Sports Betting

Week 1 was just so-so. We went 2-2 on our four bets. On the bright side, we did nail the Jags as the Dolphins are all hype. But we put faith in Mr. Kohl’s who paid us back with one of the worst games of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers. How is Atlanta feeling about that investment in Kirk Cousins now? Looked exactly like what they saw out of Ridder and Heinecke last year. As for Win Daily, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.

As for Survivor, week 1 was crash and burn as we laid an egg with the Bengals. But my pool allows a buy-back after week 1 so we turn the page and try to get back on the winning track in week 2. I will not fade the Pats this week!

NFL BETS WEEK 2 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 2-2)

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -1.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS

The betting market is flooded with New York money this week. And it’s a wonder if they even watched football last week as the Giants ranked up there as the most disappointing team of the week after getting trounced by the Vikings to a tune of 28 to 6. While the Commanders didn’t fare well, allowing 392 yards to the Buccaneers, they at least had a pulse. As of this writing, 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Giants making this a very public play.

Yes, I know the stats revolving around Giants QB Daniel Jones and his propensity to play well against Washington. He is 5-1-1 against the Commanders in his career and has a 10 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Comparably, he is 17-37 against the rest of the NFL. However, Jones was 0-4 against the Cowboys when Dan Quinn, the new Commanders HC, was the DC in Dallas. And in those contests, he averaged just 151 yds/game passing with a 1 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Yes, the Cowboys have a better D than Washington currently employs, but it does show Quinn knows how to attack Jones.

Also, the Commanders big weakness in Week 1 was their pass D as they allowed an 80% completion rate and 4 passing TD’s to Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. As we all know, the Giants offense doesn’t have that type of burst from their passing game. In fact, it’s ranked 30th in DVOA, trailing just the Browns and Panthers. I also like the matchup of Jayden Daniels dual threat attack versus the Giants. According to PFF, the Giants were rated last in rush defense last week as they especially disliked the LB play led by Bobby Okereke (55 snaps and recorded just 2 tackles). This is very notable as the RPO needs to be controlled by the DE’s and LB’s.

I missed on Washington in Week 1 but I’m going back to the well here. And hopefully doing it with an unbiased mind. The public is all over the Gmen. Which is always a reason to zig. But I also think the Giants will not be able to take full advantage of the Commanders weaknesses and they’ll also have challenges of their own to stop a powerful run game from the Commanders.

BALTIMORE RAVENS -8.5 vs LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was a great story last season as he rallied the troops after the firing of Josh McDaniel. And because of his passionate leadership, he was hired as the permanent head coach in the offseason. So, there was plenty of good vibes around Vegas knowing Pierce was at the head of the spear. But those vibes may have disappeared in just one week as the Raiders HC made several head scratching calls, including a punt late in the game on 4th and short in Chargers territory. Which means the jury is out on Pierce and with every misstep and loss, the trade Davante Adams campaign will just get louder. Making each Raiders game must see TV.

But the real reason for backing the Ravens here is the fact that Baltimore is coming off a Thursday night game. And the Raiders are traveling due east and starting a game at 1pm EST. Speaking of the latter first, the Raiders are 0-7 since the start of the 2022 season on the road against teams east of the Mississippi River. That included a 30-12 loss last year to Chicago, who was starting QB Tyson Bagent. As for the Ravens playing on Thursday, they were able to endure 3 extra days of rest and are 5-0 since 2018 on the week’s following playing on Thursday night.

The Ravens let one get away in Kansas City and did not play their best football. Baltimore has extra rest and is playing a team that doesn’t play well on the east coast. Remember, Baltimore led the league in point differential last season and had nine wins by double digits. They know how to win big and have a very good opportunity to do so tomorrow against a Raiders team that looks to be in turmoil already.

DETROIT LIONS -7.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

We have a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round playoff game last season in which the Lions won 31-23. The big difference in that game was turnovers as the Lions won that battle 2-0.

Looking back at Week 1, the Lions were fortunate to come away with a victory as they needed OT to get past the Rams. Down south, the Bucs looked solid in their thumping of Washington. So simply from an eye test, and based on the close contest in the playoffs last year, these two teams look much closer than a 7.5 point spread.

The issue stems from Tampa’s health on defense. Especially in the secondary. They suffered four key injuries in Week 1:

• All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield is presumed OUT with a foot injury
• CB Bryce Hall went on IR after Week 1 (nickel corner)
• Starting CB Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion, is questionable but did practice Thursday
• DB Josh Hayes suffered an ankle injury, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday

That spells doom against a high-profile passing attack such as the Lions. I’m also concerned about the efficiency at which the Bucs can move the ball consistently. Tampa ranked 29th in rushing DVOA in week 1 and was 25th in rushing rank per PFF. Therefore, I’m siding with the Lions and for Detroit to get their first 2-0 start since the 2017 season.

CINCINNATI BENGALS +6 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Bengals once again floundered in their season opener. This time to a gutty Patriots team. For all intensive purposes though, gutty or not, the Patriots were supposed to be one of the worst teams n football entering the season. And what was more concerning was the offensive output as they scored just 10 points.

So, there’s no wonder that just 19% of the money this week is on the Bengals as they travel to KC in Week 2. In my Yahoo pick-em pool, 79% of the picks are on the Chiefs at -6.

Which is the perfect opportunity to buy low on Cincy. Listen, they looked terrible in week 1. But the Bengals play the Chiefs tough. Burrow is 2-0 in his career in the regular season against Mahomes. And he’s 3-1 overall including playoffs.

The Bengals need WR Tee Higgins back and I’m not sure he’ll suit up. If he is able to go, this becomes a smash play. Otherwise, the Bengals will need to find ways to get the ball to Chase early and often.

The Chiefs are always a public team, and rightfully so. And the Bengals are at a low point in bettors eyes. But this looks like a great spot to fade the norm and back a team that is better than what they showed last week. I’ll take the points with a possible outright win by Cincy.

SURVIVOR PICK

BALTIMORE RAVENS

I don’t always want to take the biggest spread but the fact that the Ravens lost week 1 and aren’t happy with it makes me very happy to back them ATS and in survivor. Baltimore is not happy with how they played against KC and will look to take that out on Vegas. Plus, based on the reasons above, the Raiders have some serious disadvantages that will be too tough to overcome.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 1 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a big game to cover as the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets and a team in win-now mode. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Running Back

You may have heard of the 49ers RB. He’s pretty good at football. So there’s no hiding that Christian McCaffrey will be used in a heavy percentage of lineups tonight. The key will be to understand how to use CMac. As much as you heard about San Fran’s D last year, the Jets were just as impressive. Because they were so good against the pass, teams often tried to exploit them in the run game. While they ended 24^th in rushing yards allowed, they ended up 3^rd in DVOA against the run. That’s because the Jets saw the 3^rd most rushing attempts against them. New York ended up with the 10^th lowest ypc, 4.1, and allowed just 14 rushing TD’s, 11^th least in the league.

The good news for McCaffrey owners is that the Jets did allow the 7^th most points to opposing RB’s last year. And they allowed 100-yard rushing games to three different backs that are towards the upper echelon of the league in Isaiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. And none of those offensive lines matched up to the 49ers in run blocking grades as the Raiders were 14th, Chiefs were 16th and Giants were 30th in run blocking in 2023. San Francisco, on the other hand, was 1^st in run blocking grade last year and just re-signed their star LT Trent Williams.

Christian McCaffrey’s backup entering the season looks to be Jordan Mason as Eli Mitchell hit the IR during training camp. Mason did get some touches last year and flashed with a 5.1 ypc. I think there’s value in Mason tonight based on his potential to shed some of McCaffrey’s workload.

UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Move Mason up to a must play. His workload plus salary will let you afford Samuel/Hall/Wilson.

Tier 1: Jordan Mason

Tier 2: None

Wide Receiver

The Jets have one of the best defensive backfields in the league led by star CB Sauce Gardner. According to PFF, the Jets ended the season with the highest pass coverage rating in the league. Statistically speaking, the pass defense finished 2^nd overall in DVOA and 2^nd in pass yards allowed.

New York also imposes a good pass rush as they registered 48 sacks last season ranking in the top 10 in football. However, they are without DE Hasaan Reddick who was traded to the Jets in the offseason but has failed to report due to a contractual stalemate. So the Jets will now rely on inexperienced ends in Jermaine Johson and Michael Clemons to create pressure on the QB. One good news for the Jets is the 49ers were ranked 24^th in pass block rate in 2023. And PFF rates their Offensive Line at 25^th best heading into 2024. Their strength is run-blocking and they do struggle in pass-blocking. Even with the return of Trent Williams we could expect some conditioning issues and rust.

I think this is a very tough matchup for all 49er WR’s based on the great coverage skills of the Jets plus the 49ers difficultly in the pass blocking game. However, I do like Deebo Samuel because he can be used in the running game and we see that is a great place to attack the Jets. Plus with new, or inexperienced DE’s, the jet sweep could be deployed early and often. The big question mark is Brandon Aiyuk who signed late in the preseason. As with many late signees, I expect some rust. But more importantly I expect him to see a ton of Sauce tonight thus lowering his value. More often than not, Gardner did follow around the other team’s top WR each game.

With the injury to rookie WR Ricky Pearsall the 49ers will once again use Jauan Jennings as WR3. He will provide some salary relief and value tonight. But one WR to keep an eye on is rookie Jacob Cowing. HC Kyle Shannahan has great praise for Cowing stating “the game wasn’t too big for him”. The 49ers will likely use him on special teamsi ncluding punt returns.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel

Tier 2: Brandon Aiyuk, Jacob Cowing

Punts: Jauan Jennings

Tight End

Though the Jets are tough against WR’s, they are more foregiving to TE’s. That showed in the stats last year as the Jets allowed the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s. The biggest showing was David Njoku’s 134 yard performance in Week 16. For those reasons as well as the Jets looking to take out WR’s, Kittle should be highly considered for your lineups and even the CPT spot.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

Like the 49ers, the Jets have one of the most dynamic RB’s in the game in Breece Hall. In most season long fantasy drafts, McCaffrey and Hall were the first two RB’s off the board. On the surface, it could be tough sledding tonight for the Jets running game. That’s because SF allowed the 3^rd least rushing yards last season. And they finished 4^th in rushing defense DVOA. But as we look deeper, there are points to be had here against a great SF defense. For one, teams were often down early against SF and abandoned the run. The 49ers D saw the least amount of rushing attempts in 2023. And according to PFF, they ranked 11^th in rushing defense grading last season.

And here’s another reason to be optimistic about Hall tonight, the 49ers allowed the 8^th most receiving yards to RB’s last season. On average, RB’s caught 5.3 balls per game for 36 yards against SF. And Hall is not your average receiver as he finished last season with 76 catches of his own.

The Jets drafted RB Braelon Allen in the fourth round to battle with other incumbents such as Israel Abanikanda for the backup RB job. And by all accounts, Allen won that job and will see the field tonight against SF. We do expect him to give Hall a break at times and get anywhere upwards of 5 touches tonight. He would need to punch one of those in the endzone for his value to hit.

Tier 1: Breece Hall 

Tier 2: Braelon Allen (Punt Play)

Wide Receiver

The Jets are starting year two of the Aaron Rodgers experiment. And because of his tragic season ending injury in Week 1 of the 2023 season, we never got to see how good he could make WR Garrett Wilson. Instead, Wilson had to see passes from bad throwers such as Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemien. And his production was still very good as Wilson finished as WR 24 in 2023. What was most notable is that he was 4^th in targets with 168. So now, the hope is, that he’ll have many more balls on target that he can actually catch because it’s Aaron Rodgers. And he can now turn into the top 10 WR we’ve all been waiting for.

The other good news is that the 49ers ranked 18^th in adjusted points to fantasy WR’s last season. They have a solid CB in Charvarius Ward but the others rank in the bottom half of PFF’s DB grades. Meaning this defensive backfield can be had.

As for the other WR’s, free agent Mike Williams has been cleared to play and will be a big target downfield and in the redzone for Rodgers. Additionally, WR Allen Lazard’s production should see a spike with Rodgers at the helm based on their chemistry from the Green Bay days. Xavier Gipson will likely return kicks so his value goes up because of the potential for a special teams TD. I’m punting on the other low value WR’s in Malachi Corley and Irvin Charles.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Mike Williams, Allen Lazard

Tight End

The 49ers were good against TE’s as they allowed just 3 receiving touchdowns to the Tight End position in 2023. Fred Warner is one of the best LB’s in the game and can cover almost any TE. While I’m excited to see if this is finally the breakout year for Jets TE Tyler Conklin, this is a difficult matchup. Overall the 49ers were the 3^rd best unit against TE’s. The one optimistic thought is that he will see the field plenty and could get more downfield routes if Mike Williams is on a snap count.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a stud RB or WR. I’m passing on QB’s at the MVP position because of the opposing defense’s ability to rush the passer and defend on the back end. Both units ranked high against the run, but there are metrics showing you can succeed in the rushing attack. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we did see a combo of Jameson Williams and Lions RB’s hit. So I can see a scenario where we package Hall and Wilson as well as McCaffrey or Kittle/Samuel.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jordan Mason, Mike Williams 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jordan Mason, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy

DraftKings CPT Punt: Mike Williams

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Jordan Mason
• Garrett Wilson
• Breece Hall
• Deebo Samuel
• George Kittle
• Brock Purdy
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Mike Williams
• Aaron Rodgers
• Tyler Conklin

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Jacob Cowing
• Jordan Mason (moved to Tier 1)
• Allen Lazard
• Greg Zuerlein
• Jake Moody
• 49ers D
• Jets D

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Malachi Corley
• Jauan Jennings

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one stud RB
• PLAY JORDAN MASON!
• Play Garrett Wilson and/or Deebo Samuel
• Only play 1 QB, or none
• Be careful of Brandon Aiyuk because of the potential for Sauce to follow him around the field.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is only 43 and these are two top Ds o we could see points in kicking game.
• Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Garrett Wilson over 5.5 catches (-160 FD) / Garrett Wilson most receiving yards (+125 DK)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Win Daily Sports is flying high into the first Sunday of the NFL Season. We’ve already had some solid hits on the Thursday and Friday Showdown’s. But now comes our wheelhouse, which is the Sunday Main Slate. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow but before then, hop into the projections and lineup optimizers readily available for all our members.

Like last year, I will be providing my top four games each week. Last season was a resounding success as I hit on 63% of my plays during the season and finished with a 49-29 record. You can check out Week 18’s article which gives the final tally as to how we finished. 

I will also provide a pick for a popular pool that many casual and avid fans play called an Eliminator or Survivor Pool. You must pick one team to win on any given week in this format. The catch is if that team loses, you are out of the pool. 

And if your team wins, you can’t select them again for the rest of the season. I’ve won several of these in the past years, and my strategy is simple: WIN the week don’t WAIT! Only canvass the future a little, and instead, focus on the now.

NFL BETS WEEK 1

ATLANTA FALCONS -3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Whether it’s Russel Wilson or Justin Fields, I like the Falcons to come away with a victory and cover in week 1 against Pittsburgh. There are several factors in play here but the largest one for me is the difference in offensive talent. First off, Atlanta likely had the worst play at QB in 2023 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke battling for worst in the league. So it was no surprise the Falcons invested heavily in the offseason at QB and brought in Kirk Cousins as well as drafting QB Michael Penix. Overall, Atlanta has the superior offensive units by owning the better QB, RB, WR’s, TE and O Line. Speaking of the offensive line, the Falcons return all five starters from a solid unit last year. This was a unit that ranked 4th in pass blocking and 7th in run blocking a season ago.

Defensively, I will give Pittsburgh a slight edge as they can provide a solid pass rush and have quality players in the defensive backfield. But Atlanta strengthened theirs in the preseason with the addition of LB/DE Matthew Judon which helps one of their biggest weaknesses which was pass rush (no player had over 6.5 sacks for Atlanta last season). You could argue their biggest splash on defense was bringing in Rams DC Raheem Morris as their head coach as he’s been at the helm of several top 5 defenses.

Don’t forget about one key intangible here, and that’s the person calling the plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons and inexplicably ignored his best player, Bijan Robinson, and fumbled every move at the QB position. Now he calls plays for the Steelers and will undoubtedly be motivated himself to prove Atlanta wrong. But instead, I think the motivation will come more from the 50,000+ fans in the seats.

Lastly, I see a significant market imbalance as 65% of the bets are coming in on the Steelers yet 60% of the money is supporting the Falcons. That tells me where the smart money is, and I love to follow that trail right to the ticket window.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Last year was supposed to be the next step for the Jags. In 2022 they came out of nowhere and won the AFC South under HC Doug Pederson. Then they won a playoff game, after being down by 28 points. And while they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, they did hold their own. Which is why they wore the crown of “next one up” and ended up as a team that couldn’t handle expectations as they crashed hard with a late season collapse.

So, one can understand why everyone is picking the Dolphins this weekend. For one, Miami is a public team that displays a high-octane offense and has character at the coaching and skill positions. The Jags are the opposite, as their coach is barely heard from as well as their QB and other stars. In one Yahoo pool I’m in, 91% of the picks ATS are on the Dolphins.

Which means we are zigging while everyone else is zagging. But this is more about the Dolphins who we all have a saying about. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Miami proved that to be real as they were 1-6 against teams with winning records last year, with their one victory coming by 2 points against Dallas. Even more alarming is they were outscored by 100 points in those 7 games.

While Jacksonville just missed out on the playoffs, they were a winning team at 9-8. And they have talent that’s equivalent to the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins are a heavy public play so I’ll swerve and go against the populous. I expect the Jags to be motivated by last years failures and ome ready to play and win this game outright on Sunday.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Washinton Commanders are generating some good buzz lately as HC Dan Quinn takes over a team that has been often overshadowed by ownership issues and poor play at QB. They used the 2nd pick in the draft to select Heisman Trophy winner QB Jaylen Daniels. And he’s looked the part in training camp and preseason. Almost like a young RG III who burst on the scene his rookie season and propelled Washington into the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Bucs are fighting against Father Time and somehow delayed the inevitable rebuild for another year. But it did put them in a precarious position as QB Baker Mayfield played so well that they had to sign him to an extension. I find that as more of a problem than solution as Mayfield isn’t the long term answer, as witnessed by his 2022 season when he was found jumping team to team. We’ve also seen WR Mike Evans continue to perform and high standards but he now enters his age 31 season meaning his production will soon see a dip.

The other trouble is the Bucs can’t run the ball efficiently. Which is exactly what HC Dan Quinn wants to do to offenses, which is make them one-dimensional. I like the matchup of the unknown (WASH) versus the overachiever (TB) here. Also factor in that Vegas doesn’t have teams fully figured out yet. Last year in Week 1, underdogs went 10-6 ATS and road teams went 12-4 ATS. I think this is a spot that’s dangerous for Vegas as they’re seeing 68% of the money come in on Washington.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -5.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS

The Seahawks made a big change in the offseason as they parted ways with long-time HC Pete Carroll and brought in the Ravens DC Mike MacDonald to assume the role as Head Coach. While Carroll still has a role with the organization, this is clearly a new genre and one in which MacDonald has full autonomy. The Hawks were abysmal on defense last year and he has the pedigree and coaching aptitude to change that immediately.

The trouble for Denver is they have a rookie QB in Bo Nix starting his first NFL game. And it’s being played in one of the most raucous stadiums in the NFL in Lumen Field. Yes, Nix played in Oregon the last 2 years but that won’t get him prepared for the level of noise the 12th man brings.

Finally, this game has one of the largest deltas in ticket handles versus amount of money bet. At the time of this writing we’re seeing 47% of the tickets come in on Seattle against the spread. But more importantly, 74% of the money is on the Seahawks. This could impact the line by tomorrow so keep an eye on that. However, if you can get -6 or less than book it.

SURVIVOR PICK

CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bengals are in much better shape heading into the first week of the season than they were last year. There O-Line has been addressed and their franchise QB is fully healthy. They also received good news yesterday when star WR Ja’Marr Chase indicated he would play this weekend despite contract talks hitting a stalemate. But the real reason for this play is their opponent, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are considered by most to the be the worst team in football. They have the lowest win total at 4.5. And by all accounts from the preseason, HC Jerrod Mayo has some learning to do. Mayo looked overwhelmed in several situations including his choice of starting QB.

You don’t have many games in which you can use Cincy this year as the AFC North is one of the best divisions in football. So take them when you can and this is definitely one of those situations.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.