We have a great weekend of football ahead of us as the NFL enters the Divisional Round. As a recap for Wildcard Weekend, I went 3-3 on game bets and if I could have let my heart stay quiet, we would have been 5-1 (Damn Flacco and the Birds). But it shows we have a good pulse on several of these teams and looking forward to dissecting these games. The storylines are also deep this week as we see San Fran and Green Bay matchup for the 10th time in the playoffs. And we have Mahomes vs. Allen for what is the third leg of their playoff trilogy.

The other two games have interesting parallels as both Houston/Baltimore and Tampa Bay/Detroit faced off in the regular season. The first rounds were both double digit affairs, but the dogs are coming into these games hot and with something to prove.

SATURDAY 1/20/24 UPDATE: Player Props added to SF game and DET/TB game posted

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-5 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – DIVISIONAL ROUND SATURDAY

SAT 4:30 PM – HOUSTON TEXANS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS

Last week against the Browns, CJ Stroud looked like a veteran QB that had navigated the pressures of the playoffs. But yet that was his first playoff game and he wowed by throwing 3 TD’s and completing 76% of his passes. In doing so, he became the youngest QB to win a playoff game in NFL history. He also tied Lamar Jackson, this week’s opposing QB, for career playoff victories.

This game will come down to whether the Texans can effectively move the ball through the air against the number 1 pass defense in the league. And whether the Ravens can move the ball on the ground against the number 2 rush defense in the NFL For Houston, they’ll need to establish the run to open up the pass similar to what they did against Cleveland. Stroud silenced the pass rush using play action early and often. And in Baltimore’s four losses this season they’ve allowed an average of 140 yards rushing per game.

Here’s the other points to consider. CJ Stroud is 6-1 ATS against teams over 0.500 this season. And since Week 2, he is 9-3 in games he started. The three losses have come by a combined 7 points. As for the Ravens, they are the number one seed for a reason and have the most well rounded team in the AFC. But since 2010, number one seeds are just 10-14-2 ATS. Even more worrisome is they are just 18-8 SU.

I think there’s enough juice in the tank, and enough players on the Houston sideline for them to compete for 60 minutes against Baltimore. They lost in week 1 by a score of 25-9. But they were only down 7-6 at half and actually outgained Baltimore by 3 yards. The difference was Baltimore scored TD’s on their drives while Houston settled for three FG’s. With a full season now under his belt, I expect Stroud to turn those three’s into seven’s and make this a much more competitive game.

GAME PROPS:

DEVIN SINGLETARY anytime TD scorer (+130) and over 61.5 yards rushing (-110): If the Texans are to stay close, they’ll need Singletary to get yards on the ground and in the air. He’s scored a TD in two straight games so he has that going for him. And he’s gone over 61.5 yards in five of his last six.

ISAIAH LIKELY over 18.5 yards longest reception (-110): Likely gone well over this number in five straight games. And the one he missed, six weeks ago, his longest was 18 yards. Bottom line, he’s tough to tackle in open space and we saw Njoku have success against the Texans last week.

SAT 8:15 PM – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -9.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers looked good as you possibly could last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay pulled off the massive upset winning in the Boys home stadium, something that hadn’t been done in 16 games. Now they face an even tougher task, and that’s the 49ers who are the best all-around football team in the NFL.

Looking at matchups, San Fran should have no problem moving the ball against Green Bay. The Pack are both 26th in passing defense and rushing defense DVOA. San Fran on the other hand is 4th in passing defense DVOA and 15th in rushing defense DVOA. But more impressively, they have the #1 rated offense according to DVOA. And that’s really the big difference here in this game. San Fran will put up points but can also get enough stops to win by margin.

I love Green Bay. From Matt LeFleur to Jordan Love, I’ve been riding the team from the bay in Wisconsin all year. But this is where the buck stops. I have concerns about Green Bay’s health on defense. Their star DB Jaire Alexander is questionable, and they have ruled out linebacker Kingsley Enagbare. Even at full strength, this is a defense that has often struggled against high-powered offenses.

San Fran is 5-2 against playoff teams this season with their only true loss to Baltimore (lost Week 18 to LA Rams). On the other hand, Green Bay was 3-3 against playoff teams during the regular season. Plus Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 ATS and SU at home in the playoffs.

GEORGE KITTLE over 54.5 yards receiving – The Packers allow the 5th most fantasy points to TE’s. They’ve allowed over this number to 5 of the last 6 TE’s they faced. And we saw what Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson did in the middle of the field last week.

BRANDON AIYUK over 4.5 receptions – Green Bay is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s. And even if Alexander plays, he primarily plays on one side of the field. It’s a toss up between Deebo and Aiyuk as who is truly #1 WR in this offense. But in this particular matchup I think Deebo will get more of the focus leaving opportunities for Aiyuk.

SUN 3:00 PM – DETROIT LIONS -6 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

Between WinDaily staff and subscribers, I feel like I’m in the minority for this game. On the surface, Tampa was dominant, and Detroit looked lucky to win. There are several recent events where the team that squeaked by in the Wild Card round failed to win in the Divisional round. But there aren’t many occasions where that team played at home two weeks in a row (wildcard to divisional) since that could only happen in the new playoff format which started in 2020-21.

But I tend to believe the Lions should play better this week without the pressure of having to win a playoff game for the first time in 32 years. Plus, facing the Rams was additional pressure that definitely weighed on the Lions. That was all lifted off their back and now they can dial completely in on their opponent this week, who they dominated earlier this year winning 20-6 in Tampa. As for Tampa, they looked great last week but played a flawed team in Philly. If they come with the same game plan, all-out blitzes, and leave the middle open, they will get exposed by the short passing game of the Lions.

A key factor to me will be redzone possessions. I was impressed with the Lions redzone defense as they forced the Rams into three FG’s. That could be a difference this week as Detroit is 2nd in redzone TD efficiency and Tampa Bay is 30th.

Finally, QB Jared Goff actually plays well against teams above 0.500. He’s 7-3 ATS at home and 14-5 ATS overall against such teams in a Lions uniform. And for all the research I did, I can’t find a team with 8 losses to ever make the conference championship game. So as much as I fear backing Dan Campbell, I just think the Lions have the right mix to roll over the Bucs.

JAMESON WILLIAMS over 35.5 yard (-110) / over 50 yards (+170) / over 75 yards (+470) – He let a lot of people down last week so that’s the exact reason to go back to the well in this one. We saw Devonta Smith beat Tampa over the top last week which is a weekly occurrence for the Bucs D. Williams is the one deep threat in this offense. The Lions WR had two catches for 53 yards, including a 45 yard TD catch, in their first outing.

MIKE EVANS over 5.5 receptions (+125) – Don’t get turned off by Evans’ numbers last week as he had a tough matchup versus CB Darius Slay. But he also dropped two balls that would have put him over 100 yards. Evans saw 7 targets last week and saw 10 targets when the Bucs played Detroit back in Week 6. This is a good number for a high volume WR.

SUN 6:00 PM – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 at BUFFALO BILLS

I am a Bills fan at heart. The small city in Western New York has endured too many heartbreaks over the past 3 decades. And today, they face their biggest adversary in the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are 2-0 against the Bills in the playoffs. And while Buffalo won the game in KC earlier this year, that goes out the window for this affair.

I’m buying up the Chiefs to 3 points but think they’re live on the moneyline as well. Mahomes is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. And Andy Reid is 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. As much as I want the Bills to win one for Buffalo, I can’t ignore those numbers.

JAMES COOK over 2.5 receptions – He doesn’t score TD’s but he makes up for that in the passing game. Cook has 44 receptions on the year and went over this total in the past two weeks. He also had five catches on five targets in the first game against KC. How often the Chiefs blitz helps drive this number up.

RASHEE RICE over 70.5 yards – Rice has been on a tear since midseason. He’s the beneficiary of teams trying to minimize Kelce’s impact on games. He had 10 targets and 72 yards in his first matchup against Buffalo. I expect a similar workload today, and one where he could break one of those quick hitters for a big game to help get him over this number.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had a slow start to the Wild Card Weekend but hit on both the underdogs yesterday (bets provided on Sirius and Discord) to even out our game bets record at 2-2. And we have one more day to get that number into the positive and that’s exactly what we’re aiming to do today.

The Packers became the first road team to win in the playoffs and have swiftly changed the landscape of the NFC. They made history by being the first #7 seed to win a playoff game. The other #7 seed, the Pittsburgh Steelers, look to repeat that feat today in the AFC.

The nightcap features an embattled QB, Baker Mayfield, facing an embattled team, the Philadelphia Eagles. What team shows up for Philly may potentially define HC Nick Sirianni’s tenure in the City of Brotherly Love.

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-2 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD MONDAY

BUFFALO BILLS -10 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

I traded some texts with people in the industry regarding the bets I liked before the playoffs started. And I stuck true to that word, even where I wanted to zag (switch to Houston). But I finally have got to the point where I am comfortable that switching my initial lean is right. And with that, I’m backing the Buffalo Bills today.

I initially leaned towards Pittsburgh because of the Buffalo Bills propensity to play close games versus mediocre teams. And they also have some Dallas Cowboys in them when it comes to the playoffs. There is also the weather, which will obviously be a factor, that can often level the playing field. But the fact of the matter is, the loss of JJ Watt and limitations of QB Mason Rudolph are real.

Here’s what I saw that made me rethink my process. The story and late ascension of Joe Flacco came crashing down in Houston. Same thing happened to Josh Dobbs earlier this year. The NFL eventually figures you out, especially if you’re not a top level talent. Mason Rudolph led the Steelers to a playoff run, but he’s bound to get figured out.

And then there’s the weather which showed up on Saturday night in KC. Better teams, especially ones with a wide difference at QB, can have an even bigger advantage then on a clean field. We saw Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles in the cold and wind and KC was able to just tee off and crowd the line. If Rudolph can’t cut the ball down the field, Buffalo can stack the box and hide their one main weakness, the run defense. And it will allow a D-Line that was 4th in the league in sacks to create havoc on the Steeler’s O-Line.

So I’m back on the table smashing, snow-shoveling, no-shirt wearing bandwagon of the Bills Mafia. The Bills are great front-runners and if they get out to an early lead they should be able to cruise to the Divisional Round and await the dangerous Chiefs.

GAME PROPS:

JAMES COOK over 15.5 carries (-110): The volume has been there of late for Cook. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. And he likely would have got there last week too if it wasn’t for Josh Allen having 15 carries. We all know the weather looks bad but the reason I like this bet is due to the possible game script of Buffalo getting out to a big lead and using the running game to squeeze down the clock. In the games that the Bills have won by double digits this year, Cook has averaged 17.2 carries.

JAYLEN WARREN under 35.5 rushing yards (-110): What I saw in last week’s game steers me towards the under on Jaylen Warren’s props. He fumbled twice in the 4th quarter with Pittsburgh being able to recover one. We know Buffalo saw that and will be looking to punch and strip the ball out of Warren’s hands. It’s snowy and the ball will be wet. I think this will be a tough spot for Warren especially if he loses a fumble at some point. He’s also seen over 10 carries just once in his past six game while his backfield partner has averaged 19 carries in that same stretch.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

If you all know me by now, I am as down on this Eagles team as any other Philadelphia team in my 40+ years on this planet. Losing 5 of 6 down the stretch, often in back-breaking fashion, made all us Philly fans numb from head to toe. But it is true that the NFL Playoffs are a new season. The Cowboys proved that yesterday.

The key is on defense as it has to improve. And the Eagles have Darius Slay returning to the lineup while reportedly moving Avonte Maddox to safety. That will help cover the losses of Sydney Brown and Ried Blankenship. But the absolute key will be the front seven. They need to tighten up their run defense and make Baker Mayfield one-dimensional.

Remember, though this was early in the season, the Eagles outgained the Bucs 472 to 174. Even as ugly as this team looked for the last month, they have the talent and playmakers, even without A.J Brown, to dominate the Bucs. Offensively, the biggest factor will be how the Eagles handle Todd Bowles’ blitzing. If they can do that effectively, they’ll be able to move the ball and create positive plays in both the passing and running game.

While I’m not confident the switch can be flipped this easily, I do see the possibility of this team getting right and rallying around veterans like Jason Kelce and Brandon Graham now that the noise is not in the locker room. For one night, I see that happening. Or they’ll be the same uninspiring team we saw in December and lose by 20. Should be fun!

GAME PROPS:

DE’ANDRE SWIFT over 13.5 Carries –

CADE OTTON over 13.5 yards longest reception –

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Welcome to the best weekend in football! It’s the NFL’s Wildcard Weekend where they stretch six games of action over three days to keep our viewing interest on high. And this year, we have so many exciting matchups with 4 of the games landing with a spread of five points or less. The storylines are deep, as you probably already know, with several star players playing their former teams. It’s going to be must watch football for sure!

I finished off the regular season with a 5-0 record in Week 18. And that caps off a 9-1 stretch over the past two weeks. Final record on the season is 49-29, as shown below. Not to toot any horns or blow any whistles, but where else are you going to find a 63% win rate on individual NFL game bets? As you see on the DFS side, and now on the betting side, we put in the work so we can win together. If you bet $100 on each of the games I posted this year, you would be $1710 (+17.1 units). And that’s coming off a 19-11 College Football Bowl Season too! Combined, that would be up $2400 (24 units).

Ok, enough with the WinDaily promotions. Let’s keep the momentum rolling. Each year the playoffs bring a new challenge. Can we get to a perfect playoff prognostication? While that’s the ultimate goal, the real work is winning more than we lose. So let’s set the goal at 8 wins (in 13 games) and see where we land. With that said, my game bets for Saturday’s two games, along with additional props, are below. Let’s go WinDaily Fam!

2023 SEASON RECORD: 49-29 (last week 5-0)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD SATURDAY

CLEVELAND BROWNS -2 at HOUSTON TEXANS

This is a typical betting situation where I would absolutely hammer the Texans. Home dog in the playoffs that is being undervalued by the public. But the issue I have with the Texans is twofold. First, it’s a combination of a rookie QB and rookie HC playing in their first playoff game. Brock Purdy won 2 playoff games as a rookie QB last year. But he was the first rookie QB to win a playoff game since Russell Wilson back in 2012 (Seahawks beat the Redskins 24-14 but that was the RGIII injury game). In all, rookie QB’s are 10-14 in the playoffs.

But speaking of the other side, Joe Flacco is one of the rookies to win a playoff game. In fact he won two before bowing out in the Conference Championship game back in 2008. But the second reason I’m concerned about the Texans is the battle in the trenches. The Browns have the best rated pass rush in football according to ProFootball Focus. The Texans are 19th in pass blocking. Looking even further, the Texans weakness on D is their pass defense which is 23rd according to DVOA. And while the Browns show up as the 27th ranked pass O, they are actually in the top 10 since Flacco took over.

And then there’s this feeling that we’re just on a collision course to see a Browns vs Ravens matchup in the Divisional Round. The stories are too good to be true, with Flacco returning to his first team and the Browns returning to the place where former owner Art Modell up and moved them to. This is one of the toughest games to pick, but I’m taking the Jersey Joe magic to pull off a late victory in Houston.

GAME PROPS:

DEVIN SINGLETARY under 68.5 yards rushing (-110) – The Texans RB has gone over this number just twice in his last 7 games. Cleveland has the 4th best rushing defense according to DVOA. Singletary does get most of the carries but Houston will need to succeed in the passing game today to keep up with the Browns.

JOE FLACCO over 250 passing yards + 2 passing TD’s (+140) – Flacco has thrown over 300 yards in four of his five starts. I’m nervous that Houston will play a deep zone and not allow the big throws. His base prop is 275 yards which is attractive but I’ll take it one notch down and bank on him to go over a soft number at 250 yards instead combined with 2 passing TD’s.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +4.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The story in this game is the weather. If all things hold true, this will be the coldest playoff game ever. Temperature at game time is supposed to be under 0 degrees F. And that would mark only the 4th game on record with a negative temp.

And while you’ll read the stories of a warm team going to this frozen environment, it’s not like the Chiefs are used to it either. For me, this bet is about what we’ve seen all year with Kansas City. They don’t run away from anyone, and they’ve stumbled their way into the playoffs losing games to the Broncos, Raiders, Packers and Bills. And in each of those losses, each team went over 118 yards rushing. And Miami owns the 3rd best rush offense in the league according to DVOA. I have confidence HC Mike McDaniels knows that and will find a way to mix in creative runs with all three of his RB’s; Raheem Mostert, DeVon Achane, and Jeff Wilson.

On defense, the Dolphins will need to find creative ways to create pressure as they’re without two of their best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. But they hired Vic Fangio for a reason. And he’s seen a lot of KC in the past few years based on his roles in Denver and Philly.

Add to that the weather should keep this game tight. And when we predict a low scoring affair, that’s even more reason to take the points.

GAME PROPS:

TRAVIS KELCE over 5.5 receptions (-120) – Kelce has not performed up to his standards this season. But he always performs when it’s playoff time. In 18 career playoff games he has 133 catches and 16 TD’s. That’s an average of 7.4 catches per game. And he’s had at least 6 catches in 13 of this 18 career playoff games. Add to that, the Dolphins are ranked 26th against TE’s this year (Dawson Knox caught a TD and Dalton Kincaid had 7 receptions for 84 yards last week against MIA). Even with the predicted cold weather, this is a solid prop to bet tonight.

DE’VON ACHANE RUSHING ATTEMPTS over 10 (+120): If the Dolphins are to go down swinging, then they need to get their most dynamic RB the ball more than 10 times.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The NFL season wraps up today in Week 18. And luckily for us football fans, there are many important games on the slate for us to watch and bet on. This has been a fantastic season for the NFL as the parody they aim for has been reached. While Baltimore and San Francisco are locked into the number one seeds in their conference, both are vulnerable and the postseason tournament will be wide open.

We had a great week last weekend by posting a 4-1 record. We’ll look to extend that momentum into Week 18 with the below picks.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 44-29 (last week 4-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 18

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Saints have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the NFL this season. But they played their most complete game last week in Tampa to give them a shot at the NFC South Division title. They’ll need to win today, and hope for a Carolina upset of the Buccaneers to get in the dance. Stranger things have occurred!

But this pick isn’t about the Saints as much as it is about their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. Head Coach Arthur Smith is definitely on the hot seat. From his constant swapping of starting QB’s, to his complete mismanagement of his start players, he’s completed a mess in Atlanta. And the unfortunate part is they should have won this division with the talent they have. They come into this game with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. Including two embarrassing ones; a 20 point loss to Chicago and 2 point loss to Carolina.

I don’t see how the Falcons can stay motivated today. And while this will be a heavy public bet, I’m good riding that side as long as it stays at 3 or less.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +3 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Cardinals pulled off the upset of the season last week when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 35-31. Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals playing hard to end the season which is a key factor in this bet. They also play better at home, despite their two big road upsets, as they are 4-3 ATS and 2-5 SU in the desert. As for their opponent, the Seahawks, they come in losers in 5 of their last 7. And their two wins are last minute miracles against the Eagles and Titans. Surprisingly, the wheels have fallen off the wagon as they are struggling on both sides of the ball.

The betting market is even on this game so the line isn’t anticipated to move much between now and kickoff. I’ll trust Kyler Murray to have his team hang tough and maybe pull off the outright upset.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 vs DENVER BRONCOS

The Raiders have played extremely hard under HC Antonio Pierce. Their play on the field fully represents the tough attitude that Pierce displayed when he played. They’ve also won seven straight games against the Broncos including their opening week victory in Denver.

As for Denver, the recent change in QB has left a cloud of doubt over the team. Yes, they were victorious last week against the Chargers. But they struggled to pull away against an Easton Stick led attack from LA. Where on the other hand, the Raiders crushed the same Chargers by a score of 63-21 just 3 weeks ago.

I’ll take the team that has some fight left in them versus a team that is in full transition mode under HC Sean Payton.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs CHICAGO BEARS

I was on the Bears earlier this week. I love how HC Matt Eberflus has this team playing to close out the season. It’s what Chicago fans envisioned when 2023 started. But instead it took half the season to get things straightened out and now it’s too little and too late in the Windy City. However, the best news for Chicago is that they’ll have the number one pick in next years draft due to the ineptitude of the Panthers. So this season is still a success and the future is bright.

But I’ve flipped my lean of Chicago to Green Bay for a few reasons. First, Green Bay has shown resilience on multiple occasions this year. Most importantly, they’ve shown it when playing their Division rivals. They are 3-2 in NFC North games, but impressively are 2-0 in rematches. They dismantled both the Lions and Vikings in their second games. And now they try to match that success playing the Bears for a second time.

The other reason I now like Green Bay is because of some motivational words that Justin Fields gave them. While it may not be much, he took a shot at the small town Packers. Their fans are sure to be dialed into that and ready to bring the heat today. I’ll take a fired up Packer fan base to bring the heat and make a difference in the game today.

BONUS BET: Buffalo Bills -2.5

Dolphins can’t win against good teams. Ride the Bills especially now they have some freedom knowing they’re in the dance.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.