way he could win. The worst anyone could do was par, it was just a matter of who got the most eagles and birdies coming in. Lee played a superb round and deserved the victory. Lets hope this week that good or great shots are rewarded and not just every single shot they play.
Wait until they get to the 18th hole at Southern Hills! It’s one of the hardest holes in golf. It takes two pristine shots to just get on the green, if you do not hit the green you will bogey at best in most circumstances. It will be a change of pace to see where par is a rewarded score for a very tough hole.
Last Week
I had a solid week with Deki, Palmer and Munoz and used Vegas and Taylor Moore as well. Taylor was my frisky risky biscuit play, had a low salary and was owned by less than half of one percent, He finished 32nd at -16, and I hit the first round leader S. Munoz, who was also my low tier play of the week as well. You can see this weeks picks for The PGA Championship below the ownership projections.
The Mob Hit At Southern Hills
Very few people know that back in 1981 a Tulsa businessman and owner of World Jai Alai named Roger Wheeler was executed in the parking lot right next to the Southern Hills clubhouse. He was shot once between the eyes and once in the back of the head, a signature style hit from the notorious Boston gangster Whitey Bulger. He was executed after finishing his weekly round at Southern Hills. The moral to this story is if you play a round with a mobster I highly recommend you let him win, it’s so much better for your health status…..smile.
Weather
The winds are coming to Southern Hills. On Thursday winds sustained at 17 with gusts to 20. Possible rain Thursday night. On Friday and Saturday sustained winds at 17 and gusts to 20-25 with possible scattered rain Friday afternoon. All three days the winds will be from the south. On Sunday we get 9 mph winds that will be coming from multiple directions, mostly easterly which means crosswinds but at least they will be minimal compared to the other days. It seems as if the wind won’t be as severe as earlier predictions. We will continue to monitor the weather and bring you updates in Discord right up to lock. There is still an early am/ late pm advantage, but it’s less than originally anticipated.
The Tiger Tale
Tiger Woods issued a brief statement after his round where the gallery was 6 to 7 deep….for a practice round. He said that he was a month from the Masters and his leg was much stronger and he had been practicing golf since. Basically he was saying his leg was stronger. His ownership shot up 4 points within an hour. Our projections on him will be accurate but I advise you to add 10-13% to his projection before lock. Why? He’s Tiger Woods.
The Intriguing Trend
It’s interesting to note that in the last 5 PGA Championships the leader on Friday night has gone on to win The PGA Championship. If your favorite golfer is sitting on top after Friday’s round, you may want to make an additional live wager based on this trend.
Lets take a look at The PGA Championship Ownership Projections to help you choose your player pools and roster selections.
| OWNERSHIP PROJECTION | ||
| PLAYER | OWN % | SALARY |
| Cantlay, Patrick | 19.9 | 9100 |
| Matsuyama, Hideki | 19.8 | 9200 |
| Spieth, Jordan | 19.6 | 9600 |
| Lowry, Shane | 19.5 | 8700 |
| Fitzpatrick, Mathew | 17.7 | 7900 |
| McIlroy, Rory | 16.7 | 10000 |
| Thomas, Justin | 16.3 | 10700 |
| Young, Cameron | 15.4 | 7600 |
| Scheffler, Scottie | 14.9 | 11400 |
| Schauffele, Xander | 14.1 | 9300 |
| Zalatoris,Will | 14.0 | 8900 |
| Smith, Cameron | 13.9 | 9700 |
| Niemann, Joaquin | 13.8 | 8500 |
| Conners, Corey | 13.4 | 8000 |
| Rahm, John | 12.5 | 11200 |
| Hovland, Viktor | 12.4 | 9900 |
| Finau, Tony | 12.3 | 7900 |
| Homa, Max | 11.5 | 8100 |
| Bradley, Keegan | 11.4 | 7500 |
| Pereira, Mito | 11.2 | 6700 |
| Morikawa, Collin | 10.7 | 10400 |
| Noren, Alex | 10.6 | 7000 |
| Berger, Daniel | 9.6 | 8600 |
| Munoz, Sebastian | 8.9 | 6800 |
| Fleetwood, Tommy | 8.7 | 7600 |
| Johnson, Dustin | 8.7 | 9500 |
| Kokrak, Jason | 8.6 | 7300 |
| Henley, Russell | 8.5 | 7200 |
| Wise, Aaron | 8.2 | 6800 |
| Horschel, Billy | 8.1 | 7400 |
| Gooch, Talor | 8.1 | 7400 |
| MacIntyre, Robert | 7.9 | 6900 |
| Varner III, Harold | 7.8 | 7000 |
| Koepka, Brooks | 7.4 | 9000 |
| Burns, Sam | 7.2 | 8800 |
| Hatton, Tyrrell | 7.1 | 8100 |
| Hadwin, Adam | 6.5 | 6300 |
| Garcia, Sergio | 6.3 | 7200 |
| Kucher, Matt | 6.2 | 6800 |
| List, Luke | 6.1 | 7200 |
| Hoge, Tom | 6.1 | 7100 |
| Oosthuizen, Louis | 5.9 | 8000 |
| Kirk, Chris | 5.7 | 6900 |
| Woodland, Gary | 5.6 | 7300 |
| Harman, Brian | 5.4 | 7000 |
| Scott,Adam | 5.3 | 7700 |
| McNealy, Maverick | 5.2 | 7100 |
| Day, Jason | 5.1 | 7500 |
| Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | 4.9 | 7000 |
| Woods, Tiger | 4.6 | 8200 |
| Griffin, Lanto | 4.3 | 6300 |
| Na, Kevin | 4.2 | 6900 |
| Riley, Davis | 4.1 | 6800 |
| Mitchell, Keith | 3.9 | 6600 |
| Reed, Patrick | 3.8 | 7200 |
| Kim, Si Woo | 3.8 | 7200 |
| Vegas, Jhonattan | 3.7 | 6900 |
| Lahiri, Anirban | 3.7 | 6500 |
| Leishman, Marc | 3.6 | 7700 |
| Straka, Sepp | 3.2 | 7200 |
| Power, Seamus | 3.2 | 7000 |
| Champ, Cameron | 2.8 | 6900 |
| Davis, Cameron | 2.7 | 6700 |
| Jones, Matt | 2.6 | 6600 |
| Fox, Ryan | 2.5 | 6300 |
| Ancer, Abraham | 2.5 | 7800 |
| Tringale, Cameron | 2.4 | 7100 |
| Van Rooyen, Erik | 2.4 | 7100 |
| Palmer, Ryan | 2.4 | 6900 |
| Rose, Justin | 2.3 | 7200 |
| Horsfield, Sam | 2.3 | 6700 |
| Spaun, JJ | 2.2 | 6400 |
| Fowler, Rickie | 2.2 | 7000 |
| Cink, Stewart | 2.1 | 6700 |
| Simpson, Webb | 1.9 | 7800 |
| Lee, KH | 1.9 | 6500 |
| Pieters, Thomas | 1.8 | 7100 |
| Wiesberger, Bernd | 1.7 | 6600 |
| Hughes, Mackenzie | 1.7 | 6600 |
| Watson, Bubba | 1.6 | 7300 |
| Molinari, Francesco | 1.5 | 6900 |
| Streelman, Kevin | 1.4 | 6800 |
| Merritt, Troy | 1.3 | 6400 |
| Knox, Russell | 1.3 | 6300 |
| Wolff, Mathew | 1.2 | 7300 |
| Schwartzel, Charl | 1.2 | 6900 |
| Poulter, Ian | 1.1 | 7000 |
| Dahmen, Joel | 1.0 | 6800 |
| Ramey, Chad | 0.9 | 6400 |
| Kim, Joohyung | 0.9 | 6300 |
| Kisner, Kevin | 0.8 | 6800 |
| Ortiz, Carlos | 0.8 | 6600 |
| Kizzire, Patton | 0.8 | 6500 |
| Glover, Lucas | 0.7 | 6500 |
| Hossler, Beau | 0.7 | 6400 |
| Kim, Chan | 0.7 | 6400 |
| Stallings, Scott | 0.7 | 6300 |
| Westwood, Lee | 0.7 | 7000 |
| Herbert, Lucas | 0.6 | 6800 |
| Arnaus, Adri | 0.6 | 6700 |
| Lee, Min Woo | 0.6 | 6700 |
| Higgs, Harry | 0.6 | 6500 |
| Bekker, Oliver | 0.6 | 6400 |
| Steele, Brendan | 0.5 | 6700 |
| Stenson, Henrik | 0.5 | 6600 |
| Bland, Richard | 0.5 | 6500 |
| Kaymer, Martin | 0.4 | 6900 |
| Grace, Branden | 0.4 | 6700 |
| Higgo, Garrick | 0.4 | 6700 |
| Johnson, Zack | 0.4 | 6600 |
| Hickok, Kramer | 0.4 | 6300 |
| Harrington, Padraig | 0.4 | 6100 |
| Swafford, Hudson | 0.3 | 6800 |
| Larrazabal, Pablo | 0.3 | 6500 |
| Yang, YE | 0.3 | 6300 |
| Burmester, Dean | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Daly, John | 0.3 | 6000 |
| Harding, Justin | 0.2 | 6700 |
| Canter, Laurie | 0.2 | 6600 |
| Van Tonder, Daniel | 0.2 | 6300 |
| Dufner, Jason | 0.2 | 6200 |
| Cejka, Alex | 0.2 | 6200 |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 0.1 | 6800 |
| Norris, Shaun | 0.1 | 6600 |
| Brehm, Ryan | 0.1 | 6500 |
| Schenk, Adam | 0.1 | 6400 |
| Block, Michael | 0.1 | 6300 |
| Beem, Rich | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Inamori, Yuki | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Kanaya, Takumi | 0.0 | 6400 |
| Kinoshita, Ryosuke | 0.0 | 6400 |
| Hoshino, Rikuya | 0.0 | 6300 |
| Micheel, Shaun | 0.0 | 6200 |
| Mueller, Jesse | 0.0 | 6200 |
| Kim, Bio | 0.0 | 6100 |
| McCarty, Sean | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Beach, Alex | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Vermeer, Ryan | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Warren, Shawn | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Kozuma, Jinichiro | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Mendoza, Kyle | 0.0 | 6100 |
| Borchert, Matthew | 0.0 | 6000 |
| Collet, Tyler | 0.0 | 6000 |
| ALL OTHERS | 0.0 |
These projections for The PGA Championship are accurate as of 7:03 EST. Top Tier Golfers will show a higher % by lock. So will Tiger Woods. **With Hideki’s neck issue it could move the top tier numbers depending on his current status.**
My picks for The PGA Championship
Top Tier: Scheffler
Mid Tier: Cantlay (Deki before the neck injury)
Low Tier: Billy Horschel
Out in Left Play: Russel Henley
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky
FR Leader: Spieth (Contrarian-Horsfield)
FR Leader: Cantlay
Be sure to check out Spenser’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. Why? They had a subscriber listen in last week and he won $50,000. He had three players make the cut on the number, one, Fitzpatrick, double bogeyed the next to last hole to go two over the cutline, he came back and Eagled the last hole to make it to the weekend. He did not have K H Lee or Spieth in his lineup and he still took the takedown. You all know I implore you to listen in to this informative money making podcast, and now you know why.
Don’t miss out on the very popular and fun PGA DraftCast with Joel, Sia, (aka Mr. Hair) and Spencer (golf writer of the year) and you, the audience, every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST! Deki-gate strikes again! Last night in the DraftCast there was more controversy when the new man, Deep Dive Dave, talked up Hideki to the audience, then took him with his first pick. This was after he mentioned he didn’t want Sia stealing his picks. He looked very sharp, like he just stepped out of a board meeting, and has the chops to back it up. I have seen Golf forecasters come and go in seven years of betting DFS golf, Dave is the real deal. His deep diving (thus the name) is based on science and numbers, he is what I call a true grinder, leaving no stone unturned and bringing solid intel to the WDS nation. His expertise in the foreign markets as well as domestic will assist you all with your DK accounts getting fatter, and he is a welcome addition to a very strong golf staff. Read his breakdowns in the PGA research tab, in the meantime I plan on getting pizza from New Zealand very soon, I understand the Kiwi/Kangaroo is very tasty!
Spencer won last week, again, it would be news but it’s like saying the sun rose again today. The audience has had a hand in stopping the streak, with Joel and Sia applying pressure every week. I won five bucks on the over with Lindsay’s exclamation marks when Will Z was picked, and I’m ducking Ivan who is looking for royalties for being mentioned in my article.
It’s PGA major week, this is a tough fair course, may you all get 6/6 through for your big contests.
**UPDATE** Bryson has withdrawn (after speaking with Casey) and Hideki is dealing with a sore neck. We will update in Discord on his condition.
As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!
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