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Tampa Bay Rays

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 5)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We’ve got day baseball! On this fine Wednesday, we have ourselves a 9-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. As we look at who’s on the mound, we have pretty much every end of the spectrum possible. We have the best pitcher in the game in Jacob deGrom. We have the worst pitcher in the game Patrick Corbin. And we also have one of the top prospects in all of baseball making his major league debut in Grayson Rodriguez. What a Wednesday!

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. Baltimore Orioles

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Jacob deGrom in the aces section of this article. Yes, the Orioles lineup has been on fire. And yes, deGrom looked somewhat human in his first appearance this season vs. the Phillies. Even though he gave up 5 ER in less than 4 innings of work, he still managed to strike out 7 Phillies. The rough outing isn’t something that normally happens with deGrom and it’s something we have to expect was just an anomaly against a really good Phillies.

This Orioles lineup has been really good to start the year, but they’ve yet to face anyone with the skillset of deGrom. Look for deGrom to settle down in his new home and have one of those dominant performances we’ve all come to love from him.

Pablo Lopez vs. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have been a complete mess against right-handed pitching so far this season. Kent Maeda, a pitcher that missed a whole season, was able to strike out 9 Marlins in just 5 innings of work last night. Through the first week of the season, the Marlins have a strikeout rate of over 32% against righties and have hit for almost no power with an ISO of just .124. Their wOBA so far against righties this season is a whopping .276.

There’s also a narrative in this pick. Pablo Lopez spent the first 5 years of his career with this same Marlins team before he was shipped out to Minnesota this offseason for Luis Arraez. Lopez will surely be amped up today facing his former teammates and I expect him to come out on top. At just $7.4k on DK today, we’re getting a pitching that has as much upside as anyone on the hill today.

Dylan Cease vs. San Francisco Giants

Dylan Cease is coming off a dominant performance against the reigning World Series Champions Houston Astros. In the game, Cease struck out 10 hitters in just over 6 innings of work. His stuff was electric as he had a nearly 35% chase rate. Cease is in the upper echelon of pitchers these days and he proved why in that initial outing. If he struck out 10 Astros, there’s no telling what he can do against this Giants lineup that has a 29% strike-out rate vs. righties to start the year.

I didn’t mention him in my top 3, but I also really like Christian Javier today vs. the Tigers. He should be able to dominate that lineup today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Patrick Corbin

You guys know the drill by now. When Patrick Corbin is on the mound, I stack against him. More often than not, it’s a successful strategy. Add in that he’s facing a strong Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and I’m even more interested in stacking against him today. Corbin is just a bad pitcher. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. In his first outing of the year, he gave up 3 barrels in just 3 innings of work. A 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is not a good ratio. The only thing that Corbin had going for him in his 2023 debut was that he gave up a 64% ground ball rate. If that number goes down today, the damage that can be done by the rays is immeasurable.

Core: My core with the Rays starts with Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Yandy Diaz. These 3 guys sit at the top of the lineup and have been extremely productive to start the year. Aroz is my favorite of the bunch as he’s started out the year on fire. He’s in safely in all 5 games and has scored a run in all but the opener. Diaz is coming off a monster game yesterday that saw him go 2-4 with 3 runs scored and 3 RBI. He should continue to have strong games in matchups like the one he has today.

Secondary/Value: Other guys that will have my interest in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri, and Manuel Margot. Basically, if you’re in a Rays jersey today, I’ll have some level of interest in you. All of these guys mentioned though are extremely cheap considering that matchup. They make for great value plays to fill holes in your lineups today.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber is now in his 13^th MLB season. He’s had a remarkable career that has seen him pitch at an ace level for many years. We are now far removed from that though. What we are seeing at this point from Kluber is a pitcher at the tail end of his career. His first outing in the 2023 season could not have gone any worse than it did. In just 3 innings of work, Kluber managed to give up 5 ER and was smacked around for a 55% hard-hit rate. The Pirates’ lineup isn’t at the same level as the Orioles, but they do have some young hungry hitters that can absolutely do some damage against an aging pitcher in Kluber

Core: My Pirates stack will be built around Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds has started out the season strong, with a 1.502 OPS. He’s already up to 4 homers in the young season and 6 RBI. He’s enhancing his trade value and also enhancing the numbers that will be on his potential Pirates extension. I also really like Cruz today. He’s always a risk to get you multiple strikeouts, but he has one of the quickest bats in the game and can absolutely take advantage of any Kluber mistake today.

Secondary/Value: I’ll also have some level of interest in guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Ji Hwan Bae. The numbers for Hayes so far have been pretty brutal. He has just 2 hits in 20 AB. But the positive with him is that he’s putting the ball in play, he’s just been extremely unlucky with a .118 BABIP. At some point those balls will find the hole, could it be today?

Minnesota Twins vs. Jesus Lazardo

The final numbers for Jesus Lazardo were pretty good in his first outing against the Mets. He gave up 0 runs in his nearly 6 innings of work. He also struck out 5 and gave up just a 25% hard-hit rate. There’s a big difference though between the Mets lineup and the Twins lineup. The Mets have struggled vs. lefties over the last couple of years while the Twins have dominated against them. This is a Twins lineup that can really give Lazardo some fits today.

Core: The top 2 guys in this lineup are 2 guys that can really do some damage to lefties. Both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa had great years in 2022 vs. lefties. Buxton, when healthy, is a dynamic player that can do a little bit of everything. He hits for power and can swipe a base or 2. In 2022, he had a .337 ISO vs. lefties and a .376 wOBA. Correa also had a great year vs. lefties in 2022 as he had a wOBA over .400. Both guys can excel in this matchup today.

Secondary/Value: I also like Kyle Farmer, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez in this matchup. All 3 guys can handle lefties well and are reasonably priced today. Farmer is my favorite of the 3.

MLB DFS Summary

We have a little bit of everything today. Aces and gas cans. Rays will be popular today, but for good reason. They are in a great matchup in a great hitting environment today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff. That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations. The good is that it means plenty of offense. The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Detroit Tigers

The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight. In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good. In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him. While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season. Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season. Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing.

This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through. Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs. Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs. They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup. Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight. While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Washington Nationals

Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good. He just doesn’t strike many out. He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%. That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king. That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups.

While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage. This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year. Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game. Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board. The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight.

Nestor Cortes vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick. Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022. He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP. Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year. He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics.

This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year. Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training. Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight. He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals

The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams. Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight. Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.

Core: My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign. Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits. Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits. This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year. I also really like Aroz here. Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3. He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone. These 2 guys should dominate tonight

Secondary/Value: Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri. All of these guys have been productive to start the year. Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner

The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight. In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled. Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83. While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled. He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%. That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with. Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with.

Core: My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them. Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.

Secondary/Value: Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez. Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB. He also has multiple extra-base hits. Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k.

Boston Red Sox vs. Johan Oviedo

The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season. Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs. They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect more runs from them and expect them often. Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo. While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out. I’m going to fully attack him tonight.

Core: My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear. Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers. All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year. Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight. Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight. They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.

Secondary/Value: The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida. Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy. There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense. Expect a high-scoring slate tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Mar. 30)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the first edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We did it, my friends. We made it through the winter and the MLB season is finally upon us. If you haven’t noticed yet, the game is very different this season. With the newly implemented pitch clock, the game is faster. We’ll definitely see some different things happening earlier in the season until all the players are fully used to playing quicker.

That said, it’s still baseball and it’s going to be fun to watch. We have a great 11-game slate today of MLB DFS today. With it being opening day, we have some studs on the mount so we’ll have a lot of low-scoring games. We also have some really bad pitchers throwing, so there should still be some offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. Miami Marlins

Max Scherzer is coming off what was mostly a successful 2022 campaign in his first season with the Mets. While he did spend some time on the IL last season, when he was healthy, he was the Scherzer we have come to love. His K/9 were in line with his career numbers and he still managed to get double-digit victories, a rarity these days with pitchers not going too long in games.

Scherzer gets arguably one of the easier matchups today as he’ll face off against the Miami Marlins. While their lineup is a little improved over last season with the addition of Luis Arraez, they are still a bad lineup. The projected lineup for the Marlins today had just a .110 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. righties last season. Scherzer should be able to navigate this lineup with ease this afternoon.

Shane McClanahan vs. Detroit Tigers

Another pitcher with a solid matchup today will be Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is coming off a very solid sophomore season. In his second season, McClanahan set career highs in both wins and innings pitched. At just $7.7k on DK today, we’ll be getting a pitcher that had a 30% K rate in 2022. I’ll take that every day of the week.

This Tigers lineup is not one that will strike fear in any pitcher’s eyes. It’s pretty weak up and down the lineup. Last season, this team had just a .129 ISO vs. lefties. The Tigers will more than likely throw out 8 righties today. McClanahan had a higher K rate last season vs. righties than he did lefties and that sets him up for a solid day today. You should feel very confident throwing McClanahan out in your lineups today.

Corbin Burnes vs. Chicago Cubs

I expect Corbin Burnes to have a monster season in 2023. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the NL Cy Young award this season. Burnes is coming off a very solid 2022. Like McClanahan, Burnes also set career highs in both Wins and Innings pitched. While the K’s were down a smidge from years past, his K rate was still at a very respectable 30% in 2022. I expect that number to climb this season.

The Cubs lineup will be improved this season with the additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mancini. That said, it’s still a below-average lineup and one we’ll be able to chase K’s against, especially with a righty on the hill. This projected lineup today for the Cubs had a 25% K rate vs. righties in 2022. There’s definitely some upside in throwing out Burnes today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin

When I opened up the schedule today and saw that Patrick Corbin was the opening-day starter for the Nationals 2 things came to mind. The first was that they were going to have an awful rotation this season. Corbin is the epitome of a gas can and while he’ll eventually throw out a gem, more often than not he’s hot garbage.

The second was that the Braves would be extremely popular. They’ll be popular for good reason. Corbin was atrocious in 2022. He pitched to a nearly 5 xFIP and gave up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate. His 58 barrels against far exceed any pitcher on the hill today. When Corbin is on the mound, we attack!

This stack will start with Austin Riley today. He was one of the best in baseball against lefties last season, with a .336 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He should continue to smash against lefties today in a very soft matchup. Next up will be Ronald Acuna. Acuna is now far removed from the knee surgery that saw him start out slowly last season. He matchups up extremely well today vs. Corbin. Corbin mostly throws a sinker to righties. This is a pitch that Acuna has done well against, with a .375 ISO.

I also really like Matt Olson here. Never fear the L/L matchup, especially against Corbin. Olson also has really strong numbers vs. lefty sinkers. Other guys I like here will be Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 was not kind to Eduardo Rodriguez. He had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. His strikeouts were down significantly and his xFIP was one of the highest numbers of his career. To make matters worse for him, he’ll be facing off against a Rays team that just crushes lefties. The projected Rays lineup today had a .171 ISO and a .337 wOBA vs. lefties last season. They have some lefty smashers and we’ll want to take advantage of that today.

My priority with the Rays stack today will be Randy Arozarena. He smashed lefties last year, to the tune of a .240 ISO and a .382 wOBA. Fresh off his WBC stint, he’s becoming a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be in all of my lineups today. Next up will be Yandy Diaz. While he doesn’t hit for much power vs. lefties, he does have a very high wOBA of .379. He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup today.

My value plays in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri. Of the bunch, Paredes is my favorite as he showed a lot of pop at times last season. Franco, Margot, and Ramirez are also very much in play today.

Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson

The Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch this season. They are much improved up and down the lineup. The rotation however is still one that is awful and one we’ll be able to attack often. On most teams, Kyle Gibson would be a back-of-the-rotation guy. For the Orioles, he’s being asked to be the ace of the staff. That says a lot about the Orioles’ pitching staff. With Gibson, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. His numbers against both sides of the plate are pretty similar.

Any Red Sox stack needs to start with their star player, Rafael Devers. Devers had a very solid year vs. righties in 2022 and he made us some money with our MLB DFS lineups. He had a .252 ISO and a wOBA that was pushing .400. He’s extremely pricey today at nearly $6k, but he should do extremely well in this matchup vs. Gibson. Next up will be a newcomer to the states, Masataka Yoshida.

Yoshida was a star in Japan and his skillset should transfer pretty nicely to the states. He’ll be hitting in the middle of this lineup today and is fairly priced at $4.4k. Other guys I really like here today will be Trison Casas at just $2.9k on DK, Reese McGuire at just $2.2k, and Alex Verdugo. The Red Sox are set up today to put up a big number on opening day. Vegas likes them a lot, and so do I!

MLB DFS Summary

We waited many months for this day and it’s going to be a great one. I plan on loading up on both Rays and Braves with my bats. My pitching will be focused on Mad Max and Shane Mac. This will hopefully be a recipe for success today!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 9)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

The sites have really split up today’s slates quite a bit! We’re going to focus on the early slate starting at 1pm EST and then the main starting at 7pm EST. We finally have some beautiful weather everywhere and shouldn’t need to worry about games being postponed or delayed.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Early

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Lyles

Stacking the Rays yesterday wasn’t overly successful. I’m going right back to the well because they face off today against Jordan Lyles. If you followed my Aces and Bases last year, you know that Jordan Lyles was a favorite target of mine. He’s an MLB DFS gold mine! On the year last year, Lyles finished with a 5.03 xFIP and a hard-hit rate pushing 47%. Batters had 51 barrels and 223 hard-hit balls against him. Those are poor numbers and ones we want to attack. He also gave up a career-high 38 homers.

This stack today starts with Brandon Lowe. Last year against righties, Lowe had a .305 ISO and .389 wOBA. He had a phenomenal year and with a great matchup today should pick back up where he left off. Another strong piece to this stack will be Ji-Man Choi. He too had great numbers vs. righties last year, with a .254 ISO and .376 wOBA against them.

My final priority to my core here will be Kevin Kiermaier. All three of these guys will face a barrage of low 90’s fastballs as Lyles throws it close to 50% of the time to lefties. The three of them all of ISO’s over .200 to this pitch type from righties. You can absolutely throw in some righties to this stack, but my core will be these 3.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Mitch Keller

The Cardinals exploded for 9 runs on opening day and should have every chance to get right back to that number today. While Keller made some approvements over the offseason, he’s still someone that has not had much success at the major league level. Last year was a big struggle for Keller, as the pitched to a 4.90 xFIP and had an ERA over 6. While the difference in those numbers shows he had some bad luck, having an xFIP that close to 5 still isn’t good. Keller was equally as bad to both sides of the plate last season so we shouldn’t need to worry too much about splits.

The Cardinals stack really should start with guys like Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Nolan Arenado. O’Neill is probably my favorite of the bunch as he crushed right-handed pitching last year. Last year he had a .265 ISO and .372 wOBA vs. them. He sits sandwiched between Goldy and Arenado and should have a monster year.

If you want to go cheap with this stack, you won’t miss a beat with Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong. Both of them are reasonably priced today and get you a piece of a team that should put up a healthy amount of runs today.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Justin Steele

This was the matchup they were supposed to get yesterday, but thanks to some snow the game was PPD. The hitting environment won’t be great today for the Brewers, but the matchup will be. Justin Steele made his big league debut last year, and although it wasn’t awful it wasn’t anything special. On the year he had an xFIP north of 4.2 and a HR/9 close to 1.9.

That HR/9 is what I’m looking at. We chase long balls in DFS and we can try to chase that with Steele. Steele has very clear splits. Lefties had a meager .098 ISO against him last year, but righties had a .230. We’re going to chase him hard with righties.

I’m going to go with some cheap guys in this stack. The top 2 stacks are expensive and we need to find ways to be able to afford them. I’m not telling you to not play guys like Renfroe or Adames or even McCutchen. They are all in smash spots today. Especially McCutchen who started off the year well and had a ton of success against lefties last year, with a .342 ISO. We just don’t have unlimited funds to play with.

If you can afford them, absolutely play them. A cheap way to get this stack in is with Mike Brosseau. He had a .202 ISO vs. lefties last year and will save you some cash. Another way to get there is with Tyrone Taylor. Taylor also had some success vs. lefties last year as he had an ISO close to .200. Both of those guys will open up some cash for you to be able to afford the big bats.

MLB DFS Early Slate Summary

Today’s early slate has some really attackable pitchers. I’m always an advocate of stacking against Jordan Lyles and today will be no different.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Atlanta Braves vs. Vladimir Gutierrez

Gutierrez will probably turn into a very good pitcher one day, he’s just not there yet. And until he’s there, he’s someone we should always consider stacking against. In his first year in the majors, Gutierrez really struggled as he pitched to an xFIP of 5.11. Once you get over that 5 for a season, it really indicates a struggle.

One of the things he really struggled with was the long ball. Gutierrez gave up 20 homers last season in just 114 innings of work. With Gutierrez, we have some pretty clear splits. Lefties torched him last year with a .247 ISO and a 46% hard-hit rate.

The lefties I want to focus on with the Braves tonight are newcomer Matt Olson and Eddie Rosario. Both guys had ISO’s at or above .200 last year vs. righties. One of the top secondary pitches that Gutierrez will throw to them tonight will be a curveball. If Gutierrez hangs one, both guys should be able to put one over the right-field wall. Other guys I’d want here are Albies and also Duvall. Duvall has really found a home here in Atlanta and it’s been fun to watch. He’s always a risk to strike out, but he provides enough reward with his power to overcome that risk.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Wright

I wish the Reds had a better lineup, but I still like them tonight. One of the Braves’ weaknesses this year is Kyle Wright. That sounds harsh but true. Wright has not had much success in his few trips to the majors. In 14 starts at the big league level, Wright has a 6.56 ERA to go with a 5.73 xFIP. He hasn’t been good and we’ll want to attack him when we can. While he’s been pretty bad to both sides of the plate, lefties have a 54% flyball rate against him so if we’re going to chase homers, we’ll do it with lefties.

I’ll start this stack with TikTok star Joey Votto. Votto has a long track record of success vs. righties and last year was no different. He had a .366 ISO vs. them last year and a .430 wOBA. Votto will see a healthy amount of sinkers today and that’s a pitch he enjoys smashing. Over the last few years, Votto has a .292 ISO against them from righties and a .485 wOBA. Anything can happen, but Votto is set up to have a nice night.

I’m going to surround him with Jonathan India and Tyler Naquin tonight. I also wouldn’t talk you out of playing Mike Moustakas tonight. Like Votto, he crushes sinkers. This is a good spot for him.

San Diego Padres vs. Zach Davies

Davies had arguably the worst year of his career last season. The move to Chicago was not a good one for him. His HR/9 was the highest of his career and his GB% was also close to the lowest of his career. He also struggled mightily with his command as his BB% reached double digits for the first time since his rookie year in 2015.

We’re going to wait to see if Arizona is any different for him, but until he shows something different, I’ll stack against him in DFS. Davies is pretty splits-neutral, although lefties have a higher flyball rate. That said, righties hit him much harder.

Davies predominantly throws a sinker. This is a pitch that a handful of Padres have had success against. I’ll start this stack with leadoff hitter Trent Grisham. Grisham has had success against sinkers, with a .415 wOBA and .246 ISO against it. He’ll set the table today for a team that should put up some runs against a struggling pitcher.

The rest of the guys I’d look to in this stack tonight are Croneworth, Voit, and Profar. All three are cheap to reasonably priced and will help you get to the expensive stacks tonight.

MLB DFS Late Slate Summary

You’ll notice I left off the Coors game in my stacks section. You’ll rarely see me write up the Coors games unless there is a glaring necessity to play them. Any game in Coors has the potential to be high-scoring. I just don’t see it tonight, especially from the Dodgers’ side as they get German Marquez. Marquez is an elite pitcher. He can shut down any lineup, in any park. Can the Dodgers blow him out today? yes, they definitely can. And if they do, I’ll be ok fading them.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 10/03

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a full 15 game final slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play. Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward.

When Manfred designed up having a second Wild Card spot what is occurring in the American League is probably what he had in mind. There is a logjam in the AL for both Wild Cards. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners are all battling for the 2 spots and are within a game of each other. If the Red Sox and Yankees both lose today and the Blue Jays and Mariners both win they are in. The Red Sox and Yankees are tied and cling to a 1 game lead over both the Mariners and Blue Jays. They win and they are in.

If we head out west today, the Giants and Dodgers are still battling for the NL West crown. We have the two teams with the most wins in the league. The winner of the NL West gets a few days off while the loser has to take on the red hot Cardinals in the Wild Card game. They will both be bringing it full force today.

This is shaping up to be the best final Sunday of baseball we’ve had in years.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Logan Webb ($8.7k) vs. San Francisco Giants – After a horrendous start vs. the Padres, Webb returned to form against the Dbacks with a 5 inning 6K effort. I’m not as worried with the going back to the well again against the Padres because it wasn’t really the Padres that did him in last time out. His command was off and never looked comfortable.

The Giants need to Webb to shine today to get them the W. The Padres over the last week have been very underwhelming. They have a 24% K rate and have hit for very limited power. I’m locking in Webb today and not looking back.

Dylan Cease ($9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I don’t expect Cease to throw more than 90 pitches today so we probably only get him for 5 to 6 innings. In his last outing vs. the Indians he went 5 innings and struck out 9 before leaving with an injury. No pitcher today has the K upside as Cease, even if he has an abbreviated outing.

At only $9k I’m ok stomaching a shorter than normal outing. Cease’s main strike out pitch is his slider and if it’s on today, he’s going to have a solid game. Up and down the Tigers lineup they have whiff rates exceeding 30%. Look for Cease to have a solid game today and end up as one of the highest scoring pitchers. The only thing that may stop him today is the weather. So keep an eye on the forecast.

Reiver Sanmartin ($7.1k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Sanmartin looked pretty decent in his first outing this year. He was able to strike out 5 Pirates through 5.2 innings. While the Pirates have been a pretty low strike out team this year, they’ve been striking out more of late. Over the last week they’ve been striking out nearly 25% of the time.

Sanmartin is getting the same match up against the Pirates but he should still be able to breeze through them again. He mostly throws a slider to lefties and should face 5 of them today. Those guys all have whiff rates over 35% against sliders. I really like his chances of ending the season on a strong note.

Outside of Webb, the pitchers that are in the playoff scenario spots all look like they have poor match ups. Sale is facing a young stingy team in the Nationals that are all out to make a name for themselves. There’s no better spot for them to do it in than this. Ryu is not in good form and I can see the Orioles exploding on him. Buehler is facing a Brewers team that will throw out a bunch of lefties. That’s his weakness. Tyler Anderson of the Mariners is very inconsistent and I have no faith in him.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bruce Zimmermann – Blue Jays lose today and they are out. If we look at Zimmermann’s outing vs. the Red Sox this week we’ll see a pitcher that gave up 2 hits in 4 innings of work while only allowing 1 runner to score. Box scores don’t tell the whole story. He also gave up a 58% fly ball rate, an 88% contact rate, and didn’t give up any soft contact. He’s going to get hit today and he’s going to hit very hard.

We have 3 guys in the middle of the lineup today that are just crushing lefties right now. Bichette ($3.9k), Guerrero ($4k), and Hernandez ($3.4k) all have ISO’s against lefties over .364 since early September. We’re not talking about a small sample size. While we normally talk about picking our pitchers first, I’m building the rest of my lineup today around them.

The other guy I’ll look to add in here is Santiago Espinal ($2.1k). He’s cheap and will help us stomach paying the salaries of the Blue Jays core. He’s also red hot over the last week with a .955 OPS and 8 hard hits in just 20 at bats.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jameson Taillon – On the final day of the season, this is my ode to Brian. I fully expect the Rays to play their regulars today. If they don’t, their regulars will have had 4 days off between games and that’s just asking for too much rust heading into the playoffs. I also expect them to try their hardest to get he Yankees to have to play even more baseball.

Taillon is a good pitcher, but if he has a weakness it’s lefties. They have a 54% fly ball rate vs. his him this year and a near .200 ISO. His walk rate also jumps from just 4% to righties to 12% against lefties. The Rays are normally pretty under owned, but I think we see that get to a whole new level today.

After a 3 homer day yesterday Lowe ($3.6k) sits just one away from 40. He gets it with a lead off homer today. I’ll also want Meadows ($3.1k) and Choi ($2.4k) here. They have ISO’s at .200 or better vs. righties over the last month. The Rays were a big staple of the WDS family this year and there’s no reason to change it on the final day of the year.

Seattle Mariners vs. Reid Detmers – Mariners get one of the best match ups of the teams playing for their playoff lives. Detmers hasn’t pitched much this year in the majors due to not being good and also sitting out a month with Covid. On the year he has a 6.48 xFIP and has given up a 46% fly ball rate. He’s been pretty bad against both sides of the plate so I’m going to go with Mariners that hit lefties the best.

Hello Mr. Haniger ($3.9k) and your .301 ISO against lefties over the last month. I also really like Torrens ($2.3k) here who sports a .242 ISO over the last 30 days vs. lefties. I wouldnt’s shy away from lefties like Kelenic ($3.2k) and Seager ($3.2k). Detmers shouldn’t last long in this game and righties from the bullpen will eventually pitch. Look for the Mariners to squeak into an extra playoff game tomorrow.

If you want to play some Orioles today, I wouldn’t blame you. Ryu is attackable and hasn’t been in the best form in his last couple of outings. The Orioles have also had some success vs. him this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

What a final day of the season we have in store today. While the contests are smaller, it should be a fun day. We have 6 games today that involve teams with playoff implications. That’s nearly half the games today. Sit back, play some DFS, and enjoy the last day of the regular season.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Friday – 09/10

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 13 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Not sure what else there is to say about Robbie Ray at this point. He continues to go out and mow down batters. While his price is steep he’s someone that has unmatched strike out ability on this slate.

Over the last month he has a 40% k rate. He has 4 straight games with double digit strike outs. W/ a match up against an inconsistent Orioles team there’s no reason to think he can be slowed down. The Orioles haven’t been as good against lefties recently and have a 24% K rate over the last 30 days vs. them. I’m locking in Ray tonight in my lineup and not looking back.

Michael Wacha ($8.5k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I’m not as in love with this pick as I am with Ray, but Wacha has been pretty good over the last month. He has 3.18 xFIP and his K rate is approaching 30%. Of all the pitchers on the slate tonight there are only 2 others that have been striking out more batters over the past month than Wacha.

Wacha gets a decent match up too tonight as the Tigers offense hasn’t been doing much over the past week. They have a 26% K rate with limited barrels. At the end of the night tonight Wacha will be one of the higher scoring pitchers.

Tyler Mahle ($9.9k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – After Ray, there really isn’t much to love tonight. The majority of the pitchers have tough match ups but I think we can get some value with Mahle tonight. We’ve seen at times the Cardinals lineup go cold.

They’re in one of those stretches right now as they have a 27% K rate over the past week and haven’t done much in the power dept. They have 6 barrels over the past week and only 38 hard hit balls. League average over the past week is 54 hard hit balls so they are underperforming compared to the rest of the league.

In Mahle we’re getting a pitcher that has a 27% K rate over the past month and has done a nice job in limiting the hard hits w/ just a 24% hard hit rate. The Cardinals could wake up at any point, but I like Mahle’s chances of having a solid game tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matthew Boyd – Boyd hasn’t pitched much over the past month but from his two outings we can decipher that he’s not sharp. In both outings he last only 4 innings. In those 8 innings he’s managed to give up 3 homers. With the Rays current lineup we know that we can chase homers against Boyd.

Since coming off the IL it’s been righties that have been giving him the most trouble. In 35 PA righties have a .345 ISO against him. I’m going to load up on Rays righties tonight. The first two that I’m targeting are Mike Zunino ($3.4k) and Manual Margot ($2.3k). Let’s start with Zunino who is having just an amazing year. Over the past 30 days he has an unreal .773 ISO against lefties. I’ll let Brian do the home run calls, but Zunino has a great chance to have a solid night.

Other Rays I’m interested in are Nelson Cruz ($4k) and Jordan Luplow ($2.2k). Cruz is another guy that is absolutely crushing lefties right now with a .321 ISO over the last month. Look for the Rays to have another one of those monster nights tonight.

Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch – Lynch is going to be a good pitcher one day. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle for him so far at the Major League level. Over the last 30 days it’s been an even bigger struggle as his xFIP and SIERA are both sitting in the mid 5’s. Lynch has very clear splits that we can take advantage of. He’s dominant against lefties. But righties. Righties are have a .405 wOBA against him over the last month.

He gives up way more hard contact and fly balls to righties. The middle of the Twins lineup is where I want to sit tonight and they are all very affordable. Refsnyder ($2.2k), Donaldson ($3.1k), Sano ($3.2k), and Rooker ($2.4k) are all extremely cheap given the match up. On a night where we want to get Ray and then the Rays, having a lineup like the Twins will help us afford what we want.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Eli Morgan – Morgan is another pitcher I want to pick on. He’s part of the young crop of pitchers that the Indians are developing and he’ll be solid one day. Right now, he’s just giving up way too many mistakes.

Over the last month he has a fly ball rate pushing 50%. In just 23 innings of work he’s managed to give up 8 barrels. If Morgan had a higher K rate I’d be willing to overlook the barrels but with a K rate of around 23% over the last month he’s just getting into too much trouble. Morgan also has some pretty clear splits.

Lefties have a hit distance more than 70 feet farther than righties do against him. With the Brewers I’m going to live at the back of the lineup tonight. Narvaez ($2.4k), Vogelbach ($2.3k) , and Tellez ($2.3k) are all underpriced for the match up vs. Morgan tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

I’ve listed 3 pitchers tonight but that’s only because my bosses require me to. I’m sticking w/ Ray tonight as he just has so much upside. With the stacks I laid out you should have no issue fitting in the Rays plus Ray plus some decent Twins.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 09/05

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – What a year that Robbie Ray has had! He made some pitch selection changes coming into the year and they have really paid off in a Cy Young level season. Over the last month Ray has been dominant. He has a 37.5% K rate which is way above the field.

Ray has also been really doing a great job of limiting the hard contact with just a 25.7% hard hit rate over the last 30 days. Ray sets up extremely well w/ the A’s. His main strike out pitch is his slider and it’s a pitch that the A’s can struggle with as they have a handful of batters that have whiff rates over 30%.

If he can neutralize Marte today he should have one of his 50 FD point outings. He’s my SP1.

Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Kansas City Royals – Cease put together a solid August. He had a 3.94 xFIP and an elite 33% K rate, trailing only Ray of all the starters going today. The match up vs. the Royals isn’t the greatest as they tend to be stingy, but if I’m going to attack the Royals it will almost always be with a righty.

Cease matches up pretty well w/ the Royals as his main pitch to strike batters out his slider. He has a 40% K rate with it this year and uses it about 30% of the time. Outside of Perez (my vote is to just intentionally walk him all day) the Royals lineup really struggles with sliders.

You have guys like Dozier and O’hearn who have whiff rates near 50%. If Cease’s slider is on today, sky’s the limit.

Luis Castillo ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Of all aces going today, Castillo probably gets the softest of the match ups. Tigers over the last 30 days have a 24% K rate vs. righties.

While Mahle didn’t have the greatest game against them last night he did strike out 8 Tigers. I see no reason why Castillo can’t match that strike out number and I have more confidence in him limited the damage done.

Over the past 30 days he’s been keeping batters in check w/ just a 26% hard hit rate and just 4 barrels in nearly 30 innings of work. Castillo has just 1 start under 30 FD points in the last 3 months. Look for him to continue that trend w/ a floor of 30 points today.

I love Burnes as a pitcher and he should do well today. He’s just overpriced in my opinion as he’s almost $2k more on FD than he is on DK.

Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this year and has only eclipsed 40 FD points once and that was back in April when he was striking out batters more consistently. I’m not saying don’t play him, I just think he’s closer to his floor today than he is his ceiling.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Griffin Jax – I’m going to channel my inner Brian and use the Rays as my top stack tonight. They get a match up in a pitcher that has been struggling to limit hard contact.

Over the past 30 days Jax has a near 48% hard hit rate with a 46% fly ball rate. Add those 2 numbers together and you have a pitcher in Jax that has given up 8 homers and 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.

Jax has been pretty awful to both sides of the plate as righties have a .317 ISO against him and lefties a .400 over the past month. If we look at this Rays lineup they just dominate righties.

Lowe ($3.4k) and Kiermaier ($2.2k) are my favorites here. Lowe has a .338 ISO against righties over the past month and Kiermaier has .279. Both guys are my core.

The other guys I’ll look to sprinkle in from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($3.4k) and Wander Franco ($4.2k). The Rays are hot again w/ the bats and a pitcher like Jax stands no chance at slowing them down.

New York Mets vs. Josiah Gray – Don’t look now but the Mets’ bats have finally woken up after sleeping through most of August. Look, Gray has a ton of talent. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game as he was part of the Turner/Scherzer deal.

That said, he’s still someone that is attackable with how he has been pitching of late. Over his last 27 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. When you give up a 55% fly ball rate you’re bound to see some balls leave the park.

The first bat I’m going to build my core around will be Jonathan Villar ($2.8k) as he’s been red hot over the last week. He has a 1.359 OPS and .565 wOBA. The next guy is Michael Conforto ($2.7k).

Conforto is as streaky of a hitter as there is in the game. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and when he’s locked in, you play him. He has a 53% hard hit rate over the past week. Enjoy the ride while it lasts with him.

Another disappointing Met that is starting to see the ball well again is Francisco Lindor ($3.3k). Lindor has a 53% hard hit rate and 47% fly ball rate over the past week. With the Mets finally hitting like they were supposed to they should get to Gray early today and then get the Nats bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cole Irvin – Irvin has not been good over the past 30 days. Frankly, he’s been awful. Over the last month he has a 6.31 xFIP. He’s giving up more walks per 9 than he has strike outs.

With that in mind, the Blue Jays today are a team that you need to either go all in on, or fade today. He’s going to put a ton of batters on as he has a 1.71 WHIP since the beginning of August. With the Blue Jays I want to focus on the bats that have been the hottest.

Lourdes Gurriel ($3.3k), Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k), and Bo Bichette ($4k) all have an OPS over 1.100 over the past week. They are hot and if you play the Blue Jays today they should be in your lineup.

My hope is that Breyvic Valera ($2k) makes the lineup today. Over his last 3 games he’s been extremely productive and is essentially a free square if he plays. Montoyo, please play Valera!

While these 3 are may favorite stacks today, there’s a ton of offense to go around. The White Sox vs. Singer should put up a big number as he just puts so many batters on base. Also have to love the Yankees vs. Keegan Akin.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have some really solid pitchers on the mound today. I will more than likely lock in Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray and then load up on the value plays from the Mets. Rays are extremely affordable on FD today and in a smash spot. This Sunday Funday has a great slate of games and we should see a ton of offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Picks and Pivots for Saturday – 08/28

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a 6 game afternoon slate and a 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on DraftKings to navigate through.

Hey all, it’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian the next couple of days. My goal today will be to walk you through my thought on process on tonight’s slate and find the best path to victory.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

Afternoon Slate Breakdown

Today’s afternoon slate leaves us without any real aces. The most expensive pitcher is Montas at $9.3k and I just don’t want to use any pitcher against the Yankees right now.

My pool of pitchers on the afternoon slate will consist ofAlex Manoah ($8.7k) vs. Detroit Tigers, Vladimir Gutierrez ($8.5k) vs. Miami Marlins, and Sandy Alcantara ($7.7k) vs. Cincinnati Reds. My lean right now is to go with Gutierrez and Alcantara.

Both guys are rolling and get soft match ups. The Marlins aren’t hitting for much power and striking out nearly 25% of the time against righties over the past month. It sets up for Gutierrez to continue his string of solid outings.

On the other side of this game we have Alcantara who’s also rolling right along with 3 consecutive gems. The Reds have a lot of power to the lineup but they also strike out a ton. Over the past week they’ve struck out more than 31% of the time. Look for a pitcher’s duel here.

The first place I’m going to look to for offense on the afternoon slate will be Oakland with theAthletics vs. Nestor Cortes. Cortes has not been good over the last month with a 5.35 xFIP. My main focus here is going to be the A’s righties.

Righties have a 52% fly ball rate against Cortes over the last 30 days and I’ll want to exploit that. My building block here will be Chapman ($4.9k) who has been crushing lefties of late with .429 ISO over the last month. If Yan Gomes ($3.8k) cracks the lineup he’s set up well for a great too as he’s had a lot of success against lefties over the course of his career.

I say this time and time again, don’t leave off the lefty bats in match ups like this. Olson ($5.4k) is really solid vs. lefties and we could potentially get him under owned.

One of my favorite targets for offense returns tonight with Jose Urena coming off the DL. He is a career GB pitcher who has forgotten how to throw ground balls. The two Blue Jays I’m most interested in are Gurriel ($4k) and Semien ($4.9k).

Both guys have been doing well against righties in August with ISO’s over .240 for both of them. Yes, the Blue Jays are struggling right now. Urena is the perfect pitcher to break them out of their slumps.

I’ll also make sure to sprinkle in some Royals against Anderson. Perez ($5.9k) is expensive but he’s extremely hot right now. We paid down for pitchers so we have some room for salary. No Royals stack against lefties would be complete without Merrifield ($5.2k).

Main Slate

Pitching tonight has to start with Lance Lynn ($9.6k) vs. Chicago Cubs. His price tonight is way too low for the match up. He’s facing a team that’s striking out more than 30% of the time over the last week.

Pitchers against the Cubs have been a thing since the trade deadline. Lynn will be chalky tonight but with his price and match up I just don’t think fading this chalk will be worth it.

The guy I plan on pairing with Lynn isn’t a sexy pick, but it’s a pick that’s been pretty consistent. Stroman ($8.9k) has been the lone reliable arm for the Mets all season.

Over the past month he’s really taken it up a notch with a 27.8% K rate and a 3.56 xFIP. The Nats have been playing better ball of late but they struck out 17 times last night. They’re coming back down to earth and with Stroman on the hill tonight that descent will continue.

The only other guy tonight I’d consider is Wainwright ($9.2k). He has shown some serious upside over the last month with multiple games over 38 DK points, with one of those against this same Pirates team. Pairing either Wainwright or Stroman with Lynn tonight will be the way my lineup will work tonight.

While the Rays for the most disappointed last night, Brian would absolutely have me go right back to the well tonight. W/ John Means on the mound we have another great opportunity for offense.

Means has been a different pitcher since he came back from injury. His biggest obstacle has been the long ball. Since coming off the IL he’s given up 10 in just 7 starts. We want to attack Means with Rays righties as they rightes have a .326 ISO against him over the past month.

There are 3 guys here I’m laser focused on. It starts with Zunino ($4.6k) who has been absolutely crushing lefties over the last month. He has an insane .722 is over that period.

Arozarena ($4.2k) and Cruz ($5k) are my other targets here. Both guys are also great against lefties with their respective .500 and .389 wOBAs over the last month.

For the rest of my lineup, I’m going w/ a full game stack of the Bal/TB game. Patino has really struggled over the past month. He has a 5.94 xFIP and has given up 5 bombs in the last 26 innings.

We want to attack Patino w/ lefties as his fly ball rate sky rockets to 54%. They also have a .286 ISO against him in the last month. The Orioles have some cheap lefties that are going to enable us to play the expensive Rays.

Stewart ($2.1k) and Santander ($3.2k) are both extremely cheap and have been extremely productive vs. righties. Over the last 30 days Santander has a .396 ISO and Stewart has a .429 ISO. It’s still going to be hot and humid in Baltimore and I’d expect a high scoring game tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Pitching on both slates seem pretty straight forward with a Gutierrez/Alcantara pairing in the afternoon and then Lynn and a Stroman/Wainwright pairing. With bats I’m going to anchor my early stack w/ the A’s and then the late night hammer w/ the Rays.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Picks and Pivots for Friday – 08/27

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on DraftKings to navigate through.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

Main Slate Breakdown

With it being Friday we’re back to having a full slate of games with all 30 teams playing tonight. With that brings us a slew of options on both the hill and the at the plate.

The make up of today’s slate so far has me thinking that the good ole Double Aces strategy is very much in play. In what has become a rarity these days we actually have decent amount of aces to pick from

Pitching Picks

With pitching tonight I’m going to live in the expensive tier. There’s going to be enough value with bats (I’ll get to that in the stacks portion) on this slate that I just don’t see any reason to live in the “let’s get fancy with pitching tonight” arena . My pool of pitchers tonight will consist of Gerrit Cole ($10.5k), Aaron Nola ($10.2k), and Joe Musgrove ($9.6k).

Let’s start with Gerrit Cole. After having to relearn how to pitch without the sticky stuff he’s really come on strong over the past month. We have 30 pitchers on the mound and Cole far and away has the highest K rate over the last month at almost 36%.

In 5 of his last 6 outings he has 12, 11, 8, 10, and 9 strike outs. Over that period he’s faced Houston, Boston and Tampa. So some pretty solid lineups. One of Cole’s top pitches is his slider and if we look at the Oakland lineup he really has a chance to neutralize their core.

Olson and Chapman both have whiff rates over 30% to the pitch and Marte really isn’t too far behind.

My next pitcher will take us to Los Angeles with Musgrove. Is Musgrove someone that gives up heartburn every time he’s on the mound? Yes, yes he does. That said, he has a high ceiling for someone under $10k.

The Angels are coming off back to back losses to a team that had previously lost 19 in a row. They are also traveling cross country after being on the road for almost 2 weeks.

Outside of Ohtani this is a pretty weak lineup. If we take him out of this mix this is a lineup that has a .104 ISO against righties over the past month and a near 25% K rate. I really like this spot for Musgrove tonight. I will add though that if Musgrove becomes chalk I will probably fade. No one likes a chalky Musgrove.

The last spot I’m looking at in the ace tier tonight is Aaron Nola against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over the last month Nola has some really impressive numbers with a 30% K rate and a 30% CSW. Both numbers put him in elite category.

The Diamondbacks are not an imposing lineup. There’s a reason they are 40 games under .500. If Nola’s ownership projections come in low tonight I’ll be sure to pair him with either Cole or Musgrove.

Top Bats and Stacks

When Brian said he needed me to step in for PnP today I took a peak at the match ups. I truly think Brian took off today because he just could not handle what he saw. Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matt Harvey, in Camden Yards.

I’m thankful this match up happened on a full slate vs. just a 6 game slate because we typically see ownership more spread out on a full slate. I don’t think we’ll have to worry about ownership on a night like this.

Harvey at this point in his career is someone that we want to target any time he’s on the hill. He had a pretty nice stretch after the AS break but all metrics said it was luck more than talent. Over the past month it’s been the lefties that have really been Harvey’s Achilles heel.

They have a .271 ISO and a 49% fly ball rate against him. What do the Rays have? A ton of lefties. The main 3 pitches that Harvey will throw tonight are his 4 seamer, sinker, and slider. His fastball has really been what’s been getting him lit up. Batters have a .561 slugging % against hit and a 50% hard hit rate.

The guy that I’m most excited about with the Rays tonight is Brandon Lowe ($5.4k). To start he has absolutely crushed fastballs this year, with a .698 slugging %. He’s also crushing righties over the past month with a .406 ISO. Your leadoff hitter sets the tone and the Rays have a guy that will absolutely set the tone tonight.

Other guys I’m interested in here are Franco ($5.3k), Meadows ($4.7k), and Arozarena ($4.5k). I’ll also make sure to use either Phillips ($2.5k) or Kiermaier ($2.6k).

So we have double aces and expensive Rays, how are we going to afford them? Let’s go to Citi Field with Rich Hill on the mound vs. the Washington Nationals. The Mets are a mess right now and Dick Mountain on the mound isn’t going to help.

He’s been a homer giving up machine over the past month with 5 in his last 21 innings of work. Righties have been torching him with a .364 ISO.

I’m looking at the Nats tonight because they have what we need. Cheap righties. The Nationals have 5 righties tonight under $3k. My main focus will be Barrera ($2.3k), Thomas ($2.2k), and Kieboom ($2.3k). These 3 guys all fit in spots where we have gaps with the Rays. They are also happen to be doing really well against lefties.

Over the last 30 days Barrera has a .463 wOBA, Thomas has a .746 wOBA, and Kieboom has a .327 wOBA. Cheap productive righties against a southpaw getting handled by righties is a great recipe and one that we’ll look to really take advantage of tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

The Nationals tonight are really going help us tonight get double aces and the Rays. When I looked at this slate the first thing I did was ask myself, “what would Brian do?”. This is it. At least I hope it is.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, August 02

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed vacation. Today’s slate will leave a lot to desired from a pitching standpoint. The most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate is Tylor Megill. Nothing against Megill as he’s been quite good since his call up, but he shouldn’t be the most expensive pitcher on a slate (at least yet).

There are really only 3 pitchers tonight that will have my interest. Tylor Megill ($9.6k), Michael Wacha ($8.4k), and Josiah Gray ($7.6k). As the day goes on I will let ownership dictate who I use. These 3 pitchers provide 2 things I’m looking for on a slate like this. Upside and safety.

First let’s look at Megill. He’s facing off against a very watered down lineup that won’t hit for much power. While the Marlins do get Chisholm back, he’s someone that’s striking out more than 29% of the time to righties this year. Megill’s price is a little more than I’d like to pay for him, but the match up today definitely gives him room for upside. The next two guys are the wild cards for me.

How do you get the Nationals to send you 2 of their best players? You send them one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Josiah Gray. Gray has looked pretty good so far in the Majors with 13 K’s through 8 IP. That’s nearly 15 K/9. He’s someone that’s going to give us the most K potential of any arm on the slate as long as he can limit the walks.

The last guy I’m interested in is Wacha. Over the last 30 days Wacha has a 27% K rate and gets a great match up against a Mariners team that couldn’t put up much of a fight against the worst pitcher in baseball, Folty. If Wacha comes in at chalk (and it’s certainly possible on a slate like this) I’ll side with Gray and Megill.

The main area of offense for me tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers. We get to attack newly acquired Bryce Wilson. While Wilson isn’t very good to either side of the plate, we really want to attack him with batters from the left side of the plate. His ISO jumps to .254 from just .130 and his K rate is just 11%.

Newly acquired Eduardo Escobar ($5.4K) is my favorite of the bunch as he has the most power with an ISO of .231 against righties this season. The other keys here will be Kolten Wong ($4.4k) at the top and Omar Narvaez ($4.5k).

The one guy in this lineup that will open us up for a ton of salary relief is Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2.4k). Look, this season has been brutal for Bradley as he’s batting just .175 with an OPS of .540. Some of it has been bad luck though as he an extremely low BABIP of .234. By far the lowest of his career.

The team that I’m looking at tonight to pair with the Brewers is a Brian special, the Tampa Bay Rays. They get to take on Chris Flexen. Flexen has flashed some upside this season, but the match up for him tonight is going to be tough and his performance recently has been trending down. His last outing was by far his worst of the year, giving up 7 ER vs. the Houston Astros.

The two building blocks I’ll use from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($4.5k) and Ji-Man Choi ($4.4k). Both guys have absolutely crushed right handed hitting this year with ISO’s of .339 and .284 respectively. The two of them are extremely underpriced considering the match up and their upside.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This is going to be a tricky, but fun slate. We’ve had some questionable pitching slates over the past month but this one may take the cake. We are now a few days separated from the trading deadline and lineups are getting close to set with the new guys. Tonight I’ll be mixing and matching the Brewers with Rays as both teams line up great with each other.

I don’t think I’ll stray too far from my core of Megill, Wacha, and Gray. Another area to look at tonight will be the Baltimore Orioles. Andrew Heaney is making his Yankees debut and if he becomes chalky, I’ll be sure to sprinkle in some O’s (Mancini being the main target). O’s have been very good vs. lefties this year and can certainly do some damage vs. Heaney.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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