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San Diego Padres

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

With today’s slate we have a little bit of everything. Some great pitching with solid match-ups and strong offenses facing some poor pitching.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($10.8k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Robbie Ray draws a fantastic match-up tonight with Mariners coming to Buffalo. Ray is one of my favorite GPP pitchers in the league right now. Every time out he has double digit K potential.

Over his past 30 day he’s been especially dominant with a 36% K rate and just a 2.58 xFIP. With Ray on the mound there’s always the potential for the occasional long ball as he’s given up 4 in his last 28 innings of work. That said, with the match-up tonight I’m not overly worried as the Mariners have really struggled this season. Against lefties they have a 27% K rate to go with a wOBA that is below .300.

What has me sold on Ray tonight is that the Marines really struggle against sliders. Outside of Crawford and Moore, the entire projected lineup tonight has a whiff rate over 40% to left handed sliders. This is a great spot for Ray tonight and I’m all in.

Brandon Woodruff ($11.4k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Another pitcher that draws an absolutely beautiful match-up is Brandon Woodruff. While he’s pricey, he’s facing a team that has struck out almost 36% of the time over the past week. That is significantly higher than any other team as the White Sox come in second at 29%.

Woodruff, like Ray, has been dominant over the past 30 days. His K rate is greater than 31% and his xFIP is sitting at 2.68. Peralta was able to strikeout 8 Cubs in just 6 innings of work. With Woodruff being a more efficient pitcher than Peralta, I have no doubt in my mind that a replication of last night’s outing is the floor for Woodruff. While I’m siding with Ray tonight due to the $600 savings, Woodruff is a very close second.

Jose Urquidy ($9.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Orioles put up a big number last night. They do that from time to time. Most of that was against a suspect bullpen and a pitcher a couple years past his prime. Tonight the Orioles will be facing Urquidy who has really turned things around over the past 30 days.

While his xFIP on the year is 4.54, over the past 30 days it has come down to 3.5. His last outing was one of his best of the year, going 7 innings with 6 K’s and no runs. Who was it against? This same Orioles team in a much better hitting environment.

While it’s always risky to use a pitcher facing a team just 5 days later, Urquidy’s pitch mix leads me to believe we should expect a similar outing. Urquidy mostly throws sliders to righties and it’s a pitch that the Orioles have not done well against. Look for Urquidy to continue his stretch of 40 point outings.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Cleveland Indians vs. Jose Urena – Urena is one of my favorite pitchers to attack as he’s really struggled this year, and even more so of late. Over the past 30 days his xFIP is sitting at 7.29 compared to 5.37 on the year. Nothing is working for him right now.

While he’s normally a groundball pitcher, he’s been giving up a lot more fly balls of late. In his last 14 innings of work he’s given up 4 homers. For a groundball pitcher, that’s quite a bit!

The three guys that really standout in this lineup that have excelled at hitting the sinker are Jose Ramirez ($3.9k), Eddie Rosario ($3.1k), and Bobby Bradley ($3.5k). All three have ISO’s over .230 and low whiff rates to the pitch. I’d recommend including Amed Rosario ($2.6k) to the stack as he’s cheap and hits near the top of the order.

San Diego Padres vs. Tony Santillan – So far Santillan has been able to skate by with limited damage. Regression is going to happen and I do believe it happens tonight against the Padres powerful lineup.

Here’s why I think regression is going to happen. In his first 13 innings of work Santillan has a BB/9 of 5.27, a FB rate of 51%, a LOB % of 95.7, and a hard hit rate of nearly 38%. So he’s walking guys, giving up a ton of fly balls, and getting hit hard. With metrics like that it’s only a matter of time.

Padres present a worst case scenario for him as they’ve been pretty good against righties. They have a .729 OPS and a wOBA of .318. We’re talking about a small sample size, but he’s been especially bad to lefties as they have a 50% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. Cronenworth ($3.3k), Hosmer ($2.7k), and Grisham ($2.7k) should highlight any Padres stack you roll out tonight. Tatis ($4.7K) is always in play too, just very expensive.

Oakland Athletics vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Love the A’s to put up a big number tonight. With Folty on the mound we know that at least 1 A’s player will hit a homer. It’s almost a given as Folty is giving up a homer once every 3 innings. That’s a pretty high rate, highest of any pitcher on the slate.

His match-up tonight against the A’s is not an easy one. The A’s on the year have been really good against righties. They’re hitting for power with a .174 ISO and an OPS of .726. Folty is giving up a ton of fly balls to lefties this year so I’m going to center my stacks around both Tony Kemp ($2.4k) and Matt Olson ($4.2k). Both guys profile extremely well against Folty. If Moreland ($2.5k) is in the lineup he too profiles very well tonight.

I didn’t write up the Angles but Ohtani ($4.3k) and Walsh ($3.4k) should both homer tonight against Taillon.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather tonight as there’s a chance of storms in most of the games on the east coast. This should be a fun slate though as we have both solid pitching in great match-up’s and really poor pitching that will be heavily exploited.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/26 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue, but this is a risky slate for cash games and I’d highly recommend sticking to GPPs and lower-cost single-entry.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

The options are not great. We really can’t look to Julio Urias right now with him maxing out at 5 Ks in each of his last five starts (perhaps it’s the Bauer Effect rearing its ugly head) and Frankie Montas cannot be trusted facing a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. I’m a Yankee fan, which makes recommending Eovaldi in this spot especially tough, but the price is reasonable for a guy who has 10K potential against the Bombers and their 24.7% K rate (25.2% against RHP). Facing this lineup can be a dangerous spot for ANY pitcher, so I don’t think this slate portends well for large cash game investments, and there is a stiff wind blowing out toward the monster as well. But given what he did against the Yanks on June 4 in the Bronx (6.0 IP, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 ER and 46 FD points), he’s probably got as much upside as anyone. Adam Strangis makes mention of him as an option in the 6/26 Starting Rotation piece today, so if you need further information, that’s always a good source.

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

It would be great if he could somehow approach the 100-pitch mark, in which case he could easily pay off this bargain price. Lamet might have a lower floor than some of the other high-dollar options, but the upside is there at his still-discounted price and he’s coming off his first win and 7Ks. Again, I can’t stress enough how risky this entire slate is, but Lamet’s reward could slightly outweigh the downside. He should get the necessary run support for another W, and there’s an outside shot he crests the 5.0 inning mark tonight and possibly gets 6.0 in to qualify him for the QS bonus.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

We’re going to have to take some chances on this slate, and rolling out the enigmatic lefty hurler at Fenway might be the key to unlocking the slate. Or, and hear me out, you can stack against the guy in a few GPP lineups to hedge your DFS approach. He’s regained some of the effectiveness his changeup and curveball once had in his early days, and using them to keep these Boston hitters off balance. His 3.62 FIP is among the lowest on the slate, we know he’s got as much upside as anyone in these four games, and the Boston projected total is pretty high, so we know he won’t be popular.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

The Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are all viable options in the spend-up category, but let’s look a little more closely at the Padres, who are red-hot at the plate. Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($4,700) is destroying baseballs right now (4-5 with 3 HRs and 65.8 FD points last night) and I don’t see any reason to not continue using him with Manny Machado ($4,300), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300) and either Eric Hosmer ($2,700), Tommy Pham ($3,100) or even Trent Grisham ($3,000). This lineup is filled with speed and power — the biggest contributors to offensive success in DFS, so make sure you get exposure to the Friars tonight.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

The Giants match up extremely well against Montas, who’s been struggling a bit lately. The top five hitters include a bevy of cheap bats who have enormous upside tonight: LaMonte Wade ($2,700), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,300), Brandon Crawford ($2,800). They could work in conjunction with the more expensive Dodgers or Padres, especially if you’re fading the Yankees-Red Sox.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

First of all, don’t freak out. I know I recommended Montgomery, and while there’s no way I’d stack the Sox and use Monty in the SP slot, we’ve got to build lineups assuming more than one narrative today, and it’s possible the Sox can give us what we need in a stack while Montgomery gets us 30-40 FD points behind a barrage of Ks. The hitting conditions seem favorable, and while Monty is generally a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, the fly balls he gives up tend to go pretty far. If Michael Chavis leads off he’s a great bargain option at $2,300, and while lefty vs. lefty Alex Verdugo ($2,900) doesn’t get me excited, the projected 3-7 hitters are all in play: J.D. Martinez ($4,100), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Rafael Devers ($3,900), Kike Hernandez ($3,300) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Wednesday – 6/16

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 nice sized slates. A 6 gamer at 2:10 and an 8 game main slate.

While we have more pitching options than we’ve had over the last couple of days, some of them aren’t in the best spots and will carry risk. We do however have some clear cut stacks that we’ll want to use.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds– Peralta will be my top pitcher on the early slate. While the match-up is a tough one, Peralta has already proven a couple of times this season he can handle the Reds lineup. He struck out 13 Reds between 8 innings of work in the 2 starts. Peralta has had a great campaign so far this year. He has a 37% K rate this year and it’s not often we can get a pitcher with this type of K rate less than $10k.

Tarik Skubal ($8.5k) vs. Kansas City Royals – At the start of the year, I would have picked the Royals as one of my top stacks. Skubal has really come into his own over the past month and a half.

Let’s take a look at what he’s done over the past 30 days. He has a 38% K rate which over the same period is the top mark of any pitcher on the early slate. His xFIP is 2.73 which is also the top mark over that time period. This was all done against lineups that normally do well against lefties. He’s faced the White Sox twice in that stretch. Facing the Royals is never a sure thing as they’re stingy, but I really like Skubal’s chances of a strong outing today.

Brady Singer ($7.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is far from a safe pick but one that may work in our favor as we try to get the expensive bats in. Tigers are a tough team to get right when pitching against. I thought Minor was a sure thing last night and he wasn’t.

That said, chasing K’s against them is still a thing as they’re striking out at a 27% clip against righties. Singer isn’t a high strike out pitcher but he’s cheap and gives us bat flexibility. If we can get 5-6 K’s from him today and a QS he’ll by far pay off his salary.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Washington Nationals vs. Chase De Jong – De Jong has been absolutely brutal on the year. He has a 6.50 xFIP through 3 starts. He’s giving up a ton of contact to both sides of the plate so we don’t really need to worry about platoon splits.

His ISO to both sides of the plate so far this season are both over .300. Kyle Schwarber ($3.5k) has been on a pretty nice run over the past week and with his shift to the lead-off spot will be a main target of mine. Trea Turner ($4.1k) and Juan Soto ($4.4k) also make fine additions to this stack.

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland – Padres have, for all intents and purposes, underwhelmed this season vs. lefties. While they aren’t striking out much against lefties, they’re also not really hitting the ball for power either.

Kyle Freeland may be what gets them going. Freeland hasn’t pitched much this season as his year started at the end of May. The sample size that we’ve seen this year has been brutal though. In his last 9 innings of work he’s given up 13 runs. For a ground-ball pitcher, he’s given up a lot of homers. 30% of his fly balls this year have left the park.

Padres disappointed last night scoring only 4 runs. There’s a very real chance they surpass that total in the first inning today. Freeland’s main pitch to righties is his change-up. Both Pham ($4k) and Tatis ($5k) have strong ISO’s against this pitch from lefties.

Lefties have also crushed Freeland this year with a .412 ISO and a .582 wOBA. That brings back Hosmer ($3.9k) and Grisham ($4.3k) into the conversation. Look for the Padres to put up a typical Coors numbers today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Ryan Yarbrough – I haven’t gone to the White Sox vs. a lefty in a while but this match-up is setting up really well for them. Yarbrough hasn’t been bad this year. He’s been pretty good and his last 2 outings have been excellent.

The reason I’m going here though is that he strikes out batters from the right side far less. His K rate vs. lefties is 27% but it drops down big time to 18% against righties. White Sox today will more than likely have 9 guys bat from the right side of plate.

Two guys I’m going to try to prioritize are the really cheap bats of Adam Engel ($2.2k) and Yermin Mercedes ($2.7k). While all the righties should be in play today, those guys specifically will help you fit in the big bats from the Padres.

I do also like the Athletics quite a bit. I debated putting them ahead of the White Sox due to the Rays never really giving up a huge number. Canning has been a reverse splits and is giving up far more hard contact to righties than lefties. While I expect the lefties to do well here also, if playing the A’s I’d prioritize getting Canha ($3.5k) and Chapman ($3.2k) into your stacks.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

Something to always keep in mind for early slates is that lineups could get a little funky. What is a good match-up early, may change to bad match-up once lineups are released. Don’t get married to your lineup until the teams start releasing theirs.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.2k) vs. Chicago Cubs – The only con that I have for Degrom is that there’s a very good possibility he doesn’t go past 6 or 7 innings. With Degrom though, he can put up a big number in that type of short outing. Last time out he threw 80 pitches in 6 innings and still scored 58 FD points. He’s the best pitcher in the game with a great match-up tonight. There’s not much else that needs to be said.

Clayton Kershaw ($10.2k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – If you aren’t using Degrom tonight, a good second option would be Kershaw. While the Phillies are mostly healthy nowadays, they still have a lineup that strikes out.

On the year they are striking out more than 27% of the time to lefties. With Kershaw not being an ordinary lefty, we know that there is some upside with Kershaw and his 30% K rate for the year. Another thing going for Kershaw tonight is that the Phillies get a serious park downgrade with the game being in LA and not Citizens.

Aaron Civale ($9k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Should we expect another 67 point performance out Civale tonight? Nope, probably not in the cards. More often than not though, Civale has been living in the 40 point or greater neighborhood this year and that’s probably a more realistic target.

While the Orioles lineup has been hot and cold over the past few weeks, it’s been more cold when a strong righty is on the mound. Tonight we have a strong righty. My build tonight will be tailored around Degrom and Kershaw but if you’re looking to save a bit Civale is a good third option.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Garrett Richards – There was a stretch earlier in the year where Richards looked to be back to his younger self. Since then it’s just been a downward trend in his performance with his last outing being his worst.

That downward spiral should continue tonight with a match-up against the Braves. Braves have been dominant vs. righties this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Freeman ($4.2k), and Riley ($2.8k) all have wOBA’s over .380 against righties this year. If you want to add a cheap piece to the puzzle Almonte ($2.2k) has also crushed right handed pitching, albeit in a much smaller sample.

Houston Astros vs. Jordan Lyles – Astros will probably be the chalk as they get to face none other than Jordan Lyles. Lyles has a near 5 xFIP on the year with a 47% hard hit rate. Lyles has actually been worse to righties this year with a .229 ISO and 50% hard hit rate.

With his pitch mix of mostly fastballs to lefties both Alvarez ($3.7k) and Tucker ($3.4k) should have great nights. On the right hand side the pitch of choice is the slider for Lyles. While I like Altuve ($4k) and Bregman ($3.5k), it’s Gurriel ($3.1k) that I’ll target the most as he’s the cheapest of the 3 and has a .228 ISO against this pitch.

Minnesota Twins vs. Justus Sheffield – I never seem to get the Twins right, especially Donaldson. I’ll play him all week, then when I don’t play him he gets 2 homers. I think I’ll get them right tonight.

Sheffield has had an up and down season so far. He’s had a couple of good outings, but then will have a down outing. There’s been no consistency from him. Tonight he’s taking on a tough opponent as the Twins have been really good against lefties. They have a .772 OPS and a .199 ISO.

Twins will throw out a bunch of righties tonight and on the year Sheffield is giving up a 50% hard hit rate to that side of the plate. Both Donaldson ($3.6k) and Sano ($3.2k) have a bunch of success against the sinker which is Sheffield’s pitch of choice to righties. If you need a cheap bat since you’re going with Degrom, Jeffers ($2k) is still min priced and opens up some salary relief for you.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap Up

Two of the best pitchers of the last few decades are on the mound tonight. Enjoy using them in your lineups and enjoy watching them pitch.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/15

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

At first glance the pitching tonight is not much better, but after looking at the data we have a few pitchers that are in decent spots. We also have my 3 favorite pitchers to pick on – the law firm of Harvey, Happ, and Chi Chi.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Mike Minor ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Tigers teed off on Keller last night. Tonight they face a much more daunting task as they face off against Mike Minor. Over the past 30 days Minor has been very good. His K rate is nearly 30% and his xFIP and ERA pretty much align in the mid 3’s.

His match-up with Tigers is a good one. While the Tigers have shown flashes of being a half decent offense recently, they’re still striking out a ton. They have a 30% K rate vs. lefties with a .123 ISO. Both those numbers indicate they have a rough time against lefties.

Minor has already faced the Tigers twice this year with a combined 17 K’s. Really like the spot here for Minor and his less than $9k salary will leave us room to get some of the bigger bats that will be in play.

Taijuan Walker ($8k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Walker has become one of the steals of the offseason. He’s shown flashes of brilliance this year with his best outing coming against the Orioles last week.

His K rate over the past 30 days is hovering around 27% and his xFIP is below 4. So we are getting a pitcher with a more than halfway decent K rate at only $8k.

His match-up isn’t half bad either. On the year the Cubs are striking out at around the 25% mark. While they have some guys with pop, they’re still a very weak lineup compared to years past. Vegas has the Mets as a big favorite today. I’m going to agree with them and try to work Walker into my lineup.

Hyun Jin Ryu ($8.5k) vs. New York Yankees – The Yankees have really underwhelmed against lefties this year. We’ve seen them get dominated by the likes of Matz, Skubal, Yarbrough, and Hill.

Ryu has had a couple of difficult outings in a row. In his last 2 outings he’s only had 4 K’s. He faced really tough lineups in those game, facing off against the White Sox and Astros. This is a great bounce back spot for him.

He faced the Yankees earlier this year and walked away with 7 K’s in 6 innings of work. While facing the Yankees is never 100% safe, attacking them with lefties this year hasn’t been a bad strategy. I wouldn’t go all in with Ryu, but this is a good spot for him.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Much like last night, we have a healthy amount of offenses in really good spots today. I made the decision early on yesterday to fade the Coors game. I didn’t like the match-up that either team had. Today’s a different story.

The Padres have a great match-up vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez. He’s arguably one of the worst pitchers in baseball. They are priced up for the match-up though. Tatis ($5k) is the most expensive you’ll typically see a batter on FD. You really couldn’t have asked for a better match-up for the Padres in Coors.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Brett Anderson – The Reds get to take on a sinker ball pitcher today in Anderson. We know they have a handful of guys in their lineup that excel vs. this pitch.

Castellanos ($4.3k), Stephenson ($2.6k), and Suarez ($3.1k) all have ISO’s over .200 against this pitch from lefties. This should be a tough day for Anderson who has been pretty bad this year. He has a 5.19 xFIP this year and a 50% hard hit rate. Reds are going to be one of my main targets tonight.

Seattle Mariners vs. J.A. Happ – When Happ is on the mound the batters from the other team automatically enter my player pool. He’s been absolutely awful this year. His xFIP is almost 6. We’re halfway through June. His xFIP being that high is not based on a bad outing or two, but a full season worth of bad outings.

I’m going to focus on the righties here because that’s really where Happ struggles. His FB rate vs. righties is 48% and his hard hit rate is 40%. He’s giving up a ton of bad contact to righties. The guys you want to look at are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.6k). If you also need a cheap 2B, you could do a lot worse than the spot that Moore ($2.4k) is in. Mariners tonight will make a nice compliment to your Reds or Padres stack.

Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Harvey – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, no one is giving up homers at a quicker pace than Harvey has over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 in just 15.1 innings of work.

To start the year it really seemed that Harvey had figured out a new way to pitch. If we look at recent outings, we know that was just a mirage. Harvey is giving up a 44% FB rate to lefties and a 40% hard hit rate. I’m going to focus my attack of Harvey today on the middle of the lineup since that where the lefties sit.

JRam ($4.1k), Eddie Rosario ($2.8k), and Bradley ($3.4k) should have a field day today. Well at least in the first inning since I don’t think Harvey lasts longer than 3-4 innings.

Another gas can that we can attack today is Tyler Anderson vs. the Nationals. Think Zimmerman ($2.6k) and Treat Turner ($3.6k) as Anderson is far worse against righties. Giants lefties vs. Martin is also an exploitable spot. Martin is giving up a 60% hard hit rate to lefties. Brandon Crawford ($2.9k) is way too cheap for that match-up and what he potentially brings to the table every game. Same could be said for Yastrzemski ($2.7k).

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Just like last night, there’s a ton of offense to go around tonight. Pitching, IMO, is a bit better tonight as the above average pitchers are in better positions to succeed.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, May 3

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Hey Everyone, It’s Jared filling in for Brian today. Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks and Pivots. We have a nice sized 10 game slate tonight on DK. My goal today will be to walk you through the slate and provide a path to the winner’s circle.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Pitching today will not be for the faint of heart. The best pitcher on today’s slate is in a less than ideal spot for him. Tyler Glasnow ($10.3k) gets to take on the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Not a team that you normally want to face off against. But as I’ve said in the past, strikeout pitchers tend to find their K’s.

Glasnow does not come without caution. For the season the Angels have been pretty good against right handers. They own a low K rate of 21.1%, a very respectable OPS of .772, and a wOBA of .333. Not numbers that you normally want to attack. But this is Tyler Glasnow who has been for all intents and purposes this season, elite.

Outside of Ohtani and Walsh, this is a pretty right hand dominant lineup. Dating all the way back to 2019, Glasnow has a k rate of more than 35% vs. righties. This season, that number is above 41%. While at some point regression will come to that number, what we do know is that Glasnow dominates righties. Not only is he K’ing them at a higher rate than ever, he’s also really limiting hard hits when they do put the ball in play. His hard hit to righties this year is a whopping 15%.

The main secondary pitch that Glasnow throws is his slider and he’s throwing it 30% of the time. Here’s why I’m not as scared of Trout tonight as I normally would be. Trout’s whiff rate against the slider is nearly 32%. If there’s a kink in his armor, it looks to be that pitch. There will always be risk attacking Trout and his friends. But the setup for Glasnow tonight looks pretty good.

SP2, this should be fun… Do we go with Daniel Lynch ($4k) and give ourselves $4,550 to play with per batter? Let’s look to see what the Indians have done vs. lefties this season. K rate – 20.2%, OPS – .659, wOBA – .292. So they aren’t K’ing much, but they aren’t doing much of else either. At 4k, do you need a ton of k’s? Nope. Not at all. He’s literally priced less than most batters tonight.

Or do we go with Shohei Ohtani ($7.6k) vs. the Tampa Bay Rays which still leaves us $4,100 on bats. The Ohtani situation will be something that needs to be monitored until there’s clarity about his role tonight. He was hit by a pitch in his arm but stayed in the game and said his arm felt better as the night went on. If he plays, I’m going to use him as my SP2.

He’s been great this year with a 37% k rate, while also giving up a ton of ground balls. He gets a matchup with a Rays team that has had trouble with righties this year. They’re k’ing at a near 25% clip and a rather low OPS of .667. Being able to spend $4,100 per batter while also having 2 elite pitchers is not something that happens often. I’m hopeful that Ohtani takes the mound. That said, if there’s a player that warrants some extra TLC, it’s going to be Ohtani since he’s such a versatile and meaningful player.

Now that we have the pitchers out of the way, where do we go for bats? The most glaring spot to start takes us to Chi-Town and The Los Angeles Dodgers. Weather and ownership will be concerns here. The weather here looks pretty bad tonight and there’s a decent shot of a PPD. If this game does indeed happen, the match-up is great. Hendricks has had an up and down season. He’s had 2 quality starts (both against Milwaukee), and 2 absolutely horrific starts, giving up 7 ER in each. With everyone on this lineup being affordable outside of Betts, this is going to be a popular spot. Fade at your own risk.

With the chalk stack out of the way, where else do we look? I’m going to go against the grain a bit and go with the San Diego Padres. I think Colorado will be popular. A big concern with this game is that you have two extreme ground ball pitchers. Marquez at 57.5% and Sanchez at 60.3%. While this could be a high scoring affair, there’s an equally good chance that it will be a low scoring game with the 2 GB pitchers.

San Diego has started out slow against lefties this year. It’s only a matter of time before they breakout. Tyler Anderson isn’t a bad pitcher. He’s actually been pretty good this year. My lean to the Padres is due to his pitch make up. He throws a 91 mph fastball which is a pitch that both Fernando Tatis ($5.9k) and Manny Machado ($5k) have had a lot of success against. Lefty on Lefty crime? His main pitch to lefties is a the cutter. While it’s a small sample size, it’s shown to be a pitch that Trent Grisham ($5.6k) can handle coming from southpaws. This is going to be an expensive stack. But it’s also one that will potentially go overlooked with the Dodgers in play and a game in Colorado.

The final team I also like today is the Minnesota Twins. They are facing off against Dane Dunning who is giving up hard contact at a rate of 44.8% this season, while not missing many bats. His main pitch is the sinker. Up and down the lineup, the twins have ISO’s north of .230 against that pitch. The Twins have a .746 OPS and a .323 wOBA against righties this season. This is a great spot for them too.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

Tonight’s slate has a ton of question marks. Does the Dodgers/Cubs game play? Does Philly/Mil game play? Will Ohtani pitch? Will he hit? Does Story play tonight after getting hit on the finger yesterday? You’ll need to keep tuned to info throughout the day. A lot will rely on whether Ohtani pitches.

4 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: Tuesday Tennis!

6 years ago

written by

Cash with the Flash Best Bets had an interesting day on Monday. Or was it an interesting night? Either way, Monday Night Football returned, and Cash with the Flash Best Bets had a couple of plays for you to consider.

The NewOrleans Saints and Denver Broncos failed to cover the spread, but Cash with theFlash hit the OVER on the Saints game and the UNDER on the Broncos game.

Cash with the Flash Best Bets went 2-2, leaving us with a 3-4 record for Week One of the NFL season.

Cash withthe Flash Best Bets isn’t the slightest bit upset about it and is lookingforward to the NFL season.

Losing the side on the Saints game wasn’t that big a deal because it was a good game and highly enjoyable to watch. Cash with the Flash Best Bets had the theory and the flow right; we were just unlucky a highly rated Saints defense couldn’t keep Deshaun Watson and company from scoring so many points in their own house.

The Raidersopened their season with a win and good for them. After the drama surroundingAntonio Brown, it was good to see them shake that monkey off their back even ifit did cost us.

Cash withthe Flash Best Bets missed that one completely. That was unfortunate and we shouldhave left the side bet alone and stuck with the total because we all knewneither offense would be very good.

I honestlythought the Broncos were a better defensive team, especially after hiring VicFangio. Maybe they are but they weren’t last night and its something to keep aneye on as the season progresses.

Cash withthe Flash Best Bets will do better next time.

Meanwhile,we have a couple of interesting options for today and Cash with the Flash BestBets like what we see for Tuesday!

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AlisonVan Uytvanck(-150) over KristenFlipkens (+125) 9:00 pm ET

The WTA Touris in Hiroshima, Japan and we have a nice price and a solid matchup for VanUytvanck against Flipkens. Van Uytvanck has a 2-1 record over Flipkens on hardcourts with her latest coming this past January on an indoor hardcourt in StPetersburg under similar conditions as this event. Van Uytvanck has one titleunder her belt this season and a few wins will boost her into the top 40 andthat’s where she wants to be. Neither player has played that well on the cementthis season but the edge here must go to Van Uytvanck. This one should be a stroll in the park forthe 25-year old Belgian and Van Uytvanck needs to win a couple of matches inHiroshima in order to get in the top 40 which will activate her sponsor bonuses.

Cash withthe Flash Best Bets suggests you play Alison Van Uytvanck to defeat fellowcountrywoman Kristen Flipkens tonight at 9:00 pm ET.

Chicago Cubs(-138) @ San DiegoPadres (+128) 10:10 pm ET

The Cubs are10-2 over the last 12 JoseQuintana starts and 4-1 when Quintana starts on the road against a teamwith a below .500 record. The Cubs are four games behind the St Louis Cardinalsin the NL Central Standings but hold a two-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewersin the NL Wild Card race. Winning here in San Diego will get them excited fortheir upcoming 10-game homestand that includes Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and theCardinals.

Chicago buried the Padres 10-2 in game one of this series Monday night and did so without infielders Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Addison Russell. All three are listed as day to day for Tuesday night.

San Diego has a 33-39 record at Petco Park and is starting rookie righty Ronald Balonas against a Cubs offense with a .212 ISO and .342 wOBA this season against right-handed pitching. Balonas has allowed less than a bomb per nine innings pitched throughout his brief professional career but that big park and the big-hitting Cubs offense that seems to be getting going is going to make life interesting for the 23-year old righthander.

Cash with theFlash Bests Bets suggests playing the Cubs to beat the Padres on Tuesday.

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6 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

MLB Betting Guide: Monday, August 26, 2019

6 years ago

written by

We’re back on the grind and have seven MLB games on the Monday slate. I won’t be looking at all of them, but I do think we can make some good investments with a couple of MLB games.

We’ll belooking at these investments in terms of “units”. If you aren’t familiar withthis method, think of units as cash. If $100 dollars is your normal wager, thenone unit equals $100 dollars. So, a “one unit” rating would mean I’mrecommending you wager your usual $100 dollar bet and so on. Let’s see what wecan find for Monday!!

St LouisCardinals (+114)vs MilwaukeeBrewers (-124)

Wainright (9-9, 4.51) vs Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64)

Pick: Brewers -124

Wager: Two Units

This is a huge series for both MLB clubs as they are fighting for the National League Central Division title. Both offenses are Top 10 over the past two weeks and the Cardinals enter this series riding a four-game winning streak and hold a 2.5 game lead over the Chicago Cubs with Milwaukee being 4.5 games away from the Cardinals. Milwaukee has played .500 ball over their last 10 games and just saw a three-game winning streak snapped at home by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Wainrighthas been good for the Cardinals but is 3-6 with a 6.64 ERA over 61 inningspitched this season away from Busch Stadium. Wainright has a 1.57 WHIP and his 4.78xFIP suggests maybe Wainright has been unlucky on the road this season andcould see some positive regression. The veteran righty strikes out 8.26 pernine while allowing 3.98 walks and serving up 1.48 bombs per nine inningspitched away from Busch Stadium this season.

Gonzalez has made five starts at Miller Park this season and is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA over 25.1 innings pitched. Gonzalez boasts an elite 1.07 WHIP and his 4.19 xFIP seems to suggest Gonzalez has been unlucky at home and could see some positive regression at some point this season. The veteran lefty whiffs 9.59 per nine innings pitched and allows 3.91 walks and 1.78 home runs allowed at Miller Park this season.

Why Pickthe Brewers over Cardinals?

St Louis is coming into this series on fire and just swept the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium. Wainwright isn’t the bulldog he once was and has allowed 19 earned runs over his last 25.1 innings pitched away from Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are 30-33 on the road and 17-26 as the road underdog.

Gonzalezallows 2.09 bombs per nine at home to right-handed hitters and the Cardinalshave HUGE power from the right-hand side with a .185 ISO and .322 wOBA againstsouthpaws this season. Gonzalez strikes out 11.42 righties per nine inningspitched and the Cards will likely help Gonzalez add to his total with their21.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season.

I saw thefollowing trends that might be helpful to you Monday night.

Brewers are 4-0 in Gonzalez’slast 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 9-1 in Gonzalez’slast 10 home starts.
Brewers are 5-1 in Gonzaleslast 6 starts during game 1 of a series.

Play Milwaukee to beat St Louis in this MLB contest Monday.

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Los AngelesDodgers (-152)vs SanDiego Padres (+142)

May (1-2, 4.26) vs Lauer (6-8, 4.47)

Pick: Padres +142

Wager: Two Units

We have a National League West MLB matchup to consider here and the Dodgers enter this series having dropped two of three to the New York Yankees. The Padres have lost four of their last five but did manage to beat the Boston Red Sox at Petco Park to snap a four-game losing streak. The Dodgers have scored 10 runs over their last five games and San Diego has plated 11 runs over their last five games.

May is arookie and has pitched out of the bullpen with three starts this season. Thesample size is small but May has a 1-1 record with a 5.87 ERA over 7.2 inningsof work away from Dodger Stadium. May allowed five earned runs over those 7.2innings pitched and has a 1.07 WHIP with a 4.26 xFIP that suggests maybe Mayhas been a bit unlucky and could see some positive regression at some pointthis season. Away from the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, May strikes out5.87 per nine with 2.35 walks and allows 1.17 dingers per nine innings pitched.

Lauer hasbeen solid at Petco Park this season with a 3-3 record and a 3.10 ERA alongwith a 1.34 WHIP and a 4.89 xFIP suggesting maybe some regression is headed thesouthpaw’s way at home this season. Lauer has allowed 10 earned runs over hisprevious 21.1 innings pitched and strikes out 6.34 per nine with 2.21 walks and0.89 bombs allowed over his 61 innings pitched at Petco Park this season.

Why pickthe Padres to beat the Dodgers?

Both sideshave struggled to score runs and the Dodgers enter this series coming off a disappointingseries loss to the New York Yankees. The Dodgers aren’t that great of a roadteam and is 31-27 as the road favorite. Lauer has owned the Dodgers over thepast three seasons with a 3-0 record and 0.92 ERA over a span of 19.2 inningspitched. May is a highly touted rookie but struggles on the road. The Padres havea high, 25.6 percent strikeout rate against righties but do have a .189 ISOwith a .313 wOBA against righties and I think that will be enough to win thisgame.

I saw thefollowing trends that could be helpful Monday night;

Padres are 5-1 in Lauer’slast 6 starts vs. Dodgers.

Play two units on the Padres beating the Dodgers on this MLB matchup Monday night.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/14 DFS Pitching Picks: Kershaw Brings Miami Heat

6 years ago

written by

Tuesday begat Wednesday, and based on the quality of pitching available for the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks, I kinda wish we stayed with Tuesday, Gerrit Cole scratch excluded. Save for the Dodgers doing us a favor and pushing Clayton Kershaw back an extra day, this shapes to be a meh-like slate of arms.

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Check me out on Twitter @BCWilliams71

My advice: invest in offense. Lots of offense. There have been worse days filled with mediocre to bad pitching across the board, but Wednesday is all about dart throwing for the most part. Fortunately for you, I’m throwing the darts, so sit back, follow the advice and count the long green that hits your accounts early Thursday morning.

8/14 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at MIA

DK ($11,800) FD ($12,000)

No explanation was given as to why Kershaw was pushed back an extra day, but one guess could be that he went about 100 pitches for only the fifth time this season in his last start. That being said, there will be many who will partake in Kershaw in what should be a feast against Marlins hitting.

Kershaw’s K/9 have fallen to “just’ 9.07, but the combination of a 1.94 BB/9 rate and a matchup against the league’s second-lowest scoring offense is a winning pair. Miami is averaging a mere 3.66 runs per game and are tied with Detroit for the Major League worst in OPS+ (78). Starting Kershaw. who has five starts of at least 46 FanDuel points in his last six starts, will eat into your offense, but this is a layup if you’re looking for pitching to amplify your DFS roster today.

Wade Miley, HOU at CWS

DK ($9,000) FD ($9,200)

Miley hasn’t lost a decision since June 17, having won five straight in a stretch where the Astros have gone 7-1 when he’s on the mound. Over those eight starts, Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one and has produced a 2.21 ERA and .183 OBA since the All-Star Break. If you’re playing an afternoon-only slate, Miley could be the anchor of your staff, as he sports a 2.05 ERA in four daytime starts this season. Never a big strikeout artist, Miley has added two Ks per nine frames this season, going from a pedestrian 5.58 K/9 to a passable 7.55 K/9.

Miley continues to keep the ball on the ground (52.9% ground ball rate) but one of the biggest contributors to his career year has been a sharp reduction in line drive rate. Hitters had a 23.6% LD rate against him last season; those tables have turned to 16.1% this season. With a solid RA9 of 3.25, my bet is on Miley acing the pack.

8/14 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Shane Bieber, CLE vs. BOS

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,700)

Bieber continues to make a play for AL Cy Young consideration, having struck out 37 batters over his last 32 innings, a stretch that also includes a pair of complete games and 1.69 ERA. The Indians will be looking for a similar effort from him after their bullpen has been gassed over the first two games of an offensive-heavy series entering an early start time on Wednesday.

While he certainly belongs in the cash game section, there’s mild concerns about Bieber that puts him in the GPP pack. For starters, the Red Sox lit him up for three homers and six earned runs in his only other start against them on May 29, yet he earned the win despite going five innings in a 14-9 slugfest. Bieber can counter that by displaying his 80:8 K:BB rate over 63 innings of daylight play. Whiffs and control are locks here, but Bieber’s 44.4% hard contact rate is a sign that his recent run could come to a brutal halt, especially with the caliber of bats the Red Sox will bring to the table.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. CIN

DK ($11,000) FD ($11,000)

After Strasburg, the pitching cliff falls. Trust me, you won’t like the landing. He’s looked human over his last two starts after a run that saw him put up at least 46 FanDuel points in four of five starts that included a 74 FD point gem on July 3. Despite the elevated ERA, Strasburg is already +12 in RAR over last season and his 3.9 WAR puts him on pace to approach his career-best 6.4 from 2017.

In what looks like a sign of Strasburg adjusting to age, he’s thrown his fastball under 50% for the first time in his career (49.6%), relying more on his curve (30.2%) than at any other time. Strasburg is whiffing batters at a 29.2% clip, so whatever he’s doing is working. When it comes to his ERA, Strasburg’s 3.28 FIP tells a more accurate story than his actual 3.72 ERA. I’d consider Strasburg in the cash format, but the Reds have the firepower to make him a risk, which is why he falls in the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks rankings.

8/14 DFS Pitching Punt Play

Cal Quantrill, SD vs. TB

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,000)

Since the Padres made him a fixture in the rotation, Quantrill has ripped off a 1.62 ERA in six starts. The early stretch of walks is a distant memory, as he averages just 2.31 BB/9 overall while also holding batters to a .183 OBA since the All-Star Break, a run that has seen Quantrill’s ERA dip to 0.93. He also eclipsed the 100-pitch mark for the first time in his career while throwing seven shutout innings against the Rockies last Thursday.

Quantrill offers just enough strikeout punch (7.33 K/9) and a 2.93 home ERA, a combination that makes him a good low-risk, high-reward option. The Rays are hitting the ball well on the road (+21 in homers), but Quantrill’s recent run will last long enough to slow down Tampa Bay’s methodical lineup.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Hitting Stacks & Picks for August 9

David Jones 6 years ago

written by David Jones

Yes, there is preseason football on tonight, but it’s the kind of football that will impact your Fantasy draft. In other words, stay focused on the diamond, follow the words and numbers below and be ready to make DFS money off the usual 15-game slate. Caring isn’t sharing here, so if there’s a sore pooh or two upset about not getting all 30 teams equally covered, well…um…tough. Them’s the breaks.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!Opposite Day rules apply: we’ll find our bargains at each position before the glorious task of stacking (mmm…stacking) lineups.8/9 DFS Hitting CFrancisco Mejia, SD vs. COLDK ($3,200), FD ($2,300)Hey, if he keeps hitting, then why not keep him in the lineup? Mejia had his third straight multi-hit game on Thursday night and fourth in his last five, pushing his batting average above .260. His slugging percentage barely hovers above .400, but if there’s anything you need to know about catchers is that the pop sometimes is the last thing that develops. What will make Mejia — and his DFS users — smile in glee is that the Rockies are throwing the extended batting practice pitcher that is known as Kyle Freeland, who has given up as many homers as the number of batters he’s struck out (five) in his last two starts (Bonus smile: Right-handed hitters have gone .292/.362/.603 this season against Freeland).8/9 DFS Hitting 1BJose Abreu, CWS vs. OAKDK ($4,000), FD ($3,800)Abreu has rewarded FanDuel users with games of 37.70 and 25.40 points this week as his August OPS of 1.008 is light years from July’s tepid mark of .608. He’s cheap in either format and you’ll also take comfort in knowing his .804 OPS at Guaranteed Rate Field is better than his .782 away from ChiTown. Abreu’s .211 Isolated Power is slightly higher than last season’s, and his current stretch gives him a better than outside chance to finish with 35+ homers. Mike Fiers isn’t pitching in Oakland, which is a very good thing considering his ERA away from the City that M.C. Hammer Built is 4.62. Don’t hurt ’em, Jose (at least not too much).8/9 DFS Hitting 2BJason Kipnis, CLE at MINDK ($4,300), FD ($3,300)Since July 31, Kipnis has five multi-hit games along with three homers and 11 RBI. He’s been banging it over the past two weeks to the tune of .348./.423/.696, harkening back to the good ‘ol days when he was actually a must-own player in that other kind of Fantasy baseball. After a pair of dogs in 2017-18, Kipnis has found some fortune with his BABIP, which stands at .284. His current run is keyed by his hard contact rate of 38.7%, the best of his career. Rookie hurler Devin Smeltzer has been a revelation of sorts for the Twins’ staff, but Indians batters showed him hellfire and brimstone when they jacked four homers off him in a win on June 4.8/9 DFS Hitting SSBo Bichette, TOR vs. NYYDK ($4,300), FD ($3,900)Like the aforementioned Mejia, if it ain’t broke… Bichette made big league history on Thursday when he doubled for a ninth straight game along with taking Domingo German deep in the 12-6 loss to the Yankees. No one should pull Bichette aside and tell him it can’t be that easy, especially when he’s gone .408/.453/.837 in his first 11 games. Obviously, he’s not getting cheated out of his at-bats as Bichette has made either medium or hard contact 91.2% of the time. And yes, please throw lefty J.A. Happ in front of Bichette, who has hit lefties with a 1.476 OPS.8/9 DFS Hitting 3BJose Ramirez, CLE at MINDK ($4,300), FD ($3,300)Uh, oh. Perhaps I’ve tipped my hand on a stack? Maybe, but Ramirez has been a one-man stack over the past week by hitting .400 with a pair of homers, seven RBI and six runs scored. As bad as his numbers looked earlier in the season, this newfound version of Ramirez is well on his way to another 20-20 season. Ramirez has a 47.8% fly ball rate to go along with a 39.1% hard contact rate. You’ll take that combination to the bank against a hurler like Smeltzer.8/9 DFS Hitting OFYordan Alvarez, HOU at BALDK ($5,700), FD ($4,300)Hell yes, I’m paying steep for the right to have Alvarez in my lineup. A longtime friend of mine was witness to Alvarez’s homer on Wednesday and told me he had never heard the ball come off a bat the way that blast did. Considering I’ve known this guy since first grade, I’ll trust him. You really, really want him in FanDuel, where he’s recorded at least 12.50 points in five of his last six games, including a 27.90 and 22.20 performances. Any hitter with a .404 BABIP and 50.4% hard contact rate going against Orioles pitching, in tonight’s case Dylan “Me and 24 homers Allowed and 5.89 ERA at Home” Bundy, is worth every penny.8/9 DFS Hitting OFMike Tauchman, NYY at TORDK ($4,900), FD ($3,400)With a homer on Thursday, Tauchman has four dingers and 13 RBI this month. He’s not an all or nothing hitter, having recorded four multi-hit games in the same span. One would think Tauchman would have a blistering hard contact rate like Alvarez, but his is a surprising 31.7%. Couple that with a 32% fly ball rate, and you’re seeing a hitter making the most of his opportunities. The Blue Jays are starting Sean Reid-Foley, who is beginning to be stretched out as a starter. Reid-Foley has held opponents to a .229 batting average but has walked 14 in 21.2 innings. Seriously, do you really want that kind of a walk rate when facing the Yankees?8/9 DFS Hitting OFAristides Aquino, CIN vs. CHCDK ($3,700), FD ($3,000)Aquino’s homer off Cole Hamels on Thursday night jumped the fence at 118.3 mph, tying him with Pete Alonso and Gary Sanchez for the hardest-hit homer this season. He’s fanned once every three at-bats, but Aquino has produced a .905 OPS in his first 21 at-bats to go along with three homers (and a throw on Thursday that looked Jose Guillen-like with its velocity). Yu Darvish gets the opportunity to deal against the freakish Aquino and while his 71 strikeouts over his past 59.2 innings is a sign the old Darvish is back, all he has to do is ask Hamels what’s it like when you leave one up there for Aquino to lean into.Let’s take it home and stack ’em up, shall we?Top 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: Houston Astros: We touched on Dylan Bundy and his hitter-friendly numbers, which means get your Astros in where you can fit them it. Obviously, Yordan Alvarez will take a good grip of your salary, but that could be countered by going cheap on a speculative pitcher. George Springer ($4,400 at FanDuel) is hitting .368 with a homer and four RBI over the past week, while Yuli Gurriel ($3,500) scored a combined 102.30 FanDuel points in two games against the Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday. Michael Brantley ($4,100) hasn’t homered in the past week but still hit .348 with nine RBI. As hot as Houston’s bats have been, you’ll sacrifice at a position or two in order to make this stack work.Chicago White Sox 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: As mentioned earlier, A’s starter Mike Fiers is suspect on the road, and the White Sox have enough hot bats to strongly consider stacking against him. Start with Jose Abreu (see his work at 1B) and follow up with Eloy Jimenez ($3,100 FanDuel) who looks overdue for a breakout since his return from the DL. James McCann ($2,800) has had a good week with 21.90 and 22.50 points sandwiched between a 15.70 outing. Tim Anderson ($3,000) comes into Friday having put up at least 15.20 points in four of his last six games.New York Yankees 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: The Yankees have hit 19 homers in four games this week and I’d bet on world peace coming before betting against the Yankees going homerless on Friday. Go with Mike Tauchman (see OF) and make room for Gio Urshela ($4,600 Draft Kings), who had two homers and four RBI on Thursday night. If you want to spend a bit more, then go with D.J. LeMahieu ($5,100), who has gone .370-2-6 in the past week. Even Cameron Maybin ($4,600), who racked up three hits on Thursday, is worth throwing into the fray.THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Stacks for Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 12

Daniel Wehr 6 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

Welcome back everyone! I know we have a few “new” guys on the Win Daily staff, as well as a few subscribers. I just wanted to welcome all of you. This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 13-game main slate.

**Please check back this afternoon between 5-6pm EST. Possible updates to lines once starting lineups are released.

New York Yankees

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 7.10 Runs

The Yankees lost two games in a row going into the All-Star break and had only lost two in their previous 18. They are clearly the best team in baseball right now, boasting a 6.5 game lead on the Rays and 9.0 on the Red Sox. We all know how tricky the AL East can be after the break. These teams can close the gap rather quickly given their talents. Look for the Yankees to keep their foot on the gas and truck their way into the post season. Aaron Sanchez carries a 6.16 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 5.57 SIERA into tonight’s game. His splits are identical, holding .a 361 wOBA, .391 OBP, and .451 OBP on the year. Coming out of the break, The Yankees are slashing to a .364 wOBA, .247 ISO, and 126 WRC+. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Mike Leake (SEA): 5.60 Runs

Mike Leake hasn’t been awful this season, carrying a 4.32 ERA, 4.89 FIP, and 4.55 SIERA into tonight’s game. These +4.00 ERA stat lines seem more of the norm this season with the elevated scoring. Leake has identical splits, holding a .330 wOBA, .303 OBP, and .493 SLG through 114. innings pitched. He has the displeasure of facing an Angels team who hold the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. They average 6.87 strikeouts per game on the year. The Angels are slashing .to a 321 wOBA, .191 ISO, and .458 SLG to right handed pitching over a two week span coming out of the break.

Preferred DFS Stacks Build: Mike Trout ($4700 FD|$5300 DK), Shohei Ohtani ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), and Justin Upton ($3500 FD|$3800 DK).

Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 5.60 Runs

Shaun Anderson heads into tonight’s matchup holding a 4.23 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 5.28 SIERA through 55 innings pitched. He has identical splits with a .320 wOBA, .331 OBP, and .417 SLG. I’m really hoping for a healthy Christian Yelich here tonight as he has been experiencing some lower back discomfort on and off this season. The Brewers come out of the break slashing to a .297 wOBA, .223 ISO, and .423 SLG to right handed pitching. The Brewers are only a half game back on the Cubs, who actively seem to be trying to hand the Brewers the division, but they have been having issues of their own. An unhealthy Yelich certainly does not give this lineup a ton of appeal. Look for the Brewers to get it together coming off the break.

Preferred DFS Stacks Build: Christian Yelich ($4800 FD|$5200 DK), Eric Thames ($3200 FD|$4800 DK), Yasmani Grandal ($3500 FD|$4900 DK), and Mike Moustakas ($3900 FD|$4700 DK) if you prefer a full stack on FD.

Honorable DFS Stacks Mentions

San Diego Padres vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (ATL): 4.30 Runs

Preferred Stack: Hunter Renfroe ($3000 FD|$4700 DK), Manny Machado ($3900 FD|$4100 DK), and Manuel Margot ($2600 FD|$3600 DK).

Oakland A’s vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

Preferred Stack: Matt Chapman ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Matt Olson ($3800 FD|$5100 DK), Mark Canha ($2800 FD|$4300 DK), and Ramon Laureano ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Robbie Ray (ARZ): 4.50 Runs

Preferred Stack: Paul Goldschmidt ($3200 FD|$3800 DK), Jose Martinez ($2800 FD|$3500 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($2900 FD|$3700 DK).

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San Diego Padres

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up

8/14 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at MIA

DK ($11,800) FD ($12,000)

Wade Miley, HOU at CWS

DK ($9,000) FD ($9,200)

8/14 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Shane Bieber, CLE vs. BOS

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,700)

Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. CIN

DK ($11,000) FD ($11,000)

8/14 DFS Pitching Punt Play

Cal Quantrill, SD vs. TB

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,000)

New York Yankees

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 7.10 Runs

Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Mike Leake (SEA): 5.60 Runs

Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 5.60 Runs

Honorable DFS Stacks Mentions

San Diego Padres vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (ATL): 4.30 Runs

Oakland A’s vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Robbie Ray (ARZ): 4.50 Runs

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