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StixPicks

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 7

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We absolutely smashed NFL DFS GPP lineups last week and should do so again in Week 7. Thank you all again for the kind words on the huge week last week! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

*Obviously, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are the popular QBs on this slate. Get exposure to them and feel free to use them in your main NFL DFS GPP lineups if that’s what you prefer. Here are some other QBs that I have a lot of interest in…

Josh Allen – Usually, I would be heavily against using a quarterback as double-digit favorite, but the Bills are going to come out playing fast and step on the throat early in this game. I’m always interested in a ~5% owned Josh Allen.

John Brown is out, so simply stack him with Stefon Diggs.
Matt Stafford – I simply have no idea how Stafford’s ownership projections are so low (less than 5%). This is the absolute nuts matchup for opposing quarterbacks and this game offers no defense whatsoever. Whatever defense their is in Atlanta is geared towards stopping the run. It’s going to shoot out and you’ll want a piece of it.

Potential Stack(s):
Golladay/Jones
Golladay/Hockenson
Golladay/Swift

Potential Game Stack(s):
Golladay/M. Jones /Julio/Ridley
Golladay/M. Jones /Julio/Gurley
Golladay/Hockenson/Julio/Ridley
ETC… (so many combinations you can play around with)
Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes grades out as the third best QB in the AETY Model this week and no one is going to play him. Keep an eye on the weather in Denver as it currently looks gross. If it clears up a bit, I’ll have Mahomes simply because he will be un-owned.

Weather is absolutely brutal. Fading.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt – All in on Kareem Hunt this week. I love Kamara a ton as well (as everyone does), so I’m trying to pair these two together as much as possible WITHOUT using Gio Bernard as the third RB. Everyone and their mother will be using that trio together.
Ezekiel Elliott – Zeke around 5% ownership? I don’t love him this week, but the model still thinks there’s a lot of upside with Elliott this week in what should be a surprisingly up-paced game.
Ronald Jones – I don’t know why people aren’t rostering RoJo AGAIN this week. He was my second highest-owned running back last week and is likely to be in the top-three again this week. Tampa runs the ball so well and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. RoJo is going for 20+ yet again in Week 7.
Jerick McKinnon – Another team that is extremely efficient running the football is Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. The Patriots have been rather suspect against the run this season (they’re still a good run defense) but I trust this outside-zone scheme to pay control the pace against New England.

With no Mostert and a questionable tag on Jeff Wilson, McKinnon should be in for a large workload at a very reasonable price.
Antonio Gibson – While everyone goes to pay down for Gio Bernard, I’ll do everything in my power to move up to Gibson. This is strictly to get off of Gio Bernard in addition to me being in love with Gibson this week for NFL DFS GPP lineups. Dallas is absolutely awful at defending the run (29th in run defense DVOA).

Honorable Mention: Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, Josh Kelley (big bump up is Justin Jackson is out), James Conner, La’mical Perine

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay – All in on Kenny G this week against Atlanta.
Stefon Diggs – Pair em’ up with Josh Allen or run him solo as a pivot off of the chalky top-priced wideouts. No one in this Jets’ secondary can handle Diggs and his elite route running.
Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley – This game is going to shootout. Get exposure to it!
Odell Beckham – I always play Odell Beckham when he’s going completely under the radar. At only $6.1K, I will have a lot of Beckham in my Joe Burrow/Bengals stacks. Feel free to use Hunt/Beckham on the other side. I love this game’s ability to shootout at low ownership. LeShaun Sims in coverage may be one of the worst cover corners in the NFL.
DJ Moore – I have so much Kamara and want to run it back with someone from Carolina. I was on the fence between Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, but have officially decided it will be DJ Moore for me. Anderson is out of my player pool and I hope that doesn’t kill me.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – I will also include a speedy wideout against Vernon Hargreaves. MVS is consistently racking up a ton of air-yards and he is absolutely primed up for a blowup game. I’m quite confident this is the week.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, AJ Green, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Damiere Byrd, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Hunter Henry – The AETY Model has Henry projected for 6.02 catches which just just barely behind Travis Kelce. His price is way too low this weekend.
Noah Fant – Fant is probably my favorite GPP tight end this weekend as no one is going to play him. He is by far the most talented pass catcher that is healthy for Denver in a game where they’re going to be chasing points right from the get-go. He should have a field day against the weak part of the Chiefs’ defense (their linebacking core).
Dalton Schultz – No idea why he’s $3,900 on DraftKings. I don’t expect a lot of defense to be played in Washington on Sunday and Schultz/Gibson or Schultz/McLaurin make for perfect salary relief, mini-stacks.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Harrison Bryant, Hayden Hurst, Darren Fells

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 6 was personally the best week of DFS of my life and what made it even better were all of the screenshots from the Win Daily members. Nothing gets me more fired up than seeing our team absolutely crush a NFL DFS slate. Let’s run it back again in Week 7.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 7, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is HUGE. I personally am not a fan of DraftKings moving an 11-game slate up to a 12-gamer, but oh well. So many great options and value everywhere.
Quarterback seems a bit slim for me. Kyler and Russ are going to draw a ton of ownership and it’s just tough to fade that game in general
Gio Bernard and Alvin Kamara chalk week. You likely HAVE to lock in both in your cash game builds.
Tons of good WRs for cash games this week.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,100 DK / $8,400 FD) – Seattle’s pass defense has been torched on a weekly basis, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. We don’t need to look into this matchup too much, lol. Kyler Murray’s rushing floor is second to nobody on this slate and a 55-point total clearly states this game is going to be up-pace and high scoring.

Kyler is going to be the highest owned QB on this slate and it’s an easy decision to go with the public and ride Murray as your cash game quarterback here at home against Seattle.
AETY Projection: 25.29 points

2. Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DK / $8,100 FD) – Assuming Aaron Jones is still highly questionable to suit up for the early matchup of Green Bay @ Houston, Aaron Rodgers should be heavily leaned on in a much needed bounce-back victory after completely laying an egg last week in Tampa Bay.

Houston’s defense overall is terrible and the pace of this game should be one of the higher ones on the slate. If Aaron Jones plays, I’m not as interested in Rodgers, but if he’s out, I absolutely love Rodgers with a plus matchup on the road in the dome.

Green Bay is simply way too efficient when they lean on Rodgers and this pass game. This is a great spot for Rodgers and this Packers’ offense as a whole.
AETY Projection: 22.08 points

3. Matt Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – If you want to pay down a bit at QB, there’s never a better matchup on the board than a QB against Atlanta (30th in pass defense DVOA). Hell, Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions and still had a season-best fantasy performance. You know the drill at this point in the season: use quarterbacks against Atlanta.
AETY Projection: 21.36 points

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Joe Burrow

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,300 FD) – No Michael Thomas. No Emmanuel Sanders. Carolina’s run defense (or lack thereof)… Wheels up for Alvin Kamara (-250 to score on most sports-books… sexy). Lock him in for your cash game lineups!
AETY Projection: 25.05 DK / 21.64 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – Kareem Hunt’s ownership is likely to be through the roof this week (as will Kamara’s and Bernard’s). It’s hard for me to get off of Hunt in my cash game lineups (and most lineups for that matter) because this matchup is too juicy for me to turn my back on.

The Bengals are giving up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs and have been rather loose with pass catching running backs. Hunt is a pure three-down running back behind one of the best offensive lines in football. At this price, he’s likely a must-play in most DFS formats this weekend.
AETY Projection: 21.73 DK / 20.22 FD
Chris Carson ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD – Simply way too cheap for a top-tier, three-down running back who is playing in the chalkiest game on the slate. Arizona’s run defense is slightly above average, but I’m not afraid of the matchup at all with how active Carson is in the Seattle passing attack. His floor is 4 catches in this matchup and should have plenty of opportunities to get into the end-zone.
AETY Projection: 18.75 DK / 17.10 FD
Giovanni Bernard ($4,500 DK / $4,800 FD) – With Joe Mixon out, Gio Bernard is the easy, free-square play in Week 7. Use him in cash games.
AETY Projection: 15.94 DK / 14.03 FD
Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD) – If you need another salary saver in addition to Bernard, Antonio Gibson should be that guy for you again this week. He never really does anything special, but this is the best matchup Gibson has had in quite some time. Dallas currently ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and literally get destroyed by opposing backs on a weekly basis.

I hate how much JD McKissic we see for Washington each week, but Gibson is the more talented player and finally has low odds to score a touchdown this week (-105). Yea, that’s nothing special, but Vegas hasn’t shown Gibson that type of love all season. If you need the savings, ride Gibson.
AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 13.78 FD

**Jamaal Williams is in play IF Aaron Jones is OUT

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, James Conner, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – If Aaron Jones is out, I want to do everything in my power to lock in Adams in my cash lineups. He’s going to be the heaviest owned WR on this slate and is matchup proof. I likely won’t make my decision on Adams until Sunday morning, but I know I really, really want him to fit in my cash lineup.
AETY Projection: 21.25 DK / 17.61 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – #1 Wide Receiver against Atlanta. Do we need to say more? Lock in Golladay. He needs to priced up around $7,200 in this matchup on DraftKings.
AETY Projection: 19.41 DK / 16.22 FD
Tyler Lockett ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – Classic case of me and the Seahawks wide receivers in cash games. On FanDuel, DK Metcalf is cheaper, use him. On DraftKings, Lockett is cheaper… so I’m using him.

If you’re not playing Wilson or Carson in cash, you’re going to want one of these Seahawks’ pass catchers. We can’t fade this game.
AETY Projection: 17.66 DK / 14.58 FD
Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jacksonville is dead last in pass defense DVOA and Keenan Allen is an absolute target monster for Justin Herbert. The AETY model has Allen’s projected target share for 30% this week and that’s something to note in itself for your NFL DFS cash games.

Vegas props on Allen are also through the roof with a 6.5 receptions player prop (juice is on the over). That’s wild.
AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 14.91 FD
Terry McLaurin ($5,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – I have no idea what DraftKings is doing with McLaurin’s price-tag. This guy just puts up points on a weekly basis and gets a juicy matchup against Trevon Diggs from the Cowboys. That’s a top-five matchup on this slate. Lock him in.
AETY Projection: 18.21 DK / 14.80 FD
Diontae Johnson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – We’ll likely need another salary saver at the wide receiver position, so welcome back, Diontae Johnson. ~~I don’t love this matchup as much now that Adoree Jackson is likely back for the Titans~~, but he’s too cheap to not consider in NFL DFS cash games.

Adoree Jackson is out. Much more confident in Diontae.
AETY Projection: 11.15 DK / 8.91 FD

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, Dontrelle Inman

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,300 DK / $7,900 FD) – Clearly the top tight end on this slate. I hate paying down at tight-end, but this week I’ll likely have to. If you can find a way to build around Kelce, do it.
Hunter Henry ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Henry is averaging 7 targets per game but is priced in the mid $4K’s… This is a lay-up on DraftKings and a free-throw on FanDuel (I’m not sure what that means but wanted to stay on theme with basketball). Henry is by far the #1 value at the tight end position in the AETY Model.
AETY Projection: 13.93 DK / 11.48 FD
David Njoku ($3,000 DK / $4,500 FD) – I personally think Harrison Bryant is a much more talented player than Njoku, but with Hooper out, Bryant is going to be leaned on for blocking first, running routes second. Njoku is an awful blocker but a quality route runner. He’s going to be extremely popular in DFS this week due to the price tag and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk for the savings in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 8.39 DK / 6.77 FD

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, TJ Hockenson, Jared Cook, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Bucs
Los Angeles Chargers
Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Gio Bernard
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Washington

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks (Week 7)

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7, Thursday Night Football. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	SportsBook	Line	Unit Risk
NYG +4.5	TBD	-105	0.3
Darius Slayton O52.5 Rec Yds	FanDuel	-110	0.4
Greg Ward O32.5 Rec Yds	FanDuel	-110	0.8
DeSean Jackson O34.5 Rec yds	DraftKings	-134	0.5
Greg Ward O3.5 Rec	DraftKings	-112	1.1

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ Week 6 AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 6. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the ...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 6

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed NFL DFS 4 out of the 5 weeks and this slate sets up for yet another successful week. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson – His ownership is plummeting each day leading up to Week 6 and it makes a bit of sense due to their being so much value all over this slate. The AETY Model has Lamar Jackson as the far and away QB1 and I’m going to trust it. He hardly ran the ball last week due to gamescript and a lingering knee issue, but I’m going to trust that he’s good to go.

Philadelphia’s secondary is really banged up and this should be a matchup Jackson thrives in. Darius Slay is still in concussion protocol but is looking like he’ll suit up. If he happens to be inactive (sharp bettors in the US market think he still has a shot to miss this game) it’s wheels up for Lamar Jackson at under 10% ownership.

My favorite thing about Lamar Jackson is when you stack him up, you know who to stack him up with… one or two of the boys below. If you want to run it back with Zach Ertz and run double tight end, that will certainly be contrarian. Maybe Miles Sanders if you have the stomach for it.

Potential Stack(s):
– Hollywood Brown/Mark Andrews
DeShaun Watson – I’m just a Watson truther I guess. He’s given us the flame emoji on DraftKings each of the last two weeks and we’ll go back to well again this week. This game should be up in pace and offers a ton of salary relief on both sides of this game. With Tennessee as a decent-sized home favorite, I really like the gamescript going in Watson’s favor here. Quarterbacks in high-total games with rushing upside always have my interests.

There are so many different ways to stack him up this week and I like that… a lot.

Potential Stack(s):
– Fuller/Cooks
– Fuller/Cobb
– Cobb/Cooks

Potential Game Stack(s):
– Fuller/Cooks/Brown
– Fuller/Cooks/Brown/Henry
– Fuller/Cooks/Brown/Jonnu
– Fuller/Cobb/Brown
– Fuller/Cobb/Brown/Henry
– Etc… You get the point
Aaron Rodgers – The dude is on another planet right now and so is this offense… not to mention Davante Adams is back and 100% healthy. This Green Bay/Tampa Bay game now holds the highest total on the slate and we need to seriously take that into consideration when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. The educated portion of the betting public likes this game to go over the total and the AETY Model projects this game to have the most snaps played.

More snaps = more potential for fantasy production. Tampa Bay’s defense has been legit this season, but they lost their anchor on the defensive line, Vita Vea. These cornerbacks are good, but Green Bay’s offense and Davante Adams are better.

Lastly, in the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals (AETT) algorithm within the AETY Model, this is the only game that had a combined total greater than 42 points (which is an elite number for DFS production). For those who don’t know the purpose of AETT, please reach out to me on Discord or Twitter and I’ll make sense of it for you. Until then, just trust it.

Potential Stack(s):
– Adams/A. Jones
– Adams/A. Jones/Tonyan
– Adams/Tonyan
– Adams/MVS
– Adams/MVS/A. Jones

Potential Game Stack(s):
– Adams/Jones/Godwin
– Adams /Jones/Evans
– Adams/MVS/ Godwin
– Adams/Tonyan/Godwin
– Adams/MVS/Godwin/Evans
– Adams/A. Jones/Godwin/R. Jones (my personal favorite, but there’s too many to type out, lol.)

Honorable Mention: Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

James Robinson – Jacksonville believe it or not, comes in as a top-10 run offense (DVOA) and they’re going up against the second-worst run defense in the NFL. Robinson is currently sitting around the 10% ownership mark and that is a sweet spot for me this week.

There’s so much chalk on this slate and Robinson is an excellent pivot up/down from 25% owned players like Mike Davis, Alexander Mattison, and David Montgomery. This Detroit/Jacksonville game has the second highest total on the board and we need to get exposure to it. You can run Robinson solo or mini-game-stack him with Kenny Golladay on the other side (my personal favorite 1-1 stack on this slate).
Aaron Jones – The highest total game on the slate and arguably the most versatile running back on this slate. Yes, the Bucs’ run defense has been incredible all season long, but they just lost Vita Vea. In addition to that, the Bucs are giving up over 7 receptions to opposing running backs per game!

As long as this game stays close (it will), Aaron Jones is going to get the lion-share of the snaps for this Packers’ explosive offense and score at least one touchdown (-240 to score, 4.5 receptions prop… sexy). A 5% Aaron Jones is something I’m all about.

Use him solo. Stack him with Rodgers. Game stack him with Godwin/Ronald Jones. Whatever it is that you want to do, I’ll likely sign off on it when targeting this late afternoon hammer for an incredibly chalk slate.
Ronald Jones – On the other side of Aaron Jones is Sia’s boy, Mr. RoJo. Jones and this Tampa offense have been incredibly efficient when running the football (7th in run offense DVOA) and will lean on their run game here against the weaker part of Green Bay’s defense (25th in run defense DVOA).

If Leonard Fournette is ruled out or limited in any capacity, Ronald Jones is going to be in for a massive workload in both the rushing and passing attack. He is WAY too cheap on both DFS platforms. Roll him out there and enjoy the fireworks in the afternoon game. I would have guessed his ownership would be damn near 20%, yet I can’t find any projections out there that have him higher than 10%.

Cheap exposure to the highest total game on this slate… sometimes good things like this just fall into our laps.
Todd Gurley (FanDuel ONLY) – I personally am not a Gurley truther by any means, but he sure as hell won us a lot of money last week. There hasn’t been a more active running back inside the green-zone than Todd Gurley this year. This game’s total is well over 50 points and we know both of these defenses suck. Gurley should be in for a two touchdown game and is a nice pivot away from Calvin Ridley chalk.

Although I like Ridley a great deal, Gurley’s multiple touchdown upside can clearly take away a ceiling game from Ridley in a cakewalk matchup. You can definitely ride Gurley on DraftKings if you feel inclined to do so, but I will not be.

Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Myles Gaskin, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Joe Mixon

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams – Keeping this one simple. No one on this slate has the target share upside that Adams has. I’ve mentioned a few times how I love this game as an “under-the-radar” stack… even though it’s the highest total on Sunday’s board? Wild times.
Allen Robinson – David Montgomery is not that good, lol. He’s going to be 35-45% owned on this NFL DFS GPP slate and that’s mind-blowing. If there’s one guy to get close to Adams’ target share, it’s Allen Robinson. He’s the easy leverage play over all of the people who plug in D-Mont. The AETY Model absolutely loves Allen Robinson in this matchup against Rasul Douglas.
Chris Godwin – Everything I read says he’s 100% healthy. If this game shoots out like we all think it will, I will need a lot of exposure to a 5%-owned Chris Godwin. Mike Evans will be out of my player pool as he’ll have his hands full with Jaire Alexander all day. Even though Evans can certainly win that matchup, I’m keeping a condensed player pool in NFL DFS GPP lineups and will lean on Godwin to be my upside guy with Ronald Jones for the Bucs.
Kenny Golladay – I don’t care how chalky he is, I’m all in on Golladay against Chris Claybrooks and this league-worst pass defense. Golladay needs to be priced up at least $800 more on this slate.
Tyler Boyd – I can’t quit Tyler Boyd. He’s far and away the WR1 on the Bengals pass-happy offense. He’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 and gets a tasty matchup on the inside with Kenny Moore from Indianapolis. The Colts are a big home-favorite here and that should keep Burrow and Boyd going all game long.

At sub-5% ownership, LFG. Ride him solo or mini-stack him with your Jonathan Taylor lineups.
Laviska Shenault – I want to say Ghost and I were the first people in the DFS industry to roll out Shenault in high stakes GPPs (Week 2). “Sick brag, Nick… you’re a tool.” I agree, lol.

Now that we have that out of the way, I will have a lot of mini-stacks of one Jaguars player and then Kenny Golladay on the other side (maybe some D’Andre Swift as well). That is a focal point of my builds this week. In lineups that I cannot afford James Robinson/Golladay, I’ll likely go down to Shenault/Golladay mini-stacks.

Neither of these teams play a lick of defense and those mini-stacks are going to pay dividends to your main stacks you roll out in GPPs.

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Mark Andrews – Far and away the highest ceiling tight end on this slate.
Hayden Hurst – this is the last time I’ll write about Hayden Hurst if he busts again this week. If we all expect this game to shoot-out, Hurst should be in a great spot to score a touchdown or two. With the relatively low volume he’s received this season, we’re likely banking on him scoring a long touchdown to smash value.

Having said that, for all qualified tight ends on this slate, Hayden Hurst sits fourth in average depth of target (ADOT)… If there’s any week for Hurst to splash and get a 30+ yard touchdown, it’s this week against Minnesota.
Irv Smith Jr. – I’m disgusted I have to write about a tight end (who splits time with another tight end) in a run-first offense, let that be clear, lol. But, Irv Smith is so damn cheap this week. I absolutely love the end product of my GPP lineups that have Smith in them, so I want to share that all with you.

Smith is #3 in the qualified ADOT metric for this week and in a game we all think blows up the scoreboards, Smith should have his best opportunity for a breakout game against Atlanta.

If he doesn’t go nuts, we DO NOT need a whole lot of production out of Irv Smith when he gives us the ability to roster virtually anyone we want in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, TJ Hockenson, Eric Ebron

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 5 was a perfect get right for our NFL DFS Cash Games and we did not get disappointed. Let’s stay hot for Week 6! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
Quarterback seems wide open, lot of nice options there.
David Montgomery & Alexander Mattison Chalk Week. I get the Montgomery play with his price, but Mattison is a bit expensive on DraftKings to be considered a “lock” in cash games. He’s perfect on FanDuel.
Looks like a great week to get value WRs – lock in AJ Brown in cash.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Very expensive, but likely holds the highest floor out of any quarterback on this slate (if you believe his knee is good to go). Per usual, I doubt I pay up for Jackson, but if your build finds a way to fit him in, do it.
AETY Projection: 24.51 points
DeShaun Watson ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – The AETY model can’t quit DeShaun Watson and for good reason, he’s hit 3x value the past two weeks. This matchup projects to be one of the highest in pace and offers a total over 53 points. Tennessee’s pass defense isn’t nearly as bad as I thought it would be this year (ranked 11th in DVOA), but I trust Watson and this healthy Houston wide receiving core to hit value in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 23.12 points
Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DK / $7,300 FD) – Every week we attack this incredibly banged-up Jacksonville passing defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA (and giving up over 22 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks). Stafford and the Lions are coming off of the bye and should be ready to rock. Locking in Stafford is an easy decision this week for cash games.
AETY Projection: 20.55 points
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – If you need more savings for the rest of your lineup (on DraftKings), Fitzpatrick is probably as low as I would go. Miami is a massive home favorite here which sets the table nicely for the running game, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins like to start games with a very high pace and that should bode well for Fitzpatrick against the 31st ranked passing defense.
AETY Projection: 20.28 points

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – Pound for pound the top-dog running back on this slate and Houston’s run defense ranks 5th worst on this slate. I expected a huge game from James Robinson last week but Jacksonville abandoned the run rather quickly. Tennessee commits to running the football and Henry is likely to have the best odds to score in comparison to any other running back on the slate. He’s likely to come in > 40% in ownership in cash games this week.

The model has him projected for over 110 rushing yards… That’s juicy.
AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.86 FD
Alexander Mattison ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Everyone is going to play Mattison this week in cash games. I can’t believe these DFS sites actually priced a backup RB coming into an RB1 workload correctly, that usually never happens. I hate this price point because Dalvin Cook himself is usually at this price point, but it’s probably good chalk to eat in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 20.39 DK / 18.91 FD
James Robinson ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – Incredibly cheap on FanDuel so that’s where you’re likely going to want to use him more frequently this week, but Robinson is certainly in play in all formats this week against the Lions’ 31st ranked run defense (in DVOA). They cannot stop the run and Robinson also has plenty of pass-catching upside if Detroit gets ahead early and forces Jacksonville into an up-paced gamescript.

Having said that, Devine Ozigbo is back for Jacksonville this week so it will be interesting to see if he takes some snaps away from J-Rob. I doubt it, but keep an eye on it.
AETY Projection: 18.27 DK / 16.61 FD
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Hopefully this game can be played despite the Covid-19 rumors going around. This is a sexy price for Taylor as a big home-favorite going up against a defense giving up over five yards per carry. Smash spot for Taylor.
AETY Projection: 18.66 DK / 17.41 FD
Ronald Jones ($6,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites (especially FanDuel). Green Bay and Tampa Bay currently have the highest total on this slate (54.5 points) and you’re going to want to get exposure to that. If Fournette is out, Jones is likely a lock-button for my cash game lineup against Green Bay’s 25th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA), giving up almost five yards per carry.
AETY Projection: 16.72 DK / 15.03 FD
David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – Its Carolina’s run defense. Todd Gurley just tore them up… lock in Montgomery in cash games (as everyone in the field will) and move to the rest of your build.
AETY Projection: 18.81 DK / 16.19 FD

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – A healthy Davante Adams is always in play for NFL DFS cash games. He’s quite pricey, but he’s likely the slate leader in target share in the highest total game in Week Six.
AETY Projection: 17.59 DK / 14.35 FD
Calvin Ridley ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Similar to Adams, Calvin Ridley is likely viable for cash games on a weekly basis, especially in this matchup against Minnesota’s secondary (who has been improving a bit over the past few weeks). Ridley is too expensive for my builds, but I would not talk you off of Ridley in a shootout against Minnesota.
AETY Projection: 16.26 DK / 13.39 FD
Adam Thielen ($7,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – I hate to just list all of the top wide receivers on this slate, but any WR1 against Atlanta is in play for cash games. If you’re not using Mattison, use one of these Vikings receivers in Thielen or Justin Jefferson.
AETY Projection: 20.54 DK / 16.68 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – Always have interest in Golladay when he’s priced like a low-tier WR1. The sky is the limit for Golladay in this matchup against Jacksonville. We will see plenty of Marvin Jones in this one as well and that’s always a bit of a headache, so I do prefer to get my Detroit exposure through Stafford, but Golladay is a great value at these price points.
AETY Projection: 17.26 DK / 14.34 FD
AJ Brown ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – If you don’t want to roster Derrick Henry, roll with AJ Brown for your Tennessee exposure. Yes, Bradley Roby has looked incredibly impressive in shadow coverage (and he will shadow Brown on Sunday), but Brown is too talented for Roby to simply shut down AJ Brown. He’s too cheap and a perfect way to get exposure to this up-paced game against Houston.
AETY Projection: 16.34 DK / 13.52 FD
Chase Claypool ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD) – I hate chasing recent blow-up games, but with Diontae Johnson ruled out, Chase Claypool becomes an easy value play I’m 100% going to roster in cash games. He’s absolutely massive and runs a 4.4 forty yard dash. I’m extremely excited to see this dude with a full workload of snaps. Against Cleveland’s secondary, he should have plenty of opportunities to show off his abilities yet again.
AETY Projection: 12.84 DK / 10.58 FD
Randall Cobb ($4,400 DK) – DraftKings value play. Tennessee has a very tough time covering slot wideouts and Cobb is one of my personal favorites. He’s still an excellent route runner and the target share continues to climb with DeShaun Watson on a weekly basis. I want a piece of Houston and Tennessee in my cash build this week.
AETY Projection: 11.26 DK

Honorable Mention: DeVante Parker, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Laviska Shenault

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – Easily the top tight end on this slate. Roster him if you can afford him. The AETY Model doesn’t love his ability to get close to 2x value on FanDuel, but he has the highest touchdown upside of any tight end in football.
AETY Projection: 13.90 DK / 11.63 FD
Zach Ertz ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD) – I know, he’s been borderline useless in fantasy this season, but the targets are consistently there for Zach Ertz. This Philadelphia passing attack is improving each week and getting closer to fully healthy. I like Ertz’ ability to hit 2x value this Sunday against the inside of this Baltimore pass-defense.
AETY Projection: 12.58 DK / 10.24 FD
Evan Engram ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD) – Washington is giving up over 15 DraftKings’ points per game to opposing tight ends. I know there’s nothing really sexy about Engram thus far this season, but he should have a handful of opportunities to hit value. I don’t love it, but it’s a nasty slate for tight end options.
AETY Projection: 11.07 DK / 8.96 FD

Honorable Mention: Jonnu Smith, Hayden Hurst, Trey Burton, Eric Ebron, Irv Smith Jr.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Football Team
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Alexander Mattison
RB: David Montgomery
WR: AJ Brown
WR: Chase Claypool
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Ronald Jones
DST: Miami

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Tuesday… yes, Tuesday Night Football! Hopefully you all enjoyed the clean sweep of Prop Bets last night! What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Team/Player	SportsBook	Line	Unit Risk
Devin Singletary O19.5 Rec Yds	DraftKings	-112	0.7
Kalif Raymond O37.5 Rec Yds	FanDuel	-110	0.4
Kalif Raymond O2.5 Rec	FanDuel	-102	1.2

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website this week. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 5

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. Week 4 was a bit of a bust and I’m quite pissed on how we missed on so many players that I loved, but we will right the ship here in Week 5. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

DeShaun Watson – Absolutely in love with DeShaun Watson yet again for Week 5. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and Bill O’Brien is no longer calling the plays. At 5-10% ownership, I’ll roll out a lot of Watson this week.

I love the Jaguars side of this ballgame as well so feel free to game-stack this one as many wats as you can.
Kyler Murray – Kyler is going to come in sub-5% ownership… Do we need to say more? I don’t love any Jets coming back on the other side to game stack it, but you could do worse than punting a Chris Herndon or Jeff Smith. I smell a 3-passing touchdown game from Kyler (in addition to his rushing upside). One of those TD’s will be to a low-owned Christian Kirk.
Gardner Minshew – Someone pinch me, I never write-up Gardner Minshew, but he looks damn good on the AETY Model this weekend. I love this games ability to shootout and go well over the high total 54 points. I’ll have more exposure to this game with Watson, but I’m going to have plenty of Minshew and these pass catchers as well.

Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

James Robinson – More exposure to this HOU/JAX game is something I’m going to be very interested in. Houston’s defense is giving up ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and also giving up plenty of receptions to them. Robinson is a 3-down back in a great matchup in a game that I love to stack up.
James Conner – Philadelphia’s run defense ranks right there in the middle of the pack in terms of run defense DVOA, so it’s not like this is a matchup made in heaven. But, the AETY Model really likes Conner’s ability to rack up yardage here and he’s likely to be 5-8% owned on this slate. If you’re looking for a pivot off of CE/Hunt/Elliott, Conner has plenty of upside at 70% less ownership than the trio above.
Josh Jacobs – Kansas City’s run defense is not good with or without Chris Jones being healthy as they rank 27th in run DVOA. If Gruden has half a brain, he’s going to ride Jacobs into the ground to keep Mahomes and this is explosive offense off the field as long as possible. Look for Jacobs to have a 20+ point fantasy outing with 3-5 receptions. If he can get in the box, he’ll be a great addition to your GPP lineups.
Antonio Gibson – He’s $5K on DraftKings. I’ll need a lot of savings for most of my builds and Gibson is a player with a very unique skillset. If he can finally get some passing catching work with Mr. Dump-off, Kyle Allen, Gibson’s floor is realistically 3X value on this low salary.

Honorable Mention: Todd Gurley

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins – a 10% owned Hopkins is all I should need to say. The Jets’ secondary is awful and Hopkins target share is second-to-nobody on this slate.
Tyreek Hill – I love to writeup speedy pass catchers against the Las Vegas secondary. Hill is projected in the top-5 for receiving yards this weekend in the AETY Model and should realistically be 15-20% owned in NFL DFS GPP tournaments… not 5-10%.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Your weekly pick on Nickell Robey-Coleman addition to the GPP article. Schuster is way too talented and owns a massive size advantage over Robey-Coleman. With Darius Slay spending most of his day on the outside with Diontae Johnson, Smith-Schuster should be in a sneaky big day.
DJ Chark – More exposure to this JAX/HOU shootout. Bradley Roby started the season strongly against Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown, but I saw enough last week when Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen did whatever they wanted in the Minnesota passing attack. Chark is a main piece of my JAX/HOU game-stacks.

Laviska Shenault is also in an incredible spot against Vernon Hargreaves. I’ll have a ton of him as well this weekend for the salary relief and high-floor.
Devante Parker – This is a game with a high total that no one seems to be talking about. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K (on DraftKings). That is something I look for every single week and this is a matchup where he can succeed in against a depleted 49ers’ secondary. You can mini-game stack him up with Kittle on the other side.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, Sammy Watkins, Isaiah Ford, Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – he’s the best PPR tight-end in the NFL and absolutely dominates the Raiders, historically. While everyone jams in CEH, you can pivot to the Chiefs’ passing attack for some differentiation in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Darren Waller – On the other side of your Chiefs stacks, roll out Waller. Hell, you can go double tight-end with Kelce if you’d like. The Raiders are 11-point underdogs here and will be chasing points which bodes very well for their top receiver, Darren Waller.
Hayden Hurst – Everyone wants to stack up CAR/ATL, but no one is playing Hayden Hurst? Julio Jones is likely to miss this game and that’s going to open up plenty of opportunity for Hayden Hurst. He’s going to score a touchdown on Sunday.
Eric Ebron – The Eagles are giving up over 18 DraftKings points to opposing tight-ends. Ebron is a red-zone monster and should easily find the box in this matchup at a very low price point and little-to-no ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Finally, we had a down week in NFL DFS Cash Games last week. I’m super pissed off on how much of a miss Kenyan Drake and Darrel Henderson were, but we’ll get right back on the success train this week. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
Dak Prescott chalk week… I’m not a fan, but I get it.
Mike Davis chalk week – probably a must play in cash games. Likely CEH as well (for me at least).
Looks like a great week to get value WRs
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Crazy expensive and likely not to crack my cash game lineup, but it’s Patrick Mahomes. The floor is incredibly high with a 33.5 point implied team total against this putrid Las Vegas secondary.
AETY Projection: 24.62 points
Dak Prescott ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD) – You’ve all seen what Dak has been doing, lol. I’m still not buying in that the Giants can keep this one close and keep Dak’s foot on the gas pedal, but this Dallas defense is so bad that it’s unlikely they blow anyone out this year. As much as I hate it, Prescott is just fine for cash games this week.
AETY Projection: 22.95 points
Kyler Murray ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Half man, half quarterback, and half running back. Kyler’s rushing floor speaks for itself and he’s likely to be in play for cash games on a weekly basis. I worry about the Jets’ ability to keep this game close, but Kyler is good for 19+ fantasy points every week.
AETY Projection: 23.18 points
DeShaun Watson ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – Yep, I’m going back to the well of DeShaun Watson. The Jaguars are ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA, Houston’s offense is relatively healthy, Bill O’Brien is gone, etc. etc. I think this game has crazy shootout ability and I love the price-point here for DeShaun Watson. Hopefully he looks to do some damage on the ground as well. Watson in a dome with a 30 point implied team against a brutal defense is plenty for me to go back.
AETY Projection: 23.83 points
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello, Mr. Value. Bridgewater’s price is criminally low against this Falcons’ defense (ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA). Matt Rhule’s offense has been quite productive and will not be slowed down in Atlanta this weekend. Bridgewater is the perfect pay-down QB for NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 20.93 points

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hard to not love Elliott this week despite Dallas losing yet another key offensive lineman for the season. I’m not likely to jam in Elliott into my cash game lineup, but it makes a lot of sense with the high Vegas total in this matchup against the Giants.

Low-key, the Giants have been incredibly stout against opposing running backs (limiting then to under 3.7 yards per carry), but Elliott is just so active in this offense (both rushing and receiving) that it makes him quite difficult to fade… especially when 30% of the field is likely to use him in NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 22.51 DK / 20.74 FD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – CEH’s price makes it rather easy for me to fade Zeke Elliott in cash games. The snap counts continue to rise in favor of CEH and they’re an 11-point home favorite. Not to mention Las Vegas is the 30th ranked run defense. This one is easy, lock in CEH.
AETY Projection: 20.27 DK / 18.62 FD
Mike Davis ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – Not going to lie to you, I was never a believer in Mike Davis, but his usage alone has made me a believer. It’s relatively cheap exposure to this CAR @ ATL shootout and everyone is going to roster Mike Davis. In cash, it makes a lot to sense to roll him out there. Atlanta’s run-defense isn’t half bad, but Davis is simply too active in the passing game to pass-up. He needs to be priced up near $7K.
AETY Projection: 20.99 DK / 18.73 FD
James Robinson ($6,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – Damn near a freesquare on FanDuel, James Robinson is a fine cash game and GPP play this week against the 29th ranked defense in terms of run DVOA. Did you watch what Dalvin Cook just did to this defense? He’s no Dalvin, but he’s clearly a 3-down back for Jacksonville. He’ll be very active in this shootout on Sunday.
AETY Projection: 20.57 DK / 18.99 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – I always love Kevin Stefanski running backs (usually it’s Nick Chubb… RIP for now) and will continue to love em again in Week 5. Chubb is going to be in for a big workload against a very stout Indianapolis defense, but I’ll back this outside-zone run scheme any day of the week. Cleveland’s offensive line is incredible and will pave plenty of lanes for Hunt to hit value.
AETY Projection: 18.79 DK / 17.13 FD
Jerick McKinnon ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – If Mostert misses this game, I’m simply locking in Jerick McKinnon on DraftKings. The AETY Model loves this matchup for San Francisco running backs and McKinnon is in for a nice day if Mostert can’t suit up.
AETY Projection: 18.28 DK / 16.53 FD
Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you need some salary relief, Antonio Gibson is your man this weekend. The Rams defense is very solid but they’re getting absolutely carved up by good running backs (averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 28th in run defense DVOA). I prefer Gibson more in GPPs, but if his salary makes the rest of your lineup sexy, ride him in cash games.

We all know what Kyle Allen did with CMC last season. It’s checkdown time (let’s just hope those don’t all go to JD McKissic).
AETY Projection: 14.65 DK / 13.32 FD

Honorable Mention: David Johnson, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley ($7,500 DK / $8,300 FD) – It’s very likely that Julio Jones is going to miss this game with his hamstring injury. This game is everyone’s favorite shootout so make sure you get a lot of exposure to Ridley if you’re into this game. Rasul Douglas and Donte Jackson do not have what it takes to contain Ridley at home in the dome… and we all know Atlanta’s defense is not going to get stops. It’s a Ridley Sunday.
AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 15.00 FD
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – No one is going to play JuJu, but this matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman on the inside of this Philly secondary is one of the nut matchups in NFL DFS. You likely should just get your JuJu exposure in GPPs, but this is too good of a spot to leave him off this article.
AETY Projection: 15.74 DK / 12.87 FD
Will Fuller ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) – Jacksonville’s secondary is awful. Enough said. We love Watson and we love Fuller.
AETY Projection: 15.28 DK / 12.77 FD
DJ Chark ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) – Great price across the board for DraftKings and FanDuel. Chark is by far the #1 receiving threat on this Jacksonville offense and he’s likely to see 9+ targets in this shootout. Bradley Roby has been solid, but Chark is going to feast on him on Sunday. This is a mismatch made in heave for Minshew and Chark.
AETY Projection: 15.32 DK / 12.64 FD
CeeDee Lamb ($6,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Darnay Holmes may be the worst slot-cornerback in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb seems to be getting a full run in this Dallas offense and that’s starting to phase out Michael Gallup just a bit. Lamb is in a smash spot in this matchup and has the world of talent to bring a lot of upside to the table here against the Giants. Cash, GPP, whatever it is, Lamb is a top-10 play for me this weekend.
AETY Projection: 14.23 DK / 11.75 FD
Robby Anderson ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD) – No need to go deep into this one. It’s cheap exposure to this Carolina passing attack against Atlanta’s secondary. Both Robby Anderson or DJ Moore make perfect cash game plays this week.
AETY Projection: 17.70 DK / 14.52 FD
DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,400 FD) – Miami is a 9-point underdog on the road against a San Francisco secondary that is extremely beat up. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K… That’s something I’m always targeting in NFL DFS. I don’t quite agree that the 49ers should be this big of a favorite, but I do love this matchup for Parker. Way too cheap.
AETY Projection: 13.66 DK / 11.12 FD

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus

Tight Ends

Not going to do much write-ups for the tight-ends, there’s so many in play this week.

Travis Kelce ($6,400 DK / $7,800)
George Kittle ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)
Zach Ertz ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD) – cheapest quality piece of exposure to the Dallas / New York game. He’s incredibly popular this week so I’m fine with you eating this chalk in cash games.

Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst, Darren Waller, Chris Herndon, Eric Ebron

Defense / Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Teddy Bridgewater
RB: CEH
RB: Antonio Gibson
WR: DJ Chark
WR: DeVante Parker
WR: Robby Anderson
TE: Evan Engram
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Browns

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Thursday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	SportsBook	Line	Unit Risk
Darnell Mooney O37.5 Rec Yds	FanDuel	-110	0.5

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

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Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Defense / Special Teams

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

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