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Tonight’s Thursday night match up between the 49ers (8-6) and Titans (9-5). The 49ers come in to this one riding a 2 game winning streak trying to solidify their playoff spot. They will be without Elijah Mitchell for a third straight game as was already ruled out. The AFC South leading Titans look to pad their lead tonight with a win. One of the things they have riding for them tonight is the possible return of star wideout and favorite target of Ryan Tannehill, Mr. A.J. Brown.
Let’s dig in and see if the we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.
Jimmy Garoppolo – 239.5 Passing Yards – More
Only the Buccaneers have given up fewer rushing yards on the year than the Tennessee Titans. The Titans own one of the best rush defenses in the league. Because of that, I expect the 49ers to have to pass more in this game. In order for them to win tonight, they’ll need to have a ton of success through the air and for Garoppolo to have one of his better games of the year. Thankfully, the Titans are nowhere near as good against QB’s as they are running backs.
They’re in the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards against. Monkey Knife Fight is giving us a goal of 239.5 yards tonight and it’s a number that Garoppolo has hit twice in the last 3 weeks. The passing game for the 49ers normally starts with George Kittle. That said, I expect Garoppolo to use his wideouts a bit more tonight as the Titans are one of the best teams in the league against tight ends.
Against wide receivers? They are one of the worst as only the Vikings have given up more yards to wide receivers. While I do still love Kittle in this game, I’m looking for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to be the biggest beneficiaries of the passing game tonight. I’m going with More side for Garoppolo tonight.
Ryan Tannehill – 205.5 Passing Yards – More
This is the side that is trickier in my opinion. Tannehill has not been overly sharp over the past few weeks. He’s in one of the worst stretches of his career as he’s been under 200 yards passing in 3 consecutive weeks. The common denominator in those games is that he’s been mostly without his top two targets in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. While Jones is no longer the receiver he used to be when he was with the Falcons, he’s still an imposing force that’s very capable of catching balls.
In A.J. Brown we have someone that has back-to-back seasons of 1,000 receiving yards and if it wasn’t for injures he’d easily have a third. With both of them potentially back tonight, Tannehill will be back to having 2 of his main targets. If they are back and healthy tonight Tannehill should be able to get over the 205-yard mark that Monkey Knife Fight has given us tonight. As of writing this, they are expected to play so I’m going to side with the More. Should something happen today where neither plays, Tannehill under 200 yards for a fourth straight game seems like a no-brainer and I’d go with the Less Side.
Jeff Wilson – 64.5 Rushing Yards – Less
With Eli Mitchell out tonight Wilson will again be the top running back for the 49ers. Last week against the 24th ranked rushing defense of the Falcons he was able to gain 110 yards rushing on 21 carries. Tonight’s a much tougher task as he’s facing one of the best rush defenses in the Titans. I highlighted it above when talking about Garoppolo that only the Buccaneers have given up fewer rushing yards than the Titans.
Although the 49ers will try to establish the run early to help with their passing game, I just don’t think they’ll have much success against a team that has given up 65 rushing yards to running backs just once over the past 5 weeks. Less side for me here.
D’Onta Foreman – 54.5 Rushing Yards – More
The Titans are expected to get some big weapons back tonight with the returns of Jones and Brown. If that does happen it actually makes me like D’Onta Foreman even more than I already do. A more spread-out offense only helps to make it a more effective offense too.
In the last 3 weeks, Foreman has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice. While I don’t expect him to get quite up that number tonight, I do expect him to crush the 54.5 yards that Monkey Knife Fight has picked for us. I’m going with More here.
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Good luck tonight and hope you cash!
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We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3
Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH
I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.
Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.
I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.
With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson
Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL – and the run defense may very well be the best in the game – so Ryan Tannehill could be throwing the ball more than normal to move the football up the field. He’s no Lamar Jackson, so they will likely take a different approach than the Ravens did on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is second in the league in rushing (843 yards) behind Dalvin Cook and hasn’t had the same success in recent weeks – held under his usual benchmark of 100 yards in two of the last three games. While I wouldn’t categorize him as a contrarian play, he makes for an interesting pivot from Tannehill, who’s the highest priced player on both sites.
Perhaps the sharpest choice for captain this week is AJ Brown, and explosive playmaker who carries enormous upside into every matchup. He’s physical, he’s fast, and he won’t be deterred by the challenge of Indy’s stout defense. Corey Davis has seen a career resurgence in 2020, making him a solid option as well, and TE Jonnu Smith has been a feast-or famine fantasy producer this season with five TDs over his first four games and just one since (2-32-1 in Week 9 vs. CHI).
To further complicate things, Anthony Firkser has been the more productive Titans TE since Week 5. Making a captain selection is difficult because the Titans roll out a pretty balanced offensive attack, so I could see a drastic approach of playing the Titans DST at CPT on DraftKings in order to fit in all the studs.
Philip Rivers (who may get benched at some point in favor of Jacoby Brissett) gets back an important weapon in the relatively inexpensive T.Y. Hilton, who rejoins a WR corps that includes rookie Michael Pittman, the inconsistent Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson – who’s actually been targeted 19 times over the past three games.
Their RBs (rookie Jonathan Taylor, change of pack back Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins) have been a frustrating group for fantasy owners – since there’s no indication of who’s going to be the main producer. The best option is still probably Taylor, who is usually the early focal point of the running attack, but that could easily shift to Hines in a negative game script.
There’s no Jack Doyle (concussion) this week, so we can expect a few targets for Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee) and Trey Burton. Burton has more red-zone upside (with rushing TDs in consecutive games straddling the Week 7 bye), but last week we saw Alie-Cox find paydirt.
This game is going to be a grind, with both teams approaching full strength and the lack of an obvious game script – but I’m comfortable using lots of Henry/Titans DST and a smattering of Tannehill/Brown/Smith stacks with Rivers and some Indy skill players on the other side.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Focus too much on the sub-$3K punts on DK – there’s plenty of productive guys from $3-9K offering excellent upside.
DO: Deploy a balanced approach for the Titans – because that’s how they roll – and mix in some of their defense as Philip Rivers has not been great this season.
DON’T: Forget about Rivers/Hilton in GPPs, however, as they could be a game-breaking combo this week if Hilton isn’t limited.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
A bizarre Week 5 NFL DFS concludes with the Bills and Titans on a rare Tuesday night contest, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Some notable injuries/COVID updates: For the Bills, rookie RB Zack Moss (toe), veteran WR John Brown (calf) and standout CB Tre’Davious White are all questionable, with Brown having the best chance of suiting up and contributing. LB Matt Milano is out. White’s absence would mean a logical upgrade for A.J., Brown (knee, questionable), who is expected to return for the Titans following three weeks off. The Titans will be without WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who are both on the reserve/COVID-19 list along with seven other Tennessee players. The preparation, talent, health and overall football edge is overwhelmingly in the Bills favor, though the defensive unit – especially the secondary – is pretty banged up.
The obvious chalk at captain will be Bills QB Josh Allen, who leads his undefeated team into Tennessee on the heels of four straight 25+ point fantasy performances. He’s averaging an impressive 8.96 yards per pass attempt this season (second to only Jared Goff), has thrown for 1,326-12-1 in four games and has added 83 rushing yards and three TDs on the ground. I’ll gladly eat this chalk and pair him with speedy WR Stefon Diggs. Using Allen with Devin Singletary is also a possibility, since the Bills could be spending a lot of time in the Titans red zone and the Tennessee secondary is one of its strengths, with Kevin Byard, Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph and Kenny Vaccaro all healthy for this game.
My favorite pivot if you can’t afford Allen at CPT is Derrick Henry, assuming they continue to utilize him in the passing game. I could see Ryan Tannehill or A.J. Brown having a big game as well, but the Bills are missing Milano and Henry has logged 34, 27 and 29 touches in his first three games of 2020. The former Heisman winner is fully rested; the last game the Titans played was in September.
Another option for the CPT spot on DK is Jonnu Smith, sincehe could see upwards of 10 targets from Tannehill this game, and he allows you to fit in several Bills players and Henry.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Forget to check inactives before game time and be ready to pivot. It’s a pretty fluid situation these days and there are some obscure but possibly relevant Titans WRs (Kalif Raymond, Nick Westbrook, Chester Rogers and Cody Hollister) in the player pool for this showdown, especially if A.J. Brown has any kind of setback leading up to kickoff.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Sleep on Devin Singletary tonight, especially if he’s paired with the Bills defense. The Bills RB is affordable on both sites, and that’s one build where you don’t necessarily have to plug in Allen, too.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
So nice we’re doing it twice. My original plans were to cover DraftKings featured Showdown only with the Titans at Broncos but you guys have spoken and I will gladly sit down and talk Steelers/Giants. I really do not know why this was not chosen as the featured contest for DK but that is a different conversation all together. Without further delay here is Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants
As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.
The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. With a projected total of 45 and the Steelers favored by 5.5 the path that we can project as the most likely is Pittsburgh leaning a bit more on their run game and the Giants attacking through the air to catch up. That immediately puts guys like James Connor, Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, and what I suspect will be the toughest pick, one of the Giants receivers into your core. You need to take a stand one way or the other and live with your choice unless you plan on MME. My personal choice is to assume a limited workload or even a no start for Golden Tate and run out Darius Slayton. I think that of the three Giants receivers his ownership will be the lowest and his upside has been displayed in two contests last year where he exceeded 35 DK points against the Jets and Eagles. This is a difficult proposition against the 3-4 Steelers D with Joe Haden and Steven Nelson but with a back like Saquon Barkley they can attack this defense with what is called a four man flood, stick concept which is a concept where you create a lot of traffic on one side (usually four pass catchers and a back in the flat) which creates large openings in the deep post on zone concepts which is where Slayton’s bread and butter is. Speaking of Barkley, we all know what he is so I don’t feel that I need to say much on him. If the Steelers run more man concept today Barkley will be a huge beneficiary receiving out of the backfield using the offensive concept I mentioned above so look for it early. Also you can not afford all of the studs so in this scenario so Ben Rothesberger and his terrible splits and Juju Smith-Schuster get left out for me. You can play that scenario but the build will be vastly different. That gives me my five and as I always state, per DraftKings guidelines I can go no further but that leaves you $4,800 for guys like James Washington, Benny Snell, or Graham Gano, or you can toy around with a different Giants receiver and see where that leads you.
Chalk Captains: Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones, James Conner
Low Owned GPP Captain Pivots: Evan Engram, (any Giants Receiver but Darius Slayton is my play), James Washington, Diontae Johnson
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Steelers at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
No rest for the weary, as I sit watching our Sunday night showdown contest between the Cowboys and Rams and considering which direction we should go with our Monday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos. It’s going to be a stark contrast from tonight’s contest with two of the slowest paced teams from 2019 and two teams that love to run the football. The build structure is going to looks quite differently where we can even justify the use of kickers and defenses in certain situations. So, if you can get a little crazy and want to have some fun with a showdown slate come check out Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos.
As we all know we need to get a little bit weird in order to take down a big showdown by yourself, you have to take stands on guys that you normally would not in a normal slate and take sub-optimal approaches. If your goal is to min cash go ahead and play the chalk and hop into the 50/50’s and double-ups. That’s not what this is. Historically speaking the type of showdown lineups that solo take-down a contest would make you shake your head. Fading studs, leaving too much salary on the table, and negative correlations are a common site on these one game contests.
The first thing that we are looking at is our core for our builds that we will want to have in your lineup if playing one lineup and the bulk of your builds for MME. I won’t make the same mistake as tonight, Derrick Henry ($17,400/$11,600) is the first name you should but in your builds. It’s his show and we all know it. It’s up to you on whether or not to have him as your flex or captain but know that he will be the highest owned captain without question tomorrow and it will be extremely hard to take the contest without 100+ other people. Next is either Melvin Gordon ($12,000/$8,000) or Phillip Lindsey ($11,400/$7,600), my first instinct is go Gordon but every time the Broncos try to replace him he keeps forcing them to keep him in the backfield. So pick your poison there. Next for me is Jonnu Smith ($8,700/$5,800), I really thing he is mispriced. Once Tannehill took over he became a staple in the offensive game plan seeing between 4-7 targets a game and usually hauling them all in further down the field finishing second in yards per target of fourth in catch rate and I expect his growth to continue. So lets see where that puts us.
Now if you believe this game stays on the ground and Lock has a sophmore slump and this stays a slower running game you can throw in the Titans D ($7,500/$5,000) for another core piece. I don’t really recommend the Broncos D, not because of talent, but because the Titans leverage the crap out of low risk situation with ball control and play action. I do not see much in terms of turnovers or sacks from them. I’m going to pretend we’re going the other way and Drew Lock ($14,400/$9,600) has some success in the air. I do not like his price so I will use him in flex and pair him with Jerry Jeudy ($10,800/$7,200) in the captain spot which leaves us with $4200. In that range we can take advantage of the thin air with Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, Daesean Hamilton who flashed in his final two games last season, or Adam Humphries who likely will not give you 20 PPR points but if he gives you 10 points at $2,200 you’re in good shape if the rest of your lineup hits.
Chalk Captains: Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Ryan Tannehill
Low Owned GPP Captains: Jonnu Smith, Courtland Sutton (IF ACTIVE), Daesean Hamilton (IF SUTTON INACTIVE), Titans Defense (If playing the running script)
I think people will be scared off putting Sutton in the captain spot if he’s active and I love that with his upside potential in a match-up where low owned upside will be hard to find.
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 9.14 Titans at Broncos. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
