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PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open at Hawaii

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open at Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weaker (just five of the OWGR Top 20) full field of 140+ golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Cameron Smith (-11 in playoff over Brendan Steele)
  • The course: Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI
    • Par 70 (7,044 yards)
    • Short, traditional course with narrow fairways
    • Scoring varies based on weather, but lots of chances to go low
    • Slower but tricky Bermuda greens
    • Weather factor should be moderate this week (windiest on Thursday)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Fairways Gained, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100) – Webb is top-dog emcee this week and the only player above $11K on DraftKings, but this course, with its tighter fairways and silly little greens, is certainly a prime spot for him. He narrowly missed out on the aforementioned playoff between Cameron Smith and Brendan Steele and finished solo third, and this year he’s the co-favorite to win at 14-1 and the best cash game option out there.

Harris English (DK $10,800) – English isn’t on my cash game radar this week, but he’s coming off his first win since 2013 (the third of his 10-year career) among a tough field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. You can’t argue with the form, and while he hasn’t played well at Waialae before, he’s shown improvement at the venue, ranks second in my overall model, and he makes for an excellent GPP play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,600) – As a rookie, Morikawa notched a T21 last year among stellar company, and his ball-striking and approach game is tailor-made for this golf course. His putting is probably the biggest concern, though his stats on Bermuda seem to be better than other surfaces. I’ll have shares in the 15-20% range – right around the rest of the DFS tournament field.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger seems to be everybody’s “sneaky” play in the top tier this week, which continues to push his projected ownership well above 20% and into the chalky zone in GPPs. I’m comfortable using him because of his ball-striking prowess and how well he’s played in 2020-21, but he’s far from a lock button to me – Berger has  no top 10s in this tournament.

Cameron Smith (DK $9,600) – Usually I don’t write up this many golfers in the top tier, but Smith is the defending champion and really seems to play well here, with three straight top 25s at Waialae (including his win). With so many value options in my player pool under $7,500, there’s a path to rostering Smith in GPPs with one or two other big-name players.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ryan Palmer (DK $9,200) – There’s plenty to like about Palmer’s chances in 2021 at Waialae, especially with his recent form and last year’s T4 at this event. He makes sense for both cash games and GPPs, and it’ll be great if his ownership stays under 20%.

Russell Henley (DK $8,700) – Henley’s course history is awful here, but he’s fourth overall in my model and is the best in the field in SG:APP – the top focus stat this week. I’m not overly interested in GPPs if he gets above 18% or so, especially since his success usually comes down to his putting performance.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,800) – I’ll be mixing in Kisner at about a 15-20% rate in GPPs and hoping he can get hot with the putter – as he usually fares well on Bermuda. There’s really nothing to dislike about Kisner, who’s a solid value in the mid-tier.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – A short course with small greens? Sign me up for a ZJ. I don’t care what he costs because if I have to ask, I can’t afford him. Seriously – Johnson has a couple of Top 10s here and while he’s not exciting, he had a T6 in November at the RSM. A solid cash game target.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $8,100) – He’s a first timer here, but we’ve seen other Sony Open virgins notch Top 10s because of their ball-striking and approach game – so why not the South African? Van Rooyen is 12th in my model and a solid GPP play who I’ll be overweight on compared to the field.

Brian Harman (DK $7,800) – Harman has some excellent results at this venue, including a T4 during the 2017-18 season, and he’s a solid cutmaker who my model loves this week (No. 10 overall). He’s in my player pool and a good play in all formats.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,600) – I love mixing in Keegan into GPPs on courses that require a solid approach game, and while he’s not the best putter in the world, the quirky veteran has shown steady improvement at the Sony Open and seems to be figuring out the greens a little more each year.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Sergio Garcia, Brendan Todd (GPP), Charles Howell (Cash), Marc Leishman, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Tom Hoge (DK $7,300) – I’m not sure when the price on Hoge will come up, but I’m loving the fact that he’s so cheap with his soaring upside on a course like this. He’s only No. 60 in my model, but that’s because of his performance around the greens – which he’s fared well on before (third place finish in 2017 and a T12 last year).

James Hahn (DK $7,300) – If you want a guy with similar upside to Hoge and lower ownership, look no further than Hahn. I may even build a few GPPs starting with both these players.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,200) – Like Zach Johnson, Furyk plays his best on shorter courses with tricky greens, and I’m considering going up to about 40% ownership on this old codger in MMEs. He’s ninth on my model and he won here way back in 1996 – about year before Collin Morikawa was born.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200) – You may have noticed a theme here, as Stanley is another solid ball striker who putts badly but has played well at Waialae in the past (T10 three years ago and 4/5 since 2015). I’d steer clear in cash games but will mix him into GPPs.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,000) – Norlander is popping on my model (eighth overall) and his T9 here last season proves there’s a good reason to include him in your builds. The price is simply way too low this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – I know that Ghim has some issues putting together four good rounds, and his debut here in 2020 was less than spectacular (MC), but if he can best his demons on the short grass, he’ll be a solid value under $7K.

More value golfers to consider: Carlos Ortiz, Matthew NeSmith (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Mark Hubbard, Vaughn Taylor

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – Course history and metrics make Armour the best punt play at or under the arbitrary $6,500 price point. He’s missed three straight cuts but a T8 at the Bermuda Championship in October mean I’ll have a few shares in large-field GPPs.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200) – He’s old and straight off the tee, and he’s notched two Top 15s here in his last five tries (two MCs). I’m comfortable using him at up to 10% in large-field GPP entries where I’m squeezing in stars and scrubs.

Additional punt options: Roger Sloan, Sung Kang, Ted Potter, Chase Seifert

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PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic at Sea Island

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the RSM Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Stronger field than normal for this venue, 156 golfers total
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Tyler Duncan (-19: Beat Webb Simpson in playoff)
  • The course: Sea Island Golf Club (St. Simons island, GA)
  • Seaside: Par 70 (7,005 yards); Plantation: Par 72 (7,060)
  • Lots of scoring – rough isn’t penal and winners post low scores
  • Bermuda greens on resort-style courses
  • Rotation: one round at Plantation and the other at Seaside course
  • “Sea Island Mafia” golfers tend to fare well on their home course
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Ball-Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – I’m still interested in massive shares of Webb (the runaway #1 in my models) for GPPs – even though he’s bound to get popular. I made that mistake last week with DJ (where I ended up fading instead of doubling the field ownership) and I’m not doing it this week at a tournament where he’s dominated. Simpson has been playing well, and we can differentiate our lineups elsewhere with salary surplus and other more low-owned golfers. I’m locking him in in all formats.

Russell Henley (DK $10,100) – It’s easy to forget about Henley (I almost just did) even though he’s had success at Sea Island (with three straight top 10s) and has played well since the restart (9-for-9 with four top 10). He’s also tops in the field for SG:APP, our No. 1 focus stat.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,900) – This course seems to be well suited for Fitzpatrick’s game, though it’s the first time he’s played here. He’s going to hit fairways, make putts and score in the 60s in all four rounds. Maybe he’ll even win and then join the Sea Island Mafia.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – I like how Harman is trending from a safety perspective (top 30 finishes ion four straight, and 11 straight made cuts) and he’s a Sea Island resident with a T4 and a T14 at the RSM Classic. At this price, he’s got excellent top 10 upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,100) – Munoz, who finished third at the RSM last year, is playing pretty sharp golf right now. After finishing T8 in the 2020 FedExCup, he’s only made six straight cuts with four top 25s and a T19 at the Masters last week.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,600) – He loves the venue and feels like an excellent value in this mid-range. He could be a solid core player in cash games or even single- entry GPP.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,100) – Hughes is a little riskier than some of the other guys at this price point, but he won the RSM in 2016 and we know how hot this birdie-maker can get with the flatstick.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Based on the models, Gooch doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he’s excellent across the board and finished T23 here last season, so he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,900) – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play, Pan finished T7 at the Masters last week and has mixed in a T6 with a T13 (in 2016 & ’17) and a MC (2018) at the RSM. Driver isn’t a huge factor here and the price is very affordable.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – Don’t look his way in cash games, but feel free to deploy one of the tour’s best putters in tournaments. He stumbled out of the gate last year with a 71 on the Plantation course (but led the field in SG: P) en route to a T8 finish.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Ian Poulter, Doc Redman (GPP), Zach Johnson, Matthew Wallace, Alex Noren (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Austin Cook (DK $7,500) – I love this $7-8K price range and Cook headlines the value group right in the middle of it. He’s won here (2017), he’s 3-for-3 in made cuts and the podcast guys love him.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – Reavie hits fairways and peppers flagsticks, though his scoring has been a little lackluster since a T3 at the Safeway in September. The T29 at Augusta should give him confidence.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner is on the short list of guys under $7,500 who could notch a win here, and he’ll be out to prove something after not qualifying for the Masters last week.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,300) – After three straight missed cuts at the RSM, Poston finished T14 last season and could be a low-owned GPP play with enough upside to make 2/10 of my linueps.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100) – Norlander will be off most people’s radar, but he’s popping in my mixed models (second overall) and I’m going to have massive shares compared to the field. Norlander withdrew on Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – He’s generating chatter among the WinDaily staff, is third in SG:APP in the field and finished T14 in his debut here last season. Good enough for me to use him in GPPs.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,800) – A brilliant putter who I rode to some solid finishes in the Shriners and at the Houston Open, Kizzire is still very cheap and has struck the ball well lately.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,800) – He let me down at the Masters and cost me a decent chunk of change by relegating a few of my would be 6/6 lineups into also-rans, but I’ll try again since he’s 3-for-3 at the RSM with a T6 in 2015 and T11 in 2018.

More value golfers to consider: Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Tom Hoge (GPP), David Hearn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,400) – Swafford is a member of the Sea Island Mafia and won as recently as the Corales in September. He’s just the type of sub-$7K player I want to target in GPPs to leave a few bucks on the table when I have a little over $7K to spend.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) –He’s notched two Top 10s in three years at the RSM but missed cuts in eight of his last nine tournaments will scare off the masses. A punt play for sure, but not without a “course horse” narrative.

Additional punts: Nick Watney, Chase Seifert, Jonathan Byrd, Jamie Lovemark

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PGA DFS Picks: Vivint Houston Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at Vivint Houston open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 132 Golfers – not many big names
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Lanto Griffin (-14 at different venue: Golf Club of Houston)
  • The course: Memorial Park GC (Houston, TX – Tom Doak redesign)
    • Par 72: 7,432 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Brooks Koepka helped with redesign as PGA player consultant
    • Parkland – grass slopes and contours make it similar to Augusta
    • Second-shot course favoring accuracy/proximity
    • Five Par 5s, Five Par 3s
    • No course history
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – If we’re taking a bombers and birdie-makers approach this week (SG:OTT and BoB% are two of our focus stats), we’ve got to like DJ in this prep for Augusta even though his game has been a bit unpredictable the past year. He’s the field favorite and a guy who can separate himself quickly from the field – in either direction.

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – The course layout and design sets up well for a player like Finau, who’s been pretty consistent as a Top 10-type golfer but has lacked the ability to close. This could be the week he finally breaks through with another PGA Tour win.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,800) – Any course with this many Par 5s should benefit Hovland, who’s excellent off the tee and seems to have worked out some of his late-summer struggles. He also provides a modest discount from the top few golfers.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – The Texas native’s stats off the tee and overall ball-striking have been elite this season, so most of how he finishes depends on his putter. There’s not a course he can’t manage, but the price among the top tier of golfers could keep some folks away – making him a solid GPP play.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – Another golfer with the game to flourish on this course, Im excels on Bermuda surfaces and is the ultimate grinder. If he can make some birdies this week and build some early momentum, he’ll be hard to keep out of the Top 15.

Adam Scott (DK $9,100) – Normally I’d consider Scott a better play in cash games and single-entry GPPs, but he’s making his return from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and is more of a risk to miss the cut than usual.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,600) – I’m always surprised how well Zach Johnson fares on longer courses, and this week is another such venue. There may be better value plays out there, but Johnson’s upside and cut-making consistency are undeniable.

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – Harman projects similarly to ZJ in this price range and has venue been more consistent this season, with eight straight finishes among the Top 40 and a neverending slew of made cuts. He makes for a fine cash game play.

Cameron Davis (DK $8,100) – Consider Davis a poor man’s Dustin Johnson, as he make a ton of birdies and can move the ball off the peg with the best of them. There’s oodles of value in Davis this week, though I imagine he’ll get popular at right around $8K.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,800) – Westwood has resurrected his career with some remarkably steady play this season on the European tour, and he finished T13 at the U.S. Open. I could see Westwood playing well the next couple weeks and smashing value at this bargain price.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,700) – Last week’s playoff loss to Brian Gay may haunt him, but Clark is a dynamic golfer who is playing well and fits the profile for this course. Now’s the time to stay aboard the ship – though we know it can go bad quickly for Wyndham and his bomb-and-gouge approach.

Also consider:  Russell Henley (cash), Jason Day (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, James Hahn (GPP), Stewart Cink, Denny McCarthy (GPP), Erik Van Rooyen, Mackenzie Hughes

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – Continuing with our theme of bombers and birdie-makers, I present the inimitable Sam Burns, who misses a cut once in a while but has Top 10 upside on a course like this. A worthwhile GPP play at a bargain price.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,400) – Speaking of cuts, we’ve seen Wise miss the weekend five times over his last nine tournaments, so I can’t advocate for him in cash games and might steer clear in single-entry. But if he can get in the Top 65 by Friday night, he’s a solid GPP option with Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $7,100) – Schenk is a consistent player tee-to-green who makes for a fine cash game play at just $7,100, but he may be worth considering in all formats on a course that rewards his strength stats – SG on Par 5s and BoB%.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,000) – The price for Straka this week is just way too low given how well he’s capable of playing. The scoring opportunities should be there this week for the Austrian, who can get red hot with the putter.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – NeSmith is another guy who can go low when the putter catches fire, but the price reflects his inconsistent play. With three straight made cuts and an October Top 10 at the Shriners (T8), he’s on my radar this week.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – Looking for “birdies in bunches” this week could lead you to consider McNealy, who excels on Bermuda. I’ll have shares in GPPs.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – I’ve had a hard time handicapping Homa this season, but he’s got the tee game to compete in this field and the price is way too low given his GPP upside.

More value golfers to consider: Keegan Bradley (GPP), Luke List, Beau Hossler, Scott Stallings, Austin Cook (GPP), Tom Hoge, Charles Schwartzel (GPP), Troy Merritt (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Xinjun Zhang (DK $6,500) – He’s disappointed in his past two events, but Xinjun Zhang played well in Houston last season (T4), and the cheap price could make him a solid play despite the different venue.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,400) –Kizzire struggles with accuracy off the tee, but he’s a solid putter who could easily make value if he can hit some fairways this week. I’ll take a shot in a few large-field GPPs.

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,200) – I know Keith Mitchell is bad, but he’s usually pretty good off the tee (the last few tourneys notwithstanding) and he can putt. For damn near minimum salary we can use him in some “studs and scrubs” GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Hudson Swafford (GPP), Justin Harding, Will Gordon, John Huh, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

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PGA

Insight Sheet: 2020 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 3M Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

*This is a terrible field OVERALL and I would highly recommend playing lite. There is a legit chance that one of 15 – 20 golfers win this week and I wouldn’t be surprised. With that said, my player pool will generally be heavy chalk or punts. I’ll have my cash section still but this week feels like you need to really nail the low end guys and miss the landmines up top. Yes, this is a general rule but I feel with the ease of the course and the field, chalk will make it through the cut line. There will always be one surprise or so but for now I want the chalk.*

Players priced between $10,000 and higher

**These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.**

Paul Casey $10,100 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 23%)
Brooks Koepka $11,200 (M2, 9%) – Ownership alone makes him a GPP ONLY play for me
Tony Finau $10,900 (M5, 19%)
Tommy Fleetwood $10,500 (M7, 18%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Bubba Watson $9,900 (M17, 12%) – Coming off a T32 at The Memorial, Watson is sandwiched between chalk three deep on both sides of him on DraftKings. He’s 16th in Tee to Green on comparable courses and and plays really well on the longer par 4s.

Matthew Wolff $9,700 (M19, 17%) – Last years inaugural winner, he placed 22nd last week. The Rocket Mortgage course has been said to comparable to the 2020 3M Open course and he finished 2nd a few weeks back. Does all of his damage right where you need it (OTT & APP)at TPC Twin Cities. He doesn’t make the cash team though because he is a bit inconstant.

Russell Henley $9,200 (M13, 17%) – Back to back made cuts with a T7 at the Workday Charity Open. He did miss the cut here last year but does show well in the comp course model ranking eighth in T2G. Henley checks a lot of boxes and would rank higher if he was a better putter. Luckily putting isn’t the biggest difference maker here.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Erik Van Rooyen $8,800 (M18, 24%) – If you want to make a stand, here is your guy but be careful. Rooyen is elite in terms of off the tee and in his approach. He really struggles in the short game. Like Henley though, that’s not necessarily important. What makes him a good player to move off of if you wish is his inconsistency. On courses that he should dominate, he doesn’t. Im playing him at the moment because, again, he could easily win this week, but he could also miss the cut. Choose your poison.

Luke List $8,400 (M43, 13%) – GPP ONLY play for me, List has everything you want at the 2020 3M Open. A good ball striker that can score points with solid odds. He’s not great with the putter and he can get wild with his swing at times (plenty of hazards). I know thats kind of contradicting the ball striking remark but it’s true. Seems to go on and off at times from one hole to another or one round to another.

Max Homa $8,000 (M10, 11%) – Despite missing three cuts in a row (all on the number I believe) and four out of the last five, Homa is still 45th ranked in the field in strokes gained. That’s a crazy stat and truly shows how weak this field is. Top 25 rank in all the important metrics, this is the week Homa breaks through.

Brain Harman $8,000 (M22, 6%) – I’ve wrote him so many times, these last few tournament with nothing but disappointment in the end. Process over results though, right? His putter is the main culprit to his demise but as a whole its the most varied part of a golfers game. If he can get the ball rolling better on the greens, Harman could not only make the cut but perhaps land in the top 15.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,200

Jhonattan Vegas $7,900 (M9, 12%) – Vegas’ game sets up perfectly for here, which is making higher owned for being a lower priced player. Perhaps better suited as a FRL bet, Vegas does tend to fall off on the weekend. He missed the cut at the Workday but made two top 25 prior.

Sepp Straka $7,900 (M25, 11%) – Since the restart, Straka has made the cut four out of five times. This includes two top 15 finishes including a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic which again is comparable to the 2020 3M open.

Charley Hoffman $7,400 (M34, 10%) – Hoffman is one of the better scorers in the field, which will be needed. Shows up well on comp course model though he did miss the cut last year. Two out of three made cuts since the break, Hoffman feels solid to make the cut and post a possible top 20.

Pat Perez $7,200 (M26, 3%) – Perez is a grinder and can show up from time to time in the top 20. He made the cut at the 3M Open last year (53rd) and made the last two cuts after the restart (T39 & T45). If youre looking for a cheap option without dipping into the 6K, Perez is your man.

Cameron Tringale $7,200 (M50, 5%) – Tringale is another RMC play as he finished T30 a few weeks back. He also made the cut in 2019 finishing 42. A solid ball striker who’s cheap.

Players priced at $7,100 and $7,000

Aaron Wise $7,100 (M55, 4%) – A man that can drive the ball with a solid vegas odds. A man that wins off the tee and approach generally, his recent play leaves something to be desired.

Matthias Schwab $7,000 (M45, 4%) – After touting him last week with a perfect 6/6 cut mark, he of course missed. The Memorial was a hard course and more seasoned players with bigger names also were no match. A top 100 OWGR player, he’s mostly seen on the Euro Tour. I think he bounces back with an easier course and weaker field.

Adam Long $7,000 (M32, 1%) – A man with solid stats across the board who is at his best with his irons and putter. 76th ranked in the worlkd according to DataGolf.com he’s one of the highest ranked in the price range.

Chase Seiffert $7,000 (M11, 10%) – Seiffert might get axed by the end if I think his ownership doesn’t drop. The model has him ranked rather high but it might be a lack of rounds to truly justify his ranking. I’ll have him as I don’t argue with the model I don’t know how much. Proceed with caution at the 2020 3M Open.

Punt Plays $6,900 and below

Matthew NeSmith $6,900 (M16, 2%)
Brice Garnett $6,900 (M36, 2%)
Adam Schenk $6,900 (M33, 4%)
Chesson Hadley $6,900 (M27, 7%)
Hudson Swafford $6,700 (M23, 5%)
Cameron Davis $6,500 (M61, 4%)
Derek Ernst $6,300 (M132, 1%)
Angus Flanagan $6,000 (M91, 1%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max Core Plays

Lucas Gloover $9,400 (M2, 23%)
Harris English $9,000 (M12, 22%)
Doc Redman $8,700 (M8, 23%)
Henrik Norlander $8,600 (M21, 14%)
Ryan Moore $8,100 (M14, 11%)
Troy Merritt $7,500 (M35, 6%)
Richy Werenski $7,400 (M20, 11%)
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 (M4, 3%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

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PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic at PGA National

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Honda Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • The first stop on Florida Swing
  • Full tournament field of 144 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: PGA National (Palm Beach Gardens)
    • 7,125 yards, Par 70 – Tom Fazio design w/multiple Jack Nicklaus renovations
    • Bermuda greens (average speed) and fairways
    • Lots of water (in play on 15 holes), normally features high wind speeds (up to 15-20 MPH)
    • Tough layout (15-17 most difficult stretch known as “Bear Trap”
  • Defending champ: Keith Mitchell (2019)
  • Focus Stat Categories: GIR; Bogey Avoidance; Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Around the Green; SG: Ball Striking, Scrambling; Par 5 scoring; Par 4 efficiency (400-450), Proximity (150-200)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,800, FD $11,700) – Rickie needs to avoid the big number this week, and that probably comes down to his ball-striking – a strength in the past that’s seen diminishing effectiveness thus far in 2020. He’s one of the world’s best putters and he’s a former winner here (2017) who seems to fare well on Florida tracks.

Gary Woodland (DK $10,300, FD$11,300) – Woodlandplayed well last week and now returns home to Florida and his favorite surface –Bermuda. He’s a solid bet to win at 20-1 odds and makes lots of sense for GPPssince he’s only had one Top 5 finish here in four tries. I’ll be starting a fewstars/scrubs teams with Fowler and Woodland.

Justin Rose (DK $9,900, FD $11,400) – The Englishman plays well in wind but has limited experience here. I’m not expecting much ownership but digging deeper shows that he checks the boxes here with his Strokes Gained stats and has had a week to clear his head after a woeful T56 at the Genesis.

Billy Horschel (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Horschel has two MCs here in his last five appearances, which could help keep his ownership down. He’s a grinder who loves Bermuda and the data shows favorable results in his SG categories – which are a huge part of contending here. Like Fowler, he needs to avoid the big number and navigate the Bear Trap without making an “other.”

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood,Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – An’s ball-striking is his biggest strength, and the Bermuda surfaces are a much better fit for him than poa annua. His fate resides in how he performs with the flat stick – which has dictated his previous finishes (fifth in 2018, T36 in 2019). My ownership will be way ahead of the field, even if he gets chalky.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Niemann doesn’t have much course history aside from a tepid T59 finish here last season, but he’s a talented ball-striker who could be this week’s Erik Van Rooyen.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Schwartzel loves to play tough golf courses, and he’s got a Green Jacket to show for it. He’s got a solid track record at PGA National and his overall game has been rounding into form.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,000, FD $10,000) – He’s coming off a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, and conditions there last week should resemble what the golfers are dealing with in Florida a lot more than the West Coast Swing.

Luke List (DK $8,000, FD $9,600) – We’ve talked about some of the ups and downs to List’s career before, and while he’s not cheap this week, price is just one of the factors that could keep his GPP ownership low – the other being an MC here in 2019 after (T10-T52-2 in 2016-2018).

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,600, FD $9,600) – Clark ranks well in Bogey Avoidance and checks most of the boxes this week coming off three straight made cuts. He’s one of my favorite plays under $8K and I’ll be flirting with 50% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Daniel Berger, J.T.Poston, Ian Poulter, Ryan Palmer, Harris English, Russell Knox, Jhonattan Vegas

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Russell Henley (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – Henley’s played better here every year following his MC in 2016 (he won here in 2014) and is coming off a T17 at the Genesis. He’s a decent wind player and has also won at the Sony Open, which is another shorter track that sees its share of wind. Henley is a huge risk but could be turning the thing around after a slew of MCs earlier in the season.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,200, FD $9,100) – He’s got a solid track record at PGA National with a T4 last year and continued improvement each and every time he’s teed it up here (three straight Top 25s in the Honda Classic). He’s about 75-1 but could win here. I’ll be overweight on my GPP ownership and he’s even usable in cash games.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – I really like his chances for a Top 10 this week following a T6 in Puerto Rico, mainly because he hits greens (T14 in GIR this season) and seems poised for a solid debut here.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,000, FD $8,500) – Lee didn’t seem too flummoxed by PGA National in his 2019 debut when he finished T7 with Wyndham Clark, and his stats in GIR and Par 4 scoring make him a great bargain.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Gooch is a cut-making machine this year (10 straight) and he’s fared well at some difficult tracks, including a T10 at Riviera in the Genesis. His T20 last season points to a level of growing comfort at this venue (MC in 2018).

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700, FD $7,800) – Burgoon is my sub-$7K wild card and someone who has navigated the Bear Trap surprisingly well over the years (10 rounds without a bogey). It’s not a catch-all stat, but it’s something to note among the dirt-cheap longshots.

More value golfers forGPPs: Sam Burns, Matt Wallace, Chesson Hadley, Nick Watney, MichaelThompson, Doc Redman, Peter Malnati

Other bargain golfers makingtheir debut at PGA National who could finish among the Top 25: Harry Higgs, Kurt Kitayama,Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy

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PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic at Sea Island

Brandon C. Williams
written by Brandon C. Williams

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re fishing for some finecatches at the RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia!

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PGADFS Course Notes:

  • It’s a full field with 156 golfers playing the Seaside Course and Plantation Course over the first two rounds
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties will play the weekend, making it difficult to get 6-of-6 golfers through the cutline
  • The first two rounds will be played at Seaside and Plantation courses at Sea Island Golf Club.
  • The Seaside Course is a Par 70 and 7,055 yards (Bermuda grass)
  • The Plantation Course is a Par 72 and 7,060 yards (Bermuda grass)
  • Previous winners: Charles Howell III (defending champion), Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes, Kevin Kisner, Robert Streb, Chris Kirk, Tommy Gainey, Ben Crane, Heath Slocum
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Par 4 Scoring, SG: Putting

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,600, FD $11,800) – Simpson finished third here last year and loves the venue. He’s the tourney favorite and my pick for winning the whole thing.

Kevin Kisner (DK $9,800, FD$11,000) – Kisner is the tournament’s all-timeearnings leader with a win here in 2015 among four top-10s in the five times he’splayed here. I’ll be loading up in all formats.

Charles Howell, III (DK $10,400, FD $11,400) – Howell is defending his title and had a top 10 in 2015. He’s worth spending up for and checks all the boxes at this venue.

Billy Horschel (DK $11,000, FD $11,600) – He played here once and finished second in a playoff. I know we faded him last week and he finished T8, and I won’t make that same mistake again.

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – Kucharfinished in the top 15 last week and has racked up five top-25s at RSM. He should contend at this Bermudavenue – where he’s a resident – and is a solid bet to make the cut despitemissing in 2016.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,200, FD $10,800) – Schefflerdoesn’t have any experience here, but that hasn’t mattered much here. Therookie is 6-for-6 with two top-10s and another pair of top-20s. He finished T18at Mayakoba last week.

Also consider: Harris English, Aaron Wise, Adam Hadwin, ZachJohnson

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Austin Cook (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – Cook won here in 2017 and finished T11 here last year with Dominic Bozzelli. He’s got a couple of Top 20s this season mixed in with some MCs. Worth a look in GPPs.

Denny McCarthy (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – He checks a very important box in our focus stats – Birdie-or-Better % – and his talents might not get noticed in this large field. A solid off-the-radar play.

Brian Gay (DK $8,800, FD $10,000) – He has a good feel for the course and its small greens, and he’s a fairway maven with solid course history and good form (6-for-6 this season with two Top 10s among four Top 25s).

Brian Harman (DK $7,900, FD $9,900)– The “other” Brian isone of the local residents dubbed the “Sea Island Mafia,” though none of themhas actually won the thing. Could this be the year? Harman finished T4 twoyears ago and has three top-20s in his first three events this season.

Russell Henley (DK $8,500, FD $9,800) –He’s technically not part of the Sea Island Mafia-like Kuchar, Harman, and ZJ, but he’s one of the UGA alums to notch a top 10 here. In fact – he’s got three top 10s here. His MC in 2018 could keep some folks off him.

ChrisKirk (DK $7,600, FD $9,400) –I’mrooting for Kirk, who played well in his return last week and is the courserecord holder at Plantation with a T4, T4 and a win in three of his last sixhere. He’s perfect at this price point in GPPs, though he could get chalky.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,900, FD $9,900) – Citedfatigue for his mini-slump before the surge in Bermuda. That little bit of restseems to have helped him as he’s now finished runner-up and T33 in his last twostarts. He’s back on track and was one of the hottest golfers on the Korn FerryTour, coming down the stretch last season. Someone that should be much higheron the draft board. 

Also consider: Dylan Fritelli, Russell Knox, VaughnTaylor, Rory Sabbatini, Lanto Griffin

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Brian Stuard (DK $7,400, FD $9,600) – Another Brian! Stuard is sporting monster form right now as he’s made six consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour – something we’ll need this week in such a big field. He’s also racked up four top 30 finishes in that span including a T4 at the Shriners, and he finished 22nd at the 2017 RSM Classic.

Kevin Streelman, (DK$7,400, FD $9,500) – He’s got a checkered history at Sea Island,with just one Top 20 and a couple of missed cuts. Nobody will be on him thisweek and his accuracy should be considered a great strength at this relatively shortcourse. A boom-or-bust GPP play.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200, FD $8,700)– We haven’t heard much from Stanley lately, but he’s 2-for-2here and we need to find some value. Stanley gives us that along with Top 25upside.

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100, $9,200) – Not much form to speak of, but he finished T7 with Kisner and ZJ last year. He’s a longshot to make the Top 10 in consecutive tries here, but don’t count him out.

David Hearn (DK $7,000, FD $9,000) – Hearn’s record at Sea Island is impeccable, and he’s made five of six cuts this season dating back to the Greenbrier, including a T8 at Bermuda. But will he fly under the radar?

Doc Redman (DK $6,600, FD $7,500) – We’ll throw out his MC last week because Mayakoba does not smile on first-timers and give him some edge because of his obvious talent and ball-striking.

More value golfers for GPPs: Adam Schenk, Boo Weekley, PatrickRodgers, Henrik Norlander, Dominic Bozzelli, Sepp Straka, Robert Streb, BrendanSteele, David Lingmerth

The PGA DFS Fades:

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – He finished T18 here in 2015 but hasn’t had much success at Sea Island, and the price drop to $7,300 could make him somewhat popular despite an MC last week. No Top 25s yet this season, and I’m not seeing the upside.  

Kevin Chappell (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – Chappell has played well here in the past, but he still doesn’t look right after returning from his back injury and isn’t quite ready to contend. A lot of folks will be drawn to the value based on his course history, but we can safely avoid him this week.

Rusty’s Sea Island Fade ofthe Week:

Alex Noren (DK $9,300, FD $10,900) – “This wayward traveler maycome from fine Stockholm stock, but his recently packed travel itinerary mayhave his sea legs a little tired after such a busy schedule. The Sea Island Mafiais a welcoming gang of scalawags, but this Swedish fish may not be sweet enoughto notch a Top 10 this week.” – Justin “Rusty” Seastrum

It’s great having my boy “Trusty Rusty” fillingin for Spades – who’s taking the week off after recommending a fade of Billy Horscheland his T8 at the Mayakoba. I’m on board with Rusty’s take on Noren, especiallybecause he hasn’t been very good atthe events that he’s been playing all over the globe – and he’s not worth theprice.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

Webb Simpson($11,600)

Brian Gay($8,800)

Austin Cook($7,800)

Harry Higgs($7,700)

David Hearn ($7,000)

HenrikNorlander ($6,900)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

Webb Simpson($11,600)

Charles HowellIII ($10,400)

Kyle Stanley ($7,200)

Patrick Rodgers($7,000)

Doc Redman($6,900)

Robert Streb ($6,800)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Kevin Kisner ($9,800)

ScottieScheffler ($9,200)

Brian Gay($8,800)

Chris Kirk ($7,600)

Brian Stuard ($7,400)

Peter Uihlein($7,100)

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PGA DFS Picks: The Houston Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, I’m looking at golfers from all the price ranges in the Houston Open to find the right mix and get you six golfers to make the cut and win you some green on Sunday!

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Quick Course Notes:

  • The Houston open has returned (in October) to the PGA Tour, but the schedule change has eliminated a lot of the bigger names from this event. We do have Henrik Stenson in the field, and he’s the favorite.
  • It’s hosted by the Tournament Course at the Golf Club of Houston – which has some penalizing rough and Bermuda greens.
  • No major weather issues this week.
  • Large field (144 golfers) with cut line at Top 65 and ties – so having 6/6 will be a challenge.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS

Russell Henley (DK $10,100, FD $10,500) – Henley is a course horse of the highest order, with 5/5 cuts in the past five years. He’s also made 7/7 cuts since the John Deere Classic. Hopefully he’s not stumped by the longer rough and climate change from spring.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,400, FD $11,000) – The Floridian has lots of great finishes in Houston and is coming off a T18 at the Shriners. A complete golfer without any major flaws who loves the grainy Bermuda.

Pat Perez (DK $9,700, FD $10,600) – Perez is a little expensive for my liking but that’s not enough to get me to fade him in GPPs. He’s a fan of Bermuda, has a T11 in his only appearance here and is coming off a solo 3rd finish in Las Vegas at the Shriners.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,400, FD $10,200) – Munoz went to college at North Texas and he might not draw very high ownership after missing the cut at the Shriner’s in Vegas. But he won at Sanderson Farms a few weeks ago and finished 33rd at the Safeway. It’s a good week and location for a Top 10 rebound for Munoz.

Mid-Range PGA DFS

Kyle Stanley (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Stanley is 3/3 in cuts at this event and is a top-notch ball striker who shouldn’t be flummoxed by the date change or the longer rough. He finished 8th here in 2017.

Sam Ryder (DK $8.800, FD $9,100) – Ryder is a Stetson alum who finished in fifth place finish here as a rookie in 2018, when he had been struggling. Hes got a win under his belt, he clearly likes the venue and he just finished T18 at the Shriners after a couple of missed cuts to start the season.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $8,400, FD $8,800) – Burgoon went to Texas A&M and finished 24th here last season in his debut appearance. He’s a streaky player who can make a lot of birdies, and he’s perfect as a mix-in for GPPs.

Beau Hossler (DK $8,300, FD $9,600) – Another Texas (Longhorn) golfer with solid finishes here (2/2: 39th in 2017; 2nd in 2018), Hossler’s form is decent, his pricing is fair and he’s an exceptional putter – the number one thing I look for in DFS after ball-striking and the correlative Strokes Gained stats.

Value PGA DFS

Robbie Shelton (DK $7,900, $9,300) – The youngster is off to a good start this season and has a good track record on bermuda. He’s a perfect mid-range value option but there’s some risk associated with his ball-striking and lack of experience at this venue.

Brian Gay (DK $7,600, FD $9,100) – He’s my buddy Mark Spada’s favorite under-the-radar DFS golf play and he’s been hotter than a pistol recently. He’s trending up since the start of the season but has thus far just been palatable at the Golf Club of Houston: 3/3 with his best finish as a T26 in 2009. Gay finished 43rd in 2014, his last time here.

Michael Thompson (DK $7,300, FD $8,700) – Thompson loves GC of Houston and is 4/4 in cuts. He’s finished 14, 12 in his last two times here.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,100, $8,300) – Straka is my wild card, and he’s not on many of the “golfers to watch” lists this week because he prefers poa annua greens to bermuda. He’s also making his tournament debut here at GC of Houston and has yet to make a cut this season. But there’s just so much promise to this young Austrian’s game that I’ll mix him into a few lineups at what promises to be very low ownership.

Five more GPP options: Keegan Bradley (DK $9,000, FD $9,800), Luke List (DK $8,500, FD $9,700), Lanto Griffin (DK $8,000, FD $9,500), Richy Werenski (DK $7,700, FD $9,000), Robert Garrigus (DK $6,200, FD $7,000)

The Fades:

Brian Harman (DK $10,600, FD $10,900) – His course record is bad, his price is too high, and his ownership will be high given his current form. No thanks.

Russell Knox (DK $9,200, $10,300) – Knox makes for a great GPP play in certain venues, but he’s expensive, he missed the cut in his only appearance here last season and his T48 at the Shriner’s doesn’t inspire confidence.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Cameron Champ (DK $10,800, FD $11,100) – “He shouldn’t be second in price and he has too many bad rounds.” – Mark “Spades” Spada 

I couldn’t agree more, Spades. Plus, this big hitter will most definitely be finding some of the extra-long rough and he’s not known as a great scrambler.

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