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Tennessee Titans

Week 16 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: 49ers at Titans

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 16 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Deebo Samuel (FD $14,500, DK $17,400)

Pivot: George Kittle (FD $13,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot #2: A.J. Brown (FD $12,000, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #1: Ryan Tannehill (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garoppolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3 Brandon Aiyuk (FD $10,000, DK $12,000)

While it’s another pretty much wide open showdown in terms of CPT choice, Deebo Samuel maintains the edge over George Kittle for chalk, and it’s really hard to argue against either. Ryan Tannehill will get A.J. Brown back from IR for this one, so either of them could make sense as a contrarian play against a secondary that leaves much to be desired.

49ers notes: Samuel is the most explosive option for the 49ers, while Kittle is the most consistently productive with the highest floor over the past several weeks, but I’m still a big believer in Brandon Aiyuk, especially in a game that could have a little more offense than initially expected. Jeff Wilson has yet to settle into the role that Elijah Mitchell carved out before he injured his knee, and the Titans run defense is formidable enough that the Niners’ RBs are not a huge priority. I’m not against 2/10 GPP lineups featuring Jimmy Garoppolo at CPT and stacking with Kittle, Deebo and another SF piece against two Titans players.

Titans notes: I’d much rather stack 49ers offense than squeeze in Brown, but he’s got the most upside of any Titans player not named Tannehill. Dontrell Hilliard is a nice value since he could take the rock to the house, and I’m a little concerned that D’Onta Foreman‘s price exceeds that of Julio Jones, who i think could be the biggest beneficiary of Brown’s return and doesn’t have an injury designation despite leaving Week 15 early with a hamstring issue. Other value options include Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser and kicker Randy Bullock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Now that we’ve established some Week 16 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Deebo Samuel
George Kittle
A.J. Brown
Ryan Tannehill
Jimmy Garoppolo
Brandon Aiyuk
Julio Jones
D’Onta Foreman
Dontrell Hilliard
Jeff Wilson, Jr.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
49ers DST
Robbie Gould
Randy Bullock
Titans DST
Geoff Swaim
Anthony Firkser
Chester Rogers
Jauan Jennings
Jeremy McNichols
Kyle Juszczyk
JaMycal Hasty
Mycole Pruitt

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight – San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Tonight’s Thursday night match up between the 49ers (8-6) and Titans (9-5). The 49ers come in to this one riding a 2 game winning streak trying to solidify their playoff spot. They will be without Elijah Mitchell for a third straight game as was already ruled out. The AFC South leading Titans look to pad their lead tonight with a win. One of the things they have riding for them tonight is the possible return of star wideout and favorite target of Ryan Tannehill, Mr. A.J. Brown.

Let’s dig in and see if the we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Jimmy Garoppolo – 239.5 Passing Yards – More

Only the Buccaneers have given up fewer rushing yards on the year than the Tennessee Titans. The Titans own one of the best rush defenses in the league. Because of that, I expect the 49ers to have to pass more in this game. In order for them to win tonight, they’ll need to have a ton of success through the air and for Garoppolo to have one of his better games of the year. Thankfully, the Titans are nowhere near as good against QB’s as they are running backs.

They’re in the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards against. Monkey Knife Fight is giving us a goal of 239.5 yards tonight and it’s a number that Garoppolo has hit twice in the last 3 weeks. The passing game for the 49ers normally starts with George Kittle. That said, I expect Garoppolo to use his wideouts a bit more tonight as the Titans are one of the best teams in the league against tight ends.

Against wide receivers? They are one of the worst as only the Vikings have given up more yards to wide receivers. While I do still love Kittle in this game, I’m looking for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to be the biggest beneficiaries of the passing game tonight. I’m going with More side for Garoppolo tonight.

Ryan Tannehill – 205.5 Passing Yards – More

This is the side that is trickier in my opinion. Tannehill has not been overly sharp over the past few weeks. He’s in one of the worst stretches of his career as he’s been under 200 yards passing in 3 consecutive weeks. The common denominator in those games is that he’s been mostly without his top two targets in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. While Jones is no longer the receiver he used to be when he was with the Falcons, he’s still an imposing force that’s very capable of catching balls.

In A.J. Brown we have someone that has back-to-back seasons of 1,000 receiving yards and if it wasn’t for injures he’d easily have a third. With both of them potentially back tonight, Tannehill will be back to having 2 of his main targets. If they are back and healthy tonight Tannehill should be able to get over the 205-yard mark that Monkey Knife Fight has given us tonight. As of writing this, they are expected to play so I’m going to side with the More. Should something happen today where neither plays, Tannehill under 200 yards for a fourth straight game seems like a no-brainer and I’d go with the Less Side.

More or Less #2 – 3.6 Payout

Jeff Wilson – 64.5 Rushing Yards – Less

With Eli Mitchell out tonight Wilson will again be the top running back for the 49ers. Last week against the 24^th ranked rushing defense of the Falcons he was able to gain 110 yards rushing on 21 carries. Tonight’s a much tougher task as he’s facing one of the best rush defenses in the Titans. I highlighted it above when talking about Garoppolo that only the Buccaneers have given up fewer rushing yards than the Titans.

Although the 49ers will try to establish the run early to help with their passing game, I just don’t think they’ll have much success against a team that has given up 65 rushing yards to running backs just once over the past 5 weeks. Less side for me here.

D’Onta Foreman – 54.5 Rushing Yards – More

The Titans are expected to get some big weapons back tonight with the returns of Jones and Brown. If that does happen it actually makes me like D’Onta Foreman even more than I already do. A more spread-out offense only helps to make it a more effective offense too.

In the last 3 weeks, Foreman has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice. While I don’t expect him to get quite up that number tonight, I do expect him to crush the 54.5 yards that Monkey Knife Fight has picked for us. I’m going with More here.

Already a member, don’t forget to use our optimizer daily.

Good luck tonight and hope you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

Week 6 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,000, DK $19,200)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (FD $15,500, DK $17,100)

Contrarian #1: Stefon Diggs (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Ryan Tannehill (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Emmanuel Sanders (FD $10,000, DK $12,900)

The clear chalk on tonight’s showdown is Josh Allen, who started off slowly the first two weeks but has picked up the pace and is putting up numbers similar to his 2020 breakout campaign — averaging around 33 DK points over his last three weeks. While the standard pivot will be Titans RB Derrick Henry, the stud tailback will have a tough matchup against a stout Bills run defense that ranks fist in the league against fantasy RBs. There’s no standout bargain option under $10K at captain unless we consider a risky Julio Jones or the kicker/defense route.

Bills notes: I’m most interested in the productive trio of Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox and RB Zack Moss, but both Emmanuel Sanders and Devin Singletary are in play for the Bills this week as well — as Allen has done a great job the past two seasons of spreading the ball around to many different skill positions and options. We could see monster games from both Diggs and Sanders, as the Titans defense doesn’t have anyone to keep with either of their route running skills and speed/separation abilities. Slot maven Cole Beasley has ben relatively quiet thus far in 2021, but he could have a breakout at any moment.

Titans notes: The best move is to probably fade Henry in most builds and count on a negative game script for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans passing game, working in shares of Jones, TE Anthony Firkser and stud WR A.J. Brown, who is questionable with an illness but is expected to be available. Aside from that, we have the disappointing but potent Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a questionable Chester Rogers (groin) and an uncertain backfield after Henry, who could log more receptions than usual this week but will have a tough time returning value at that salary.

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Titans DST, who will have its hands full with this Bills juggernaut offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Westbrook-Ikhine and Beasley.

Now that we’ve established some Week 6 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Josh Allen
Ryan Tannehill
Stefon Diggs
Zack Moss
Emmanuel Sanders
A.J. Brown
Derrick Henry
Julio Jones
Dawson Knox
Anthony Firkser
Bills DST
Devin Singletary
Tyler Bass
Randy Bullock
Cole Beasley
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Gabriel Davis
Chester Rogers
MyCole Pruitt
Titans DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3

Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH

I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.

Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.

I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson

Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 10 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Colts at Titans

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Ryan Tannehill (DK $16,800, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,200, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: AJ Brown (DK $15,600, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Philip Rivers (DK $14,700, FD $12,500)

The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL – and the run defense may very well be the best in the game – so Ryan Tannehill could be throwing the ball more than normal to move the football up the field. He’s no Lamar Jackson, so they will likely take a different approach than the Ravens did on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is second in the league in rushing (843 yards) behind Dalvin Cook and hasn’t had the same success in recent weeks – held under his usual benchmark of 100 yards in two of the last three games. While I wouldn’t categorize him as a contrarian play, he makes for an interesting pivot from Tannehill, who’s the highest priced player on both sites.

Perhaps the sharpest choice for captain this week is AJ Brown, and explosive playmaker who carries enormous upside into every matchup. He’s physical, he’s fast, and he won’t be deterred by the challenge of Indy’s stout defense. Corey Davis has seen a career resurgence in 2020, making him a solid option as well, and TE Jonnu Smith has been a feast-or famine fantasy producer this season with five TDs over his first four games and just one since (2-32-1 in Week 9 vs. CHI).

To further complicate things, Anthony Firkser has been the more productive Titans TE since Week 5. Making a captain selection is difficult because the Titans roll out a pretty balanced offensive attack, so I could see a drastic approach of playing the Titans DST at CPT on DraftKings in order to fit in all the studs.

Philip Rivers (who may get benched at some point in favor of Jacoby Brissett) gets back an important weapon in the relatively inexpensive T.Y. Hilton, who rejoins a WR corps that includes rookie Michael Pittman, the inconsistent Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson – who’s actually been targeted 19 times over the past three games.

Their RBs (rookie Jonathan Taylor, change of pack back Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins) have been a frustrating group for fantasy owners – since there’s no indication of who’s going to be the main producer. The best option is still probably Taylor, who is usually the early focal point of the running attack, but that could easily shift to Hines in a negative game script.

There’s no Jack Doyle (concussion) this week, so we can expect a few targets for Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee) and Trey Burton. Burton has more red-zone upside (with rushing TDs in consecutive games straddling the Week 7 bye), but last week we saw Alie-Cox find paydirt.

This game is going to be a grind, with both teams approaching full strength and the lack of an obvious game script – but I’m comfortable using lots of Henry/Titans DST and a smattering of Tannehill/Brown/Smith stacks with Rivers and some Indy skill players on the other side.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on the sub-$3K punts on DK – there’s plenty of productive guys from $3-9K offering excellent upside.

DO: Deploy a balanced approach for the Titans – because that’s how they roll – and mix in some of their defense as Philip Rivers has not been great this season.

DON’T: Forget about Rivers/Hilton in GPPs, however, as they could be a game-breaking combo this week if Hilton isn’t limited.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Derrick Henry
Ryan Tannehill
AJ Brown
Philip Rivers
Jonnu Smith
Corey Davis
T.Y. Hilton
Titans DST
Jonathan Taylor
Nyheim Hines
Colts DST
Zach Pascal
Trey Burton
Anthony Firkser
Stephen Gostkowski
Michael Pittman, Jr.
Marcus Johnson
Ryan Blankenship
Jordan Wilkins
DeMichael Harris

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 5 NFL DFS Tuesday Night Showdown Preview: Bills at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 5 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

A bizarre Week 5 NFL DFS concludes with the Bills and Titans on a rare Tuesday night contest, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $19,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Devin Singletary (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jonnu Smith (DK $10,800, FD $10,500)

Some notable injuries/COVID updates: For the Bills, rookie RB Zack Moss (toe), veteran WR John Brown (calf) and standout CB Tre’Davious White are all questionable, with Brown having the best chance of suiting up and contributing. LB Matt Milano is out. White’s absence would mean a logical upgrade for A.J., Brown (knee, questionable), who is expected to return for the Titans following three weeks off. The Titans will be without WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who are both on the reserve/COVID-19 list along with seven other Tennessee players. The preparation, talent, health and overall football edge is overwhelmingly in the Bills favor, though the defensive unit – especially the secondary – is pretty banged up.

The obvious chalk at captain will be Bills QB Josh Allen, who leads his undefeated team into Tennessee on the heels of four straight 25+ point fantasy performances. He’s averaging an impressive 8.96 yards per pass attempt this season (second to only Jared Goff), has thrown for 1,326-12-1 in four games and has added 83 rushing yards and three TDs on the ground. I’ll gladly eat this chalk and pair him with speedy WR Stefon Diggs. Using Allen with Devin Singletary is also a possibility, since the Bills could be spending a lot of time in the Titans red zone and the Tennessee secondary is one of its strengths, with Kevin Byard, Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph and Kenny Vaccaro all healthy for this game.

My favorite pivot if you can’t afford Allen at CPT is Derrick Henry, assuming they continue to utilize him in the passing game. I could see Ryan Tannehill or A.J. Brown having a big game as well, but the Bills are missing Milano and Henry has logged 34, 27 and 29 touches in his first three games of 2020. The former Heisman winner is fully rested; the last game the Titans played was in September.

Another option for the CPT spot on DK is Jonnu Smith, sincehe could see upwards of 10 targets from Tannehill this game, and he allows you to fit in several Bills players and Henry.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Forget to check inactives before game time and be ready to pivot. It’s a pretty fluid situation these days and there are some obscure but possibly relevant Titans WRs (Kalif Raymond, Nick Westbrook, Chester Rogers and Cody Hollister) in the player pool for this showdown, especially if A.J. Brown has any kind of setback leading up to kickoff.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Sleep on Devin Singletary tonight, especially if he’s paired with the Bills defense. The Bills RB is affordable on both sites, and that’s one build where you don’t necessarily have to plug in Allen, too.

Josh Allen
Derrick Henry
Devin Singletary
Stefon Diggs
Jonnu Smith
A.J. Brown (knee, questionable)
Ryan Tannehill
Cole Beasley
Bills DST
John Brown (knee, questionable)
Kalif Raymond
Dawson Knox
Gabriel Davis
Tyler Bass
Stephen Gostkowski
Zack Moss (toe, questionable)
Anthony Firkser
Tyler Kroft
Nick Westbrook
Titans DST

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

So nice we’re doing it twice. My original plans were to cover DraftKings featured Showdown only with the Titans at Broncos but you guys have spoken and I will gladly sit down and talk Steelers/Giants. I really do not know why this was not chosen as the featured contest for DK but that is a different conversation all together. Without further delay here is Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants

As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. With a projected total of 45 and the Steelers favored by 5.5 the path that we can project as the most likely is Pittsburgh leaning a bit more on their run game and the Giants attacking through the air to catch up. That immediately puts guys like James Connor, Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, and what I suspect will be the toughest pick, one of the Giants receivers into your core. You need to take a stand one way or the other and live with your choice unless you plan on MME. My personal choice is to assume a limited workload or even a no start for Golden Tate and run out Darius Slayton. I think that of the three Giants receivers his ownership will be the lowest and his upside has been displayed in two contests last year where he exceeded 35 DK points against the Jets and Eagles. This is a difficult proposition against the 3-4 Steelers D with Joe Haden and Steven Nelson but with a back like Saquon Barkley they can attack this defense with what is called a four man flood, stick concept which is a concept where you create a lot of traffic on one side (usually four pass catchers and a back in the flat) which creates large openings in the deep post on zone concepts which is where Slayton’s bread and butter is. Speaking of Barkley, we all know what he is so I don’t feel that I need to say much on him. If the Steelers run more man concept today Barkley will be a huge beneficiary receiving out of the backfield using the offensive concept I mentioned above so look for it early. Also you can not afford all of the studs so in this scenario so Ben Rothesberger and his terrible splits and Juju Smith-Schuster get left out for me. You can play that scenario but the build will be vastly different. That gives me my five and as I always state, per DraftKings guidelines I can go no further but that leaves you $4,800 for guys like James Washington, Benny Snell, or Graham Gano, or you can toy around with a different Giants receiver and see where that leads you.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, James Conner

Low Owned GPP Captain Pivots: Evan Engram, (any Giants Receiver but Darius Slayton is my play), James Washington, Diontae Johnson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

No rest for the weary, as I sit watching our Sunday night showdown contest between the Cowboys and Rams and considering which direction we should go with our Monday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos. It’s going to be a stark contrast from tonight’s contest with two of the slowest paced teams from 2019 and two teams that love to run the football. The build structure is going to looks quite differently where we can even justify the use of kickers and defenses in certain situations. So, if you can get a little crazy and want to have some fun with a showdown slate come check out Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos Core:

The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. I won’t make the same mistake as tonight, Derrick Henry ($17,400/$11,600) is the first name you should but in your builds. It’s his show and we all know it. It’s up to you on whether or not to have him as your flex or captain but know that he will be the highest owned captain without question tomorrow and it will be extremely hard to take the contest without 100+ other people. Next is either Melvin Gordon ($12,000/$8,000) or Phillip Lindsey ($11,400/$7,600), my first instinct is go Gordon but every time the Broncos try to replace him he keeps forcing them to keep him in the backfield. So pick your poison there. Next for me is Jonnu Smith ($8,700/$5,800), I really thing he is mispriced. Once Tannehill took over he became a staple in the offensive game plan seeing between 4-7 targets a game and usually hauling them all in further down the field finishing second in yards per target of fourth in catch rate and I expect his growth to continue. So lets see where that puts us.

Now if you believe this game stays on the ground and Lock has a sophmore slump and this stays a slower running game you can throw in the Titans D ($7,500/$5,000) for another core piece. I don’t really recommend the Broncos D, not because of talent, but because the Titans leverage the crap out of low risk situation with ball control and play action. I do not see much in terms of turnovers or sacks from them. I’m going to pretend we’re going the other way and Drew Lock ($14,400/$9,600) has some success in the air. I do not like his price so I will use him in flex and pair him with Jerry Jeudy ($10,800/$7,200) in the captain spot which leaves us with $4200. In that range we can take advantage of the thin air with Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, Daesean Hamilton who flashed in his final two games last season, or Adam Humphries who likely will not give you 20 PPR points but if he gives you 10 points at $2,200 you’re in good shape if the rest of your lineup hits.

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Chalk Captains: Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Ryan Tannehill

Low Owned GPP Captains: Jonnu Smith, Courtland Sutton (IF ACTIVE), Daesean Hamilton (IF SUTTON INACTIVE), Titans Defense (If playing the running script)

I think people will be scared off putting Sutton in the captain spot if he’s active and I love that with his upside potential in a match-up where low owned upside will be hard to find.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Pick Management 5 years ago

written by Pick Management

Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back to give you all his best Conference Championship plays. Two sides, a teaser and player prop are going to be above-average wins today, which means you make money!

Take Kansas City Chiefs -7 versus Tennessee Titans (3:05 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)

6.5 Point Teaser- Kansas City Chiefs -.5 / San Francisco 49’ers -1 (3:05 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)

I’m going to ride with the favorites this weekend as we have two exciting Conference Championship matchups. Kansas City and San Francisco have had their ups and downs, but the adjustments made over the season make me believe it’s the year for these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl.

Last week, Kansas City had the second greatest comeback in recent memory (The first is the Patriots Super Bowl win over Atlanta). Watching Houston’s 24-0 lead evaporate in minutes was incredible, it was such a stellar performance by KC. This shows that an above-average offense with a great coach is a pretty unstoppable force against teams with obvious weaknesses like Houston. It wasn’t just that performance, it’s been the year as a whole – especially the last seven games of the year. Since Kansas City’s loss to Tennessee: they have covered seven, pushed once, and they have really punished teams. In that time, they have held two teams to just three points, and one to nine. The defense has really stepped up, and that will be a problem for Ryan Tannehill who has had just seven completions in the last three games. The Titans have made it by on the back of Derrick Henry, but that will stop in this game. The Kansas City offense is such a juggernaut that the Titans are going to have to throw the ball. I see Kansas City getting out to an early double-digit lead, and you can’t just run the ball to come back from that. Home teams in the AFC Conference Championship games are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS the last 13 years.

To me, this is just Kansas City’s year. The Titans win over the Chiefs earlier this year had some hijinx in it, and Pat Mahomes was just returning for injury. I like that the Titans beat them earlier this year because I think it gives them a false sense of security against Kansas City. Take Kansas City -7 and in the teaser -.5.

Take San Francisco 49’ers -7.5 versus Green Bay Packers (6:40 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)

Did you know that both Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers were both backups for three years to Hall of Famers? Did you also know that Aaron Rodgers had his Super Bowl win in his sixth season, and that this is Jimmy G’s sixth season? I really think this game is set up to be a changing of the guard in the NFL. I believe that Rodgers is on his way out as a top quarterback in the league, and Garppolo is going to be the one to take his place.

Somehow, the Packers have put together 14 regular-season wins, but they simply don’t have the talent to keep up with San Francisco. To me, the Packers have just three above-average players who can impact the game: Rodgers, Jones, and Adams. That just won’t be enough when facing a team that is above-average on both sides of the ball, and who have the better coach. San Francisco is a team of studs, and I think they do what they please to the Packers. The mix of an explosive offense and stout defense will be too much to overcome for Rodgers. The Packers struggled last week against Seattle, who is nowhere near as good as the 49ers.

I think San Francisco gets a double-digit win as Jimmy G has settled into being a playoff quarterback. As he continues to relax, the offense will only improve. Rodgers is going to have to put this game on his back, and I think this time it’ll be too much to carry.

Derrick Henry Rush Yards OVER 109.5 -134

I like Derrick Henry to go over his rushing yards total this game, and he will get most of it done in the first half. The one vulnerability I see Kansas City having is that they don’t have the best rush defense (it’s not the worst, either). The KC rush defense is pedestrian, allowing 129.44 rush yards per game at home. The beginning of this game will be competitive, and that is when Henry gets his yards. I think he may break a big run too, which he does in most games. As this game goes on, the Chiefs are going to get a substantial lead. The Titans will have to get away from the run, but I like Henry to rack up some yards early. Take Derrick Henry Rush Yards over 109.5 (-134).

(Odds provided by DraftKings.)

5 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Pick Management 5 years ago

written by Pick Management

Jacob’s Above Average Plays has had a phenomenal week and plans on continuing that today. Three more plays one NHL, one NBA, and an NFL playoff pick, that are going to break the books.

Take Baltimore -9.5 versus Tennessee (8:15 pm EST, Saturday 11 January 2020)

Well, we’ve made it to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs and, man, it’s been a crazy year and I do not think any other teams had a crazier run than these two. I think this will be a really good game but Baltimore is the better team. I see them not only advancing to the next round but covering this game.

Tennessee won last week versus the defending world champion, Patriots, but they didn’t look great and the Patriots played terribly. That is actually not a good thing as teams who beat the defending champions have gone just 1-13 next week. In last week’s game, quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, completed just eight of his fifteen pass attempts. That won’t be enough to beat or even stay close to the Ravens number one scoring offense in the league and number one in yards per game. While Tennessee has been putting up points, they face off against the number 7 all-time defense in DVOA and I think this is their year. While Derrick Henry repeatedly had above-average games including last week rushing for 180 yards versus the Patriots, that wasn’t the same New England defense that started the year. So, I really think it was a misrepresentation of the Tennessee offense.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has not just been above average but stellar all year. They have the number one scoring offense, number two overall offense, the 7th best defense per DVOA of all time, and their defense holds teams to an average of 93.4 rush yards per game. In the last ten games, they won eight by double digits and they held five playoff teams this year under 20 points.

I really think Baltimore can name the score in this one. Baltimore, in my opinion, is the most complete team in the NFL and Tennessee’s performance, or lack of performance, was the deciding factor in this one. Take Baltimore minus the points.

Take Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia OVER 1.5 Goals First Period -167 ( 7:00 pm EST, Saturday, 11 January 2020)

Two of the NHL’s best scoring offenses face off tonight in what I think will be the highest-scoring game of the night. Tampa Bay plays hard and fast and Philly loves to pour in goals early and often.

This game will see goals early. Philly scored in the first ten minutes of their games in 32 out of the 44 games played which are obviously way above average when compared to the rest of the NHL. The Lightning did it in 25 of the 43 games that they have played. When it comes to the total going over one and a half goals in the first period, it gets even better. In the last ten games, Philly went over the total in seven and in five of ten for Tampa Bay. Overall in the first period, the total went over one and a half in just about 57% of the time and in about half of Tampa Bay’s games.

This game will go over in the first period. In six of the last seven matchups between these two teams, with Tampa Bay as the road team, the game total went over. Tampa Bay is the number one offense in the NHL and Philly is ranked 12th, scoring an above-average 3.18 goals per game. At home, Philly is ranked fourth in offense, scoring an above-average 3.75 goals per game.

This is going to be an exciting game. There will be goals on top of goals in a fast-paced, competitive game between two tough teams. I really like the over in this game, as I think we see more than seven goals. Take over 1.5 goals in the first period -167.

Take Oklahoma City -1 versus LA Lakers ( 8:00 pm EST, Saturday 11 January 2020)

Oklahoma City is the best cover team in the NBA and they are playing way above average from what they were. Usually, I wouldn’t go against the Lakers but they are not at full strength as Anthony Davis is out and Lebron probably isn’t playing. Because of their absences, I am all over the Thunder.

I nailed OKC as a dog the other night as the blew out Houston winning 113-92. They average 108.93 ppg and they rank ninth in field goal percentage (at home they rank first). They have an above-average defense, allowing 106.95 ppg, and, with the Lakers missing the majority of their playmakers, I really think LA will struggle tonight. Oklahoma has a great home record, winning 13 of their 19 home games, covering in 12 of them. The Thunder covered seven of the last ten games versus the Lakers.

The Lakers are going to struggle tonight without Lebron and Davis. I can’t put too much into their stats with their stars missing from this game. I think that they can step up defensively in this game. They rank eighth in road defense and a lot of their defense comes from roll players like Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. I think that the Lakers can at least keep this a low scoring game but they’re going to struggle on offense.

OKC is playing above-average basketball at home. They are 12-2 as a favorite and, in the last ten games versus the Lakers, they averaged 113 points. Going 11-2 against the spread versus the Lakers, in the last 13 games, is no small feat. With OKC winning eight of the last eight games and covering in seven of them, I see them taking it to the Lakers! Teams don’t get many opportunities to give the Lakers a loss and I see the Thunder handing them one tonight. Take Oklahoma -1.

(If Davis or James plays, this is a NO PLAY)

5 years ago 0 comments

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Tennessee Titans

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Deebo Samuel (FD $14,500, DK $17,400)

Pivot: George Kittle (FD $13,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot #2: A.J. Brown (FD $12,000, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #1: Ryan Tannehill (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garoppolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3 Brandon Aiyuk (FD $10,000, DK $12,000)

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

More or Less #2 – 3.6 Payout

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,000, DK $19,200)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (FD $15,500, DK $17,100)

Contrarian #1: Stefon Diggs (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Ryan Tannehill (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Emmanuel Sanders (FD $10,000, DK $12,900)

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Ryan Tannehill (DK $16,800, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,200, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: AJ Brown (DK $15,600, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Philip Rivers (DK $14,700, FD $12,500)

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $19,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Devin Singletary (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jonnu Smith (DK $10,800, FD $10,500)

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants:

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos Core:

Captains Spot: Preferred Chalk and Low Owned Plays.

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