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Tonight’s Thursday night match up between the 49ers (8-6) and Titans (9-5). The 49ers come in to this one riding a 2 game winning streak trying to solidify their playoff spot. They will be without Elijah Mitchell for a third straight game as was already ruled out. The AFC South leading Titans look to pad their lead tonight with a win. One of the things they have riding for them tonight is the possible return of star wideout and favorite target of Ryan Tannehill, Mr. A.J. Brown.
Let’s dig in and see if the we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.
Jimmy Garoppolo – 239.5 Passing Yards – More
Only the Buccaneers have given up fewer rushing yards on the year than the Tennessee Titans. The Titans own one of the best rush defenses in the league. Because of that, I expect the 49ers to have to pass more in this game. In order for them to win tonight, they’ll need to have a ton of success through the air and for Garoppolo to have one of his better games of the year. Thankfully, the Titans are nowhere near as good against QB’s as they are running backs.
They’re in the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards against. Monkey Knife Fight is giving us a goal of 239.5 yards tonight and it’s a number that Garoppolo has hit twice in the last 3 weeks. The passing game for the 49ers normally starts with George Kittle. That said, I expect Garoppolo to use his wideouts a bit more tonight as the Titans are one of the best teams in the league against tight ends.
Against wide receivers? They are one of the worst as only the Vikings have given up more yards to wide receivers. While I do still love Kittle in this game, I’m looking for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to be the biggest beneficiaries of the passing game tonight. I’m going with More side for Garoppolo tonight.
Ryan Tannehill – 205.5 Passing Yards – More
This is the side that is trickier in my opinion. Tannehill has not been overly sharp over the past few weeks. He’s in one of the worst stretches of his career as he’s been under 200 yards passing in 3 consecutive weeks. The common denominator in those games is that he’s been mostly without his top two targets in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. While Jones is no longer the receiver he used to be when he was with the Falcons, he’s still an imposing force that’s very capable of catching balls.
In A.J. Brown we have someone that has back-to-back seasons of 1,000 receiving yards and if it wasn’t for injures he’d easily have a third. With both of them potentially back tonight, Tannehill will be back to having 2 of his main targets. If they are back and healthy tonight Tannehill should be able to get over the 205-yard mark that Monkey Knife Fight has given us tonight. As of writing this, they are expected to play so I’m going to side with the More. Should something happen today where neither plays, Tannehill under 200 yards for a fourth straight game seems like a no-brainer and I’d go with the Less Side.
Jeff Wilson – 64.5 Rushing Yards – Less
With Eli Mitchell out tonight Wilson will again be the top running back for the 49ers. Last week against the 24th ranked rushing defense of the Falcons he was able to gain 110 yards rushing on 21 carries. Tonight’s a much tougher task as he’s facing one of the best rush defenses in the Titans. I highlighted it above when talking about Garoppolo that only the Buccaneers have given up fewer rushing yards than the Titans.
Although the 49ers will try to establish the run early to help with their passing game, I just don’t think they’ll have much success against a team that has given up 65 rushing yards to running backs just once over the past 5 weeks. Less side for me here.
D’Onta Foreman – 54.5 Rushing Yards – More
The Titans are expected to get some big weapons back tonight with the returns of Jones and Brown. If that does happen it actually makes me like D’Onta Foreman even more than I already do. A more spread-out offense only helps to make it a more effective offense too.
In the last 3 weeks, Foreman has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice. While I don’t expect him to get quite up that number tonight, I do expect him to crush the 54.5 yards that Monkey Knife Fight has picked for us. I’m going with More here.
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Good luck tonight and hope you cash!
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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The Bills are slight favorites in this game, and Josh Allen sticks out as the player from both teams sporting the highest fantasy upside – though the recently effective running of both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss may eat into Allen’s rushing TD total the rest of the way.
The main concern is that the 49ers neutralize Allen much in the same way the Broncos did Patrick Mahomes last night, and for that reason there’s no need to exclusively focus on the Bills QB. But there’s reason no obvious pivot on the 49ers – as the Bills defense has LB Matt Milano back and has shored up their injury issues in the secondary. I’d probably be willing to attack the Niners less-than-stellar secondary with Stefon Diggs and sprinkle in a couple of 49ers players, but salary is going to be problems if you play the CPT spot straight this week. I personally love rookie WR Gabriel Davis, though I may have more shares of Cole Beasley this week. I could see him confounding the Niners out of the slot.
The multi-headed 49ers running attack has a clear lead dog in Raheem Mostert – one of the toughest and most physical runners in the NFL. He returned to his normal role in a game against the Rams last week, and we’ll haver to pay attention to the gameday inactives to see if the 49ers sit any of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson – all of whom could have a significant role in cracking this showdown based on the their low salaries and upside should an injury or game script (the 49ers having to play from behind) come into play.
Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are elite options for the 49ers, and I might be limiting my 49ers ownership to one or both of them in some builds – but I do have some abiding interest in Ross Dwelley, who has 8-12 point upside even if he gets a handful of targets. Jordan Reed may be the preferred fantasy TE, but Dwelley logs more snaps and the disparate pricing ($5,000 for Reed to just $800 for big Ross) make Dwelley a bit of a value. There’s even room for a sneaky Nick Mullens stack on DK with one of the big WRs and either Dwelley or Reed. But I’ll likely avoid both TEs on FanDuel.
The Bills might have a tougher time connecting with their TEs this week, as the Niners should do a good job defending Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft.
Tyler Bass and Robbie Gould are both viable on both sites, though using either at the DK captain spot could provide ample salary relief and plenty of value if they kick a couple of 50-yarders.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers are in play and we could even see a big defensive play or two that changes the whole landscape of the showdown,
DO: Count on a better game this week from Stefon Diggs. Last week was an anomaly and I expect something closer to his usual 15-20 points.
DON’T: Forget about Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. Both rookies have enormous upside in any matchup.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
This past Wednesday, running back Raheem Mostert sent shockwaves through the NFL by requesting a trade. Well, shockwaves isn’t totally accurate but work with me. It’s July and there’s not much happening in the NFL. What is important is Mostert was the back most thought was the one to own from the 49ers. That’s especially important when the 49ers were the second-best rushing team in the league last year with 144 yards per contest. The San Francisco 49ers running back room could look quite different by the start of the year.
For our purposes, let’s pretend Mostert gets dealt or is at least in coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse. After all, Shanahan has proved he can make it work with many different backs. I’m not sure Mostert really sees this demand work out for him. This is mostly relevant for dynasty leagues, but the question is – what now? Who do we think the 49ers turn to if Mostert isn’t in the picture? There’s actually some pretty intriguing options for San Francisco and it could be rewarding to stash some players right now.
Tevin Coleman – This is the most obvious name that’s going to see traction right away. According to the NFFC ADP, Mostert is hovering around 48th overall while Coleman is at 111th overall. That gap is likely going to close in a big way if you happen to draft soon. If we include the playoffs, Mostert accounted for over 1,000 yards, 12 touchdowns and 207 touches. It’s naive and foolish to think Coleman would walk into all that work. Could he take 50 percent of it? Even just 500 yards and 5 touchdowns would be a significant bump to Coleman, who was at 194 touches himself.
Looking through the dynasty lens, this is a perfect time to sell high. It’s important to remember that Mostert hasn’t actually been traded yet. While the 49ers running game is super fantasy friendly, Shanahan spreads the wealth among his backs. Just last year saw three backs have at least 120 rushing attempts and 14 receptions. There’s no real reason to think that changes this year, even with the departure of Matt Breida to Miami.
A target that I may try to acquire is Kareem Hunt. Not only is he going to be a flex option in the new-look Cleveland Browns offense, he’s a league winner if Nick Chubb were to get hurt. Additionally, he’s a 26 year old free agent at the end of this season. The worst the other owner can do is say no.
Slavon Ahmed and JaMycal Hasty
Both of these players went undrafted but that doesn’t always mean there’s no path to relevance even in a rookie season. Now, I’m quickly coming around to being underweight on rookie players in redraft leagues this upcoming season. To partially quote the movie Moneyball – “It’s incredibly difficult,” to go from college to the NFL. This year is going to have added layers of complication from the effects of COVID-19.
Reading up on draft profiles points you to Ahmed having some knocks on him for his vision. Interestingly enough, the 49ers clocked in as the fifth-best run blocking offensive line according to PFF.com. Ahmed was also rumors to be drafted in the mid-rounds so it’s a bit of a surprise he went undrafted. Perhaps his 4.6 40 time was a knock but the 49ers quickly snapped him up. He’s certainly worth a taxi squad spot in deeper leagues to see how this plays out.
Likewise, I personally have Hasty stashed on multiple rosters. One aspect that really helps him make an impression is he played special teams while at Baylor. That’s a massive help to get an undrafted player on an NFL roster. Hasty never had a large role as far as a workhorse (check to Ahmed, who carried the ball 188 times last season). Hasty did average over 5.2 yards per carry the past two years and caught at least 25 passes in the past three seasons. Either one of these players could emerge as a serious player in the San Francisco 49ers running back room.
If Jerick McKinnon comes back from the NFL/fantasy graveyard and is relevant this season, does an analyst get credit for loving him two years ago? I’m just asking for a friend. In seriousness, McKinnon is a forgotten name at this point. He hasn’t touched the football in an NFL game since the 2017 season. Tearing his ACL in 2018 cost him that season and 2019 was lost to a lengthy recovery.
The 49ers kept him by signing him to a new contract that only carries a cap hit of $2.9 million. It’s hard to know if he has anything left at this point, but in 2017 there was plenty of buzz for McKinnon. He totaled 94 receptions in the previous two seasons in a part time role with Minnesota. I can’t say that I’m stashing him at this point, but it would be smart to have ears to the ground on this one.
I would also be pretty surprised if the San Francisco 49ers running back room brought in any free agents at this point. Some logic would say that Devonta Freeman would be a fit, given the history with Shanahan in Atlanta for the Falcons. Considering Freeman wanted a decent-sized contract at last report, that seems like a pass from the 49ers.
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NFL page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.
There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.
Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.
Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.
Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.
Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.
49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.
Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.
Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!
Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.
Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1? This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1. Indy probably overvalued at this point.
Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line. Take it at 3 maybe. This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff. I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5. Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).
L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much. This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn. Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy. Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.
Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points. Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF. Too many weapons for Arizona. Game will be close enough.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place. Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints. Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd. Let’s see if the line moves. If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog. It’s a stay away for now.
Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay. Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5. Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.
Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule. Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles). 14-2 last year. Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU). Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU. Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).
Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division). People falling asleep on them. Great defensive front. They get their QB back. Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.
Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division. Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6. Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push. Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.
Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?). Under is a good bet here. Schedule is tough. Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.
Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it. Won 4 of last 5 games last year. 3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing. Pass rush should be good. Improved OLine. Good OC in Pat Shurmur. Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE. I believe in Drew Locke.
Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.
Ravens at 7 to 1 – Best team in the NFL. 14-2 last year. 4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric. Absolutely loaded up in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year). Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).
Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft. Defense is suspect but these are solid odds. I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.
Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB. Juju healthy. BigBen healthy. Stout defense. Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington). Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.
Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency. Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE. May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated. And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old. Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South. I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.
Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year. Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there. No help for ARod on offense. Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson. Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle. 15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s
Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did. Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.
Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team. Niners get almost everyone back. Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw. Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU. Team is loaded and getting value at +115. Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.
Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.
Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.
Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.
Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.
Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5
Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9
I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!
Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!
Welcome to my preview video for the Super Bowl DFS game. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for the big game. Are you ready for some Super Bowl DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings. I will also include some of my favorite prop bets! Check out the full article.
It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($12,600) puts on an absolute clinic. Before the playoffs, in the divisional playoff game and championship game Mahomes scored (41 and 35 points respectively). He is clearly the best fantasy quarterback in the game but that is why he is the most expensive player.
As for Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,000), he is the seventh-most expensive player in the game on DraftKings. The narrative here is that Garoppolo is entering this game very similar to how Ryan Tannehill was. Basically, the Titans were just relying on the run game and Tannehill had thrown for just 160 yards total on 31 passing attempts. In the championship game alone Tannehill went 21-31 for 209 yards and two touchdowns.
For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,000) are the cheaper of the two on DraftKings with the 49ers ($3,600) coming in slightly higher. Both of these defenses can get after the quarterback in passing situations. The current over/under on sack totals in the game is 4.5 sacks. I like the over there.
Damien Williams ($9,800) is the third-most-expensive player on DraftKings. I tend to favor rostering pass-catching running backs in the captain spot due to their path to touchdowns. Williams has been getting all the carries and snaps in the Chiefs backfield since returning from injury so I like him a lot. He has nine touchdowns in five career playoff games. With the 49ers heavy zone scheme and a low percentage of blitzes Williams should see plenty of targets in the backfield. The 49ers have allowed the lowest ADOT this season to opposing quarterbacks (6.8).
Additionally, the only team that played more zone than the 49ers did this season were the Los Angeles Chargers, who the Chiefs played twice this season. In those games, the Kansas City running backs averaged 6.5 receptions with the lead back getting at least four receptions.
The 49ers have one of the best fullbacks in the NFL. The 49ers this season had a 54% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. They also ran it 32% of the time (#1 in the NFL). The Kansas City defense versus that personnel grouping allowed a 51% success rate and 5.5 yards per carry. Kyle Juszczyk ($1,800) is sneaky on DraftKings at his price for Super Bowl DFS.
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