The options in tonight’s 7:05 EST 9/25 DFS main slate are limited, and most of the arms we’re focusing on are in the upper pricing tier. But there’s a couple lower priced options in the mix of today’s pitching picks to help you get some of those potent bats in your lineups. Let’s go!
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I don’t normally like to pick too much on the Marlins, but after last night’s big Mets rally and subsequent victory, I think Miami will have a tough time getting up for this game against the NL’s most electric starter. The dominant deGrom has thrown seven scoreless innings in each of his last two starts and most recently allowed just four hits with no walks and nine Ks in an 8-1 win over the Reds. He’s carrying a 3.44 ERA in 21 career starts against the Marlins but those numbers should improve overall after tonight.
He’s a huge favorite on the road in Seattle and this will be his final start in the regular season – one that’s been somewhat tumultuous. But in nine starts since being traded from the D-backs back to the AL on July 31, Greinke is 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA. 9/25 DFS features a couple of proven veteran arms with upside — and Lester has now topped 200 innings pitched for the ninth time – a feat that only Justin Verlander, who’s done that 12 times, has accomplished more among active pitchers. The Mariners don’t scare me much, so Greinke makes sense in cash and GPP.
Bieber might not be the most dominant arm on tonight’s slate, buthe’s a couple hundred bucks cheaper than Jacob deGrom and should command muchlower ownership for GPPs. He had a clunker a couple starts ago, which shouldkeep him from donning the chalk, and he’s still sporting a 28.1 K% over hislast two seasons. The White Sox have a 25.6 K% this season and Bieber should besinging them the blues in the Southside tonight.
It’s been a frustrating season for Lester, who’s 35 years old and winding down an impressive career. He’s okay for 9/25 DFS cash if you’re fine with a little bit of risk, but I think he’s more of a GPP play tonight. The Cubs southpaw has gone 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts against the Pirates this season and is 2-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four outings in September. He’s not an exciting guy to plug into your lineups, but he’s pitched well versus the Pirates and seems to be one of the best options in this slate.
I guess the aforementioned Lester could be considered apunt on FD, where he’s less than $7K, but there just aren’t too many arms inthat price range who I’ll be rolling out this evening. Samardzija will make thefinal start of his 2019 season at home versus the Rockies, who are much less frighteningon the road. Last night’s game lasted 5 hours, 31 minutes, with the Giants making12 pitching changes – so they’ll be looking for some length out of Big Jeff tonight.The 34-year-old veteran is 6-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 20 career appearances againstthe Rockies and makes for a fine cheap SP2 on DK and a contrarian GPP play onFD.
Speaking of contrarian options for 9/25 DFS, we’ll close out the recommendations with Jacob No. 2. Waguespack, a reverse splits pitcher with an occasionally aggressive approach that’s feast or famine for opposing hitters, pitched well in his last start against the Yankees in New York, peppering hitters with inside fastballs and cutters, limiting hard contact and striking out six batters over five innings. This version of the Orioles lineup (the one with Chris Davis) strikes out at a pretty high clip, and I’m less frightened of them the day following a big offensive explosion. Mix him into a few GPPs as your SP2 on DK and stay away from him on FD.
Morton should rack up plenty of Ks against the Yankees. He’s posted at least eight Ks in seven of his last 11 and three of his last four games. If there’s one thing the Yankees do other than hit home runs, it’s strike out, and they really don’t make a lot of contact in Tampa.
Tanaka has at least 5 Ks in six of his last seven games and matches up well with the Tampa lineup. There’s plenty of upside here if you want to take the risk and bank on the over for both pitchers.
I love Lamet’s 12.57 K/9 this season and 14.2 SwStr% this season,a number that’s been 15.2 over the last 30 days, good for 10th bestin baseball (min 20 IP) during that stretch. He’s posted K totals of 14,7,4,10,5, 6, 7 and 12 since the start of August. He’s also gone at least 5.0 IP in allthose games. I’m taking the over and counting on at least six Ks from Dinelson.
Stripling’s pitched just 2.0 innings in three of his last four appearances(the other was 3.0 IP), and has whiffed just 3,2,2,2 in those outings. He’s basicallyan opener now and the odds of him of racking up more than five Ks have to bepretty low. I’m taking under 5.5 Ks from the Dodgers’ opener.
Tonight’s 9/9 MLB DFS slate offers a larger than usual amount of great starting pitching on a shortened slate. Not to mention the Yankees are in Boston, which for the record feels like a real offensive trap. So, with the first Sunday of NFL in the books let’s get back to MLB.
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On the Defense
Shane Biebervs. Los Angeles Angels
$11,300 FD / $11,700
Drawing Bieber fever on the day my 9/9 MLB DFS pitching article is due it causes me both excitement, and anxiety. I always want to use him in all my lineups, but at the price he often finds himself sprinkled in instead. Regardless, the last time the Angels were unlucky enough to face him Bieber threw a complete game, allowing two earned runs with eight strikeouts. Facing an Angels team tonight batting .221 over the last seven days, and a near limitless swing and miss upside, Bieber is the clear-cut safest cash game play on the board.
MadisonBumgarner vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
$9,000 FD / $9,200 DK
If you’re looking to have more cash to play with on this 9/9 MLB DFS slate, Mad Bum at home facing the Pirates is an incredible stroke of fortune. The Pirates are 28th in MLB in wOBA (.296) versus LHPs this season with a low wRC+ of 80. With a strong ballpark shift at home in San Francisco where his ERA is a nice 2.83, and not allowing more than one earned run at home in six of his last seven starts, old Madison shines bright as a top option tonight.
Kyle Hendricksvs. San Diego Padres
$8,500 FD / $8,800 DK
Although I prefer Hendricks at home, he does find himself in a sweet matchup on this 9/9 MLB DFS slate facing the Padres. With San Diego striking out 26.4 percent of the time with a pathetic .298 wOBA versus RHPs, there is no way you do not show him some serious consideration tonight facing the most picked on team in DFS.
Merrill Kellyvs. New York Mets
$7,500 FD / $6,000 DK
The last time Kelly faced the Mets on June 2nd he had 10 strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings while only allowing one earned run. The Mets hit RHPs to the tune of a .324 wOBA, and this play is riskier than trying to grab a cornered squirrel. But in large field GPP play on this 9/9 MLB DFS slate I plan on having a fair amount of exposure here. Just keep in mind over his last eight starts he has allowed six or more earned runs in four of them.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 13 | 7 | 188.2 | 11.11 | 1.81 | 1.24 | 0.284 | 44.70% | 16.30% | 3.24 | 3.13 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 9 | 8 | 181.2 | 8.87 | 1.83 | 1.24 | 0.29 | 36.00% | 12.20% | 3.81 | 4.23 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 9 | 9 | 154 | 7.71 | 1.75 | 1.11 | 0.275 | 40.40% | 11.60% | 3.39 | 4.36 |
| Merrill Kelly | Diamondbacks | 10 | 13 | 157.1 | 7.55 | 2.75 | 1.49 | 0.294 | 41.40% | 14.90% | 4.69 | 4.68 |
On the Attack
Tonight’s 9/9 MLB DFS slate is rather tricky as far as bats are concerned, but there are still some great matchups to exploit. Here are my top two.
Cal Quantrillvs. Chicago Cubs
With the Cubs having a .330 wOBA versus RHPs (9th in MLB), and Quantrill having allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts facing the Dodgers, and Diamondbacks, this seems easy on this 9/9 MLB DFS slate.
Notable Bats
Anthony Rizzo is posting a .402 wOBA with a wRC+ of 148 versus RHPs while not homering in his last ten games.
Wilson Contreras is posting a .382 wOBA versus RHPs with two home runs over his last three games.
Nico Hoerner batted .284 in AAA prior to his callup and is $2,200 on DK while not available on FD.
TrevorWilliams vs. San Francisco Giants
The sneaky stack for this 9/9 MLB DFS slate is right here. Prior to his last three decent starts he had allowed five earned runs or more in the three previous. With the Giants being the off the radar team every night, on a shortened slate I plan on loading up some in large field GPPs.
Notable Bats
Buster Posey is 4-for-7 lifetime versus Williams, it may be small, but it is something.
Alex Dickerson has a .377 wOBA versus RHPs this season.
Mike Yastrzemski is posting a .341 wOBA versus RHPs while batting .333 over the last seven with a home run.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Cal Quantrill | Padres | 6 | 6 | 90.2 | 7.44 | 2.28 | 1.19 | 0.281 | 43.20% | 12.00% | 4.57 | 4.61 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 7 | 6 | 125.2 | 6.88 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 0.305 | 36.80% | 13.00% | 5.16 | 5.18 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
Although Zobrist struggles more versus LHPs this is an easy matchup facing a scrub pitcher. Over all the way.
With Hendricks allowing his fair share of runs on the road, and Machado being a decent play most nights, I am going over here as well.
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It’s Wednesday, and along with it we have a shortened slate of MLB split into two. As usual we will focus on the main slate for tonight’s action which features eight exciting games. So I bring you today’s 9/4 MLB DFS Pitching picks.
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On the Defense
Shane Bieber vs. Chicago White Sox
$11,000 FD / $11,500
I am pretty sure everybody is going to have “Bieber Fever” on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate. Despite his checkered past versus the White Sox this season allowing eight earned runs over 12 2/3 innings, this should be the cash game play of the night. The White Sox are still striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs with a sub-par .311 wOBA. With Bieber having a current 11.9 K/9 and striking out batters left and right in every start, even if he was to give up some runs today the strikeout upside alone still could land him the top SP slot on the slate.
Zac Gallen vs. San Diego Padres
$8,500 FD / $9,600
The Padres are 12th in MLB over the last seven days in offense. That is a fact. They also strike out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs, another fact. Gallen has 22 strikeouts over his last 16 innings while only allowing six earned runs, all versus much tougher opponents. His price is a bit high for a SP2 on DK to pair with Bieber, but on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate he sure makes a fine pivot off of him in GPPs.
Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Colorado Rockies
$8,400 FD / $9,200
Despite Hyun-Jin Ryu pitching more like Hyun-Jin Pyu as of late, for the deflated price on FD I will be using him in a few large field GPPs. The Rockies still strike out 22.4 percent of the time versus LHPs, and outside of Coors Field have a .292 wOBA to complement a pathetic wRC+ of 76. I have confidence Ryu rights the ship on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate at home where is ERA is 1.54.
Jacob Junis vs. Detroit Tigers
$7,900 FD / $7,500 DK
The Detroit Tigers are a team you can attack most days. They strike out 27.3 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low .292 wOBA. In case you missed it Junis has 19 strikeouts versus Detroit this season over 19 innings while allowing five earned runs. With the 9/4 MLB DFS slate offering limited choices Junis shines as the clear cut SP2 option and great value play on FD.
On the Attack
Anthony Senzatela vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This is certainly the 9/4 MLB DFS chalk stack of the night. Senzatela has allowed a whopping 33 earned runs over his last 13 1/3 innings. Now he goes into Dodger Stadium to face one of the most powerful offenses in MLB. He is going to take an absolute shellacking tonight.
Notable Bats
A.J .Pollock is 4-for-9 with one home run off Senzatela, but keep in mind he hits lefties better than righties.
Gavin Lux now has a wOBA of .695 versus RHPs with 343 wRC+. It may be a small sample size by why not ride the hot bat before the scouts catch up with him.
Cody Bellinger, if you use your budget wisely, is the top play, and price. With a .434 wOBA versus RHPs over this long season he should feast tonight.
Patrick Sandoval vs. Oakland Athletics
Prior to his great last outing versus the Rangers, Sandoval allowed seven earned runs over 7 1/3 innings. I see clear regression on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate facing an A’s team with a .331 wOBA versus LHPs.
Notable Bats
Matt Chapman has .376 wOBA versus LHPs with a wRC+ of 139 this season.
Khris Davis has a decreased price as of late and is posting a .355 wOBA versus LHPs.
Mark Canha is batting cleanup with little surprise carrying a .342 wOBA versus LHPs. He also has five straight games without a home run, he is due.
Edwin Jackson vs. Kansas City Royals
My sneaky stack on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate is the Royals. The last time he faced Kansas City he only allowed one earned run over 6 1/3 innings while striking out four, this may scare some people off. After watching him get rocked for 12 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Twins in 7 1/3 innings, I am on the attack here.
Jorge Soler is the Nelson Cruz of the Royals. He has a .370 wOBA versus RHPs this season and is batting .348 with three home runs over the last seven.
Hunter Dozier, who in my opinion has the best name for a third baseman in baseball, mashes RHPs to the tune of a .363 wOBA with a wRC+ of 166. He also has two home runs and seven RBI over the last seven days.
Alex Gordon may have slowed down but he is only striking out 14.8 percent of the time versus RHPs and has a solid shot at some real hard contact today.
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
I am going with the over with Junis facing a Tigers team that is leading MLB in strikeouts versus RHPs.
Miguel Cabrera has had some success versus Junis, going 4-for-14 lifetime. The Over is where I am looking.
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Tuesday begat Wednesday, and based on the quality of pitching available for the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks, I kinda wish we stayed with Tuesday, Gerrit Cole scratch excluded. Save for the Dodgers doing us a favor and pushing Clayton Kershaw back an extra day, this shapes to be a meh-like slate of arms.
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My advice: invest in offense. Lots of offense. There have been worse days filled with mediocre to bad pitching across the board, but Wednesday is all about dart throwing for the most part. Fortunately for you, I’m throwing the darts, so sit back, follow the advice and count the long green that hits your accounts early Thursday morning.
No explanation was given as to why Kershaw was pushed back an extra day, but one guess could be that he went about 100 pitches for only the fifth time this season in his last start. That being said, there will be many who will partake in Kershaw in what should be a feast against Marlins hitting.
Kershaw’s K/9 have fallen to “just’ 9.07, but the combination of a 1.94 BB/9 rate and a matchup against the league’s second-lowest scoring offense is a winning pair. Miami is averaging a mere 3.66 runs per game and are tied with Detroit for the Major League worst in OPS+ (78). Starting Kershaw. who has five starts of at least 46 FanDuel points in his last six starts, will eat into your offense, but this is a layup if you’re looking for pitching to amplify your DFS roster today.
Miley hasn’t lost a decision since June 17, having won five straight in a stretch where the Astros have gone 7-1 when he’s on the mound. Over those eight starts, Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one and has produced a 2.21 ERA and .183 OBA since the All-Star Break. If you’re playing an afternoon-only slate, Miley could be the anchor of your staff, as he sports a 2.05 ERA in four daytime starts this season. Never a big strikeout artist, Miley has added two Ks per nine frames this season, going from a pedestrian 5.58 K/9 to a passable 7.55 K/9.
Miley continues to keep the ball on the ground (52.9% ground ball rate) but one of the biggest contributors to his career year has been a sharp reduction in line drive rate. Hitters had a 23.6% LD rate against him last season; those tables have turned to 16.1% this season. With a solid RA9 of 3.25, my bet is on Miley acing the pack.
Bieber continues to make a play for AL Cy Young consideration, having struck out 37 batters over his last 32 innings, a stretch that also includes a pair of complete games and 1.69 ERA. The Indians will be looking for a similar effort from him after their bullpen has been gassed over the first two games of an offensive-heavy series entering an early start time on Wednesday.
While he certainly belongs in the cash game section, there’s mild concerns about Bieber that puts him in the GPP pack. For starters, the Red Sox lit him up for three homers and six earned runs in his only other start against them on May 29, yet he earned the win despite going five innings in a 14-9 slugfest. Bieber can counter that by displaying his 80:8 K:BB rate over 63 innings of daylight play. Whiffs and control are locks here, but Bieber’s 44.4% hard contact rate is a sign that his recent run could come to a brutal halt, especially with the caliber of bats the Red Sox will bring to the table.
After Strasburg, the pitching cliff falls. Trust me, you won’t like the landing. He’s looked human over his last two starts after a run that saw him put up at least 46 FanDuel points in four of five starts that included a 74 FD point gem on July 3. Despite the elevated ERA, Strasburg is already +12 in RAR over last season and his 3.9 WAR puts him on pace to approach his career-best 6.4 from 2017.
In what looks like a sign of Strasburg adjusting to age, he’s thrown his fastball under 50% for the first time in his career (49.6%), relying more on his curve (30.2%) than at any other time. Strasburg is whiffing batters at a 29.2% clip, so whatever he’s doing is working. When it comes to his ERA, Strasburg’s 3.28 FIP tells a more accurate story than his actual 3.72 ERA. I’d consider Strasburg in the cash format, but the Reds have the firepower to make him a risk, which is why he falls in the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks rankings.
Since the Padres made him a fixture in the rotation, Quantrill has ripped off a 1.62 ERA in six starts. The early stretch of walks is a distant memory, as he averages just 2.31 BB/9 overall while also holding batters to a .183 OBA since the All-Star Break, a run that has seen Quantrill’s ERA dip to 0.93. He also eclipsed the 100-pitch mark for the first time in his career while throwing seven shutout innings against the Rockies last Thursday.
Quantrill offers just enough strikeout punch (7.33 K/9) and a 2.93 home ERA, a combination that makes him a good low-risk, high-reward option. The Rays are hitting the ball well on the road (+21 in homers), but Quantrill’s recent run will last long enough to slow down Tampa Bay’s methodical lineup.
This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 14-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Moderate Risk
Dylan Cease is newer to the rotation, coming up for his first start right after the All-Star break. He has struggled with the long ball so far, allowing at least one home run in each of his three starts. He has given up three or more runs to each team he has faced and the teams that he has faced (DET, KCR, and TBR) aren’t exactly the most potent offenses. He carries a 6.19 ERA, 5.41 FIP, and 4.98 SIERA to start off his career in the bigs. The Twins are red hot, slashing to a .346 wOBA, .200 ISO, and 115 WRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. They have scored seven or more runs in each of their last five games.
Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3500 FD|$4500 DK), Nelson Cruz ($4200 FD|$4900 DK), Eddie Rosario ($4100 FD|$4800 DK), and Miguel Sano ($3600 FD|$4800 DK). Differentiate with Jason Castro ($2700 FD|$3900 DK) Luis Arraez ($2900 FD|$4000 DK).
**Low Risk
I rarely find it necessary to go with the presumed chalk on a slate of this size, but I will have plenty of exposure to the Yankees given all the value we have at pitcher today. Andrew Cashner carries a 4.19 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 5.02 SIERA. He has had a pretty good year for his standards, but regression reared it’s ugly head in his last start and I think he continues to sink tonight. Despite his success, he has struggled with right handed batters. They are slashing to a .350 wOBA, .519 SLG, and .327 OBP. He has allowed 36 earned runs and 13 home runs over 54 innings pitched to them. New York Yankees batters are slashing to a .344 wOBA, .187 ISO, and 114 WRC+ against right handed pitching recently. If you’re looking for a value stack, this is not the place.
Preferred Plays: Gleyber Torres ($4000 FD|$4900 DK), Edwin Encarnacion ($4500 FD|$5500 DK), Aaron Judge ($4700 FD|$5500 DK), DJ Lemahieu ($4200 FD|$5400 DK) and Didi Gregorius ($3700 FD|$5100 DK). I also love Mike Tauchman ($3000 FD|$4800 DK) for value. Cameron Maybin ($2500 FD|$3700 DK) will mostly go overlooked I would imagine. He’s a nice way to differentiate in large field tourneys if you’re playing multiple lines.
**Low Risk
Anibal Sanchez provides us a weakness against left handed power and that isn’t going pan out well for him against the Dodgers this evening. The Dodgers have been mashing right handed batting over the last two weeks, slashing to a massive .399 wOBA, .306 ISO, and 152 WRC+. These are averages that simply cannot not be ignored. Anibal struggles quite a bit to left handed batting, allowing them to slash to a .342 wOBA, .494 SLG, and .338 OBP. He has allowed 23 earned runs and nine home runs over 38.2 innings pitched against them. Anibal Sanchez’s xFIP of 5.20 suggests he is due further regression. I believe the Dodgers obliterate this guy.
Preferred Plays: Max Muncy ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Joc Pederson ($3600 FD|$4700 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4700 FD|$5600 DK), and Alex Verdugo ($2900 FD|$4000 DK).
vs. RHP Dario Agrazal (PIT): 5.25 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Pete Alonso ($4100 FD|$5000 DK), Michael Conforto ($3500 FD|$4400 DK), and Jeff McNeil ($4300 FD|$5700 DK). Dominic Smith ($2300 FD|$4300 DK) and Robinson Cano ($2700 FD|$3900 DK) for value.
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Scott Engel and Jason Mezrahi get into the full MLB schedule on the 7/24 MLB DFS Podcast. There are different slates to consider today and all games are covered. It won’t be easy to find quality pitching in the early games.
Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman face off in the featured pitching matchup of the night. Noah Syndergaard and Patrick Corbin are also worth strong consideration. Who should you choose?. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered, just listen to the 7/24 MLB DFS Podcast below.
Julio Teheran pops out as a prime value selection on any site. The guys also discuss Adam Wainright and their favorite stacks. Scott and Jason help you save some salary on the 7/24 MLB DFS Podcast/
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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Moderate Risk
J.A. Happ has had some issues this season to say the very least. He rolls into tonight’s game carrying a 4.86 ERA, 5.11 FIP, and 4.64 SIERA. Those are some of the worst averages Happ has ever posted over his career. Happ has struggled vs. both sides, allowing batters to slash to a .335 wOBA, .476 SLG, and .320 OBP. The only drawback I can see is Happ’s home/road splits. He has been significantly better on the road with batters slashing to a .286 wOBA, .380 SLG, and .281 OBP. Given how much power Minnesota is showing recently, I highly doubt Happ will have a dominant road performance. The Twins are slashing to a .316 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 95 WRC+ over the last two weeks
Preferred Stack: Max Kepler ($3700 FD|$5200 DK), Eddie Rosario ($3800 FD|$5100 DK), Nelson Cruz ($4100 FD|$4400 DK), Miguel Sano ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), and Mitch Garver ($3600 FD|$5100 DK)
**Low Risk
We have a small sample size to go off of with Barria, but there is no doubt he has struggled. He carries a 7.36 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 4.33 SIERA over 33 innings pitched. Barria is allowing batters to slash to a .383 wOBA, .541 SLG, and .361 OBP. He has allowed 27 earned runs and six home runs thus far. The Dodgers are absolutely hammering right-handed pitching right now. They are slashing to a massive .430 wOBA, .368 ISO, and 172 WRC+ over the last two weeks.
Preferred Plays: Max Muncy ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Joc Pederson ($3600 FD|$4600 DK, and Cody Bellinger ($4700 FD|$5800 DK). Alex Verdugo ($3000 FD|$4200 DK) and A.J. Pollock ($3700 FD|$4400 DK) for differentia
vs. RHP Brad Keller (KCR): 5.60 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Josh Donaldson ($4000 FD|$5100 DK), Freddie Freeman ($4000 FD|$5300 DK), Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4300 FD|$5700 DK), and Ozzie Albies ($3400 FD|$4300 DK).
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