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Week 5 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones took down the Week 3 Sunday Night Showdown in his second tournament takedown in two days!

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here

I want to start off this article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entries in these contests. If you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top seven guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys. 

Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary. 

That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my picks below.

The NFL DFS Week 5 Thursday Night Showdown Picks

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Flex Options:

Listed in order of preference with prices factored it

  1. Demarcus Robinson
  2. Travis Kelce
  3. T.Y. Hilton
  4. Jacoby Brissett
  5. Harrison Butker
  6. Sammy Watkins
  7. Mecole Hardman
  8. Eric Ebron
  9. Marlon Mack (Jordan Wilkins if he is out or limited)
  10. LeSean McCoy
  11. Zach Pascal
  12. Darrell Williams
  13. Nyheim Hines (upgrade if Mack out or limited)

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Week 5 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones took down the Week 3 Sunday Night Showdown in his second tournament takedown in two days!

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here

I want to start off this article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entries in these contests. If you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top seven guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys. 

Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary. 

That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my picks below.

The NFL DFS Week 5 Thursday Night Showdown Picks

MVP: Tyler Lockett ($11,000 FD)

Why Tyler Lockett? He is the number one receiver on the Seahawks and is cheaper than all three of the Rams receivers. Seems pretty clear to me that he is underpriced and in a better situation than Kupp, Woods and Cooks. Last week the Rams got shocked when Jameis Winston came to L.A. and threw for four touchdowns (two to the speedy Chris Godwin) and won 55-40. I know that one or two of the Rams wideouts will get in the end zone, but I am also counting on Lockett to find paydirt as well. He should be able to get in a big play, or two, and exceed his value at a higher rate than the Rams’ big three.

NFL DFS Flex Options:

Listed in order of preference, with price factored in.

  1. Cooper Kupp ($13,000 on FanDuel) He has over 100 yards in three straight games. He also has three touchdowns in the same time frame. He is Goff’s favorite guy to throw to. In his last four games he has been targeted 15, 12, 9, and 10 times. He will not be the reason you lose.
  2. Russell Wilson ($15,000) I like him for the same reasons I like Lockett. The Rams showed their weakness last week in the passing game and I look for Wilson to exploit it. I also like his rushing upside. In Week Two he ran for two touchdowns. Hopefully he can vulture one away from Carson if we are paying up.
  3. Brandin Cooks ($12,000 FD) These receivers tend to rotate in production. Last week it was Kupp and Woods. This week I’ll rank Cooks ahead of Woods simply because he is cheaper with the same opportunity. He has not scored since Week Two but has been targeted 21 times in the past two games.
  4. Robert Woods ($13,500 FD) You are going to want two Rams’ receivers. Woods is ranked third simply because of price.
  5. Jared Goff ($14,500 FD) If we are playing two Rams receivers then we are playing Goff with them.
  6. Chris Carson ($12,000 FD) The Rams have allowed five rushing touchdowns so far this season, which is about middle of the pack in the league. They have done well as far as total yards allowed to running backs, ranked ninth in the NFL. Carson should get at least 15 carries and the first RB looks when in the Red Zone.
  7. Todd Gurley ($11,500) He is not getting the same amount of touches he did when he was in MVP form, but his price is very reasonable. He is the seventh highest priced player on a showdown slate. That is pretty good value for Gurley.
  8. Will Dissly ($10,000 FD) The new fan favorite in Seattle has four touchdowns in three games. The matchup is tougher this week, but he should still be counted on to get his fair share of passes from Wilson.
  9. Greg Zuerlein ($9,500 FD) Rams Kicker
  10. DK Metcalf ($8,000 FD) Boom or bust WR2 for the Seahawks
  11. Jason Myers ($8,500 FD) Seahawks Kicker

Punt:

  1. Gerald Everett ($8,000 FD) Priced a little high for me but he is still the Rams’ TE1.
  2. Tyler Higbee ($6,000 FD) I don’t expect him to be as highly targeted as has was last week, but he should still get a few opportunities.
  3. Rashaad Penny ($7,500 FD) Appears to be over his hamstring issue and should complement Carson. I wouldn’t play them in the same FanDuel lineup.
  4. Jaron Brown ($6,500 FD) Seahawks WR 3, don’t play with Moore (below)
  5. David Moore ($5,500 FD) Punt WR, should be the fourth Seahawk receiver on the field.
  6. Malcolm Brown ($8,500 FD) He would need to vulture a Gurley TD, especially at that price. Anything can happen on single game slates..

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These are both of my favorite receivers who their respective teams. MKF is 1 point PPR. I think both get around around 10 targets, both get close to 100 yards and both get in the end zone. I will take the overs on Kupp and Lockett.

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Week Three should have paid dividends if you followed the Week Three NFL DFS GPP article at Win Daily. Lets stay hot and get right back into NFL DFS GPP action for Week Four. For those of you who still prefer cash formats, be sure to check out my article for your Week Four NFL DFS Cash Games.

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If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks!

Top Game Stacks

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (53.5)

No surprise here, the Kansas City Chiefs are a part of the highest total on Vegas’ board yet again in Week Four. I’d love to say this game is a fade for me due to Matt Patricia and the Lions’ slow-paced run-first offense, but I cannot.

Kansas City is matchup proof and simply scores 30+ points at will. This should force Detroit to play faster than they’re used to and likely leads to a game where Matt Stafford has to throw the ball 40+ times to stay competitive. There are a handful of good plays in this game that you can stack up in DFS.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 on DraftKings)
  • Travis Kelce ($7,200)
  • Sammy Watkins ($6,700)
  • Mecole Harman ($5,100)
  • Demarcus Robinson ($5,200)

Detroit Lions

  • Kerryon Johnson ($5,400)
  • Kenny Golladay ($5,900)
  • T.J. Hockenson ($3,300)Hockenson is back in play this week
  • Matthew Stafford ($5,500)
  • Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,400)

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (47.5)

I love the over in this game as I project it to be a shootout from the start. This should be one of our fastest paced games on the slate and ownership doesn’t appear to be anything we need to worry about here. McCaffrey will always be popular (especially when there are bye weeks) but he’s a player you probably just have to lock-button this week in your NFL DFS GPP and cash game formats.

Get exposure on both sides of this game! I’ll most likely be fading Greg Olsen (as I only liked him in Week Three for the matchup). Please note, we may see a week where DeAndre Hopkins sits around 10% ownership…

Carolina Panthers

  • Christian McCaffrey ($8,800)
  • D.J. Moore ($5,600)
  • Curtis Samuel ($4,600)
  • Kyle Allen ($5,200)
  • Carolina Panthers DST ($2,300) Extremely contrarian GPP DST target.

Houston Texans

  • DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)
  • Deshaun Watson ($6,400)
  • Will Fuller ($4,500) – Way too cheap. Could be a slate breaker.
  • Jordan Akins ($3,100)
  • Duke Johnson ($4,200)

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (48)

Every week it seems like the Arizona Cardinals are drawing my interest in some form for an NFL DFS GPP. This week, I like the idea of stacking the Seahawks’ passing attack and then adding a Cardinal or two on the other side. I’ll have some exposure to Cardinals’ stacks in my MME formats, but nothing for my main lineups.

Seattle Seahawks

  • Russell Wilson ($6,100)
  • Will Dissly ($3,600) – Should be extreme chalk, but Arizona continues to get destroyed by opposing tight-ends. Just make it easy on yourself and play him.
  • Tyler Lockett ($6,300)
  • DK Metcalf ($4,800)
  • Chris Carson ($5,700) – Absolute smash spot, but his recent fumbles are an obvious issue.

Arizona Cardinals

  • David Johnson ($6,800)
  • Christian Kirk ($5,100)
  • Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600)
  • Kyler Murray ($6,000)People are going to shy away from Kyler now that he is priced up to $6,000… If you like this game’s chances of shooting out, this is a great week to play Kyler.

Top Team Stacks

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams currently have an implied team total sitting around 29 points – the third highest on the slate. Since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have brought in Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles, they’ve have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs, but are very beatable via the pass.

Vegas may not be dead on with this implied point total (I personally like the Rams over) but they certainly don’t think the Buccaneers will slow down this Los Angeles offense. The Rams are at home (where Jared Goff thrives) so lock in this Rams passing attack.

  • Jared Goff ($6,300)
  • Brandin Cooks ($6,200)
  • Cooper Kupp ($6,500)
  • Robert Woods ($6,100)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Jared Goff
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: James White
WR: Cooper Kupp
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Will Fuller
TE: Will Dissly
FLEX: David Johnson
DST: Carolina Panthers

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As we roll into Week 3 NFL DFS, we’re going to try someoff-the-wall plays in GPPs, including one TE who’s been very quiet during the firsttwo weeks. There’s our usual group of cash game plays for your NFL DFS lineups– as well as some contrarian specials who could explode for monster gametotals.

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Week 3 NFL DFS Tight End Cash Game Plays 

 

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. DET

FD ($6,900)        DK ($5,700) 

Theres not too many standout cash game plays in Week 3 NFL DFS among the TEs, as many of them look more like GPP plays. But with injuries to Alshon Jeffrey, DeSean Jackson and TE Dallas Goedert (who’s dealing with a calf injury), it makes sense that both Ertz and WR Nelson Agholor will draw more looks from Carson Wentz. When I look for upside plays at TE I search for opponents with LB issues, and the Lions unit is having some problems with both injuries and inexperience. Most importantly for cash games, however, is a boatload of targets. Ertz saw 16 targets in Week 2 against Atlanta and he’s much cheaper than Travis Kelce, who’s more of a GPP play this week.

George Kittle, SF vs. PIT

FD ($6,600)        DK ($5,600) 

Normally I’d prefer Kittle in large-field tournaments for NFL DFS, and last week’s relative dud (3-54-0 on just three targets) doesn’t help make my case. But the Steelers defensive unit is best attacked with TEs and possession wide receivers and Kittle is the most reliable option for Jimmy Garoppolo in a game that the 49ers should win. Last week I suspected that offensive ball control meant lots of looks for Kittle, but they really didn’t need him that much. We’re still waiting for the big offensive breakout and Kittle had two touchdowns called back on penalties Week 1, so there’s some hope on that front. He’s one of the team’s better red-zone options despite the lack of a TD through the first two games, and I think he’ll change that on Sunday.

 

Week 3 Tight End NFL DFS — GPP Plays

Travis Kelce, KC vs. BAL

FD ($8,000)        DK ($7,100) 

For many reasons, I like Kelce for cash games, especially if you’re not spending up for RBs and WRs. But I really like him for GPPs. As the most expensive TE and a facing what could be a tougher on-paper matchup against the Ravens, his ownership may be slightly down from last week. Kelce has double-digit receptions and two-TD upside every week, and there’s not much opposing defenses can do to stop him with all the weapons that Patrick Mahomes has at his disposal. I could see Kelce setting season highs in receptions, yardage and TDs in this game and being the linchpin on some tournament-winning lineups.

O.J. Howard, TB vs. NYG

FD ($5,800)        DK ($3,800) 

The first two weeks have frustrated Howard’s DFS supporters, and it’s safe to say the 2019 season is off to a poor start for the athletic, big-bodied TE who carried plenty of pundit buzz into Week 1. But playing time wasn’t the problem on Thursday, with Howard finishing second to just Chris Godwin in snaps among the Buccaneers skill position players. Fellow tight end Cameron Brate was on the field for just 18 snaps, so Brate just isn’t really cutting into Howard’s production. The main issue is targets, or a lack of them — which Bruce Arians said would change in the coming weeks. There’s no better time for a great bounce-back spot facing the Giants in Week 3, when the squeaky wheel should get some much-needed grease.

Evan Engram, NYG at TB

FD ($6,400)        DK ($5,200) 

We’re a couple weeks into the 2019 season and the Giants corps of receivers is an absolute disaster, though they could be getting Sterling Shepard back since he’s out of the concussion protocol. Engram, however, is still the Giants most reliable receiver excluding their star RB, and I’d even be willing to use him in cash games if they weren’t starting rookie Daniel Jones at QB this week. As bad as Eli Manning has been, he’s maintained a solid rapport with Engram the past couple of seasons. Jones will look to establish a similar relationship early and often, but there’s some inherent risk in this offense. Engram is a fine GPP play who won’t be chalky.

T.J. Hockenson, DET at PHI

FD ($5,500)         DK ($3,500) 

As we round out our GPP options, we can look for plays that buck the trends of recency bias, and since Hockenson disappointed in Week 2, he’s a good place to land. The Lions TE hauled in just one catch for seven yards on three targets against the Chargers, but I’m willing to throw out that performance, since every Lions passing game option took a backseat to WR Kenny Golladay and his seemingly effortless dominance. Hockenson is an exciting rookie with tons of upside on Sunday against an Eagles team that allowed Vernon Davis to run and jump over several defenders to find the end zone in Week 1. I’m expecting big things in Week 3 from him, and since the price isn’t an oppressive one, I’ll have some shares.

Week 3 Tight End NFL DFS — Value and Punt Plays 

Darren Waller, OAK at MIN

FD(5,400)         DK ($3,300) 

Waller entered Week 2 as a popular play after a huge Week 1, seeing another high-usage game (95% of team snaps, seven targets and 6-63-0 in the loss to the Chiefs in Week 2). So he’s flourishing in the Jared Cook role in this Raiders offense, and should continue to compete with Tyrell Williams for the team lead in targets every week. While his Week 3 matchup against the Vikings and their capable defensive unit (Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks and company) is a tough one, there’s plenty of reasons to believe Derek Carr will be peppering Waller more than anyone else. The Raiders have their work cut out for them in a possible game script which could ultimately benefit Waller more than in the first two weeks. He’s cheap and he’ll be on plenty of my GPP lineups – where I don’t mind pairing him with Kelce again with one of the two occupying the flex spot.

Blake Jarwin, DAL vs. MIA

FD ($4,500)        DK ($2,900) 

Full disclosure: I’m a Cowboys fan and I love Blake Jarwin, so I’mnot giving up on him despite his quiet Week 2, when he had just one catch for22 yards.  He should have plenty of opportunitiesto score against Dolphins in Week 3, and if the Cowboys get out to a big lead,I doubt they’ll have Jason Witten on the field a lot. Jarwin could easily graba handful of catches and a couple of scores as Dak Prescott passes the time pickingapart the decimated Dolphins secondary. The athletic and reliable pass catcher isclose to the minimum salary on both sites, and he should see more than his usualshare of red zone looks on Sunday.

Additional GPP options:

Greg Olsen, CAR at ARI (FD $6,100,DK $3,700) 

Vance McDonald, (FD $5,900, DK $4,300)

Austin Hooper, ATL at IND(FD $5,800, DK $3,600)

Eric Ebron, IND vs. ATL (FD $5,700, DK $3,800)

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Week 3 NFL DFS — DST Cash Game Plays 

Dallas Cowboys (DAL vs. MIA)

FD ($5,000)        DK ($4,300) 

The Cowboys are 21.5 point favorites at home facing a Dolphins team that has scored just 10 points through the first two weeks. While a lot of the focus has been on the Dolphins defensive woes (their negative-114.7 percent DVOA through two games is the worst of any team since at least 1986), they rank last in both offensive and defensive DVOA on the season, and they’re starting Josh Rosen this week over Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Cowboys pass rush could be better and they have some defensive holes, but they’re the top defense in consensus rankings and make for a fine cash game play.

New England Patriots (NE atMIA)

FD ($5,000)        DK ($3,800) 

I didn’t think we could see a point spread larger than the oneabove, but the Pats are 23-point favorites at home over the Jets. The Jets havean offense than went from mediocre, right past bad, and straight into terriblewhen they lost Sam Darnold and then watched in horror as Trevor Siemian had hisankle disassembled on prime time during Monday Night Football. They don’t havetheir full complement of receivers and won’t be able to do much to stop aPatriots defense that’s looked excellent through the first two games. I’d beusing the Pats in cash games and GPPs, where they could be somewhat ignoredthanks to the existence of the Cowboys-Dolphins matchup.

Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs.OAK)

FD ($4,200)        DK ($3,300) 

I’m not going to have too many shares of the Vikings in cash gamesbecause I don’t usually plug in DST last, but if that’s your strategy and youend up with less than the requisite funds for the Cowboys or Pats, they’re adecent option at home facing a dinged up Raiders offense with plenty ofquestion marks. If you arrive at Minnesota in your builds, don’t click off ofthem.

Week 2 NFL DFS — DST GPP Plays

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TBvs. NYG)

FD ($4,300)        DK ($2,900) 

The Giants are bad, and they might be getting worse. I’m wary ofstarting the Bucs in cash games because it’s a unit with its share of problems,but they draw a dream matchup at home facing Daniel Jones in his first NFLstart. They’re only $2,900 on DK and should have a handful of sacks and turnoversfacing a bad Giants offensive line.

Seattle Seahawks (SEA vs.NO)

FD($3,700)         DK ($2,900) 

I expect the Seahawks defensive line to make life very difficult for Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints – who are still reeling from the loss of Drew Brees, the NFL’s all-time passing yardage leader. It’s a difficult environment playing in Seattle, and with some of the Seahawks new acquisitions making their presence felt, there’s lost of opportunity for turnovers and sacks in what could be a lopsided victory for the home team. I’m surprised the spread is just 4.5 points.

Green Bay Packers (GB vs.DEN)

FD($4,500)         DK ($2,800) 

The Packers have a much-improved defensive unit and draw arelatively conservative Broncos offense that doesn’t put up too many points. GreenBay has given up just 19 points through its first two games, so they’recertainly an option in GPPs, especially since they’re playing at home.

Week 2 NFL DFS — DST Punt Plays 

Carolina Panthers (CAR atARI)

FD ($3,700)        DK ($2,700) 

This Carolina defense might be a little too risky in cash games,because the Cards and their Air Raid offense can put points on the board andhave some potent weapons in David Johnson and Kyler Murray, so I’d prefer youpunt them in GPPs. But let’s face it: The Panthers are way too cheap and shouldregister a handful of sacks and a turnover or two.

Cincinnati Bengals (CIN atBUF)

FD ($3,400)        DK ($2,400) 

The Bengals are viable in GPPs but might be the better cash game punt considering the injuries to the Bills RB corps. Expect a consistent pass rush from Cincy and the chance for some big defensive plays.

Photo of O.J. Howard by Airman 1st Class Ryan Grossklag

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Week One in NFL DFS GPP tournaments had it’s ups and downs. The stacks I had with the Kansas City Chiefs and Sammy Watkins obviously paid off nicely, but my main builds were centered around that San Francisco @ Tampa Bay game (sigh). We can talk about what could have been in Week One until we’re blue in the face, but it’s best we just get right back into NFL DFS GPP action. For those of you who still prefer cash action, be sure to check out my article for your Week Two NFL DFS Cash Games.

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If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks!

Top Game Stacks

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams (53)

New Orleans Saints – The Saints currently have an implied total sitting around 25 points on the road in Los Angeles. They are my favorite team to stack this week in NFL DFS and I was quite surprised when I saw my first draft of projected ownerships. I’ll try to keep an eye on ownership projections and update this article throughout the week, but at the moment, it looks like everyone is going to flock towards the KC/OAK game.

Having said that, this game as a whole could be a huge leverage spot for your NFL DFS GPP builds in Week Two.

  • Alvin Kamara
  • Michael Thomas
  • Drew Brees
  • Ted Ginn Jr.
  • Tre’Quan Smith

Los Angeles Rams – Unfortunately, I took a stance on Rams’ Running Back, Todd Gurley for my main NFL DFS GPP build in Week One. He looked incredibly efficient when he did get the ball, but something is obviously up with McVay’s trust in Gurley’s health. This week, I’ll stick to just targeting the Rams’ passing attack and maybe sprinkle in Gurley or Malcolm Brown in a MME style NFL DFS GPP.

  • Jared Goff
  • Robert Woods
  • Brandin Cooks
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Todd Gurley

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (46)

Pittsburgh Steelers – I have a feeling this game has sneaky shootout potential. I love targeting Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense when they’re playing at home. The Steelers have an implied total of 25 points which isn’t anything that pops off the board, but it is Top 10 on the main slate in DFS this week. I like this game as a lower owned pivot in an NFL DFS GPP for Week Two.

  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Juju Smith-Schuster
  • Donte Moncrief
  • James Washington
  • James Conner

Seattle Seahawks – Despite only winning by a point, the Seahawks stuck to the running game in Week One against the Cincinnati Bengals, where they were a 10-point home-favorite. Russell Wilson only threw the ball 20 times… If the Steelers can right the ship and start scoring points like they did in 2018, Russell is going to have to drop back to pass a helluva lot more than 20 times.

When Wilson is in a pass-heavy game-script, he tends to have very solid fantasy production. In 2018, when Wilson threw the ball 25 times or more, he averaged 20.15 DraftKings points. That probably isn’t going to win you a NFL DFS GPP, but if he’s around five percent ownership (likely even less), I’ll take a risk and bet that he does some damage with his rushing ability and produces one of those 30+ fantasy point ceiling-games.

  • Russell Wilson
  • Tyler Lockett
  • Chris Carson
  • DK Metcalf

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (52.5)

Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs and Raiders’ game is going to be chalk heaven. We have a high total that includes the best offense in the NFL (KC) and the most underpriced offense in DFS (OAK). Combine those two things and you will have a very popular game stack. I’d love to say you can fade this game to avoid high ownership, but I’d be lying to you.

Do I think you need to be overweight on this game? No. But, you’re going to need to get exposure to this game in some form.

  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Travis Kelce
  • Sammy Watkins
  • Mecole Hardman
  • Damien Williams
  • LeSean McCoy

Oakland Raiders – We’ll keep it simple here: The Raiders are all underpriced. I’d get shares of some Raiders regardless of who they were playing this week simply for the salary relief. They happen to have a great, pace-up matchup against the Chiefs… so that certainly doesn’t hurt the cause. Keep in mind, they will be incredibly popular in NFL DFS GPP and Cash Game formats.

  • Tyrell Williams
  • Darren Waller
  • Josh Jacobs
  • Derek Carr

Top Team Stack

New England Patriots – The Miami Dolphins currently look like a mid-major NCAA football team. The Patriots will remember what happened last time they went to Miami for a football game (the Miami Miracle) so I fully expect them to punish the Miami Dolphins this time around. My only concern is that Bill Belichick lays off the gas once the game is out of reach due to respect for longtime friend and colleague (and Miami Head Coach), Brian Flores.

If Flores wasn’t the coach of Miami, I’d take the Patriots to win by 50.

  • Tom Brady
  • Josh Gordon
  • Sony Michel
  • Julian Edelman
  • Phillip Dorsett
  • James White
  • Damien Harris (if he suits up, this could be a minimum-priced GPP flyer; in hopes the Patriots want to get him some live-game reps).

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Jared Goff

RB: Saquon Barkley

RB: Devin Singletary

WR: Robert Woods

WR: Cooper Kupp

WR: Tedd Ginn Jr.

TE: Darren Waller

FLEX: Alvin Kamara

DST: Houston Texans

Ben Roethlisberger Featured Image by SteelCity Hobbies

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It’s finally Week 1 of the NFL and I’m looking at what can sometimes be the last two pieces you plug into your NFL DFS lineups – tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs). There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s dive right in!

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Week 1 Tight End NFL DFS Cash Game Plays 

ZachErtz, PHI vs. WAS

FD($7,100)         DK ($6,100) 

Ertz caught the second-most passes of anyplayer last year (116) and saw 156 targets. He’s in a great Week 1matchup and is a consensus top 3 TE in every possible format. There may beample reasons to enumerate the many attributes of some of the remaining TEs in thisrundown, but I shouldn’t cloud your mind with too many competing thoughts in mycash game recommendations. Ertz is top dog this week in cash.

EvanEngram, NYG at DAL

FD($6,400)         DK ($4,800) 

Engram is the best receiver available on the Giants and they are going to inundate him with targets against the Cowboys are just middle-of-the-road when it comes to defending opposing TEs. The third-year TE had a TD in each of his games vs. Dallas in 2018 and offers a little more safety than Travis Kelce and O.J. Howard, with just a tad less upside.

Week 1 Tight End NFL DFS GPP Plays

TravisKelce, KC at JAX

FD(7,800)         DK ($7,100) 

The tough matchup willkeep a chunk of the field away and that’s what we want for a guy with this muchupside – especially in a game with a 51.5 total. I’ll tolerate some risk at myTE spot because there’s a shot to play both – and I’ll have a lot of exposureto a Kelce-Ertz combo on both sites, since they could both score three TDs andmake incredible value just under the price point of stud RBs.

GeorgeKittle, SF at TB

FD($7,300)         DK ($6,600) 

Traditional ownership inGPPs dictates that the better value with the lower risk gets taken, so Kittlemakes perfect sense as a GPP pivot from Ertz, who’s cheaper on both sites.Kittle is a one-man offensive powerhouse who can take over a game with 200 yardsand score 2-3 TDs, so he’s a fine GPP play in Week 1 facing the relatively weakBucs defensive unit.

Hunter Henry, LAC vs. IND

FD ($6,100)          DK (3,900)

There’s just a ton of upside to Henry’s 2019 season, and it all starts in Week 1 facing the Colts. He’s blessed with a capable, adventurous QB in Philip Rivers (who has a history of torrid love affairs with his TEs), caught eight TDs as a rookie in 2016 (the fourth-highest mark for a rookie tight end in NFL history) spent a year in an expanded role while out-targeting Antonio Gates, and then missed the entire 2018 regular season with a torn ACL. Low projected ownership and a prime matchup make him a solid GPP play this week.

Week 1 Tight End NFL DFS Punt Plays 

MarkAndrews, BAL at MIA

FD($5,400)         DK ($3,000) 

Andrews emerged as a viable TE option in 2018 and promises to once again be a useful safety valve for Lamar Jackson. There’s not an overwhelming sense of limitless upside with Andrews from a season-long perspective (and I think most folks who drafted him would be happy with Top 10 numbers), but the Dolphins LBs are an inexperienced unit at risk of giving up huge numbers to opposing TEs. Andrews is a cost-effective way to fit in a bunch of solid RBs and WRs, though you’ll be assuming a considerable amount of risk not looking to the obvious top TEs.

DelanieWalker, TEN at CLE

FD($5,400)         DK ($3,500) 

Walker makes for an interesting GPP play at just $5,400 on FD, and he qualifies as a punt for his low salary on DK. Walker probably has a little more upside than Andrews but the three-time Pro Bowler makes plenty of sense as a lower-risk option heading into a Week 1 contest that might be a little more lopsided than expected and have the Titans playing from behind. Walker played just one game in 2018 (dislocated ankle) and will look to rebound with a big Week 1, and Jonnu Smith isn’t much of a threat  to his targets.

Additional GPP/Punt options:

Will Dissly, SEA vs CIN (FD $4,000, DK $2,900)

Tyler Eifert, CIN at SEA (DK $3,100)

Darren Waller, OAK vs. DEN (FD $4,800, DK $3,000)

Week 1 NFL DFS DST Cash Game Plays 

BaltimoreRavens (BAL at MIA)

FD($5,400)         DK ($3,800) 

The Ravens lost some defensive starters in LB C.J. Mosley and DL Willie Henry, and there’s been some question as to the effectiveness of their pass rush, but they remain a perennial powerhouse and there’s no easier team to pick on in cash games than the Dolphins. Since Miami is a team in turmoil, Baltimore is the consensus top defense in the weekly rankings and there’s plenty of value to be found throughout the rest of the roster, so it’s no problem looking at the Ravens this week, even as the highest-priced DST on both sites.

PhiladelphiaEagles (PHI vs. WAS)

FD($4,600)         DK ($3,600) 

There’s plenty of appeal to both the Ravens and this Eagles unit in GPPs, since there’s plenty of opportunity to differentiate our lineups elsewhere. But the goal of cash games is to limit risk and maximize cost – and there’s just not a lot of difference cost-wise between the top and bottom defenses. Philly is still running the Jim Schwartz system of constant pressure and this group is a fine blend of experience and youth. They are deep, they are talented, and they are home in Week 1 to face the paltry Redskins. Don’t overthink it.

Week1 DST GPP Plays

LosAngeles Rams (LAR at CAR)

FD($4,400)         DK ($3,200) 

There’s a considerable drop after the top couple ranked DSTs this week, so they’ll be my only cash game recommendations, but the Rams are a formidable unit facing a much more potent offense. Whether Carolina’s Cam Newton is 100 percent is the main factor in the Rams making most of my GPP builds, and if I’ll look to some of the following options as a pivot. With that said, the Rams are a consensus Top 12 defense this week and the team’s offensive prowess sometimes forces opponents into silly mistakes (30 takeaways last season). This is where you can capitalize in GPPs. They offer relatively low ownership because of the higher price, but they’re still a few bucks cheaper than the elite DSTs, so they make sense as last-piece fit.

SeattleSeahawks (SEA vs. CIN)

FD($4,500)         DK ($3,100) 

Plenty of question marks surround the newer pieces (ZiggyAnsah and Jadeveon Clowney) in the Seahawks front seven and All-Pro safety EarlThomas is out the door – so DFS players could look at this unit with sometrepidation and steer clear in Week 1. But the Bengals are a team without itsstar WR for the first few games and I know that Scott Engel would beannoyed if I didn’t acknowledge his squad’s upside in this cushy spot and justhow good these linebackers and lineman can be in 2019.

ClevelandBrowns (CLE vs. TEN)

FD($4,200)         DK ($3,100) 

The Browns are a couple years removed from being a laughingstock, and this play might not be all that contrarian with the DST’s cost down. But Cleveland had 31 takeaways last season (17 INTs and 14 FRs) and should be an improved unit in 2019. The Titans aren’t too much of a threat to score 25+ points and a Nick Chubb/Browns DST game script could be a decent starting point in GPP builds.

NewYork Jets (NYJ vs. BUF)

FD($4,200)         DK ($3,100) 

The Bills and Jets defenses both feel a lot like the sameamount of risk and upside, so this should be a fun Week 1 contest to watch. It’llbe even more fun if you click the Jets into your DFS lineups and they force abunch of turnovers from Josh Allen and the dubious Bills offense. The Jets unitis a risk, because they’re susceptible to the big play, but the flip side is thepositive variance they offer. I’ve seen them as high as second on some Week 1 rankingsand as low as 30th – the definition of a GPP option.

Week1 DST Punt Plays 

LosAngeles Chargers (LAC vs. IND)

FD($4,000)         DK ($3,000) 

The Chargers are cheap, they get to the opposing QB, andthey have plenty of upside facing a Colts team without Andrew Luck. I’mcomfortable going here in Week 1 for this affordable cost.

SanFrancisco 49ers (SF at TB)

FD($3,700)         DK ($2,200) 

The 49ers are loaded with talented defensive lineman but have a weak LB corps, and they don’t stand out as particularly safe facing the Bucs in Tampa Bay. But if you’ve got to make it work with just a few bucks left in salary cap, they make plenty of sense. The biggest area of concern for the 49ers this season is +/ in turnovers, where they ranked last in the league at -25 in 2018. The addition of Nick Bosa, however, promises to change some of that and Week 1 is a fine place to take advantage of the cost savings this improving unit offers.

TampaBay Buccaneers (TB vs. SF)

FD($3,500)         DK ($2,200) 

The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and offer a similar risk-reward scenario in Week 1 facing the 49ers. I could see easily see pick-sixes for both teams and a 20-17 final score, which would be an acceptable outcome given the variance at DST and our aim at providing a modicum of upside without overwhelming risk.

Zach Ertz featured image via Jason Peters.

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