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Rory Mcllroy

Insight Sheet: The Memorial presented by Nationwide

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**

Players priced $10,000 and higher

***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***

Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.

Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.

****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.

Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.

Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.

Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.

Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?

Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.

Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.

Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****

Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for The Memorial. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

NOTE: The PGA DFS prices are pretty soft in the secondary tier, so it should be easy to build teams that look good and have monster upside. Focus on single entry GPPs and low-price MMEs.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller,much stronger tournament field of 133 golfers (including 48 of the world’s top50 players), but more than normal (usually 120) at the Memorial
Secondof two consecutive events being played at Muirfield Village, along with last week’sWorkday Charity Open
Firsttime since 1957 the same course will host consecutive tournament events
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play theweekend (about 49%)
Thecourse: Muirfield Village
7,456 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design
Bentgrass Greens
Rough will be a little longer than last weekand greens will be faster than last week’s event
Wider fairways should still help somelonger hitters
Firestone CC and TPC Sawgrass have winnercorrelation
BrysonDeChambeau (2018 Memorial winner) back in the field after skipping last week,and Tiger Woods is playing for the first time since February
Defending champ: Patrick Cantlay (2019 Memorial:-19)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach;SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Birdie orBetter %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – If the roughgives him fits, he could struggle, but it’s hard to argue with the success he’shad harnessing his newfound distance. He won here in 2018 and could do itagain.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,300) – DJ has six top 20s at the Memorial with aT8 last year, and he’s only three weeks removed from an impressive victory atthe Travelers. I’ll be using him as a low-owned GPP plug-n-play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – Morikawa spent most of Sunday at Muirfield knocking down flagsticks and ended up walking away a victor in a playoff against Justin Thomas. There’s no way we can fade him here.

Patrick Cantlay (DK 9,800) – If we used plenty of Cantlay last week, there’s no reason we shouldn’t go right back to the well after his T7. He’s well-equipped to finish in the Top 5 this week and should be a leaderboard presence come Sunday.

Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – A few late mistakes cost Hovland a chance at victory, but he was right in the mix all week long and remains one of the better T2G players in the tournament, leading the field in SG: Off the Tee.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, RoryMcIlroy (GPP), Webb Simpson (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jon Rahm (DK $9,300) – Rahm is anabsolute steal at $9,300 given his upside, though form and course fit areconcerns. He works in all formats this week and provides one of the bettervalues in the $9K range.

XanderSchauffele (DK $9,200) – Schauffele and Rahm both provide some salary relief from the toptier while maintaining the same upside, so I’ll have some shares. Xander wasquiet lats week but finished with a respectable T14.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – I probably won’t deploy Tiger in cash games, since there are plenty of safer options at this price point, but I can’t count him out in his search for his record 83rd win, especially without the normal distractions of a gallery.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,800) – We got a good look at what Rickie can do when his game comes together in the third round at the Workday (66), and he’s trending up. It’s hard to go all-in but mixing in some GPP shares makes sense.

AbrahamAncer (DK $8,500) – Ancer’s form is excellent (T14-2-T11 coming outof the break) and he actually tops the tour in SG: APP. Add in the soaringfigures at the key efficiency proximity range (150-175 yards) and we’ve got alive one.

MatthewFitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitz shook off his MC at the Travelers and made the cut at the Workday,and the week-to-week changes to the course (faster greens, longer rough) shouldhelp his strengths and set him apart as an even more favorable option.

Jason Day (DK $8,000) – Day had his best tournament since February’s fourth-place finish in Pebble Beach, and the price hasn’t yet come up. A classic risk-reward GPP play with Top 5 (and winning) upside.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,000) – His form is somewhat questionable following a pair of ho-hum finishes (T41-T39) since the uncharacteristic missed cut at the Charles Schwab, but Kuchar is affordable and has had success at Muirfield with a pair of T4s in 2016 and 2017.

Paul Casey (DK $7,900) – Casey is an enormous risk despite still not missing a cut in 2020, but I love him as a low-owned GPP salary saver given his rankings in the WinDaily model.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, DanielBerger, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, KevinStreelman, Doc Redman, Ian Poulter

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – Sabbs comes at a huge discount in this loaded field, and while he’s yet to break through here, he’s not a terrible cash game play.

CameronChamp (DK $7,400) – Champ is at the other end of the spectrum, as he has winning GPPupside but shouldn’t be deployed in cash games.

ShaneLowry (DK $7,200) – He’s 2-for-2 at the Memorial and his game fits this venue. I lovethe price and will be using plenty of Lowry this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,100) – There’s really a ton of value out there in the $7K range, which makes building teams a lot of fun this week. Glover checks all the boxes this week and comes in sporting excellent form, with four straight Top 25s since the restart.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,000) – Wallace is my sleeper play this week and should maintain low ownership. You won’t have to go overboard to stay ahead of the field, and he’s in good position to make the cut.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – Homa missed the cut again last week, but he’s at least apologetic. I’ll be using him again in the hops that he can make some putts, as he finished T37 in his Memorial debut in 2019.

Zach Johnson (DK $6,700) – ZJ is just way too cheap given his cut-making upside, though he’s more of a cash game play. I don’t expect him to win, but a Top 25 could be in the cards.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Cauley has been all over the place here (T9-113-T25-T38 in his last four) and has missed three straight cuts since the Charles Schwab, but I’m using him in a handful of large-field GPPs.

More value golfers forGPPs: Billy Horschel, Adam Hadwin, Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Maverick McNealy,Sepp Straka, Graeme McDowell, Troy Merritt, Bernd Wiesberger

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Jason Dufner (DK $6,500) – He finished T7 last year and won the Memorial in 2017 – selling points for this enigmatic golfer among the bottom tiers.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,300) – The stronger field is a tougher test, but Norlander’s recent form justifies using him in stud-scrub builds.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – I’m not the only one who likes him this week, but Duncan is one of a few solid golfers under $6,500 who could surprise.

Additional punts: Branden Grace, Harry Higgs, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam

Make sure to check out more PGA content over at WinDailySports.com/golf and follow us on twitter @WinDailySports! You can ask us questions in our Expert Chat on Discord free for 3 days!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA Picks: The Travelers Championship DFS

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA Picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Travelers Championship DFS and helping you find some winning teams! DraftKings is offering new users a FREE entry to the Milli Maker by depositing into your account!

The Travelers Championship DFS Course Notes:

Full, stacked tournament field of 152 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: TPC River Highlands
6,841 yards, Par 70 – Pete Dye redesign
Small Bentgrass/Poa Greens
Just two (2) par 5 holes
Bubba Watson is a three-time winner
Defending champ: Chez Reavie
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450; Proximity 125-150 & 150-175; SG: Putting (Poa)

ADDITIONAL NOTE ON DK PRICING: Pricing has gotten considerably more difficult this week, so if you plan on rostering a couple of the 9500 and up golfers, you’re going to need some gems in the $6-7K range.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,200) – Rory’s engine has been idling a bit since returning to action, but he’s always a threat and the enormous price could keep folks off him this week. He’s still third overall in my models and doesn’t need a narrative to win here.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – Thomas sits atop my rankings this week and I’ll be using him in about half of my teams despite a lack of Top Ten finishes at this venue. His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers and Proximity from the 125-175 range mean he’ll be getting plenty of scoring opportunities.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,500) – He’s fresh off a win at the Heritage and has three Top 15s at the Travelers since 2011. Simpson is also popping on my models, ranking second overall between JT and Rory.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800) – The main concern with Cantlay is rust, since he hasn’t played an event since mid-February. He’s sporting two T15 finishes in his two tries at TPC River Highlands in 2018 and 2019.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,600) – Schauffele’s course history is lacking (T14 in 2017 and MC in 2018), and his play at Harbour Town was spotty, so this is more of a “trust the models” tournament play. He’s a more dangerous player when he’s off the radar anyway.

Also consider: BrysonDeChambeau, Jon Rahm (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,100) – Morikawa finished 36th last year in his first try and seems like a good fit for this course. He’s on my radar in both cash and GPP.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,000) – The form is magnificent and he’s sporting some obscenely good numbers with his approaches, but he still hasn’t broken through. I expect Ancer to be popular but I use him a lot and if I didn’t here – and he won – I’d lose my mind.

Paul Casey (DK $8,900) – A true horse for the course, Casey has never finished worse than T17 in five tries here and has four Top 5s. He’s had a couple tough second-place losses (in 2015 and 2018) but the memories can’t be that bad.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Woodland goes through rough stretches but usually rights the ship quickly, and his iron game seems more refined since the break. I’ll take another crack in the hopes that his putter gets hot.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,900) – Niemann looked great last week and this course (where he debuted with a T5 last season) demands of the short irons as well.

Brian Harman (DK $7,600) – Harman sports a third-place finish at River Highlands (2015) and has been inside the top 10 here the past two years. He’s also in the top 30 of my mixed condition model and won’t break the bank at just $7,600.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, JordanSpieth, Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Marc Leishman

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,400) – The results here speak for themselves, and I can’t imagine he’ll be over 10% owned.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,300) – Reavie won here last year and he cracks the Top 60 in my model. He’s got a strong T2G game but makes for a risky GPP play.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – His putting numbers on Bentgrass/Poa are excellent and he’s a solid off-the-radar play with plenty of upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,800) – I’m a little worried about two MCs in two tries here, but he fares well in my models and should be very low-owned. GPP only.

Russell Knox (DK $6,700) – He’s missed six straight cuts dating back to early February but I’ll give him a shot as a value play in 1/10 GPPs for his ballstriking/approach numbers.

More value golfers forGPPs: Corey Conners, Harold Varner, Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Danny Lee, DocRedman, Matthew NeSmith, Stewart Cink

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,500) – I can’t get off playing this guy, who keeps showing up on early leaderboards and in my models. If only he could put together three or four rounds.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – Hoge is cheap, he’s inexplicably ranked fourth overall in my model (between Rory and Cantlay) and he’s tops in the field for Par 4 efficiency (400-450).

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,300) – Grillo has many flaws, the main one being his horrendous putting, but his SG: APP numbers jump off the page.

Adam Long (DK $6,300) – Among the Top 25 in my models, we’ve seen stellar play from Long on occasion, and he finished T21 in his debut here last season.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,200) – Like Grillo and Byeong Hun An, his putting is his fatal flaw. But the ball-striking is amazing. GPP only.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,200) – A super longshot play, Percy might not crack over 1 percent ownership. But the models say he could play well and he’s made 3/3 (initial) cuts here.

Thanks for checking out this article on The Travelers Championship DFS! Make sure to enjoy more Golf DFS info over at WinDailySports.com/Golf. You can also hop into our Expert Discord Chat to discuss your lineups one on one with our DFS pros.

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Range: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL

Austin Harmon 5 years ago

written by Austin Harmon

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour heads to South Carolina as the players face off in the RBC Heritage.

The Basics

Course: Harbour Town Golf Links at the Sea Pines Resort
Par: 71
Length: 7,099 Yards
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass (3,700 sq ft average)
Architect: Pete Dye (1969)
Past five winners: ’19 Pan (-12), ’18 Kodiara (-12), ’17 Bryan (-13), ’16 Grace (-9) and ’15 Furyk (-18)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.

Course Breakdown

The RBC Heritage in many ways is like Colonial the week before. Many holes are narrow (though they have been made wider since 2019), tree lined that limits the big hitters. Greens are small, even smaller than those at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week on average. Low final scores are a bit of a scarcity as four of the last five winners were held to -15 or higher, with the lone exception of Furyk in 2015.

Usually the field isn’t this strong, especially coming off of The Masters the week prior. With the Covid break in the tour, the field at the RBC Heritage is the strongest it’s been in years, possibly ever. The top six golfers in the world (OWGR) and 15/20. This will not be a cake walk.

With the lower than tour average finish, looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring conditions is a great first step. The fairways will be a challenge to land the ball in-between the trees and if there is an errant drive (with the lack of fans) balls may become lost. If the golfers do land the ball in the fairway their approach game has to be on point. These greens are tiny with many of the them being protected by bunkers. Once the golfers have landed on the Bermudagrass greens, putting will be crucual.

Here is a look at the top 10 golfers over the last 12 rounds who have performed well (SG:TOT) with all three conditions being present.

Player Fit

For the RBC Heritage four of the five toughest holes fall in the range of 450 – 500 yards and all are par 4. On the other end, the two easiest holes are in between 500 – 550 and both are par 5. Being able to score when given the opportunity in these ranges will go a long way in ascending the leader board. This is a second shot course, a Pete Dye specialty. While the approach shot will vary from each golfer, on average, they range between 175 – 200 yards.

I know it sounds like common sense but both Birdie or Better and Bogey Avoidance are big pieces of the puzzle. For Draftkings, you have to be able to score points to win. While you want your golfers to finish as high as possible, making the most of the opportunity to score is so important. Last week Patrick Reed finished T7 but was the second highest scoring golfer for the week. Opportunity Gained is a Fantasy National stat and while it cannot be shared with non subscribers, rest assure it is incorporated to my model.

To make it simple, Ball Striking is always king (impart to it combining two main stats). Ball striking take into account both SG:OTT and SG: APP. Normally it would be an even split, but for Harbour Town I’m setting it to 60/40.

Missing the green isn’t a question of if, but when. Golfers need to be able to get up and down when off the green. SG:ARG is a great starting point. Players who do well with scrambling and GIR, will be another set of stats for this week.

Here are the top 10 golfers that perform well with all conditions met over the last 12 rounds.

Final Recap of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL

Wind seems to be manageable at the time of this writing but being closer to the water, you never know. There does seem to be some rain in the forecast though both for Thursday and Saturday. If it looks like there is a possible wave play I’ll add it to the discord come Wednesday night.

As we saw last week, some of the golfers simply looked rusty. While many of the same golfers are teeing it up this week as before, keep a look out for “newcomers”. While the fields have never been as strong, winners tend to come out of no where at Harbour Town GL. Despite the soft pricing, this might be the week to take some shots with the darts.

Course Setup
Average to Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways / Second Shot Course
Bermudagrass Greens (Small in circumference)

Player Efficiencies
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards
Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards

Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Opportunity Gained
DraftKings Scoring

Ball Striking

SG: Around the Green
Scrambling
GIR

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research for the RBC Heritage at Harbourt Town GL. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

Stat Source: Fantasy National GC

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Insight Sheet: Charles Schwab Challenge

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**This reset is different then what we’ve seen before. With this in mind, I like all four of the $10,000 plus guys to a degree and have zero problems rostering any of them. I do however have them ranked as such
McIlroy
JT

Rahm
(Yes the spacing is intentional and no Bryson isn’t on here. DeChambeau ranked the worst of the four so hes getting axed all together on my lineups but again, no real issue overall, just a roster construction)**

Players Priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Sungjae Im $9,300 – Im is simply a machine when it comes to playing and practice. There is no doubt, he’s ready for the tour to resume, as it was reported Im was trying to play in fake tournaments during the break. Im is second in the model and is top 20 in all of the important stats.

Justin Rose $9,000 – Rose is more of a play on history as he won at Colonial Country Club back in 2018. He does everything well, except sometimes he is lacking in DK scoring. At sub 15% ownership, the scoring is the only thing keeps me from locking in Rose as one of my highest owned golfers.

Collin Morikawa $9,100 – If you have been reading my articles at all, you know I’m all about Morikawa. I try to lock him in my core each and every week as he’s simply a cut machine with high upside. His iron game is already elite, but this week he will not be making my core *insert sad face*. While it’s a small sample, Morikawa does not perform all that well on the shorter par 70’s where par 5’s are limited. He will still be in my player pool as I will not miss his next win but not the core.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Gary Woodland $8,800 – Woodland comes in at fourth in my model and his lack of course history (much of the industry go to this week) should keep his ownership sub 15%. Great with a driver out of his hand, Woodland might make my core.

Jason Day $8,300 – As Sicily (Steven) mentioned in his article, Day seems to be the forgotten man this week. Sitting in fifth in the model, Day is both top 30 in fairway play and scoring, which compliments his short game very well. Injury is always a concern, but Day has the talent to win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Shane Lowry $8,600 – Like Day. Lowry is another low owned player. Before everything went down the drain, Lowry was coming off back to back top 30s. At possible sub five percent ownership, he is certainly worth a shot.

Scottie Scheffler $8,400 – Scheffler is no longer a secret and the public has caught up, with possible 15% ownership. Scheffler had three top 30’s coming into THE PLAYERS and finished round one at T8. Ive been a fan of his for a while and was in my core last time out. Scottie can certainly light a score card (in a good way) and despite higher ownership, should be a regular in your lineups.

Tony Finau $8,700 – Speaking of course history, Finau is beast at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Four top 35 in five tries with a second last year. He wasn’t playing his best before the break but Finau has the ability to go low any round and last year showed big hitters can contend as well.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Kevin Na $7,600 – I generally never go back to the well with the most recent winner but Na pops in at number one on the model. His lack of play during the break is a bit concerning but this isnt Na’s first go around. He knows himself the best and maybe the rest will be beneficial. His around the green game is special that few can match on tour. He will be roughly 15% owned but I’ll take my shots.

Byeong Hun An $7,400 – It was between An and Palmer for this spot but An, when on, is hands down better than Palmer. Palmer’s ownership was creeping up as well. An will need his putter to get hot (like usual) but at $7,400 and possible 10% ownership, the play is too enticing to ignore.

Daniel Berger $7,700 – Berger seems to never get the love, and this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge is no exception. With 10% expected ownership I’ll be heavily over weight. Making his appearance in the top 15 of the model, which is lead by his recent play (before the pandemic) and his around the green game.

Russell Knox $7,200 – Knox has been starting to gain some traction in the industry which is a bit surprising with his four missed cuts leading into this week. That said, Knox always plays well here with three top 25 in his last five trips. Still sub 10% ownership allows you to be overweight with a smaller investment.

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 (Punts)

Cameron Davis $6,500 – You might be asking yourself, who? Davis has five starts on the PGA Tour in 2020 with five made cuts. He’s finished top 10 twice (Sony and The Honda) where his approach game carried him. He isn’t safe at all as its a small sample size but Davis ranked eighth in the model this week and number one in around the green stats.

Jimmy Walker $6,700 – Walker is a grinder at the Charles Schwab Challenge with four made cuts and two top 20’s in his last four tries. What’s nice to know is Walker was playing well before the stoppage with two top 25’s leading up to THE PLAYERS.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Charles Schwab Challenge. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Insight Sheet: THE PLAYERS Championship

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock of THE PLAYERS Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. ...

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The Range: THE PLAYERS Championship

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Florida as the players face off at THE PLAYERS Championship.
The Basics
Course: TPC Sawgrass Stadium CoursePar: 72Length: 7,189 yardsGreens: TifEagle Bermuda Fairways: Celebration Bermud...

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Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Invite-only, stacked tournament field of 121 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: Bay Hill
7,454 yards, Par 72 – Dick Wilson design w/Arnold Palmer redesign
TifEagle Bermuda greens (fast) and Celebration Bermuda fairways
Plenty of water (in play on half the holes)
Much easier than PGA National (Three of last five winners at -17 or better)
Defending champ: Francesco Molinari (2019)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 efficiency (450-500), Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); Proximity (200+; Opportunities Gained; Birdie or Better%; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – Rory is the tourneyfavorite and a former API champion who’s been playing some of the best golf ofhis career with six straight Top 5 finishes. The world No. 1 is also 5-for-5 atBay Hill with a sub-70 scoring average in 20 rounds. He’ll obviously bepopular, but I can’t support a fade.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,600,FD $11,600) – Matsuyama has excellent tee-to-green numbers andranks highly in my model despite a lackluster course history that’s missing aTop 5. He’s been playing solid golf lately (five Top 10s in his last 10 starts)and this could be the year he finally breaks through.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,400, FD $11,700) – The bulkier Bryson will be a popular pick this week, but he’s got the game to dominate here and hasn’t missed a cut in three tries – his best finish a solo second coming in 2018. The longer holes are less of a problem now that he’s acquired some extra distance, and he’s notched top 15 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,200, FD $11,400) – He’s likely to be low-owned (terrible course history, MC at the Honda Classic) but is emerging in my mixed model (No. 3 overall after Rory and Hideki) as a golfer to target despite his struggles. Koepka loves playing against the best in the world, and actually struck the ball okay last week but fell victim (like so many others) to a fickle golf course that rattled more than a few cages. The greens here this week will more resemble what golfers face at Augusta and at U.S. Open venues, so I’m buying.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – Reed may struggle with 200+ approaches and long par 3s, but those are the only focus stat categories that give me pause. The rest of his game is a solid fit and he’s notched a Top 10 here (2018) in two appearances (T50 last season). Reed may be a golf villain, but he’s a PGA DFS darling.

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler

Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka should be solid PGA DFS pick this week based on the player efficiencies that come into play at Bay Hill.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Tony Finau (DK $8,900, FD $10,700) – He’s still looking for a victory on a full-field PGA event (we won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 in a playoff and is 0-2 since (losing in stunning fashion to Webb Simpson a month ago in Phoenix). But Finau excels on long Par 4s and 5s, has solid SG: APP and 200+ approach numbers, and could see lower ownership this week since he skipped the Honda Classic.

Henrik Stenson (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – We can’t really call Stenson a sleeper pick, but he’s been largely off the radar since winning the Hero World Challenge in December. A superb ball-striker who checks a lot of the boxes we’re looking for at Bay Hill, he’s had a couple Top 5 finishes here.

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,700, FD $10,300) – Once again, we’re relying on An’s elite ball-striking, and we can take something from his continued improvement at this event. We know that putting well and making the cut are the biggest challenges for him, but he’s good enough tee-to-green to avoid some of the landmines (long rough, water) and get himself into position for the weekend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500, FD $10,200) – I love this guy. He finished second here last year after missing the cut in 2018 and a couple of decent finishes (T27 in 2016, T13 in 2017) the previous two seasons. The models don’t show as much love for Fitzpatrick, but course history and cut-making are drawing me in once again in GPPs.

Tyrell Hatton (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Hatton is quite affordable this week and if he can keep his head on straight, he could relive some of the glory from his Top 5 finish in 2017. He doesn’t excel in one area but overall is the 20th ranked golfer on my models. I like the price, the form, and the upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – Hovland made the cut here last season in his debut (T40) and now has a PGA Tour victory under his belt. He’s also the fourth-ranked golfer in my mixed model and puts himself in a great position to score well. Throw out last week’s MC on a brutal golf course and you get a fine bargain for just $8K on DraftKings.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,700, FD $9,400) – Scheffler is making his debut at Bay Hill but his game suits this course very well, sporting Top 20 marks in Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better, Par 4s (450-500), Par 5s (550-600) and even long Par 3s (200-225). I’ll have shares in all formats, and I’m considering putting him in my single-entry lineup core.

Also consider: Marc Leishman, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Ian Poulter

Just because they are not in the Top 25 on my mixed model, does not mean they won’t fare well in the API. This 26-50 range has plenty of golfers to target.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – We’re getting a sizeable discount on Niemann and he’s one of many attractive golfers in the $6,500 to $7,500 range this week. He’s has a couple of MCs in his last two starts but he ranks highly in my mixed model (No. 11 overall with an emphasis on SG: APP) and this venue suits him well.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,400, FD $9,100) – Moore had a Top 5 here in 2018 and is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his Strokes Gained numbers.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – McNealy turned a few heads last week and has some impressive finishes among his last four tourneys (T11, T27, T5, T5). He’s solid around the greens and has greatly improved his ball-striking in 2020.

Harold Varner (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – A GPP-only play who excels on 200+ yard approaches (No. 1 in the field), Varner has made his last two cuts and should come in well under 10% ownership.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100, FD $8,700) – Ortiz is 2-for-2 at Bay Hill and we could see a breakthrough week for the Mexican native who fares well on long Par 4s. Work him in a few of your builds.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) – Grillo has many flaws, but his SG: APP numbers are good and he’s sixth on the field for Opportunities Gained. He’s hard to trust but is 3-for-3 here (including a T7 in 2017) despite missing the event in 2019.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000, FD $8,000) – Hoge is cheap, he’s ranked just outside the Top 25 in my mixed model, and he’d made five straight cuts before his MC at the Honda last week.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,900, FD $8,600) – Munoz is making his API debut but is popping on my mixed model as the No. 6 golfer overall. If you believe in data, he should make the cut and emerge as a viable Top 25 candidate with Top 10 upside. He’s a risk-reward GPP play I’ll have big shares of this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Another talented young player who can get hot and spike a Top 20 finish despite the cheap price tag, Higgs can help you fit in some elite golfers like Rory and DeChambeau without the risk of the other sub-$7K longshots.

More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell, Corey Conners, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace, Doc Redman

Once we get outside the Top 50, were looking at GPP-only plays with some flaws in their game.

5 years ago 0 comments

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The Range: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Florida as the players face off in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Range: WGC Mexico Championship

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Naucalpan, Mexico as the players face off in the WGC Mexico Championship.

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The Basics

Course: Golf Club De Chapultpec
Par: 71
Length: 7,345 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu (Narrow)
Greens: Poa (Fast) – Though it has been pointed out that the greens play more like Bent Grass according to @JBates_golf and @BPSnow11.

Past five winners: ’19 Johnson (-21), ’18 Mickelson (-16), ’17 Johnson (-14), ’16 Scott (-12), ’15 Johnson (-9). (Only the last three years was it played on the current course)
For a hole by hole breakdown, check out the PGA Tour website here.

Course Introduction

The WGC Mexico Championship is a no cut event that has been held in Naucalpan, Mexico, just north of Mexico City. The golf course has narrow, tree lined fairways. The elevation above sea level (more then a mile above) make the course play shorter then the yardage would indicate. While the golfers that can drive the ball a mile tend to do well, the raise in elevation really brings in the shorter hitters as well.

While this WGC Mexico tournament is no birdie fest, it should play easier then the Genesis Invitational last week. Average winning score is around -15 and with a star studded field (72 players) there should be no short of excitement come Sunday afternoon.

Course Breakdown

With an average score setting laid out this week, let’s look at the golfers who have performed well in Stroked Gained Total over the last 12 rounds.

Ball striking, like most weeks, is a crucial part of the golfer’s game. With fairways and greens being smaller than tour average at the WGC Mexico, we’ll need golfers at the top of their game both off of the tee and approach. Here are the top golfers who have excelled in ball striking over the last 12 rounds.

While the course lists the greens as Poa, the idea that they play more like bent has been mentioned. Here are the top 10 golfers both on Poa and Bent as well as their baseline to begin with.

With all three course conditions applied, here are the top 10 golfers. If last week is any indication, you might see this list near the top of the leader board. At the Genesis Invitational , the top 10 included: eight cut makers, three top fives with both Kuchar (T2) and the winner Adam Scott.

Player Fit

The WGC Mexico has five holes that play extremely tough as they’re Par 4s that are 500+ yards. The elevation should help and you can think of them more as 450 yard Par 4, but having golfers that excel in this range could be a huge help. To narrow it down even further, I’m specifically looking at the 125 – 150 range for proximity.

Opportunity Gained will be factored in once again, from Fantasy National. While I think Bogey Avoidance holds some water at the WGC Mexico Championship, with a no cut event, I’m targeting birdie makers/fantasy point scorers (BOB/DK Points).

Here are the top players with all the combined stats from above.

Final Recap – WGC Mexico Championship

I think looking at golfers that have length on their drive is a solid starting point but I wouldn’t rule out the shorter hitters all together. Perhaps use the distance as a tie breaker. The field is stacked despite some of the top name skipping this week. With that in mind, you’ll see golfers lower in salary then normal but just because they’re cheap doesn’t mean they’re a good play. No cut events are fun, because your roster is never dead but it can often be frustrating as the edge diminishes. I would recommend playing lite this week.

Course Setup
Average scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens (Bent grass feel)

Player Efficiencies
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 yards
BOB
Opportunity Gained

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the WGC Mexico Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stat Source: Fantasy National

5 years ago 0 comments

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Rory Mcllroy

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

The Travelers Championship DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

The Basics

Course Breakdown

Player Fit

Final Recap of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL

Players Priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 (Punts)

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

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The Basics

Course Introduction

Course Breakdown

Player Fit

Final Recap – WGC Mexico Championship

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

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