Sony Open Betting Tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Sony Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

A couple of notables that just missed out on the card this week. Brian Harman was heavily considered, continuing his great form finishing The Sentry in 5th ranking 12th for driving accuracy, 16th for SG: APP, and 4th SG: Putt. He also finished runner-up at the strongly correlated comp course El Cameleon Mayakoba in 2023. He just misses out having not finished better than 32nd in his last 5 starts here, one of the most correlated courses on the PGA Tour for prior course form.

Lucas Glover 66/1 was 2nd for driving accuracy last week and 1st for SG: APP despite losing -2.10 approach on the 18th hole in the final round. He was narrowly left out given questions whether the improved putter will remain in 2024, after finishing 58/59 putting last week and putting weighted a little more than usual in our Sony Open betting tips. JJ Spaun, also priced at 66/1, was left out based on his course form here. Outside a 12th in the 2023 Sony Open, he has 4 missed cuts and a 47th to miss our betting tips.

Alexander Bjork was the final exclusion, preferred to another DP World Tour player also priced at 100/1. His lack of prior starts in PGA Tour events was a factor in missing our Sony Open betting tips, along with the continued ability to put himself in contention but never actually close out the win.

Sony Open Golf Betting Tips

Updated 9 Jan 7:00AM ET
Suggested Staking

Russell Henley
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Corey Conners – Sony Open Betting Tips Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds) Available at +3300 with 5 places 1/4 odds if you prefer

Brendon Todd
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Andrew Putnam
2pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Emiliano Grillo – Sony Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Ryo Hisatsune
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds) Available at +10000 with 5 places 1/4 odds if you prefer
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)

Sony Open Betting Tips Player Profiles

Russell Henley

For the second year in a row, Russell Henley makes our Sony Open betting tips. We get him at the same price as last year 25/1. Although this is undoubtedly a stronger field than in 2023, Russell Henley is also massively improved over the last 12 months. In that time, Henley has jumped from 41st to 10th in the Data Golf world rankings. To find him here at the same odds is great value.

Henley has a fabulous record at Wai’alae Country Club, including the famous win on his PGA Tour debut back in 2013. His course form reads 1-51-17-MC-13-MC-66-MC-11-2-32. He has since completed the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and Sony Open double, winning at El Cameleon in 2023. He also holds a 6th, 9th, and most recently 19th in 2023 at Harbour Town, 16th at Colonial in 2023, and 13th at the RSM Classic in the fall where he has also finished 4th, 6th, and 10th previously.

His game is perfect built for this test. He is one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour, ranking 1st in this field for the last 12 months. He is 3rd from 100-150 yards for SG: APP and 7th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months. After a big 2023, I can easily forgive a fairly average performance at The Sentry last week where he has finished in the bottom half of the field in 4/5 appearances. I expect some sharp improvement, on a golf course which is infinitely more suitable for his game.

Corey Conners – Sony Open Betting Tips Favourite

It was a typical Corey Conners performance at The Sentry. The ball-striking was once again back to it’s excellent best, finishing 9th for both driving accuracy and SG: APP. It was his short-game which held him back from finishing higher in a strong field, but finds himself back at a course where he has gained significantly putting in half of his starts and is at field average for SG: ATG. Those are big increases to his baseline statistics on other courses.

That plays out in his results in Wai’alae. He has a record here of 39-3-12-11-12. Of confidence is he arrives this time after breaking a 4 year drought of victories in 2023. Valero Texas Open host TPC San Antonio is far from the worst course comp, where SG: ATG is also highly correlated to success alongside SG: APP, driving accuracy, and putting.

Another Texas event and correlated here is Colonial, where his form reads 8-31-19-20 in 4 starts. He also holds a 17th most recently at Mayakoba, a 4th, 12th, 31st at Harbour Town, and three Top 25s at The RSM Classic where he has never missed the cut.

As always with Conners, what happens with the putter will determine his results this week. However, his T2G game will keep in contention and his prior record with short-game at Wai’alae sees him as a terrific bet at 25/1 or longer.

Brendon Todd

Brendon Todd makes our Sony Open betting tips this week, aiming to become the 7th player to complete the Mayakoba and Wai’alae double. He won at El Cameleon in 2020, where he has also finished 8th and 11th. Further adding to his course comp performances is Colonial, where he holds a 3rd, 5th, and 8th, and a 4th at both the RBC Heritage and RSM Classic.

At The Sentry last week, he was widely covered getting frustrated and accidentally breaking his driver which you can find here. Moments like that often get over-played, and many punters and DFS players will take him out of their pool this week as a result. I’d say the frustration comes more from the fact he is actually playing pretty well. He completed last week ranking 7th for driving accuracy and 13th for both SG: APP and ST: ATG. That came despite losing 5 strokes OTT in the final round with the driver out of play.

Todd closed off 2023 well, finishing 6th, 20th, and 28th during the fall events and finishing 2nd at the John Deere Classic and 7th at the Wyndham Championship. Both of the latter are golf courses where driving accuracy are rewarded. Approach shots there are also analogous to what is required this week. Over the last 12 months in this field, Todd is 4th for driving accuracy, 3rd for SG: ATG, and 19th for putting. Over 6 month, he is a whopping 11th for SG: Total and 18th for SG: APP.

Andrew Putnam

Another who made these pages in the 2023 Sony Open betting tips, his price has drifted from 50s last year to 66s in 2023. That comes after he recorded his most top 5s in a season since 2019 and 3 more than the year prior. And he secured us a 4th place last year for a full place payout, to compliment a runner-up finish here in 2019.

Putnam has made big gains in approach since then. He goes from 29th for SG: APP when looking at the past 2 years to 3rd in this field over the last 6 months. Over the last 12 months, he is 4th in this field for SG: APP from 100-150 yards just behind Russell Henley. He also has a 3rd, 15th, and 20th around Colonial.

Part of the reason for the drift in odds comes off a 40th place finish at The Sentry last week. The course is not a great fit for his short-hitting. Deep-diving into his numbers shows little for concern. After showing some signs of rust in the first couple of rounds, he gained 3.68 on approach over the weekend. He also led the field in driving accuracy for the week.

Emiliano Grillo – Sony Open Betting Tips Best Value

Grillo is as far down as 80s on open in a surprise. The perennially excellent ball-striker really made big strides with his putter in 2023. That culminated in a 7th place at RBC Heritage (where he has prior runner-up) in a designated event and a win at Colonial, where he has also finished 3rd and 8th. That compliments his performance at Mayakoba, where he holds a 8th, 9th, 10th, and 15th from his 7 starts.

Again, I can forgive last week’s performance at a course, where he has only played once back in 2016 finishing 18th out of 31 starters. He did however finish the week 2nd in the field for driving accuracy. Over the last 12 months, he is 4th in this field for SG: APP from 150-200 yards.

Now ranked 35th in the official world golf rankings, he finds himself priced alongside the likes of Ryan Palmer and Alex Smalley. He is a class above those, and could go well this week at big odds.

Ryo Hisatsune

It will be the first opportunity for many to take a look at some DP World Tour players this week. Ryo Hisatsune makes the Sony Open betting tips just ahead of Alexander Bjork. You can find both of them at 100/1. However, I prefer the 80/1 this week with the additional 8 places.

As mentioned, Bjork just missed out partly due his inability to get across the line. The other detrimental factor was his lack of PGA Tour starts. He has already seen Hisatsune a few time on the PGA Tour and he has already impressed. He finished 10th at the Barracuda Championship, on a course that usually favours bombers, and 6th at the ZOZO Championship. That came behind the likes of Morikawa and Min Woo Lee, and ahead of players such as Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, and Sahith Theegala.

The talented 21 year old is the same age as Tom Kim. He could be about to burst onto the scene in a similar way. He was a prolific performer on the Japan Tour, including 3 wins in 2021. Hisatsune achieved his first DP World Tour win at the Open de France. Le Golf National will host the 2024 Men’s Golf at the Olympics. It is a fiddly course with driving accuracy and elite approach play key. That is the same recipe we need this week.

Hisatsune finished 2023 with 6 consecutive finishes of 21st or better with three top 10s. More performances like that and he could soon become the next big thing from the Asian tours.

Zac Blair

Finally, we wrap-up our Sony Open player profiles with another selection who made our betting tips in 2023. Opening at 300/1, he was cut to 190/1 by open. We can pick him up here at 200/1 after a much improved year.

The most notable result was a 2nd place finish behind Keegan Bradley at the Travelers Championship, a designated event. We had actually put him up the event prior at the RBC Candian Open at a whopping 1000/1. He unfortunately withdrew prior to tournament start with a minor injury, and then spiked a huge result when returning priced at 1500/1. His place money alone with 8 places at 1/5th odds was 300/1!

Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July 2022. He immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to the injury, Blair had a 3rd and 6th around Wai’alae in his first two Sony Open starts. He finished last year 7th for SG: putting and 17th for SG: ATG, typically weaker aspects of his game. He also holds a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. Now healthy and off the back of a couple surprises in 2023, he is too long in the market at bigger odds than he started last year.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!